I'm just gonna hold off a little longer till the Shiller PE Ratio reverts back to its mean at 16.81.
U.S. stocks in free fall
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Yeah, International is getting crushed even worse than US.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 9:44 am As far as I can tell, SPX selloff is driven by Germany DAX plunging 2.3%. I don't know the reason there though.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I m kind of frozen right now, not sure what to do. Does that mean do nothing? I have Apple maybe get some more, or just put more into index and be done ? Or maybe sell some crypto, take peofits and put in index fund? Maybe just do nothinf. Decisions, decisions.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Keenobserver wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 10:19 am I m kind of frozen right now, not sure what to do. Does that mean do nothing? I have Apple maybe get some more, or just put more into index and be done ? Or maybe sell some crypto, take peofits and put in index fund? Maybe just do nothinf. Decisions, decisions.
From my experience, doing nothing was likely the best choice.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Robot Monster wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 10:13 amI'm just gonna hold off a little longer till the Shiller PE Ratio reverts back to its mean at 16.81.
Sarcasm right? Lol
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Thanks. Holding out so far. So glad i rotated out of clean energy and EV into index funds a few months back. Made my life a lot less complicated. Just buy and the market and be done.newyorker wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 10:23 amKeenobserver wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 10:19 am I m kind of frozen right now, not sure what to do. Does that mean do nothing? I have Apple maybe get some more, or just put more into index and be done ? Or maybe sell some crypto, take peofits and put in index fund? Maybe just do nothinf. Decisions, decisions.
From my experience, doing nothing was likely the best choice.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
You stopped your 2k/day DCA already??newyorker wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 10:23 amKeenobserver wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 10:19 am I m kind of frozen right now, not sure what to do. Does that mean do nothing? I have Apple maybe get some more, or just put more into index and be done ? Or maybe sell some crypto, take peofits and put in index fund? Maybe just do nothinf. Decisions, decisions.
From my experience, doing nothing was likely the best choice.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Sell in May and go away?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Strengthening of the US dollar probably isn't helping. UUP ETF is +0.41%.thenextguy wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 10:19 amYeah, International is getting crushed even worse than US.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 9:44 am As far as I can tell, SPX selloff is driven by Germany DAX plunging 2.3%. I don't know the reason there though.
Heavy sarcasm, yes.newyorker wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 10:24 amSarcasm right? LolRobot Monster wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 10:13 amI'm just gonna hold off a little longer till the Shiller PE Ratio reverts back to its mean at 16.81.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I am backing up the truck this week!
Tony
Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Whoa, for once it looks like my 401K contribution will go in on a down day! Woo hoo!
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I got really lucky with the timing this week. I sold a big chunk of UPRO yesterday to pay some bills, and I bought back in today with some new income. Here's hoping things spring right back up!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I don't want to sound like a heckler but I think you're living on the edge if you had to sell a big chunk of UPRO to pay your bills.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
NASDAQ down 2.5%?! What gives. I thought tech crushed earnings last two weeks.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Especially if new income showed up the very next day. Did you not know the new income was coming?Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 10:47 amI don't want to sound like a heckler but I think you're living on the edge if you had to sell a big chunk of UPRO to pay your bills.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I sold some crypto and bought some ETFs this morning. It was time to rebalance anyway.Keenobserver wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 10:19 am I m kind of frozen right now, not sure what to do. Does that mean do nothing? I have Apple maybe get some more, or just put more into index and be done ? Or maybe sell some crypto, take peofits and put in index fund? Maybe just do nothinf. Decisions, decisions.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 10:28 amYou stopped your 2k/day DCA already??newyorker wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 10:23 amKeenobserver wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 10:19 am I m kind of frozen right now, not sure what to do. Does that mean do nothing? I have Apple maybe get some more, or just put more into index and be done ? Or maybe sell some crypto, take peofits and put in index fund? Maybe just do nothinf. Decisions, decisions.
