U.S. stocks in free fall

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watchnerd
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by watchnerd »

What will this do to ARKK?
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Random Musings
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Random Musings »

watchnerd wrote: Sun Mar 28, 2021 9:46 pm What will this do to ARKK?
They will still receive the 0.75% ER they charge, perhaps with less AUM.

RM
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

newyorker wrote: Sun Mar 28, 2021 7:47 pm Stay the course 😭
Yes, this is when we buy the dip. Markets falling is a good thing for DCA peeps.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jarjarM »

drk wrote: Sun Mar 28, 2021 9:06 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Sun Mar 28, 2021 8:39 pm So we either have the start of a contagion or an opportunity. I can work with that, especially after all the gifts I received in the last 20 minutes Friday.
I'm guessing opportunity. It's also the end of the quarter, so maybe we get an interesting week, but it looks like most of his holdings were bubbly hype stocks.
Looks like more than a few banks will be affected by this...
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/29/credit- ... osses.html
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Forester
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Forester »

The 2021-24 Bear Market begins with problems at the periphery (Turkey, hedge funds holding Chinese tech).
Amateur Self-Taught Senior Macro Strategist
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

Forester wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:23 am The 2021-24 Bear Market begins with problems at the periphery (Turkey, hedge funds holding Chinese tech).
Good to know I am about to lose at least 20% of my equity investments.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by sambb »

to the OP - trading halt in 2011 on the way, ok. lot has happened since then, but dont know if this is important to the OP.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Blue456 »

Looks like stocks are not happy about resumed trade via Suez Canal.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by case_of_ennui »

Forester wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:23 am The 2021-24 Bear Market begins with problems at the periphery (Turkey, hedge funds holding Chinese tech).
Forester you need a new avatar photo! :P

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by dukeblue219 »

S&P500 has turned green again today.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Corsair »

Even a fund collapsing Friday can't stop this market.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bog007 »

:shock:
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by drk »

jarjarM wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:05 am Looks like more than a few banks will be affected by this...
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/29/credit- ... osses.html
Just a little indigestion for most, and a mild case of food poisoning for Nomura and Credit Suisse.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jason2459 »

Blue456 wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 12:00 pm Looks like stocks are not happy about resumed trade via Suez Canal.
That was so last week. This week is block trading liquidation.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid »

Hmmm. According to the Bogleheads forum, the market is both soaring and in free fall. Pretty neat trick.
A fool and his money are good for business.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

case_of_ennui wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 12:02 pm
Forester wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:23 am The 2021-24 Bear Market begins with problems at the periphery (Turkey, hedge funds holding Chinese tech).
Forester you need a new avatar photo! :P

Image
:beer :sharebeer :) :P
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by BoogyBogle »

nedsaid wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:05 pm Hmmm. According to the Bogleheads forum, the market is both soaring and in free fall. Pretty neat trick.

I believe that's called a "lost decade" but don't let anyone else know I said that, they don't like hearing that term :wink:
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky »

nedsaid wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:05 pm Hmmm. According to the Bogleheads forum, the market is both soaring and in free fall. Pretty neat trick.
When have Bogleheads ever been wrong? :D
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

Russell 2000 beaten hard, -2.2%.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jason2459 »

Stinky wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:22 pm
nedsaid wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:05 pm Hmmm. According to the Bogleheads forum, the market is both soaring and in free fall. Pretty neat trick.
When have Bogleheads ever been wrong? :D
No one knows nothing :twisted:
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by gonefishing01 »

Still up over .6% from when i bought on Friday afternoon. That blast off into the close was something else.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

So this is a gamified market.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ImUrHuckleberry »

TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:29 am
Forester wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:23 am The 2021-24 Bear Market begins with problems at the periphery (Turkey, hedge funds holding Chinese tech).
Good to know I am about to gain at least 20% on my equity investments.
fixed your response to a Forester prediction.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by abuss368 »

I forgot to back up my truck today!

The day got away.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

ImUrHuckleberry wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:10 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:29 am
Forester wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:23 am The 2021-24 Bear Market begins with problems at the periphery (Turkey, hedge funds holding Chinese tech).
Good to know I am about to gain at least 20% on my equity investments.
fixed your response to a Forester prediction.
Well, neither is for sure. Forester, so far, has always been wrong (what kind of person keeps forecasting after being wrong every single time?), but sooner or later, he'll be right.

But I absolutely know for sure that he is the type of person that will claim that he can predict the future correctly... He's already shown that side of himself.
Last edited by HomerJ on Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CurlyDave »

BoogyBogle wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:19 pm
nedsaid wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:05 pm Hmmm. According to the Bogleheads forum, the market is both soaring and in free fall. Pretty neat trick.

