U.S. stocks in free fall

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hnd
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by hnd »

I sold 90% of my ARKK the first week of September. I bought into it end of April 2020 and again in Oct 2020. I sold the April lot and much of the October.

The more and more I've read on Cathy Wood the more I've soured.
dknightd
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by dknightd »

I'm tired of the up and down, bouncing around
Retired 2019. So far, so good. I want to wake up every morning. But I want to die in my sleep. Just another conundrum. I think the solution might be afternoon naps ;)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Nathan Drake »

dknightd wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 9:42 am I'm tired of the up and down, bouncing around
That’s just the calm before the storm

Same holding pattern as 2000 :)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by dougger5 »

sg1223 wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 6:10 pm Very proud of the fact that I was able to purchase 4 shares of VTI this morning. I don't make or earn much. I tend to only purchase 1 to two shares per bi-weekly or even month. I now have 30 shares. A minuscule amount to many, a major accomplishment for me in my journey so far.

Not upset at the price I bought it at, I wonder how the market will look tomorrow.
I'm the same in our taxable account. We could buy more, but we're trying to get our EF "fully-funded" and pumping most reserves into that and our Roths. But I feel like lightly funding a taxable brokerage account gives us another tier of EF. Currently 32 shares VXUS, 13 shares VTI, and 65 shares VT. So yes, I look at it more like collecting shares than collecting $$ :happy
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vanbogle59
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by vanbogle59 »

atdharris wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 9:36 am
S4C5 wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 9:32 am as these are viewed as value plays again.
some ARKK and some Pinterest

Apparently "value" can mean many different things. :confused
S4C5
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by S4C5 »

hnd wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 9:40 am I sold 90% of my ARKK the first week of September. I bought into it end of April 2020 and again in Oct 2020. I sold the April lot and much of the October.

The more and more I've read on Cathy Wood the more I've soured.
I agree. I don't want to have anything to do with her anymore. Unfortunately I bought in February 2021 and continued to average down throughout the year.

However, what's happening now is sector wide. To me, it doesn't make sense to dump ARKG when it just behaves like a combination of XBI and ARKK.
The individual stocks I have like PLTR I am more concerned about and am probably going to TLH out of these.
Gundy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Gundy »

dknightd wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 9:42 am I'm tired of the up and down, bouncing around
The good news is we're almost done with that.

Declines across the board of 60%-75% are in our near future.
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thenextguy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by thenextguy »

RIP Growth
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by minesweep »

Visitor76 wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 9:30 am
Vtsax100 wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 9:19 am
MortgageOnBlack wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 11:36 pm
fanmail wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:29 pm
peskypesky wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 6:50 pm

Sucker. You should always wait til the THIRD dip. :mrgreen:
Another version is ‘I bought the first dip, I bought the second dip. I was the third dip.’
I'm waiting for the 10th dip and I'm going all in
Amateurs. Just wait and buy the biggest dip.
This is why I am not a fan of the 'Buy The Dip' mentality. It is always better to Dollar Cost Average in a down or sideways market.
Moo Moo Moo Blue moon dip di dip di dip Moo Moo Moo Blue moon dip di dip di dip
Waaa wah waaaa waaa
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Nathan Drake
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Nathan Drake »

Stagflation is here
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thenextguy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by thenextguy »

Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:07 am Stagflation is here
With a 4.2% unemployment rate? That’s not stagflation.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Nathan Drake »

thenextguy wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:13 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:07 am Stagflation is here
With a 4.2% unemployment rate? That’s not stagflation.
If you believe in the official unemployment figures despite able bodied workers dropping out of the labor force at some of the highest levels seen.
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atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

I guess Powell's comments really did kill growth stocks. Does not look like the bond market is reacting as rates remain pretty flat. 10 year is down to 1.39%
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Whakamole »

I am torn between selling for the tax losses now, or waiting a few weeks in case the market drops even more. There are only so many TLH partners.
MindBogler
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MindBogler »

thenextguy wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:13 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:07 am Stagflation is here
With a 4.2% unemployment rate? That’s not stagflation.
That figure is misleading unless interpreted with the Labor Force Participation Rate: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

