Below 3500? Why and how come? I can't comprehend how that would happen. That would wipe out so muchincognito_man wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 2:00 pm Is there a thread anywhere where bogleheads get to predict the high and low on the S&P 500 for the calendar year?
Even it if dips below 3500 (which wouldn't surprise me whatsoever), it would would still be slightly overpriced. Honestly wouldn't shock me to see a drop to just below 3,000 sometime in the next year or two.
My high prediction: 4818.62
My low prediction: 3624.35
U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
-
- Posts: 10433
- Joined: Mon May 18, 2009 5:57 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
If you can't comprehend a 27% drop from the high, you should reset your expectations. It's entirely possible that it will drop down closer to 2,500 than 3,500. Heck, even 2,500 would only be a 48% drop, which has happened twice in the last 20 years already, along with the 33% or so COVID crash.huzaing wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 2:38 pmBelow 3500? Why and how come? I can't comprehend how that would happen. That would wipe out so muchincognito_man wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 2:00 pm Is there a thread anywhere where bogleheads get to predict the high and low on the S&P 500 for the calendar year?
Even it if dips below 3500 (which wouldn't surprise me whatsoever), it would would still be slightly overpriced. Honestly wouldn't shock me to see a drop to just below 3,000 sometime in the next year or two.
My high prediction: 4818.62
My low prediction: 3624.35
That's three times in the last 20 years that a drop larger than you could comprehend has happened.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I think we would need more of a catalyst to drop 48% than rising interest rates. That's close to the GFC drop.
-
- Posts: 1939
- Joined: Fri Jun 21, 2019 7:06 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
in for 30K FSKAX !
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Great comment!quantAndHold wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 2:23 pmNot every member of Bogleheads is a lockstep Boglehead. Even so, I doubt there are all that many people here who are actually trading on intraday market moves. Most people in the soaring and free fall threads are just here to blow off steam and have a chance to snark. I mean, it’s really tiresome to be earnest and helpful all the time.AnalogKid22 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 12:53 pmThis entire thread is basically counter to the Boglehead principles, specifically "tune out the noise", since the majority of the posts are in response to daily market swings and financial news, which we're supposed to ignore because "nobody knows nuthin".
Especially for those of us who really did lock in their IPS a decade ago and are busy staying the course, a little market volatility is always good for the entertainment value it provides.
I don't carry a signature because people are easily offended.
-
- Posts: 3509
- Joined: Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:52 am
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
was going to exchange bonds for 10K VTSAX but chickened out and bought just 5K "to start", i'll buy in steps of 5K on the way down, although probably never works out in the end which is OK.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Sure, but something else could happen.
One should ALWAYS prepared for a 50% crash starting tomorrow.
Because it might.
This is always true.
Seems like I've been saying that for like at least 6-7 years... Does no one read my posts?
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
- AnalogKid22
- Posts: 474
- Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 8:26 pm
- Location: Babylon, but I'd love to spend a night in Zion
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Yes, I know this thread is purely for entertainment and I comment on occasion. Just making a general statement that most of the posts in this thread probably aren't investing advice you want to act on, which anyone with a plan shouldn't do anyway, particularly if you do follow the principles.quantAndHold wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 2:23 pmNot every member of Bogleheads is a lockstep Boglehead. Even so, I doubt there are all that many people here who are actually trading on intraday market moves. Most people in the soaring and free fall threads are just here to blow off steam and have a chance to snark. I mean, it’s really tiresome to be earnest and helpful all the time.AnalogKid22 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 12:53 pmThis entire thread is basically counter to the Boglehead principles, specifically "tune out the noise", since the majority of the posts are in response to daily market swings and financial news, which we're supposed to ignore because "nobody knows nuthin".
Especially for those of us who really did lock in their IPS a decade ago and are busy staying the course, a little market volatility is always good for the entertainment value it provides.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Ha! Good fun.quantAndHold wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 2:23 pm I mean, it’s really tiresome to be earnest and helpful all the time.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It's not even that unlikely, option prices show the market has priced in about a 7% chance of SPX hitting 2400 by Dec 2023. It takes a lot to stomach equity risk.
-
- Posts: 10433
- Joined: Mon May 18, 2009 5:57 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
If you didn't post that, you'd only have 100 posts here.
