U.S. stocks in free fall

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sailaway
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by sailaway »

lazynovice wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:26 am
Tdubs wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:24 am Good day for payroll auto investment.
Which means I get paid next week….
Rinvested RSUs earlier this week, if that makes you feel any better...
investor2018
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by investor2018 »

I got cash from RSU vest sale yesterday, is today is the right time to put that money into market (VTSAX)? Or wait until Monday?
MadAsgardian
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MadAsgardian »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 6:00 am this development looks serious.. if what I am reading is true this could be the whole Covid pandemic Redux, new vaccines will have to be developed, trialed and administered which could take months meanwhile lockdowns, deaths, carnage. worst case scenario of course but they arr saying the spike protein on this thing is radically different and I bet it's already on our shores somewhere now!!
It's cause for concern but this is unnecessarily alarmist.
livesoft
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by livesoft »

investor2018 wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:33 am I got cash from RSU vest sale yesterday, is today is the right time to put that money into market (VTSAX)? Or wait until Monday?
No one can predict the future, but I will do it anyway:

I predict that on Monday VTI will sell lower than it sells for any time today, but by the market close VTSAX will sell for higher than it will close today.

It will not matter to me if the above prediction turns out to be wrong.
Last edited by livesoft on Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Jimsad
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I am buying today . Anybody else ?

Post by Jimsad »

I think this is a buying opportunity
Anybody else buying ?
Vtsax100
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Vtsax100 »

investor2018 wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:33 am I got cash from RSU vest sale yesterday, is today is the right time to put that money into market (VTSAX)? Or wait until Monday?
I just placed a buy for VTSAX.
livesoft
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?

Post by livesoft »

I will likely SELL some BND today. I have not decided. Usually BND doesn't move UP by as much as it has done today without dropping back down shortly thereafter. This will create some cash to do something next week.
Last edited by livesoft on Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Jimsad
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?

Post by Jimsad »

Buying sp 500 etf and index
jebmke
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?

Post by jebmke »

I need another 20% before I hit my re-balance trigger. So, no.
Don't trust me, look it up. https://www.irs.gov/forms-instructions-and-publications
anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by anoop »

investor2018 wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:33 am I got cash from RSU vest sale yesterday, is today is the right time to put that money into market (VTSAX)? Or wait until Monday?
heads - today is right
tails - wait till monday
Last edited by anoop on Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:53 am, edited 2 times in total.
stan1
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?

Post by stan1 »

livesoft wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:38 am I will likely SELL some BND today. I have not decided.
Livesoft, so no declaration of a RBD?
Dennisl
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Dennisl »

Correction time? :twisted:

Doesn’t look like it’s gonna be enough to trigger the institutional computers to sell. Maybe next time…
Last edited by Dennisl on Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
Xrayman69
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?

Post by Xrayman69 »

My usual weekly Friday purchase today.
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Kenkat
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?

Post by Kenkat »

It’s payday today so the 401(k) contribution is going in tonight. So yes, but otherwise I don’t really make moves based on single day market fluctuations.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

peskypesky wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:42 am
marcopolo wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:15 am
peskypesky wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:11 am
marcopolo wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:09 am
peskypesky wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 1:53 am ugh. tapering talk hits futures.

I'm kicking myself because I knew this was coming.
No reason to kick yourself.
You didn't know. You had some vague notion that was too imprecise to act upon. Now in hindsight you have deluded yourself into thinking that you knew.
wrong. i knew.
LOL

Then you should definitely kick your self for not mortgaging your house to bet on it. You could retire have retired with fabulous wealth.
well, I'm already retired. I don't own a house, so I couldn't mortgage it. But I do wish I had liquidated a lot of my stocks while at ATH's.
If you knew, you should have acted... So either you didn't know for sure, or you are indeed pretty dumb. Which is it? I doubt you're that dumb. If I had a working crystal ball, I'd definitely use it. Why didn't you? Maybe because you don't have a working crystal ball?
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Ajcorpus
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?

Post by Ajcorpus »

It’s my biweekly buy day today. Lucked out with the timing. Maybe, or maybe next week would be better, who knows !
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AerialWombat
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?

Post by AerialWombat »

deleted
Last edited by AerialWombat on Fri Feb 04, 2022 2:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
This post is a work of fiction. Any similarity to real financial advice is purely coincidental.
Vtsax100
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?

Post by Vtsax100 »

Im buying VTSAX. Thought about selling some BND but nah…
tibbitts
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?

