U.S. stocks in free fall

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AnnetteLouisan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AnnetteLouisan »

frugalecon wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:07 pm
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:42 pm
000 wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:50 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:47 pm I wish you younger folk would stop posting these comments celebrating the downturns. Some of us are older and are no longer in the early accumulation phase. The downturns are painful to us because we may not live long enough to see the full recovery.
You might even have to change your username :shock:
All this time I was reading it as Upper Northwest Guy. I thought he lived in the Northwest! :oops:
As someone who lives in the DC area, I assumed he live in Upper Northwest DC. (Like the North Cleveland Park, Chevy Chase, Tenleytown, AU Park area.) Hey @UpperNWGuy, which hypothesis is correct?
UpperNwGuy is entitled to his anonymity which he values. Right? 😃
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by UpperNwGuy »

frugalecon wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:07 pm
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:42 pm
000 wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:50 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:47 pm I wish you younger folk would stop posting these comments celebrating the downturns. Some of us are older and are no longer in the early accumulation phase. The downturns are painful to us because we may not live long enough to see the full recovery.
You might even have to change your username :shock:
All this time I was reading it as Upper Northwest Guy. I thought he lived in the Northwest! :oops:
As someone who lives in the DC area, I assumed he live in Upper Northwest DC. (Like the North Cleveland Park, Chevy Chase, Tenleytown, AU Park area.) Hey @UpperNWGuy, which hypothesis is correct?
You are correct frugalecon!
Last edited by UpperNwGuy on Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Ni0ck
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Ni0ck »

Jimsad wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:40 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:47 pm
peskypesky wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:24 pm
PowderDay9 wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:41 pm Agreed, we need some bigger drops and for it to stay down for awhile. The US market has been way overvalued for a long time.
Yup. I'm hoping for a full-on depression. Stocks will be so cheap to accumulate.
I wish you younger folk would stop posting these comments celebrating the downturns. Some of us are older and are no longer in the early accumulation phase. The downturns are painful to us because we may not live long enough to see the full recovery.
+1
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Fortitude »

flyingaway wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:34 pm Is there anyone who wants to guess what will be the bottom of this downturn? Would it be -10%, -15%, or -20%?
The S&P 500 enters correction territory at 4,337 which is 10% from its most recent intra-day high. Back of the envelope, that gets us to Vanguard’s Total Stock ETF (VTI) at $218.

With that said, I think the S&P will slightly break through that level and retest its 10/4/21 intraday low of 4,279 which is 11% from its most recent high and puts VTI at $215.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

flyingaway wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:34 pm Is there anyone who wants to guess what will be the bottom of this downturn? Would it be -10%, -15%, or -20%?
No idea. The Fed hasn't even done their first increase. And the ten is only up about 30ish bps.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Da5id »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:47 pm
peskypesky wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:24 pm
PowderDay9 wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:41 pm Agreed, we need some bigger drops and for it to stay down for awhile. The US market has been way overvalued for a long time.
Yup. I'm hoping for a full-on depression. Stocks will be so cheap to accumulate.
I wish you younger folk would stop posting these comments celebrating the downturns. Some of us are older and are no longer in the early accumulation phase. The downturns are painful to us because we may not live long enough to see the full recovery.
While this is fair, if one doesn't want to see people commenting lightheartedly or pragmatically on plummeting stocks this may be the wrong thread to follow.
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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by JoMoney »

flyingaway wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:34 pm Is there anyone who wants to guess what will be the bottom of this downturn? Would it be -10%, -15%, or -20%?
I'm not hoping for it, but I think the market needs a healthy correction... 20% seems a bit much though, a 15% step backwards, maybe a little more, is about what I feel is needed to skim the frothiness off the top.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by slicendice »

I think you could see a year that rhymes with 2018. The difference being if inflation doesn't start to show signs of capitulating in the 2nd half of 2022, you probably will see the fed hit the brakes even harder in 2023 when it could get really ugly.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by trirunner »

flyingaway wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:34 pm Is there anyone who wants to guess what will be the bottom of this downturn? Would it be -10%, -15%, or -20%?
Probably looking at 45%, inflation will force the Fed's hand
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by HomerJ »

Elysium wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:11 pm
ChinchillaWhiplash wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:06 pm
Elysium wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:49 pm What bad days? we haven't even reached correction territory on S&P 500 yet, wait until it crosses 200 day average on the down then the real bad days will begin. Your portfolio should be designed with this in mind, so that when these eventual drawdowns happen we know what we're expected to do. Consider the past 10-12 years a gift and especially the last 3 years as bonus on top. Market isn't expected to average 16% per annum as it did since 2012. We are going to give back some of it and earn the averages over long periods. Market timing is impossible, otherwise we could all just sell at the top and buy back at the bottom.
It has broke the 200 day moving average.
:sharebeer okay then hang on to the seat of your pants.