-
- Posts: 163
- Joined: Sun Jan 16, 2022 7:41 pm
- vanbogle59
- Posts: 1314
- Joined: Wed Mar 10, 2021 7:30 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I read them.
Wait, you mean you were being serious?!?!?!?!
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
"Seems like I've been saying that for like at least 6-7 years... Does no one read my posts?"
Sure, but that a 50% drop is possible is obvious to most of us, so we don't say anything.
The rest don't believe it's possible.
I've been prepared for a massive drop since my parents began telling me about the Depression in the '50s when I was little. Their experiences were scarier than the original Grimm fairy tales. Not the sanitized versions either.
Plus, I had an uncle born in 1915 who went to work for Dupont at age 18 and began buying stock prior to WWII. He passed on quite a bit of knowledge over the decades.
"By mid-November, 1929, the Dow had lost about half its value. The stock market was bearish, meaning that its value had declined by more than 20%. The Dow continued to lose value until the summer of 1932, when it bottomed out at 41 points, a stomach-churning 89% below its peak. The Dow didn't regain its pre-crash value until 1954." - www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/basics/crashes
Yeah, yeah, I know, it's different this time because the government will stop it from happening. Unless they can't or miscalculate. Be Prepared.
Sure, but that a 50% drop is possible is obvious to most of us, so we don't say anything.
The rest don't believe it's possible.
I've been prepared for a massive drop since my parents began telling me about the Depression in the '50s when I was little. Their experiences were scarier than the original Grimm fairy tales. Not the sanitized versions either.
Plus, I had an uncle born in 1915 who went to work for Dupont at age 18 and began buying stock prior to WWII. He passed on quite a bit of knowledge over the decades.
"By mid-November, 1929, the Dow had lost about half its value. The stock market was bearish, meaning that its value had declined by more than 20%. The Dow continued to lose value until the summer of 1932, when it bottomed out at 41 points, a stomach-churning 89% below its peak. The Dow didn't regain its pre-crash value until 1954." - www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/basics/crashes
Yeah, yeah, I know, it's different this time because the government will stop it from happening. Unless they can't or miscalculate. Be Prepared.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Well, that and my posts about how the long-term return of the stock market INCLUDES the crashesTriple digit golfer wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 3:13 pmIf you didn't post that, you'd only have 100 posts here.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I wouldn't make investment decisions based on what's posted on an Internet forum. But this is a great sounding board for ideas and new approaches.AnalogKid22 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 3:05 pmYes, I know this thread is purely for entertainment and I comment on occasion. Just making a general statement that most of the posts in this thread probably aren't investing advice you want to act on, which anyone with a plan shouldn't do anyway, particularly if you do follow the principles.quantAndHold wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 2:23 pmNot every member of Bogleheads is a lockstep Boglehead. Even so, I doubt there are all that many people here who are actually trading on intraday market moves. Most people in the soaring and free fall threads are just here to blow off steam and have a chance to snark. I mean, it’s really tiresome to be earnest and helpful all the time.AnalogKid22 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 12:53 pmThis entire thread is basically counter to the Boglehead principles, specifically "tune out the noise", since the majority of the posts are in response to daily market swings and financial news, which we're supposed to ignore because "nobody knows nuthin".
Especially for those of us who really did lock in their IPS a decade ago and are busy staying the course, a little market volatility is always good for the entertainment value it provides.
Now, will this market just capitulate already. Or is it going to be volatile burn down like in the early 2000s?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
With LTT up significantly more than stocks are down we may be seeing newly created money buying stocks from smart money and smart money buying bonds. If true this drop is nowhere near over.
- vanbogle59
- Posts: 1314
- Joined: Wed Mar 10, 2021 7:30 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
The problem with true doomsday prep is that you have to cover ALL the doomsdays.andypanda wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 3:18 pm "Seems like I've been saying that for like at least 6-7 years... Does no one read my posts?"
Sure, but that a 50% drop is possible is obvious to most of us, so we don't say anything.
The rest don't believe it's possible.
I've been prepared for a massive drop since my parents began telling me about the Depression in the '50s when I was little. Their experiences were scarier than the original Grimm fairy tales. Not the sanitized versions either.