Post by tibbitts »

Jimsad wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:37 am I think this is a buying opportunity
Anybody else buying ?
Why did you feel the last time the market was at this same level that wasn't an equal or better buying opportunity?
Last edited by tibbitts on Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
minimalistmarc
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?

Post by minimalistmarc »

Jimsad wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:37 am I think this is a buying opportunity
Anybody else buying ?
Alas, no as I’m 100% equities so don’t have any money
livesoft
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?

Post by livesoft »

stan1 wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:40 am
livesoft wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:38 am I will likely SELL some BND today. I have not decided.
Livesoft, so no declaration of a RBD?
There is that Friday rule about RBDs.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

Forester wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:01 am S&P 500 will sell off down to around 4,200 then a final rally to around 5,200 Q1 2022.
Wait. Which is it? Two months ago you wrote this:
Forester wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 8:58 pm I personally guarantee that the top will be in, Q3 to Q4 this year.
Now the top will be Q1 2022? But you personally guaranteed it would happen THIS year.

You made another prediction that contradicts your previous prediction even while the previous prediction still had a chance to come true?

You're really not doing this right.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
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Kenkat
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?

Post by Kenkat »

In honor of the day and the current market:

When Black Friday comes
I'll stand down by the door
And catch the gray men when they
Dive from the fourteenth floor

When Black Friday comes
I'll collect everything I'm owed
And before my friends find out
I'll be on the road

When Black Friday falls
You know it's got to be
Don't let it fall on me

— Steely Dan, Black Friday (1975)
Last edited by Kenkat on Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
investor2018
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by investor2018 »

investor2018 wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:33 am I got cash from RSU vest sale yesterday, is today is the right time to put that money into market (VTSAX)? Or wait until Monday?
I have placed VTSAX order for 50% of the cash and remaining I will place next week. Thx!
GreendaleCC
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?

Post by GreendaleCC »

I just TLH VXUS -> VEU :)
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Yesterdaysnews
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Yesterdaysnews »

No evidence this new variant can circumvent the mRNA vaccines. Overreaction.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

Candor wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:09 am
peskypesky wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:42 am
marcopolo wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:15 am
peskypesky wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:11 am
marcopolo wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:09 am

No reason to kick yourself.
You didn't know. You had some vague notion that was too imprecise to act upon. Now in hindsight you have deluded yourself into thinking that you knew.
wrong. i knew.
LOL

Then you should definitely kick your self for not mortgaging your house to bet on it. You could retire have retired with fabulous wealth.
well, I'm already retired. I don't own a house, so I couldn't mortgage it. But I do wish I had liquidated a lot of my stocks while at ATH's.
If you are a proponent of market timing and were considering "liquidating a lot of my stocks" because of something you "knew" and that has now come to be, I would think doing so at around 2% from an ATH would be considered a great success, no? 2% is nothing in the scheme of things.

I am not a proponent of large market timing movements but I just have a hard time understating whey you are kicking yourself over this. Do you think the market will only go down a couple percent and you are worried that you missed that?
That's a pretty good point. Market is up 20% or so for the year... Down 2.5%, and you sell today, you still lock in a bunch of gains.

Unless, this 2.5% drop is it and it all goes back up on Monday. What does your crystal ball tell you? If the market will continue to drop, you can still sell today. If it will head back up, stay pat.

If you don't know (and you don't know), you should pick an Asset Allocation that you can hold through ups and downs and then you no longer have to worry about the next drop or crash or trying to guess what the market will do next week.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
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3CT_Paddler
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 3CT_Paddler »

HomerJ wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:52 am
Forester wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:01 am S&P 500 will sell off down to around 4,200 then a final rally to around 5,200 Q1 2022.
Wait. Which is it? Two months ago you wrote this:
Forester wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 8:58 pm I personally guarantee that the top will be in, Q3 to Q4 this year.
Now the top will be Q1 2022? But you personally guaranteed it would happen THIS year.

You made another prediction that contradicts your previous prediction even while the previous prediction still had a chance to come true?

You're really not doing this right.
On the contrary, he is doing this exactly right. You can refer back to the right calls, and ignore the bad ones. He has watched enough CNBC to know the game. :D
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Taylor Larimore
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?

Post by Taylor Larimore »

Jimsad wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:37 am I think this is a buying opportunity
Anybody else buying ?
Jimsad:

You sound like a market-timer which is usually a mistake:

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Taylor_ ... ing_quotes

Best wishes.
Taylor
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bligh
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?