From my experience, doing nothing was likely the best choice.
Nope thats still going on. Actually 2.4k/day now. I meant nothing as in making no change to current plan.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
let's do it. I'm doing something similar.newyorker wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 11:05 amMarseille07 wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 10:28 amYou stopped your 2k/day DCA already??newyorker wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 10:23 amKeenobserver wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 10:19 am I m kind of frozen right now, not sure what to do. Does that mean do nothing? I have Apple maybe get some more, or just put more into index and be done ? Or maybe sell some crypto, take peofits and put in index fund? Maybe just do nothinf. Decisions, decisions.
From my experience, doing nothing was likely the best choice.
Nope thats still going on. Actually 2.4k/day now. I meant nothing as in making no change to current plan.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 11:07 amlet's do it. I'm doing something similar.newyorker wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 11:05 amMarseille07 wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 10:28 amYou stopped your 2k/day DCA already??newyorker wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 10:23 amKeenobserver wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 10:19 am I m kind of frozen right now, not sure what to do. Does that mean do nothing? I have Apple maybe get some more, or just put more into index and be done ? Or maybe sell some crypto, take peofits and put in index fund? Maybe just do nothinf. Decisions, decisions.
From my experience, doing nothing was likely the best choice.
Nope thats still going on. Actually 2.4k/day now. I meant nothing as in making no change to current plan.
Its quite scary but I remind myself that I cant be a chicken anymore.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Stocks fluctuate, that’s what they do…. I’m doing nothing.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Everything was handled automatically! I gathered all of this from notifications that popped up on my phone, informing me after the fact. A debit hit my account yesterday, and a credit hit today. The automation I've set up handled all of the buying and selling on my behalf.HomerJ wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 10:55 amEspecially if new income showed up the very next day. Did you not know the new income was coming?Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 10:47 amI don't want to sound like a heckler but I think you're living on the edge if you had to sell a big chunk of UPRO to pay your bills.
Honestly, aside from the rebalancing and budgeting I do every quarter, I generally don't know what's going on with my accounts. I've set up a system I can trust so I can spend more time focusing on the rest of my life, and it's worked out pretty darn well going on two years now.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
International down more than US! Run!
Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Hmm... okay...cos wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 11:47 amEverything was handled automatically! I gathered all of this from notifications that popped up on my phone, informing me after the fact. A debit hit my account yesterday, and a credit hit today. The automation I've set up handled all of the buying and selling on my behalf.HomerJ wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 10:55 amEspecially if new income showed up the very next day. Did you not know the new income was coming?Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 10:47 amI don't want to sound like a heckler but I think you're living on the edge if you had to sell a big chunk of UPRO to pay your bills.
Honestly, aside from the rebalancing and budgeting I do every quarter, I generally don't know what's going on with my accounts. I've set up a system I can trust so I can spend more time focusing on the rest of my life, and it's worked out pretty darn well going on two years now.
I don't think that using triple-leveraged stock money to pay bills is very good system, but I guess if you're happy with it. Any tax considerations at all?
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
More like buy in May and ride the returns. Remember when others are fearful...
Wealth is not about having a lot of money; it's about having a lot of options.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
The market is freaking out over Yellen's comments on their need to raise interest rates to prevent the economy from "overheating".
Wealth is not about having a lot of money; it's about having a lot of options.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
But wait - Yellen is now Treasury secretary. Seems to me that the Fed (that is, Jay Powell) would be the one making the statement if that were in the cards.
One thing for sure - the market sure is skittish!
