U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
What will this do to ARKK?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
They will still receive the 0.75% ER they charge, perhaps with less AUM.
RM
I figure the odds be fifty-fifty I just might have something to say. FZ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Looks like more than a few banks will be affected by this...drk wrote: ↑Sun Mar 28, 2021 9:06 pmI'm guessing opportunity. It's also the end of the quarter, so maybe we get an interesting week, but it looks like most of his holdings were bubbly hype stocks.TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Sun Mar 28, 2021 8:39 pm So we either have the start of a contagion or an opportunity. I can work with that, especially after all the gifts I received in the last 20 minutes Friday.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/29/credit- ... osses.html
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
The 2021-24 Bear Market begins with problems at the periphery (Turkey, hedge funds holding Chinese tech).
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Good to know I am about to lose at least 20% of my equity investments.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. |
Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
to the OP - trading halt in 2011 on the way, ok. lot has happened since then, but dont know if this is important to the OP.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Looks like stocks are not happy about resumed trade via Suez Canal.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
S&P500 has turned green again today.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Even a fund collapsing Friday can't stop this market.
All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Don’t let anyone else ruin your portfolio. It’s your portfolio. Ruin it yourself!!!
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Just a little indigestion for most, and a mild case of food poisoning for Nomura and Credit Suisse.jarjarM wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:05 am Looks like more than a few banks will be affected by this...
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/29/credit- ... osses.html
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
That was so last week. This week is block trading liquidation.
"In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long run, it is a weighing machine" ~Benjamin Graham
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Hmmm. According to the Bogleheads forum, the market is both soaring and in free fall. Pretty neat trick.
A fool and his money are good for business.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
When have Bogleheads ever been wrong?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Russell 2000 beaten hard, -2.2%.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
No one knows nothing
"In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long run, it is a weighing machine" ~Benjamin Graham
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Still up over .6% from when i bought on Friday afternoon. That blast off into the close was something else.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
So this is a gamified market.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
fixed your response to a Forester prediction.TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:29 amGood to know I am about to gain at least 20% on my equity investments.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I forgot to back up my truck today!
The day got away.
Tony
The day got away.
Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Well, neither is for sure. Forester, so far, has always been wrong (what kind of person keeps forecasting after being wrong every single time?), but sooner or later, he'll be right.ImUrHuckleberry wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:10 pmfixed your response to a Forester prediction.TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:29 amGood to know I am about to gain at least 20% on my equity investments.
But I absolutely know for sure that he is the type of person that will claim that he can predict the future correctly... He's already shown that side of himself.
Last edited by HomerJ on Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Somehow I think it takes another 9 years, 364 days to make it a "lost decade".BoogyBogle wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:19 pm
I believe that's called a "lost decade" but don't let anyone else know I said that, they don't like hearing that term
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I guess I don't get the purpose of making a prediction about returns, one way or the other, for a 10 year time period. But the again, "Lost Decade" does sound cool.CurlyDave wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:38 pmSomehow I think it takes another 9 years, 364 days to make it a "lost decade".BoogyBogle wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:19 pm
I believe that's called a "lost decade" but don't let anyone else know I said that, they don't like hearing that term
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. |
Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Someone having a lark.
That's how I read it.
It cracks me up.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
A troll you mean
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
There's no purpose about making a prediction about returns in ANY time period.. That's a driving force here at Bogleheads.TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:45 pmI guess I don't get the purpose of making a prediction about returns, one way or the other, for a 10 year time period. But the again, "Lost Decade" does sound cool.CurlyDave wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:38 pmSomehow I think it takes another 9 years, 364 days to make it a "lost decade".BoogyBogle wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:19 pm
I believe that's called a "lost decade" but don't let anyone else know I said that, they don't like hearing that term
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Let's get this thread back on track. So, the S&P is down a not very interesting -0.24% and this is against the backdrop of: 10yr up, US dollar up, gold down 1.73%, the Russell up 0.75%. This has a reopening trade vibe, doesn't it? I'll also point out stay at home Amazon stock is down, while the reopeners Disney and Vanguard REIT are up.
This might be very exciting insights of mne, but probably more likely just boring and non-actionable, in which case my bad.
This might be very exciting insights of mne, but probably more likely just boring and non-actionable, in which case my bad.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It definitely has a bond yields are up vibe to me.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:57 am Let's get this thread back on track. So, the S&P is down a not very interesting -0.24% and this is against the backdrop of: 10yr up, US dollar up, gold down 1.73%, the Russell up 0.75%. This has a reopening trade vibe, doesn't it? I'll also point out stay at home Amazon stock is down, while the reopeners Disney and Vanguard REIT are up.
This might be very exciting insights of mne, but probably more likely just boring and non-actionable, in which case my bad.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Yes, and I feel like the Nasdaq wants to go higher, it really wants to, but that bond yield vibe is really putting a crimp in its style.watchnerd wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:17 amIt definitely has a bond yields are up vibe to me.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:57 am Let's get this thread back on track. So, the S&P is down a not very interesting -0.24% and this is against the backdrop of: 10yr up, US dollar up, gold down 1.73%, the Russell up 0.75%. This has a reopening trade vibe, doesn't it? I'll also point out stay at home Amazon stock is down, while the reopeners Disney and Vanguard REIT are up.
This might be very exciting insights of mne, but probably more likely just boring and non-actionable, in which case my bad.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I'm not so convinced 10Y is causing equities to fall today. Seems rather unrelated, or positively correlated to me.
10Y still way too low and going higher is actually healthy.