Whakamole wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:21 am I am torn between selling for the tax losses now, or waiting a few weeks in case the market drops even more. There are only so many TLH partners.
I do wonder if we'll see a "santa clause" rally or if we will see a repeat of 2018 when we crashed until Christmas Eve.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by S4C5 »

Whakamole wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:21 am I am torn between selling for the tax losses now, or waiting a few weeks in case the market drops even more. There are only so many TLH partners.
Obviously you are not the only one thinking this. Maybe as we approach year end with people holding out TLH selling will increase and it will only get worse. Maybe better to sell everything in the green now and balance it out with as much red as you can and sit it out until the new year. I don't know.
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

MindBogler wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:23 am
thenextguy wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:13 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:07 am Stagflation is here
With a 4.2% unemployment rate? That’s not stagflation.
That figure is misleading unless interpreted with the Labor Force Participation Rate: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
I don't understand what is going on in the labor market. Unemployment benefits ended in September, yet people are not going back to work. How are they surviving?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

atdharris wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:26 am
MindBogler wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:23 am
thenextguy wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:13 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:07 am Stagflation is here
With a 4.2% unemployment rate? That’s not stagflation.
That figure is misleading unless interpreted with the Labor Force Participation Rate: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
I don't understand what is going on in the labor market. Unemployment benefits ended in September, yet people are not going back to work. How are they surviving?
Unemployment checks were months behind when getting deployed. Most are still getting paid because of the delays.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Crushtheturtle »

On Nasdaq, highs set in early September holding (for now).
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MindBogler »

atdharris wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:26 am I don't understand what is going on in the labor market. Unemployment benefits ended in September, yet people are not going back to work. How are they surviving?
My theory is that there were many dual income households that are now choosing to live more frugally on a single income. Some younger people may have moved back in with their parents. I also agree that there is still some support from unemployment but it can't explain the magnitude of what is going on. Almost every restaurant and big box store in my area has a sign out front saying they are understaffed. :confused
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

MindBogler wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:33 am
atdharris wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:26 am I don't understand what is going on in the labor market. Unemployment benefits ended in September, yet people are not going back to work. How are they surviving?
My theory is that there were many dual income households that are now choosing to live more frugally on a single income. Some younger people may have moved back in with their parents. I also agree that there is still some support from unemployment but it can't explain the magnitude of what is going on. Almost every restaurant and big box store in my area has a sign out front saying they are understaffed. :confused
Yep, everywhere in my city is understaffed. Restaurants are begging people to come work. Same with retail. A lot of places are closing down during the evenings or for entire days because they have no staff to run the business. Even my firm is understaffed at the entry level positions.
thenextguy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by thenextguy »

MindBogler wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:23 am
thenextguy wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:13 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:07 am Stagflation is here
With a 4.2% unemployment rate? That’s not stagflation.
That figure is misleading unless interpreted with the Labor Force Participation Rate: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
People choosing not to return to the labor force is even less compatible with the idea we’re experiencing stagflation.

Also, the participation rate nearly always falls during recession. This isn’t a new phenomenon.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Nver2Late »

MindBogler wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:33 am My theory is that there were many dual income households that are now choosing to live more frugally on a single income.
I think this is the main reason. Being a single income family since the early 90s, I think once people try it, it is just easier to raise a family and you keep a larger percentage of your earnings due to lower taxes.

When ACA was proposed, I thought that would be the main effect of having health insurance de-coupled from the workplace, but it has taken more time for people to embrace it. I thought for sure it would lead to a brain-drain with many 50-somethings leaving the workforce or working for themselves, no longer having to work for health insurance. I personally wasn't a fan of ACA, but it has proven to be a big benefit for our family and allowed me to leave megacorp and do my own thing, much to our personal time and financial benefit.

Looks like we might see an end of the year, stocks on discount opportunity here.
"Better is the enemy of good." Good is good.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Nathan Drake »

thenextguy wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:41 am
MindBogler wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:23 am
thenextguy wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:13 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:07 am Stagflation is here
With a 4.2% unemployment rate? That’s not stagflation.
That figure is misleading unless interpreted with the Labor Force Participation Rate: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
People choosing not to return to the labor force is even less compatible with the idea we’re experiencing stagflation.

