U.S. stocks in free fall

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rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

burritoLover wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:40 pm Please, please, please...more market carnage so I can buy cheaper.
Yep.

I'm looking for a price point to get back into the market. I wasn't expecting MSFT to drop on what looks like pretty good earnings. But the YoY comps for companies are going to be tough for 2022.
GP813
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by GP813 »

rockstar wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:48 pm
burritoLover wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:40 pm Please, please, please...more market carnage so I can buy cheaper.
Yep.

I'm looking for a price point to get back into the market. I wasn't expecting MSFT to drop on what looks like pretty good earnings. But the YoY comps for companies are going to be tough for 2022.

Good earnings and Azure growth 46%. Cloud business is growing like weeds and we're still in early stages.
pasadena
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by pasadena »

burritoLover wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:40 pm Please, please, please...more market carnage so I can buy cheaper.
I liquidated my VTI position in Roth today. I will buy FSKAX tomorrow with the proceeds, and also have a nice chunk of TLH to do in taxable, so I'm kinda hoping for another red day tomorrow.
rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

GP813 wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:52 pm
rockstar wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:48 pm
burritoLover wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:40 pm Please, please, please...more market carnage so I can buy cheaper.
Yep.

I'm looking for a price point to get back into the market. I wasn't expecting MSFT to drop on what looks like pretty good earnings. But the YoY comps for companies are going to be tough for 2022.

Good earnings and Azure growth 46%. Cloud business is growing like weeds and we're still in early stages.
And it's still down. Price got too bubbly.
Californiastate
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Californiastate »

pasadena wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:54 pm
burritoLover wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:40 pm Please, please, please...more market carnage so I can buy cheaper.
I liquidated my VTI position in Roth today. I will buy FSKAX tomorrow with the proceeds, and also have a nice chunk of TLH to do in taxable, so I'm kinda hoping for another red day tomorrow.
Why did you flip VTI in the Roth?
capran
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by capran »

Atilla wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 2:44 pm Here's my problem with all this: I just retired and need to move my 401K (25-year employee, so it's a bit of money) to TD Ameritrade where my IRAs are kept.

After this big move down, what are the chances the DOW shoots back up to previous levels in a few days while my money is in limbo as it gets moved?

I don't mind staying the course. What I don't want is to take these losses now and miss out on the (potential) rocket ship back up while I'm moving the money. Feh.
If anyone has a crystal ball, with predictive ability, you would be set. That's why everywhere you look you will see a statement about risk and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Depending on how quickly things get moved, you could easily avoid a 10%+ loss, or miss out on a 10%+ gain. It really is impossible to predict! Look at it this way: In an ideal and lucky world, your outgoing money transfer could have been closed out at the close of January 3rd, when the market was $4,796.56, and been placed in the new institution at the January 21 close of 4397.94. And you would be smiling like a Cheshire Cat, having avoided a loss of 398 points or about 8.3%. PS I'm not sure 8.3% is a "big move down" by historical standards. Entering retirement is a difficult time because you know most of your investing additional income dollars is passed. We make about 70k in retirement, which started in 2013-14. We do some aggressive tIRA to Roth conversions (118k this year) which has raised our income taxes to about 26k, so our expenses with taxes paid is 73,628 (3,628 more than our taxable income).
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

rockstar wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:48 pm
burritoLover wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:40 pm Please, please, please...more market carnage so I can buy cheaper.
Yep.

I'm looking for a price point to get back into the market. I wasn't expecting MSFT to drop on what looks like pretty good earnings. But the YoY comps for companies are going to be tough for 2022.
If you got out on 200D MA (or 300D or whatever) then use that to get back in. The point of doing that is to take a -9% hit (near a correction) but dodge a bear market, if we get there.