Jeremy Grantham thinks $35 trillion of value will be wiped off in the coming bursting of "superbubble" where 50% of S&P 500 will be lost.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... -50-2022-1
You've been here too long to quote Jeremy Grantham. You should be a little bit embarrassed. :?
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by Beensabu »

HomerJ wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:03 pm You've been here too long to quote Jeremy Grantham. You should be a little bit embarrassed. :?
Harsh much?

In Grantham's defense, and he's put it forth in his own defense, nobody could have seen this level of "deranged monetary activism"!!! (shake both fists in the air when you say it -- it's fun) coming.

Also, that poster is just trying get people to think about managing risk if they haven't thought about it yet (or ever). That's all. By any means necessary.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by drk »

WhiteMaxima wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:06 pm Cash is losing 7% purhasing power every year.
N=1
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Beensabu »

^^^ That should be framed and displayed somewhere.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Yesterdaysnews »

Crypto could certainly go to zero. It is absolutely reasonable to believe cryptocurrencies are worthless. What ripple effects that has is anyone's guess. Considering the money machines the large cap US companies are I do believe stocks will ultimately be just fine but I anticipate a rocky year.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by vitaflo »

Yesterdaysnews wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:46 pm Crypto could certainly go to zero. It is absolutely reasonable to believe cryptocurrencies are worthless.
Not sure this will happen. Even baseball cards and beanie babies are still traded amongst the most die hard collectors even if everyone else has moved on.
Last edited by vitaflo on Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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HomerJ
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by HomerJ »

Beensabu wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:18 pm In Grantham's defense, and he's put it forth in his own defense, nobody could have seen this level of "deranged monetary activism"!!! (shake both fists in the air when you say it -- it's fun) coming.
Grantham's defense that he hasn't been able to predict the future for 12+ years is that something unexpected happened in the future?

He's been predicting a HUGE crash every year for 12+ years. No one should listen to him anymore.

The fact that financial media still interviews him and quotes him tells you everything you need to know about financial media. It's pretty much all worthless.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by moneywise3 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:09 pm I'm looking for a nice, slow, painful bleed down to 3,200 or lower for the S&P 500 at year-end. Then, a good 3+ years to get back to 4,800. We have far too many over confident investors under age 35 who have never seen or felt a truly painful market decline. March 2020 was a slap on the wrist. We need a couple kidney punches to straighten things out.

I believe this will help young investors in the long run because they will become more self-aware before it's too late.
Like your choice of words :)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by moneyflowin »

peskypesky wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:53 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:47 pm
I wish you younger folk would stop posting these comments celebrating the downturns. Some of us are older and are no longer in the early accumulation phase. The downturns are painful to us because we may not live long enough to see the full recovery.
I for one would agree with a ban on any post celebrating downturns. Let's make it happen.
I propose that people who don't have the stomach to handle the stock market, sell their stocks.

I hope stocks keep falling so it kills off the momentum traders and SPAC-buyers who think companies with no profit or even revenue are worth billions. Only then can we have a healthy stock market instead of the 2021 casino. 2021 was not investing, that was gambling, and I'm glad some market participants are getting their comeuppance. Once those people leave the market, we can go back to real investing.

I'm celebrating this downturn
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matjen
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by matjen »

HomerJ wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:56 pm
Beensabu wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:18 pm In Grantham's defense, and he's put it forth in his own defense, nobody could have seen this level of "deranged monetary activism"!!! (shake both fists in the air when you say it -- it's fun) coming.
Grantham's defense that he hasn't been able to predict the future for 12+ years is that something unexpected happened in the future?

He's been predicting a HUGE crash every year for 12+ years. No one should listen to him anymore.