I believe that's called a "lost decade" but don't let anyone else know I said that, they don't like hearing that term :wink:
Somehow I think it takes another 9 years, 364 days to make it a "lost decade".
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

CurlyDave wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:38 pm
BoogyBogle wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:19 pm
nedsaid wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:05 pm Hmmm. According to the Bogleheads forum, the market is both soaring and in free fall. Pretty neat trick.

I believe that's called a "lost decade" but don't let anyone else know I said that, they don't like hearing that term :wink:
Somehow I think it takes another 9 years, 364 days to make it a "lost decade".
I guess I don't get the purpose of making a prediction about returns, one way or the other, for a 10 year time period. But the again, "Lost Decade" does sound cool.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by watchnerd »

HomerJ wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:37 pm (what kind of person keeps forecasting after being wrong every single time?)
Someone having a lark.

That's how I read it.

It cracks me up.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

watchnerd wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:03 pm
HomerJ wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:37 pm (what kind of person keeps forecasting after being wrong every single time?)
Someone having a lark.

That's how I read it.

It cracks me up.
A troll you mean :)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:45 pm
CurlyDave wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:38 pm
BoogyBogle wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:19 pm
nedsaid wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:05 pm Hmmm. According to the Bogleheads forum, the market is both soaring and in free fall. Pretty neat trick.

I believe that's called a "lost decade" but don't let anyone else know I said that, they don't like hearing that term :wink:
Somehow I think it takes another 9 years, 364 days to make it a "lost decade".
I guess I don't get the purpose of making a prediction about returns, one way or the other, for a 10 year time period. But the again, "Lost Decade" does sound cool.
There's no purpose about making a prediction about returns in ANY time period.. That's a driving force here at Bogleheads.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

Let's get this thread back on track. So, the S&P is down a not very interesting -0.24% and this is against the backdrop of: 10yr up, US dollar up, gold down 1.73%, the Russell up 0.75%. This has a reopening trade vibe, doesn't it? I'll also point out stay at home Amazon stock is down, while the reopeners Disney and Vanguard REIT are up.

This might be very exciting insights of mne, but probably more likely just boring and non-actionable, in which case my bad.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

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Robot Monster wrote: Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:57 am Let's get this thread back on track. So, the S&P is down a not very interesting -0.24% and this is against the backdrop of: 10yr up, US dollar up, gold down 1.73%, the Russell up 0.75%. This has a reopening trade vibe, doesn't it? I'll also point out stay at home Amazon stock is down, while the reopeners Disney and Vanguard REIT are up.

This might be very exciting insights of mne, but probably more likely just boring and non-actionable, in which case my bad.
It definitely has a bond yields are up vibe to me.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

watchnerd wrote: Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:17 am
Robot Monster wrote: Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:57 am Let's get this thread back on track. So, the S&P is down a not very interesting -0.24% and this is against the backdrop of: 10yr up, US dollar up, gold down 1.73%, the Russell up 0.75%. This has a reopening trade vibe, doesn't it? I'll also point out stay at home Amazon stock is down, while the reopeners Disney and Vanguard REIT are up.

This might be very exciting insights of mne, but probably more likely just boring and non-actionable, in which case my bad.
It definitely has a bond yields are up vibe to me.
Yes, and I feel like the Nasdaq wants to go higher, it really wants to, but that bond yield vibe is really putting a crimp in its style.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

I'm not so convinced 10Y is causing equities to fall today. Seems rather unrelated, or positively correlated to me.

10Y still way too low and going higher is actually healthy.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by watchnerd »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:34 am I'm not so convinced 10Y is causing equities to fall today. Seems rather unrelated, or positively correlated to me.

10Y still way too low and going higher is actually healthy.
It's the trend that spooks high valuation tech stocks.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

watchnerd wrote: Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:37 am
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:34 am I'm not so convinced 10Y is causing equities to fall today. Seems rather unrelated, or positively correlated to me.

10Y still way too low and going higher is actually healthy.
It's the trend that spooks high valuation tech stocks.
Good. We'll buy tech on the cheap. At least I know I will.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by tj »

Saw this prediction on Yahoo, time to sell because the experts are never right? :oops:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sp-500-c ... 16919.html
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

tj wrote: Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:05 pm Saw this prediction on Yahoo, time to sell because the experts are never right? :oops:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sp-500-c ... 16919.html
So what is that about a 9% annual return over the next 8+ years. Sounds like as good a guess as any. Lower than 1926-2018, but higher than 1957-2018.
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answer ... sp-500.asp
The S&P 500 Index originally began in 1926 as the "composite index" comprised of only 90 stocks. According to historical records, the average annual return since its inception in 1926 through 2018 is approximately 10%–11%. The average annual return since adopting 500 stocks into the index in 1957 through 2018 is roughly 8%.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Keenobserver »

Forester wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:23 am The 2021-24 Bear Market begins with problems at the periphery (Turkey, hedge funds holding Chinese tech).
There is my signal to buy.