Getting back in too early would defeat the purpose of going to safety early.
drk
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by drk »

trirunner wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:29 pm why is it silly, could Microsoft be over priced even considering an excellent quarter? May be people are hoping for even better result and bid it up in advance.
Microsoft is an extremely profitable company, with gobs of revenue and free cash flow, customers in every market segment, a relatively unencumbered supply-chain, and no antitrust concerns. Could it be overpriced? Sure, but it's not.
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
pasadena
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by pasadena »

Californiastate wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:59 pm
pasadena wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:54 pm
burritoLover wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:40 pm Please, please, please...more market carnage so I can buy cheaper.
I liquidated my VTI position in Roth today. I will buy FSKAX tomorrow with the proceeds, and also have a nice chunk of TLH to do in taxable, so I'm kinda hoping for another red day tomorrow.
Why did you flip VTI in the Roth?
I just moved my accounts to Fidelity. I have VTI in taxable, so I don't want to have it in Roth in order to simplify TLH.

I already use FSKAX/FTIHX/FXNAX in my 401(k), so after tomorrow, all of my tax-advantaged accounts will use the Fidelity funds, while I will keep VTI and VXUS in taxable (and whatever other ETF I choose as TLH partner for VTI).

This was a planned move - I wanted to do it yesterday, but my cost basis info hadn't moved over yet and I was too lazy to enter it myself. It showed up today so I sold today.
carminered2019
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by carminered2019 »

GP813 wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:52 pm
rockstar wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:48 pm
burritoLover wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:40 pm Please, please, please...more market carnage so I can buy cheaper.
Yep.

I'm looking for a price point to get back into the market. I wasn't expecting MSFT to drop on what looks like pretty good earnings. But the YoY comps for companies are going to be tough for 2022.

Good earnings and Azure growth 46%. Cloud business is growing like weeds and we're still in early stages.
I might get a big chunk into MSFT next couple days but this time it will be in my IRA. I already got over 1,200 shares I kept the last 15 years in taxable.
newyorker
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by newyorker »

It is dropping like crazy in after hour market
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mrspock
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by mrspock »

This is almost comical. It reminds me of waaaaaay back in 2020 when the outcome was so obvious and predictable if anyone bothered to understand history. Same deal now.

Here's how the weighing machine is going (since people are too concerned about watching the market moves vs. actual earnings data):

MSFT - Earnings beat
3M - Earnings beat
Verizon - Beats
Texas Instruments - Beats
Nvidia - Goto BestBuy....go try to find a card, they can't make these things fast enough (Crypto, AI etc).
APPL - Expected to post historically high earnings tomorrow

... and on and on.

You can't even order a car right now without waiting months, savings rates are high, wages are increasing, the economy is booming, and the fed pumped in billions into the economy. If we hit -15% or -25%, this is going to be like taking candy from a baby.... I almost feel guilty.

People were in similar denial in 2020, and it was only after successive earnings seasons where bit by bit the narrative of the pandemic causing a prolonged recession began to fall apart -- ultimately the bears were trampled by the bulls. This time it's interest rate hikes and inflation.... let us see how the weighing goes this time!
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peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

sureshoe wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:17 pm
peskypesky wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 2:31 pm
sureshoe wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 2:25 pm
peskypesky wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 1:10 pm
sureshoe wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:54 am
First - in the case of the stock market, I KNOW I'm going to get smacked in the face, so I wear a helmet (bonds/AA/etc.) But once I'm hit, I can't undo it. I think the response you're seeing is "so what". If "this isn't good", so what? In 2009, the response was to buy in more. In the Covid Crash, the response was to buy in more.

This pullback is nothing. The market is only down 5-6% over the last 90 days. It's only down 6-7% in the last 30 days. The market is up 15%+ over the last year. We had ~30% drop over 30 days not too long ago. I think a lot of people have been spoiled by 20% annualized returns.
I guess some people are ok with being hit in the face with a hammer.
I think the analogy loses steam and distracts from anything constructive.

If the market losses are serious to you, then what's your recommendation that is actually actionable?
And I don't think your original comments were constructive. And I think the analogy holds steam.
Ok, fine, my comments weren't constructive.

What's your recommendation that is actually actionable?
I'm not a certified financial advisor, so I don't give investing advice.
Last edited by peskypesky on Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:04 pm
rockstar wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:48 pm
burritoLover wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:40 pm Please, please, please...more market carnage so I can buy cheaper.
Yep.

I'm looking for a price point to get back into the market. I wasn't expecting MSFT to drop on what looks like pretty good earnings. But the YoY comps for companies are going to be tough for 2022.
If you got out on 200D MA (or 300D or whatever) then use that to get back in. The point of doing that is to take a -9% hit (near a correction) but dodge a bear market, if we get there.