Post by bligh »

I buy when I have money to invest.

Dont keep any 'dry powder' to act on days such as this.

I do have cash reserves but the market would have to drop a lot more to tempt me to reduce those.
dukeblue219
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?

Post by dukeblue219 »

Jimsad wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:37 am I think this is a buying opportunity
Anybody else buying ?
Do you run out to buy milk when the store is having a 3% off sale? I don't... but if it's my regular day to buy groceries I appreciate the savings.
EnjoyIt
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by EnjoyIt »

lazynovice wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:17 am
Linkin06 wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 8:59 am
livesoft wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 8:56 am
Linkin06 wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 8:49 am I was just thinking why exclude fridays? is it cuz momentum could carry?
Backtesting.
Oh, what did backtesting it find?
My guess is that after a Friday that looks like an RBD, Monday will be “badder”
If I remember my RBD rules, Fridays are off the table.
You can't have a RBD on Friday.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

Yesterdaysnews wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:58 am No evidence this new variant can circumvent the mRNA vaccines. Overreaction.
Yep.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

3CT_Paddler wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:59 am
HomerJ wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:52 am
Forester wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:01 am S&P 500 will sell off down to around 4,200 then a final rally to around 5,200 Q1 2022.
Wait. Which is it? Two months ago you wrote this:
Forester wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 8:58 pm I personally guarantee that the top will be in, Q3 to Q4 this year.
Now the top will be Q1 2022? But you personally guaranteed it would happen THIS year.

You made another prediction that contradicts your previous prediction even while the previous prediction still had a chance to come true?

You're really not doing this right.
On the contrary, he is doing this exactly right. You can refer back to the right calls, and ignore the bad ones. He has watched enough CNBC to know the game. :D
Ah, but HERE we have the records and are willing to call him on them. Unlike CNBC. I've got ALL the Forester greatest hits saved. Here's just a few.

:sharebeer
Forester wrote: Wed May 13, 2020 10:43 am In all serious this is a good time to make portfolio changes if one feels they're overly exposed. SPX 2800 is a dignified exit point.
Forester wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:57 am Final official prediction. I will not post in this thread again if I am proved mistaken.

S&P 500 - has topped for the short & medium term. Not going above 3,800.
Forester wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 6:20 pm Mission Impossible 7: S&P 500 @ 4,000
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
UpperNwGuy
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?

Post by UpperNwGuy »

I will be buying on Wednesday December 1 as I do on the first of every month.
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Kenkat
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Kenkat »

Welcome back “U.S. stocks in free fall” thread. It’s been awhile.
Kookaburra
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?

Post by Kookaburra »

tibbitts wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:48 am
Jimsad wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:37 am I think this is a buying opportunity
Anybody else buying ?
Why did you feel the last time the market was at this same level that wasn't an equal or better buying opportunity?
Exactly! Today’s drop took us all the way back to … Oct. 26.
clip651
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by clip651 »

The trick is there is no promise of what happens if the predictions (of Forester) are wrong. Like most people's predictions, they usually are wrong, and might occasionally be right by chance here and there.

When a store makes a guarantee, you get your money back or can exchange the product you bought or whatever.

When someone posts a "guarantee" on bogleheads, and it doesn't work out, we get nothing, other than the chance to point out the errant predictions. Hopefully no one is making real trades in their portfolios based on these "guarantees," since no one will give them their money back if the prediction is wrong.
Last edited by clip651 on Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
DoTheMath
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by DoTheMath »

investor2018 wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:33 am I got cash from RSU vest sale yesterday, is today is the right time to put that money into market (VTSAX)? Or wait until Monday?
The right answer is half today, half on Monday. This takes all the worry out of doing the "wrong" thing. :beer
“I am losing precious days. I am degenerating into a machine for making money. I am learning nothing in this trivial world of men. I must break away and get out into the mountains...” -- John Muir
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tooluser
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?

Post by tooluser »

For those who would like to play along with, or better understand what a RBD is, there is this:
https://www.gebele.com/charts-and-graphs/rbd-alerts

Searching old Bogleheads posts probably provides a better but less succinct explanation.
viewtopic.php?t=337885
investor2018
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by investor2018 »

DoTheMath wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:14 am
investor2018 wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:33 am I got cash from RSU vest sale yesterday, is today is the right time to put that money into market (VTSAX)? Or wait until Monday?
The right answer is half today, half on Monday. This takes all the worry out of doing the "wrong" thing. :beer
Based on various suggestions, yes, this exactly I am doing. I have placed buy order (VTSAX) for 50% of the cash today and plan to do rest on Monday. Thanks.
BitTooAggressive
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?