The fact that financial media still interviews him and quotes him tells you everything you need to know about financial media. It's pretty much all worthless.
Now let’s be fair. It’s been every few years he predicts crashes for the past decade plus. :wink: But also let’s not forget his laughable prediction about oil shortages and prices skyrocketing 10-15 years ago. 100% agree with you HomerJ.
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by TheTimeLord »

Beensabu wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:18 pm
HomerJ wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:03 pm You've been here too long to quote Jeremy Grantham. You should be a little bit embarrassed. :?
Harsh much?

In Grantham's defense, and he's put it forth in his own defense, nobody could have seen this level of "deranged monetary activism"!!! (shake both fists in the air when you say it -- it's fun) coming.

Also, that poster is just trying get people to think about managing risk if they haven't thought about it yet (or ever). That's all. By any means necessary.
If my calculations are correct, the 45% drop Grantham is predicting would give the S&P a PE of roughly 14.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by FreddieFIRE »

It's the weekend, and VTI is only 9.5% off of its all time high. I'll bet anybody a dollar that the bears wimp out and we never even make it to that frightening "correction" land. :twisted: We've seen this show before.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by EnjoyIt »

FreddieFIRE wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:37 pm It's the weekend, and VTI is only 9.5% off of its all time high. I'll bet anybody a dollar that the bears wimp out and we never even make it to that frightening "correction" land. :twisted: We've seen this show before.
Market down on Friday, if there is no good news over the weekend, likely market will be down on Monday as well.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Triple digit golfer »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:47 pm
peskypesky wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:24 pm
PowderDay9 wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:41 pm Agreed, we need some bigger drops and for it to stay down for awhile. The US market has been way overvalued for a long time.
Yup. I'm hoping for a full-on depression. Stocks will be so cheap to accumulate.
I wish you younger folk would stop posting these comments celebrating the downturns. Some of us are older and are no longer in the early accumulation phase. The downturns are painful to us because we may not live long enough to see the full recovery.
The market has returned 15% a year for a decade, plus you guys had the greatest bond bull market in history. You older folks should be just fine. Us younger folks need some good.accumulation years. A downturn as provides us some future returns.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

moneyflowin wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:02 pm
I propose that people who don't have the stomach to handle the stock market, sell their stocks.

I hope stocks keep falling so it kills off the momentum traders and SPAC-buyers who think companies with no profit or even revenue are worth billions. Only then can we have a healthy stock market instead of the 2021 casino. 2021 was not investing, that was gambling, and I'm glad some market participants are getting their comeuppance. Once those people leave the market, we can go back to real investing.

I'm celebrating this downturn
I agree with you 100%.
I propose that we ban any comments that criticize the celebrating of downturns.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

Yesterdaysnews wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:46 pm Crypto could certainly go to zero. It is absolutely reasonable to believe cryptocurrencies are worthless. What ripple effects that has is anyone's guess. Considering the money machines the large cap US companies are I do believe stocks will ultimately be just fine but I anticipate a rocky year.
Crypto was one thing, but the arrival of the NFT insanity was another. From out of the blue, all of a sudden people were spending millions of dollars for a pixelated jpeg or a cartoon of an ape. If that wasn't the sign of a bubble that needed to burst, I don't know what could be.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Blue456 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 4:22 am The market has returned 15% a year for a decade, plus you guys had the greatest bond bull market in history. You older folks should be just fine. Us younger folks need some good.accumulation years. A downturn as provides us some future returns.
I feel the same way. I feel cheated buying US stocks at prices they are right now. Hoping for a good lost decade or two. On the other hand for those who are older in here and with high equity allocation it could be absolutely devastating.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LadyGeek »

As a reminder, crypto and NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens) as an investment are off-topic. see: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by SuperTrooper87 »

Blue456 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:06 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 4:22 am The market has returned 15% a year for a decade, plus you guys had the greatest bond bull market in history. You older folks should be just fine. Us younger folks need some good.accumulation years. A downturn as provides us some future returns.
I feel the same way. I feel cheated buying US stocks at prices they are right now. Hoping for a good lost decade or two. On the other hand for those who are older in here and with high equity allocation it could be absolutely devastating.
At 34, I have plenty of time. For those that are high equity and fear losing it all - greedy much? Isn’t this why everyone preaches asset allocation, rebalancing, etc?

Shouldn’t all age groups welcome a correction or even bear market over the years? You rebalance and move back along. It may hurt a little, but it’s not a death blow, unless….you got greedy and are too high in equities or perhaps living outside your means?