Getting back in too early would defeat the purpose of going to safety early.
I like to get back in at a much more realistic valuation. Sure the market can drop further after getting back in. But napkin math with reasonable PEs should get me to returns that I like. For example, I know that the S&P 500 at a starting PE of 30x is likely to provide me a lower return than one at 20x. Even if it drops past the 20x valuation, I know that I'm better off than starting at 30x. I doubt we'll get to 20x. But I'm hoping for 22x to start buying back in. Of course, if it starts to rebound strongly over a couple of days, I'll humbly accept that I screwed up and pay more than I sold for initially. I don't want to get burnt by pride.

If I buy back in at the 200 day, then I'm pretty much following the "I screwed up" path anyway. It's my fallback, so that I don't spend too much time out of the market.
z3r0c00l
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by z3r0c00l »

I am calling nonsense on all the doom and gloom. How about Pfizer at a P/E of 15 with a 3% dividend yield? Or the absurdity of Verizon at P/E of 10 with 4.8% dividend.
70% Global Stocks / 30% Bonds
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

rockstar wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:14 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:04 pm
rockstar wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:48 pm
burritoLover wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:40 pm Please, please, please...more market carnage so I can buy cheaper.
Yep.

I'm looking for a price point to get back into the market. I wasn't expecting MSFT to drop on what looks like pretty good earnings. But the YoY comps for companies are going to be tough for 2022.
If you got out on 200D MA (or 300D or whatever) then use that to get back in. The point of doing that is to take a -9% hit (near a correction) but dodge a bear market, if we get there.

Getting back in too early would defeat the purpose of going to safety early.
I like to get back in at a much more realistic valuation. Sure the market can drop further after getting back in. But napkin math with reasonable PEs should get me to returns that I like. For example, I know that the S&P 500 at a starting PE of 30x is likely to provide me a lower return than one at 20x. Even if it drops past the 20x valuation, I know that I'm better off than starting at 30x. I doubt we'll get to 20x. But I'm hoping for 22x to start buying back in. Of course, if it starts to rebound strongly over a couple of days, I'll humbly accept that I screwed up and pay more than I sold for initially. I don't want to get burnt by pride.

If I buy back in at the 200 day, then I'm pretty much following the "I screwed up" path anyway. It's my fallback, so that I don't spend too much time out of the market.
Personally I am not a big fan of using valuations to time the market. Good luck to you though :beer
000
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

CurlyDave wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:18 am
HomerJ wrote: Mon Jan 24, 2022 5:00 pm
...I'm curious what Curly's plan is... Just wing it? See how he feels day-to-day? Or does he have a plan with entry and exit points?
Thank you. You are one tough commentator, and that helps me. It forces me to clarify my thoughts.

Here I was thinking I had done pretty well, beating BND by 9x over two years without taking on excessive risk. But you are right, I need a re-entry plan. I had entry and exit points but now that part has run its course and I am left holding a thick stack of cash. There are a lot of worse things that could happen to a guy, but now it is time to build on results so far.

Of course, the easy way would be to just buy BND on Tuesday and call it a day.

But YOLO, and I think I will just wing it for a few days. If QQQ goes up by 5% I will probably buy back in. Down another 10% and I will buy back in while declaring victory. No promises either way, except I will tell what I have done.

Homer: what do you think the next move should be?
So if you sell at -15%, then buy at -10.75% (effectively a 19.25% loss), then what? Put another stop loss order in? Now if drops 15% again do you sell for an effective 31.36% loss?

That doesn't sound anything like bonds to me.

If you're skittish enough to need a stop to be invested in something then replacing it with bonds once the successful speculation seems to have run its course might be prudent..... Perhaps a nice chunk of SCHP or LQDI is in your future.
000
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

Whakamole wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 1:11 pm I don't remember this much intraday dip buying in earlier crashes - it's happened two days in a row. Is this common?
PPT hard at work. :mrgreen:
rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

000 wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:20 pm
CurlyDave wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:18 am
HomerJ wrote: Mon Jan 24, 2022 5:00 pm
...I'm curious what Curly's plan is... Just wing it? See how he feels day-to-day? Or does he have a plan with entry and exit points?
Thank you. You are one tough commentator, and that helps me. It forces me to clarify my thoughts.