Plus, I had an uncle born in 1915 who went to work for Dupont at age 18 and began buying stock prior to WWII. He passed on quite a bit of knowledge over the decades.
"By mid-November, 1929, the Dow had lost about half its value. The stock market was bearish, meaning that its value had declined by more than 20%. The Dow continued to lose value until the summer of 1932, when it bottomed out at 41 points, a stomach-churning 89% below its peak. The Dow didn't regain its pre-crash value until 1954." - www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/basics/crashes
Yeah, yeah, I know, it's different this time because the government will stop it from happening. Unless they can't or miscalculate. Be Prepared.
What about hyperinflation? Massive unemployment? Government shutdown? Electricity outage? Gas shortages? Civil unrest....
(Insert inevitable bullets and butter comments here)
I am prepared for a 50% drop. I'm even prepared for 10 years of muted returns.
But I'm NOT prepared for 1929. Nor famine. Nor divorce.....
-
- Posts: 349
- Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:26 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Yesterday comments from Powell, especially about the strength of economy and Labor market, it being able to withstand rate hikes implies - he wanted to see the market cool off.
Russia(OPEC), China and CoVID will have an higher impact on inflation that anything Fed will do IMO.
Russia(OPEC), China and CoVID will have an higher impact on inflation that anything Fed will do IMO.
No individual stocks.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
If this drop was over, we'd already be back over the 200 day moving average. We've basically been below it for a week now with an intra day spike over it. The super hawkish Fed didn't help matters. Is the Fed put really gone? Maybe Apple will have good earnings.
Last edited by rockstar on Thu Jan 27, 2022 3:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Big beat by Apple. Record for services, strong demand for iPhones, macbooks selling like hotcakes. Everything hit but iPads. They grew 21% in China!
This is Apple’s ever-important holiday quarter and it reported a revenue record of $123.95 billion, up 11% year over year. It reported profit of $34.6 billion and earnings-per-share of $2.10.
Apple no longer reports unit sales for any of its products, but instead reports a breakdown of revenue by product category. Here is the full breakdown for the fiscal Q1 2022.
$71.6 billion: iPhone
$10.85 billion: Mac
$7.25 billion: iPad
$14.70 billion: Wearables, Home, and Accessories
$19.5 billion: Services
This is Apple’s ever-important holiday quarter and it reported a revenue record of $123.95 billion, up 11% year over year. It reported profit of $34.6 billion and earnings-per-share of $2.10.
Apple no longer reports unit sales for any of its products, but instead reports a breakdown of revenue by product category. Here is the full breakdown for the fiscal Q1 2022.
$71.6 billion: iPhone
$10.85 billion: Mac
$7.25 billion: iPad
$14.70 billion: Wearables, Home, and Accessories
$19.5 billion: Services
Last edited by GP813 on Thu Jan 27, 2022 4:07 pm, edited 2 times in total.
- peskypesky
- Posts: 1023
- Joined: Fri Mar 08, 2013 7:56 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
My Extended Market Index Fund (VXF) has been bleeding badly.stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:53 am Small Caps are quickly heading toward BEAR market zone... ouch! my Portfolio is being set on fire as we speak
Small Caps have been a PAINFUL play in the last few years, insane volatility for an underperforming asset, this is going to have the worst Sharpe ratio in the century.
Back to Nov. 1, 2020 price.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VXF?p=VXF
-
- Posts: 169
- Joined: Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:00 pm
- Location: Madison, WI
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
No underlying reason other than market is historically wildly overpriced and drops of that magnitude are relatively common. A drop of that magnitude will almost assuredly happen again unless there are some significant societal/economic changes that are not foreseeable.huzaing wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 2:38 pmBelow 3500? Why and how come? I can't comprehend how that would happen. That would wipe out so muchincognito_man wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 2:00 pm Is there a thread anywhere where bogleheads get to predict the high and low on the S&P 500 for the calendar year?
Even it if dips below 3500 (which wouldn't surprise me whatsoever), it would would still be slightly overpriced. Honestly wouldn't shock me to see a drop to just below 3,000 sometime in the next year or two.
My high prediction: 4818.62
My low prediction: 3624.35
It's just a question of "when". And the "when's" have historically been sooner whilst sitting at the top than otherwise.