Also, the participation rate nearly always falls during recession. This isn’t a new phenomenon.
No it’s not, it’s just something we’ve not encountered

Stagflation is low employment, low growth, and high inflation

We are seeing all of these factors combined. It’s irrelevant whether the real unemployment is self inflicted or market driven
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atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

Nasdaq may not hold 15k today
MindBogler
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MindBogler »

Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:48 am
thenextguy wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:41 am People choosing not to return to the labor force is even less compatible with the idea we’re experiencing stagflation.

Also, the participation rate nearly always falls during recession. This isn’t a new phenomenon.
No it’s not, it’s just something we’ve not encountered

Stagflation is low employment, low growth, and high inflation

We are seeing all of these factors combined. It’s irrelevant whether the real unemployment is self inflicted or market driven
Agreed!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

thenextguy wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:00 am RIP Growth
Growth's response:
"I get knocked down, but I get up again
You are never gonna keep me down"

Seriously, how many times have we seen growth get knocked down, only to come roaring back? It's actually a little tiresome.
thenextguy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by thenextguy »

Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:48 am
thenextguy wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:41 am
MindBogler wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:23 am
thenextguy wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:13 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:07 am Stagflation is here
With a 4.2% unemployment rate? That’s not stagflation.
That figure is misleading unless interpreted with the Labor Force Participation Rate: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
People choosing not to return to the labor force is even less compatible with the idea we’re experiencing stagflation.

Also, the participation rate nearly always falls during recession. This isn’t a new phenomenon.
No it’s not, it’s just something we’ve not encountered

Stagflation is low employment, low growth, and high inflation

We are seeing all of these factors combined. It’s irrelevant whether the real unemployment is self inflicted or market driven
Completely wrong. Stagflation is high unemployment. We do not have that.

Slow economic growth. We do not have that.

High inflation? At the moment inflation is elevated, yes.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Nathan Drake »

thenextguy wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:56 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:48 am
thenextguy wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:41 am
MindBogler wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:23 am
thenextguy wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:13 am

With a 4.2% unemployment rate? That’s not stagflation.
That figure is misleading unless interpreted with the Labor Force Participation Rate: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
People choosing not to return to the labor force is even less compatible with the idea we’re experiencing stagflation.

Also, the participation rate nearly always falls during recession. This isn’t a new phenomenon.
No it’s not, it’s just something we’ve not encountered

Stagflation is low employment, low growth, and high inflation

We are seeing all of these factors combined. It’s irrelevant whether the real unemployment is self inflicted or market driven
Completely wrong. Stagflation is high unemployment. We do not have that.

Slow economic growth. We do not have that.

High inflation? At the moment inflation is elevated, yes.
We do have high unemployment, it’s just underreported

We do have rapidly decelerating growth coming out of the short term pandemic spike from lows

Continuation of self inflicted labor force dropouts will further reduce growth and keep inflation elevated
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atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

Crashing through the September highs now in the Nasdaq
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:58 am We do have high unemployment, it’s just underreported
By choice.

Completely different than when people want a job but can't find a job.

There are plenty of jobs.
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Candor
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Candor »

Robot Monster wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:54 am
thenextguy wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:00 am RIP Growth
Growth's response:
"I get knocked down, but I get up again
You are never gonna keep me down"

Seriously, how many times have we seen growth get knocked down, only to come roaring back? It's actually a little tiresome.
Just lots of whiskey, vodka, lager, cider and reminiscing in the interim.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

Robot Monster wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:54 am
thenextguy wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:00 am RIP Growth
Growth's response:
"I get knocked down, but I get up again
You are never gonna keep me down"

Seriously, how many times have we seen growth get knocked down, only to come roaring back? It's actually a little tiresome.
Wrap your mind around the fact that growth could stay down for 5-10+ years... Yes, it will get back up again, but it won't always jump right back up.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Nathan Drake
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Nathan Drake »

HomerJ wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 11:04 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:58 am We do have high unemployment, it’s just underreported
By choice.

Completely different than when people want a job but can't find a job.