Here I was thinking I had done pretty well, beating BND by 9x over two years without taking on excessive risk. But you are right, I need a re-entry plan. I had entry and exit points but now that part has run its course and I am left holding a thick stack of cash. There are a lot of worse things that could happen to a guy, but now it is time to build on results so far.

Of course, the easy way would be to just buy BND on Tuesday and call it a day.

But YOLO, and I think I will just wing it for a few days. If QQQ goes up by 5% I will probably buy back in. Down another 10% and I will buy back in while declaring victory. No promises either way, except I will tell what I have done.

Homer: what do you think the next move should be?
So if you sell at -15%, then buy at -10.75% (effectively a 19.25% loss), then what? Put another stop loss order in? Now if drops 15% again do you sell for an effective 31.36% loss?

That doesn't sound anything like bonds to me.

If you're skittish enough to need a stop to be invested in something then replacing it with bonds once the successful speculation seems to have run its course might be prudent..... Perhaps a nice chunk of SCHP or LQDI is in your future.
The problem with stop losses are flash crashes. I remember sitting at a bar and grill and having lunch. The market tanked a ridiculous amount for a very brief moment. And I saw lots of people around me panicking as their stop losses got executed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_flash_crash

I'm not sure if these can't happen again.

Of course, we just saw the market move 5% in one day. Better to have to log on and do the selling then be hit with one of these events. It's a horrible way to lose net worth.
rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:17 pm
rockstar wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:14 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:04 pm
rockstar wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:48 pm
burritoLover wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:40 pm Please, please, please...more market carnage so I can buy cheaper.
Yep.

I'm looking for a price point to get back into the market. I wasn't expecting MSFT to drop on what looks like pretty good earnings. But the YoY comps for companies are going to be tough for 2022.
If you got out on 200D MA (or 300D or whatever) then use that to get back in. The point of doing that is to take a -9% hit (near a correction) but dodge a bear market, if we get there.

Getting back in too early would defeat the purpose of going to safety early.
I like to get back in at a much more realistic valuation. Sure the market can drop further after getting back in. But napkin math with reasonable PEs should get me to returns that I like. For example, I know that the S&P 500 at a starting PE of 30x is likely to provide me a lower return than one at 20x. Even if it drops past the 20x valuation, I know that I'm better off than starting at 30x. I doubt we'll get to 20x. But I'm hoping for 22x to start buying back in. Of course, if it starts to rebound strongly over a couple of days, I'll humbly accept that I screwed up and pay more than I sold for initially. I don't want to get burnt by pride.

If I buy back in at the 200 day, then I'm pretty much following the "I screwed up" path anyway. It's my fallback, so that I don't spend too much time out of the market.
Personally I am not a big fan of using valuations to time the market. Good luck to you though :beer
I'd rather buy and hold. But I'm still burnt by experiencing the lost decade and 2008. The drop in March 2020 didn't really bother me that much. I did follow this plan, and I was happy with the results.
000
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

rockstar wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:28 pm The problem with stop losses are flash crashes. I remember sitting at a bar and grill and having lunch. The market tanked a ridiculous amount for a very brief moment. And I saw lots of people around me panicking as their stop losses got executed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_flash_crash

I'm not sure if these can't happen again.

Of course, we just saw the market move 5% in one day. Better to have to log on and do the selling then be hit with one of these events. It's a horrible way to lose net worth.
Also known as stop profit orders. 8-)
squirm
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by squirm »

The fed is the big headwind for expansion of multiples for now. With multiples with what they are now, everything has to be just perfect.