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
That might perhaps explain why tech is leading the freakout. But, if interest rates might rise, why is the 10yr Treasury down?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Buying treasuries will raise their price and push down their yield.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 12:27 pmThat might perhaps explain why tech is leading the freakout. But, if interest rates might rise, why is the 10yr Treasury down?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Right now, if you want fixed income to give you any yield, you are forced to buy longer term debt, but if money markets might actually yield something, I would have thought this would make the low rates on long term treasuries less appealng, which would cause a sell off. But obviously this is not happening. Like you say, people are buying these longer term treasuries.rockstar wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 12:29 pmBuying treasuries will raise their price and push down their yield.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 12:27 pmThat might perhaps explain why tech is leading the freakout. But, if interest rates might rise, why is the 10yr Treasury down?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
The ten year is closely related to the equity markets. Usually folks sell equities and buy the ten year.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 12:39 pmRight now, if you want fixed income to give you any yield, you are forced to buy longer term debt, but if money markets might actually yield something, I would have thought this would make the low rates on long term treasuries less appealng, which would cause a sell off. But obviously this is not happening. Like you say, people are buying these longer term treasuries.rockstar wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 12:29 pmBuying treasuries will raise their price and push down their yield.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 12:27 pmThat might perhaps explain why tech is leading the freakout. But, if interest rates might rise, why is the 10yr Treasury down?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
That would explain it! Thanks.rockstar wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 12:48 pmThe ten year is closely related to the equity markets. Usually folks sell equities and buy the ten year.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 12:39 pmRight now, if you want fixed income to give you any yield, you are forced to buy longer term debt, but if money markets might actually yield something, I would have thought this would make the low rates on long term treasuries less appealng, which would cause a sell off. But obviously this is not happening. Like you say, people are buying these longer term treasuries.rockstar wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 12:29 pmBuying treasuries will raise their price and push down their yield.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 12:27 pmThat might perhaps explain why tech is leading the freakout. But, if interest rates might rise, why is the 10yr Treasury down?
I'm finding this whole Yellen thing a little hard to believe. Seems like just yesterday Powell wasn't even thinking about thinking about tightening, that any inflation we see is just transitory, that the easy money is just gonna keep coming, and the Fed is the market's best friend forever.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
The Bloomberg article, "Yellen Says Spending May Spur ‘Modest’ Interest-Rate Rises" raises the possibility people are taking what Yellen said all wrong:
“I don’t think she was making a statement about monetary policy,” said Roberto Perli, a former Fed economist who’s now at Cornerstone Macro LLC. “I’m inclined to read it in terms of longer-term rates -- in which case it’s a fairly innocuous statement.”
link
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
And I’d guess both Yellen and Powell both have only indirect impact on International. Have not seen an explanation for sell off in International yet.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It seems like on a day like today, you really can get the sense that a sizable amount of investors are impatient and/or have unrealistic expectations for their investment returns. Apple trades sideways for a few months and people lose their minds.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
On International - slower than expected Covid recovery?lazynovice wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 1:29 pmAnd I’d guess both Yellen and Powell both have only indirect impact on International. Have not seen an explanation for sell off in International yet.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Sure and very sad news out of India, but what is different today than yesterday or last week?Williams57 wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 1:33 pmOn International - slower than expected Covid recovery?lazynovice wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 1:29 pmAnd I’d guess both Yellen and Powell both have only indirect impact on International. Have not seen an explanation for sell off in International yet.
Nevertheless, it presented us with what appears to be a buying opportunity today.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
"Find a comfortable place to sit. Breathe in... and out."
A Guided Meditation for When the Stock Market Is Dropping - by JL Collins
A Guided Meditation for When the Stock Market Is Dropping - by JL Collins
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It looks like a good old case of European stocks following the US market like little ducks. Glad I sold my position in International a couple months ago.lazynovice wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 1:38 pmSure and very sad news out of India, but what is different today than yesterday or last week?Williams57 wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 1:33 pmOn International - slower than expected Covid recovery?lazynovice wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 1:29 pmAnd I’d guess both Yellen and Powell both have only indirect impact on International. Have not seen an explanation for sell off in International yet.