There are plenty of jobs.
Not different at all from a stagflation point of view
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staustin
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by staustin »

atdharris wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:25 am
Whakamole wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:21 am I am torn between selling for the tax losses now, or waiting a few weeks in case the market drops even more. There are only so many TLH partners.
I do wonder if we'll see a "santa clause" rally or if we will see a repeat of 2018 when we crashed until Christmas Eve.
2008 is a better comparison of economic environments.. it will be interesting to see how well investors hold up / stay invested if we have a steep, lengthy decline.
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

HomerJ wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 11:07 am
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:54 am
thenextguy wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:00 am RIP Growth
Growth's response:
"I get knocked down, but I get up again
You are never gonna keep me down"

Seriously, how many times have we seen growth get knocked down, only to come roaring back? It's actually a little tiresome.
Wrap your mind around the fact that growth could stay down for 5-10+ years... Yes, it will get back up again, but it won't always jump right back up.
The operative word there is "could". I mean, aliens could land on my front lawn! C'mon now! :wink: I actually agree with you in the sense I don't want to encourage anyone to pile into growth, without understanding that very real risk you are very right to point out.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Visitor76 »

Nver2Late wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:47 am
MindBogler wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:33 am My theory is that there were many dual income households that are now choosing to live more frugally on a single income.
I think this is the main reason. Being a single income family since the early 90s, I think once people try it, it is just easier to raise a family and you keep a larger percentage of your earnings due to lower taxes.

When ACA was proposed, I thought that would be the main effect of having health insurance de-coupled from the workplace, but it has taken more time for people to embrace it. I thought for sure it would lead to a brain-drain with many 50-somethings leaving the workforce or working for themselves, no longer having to work for health insurance. I personally wasn't a fan of ACA, but it has proven to be a big benefit for our family and allowed me to leave megacorp and do my own thing, much to our personal time and financial benefit.

Looks like we might see an end of the year, stocks on discount opportunity here.
THIS. I know from our own household my wife took a hiatus from the workforce 4 1/2 years ago to pursue a career change and to start our family. Over that time our family of 4 have been living comfortably on my government salary and benefits.

While we do not need the ACA, I can see its benefit to households drawing dividends from a 2 to 3 million portfolio.
Wealth is not about having a lot of money; it's about having a lot of options.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

Visitor76 wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 11:33 am
Nver2Late wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:47 am
MindBogler wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:33 am My theory is that there were many dual income households that are now choosing to live more frugally on a single income.
I think this is the main reason. Being a single income family since the early 90s, I think once people try it, it is just easier to raise a family and you keep a larger percentage of your earnings due to lower taxes.

When ACA was proposed, I thought that would be the main effect of having health insurance de-coupled from the workplace, but it has taken more time for people to embrace it. I thought for sure it would lead to a brain-drain with many 50-somethings leaving the workforce or working for themselves, no longer having to work for health insurance. I personally wasn't a fan of ACA, but it has proven to be a big benefit for our family and allowed me to leave megacorp and do my own thing, much to our personal time and financial benefit.

Looks like we might see an end of the year, stocks on discount opportunity here.
THIS. I know from our own household my wife took a hiatus from the workforce 4 1/2 years ago to pursue a career change and to start our family. Over that time our family of 4 have been living comfortably on my government salary and benefits.

While we do not need the ACA, I can see its benefit to households drawing dividends from a 2 to 3 million portfolio.
Most American household are not even close to $500,000.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MishkaWorries »

atdharris wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:39 am
MindBogler wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:33 am
atdharris wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:26 am I don't understand what is going on in the labor market. Unemployment benefits ended in September, yet people are not going back to work. How are they surviving?
My theory is that there were many dual income households that are now choosing to live more frugally on a single income. Some younger people may have moved back in with their parents. I also agree that there is still some support from unemployment but it can't explain the magnitude of what is going on. Almost every restaurant and big box store in my area has a sign out front saying they are understaffed. :confused
Yep, everywhere in my city is understaffed. Restaurants are begging people to come work. Same with retail. A lot of places are closing down during the evenings or for entire days because they have no staff to run the business. Even my firm is understaffed at the entry level positions.
The Amazon warehouse close to me always has a help wanted sign out front. For the longest time it was $12.50 per hour but they raised it to $15.00 before the pandemic.