This is the first time in recent history that i remember the fed tightening due to inflation being this high. It will be interesting to see how they handle it especially with such a large balance sheet.
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fetch5482
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by fetch5482 »

gas_balloon wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:05 am We all have predictive capabilities. The question is just how much of it is usually correct🤣
Like yesterday, I'm going to predict again today that S&P500 and/or VTI will end in positive territory by close.
Alas, my 1-day winning streak in predicting the market accurately has ended 🤷🤐
(AGE minus 23%) Bonds | 5% REITs | Balance 80% US (75/25 TSM/SCV) + 20% International (80/20 Developed/Emerging)
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MortgageOnBlack
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MortgageOnBlack »

Let's just keep this rally going... repeat mid-day dead cat bounce a few more times to get the heart pumping... I'm talking 3,000 point mid-day drops to 100 point gain finishes. Then Bull market for another 100 years; it can collapse after that for all I care.
m@ver1ck
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by m@ver1ck »

Waiting for steeper to decline to move to 100% stocks.
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peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

z3r0c00l wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:16 pm I am calling nonsense on all the doom and gloom. How about Pfizer at a P/E of 15 with a 3% dividend yield? Or the absurdity of Verizon at P/E of 10 with 4.8% dividend.
Someone once said the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
Patzer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Patzer »

willthrill81 wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:07 pm
canadianbacon wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 2:04 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 1:34 pm
AlphaLess wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 12:59 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 12:03 pm

1. Any starting period is arbitrary.

2. We don't define every word of every post.

With no disrespect intended, you missed the forest for the trees.
Apologies: no disrespect was meant to you.

Can you please help me see the forest?
The point was that despite the recent drop in stocks, they still outperformed bonds over that period.

Many have become irrationally worried about the sudden drop in stocks and have forgotten about the huge runup they experienced last year.
Sort of like the hedonic treadmill, people got the nice 2021 return and think “I’m worth that now”… so a loss feels painful.
Exactly. People quickly anchored to their portfolio's new balance, making the current losses feel worse. Had the market been literally flat for the last 4 months, they wouldn't feel nearly as badly, even though they would be in exactly the same position.
Doesn't help that the loss is right at the start of the year.
I think a decent amount of people do a net worth calculation at the end of the year, and so it would be very different if this correction had been in November and December, instead.
horste
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by horste »

alfaspider wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:00 am
Gufomel wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:59 am The market appears to have forgotten to take its bipolar meds.
Buy lithium stocks!
Pharma or Tech? What are the expected side effects?
Patzer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Patzer »

mrspock wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:13 pm This is almost comical. It reminds me of waaaaaay back in 2020 when the outcome was so obvious and predictable if anyone bothered to understand history. Same deal now.

Here's how the weighing machine is going (since people are too concerned about watching the market moves vs. actual earnings data):

MSFT - Earnings beat
3M - Earnings beat
Verizon - Beats
Texas Instruments - Beats
Nvidia - Goto BestBuy....go try to find a card, they can't make these things fast enough (Crypto, AI etc).
APPL - Expected to post historically high earnings tomorrow

... and on and on.

You can't even order a car right now without waiting months, savings rates are high, wages are increasing, the economy is booming, and the fed pumped in billions into the economy. If we hit -15% or -25%, this is going to be like taking candy from a baby.... I almost feel guilty.

People were in similar denial in 2020, and it was only after successive earnings seasons where bit by bit the narrative of the pandemic causing a prolonged recession began to fall apart -- ultimately the bears were trampled by the bulls. This time it's interest rate hikes and inflation.... let us see how the weighing goes this time!
I think it comes down to if the FED can control inflation.
There is a fear that the FED will have to raise rates several percent to stop inflation, and that will bring the party to a halt.
If they are right, then stocks probably are over priced right now by as much as 30%.

I don't agree with that fear.
I think supply chain problems will work themselves out and hitting the breaks on QE, plus 3-4 rate hikes this year and a few next year will slow things down enough, without the FED overcorrecting.
I think stocks are fairly priced right now.
stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 »

Looks like we've really gone off the rails this time around...

Image

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2 ... 7ff79a20ed
Tom_T
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Tom_T »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 5:07 pm Looks like we've really gone off the rails this time around...