Post by BitTooAggressive »

Kenkat wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:42 am It’s payday today so the 401(k) contribution is going in tonight. So yes, but otherwise I don’t really make moves based on single day market fluctuations.
My paycheck 401k usually takes 4 days to transact.
Yours is fast.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ChinchillaWhiplash »

It looks like all stocks are in a free fall. Not just US. Guessing International and EM will be hit the hardest, but who knows :confused
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nisiprius
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?

Post by nisiprius »

What do you know about SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.529 that readers of The Wall Street Journal don't already know?

"Stocks, Oil Sell Off on New Covid Variant"

The New Covid-19 Variant Spreading in Southern Africa: What to Know
The variant, known as B.1.1.529, has around 50 mutations, some of which may help it evade vaccines and make it more contagious....

The first virus sample containing the B.1.1.529 variant came this month from a person in Botswana, which borders South Africa. Soon after, scientists in Hong Kong detected the variant in a traveler who had arrived from South Africa and B.1.1.529 started showing up in samples from South Africa’s Gauteng province.

In contrast to most other prominent variants, which can be detected only through time-consuming and costly genome sequencing, the presence of B.1.1.529 also gets flagged in some of the commonly used polymerase chain reaction, or PCR, tests. That makes it easier to track and is one of the reasons why South African scientists were able to pick up on its fast spread in the country so quickly....

Already, the variant is driving an exponential increase in infections in South Africa, from less than 300 new daily cases just over two weeks ago to more than 2,400 new cases on Thursday. That, scientists say, suggests that it may be more contagious than the Delta variant that was until recently dominant in the country....
My personal guess is that a lot of people think the market is overreacting and a lot of people think it is under-reacting, and the drop in prices is where they meet in the middle in an auction. I don't have any good reason to think it is too high or too low.

Why do you think the price is too low, other than the fact that it is lower than it was?
Last edited by nisiprius on Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:37 am, edited 10 times in total.
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btq96r
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?

Post by btq96r »

I thought this thread was going to be about Black Friday retail sales...didn't even know the US financial markets were open today.

No buying for me, I'm not a buy the dip type. Usually I just toss in excess funds mid-month, but since I already met my goals for the year, aside from the last few payroll withholdings, I'm starting to set aside for tax time.

Besides, even money the S&P closes at an all time high next Friday.
Last edited by btq96r on Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
muffins14
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?

Post by muffins14 »

Sadly I invested yesterday, so today was just a TLH day
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

DoTheMath wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:14 am
investor2018 wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:33 am I got cash from RSU vest sale yesterday, is today is the right time to put that money into market (VTSAX)? Or wait until Monday?
The right answer is half today, half on Monday. This takes all the worry out of doing the "wrong" thing. :beer
Well unless the market starts a 50% crash on Tuesday.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

Good day to buy. There is no evidence this evades vaccines or that this is more transmissible than Delta.
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Harry Livermore
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?

Post by Harry Livermore »

I sold some individual company winners (purchased in the 2020 crash) over the last month, and am sitting tight on the kitty. Today's downturn does not thrill me. Not enough anyway...
I plan to put it into VTI (this is in my Etrade account) when I am satisfied things are "on sale".
I'm down to a half-dozen individual company holdings at this point.
And yes, I am market timing. I understand that. But the other 99% of the money I have ever invested has been DCA, automated monthly investments with Vanguard, quarterly checks written to DRIP plans, for many many years. The amount of "dry powder" I sit on is small, and the idea of waiting for a "large correction" is the closest thing to entertainment or illusion of control in my investing life. Don't judge!
Also, of note: I recently sold some business equipment and passed the proceeds through to myself (LLC, Schedule C filer) That money went straight to work in VTSAX.
Anyway...
Cheers
Jimsad
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?

Post by Jimsad »

Taylor Larimore wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:59 am
Jimsad wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:37 am I think this is a buying opportunity
Anybody else buying ?
Jimsad:

You sound like a market-timer which is usually a mistake:

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Taylor_ ... ing_quotes

Best wishes.
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "I've said, 'Stay-the-course' a thousand times, and I meant it every time."
I always keep a reserve and buy dips with 0.5 % of my portfolio .
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