Nevertheless, it presented us with what appears to be a buying opportunity today.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-ana ... r-20210504
Wealth is not about having a lot of money; it's about having a lot of options.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
??? Today Germany DAX crashed 2.3% and S&P500 & NASDAQ are following later.Visitor76 wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 1:48 pmIt looks like a good old case of European stocks following the US market like little ducks. Glad I sold my position in International a couple months ago.lazynovice wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 1:38 pmSure and very sad news out of India, but what is different today than yesterday or last week?Williams57 wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 1:33 pmOn International - slower than expected Covid recovery?lazynovice wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 1:29 pmAnd I’d guess both Yellen and Powell both have only indirect impact on International. Have not seen an explanation for sell off in International yet.
Nevertheless, it presented us with what appears to be a buying opportunity today.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Do you have a particular reason in mind for why it might be a bad system, or is it more of a gut feeling?
And unfortunately, yes. While buys and sells are infrequent enough that transaction costs remain negligible, they're still frequent enough that I end up with a lot of wash sales come tax time. I've attempted to resolve the problem by buffering my accounts with a bit of margin, but since the securities themselves are already significantly leveraged, that margin buffer is necessarily thin and quickly expended.
I'm not too worried, though. Claiming those losses wouldn't have helped me all that much anyway, and by the time that they are worth worrying about, my accounts will have grown enough that the margin buffer substantially exceeds my expenses.
As for other tax-related issues, the automation I'm using is very good at prioritizing tax lots so when I do realize gains, they're taxed pretty favorably, and besides, I'd rather pay taxes on gains than have nothing to pay taxes on in the first place.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
If you look at the below chart under Europe, it appears the DAX took a dive after 12pm ET US.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 1:50 pm??? Today Germany DAX crashed 2.3% and S&P500 & NASDAQ are following later.Visitor76 wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 1:48 pmIt looks like a good old case of European stocks following the US market like little ducks. Glad I sold my position in International a couple months ago.lazynovice wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 1:38 pmSure and very sad news out of India, but what is different today than yesterday or last week?Williams57 wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 1:33 pmOn International - slower than expected Covid recovery?lazynovice wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 1:29 pm
And I’d guess both Yellen and Powell both have only indirect impact on International. Have not seen an explanation for sell off in International yet.
Nevertheless, it presented us with what appears to be a buying opportunity today.
https://www.marketwatch.com/
Wealth is not about having a lot of money; it's about having a lot of options.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I think that's in CET, not ET US...it's already past 4 pm on that chart.Visitor76 wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 1:55 pmIf you look at the below chart under Europe, it appears the DAX took a dive after 12pm ET US.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 1:50 pm??? Today Germany DAX crashed 2.3% and S&P500 & NASDAQ are following later.Visitor76 wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 1:48 pmIt looks like a good old case of European stocks following the US market like little ducks. Glad I sold my position in International a couple months ago.lazynovice wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 1:38 pmSure and very sad news out of India, but what is different today than yesterday or last week?
Nevertheless, it presented us with what appears to be a buying opportunity today.
https://www.marketwatch.com/
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
My speculation on International sell-off; potential (likelihood) of raising rates which could strengthen the dollar (negative for international) - International got hit harder in the 2018 sell-off as a result of higher interest rates. In addition, slower Covid recovery/fewer vaccinations internationally. U.S. value stocks hanging in there today so far.Williams57 wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 1:33 pmOn International - slower than expected Covid recovery?lazynovice wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 1:29 pmAnd I’d guess both Yellen and Powell both have only indirect impact on International. Have not seen an explanation for sell off in International yet.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
You do you, but I'd be concerned if I were slashing equities to pay bills. You mentioned quarterly rebalancing, which seems to imply you have some fixed income? Why aren't you paying bills out of fixed incomecos wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 1:54 pmDo you have a particular reason in mind for why it might be a bad system, or is it more of a gut feeling?