Now it's $23.00 per hour.
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S4C5
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by S4C5 »

staustin wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 11:16 am
atdharris wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:25 am
Whakamole wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:21 am I am torn between selling for the tax losses now, or waiting a few weeks in case the market drops even more. There are only so many TLH partners.
I do wonder if we'll see a "santa clause" rally or if we will see a repeat of 2018 when we crashed until Christmas Eve.
2008 is a better comparison of economic environments.. it will be interesting to see how well investors hold up / stay invested if we have a steep, lengthy decline.
2008 was bad in a totally different way.

It's hard to know if this is just the beginning like late 2007 or just swinging of the growth run up, but it does kind of feel like a house of cards with a low threshhold to initiate massive panic selling. On the other hand, literally everyone has been screaming about the impending market crash for the past 6 months. That's not typically what happens before market crashes.
The annoying thing about this market is the crash of growth being hidden with mild change in the S&P due to a handful of ultracaps. What happens if the bottom falls out and the ultracaps plummet too? How much farther does growth have to fall?

I challenge anybody to explain what effect the announcement on 12/15 will have and what's priced in and what's not.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by marcopolo »

Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:58 am
thenextguy wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:56 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:48 am
thenextguy wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:41 am
MindBogler wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:23 am
That figure is misleading unless interpreted with the Labor Force Participation Rate: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
People choosing not to return to the labor force is even less compatible with the idea we’re experiencing stagflation.

Also, the participation rate nearly always falls during recession. This isn’t a new phenomenon.
No it’s not, it’s just something we’ve not encountered

Stagflation is low employment, low growth, and high inflation

We are seeing all of these factors combined. It’s irrelevant whether the real unemployment is self inflicted or market driven
Completely wrong. Stagflation is high unemployment. We do not have that.

Slow economic growth. We do not have that.

High inflation? At the moment inflation is elevated, yes.
We do have high unemployment, it’s just underreported

We do have rapidly decelerating growth coming out of the short term pandemic spike from lows

Continuation of self inflicted labor force dropouts will further reduce growth and keep inflation elevated
I don't think that word means what you think it means.
I voluntarily choose not to work. I am not "unemployed"
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
thenextguy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by thenextguy »

marcopolo wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 11:49 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:58 am
thenextguy wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:56 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:48 am
thenextguy wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:41 am

People choosing not to return to the labor force is even less compatible with the idea we’re experiencing stagflation.

Also, the participation rate nearly always falls during recession. This isn’t a new phenomenon.
No it’s not, it’s just something we’ve not encountered

Stagflation is low employment, low growth, and high inflation

We are seeing all of these factors combined. It’s irrelevant whether the real unemployment is self inflicted or market driven
Completely wrong. Stagflation is high unemployment. We do not have that.

Slow economic growth. We do not have that.

High inflation? At the moment inflation is elevated, yes.
We do have high unemployment, it’s just underreported

We do have rapidly decelerating growth coming out of the short term pandemic spike from lows

Continuation of self inflicted labor force dropouts will further reduce growth and keep inflation elevated
I don't think that word means what you think it means.
I voluntarily choose not to work. I am not "unemployed"
Some people like to redefine words so they fit their doomer outlook.
marcopolo
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by marcopolo »

atdharris wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:26 am
MindBogler wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:23 am
thenextguy wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:13 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:07 am Stagflation is here
With a 4.2% unemployment rate? That’s not stagflation.
That figure is misleading unless interpreted with the Labor Force Participation Rate: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
I don't understand what is going on in the labor market. Unemployment benefits ended in September, yet people are not going back to work. How are they surviving?
I wonder if it is also affected by more people turning to gig economy jobs and being missed in the employment numbers?
If you leave your W2 job at Starbucks to become a TikTok influencer, that may look like you are part of the "great resignation" that is going on right now.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
MindBogler
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MindBogler »

marcopolo wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 12:00 pm I wonder if it is also affected by more people turning to gig economy jobs and being missed in the employment numbers?
If you leave your W2 job at Starbucks to become a TikTok influencer, that may look like you are part of the "great resignation" that is going on right now.
I wonder if the Fed is including people on 1099s as employed or not? Do they really only capture W-2 payroll?
thenextguy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by thenextguy »