-
- Posts: 16054
- Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I'm not even sure if there was the Fed put.rockstar wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 3:29 pm If this drop was over, we'd already be back over the 200 day moving average. We've basically been below is it for a week now with an intra day spike over it. The super hawkish Fed didn't help matters. Is the Fed put really gone? Maybe Apple will have good earnings.
The bond purchases would print money, in a way. But it's not like you and I are receiving the proceeds. And while at it, they're still buying assets and yet we're almost in a -10% correction territory. So...are they even related, or were people simply buying on the incorrect notion that the Fed is somehow helping the market?
- gmaynardkrebs
- Posts: 2339
- Joined: Sun Feb 10, 2008 10:48 am
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
And ending when?
Last edited by gmaynardkrebs on Thu Jan 27, 2022 3:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
"The problem with true doomsday prep is that you have to cover ALL the doomsdays."
I thought we were talking about being mentally prepared for a 50% drop. Be Prepared is the Boy Scout motto.
"The Scout Motto of the Scout movement, in various languages, has been used by millions of Scouts around the world since 1907. "
I thought we were talking about being mentally prepared for a 50% drop. Be Prepared is the Boy Scout motto.
"The Scout Motto of the Scout movement, in various languages, has been used by millions of Scouts around the world since 1907. "
-
- Posts: 158
- Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:43 am
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
AAPL going to single-handedly float the market.
- canadianbacon
- Posts: 677
- Joined: Sun Nov 10, 2019 9:04 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
When enough have given up hope.
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Rates are still super low. They now basically control the entire yield curve. High yield isn't even high.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 3:34 pmI'm not even sure if there was the Fed put.rockstar wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 3:29 pm If this drop was over, we'd already be back over the 200 day moving average. We've basically been below is it for a week now with an intra day spike over it. The super hawkish Fed didn't help matters. Is the Fed put really gone? Maybe Apple will have good earnings.
The bond purchases would print money, in a way. But it's not like you and I are receiving the proceeds. And while at it, they're still buying assets and yet we're almost in a -10% correction territory. So...are they even related, or were people simply buying on the incorrect notion that the Fed is somehow helping the market?
When rates go down, asset values go up. They've been running that playbook for a long, long time. Now, they're unwinding two years of ridiculous accommodation that gave us ridiculous returns. Maybe this is simply mean revision assuming the Fed acts a certain way.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It's a huge weight in both QQQ and VOO. I wonder what guidance they give. That's going to be key.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
In other news Robinhood is now down to $10 in AH after earnings release, that's almost a 90% drop from ATH. Wow.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
A helpful rule of thumb is that anyone who's market outlook is predicated on what the Fed did or didn't do, or what it may or may not do, has no idea what role it plays in the economy or how it actually operatesMarseille07 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 3:34 pmI'm not even sure if there was the Fed put.rockstar wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 3:29 pm If this drop was over, we'd already be back over the 200 day moving average. We've basically been below is it for a week now with an intra day spike over it. The super hawkish Fed didn't help matters. Is the Fed put really gone? Maybe Apple will have good earnings.
The bond purchases would print money, in a way. But it's not like you and I are receiving the proceeds. And while at it, they're still buying assets and yet we're almost in a -10% correction territory. So...are they even related, or were people simply buying on the incorrect notion that the Fed is somehow helping the market?
Last edited by km91 on Thu Jan 27, 2022 3:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I guess you haven't read my other posts over the years.
Still a very good question.... Likely to recover within 2-5 years, certainly possible could take 10-15 years, outside non-zero chance of never.
Planning around a 50% crash (or more) that might take a decade (or more) to recover means stock money should be long-term money.
One could still be 90/10 as a young investor, and just ride out the long crash (accumulating more shares at the lower prices along the way). But that young investor needs to be aware that the market could crash like that and take a long time to recover so they can mentally prepare for it.
Someone closer to retirement or in retirement will want a more conservative portfolio like 60/40 or 50/50 or 30/70, so they can pull money from the bonds/cash/CDs side if needed while waiting for the stock market to recover.
Once you are prepared for a 50% (or more) crash, you no longer have to worry about it.
It's like carrying around an umbrella all day... People come into this thread and start screaming how "it just started raining outside, and it might even turn into a downpour!", and you can just smile to yourself, and say "Well, good thing I already have an umbrella"
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
-
- Posts: 1167
- Joined: Sat Nov 09, 2019 9:09 am
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I wonder if anyone that is part of The Fed is a Boglehead?