10Y still way too low and going higher is actually healthy.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It's the trend that spooks high valuation tech stocks.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:34 am I'm not so convinced 10Y is causing equities to fall today. Seems rather unrelated, or positively correlated to me.
10Y still way too low and going higher is actually healthy.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Good. We'll buy tech on the cheap. At least I know I will.watchnerd wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:37 amIt's the trend that spooks high valuation tech stocks.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:34 am I'm not so convinced 10Y is causing equities to fall today. Seems rather unrelated, or positively correlated to me.
10Y still way too low and going higher is actually healthy.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Saw this prediction on Yahoo, time to sell because the experts are never right?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sp-500-c ... 16919.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sp-500-c ... 16919.html
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
So what is that about a 9% annual return over the next 8+ years. Sounds like as good a guess as any. Lower than 1926-2018, but higher than 1957-2018.tj wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:05 pm Saw this prediction on Yahoo, time to sell because the experts are never right?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sp-500-c ... 16919.html
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answer ... sp-500.asp
The S&P 500 Index originally began in 1926 as the "composite index" comprised of only 90 stocks. According to historical records, the average annual return since its inception in 1926 through 2018 is approximately 10%–11%. The average annual return since adopting 500 stocks into the index in 1957 through 2018 is roughly 8%.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
There is my signal to buy.
Kind of a apprehensive market lately, waiting to drop or breakout. I have been buying and hoping for a good summer ..foolish? Maybe..Brilliant ? Perhaps..ask me later
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Nikkei red. SPX futures red. 10Y up. Brace for impact.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Are we now in risk off?Marseille07 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 12:18 am Nikkei red. SPX futures red. 10Y up. Brace for impact.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I don't think so. If anything, the market is too risk-on.watchnerd wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 12:18 amAre we now in risk off?Marseille07 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 12:18 am Nikkei red. SPX futures red. 10Y up. Brace for impact.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Futures are literally flat right now, -0.08% on the S&P.
I know this thread and its soaring counterpart are mainly for fun, but when the futures are down a negligible number and people are “bracing for impact”, what’s going to happen when they’re actually lock limit down? I remember several such occasions.
Or maybe some folks just want to increase their post count and comment even when futures are down -0.0001%. Look out, blood bath tomorrow!
I know this thread and its soaring counterpart are mainly for fun, but when the futures are down a negligible number and people are “bracing for impact”, what’s going to happen when they’re actually lock limit down? I remember several such occasions.
Or maybe some folks just want to increase their post count and comment even when futures are down -0.0001%. Look out, blood bath tomorrow!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Looks like we are almost through that brutal lost decade as SPY closes in on 400.BoogyBogle wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 3:19 pm is this the start of a lost decade where SPY can't get past 400?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
SPY did it, hit a high of $400.67 and closed at $400.64 up $4.31 on the day. The Lost Decade is officially over.TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Thu Apr 01, 2021 7:47 amLooks like we are almost through that brutal lost decade as SPY closes in on 400.BoogyBogle wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 3:19 pm is this the start of a lost decade where SPY can't get past 400?
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. |
Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It looks like the "Lost Decade" began on 2/17/2021, and ended today.TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Thu Apr 01, 2021 3:01 pmSPY did it, hit a high of $400.67 and closed at $400.64 up $4.31 on the day. The Lost Decade is officially over.TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Thu Apr 01, 2021 7:47 amLooks like we are almost through that brutal lost decade as SPY closes in on 400.BoogyBogle wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 3:19 pm is this the start of a lost decade where SPY can't get past 400?
I knew that time would go by faster as I got older. But I never thought I could compress a whole "Decade" into just six weeks.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
viewtopic.php?p=5766473#p5766473Final official prediction. I will not post in this thread again if I am proved mistaken.
Looks like Forester is not a man of his/her word.
And is it 2030 already????
Forester sock-puppet predicts SPY won't hit 400 until 2030!
viewtopic.php?p=5852645#p5852645
*LOL*
Trade the news and you will lose.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
From Oct 2017, somebody posted this - when SP500 was at 2500 (60% gain since then, not counting dividends)
Forester just keeps moving the goalposts farther and farther out with each prediction. He's determined to be that "last one to predict a crash before the actual crash".
Well, someone will do it. I guess it can be him, if it will make him happy.
My response (which I've repeated every year since)This market is on it's last legs.
The difference is that poster, after multiple posts of certain doom, stopped posting at some point (maybe came back with a new name?)Go back and read this entire thread that started in 2011.
And read how many people wrote exactly what you just wrote in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017. People making predictions that the market is about to crash, that odds are high for a crash, that a crash is sure to happen. Over and over and over and over. And then you come along and post the exact the same thing. People have pointing out low expected returns since 2010. We had PhDs claiming 4.5% real going forward in 2010 and 2011 and 2012, etc. and instead we've gotten like 12% real a year.
Yeah, sooner or later the market will crash, but you have no idea what the "odds" are. No one does. You may end up being right. Someone has to be right someday. Someone will be the last one to predict a crash before the actual crash. But that doesn't mean they are smarter than the average bear.
Forester just keeps moving the goalposts farther and farther out with each prediction. He's determined to be that "last one to predict a crash before the actual crash".
Well, someone will do it. I guess it can be him, if it will make him happy.
Last edited by HomerJ on Thu Apr 01, 2021 4:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Pretty sad goal to have, especially since his posts have been so silly.
Trade the news and you will lose.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Poor bears. Always getting picked on...
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