And unfortunately, yes. While buys and sells are infrequent enough that transaction costs remain negligible, they're still frequent enough that I end up with a lot of wash sales come tax time. I've attempted to resolve the problem by buffering my accounts with a bit of margin, but since the securities themselves are already significantly leveraged, that margin buffer is necessarily thin and quickly expended.
I'm not too worried, though. Claiming those losses wouldn't have helped me all that much anyway, and by the time that they are worth worrying about, my accounts will have grown enough that the margin buffer substantially exceeds my expenses.
As for other tax-related issues, the automation I'm using is very good at prioritizing tax lots so when I do realize gains, they're taxed pretty favorably, and besides, I'd rather pay taxes on gains than have nothing to pay taxes on in the first place.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
If equities are overweighted and you are going to rebalance anyway, why not sell equities?Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 2:20 pmYou do you, but I'd be concerned if I were slashing equities to pay bills. You mentioned quarterly rebalancing, which seems to imply you have some fixed income? Why aren't you paying bills out of fixed incomecos wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 1:54 pmDo you have a particular reason in mind for why it might be a bad system, or is it more of a gut feeling?
And unfortunately, yes. While buys and sells are infrequent enough that transaction costs remain negligible, they're still frequent enough that I end up with a lot of wash sales come tax time. I've attempted to resolve the problem by buffering my accounts with a bit of margin, but since the securities themselves are already significantly leveraged, that margin buffer is necessarily thin and quickly expended.
I'm not too worried, though. Claiming those losses wouldn't have helped me all that much anyway, and by the time that they are worth worrying about, my accounts will have grown enough that the margin buffer substantially exceeds my expenses.
As for other tax-related issues, the automation I'm using is very good at prioritizing tax lots so when I do realize gains, they're taxed pretty favorably, and besides, I'd rather pay taxes on gains than have nothing to pay taxes on in the first place.
I don’t understand selling one day and buying the next though if it is avoidable.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
That use case is totally fine.lazynovice wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 2:26 pmIf equities are overweighted and you are going to rebalance anyway, why not sell equities?Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 2:20 pmYou do you, but I'd be concerned if I were slashing equities to pay bills. You mentioned quarterly rebalancing, which seems to imply you have some fixed income? Why aren't you paying bills out of fixed incomecos wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 1:54 pmDo you have a particular reason in mind for why it might be a bad system, or is it more of a gut feeling?
And unfortunately, yes. While buys and sells are infrequent enough that transaction costs remain negligible, they're still frequent enough that I end up with a lot of wash sales come tax time. I've attempted to resolve the problem by buffering my accounts with a bit of margin, but since the securities themselves are already significantly leveraged, that margin buffer is necessarily thin and quickly expended.
I'm not too worried, though. Claiming those losses wouldn't have helped me all that much anyway, and by the time that they are worth worrying about, my accounts will have grown enough that the margin buffer substantially exceeds my expenses.
As for other tax-related issues, the automation I'm using is very good at prioritizing tax lots so when I do realize gains, they're taxed pretty favorably, and besides, I'd rather pay taxes on gains than have nothing to pay taxes on in the first place.
I don’t understand selling one day and buying the next though if it is avoidable.
As you stated, the original poster's situation didn't sound like rebalancing since they bought equities again.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I see. It will be interesting to see what Europe does tomorrow.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 1:57 pmI think that's in CET, not ET US...it's already past 4 pm on that chart.Visitor76 wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 1:55 pmIf you look at the below chart under Europe, it appears the DAX took a dive after 12pm ET US.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 1:50 pm??? Today Germany DAX crashed 2.3% and S&P500 & NASDAQ are following later.Visitor76 wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 1:48 pmIt looks like a good old case of European stocks following the US market like little ducks. Glad I sold my position in International a couple months ago.lazynovice wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 1:38 pm
Sure and very sad news out of India, but what is different today than yesterday or last week?
Nevertheless, it presented us with what appears to be a buying opportunity today.
https://www.marketwatch.com/
Wealth is not about having a lot of money; it's about having a lot of options.