Sounds like some folks around here need to do some self reflection and perhaps take a break if someones opinion of a dropping market is hurting their feelings…

Breaks are good and healthy. Go for a walk or do a hoppy. Maybe reassess your AA.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

Methinks Monday will be a bloodbath. Gold is the only thing that will go up.
newyorker
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by newyorker »

What is the cause of market dropping anyways?
bling
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bling »

peskypesky wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 4:57 am
Yesterdaysnews wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:46 pm Crypto could certainly go to zero. It is absolutely reasonable to believe cryptocurrencies are worthless. What ripple effects that has is anyone's guess. Considering the money machines the large cap US companies are I do believe stocks will ultimately be just fine but I anticipate a rocky year.
Crypto was one thing, but the arrival of the NFT insanity was another. From out of the blue, all of a sudden people were spending millions of dollars for a pixelated jpeg or a cartoon of an ape. If that wasn't the sign of a bubble that needed to burst, I don't know what could be.

[Embedded image removed by admin LadyGeek. Here's the link:}
https://www.aol.com/pack-9-cryptopunk-n ... 45199.html
people with too much money will always find ways to spend it. this is no different compared to "the real world". expensive mansions, clothing, jewelry, art, cars, etc. all of that is just plain excessive after a certain point and serves no other purpose than to show off to everyone else what an awesome life you have.

NFTs are the digital version of that. sure, you can just copy/paste the image. but you're not the "owner". just like you can take a picture of the Mona Lisa, but you don't own it.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by runninginvestor »

JoMoney wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:29 pm
flyingaway wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:34 pm Is there anyone who wants to guess what will be the bottom of this downturn? Would it be -10%, -15%, or -20%?
I'm not hoping for it, but I think the market needs a healthy correction... 20% seems a bit much though, a 15% step backwards, maybe a little more, is about what I feel is needed to skim the frothiness off the top.
I agree, but without any ensuing FED/Stimulus intervention for public corporations.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess »

newyorker wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:13 am What is the cause of market dropping anyways?
It's always the same. There are more sellers than buyers.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nigel_ht »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 4:22 am
UpperNwGuy wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:47 pm
peskypesky wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:24 pm
PowderDay9 wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:41 pm Agreed, we need some bigger drops and for it to stay down for awhile. The US market has been way overvalued for a long time.
Yup. I'm hoping for a full-on depression. Stocks will be so cheap to accumulate.
I wish you younger folk would stop posting these comments celebrating the downturns. Some of us are older and are no longer in the early accumulation phase. The downturns are painful to us because we may not live long enough to see the full recovery.
The market has returned 15% a year for a decade, plus you guys had the greatest bond bull market in history. You older folks should be just fine. Us younger folks need some good.accumulation years. A downturn as provides us some future returns.
Eh…there’s a huge difference between wanting some buying opportunities and wishing for a full on depression.

What you want is the market returning 15% for another decade and be able to hit your numbers early and shift to a conservative AA.

If your income isn’t high enough to benefit from this the odds are any depression will impact young folks a lot more than older bogleheads with paid off houses and close to SS income.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess »

EnjoyIt wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:13 am
FreddieFIRE wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:37 pm It's the weekend, and VTI is only 9.5% off of its all time high. I'll bet anybody a dollar that the bears wimp out and we never even make it to that frightening "correction" land. :twisted: We've seen this show before.
Market down on Friday, if there is no good news over the weekend, likely market will be down on Monday as well.
Yes, agreed. Last bit of trading on Friday did not look good. Likely, the sell-of continues.
BTC is down nearly 6% since Friday's market close.
I don't carry a signature because people are easily offended.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 9-5 Suited »

nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:21 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 4:22 am
UpperNwGuy wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:47 pm
peskypesky wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:24 pm
PowderDay9 wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:41 pm Agreed, we need some bigger drops and for it to stay down for awhile. The US market has been way overvalued for a long time.
Yup. I'm hoping for a full-on depression. Stocks will be so cheap to accumulate.
I wish you younger folk would stop posting these comments celebrating the downturns. Some of us are older and are no longer in the early accumulation phase. The downturns are painful to us because we may not live long enough to see the full recovery.
The market has returned 15% a year for a decade, plus you guys had the greatest bond bull market in history. You older folks should be just fine. Us younger folks need some good.accumulation years. A downturn as provides us some future returns.
Eh…there’s a huge difference between wanting some buying opportunities and wishing for a full on depression.