Image

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2 ... 7ff79a20ed
Hardly.
rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

This came out on the 2nd.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... ngs-2021-7

Lots of doom and gloom. Some of it has already been posted in threads here.
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Kenkat
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Kenkat »

I know it’s still only January but Value has held up pretty well relative to growth so far this year. Could be time to shine.
drk
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by drk »

mrspock wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:13 pm People were in similar denial in 2020, and it was only after successive earnings seasons where bit by bit the narrative of the pandemic causing a prolonged recession began to fall apart -- ultimately the bears were trampled by the bulls. This time it's interest rate hikes and inflation.... let us see how the weighing goes this time!
Right. This reminded me of this (insightful, IMO) post:
TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 12:26 pm At some point look for some clever analyst to point out that rising interest rates allows Mega Tech companies like Apple, Microsoft and Google to start earning a return on their enormous cash hordes. Of course this applies to any company with a great balancesheet and a large cash horde but the majority of those are Mega Tech, although I believe I can think of at least one exception.
All these giants running the Buffett playbook, and people pretend they're unprepared for this environment.
Last edited by drk on Tue Jan 25, 2022 5:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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canadianbacon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by canadianbacon »

atdharris wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:10 pm And now Microsoft is off 5% after hours after posting an excellent quarter. It seems everyone is going to be punished in this market for the time being.
Now *up* 2.7%. I think the only thing we know for sure about the market right now is that it's nuts.
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

Kenkat wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 5:22 pm I know it’s still only January but Value has held up pretty well relative to growth so far this year. Could be time to shine.
Yep. I'm glad I shifted a good chunk from VOOG to IVE and VTV in November and December.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by z3r0c00l »

peskypesky wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:52 pm
z3r0c00l wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:16 pm I am calling nonsense on all the doom and gloom. How about Pfizer at a P/E of 15 with a 3% dividend yield? Or the absurdity of Verizon at P/E of 10 with 4.8% dividend.
Someone once said the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
It can, but I don't think it will. Has the market ever been irrational more than 20 years at a time? I can stay solvent that long.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by SilverSmurfer »

S&P Futures up 0.01%
Quick, over to the [after hours] market is soaring thread!
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HanSolo
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HanSolo »

am wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:01 am Who constitutes the majority of the selling lower?

Is it big institutional fund, pension, etc managers who have to report their results every quarter? I believe I read that this group constitutes the majority of volumes. Don’t they know that buy and hold is the best way to go?
Seems nobody answered the above, so I'll bite. My guess is that most institutions are long-term buy-and-holders. But, on any given trading day, prices are set by the small minority who actually trade that day (most of whom, at least on a dollar-weighted basis, are not long-term buy-and-holders).
peskypesky wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:53 am
burritoLover wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:42 am Keep in mind, that at the current price, the S&P 500 would have to lop off 23% just to get back to the pre-pandemic Feb 20' price.
And that seems to be what most people here are rooting for.
Lower prices are better for buyers. It's not unreasonable for people to be in favor of their own self-interest.
peskypesky wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 1:10 pm I guess some people are ok with being hit in the face with a hammer.
The better analogy is a roller coaster.

People who are OK with what roller coasters do should ride them. People who aren't, shouldn't.

And so far, this is just the kiddie coaster. Heck, we're not even halfway to a run-of-the-mill bear market. Yawn.

You might be better off if you look at multi-year returns, since that's what matters.
Last edited by HanSolo on Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:05 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bogledogle87 »

What is with all the market-timing speculators invading this thread!? Was not expecting this! :confused
VTWAX and chill
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Triple digit golfer »

bogledogle87 wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 6:38 pm What is with all the market-timing speculators invading this thread!? Was not expecting this! :confused
Yep. Enough cash/bonds to sleep at night, the rest in world market cap equities. Invest when cash is available to invest.

It isn't rocket science and likely leads to greater returns than the market timers earn, although they rarely acknowledge it.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by drk »

Via the MSFT News tab in Think or Swim, these consecutive headlines:
The Stock Market Needed Good News From Microsoft. It Got It. -- Barrons.com
The Stock Market Needed More From Microsoft. It's Set to Drop Again. -- Barrons.com
:oops:
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HanSolo »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 6:41 pm
bogledogle87 wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 6:38 pm What is with all the market-timing speculators invading this thread!? Was not expecting this! :confused
Yep. Enough cash/bonds to sleep at night, the rest in world market cap equities. Invest when cash is available to invest.