Kind of a apprehensive market lately, waiting to drop or breakout. I have been buying and hoping for a good summer ..foolish? Maybe..Brilliant ? Perhaps..ask me later
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

Nikkei red. SPX futures red. 10Y up. Brace for impact.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by watchnerd »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 12:18 am Nikkei red. SPX futures red. 10Y up. Brace for impact.
Are we now in risk off?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

watchnerd wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 12:18 am
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 12:18 am Nikkei red. SPX futures red. 10Y up. Brace for impact.
Are we now in risk off?
I don't think so. If anything, the market is too risk-on.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by APX32 »

Futures are literally flat right now, -0.08% on the S&P.

I know this thread and its soaring counterpart are mainly for fun, but when the futures are down a negligible number and people are “bracing for impact”, what’s going to happen when they’re actually lock limit down? I remember several such occasions.

Or maybe some folks just want to increase their post count and comment even when futures are down -0.0001%. Look out, blood bath tomorrow!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

BoogyBogle wrote: Wed Feb 17, 2021 3:19 pm is this the start of a lost decade where SPY can't get past 400?
Looks like we are almost through that brutal lost decade as SPY closes in on 400.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

TheTimeLord wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 7:47 am
BoogyBogle wrote: Wed Feb 17, 2021 3:19 pm is this the start of a lost decade where SPY can't get past 400?
Looks like we are almost through that brutal lost decade as SPY closes in on 400.
SPY did it, hit a high of $400.67 and closed at $400.64 up $4.31 on the day. The Lost Decade is officially over.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky »

TheTimeLord wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 3:01 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 7:47 am
BoogyBogle wrote: Wed Feb 17, 2021 3:19 pm is this the start of a lost decade where SPY can't get past 400?
Looks like we are almost through that brutal lost decade as SPY closes in on 400.
SPY did it, hit a high of $400.67 and closed at $400.64 up $4.31 on the day. The Lost Decade is officially over.
It looks like the "Lost Decade" began on 2/17/2021, and ended today.

I knew that time would go by faster as I got older. But I never thought I could compress a whole "Decade" into just six weeks. :D
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ThereAreNoGurus »

Forester wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:23 am The 2021-24 Bear Market begins with problems at the periphery (Turkey, hedge funds holding Chinese tech).
Final official prediction. I will not post in this thread again if I am proved mistaken.
viewtopic.php?p=5766473#p5766473

Looks like Forester is not a man of his/her word.

And is it 2030 already????

Forester sock-puppet predicts SPY won't hit 400 until 2030!
viewtopic.php?p=5852645#p5852645

*LOL*
Trade the news and you will lose.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

From Oct 2017, somebody posted this - when SP500 was at 2500 (60% gain since then, not counting dividends)
This market is on it's last legs.
My response (which I've repeated every year since)
Go back and read this entire thread that started in 2011.

And read how many people wrote exactly what you just wrote in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017. People making predictions that the market is about to crash, that odds are high for a crash, that a crash is sure to happen. Over and over and over and over. And then you come along and post the exact the same thing. People have pointing out low expected returns since 2010. We had PhDs claiming 4.5% real going forward in 2010 and 2011 and 2012, etc. and instead we've gotten like 12% real a year.

Yeah, sooner or later the market will crash, but you have no idea what the "odds" are. No one does. You may end up being right. Someone has to be right someday. Someone will be the last one to predict a crash before the actual crash. But that doesn't mean they are smarter than the average bear.
The difference is that poster, after multiple posts of certain doom, stopped posting at some point (maybe came back with a new name?)

Forester just keeps moving the goalposts farther and farther out with each prediction. He's determined to be that "last one to predict a crash before the actual crash".

Well, someone will do it. I guess it can be him, if it will make him happy.
Last edited by HomerJ on Thu Apr 01, 2021 4:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ThereAreNoGurus »

HomerJ wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 4:22 pm
Well, someone will do it. I guess it can be him, if it will make him happy.
Pretty sad goal to have, especially since his posts have been so silly.
Trade the news and you will lose.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

Poor bears. Always getting picked on... :twisted:
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