What you want is the market returning 15% for another decade and be able to hit your numbers early and shift to a conservative AA.

If your income isn’t high enough to benefit from this the odds are any depression will impact young folks a lot more than older bogleheads with paid off houses and close to SS income.
Wishing for a full on depression is selfish, immature, and likely a display of lack of empathy and understanding of what actually happens to human beings in such a condition. The stories of the Great Depression are devastating and millions suffered terrible hardships that stayed with them forever. Wishing for that so that you can cash in on better personal equity returns is embarrassing.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nigel_ht »

Blue456 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:06 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 4:22 am The market has returned 15% a year for a decade, plus you guys had the greatest bond bull market in history. You older folks should be just fine. Us younger folks need some good.accumulation years. A downturn as provides us some future returns.
I feel the same way. I feel cheated buying US stocks at prices they are right now. Hoping for a good lost decade or two. On the other hand for those who are older in here and with high equity allocation it could be absolutely devastating.
A lost decade will hurt millennials as much or more than boomers. I know quite a few folks burned in 2008 that never trusted the market again and sat out the last decade or two.

Personally, I don’t wish a lost decade on my kids.

It would become hard to convince them to continue to be savers and being in the market is actually worthwhile if there isn’t any tangible evidence that there will be an outcome worth the effort even if intellectually they understand the concept.

Also you guys would lose any hope of FIRE. Enjoy grinding a full career and not hitting FI till much later. A “lost decade or two” would take several of you hoping for this outcome into your mid to late 50s without reaching FI and risking ageism prematurely ending your career.

Be careful what you wish for. You might get it.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Independent George »

BogleCPA wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:16 pm If I put in a "buy" order in a Vanguard taxable account right now (45 minutes before market closes), will I be buying in at this moment's exact price or does it default to today's market close price? I want to make sure I get a purchase in based on today's dip, just in case good news comes out over the weekend that would make Monday's opening shoot back up.

Most of my investing career I've just been a DCA investor with auto-401K contributions every two weeks and Roth IRA max outs on 1/1 of every year. I'm new to this whole taxable investing lifestyle and buying the dips, but I don't want to miss out on this action today!

Thanks in advance.
Why would you not just repeat the process with your taxable account, and buy a pre-determined amount every two weeks? It doesn't matter whether it's in a taxable or a retirement account - trying to buy the dips is not likely something you can do consistently. Tax loss harvesting is something different, but that always nets to zero.
pasadena
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by pasadena »

9-5 Suited wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:33 am
nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:21 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 4:22 am
UpperNwGuy wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:47 pm
peskypesky wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:24 pm

Yup. I'm hoping for a full-on depression. Stocks will be so cheap to accumulate.
I wish you younger folk would stop posting these comments celebrating the downturns. Some of us are older and are no longer in the early accumulation phase. The downturns are painful to us because we may not live long enough to see the full recovery.
The market has returned 15% a year for a decade, plus you guys had the greatest bond bull market in history. You older folks should be just fine. Us younger folks need some good.accumulation years. A downturn as provides us some future returns.
Eh…there’s a huge difference between wanting some buying opportunities and wishing for a full on depression.

What you want is the market returning 15% for another decade and be able to hit your numbers early and shift to a conservative AA.

If your income isn’t high enough to benefit from this the odds are any depression will impact young folks a lot more than older bogleheads with paid off houses and close to SS income.
Wishing for a full on depression is selfish, immature, and likely a display of lack of empathy and understanding of what actually happens to human beings in such a condition. The stories of the Great Depression are devastating and millions suffered terrible hardships that stayed with them forever. Wishing for that so that you can cash in on better personal equity returns is embarrassing.
+1,000
newyorker
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by newyorker »

This shall pass too
Independent George
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Independent George »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:47 pm
peskypesky wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:24 pm
PowderDay9 wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:41 pm Agreed, we need some bigger drops and for it to stay down for awhile. The US market has been way overvalued for a long time.
Yup. I'm hoping for a full-on depression. Stocks will be so cheap to accumulate.
I wish you younger folk would stop posting these comments celebrating the downturns. Some of us are older and are no longer in the early accumulation phase. The downturns are painful to us because we may not live long enough to see the full recovery.
The 'depression' comment was stupid; what are you going to buy with if you're unemployed in a deflationary environment? I think what he meant was an extended bear market, which is not at all the same thing.