It isn't rocket science and likely leads to greater returns than the market timers earn, although they rarely acknowledge it.
Perhaps it's a good time to remind people of this:
CyclingDuo wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 9:37 am Check out the story of Tiffany, Brittany, and Sarah. Learn to be like Sarah for your investing decades. :beer
https://www.personalfinanceclub.com/how ... he-market/

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jason2459 »

bogledogle87 wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 6:38 pm What is with all the market-timing speculators invading this thread!? Was not expecting this! :confused
What do you mean? I time the market every two weeks like clockwork.
"In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long run, it is a weighing machine" ~Benjamin Graham
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by SantaClaraSurfer »

I don't have a long investing history.

But that helps provide some perspective, as well.

In July 2020 I started an experiment by throwing any "cash back" rewards and spare pennies landing in our sweep into one of two mutual funds: one an S+P 500 and the other a Broad Int'l, at a ratio of 2:1 US to Int'l.

Definitely no market timing involved here, and as mutual funds just average out the cost per share, I don't really pay attention as to when and how much or which fund and when, I just keep randomly tossing pennies in the fountain. Here are my results at EOD today:

S+P 500 return = 11.8%
Int'l return = -3.64%
Blended return for my "cash back" pennies fund: 6.64%

That's nowhere near a free fall, but it's also not like my random walk in the markets the last 18 months has me dreaming of all the big things I'm going to do with my earnings, either! Heck, cumulative inflation from July 2020 to Dec 2021 was 7.6%.

Yes, the S+P return from July 2020 till today is still a spectacular 28% if your money was all invested on July 1, even with current market results.

If you've been adding to a blended US/Int'l allocation for the last 18 months, it's a different story.

There's no harm in recognizing that.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by quattro73 »

drk wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 5:23 pm
mrspock wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:13 pm People were in similar denial in 2020, and it was only after successive earnings seasons where bit by bit the narrative of the pandemic causing a prolonged recession began to fall apart -- ultimately the bears were trampled by the bulls. This time it's interest rate hikes and inflation.... let us see how the weighing goes this time!
Right. This reminded me of this (insightful, IMO) post:
TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 12:26 pm At some point look for some clever analyst to point out that rising interest rates allows Mega Tech companies like Apple, Microsoft and Google to start earning a return on their enormous cash hordes. Of course this applies to any company with a great balancesheet and a large cash horde but the majority of those are Mega Tech, although I believe I can think of at least one exception.
All these giants running the Buffett playbook, and people pretend they're unprepared for this environment.
Quoting both a Vulcan and a Time Lord. Interesting
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stalyn »

SantaClaraSurfer wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 7:09 pm I don't have a long investing history.

But that helps provide some perspective, as well.

In July 2020 I started an experiment by throwing any "cash back" rewards and spare pennies landing in our sweep into one of two mutual funds: one an S+P 500 and the other a Broad Int'l, at a ratio of 2:1 US to Int'l.

Definitely no market timing involved here, and as mutual funds just average out the cost per share, I don't really pay attention as to when and how much or which fund and when, I just keep randomly tossing pennies in the fountain. Here are my results at EOD today:

S+P 500 return = 11.8%
Int'l return = -3.64%
Blended return for my "cash back" pennies fund: 6.64%

That's nowhere near a free fall, but it's also not like my random walk in the markets the last 18 months has me dreaming of all the big things I'm going to do with my earnings, either! Heck, cumulative inflation from July 2020 to Dec 2021 was 7.6%.

Yes, the S+P return from July 2020 till today is still a spectacular 28% if your money was all invested on July 1, even with current market results.

If you've been adding to a blended US/Int'l allocation for the last 18 months, it's a different story.

There's no harm in recognizing that.
So.., what are you saying? Is wise to good domestic and international?
quattro73
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by quattro73 »

MSFT had $16B in net income for the 06/30/2018 YE.

MSFT had $61B in net income for the 06/30/2021 YE.

Just for some perspective on why valuations of some companies might have gone up. They have accelerated earnings at a rapid pace.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AnnetteLouisan »

bogledogle87 wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 6:38 pm What is with all the market-timing speculators invading this thread!? Was not expecting this! :confused
The freaks come out at night, hut hut hut hut!
(That was a great 80s song, amirite?)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by drk »

quattro73 wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 7:19 pm Quoting both a Vulcan and a Time Lord. Interesting
I guess that makes me Picard?
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