- vanbogle59
- Posts: 1314
- Joined: Wed Mar 10, 2021 7:30 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Does Forrester count?tvubpwcisla wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 3:47 pm I wonder if anyone that is part of The Fed is a Boglehead?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I think Forrester is a grad student doing a research study. Posts some crazy stuff, then documents all of our reactions to it.vanbogle59 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 3:48 pmDoes Forrester count?tvubpwcisla wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 3:47 pm I wonder if anyone that is part of The Fed is a Boglehead?
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
-
- Posts: 16054
- Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I don't know if Chair Powell is a Boglehead but he was reportedly holding a Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund.tvubpwcisla wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 3:47 pm I wonder if anyone that is part of The Fed is a Boglehead?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
No, I don't think so. The vast majority of Fed balance sheet is 2 years or shorter in duration. That's why we're seeing term spreads contracting and there's a good chance we even see an inversion; though the Fed can influence the short-end, the medium and long-end of the curve doesn't move much since it's mostly market-determined.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Don't worry, the market can still drop even with good Apple earnings. Microsoft also posted strong earnings and the market still dropped outside of Microsoft.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
If it goes to 2500 I will sell everything I own to buy vtsax.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 2:40 pmIf you can't comprehend a 27% drop from the high, you should reset your expectations. It's entirely possible that it will drop down closer to 2,500 than 3,500. Heck, even 2,500 would only be a 48% drop, which has happened twice in the last 20 years already, along with the 33% or so COVID crash.huzaing wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 2:38 pmBelow 3500? Why and how come? I can't comprehend how that would happen. That would wipe out so muchincognito_man wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 2:00 pm Is there a thread anywhere where bogleheads get to predict the high and low on the S&P 500 for the calendar year?
Even it if dips below 3500 (which wouldn't surprise me whatsoever), it would would still be slightly overpriced. Honestly wouldn't shock me to see a drop to just below 3,000 sometime in the next year or two.
My high prediction: 4818.62
My low prediction: 3624.35
That's three times in the last 20 years that a drop larger than you could comprehend has happened.
- peskypesky
- Posts: 1023
- Joined: Fri Mar 08, 2013 7:56 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
"It's a market of stocks, not a stock market." Or something.
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
That's not true.Dry-Drink wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 3:56 pmNo, I don't think so. The vast majority of Fed balance sheet is 2 years or shorter in duration. That's why we're seeing term spreads contracting and there's a good chance we even see an inversion; though the Fed can influence the short-end, the medium and long-end of the curve doesn't move much since it's mostly market-determined.
Here's the balance sheet:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases ... tm#h41tab1
Go to:
Maturity Distribution of Securities, Loans, and Selected Other Assets and Liabilities, January 26, 2022
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
My guess is that this is a pretend to fight inflation exercise with an added bonus of buying up shares retail panic sold on the dip and continued training of retail to buy the dip for the ultimate crash.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It's feel like it's pushed up every day and then sold off at the end of the day. This feels like traders trading volatility with it slowly going down. Reminds me of early 2000s.
- peskypesky
- Posts: 1023
- Joined: Fri Mar 08, 2013 7:56 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Sounds plausible. I think the Fed is trying to buy themselves time and praying that supply chain issues subside. But the inflation in the economy is not just a supply chain issue IMO. Unlike most here, I think the pumping of money into the system after the crashes of 2008 and 2020 has contributed a lot to the problem. But I know this is a minority opinion here on Bogleheads, where most people seem to think monetary policy has no effect on the economy and the stock market.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I used to think this was dotcom 2.0 but I was wrong. This is a whole different beast related to TINA and Fed put logic.
Gold is down but corporate and EM govt bonds are up, suggesting neither liquidity crisis nor The End.
Brace for everything to start pumping again soon once enough retails have washed out.
-
- Posts: 16054
- Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Actually overnight gap-up intraday-down has been happening for a long time: https://www.ccn.com/the-stock-markets-b ... -each-day/
These days it's more noticeable because the volatility is larger.
-
- Posts: 367
- Joined: Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:12 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
roth went from 100% cash to small cap value today
probably gonna die
probably gonna die