That said, if the downturns are that painful to you, perhaps you should reduce your equity exposure?

I bought my condo in June 2007. Two years later, I was roughly -70k underwater and had negative net worth for the first time since I paid off my student loans. But when younger people at the office were excited at the amazing deals they were getting on their first properties, I was excited and happy for them; it was a great deal for them, and I was genuinely happy that they were able to buy at depressed prices.

I'm 45 now - old enough that an extended bear market would have a serious negative impact on my FIRE plans. Nevertheless, if someone younger than me is excited to buy at a discount, I'll be cheering right alongside them, and not scolding them for being excited about the opportunity.
nigel_ht
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nigel_ht »

newyorker wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:48 am This shall pass too
Hopefully within your lifetime :)
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burritoLover
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by burritoLover »

I wish for a depression-like equity drop only caused by negative investor sentiment and not the result of a poor economy and people losing their jobs...there, that is all-better.
Da5id
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Da5id »

If the risk part didn't ever show up there would be no equity risk premium...
deepvalleys
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by deepvalleys »

I deployed some "dry powder" on Friday - that was probably a bit early. We will retest the october lows, after that probably a bounce, but the market might end lower than that later this year. SP500 at 3900? My gut feeling based on looking at the chart, but I don't know anything.
Last edited by deepvalleys on Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Triple digit golfer »

nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:21 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 4:22 am
UpperNwGuy wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:47 pm
peskypesky wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:24 pm
PowderDay9 wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:41 pm Agreed, we need some bigger drops and for it to stay down for awhile. The US market has been way overvalued for a long time.
Yup. I'm hoping for a full-on depression. Stocks will be so cheap to accumulate.
I wish you younger folk would stop posting these comments celebrating the downturns. Some of us are older and are no longer in the early accumulation phase. The downturns are painful to us because we may not live long enough to see the full recovery.
The market has returned 15% a year for a decade, plus you guys had the greatest bond bull market in history. You older folks should be just fine. Us younger folks need some good.accumulation years. A downturn as provides us some future returns.
Eh…there’s a huge difference between wanting some buying opportunities and wishing for a full on depression.

What you want is the market returning 15% for another decade and be able to hit your numbers early and shift to a conservative AA.

If your income isn’t high enough to benefit from this the odds are any depression will impact young folks a lot more than older bogleheads with paid off houses and close to SS income.
I would never wish for a depression or anything close to it.. Several pages back, but only a couple days ago I said I'd like the S&P 500 down to 3,200 by the end of the year and then hit all time highs again 3 years later.

That's about a 33% drop from the high and 27% from today.

A retiree with a reasonable allocation would be fine in this scenario and should be absolutely prepared for it.
newyorker
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by newyorker »

nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:50 am
newyorker wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:48 am This shall pass too
Hopefully within your lifetime :)
😡
Jimsad
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Jimsad »

Right now I am still working and contributing and do not need to start drawing on my investments for at least hopefully another 10 years
But it still hurts when I lose >200k in a week
So I understand how people who are retired would feel about comments cheering on for further major declines
May be we can start a thread “I lost X number of $$ this week but still sticking to my IPS”
jimkitt
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jimkitt »

Folks need to realize everyone is in different situations. Although depressions aren't 'good', people do get rich during them. My famiily, personally, a depression doesn't really hurt since we are all retired (young) and cash heavy. Cash is king during a depressio. That being said, we are more in 'bubbles' territory. Think is almost every asset class is in bubble territory. For Bogleheads , no biggie. Most here invest to get the long term averages, which aren't affected by crashes.

As for our 'elder' retirees, I assume they have assets to get them through 10 yr periods. If they do, they are insulated, and young people have it worse since they lose jobs.
Last edited by jimkitt on Sat Jan 22, 2022 9:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
drk
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by drk »

Independent George wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:50 am The 'depression' comment was stupid; what are you going to buy with if you're unemployed in a deflationary environment? I think what he meant was an extended bear market, which is not at all the same thing.
The user who made the comment has claimed to be 55 and retired. They are "just" trolling.
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
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