MindBogler wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 12:09 pm
marcopolo wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 12:00 pm I wonder if it is also affected by more people turning to gig economy jobs and being missed in the employment numbers?
If you leave your W2 job at Starbucks to become a TikTok influencer, that may look like you are part of the "great resignation" that is going on right now.
I wonder if the Fed is including people on 1099s as employed or not? Do they really only capture W-2 payroll?
The Household Survey, which is what the unemployment rate is from, would capture those people as employed.
marcopolo
Posts: 8445
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by marcopolo »

thenextguy wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 12:12 pm
MindBogler wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 12:09 pm
marcopolo wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 12:00 pm I wonder if it is also affected by more people turning to gig economy jobs and being missed in the employment numbers?
If you leave your W2 job at Starbucks to become a TikTok influencer, that may look like you are part of the "great resignation" that is going on right now.
I wonder if the Fed is including people on 1099s as employed or not? Do they really only capture W-2 payroll?
The Household Survey, which is what the unemployment rate is from, would capture those people as employed.
They do eventually get captured, but I think there is a lag.
When they leave their W2 job, that gets reported pretty quickly as a resignation. But, no one is reporting that they became a TikTok Influencer. That shows up when a 1099 is issued many months later.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
Nathan Drake
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Nathan Drake »

marcopolo wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 11:49 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:58 am
thenextguy wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:56 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:48 am
thenextguy wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:41 am

People choosing not to return to the labor force is even less compatible with the idea we’re experiencing stagflation.

Also, the participation rate nearly always falls during recession. This isn’t a new phenomenon.
No it’s not, it’s just something we’ve not encountered

Stagflation is low employment, low growth, and high inflation

We are seeing all of these factors combined. It’s irrelevant whether the real unemployment is self inflicted or market driven
Completely wrong. Stagflation is high unemployment. We do not have that.

Slow economic growth. We do not have that.

High inflation? At the moment inflation is elevated, yes.
We do have high unemployment, it’s just underreported

We do have rapidly decelerating growth coming out of the short term pandemic spike from lows

Continuation of self inflicted labor force dropouts will further reduce growth and keep inflation elevated
I don't think that word means what you think it means.
I voluntarily choose not to work. I am not "unemployed"
Okay, so clearly people deciding not to work won’t impact the economy just because it was your decision
20% VOO | 20% VXUS | 20% AVUV | 20% AVDV | 20% AVES
thenextguy
Posts: 717
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:58 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by thenextguy »

marcopolo wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 12:17 pm
thenextguy wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 12:12 pm
MindBogler wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 12:09 pm
marcopolo wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 12:00 pm I wonder if it is also affected by more people turning to gig economy jobs and being missed in the employment numbers?
If you leave your W2 job at Starbucks to become a TikTok influencer, that may look like you are part of the "great resignation" that is going on right now.
I wonder if the Fed is including people on 1099s as employed or not? Do they really only capture W-2 payroll?
The Household Survey, which is what the unemployment rate is from, would capture those people as employed.
They do eventually get captured, but I think there is a lag.
When they leave their W2 job, that gets reported pretty quickly as a resignation. But, no one is reporting that they became a TikTok Influencer. That shows up when a 1099 is issued many months later.
They are reporting that they’re a TikTok influencer. That’s what the household survey does.

All monthly employment data is from surveys. A survey of businesses and a survey of households.
Last edited by thenextguy on Fri Dec 03, 2021 12:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
marcopolo
Posts: 8445
Joined: Sat Dec 03, 2016 9:22 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by marcopolo »

Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 12:20 pm
marcopolo wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 11:49 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:58 am
thenextguy wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:56 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:48 am

No it’s not, it’s just something we’ve not encountered

Stagflation is low employment, low growth, and high inflation

We are seeing all of these factors combined. It’s irrelevant whether the real unemployment is self inflicted or market driven
Completely wrong. Stagflation is high unemployment. We do not have that.

Slow economic growth. We do not have that.

High inflation? At the moment inflation is elevated, yes.
We do have high unemployment, it’s just underreported

We do have rapidly decelerating growth coming out of the short term pandemic spike from lows

Continuation of self inflicted labor force dropouts will further reduce growth and keep inflation elevated
I don't think that word means what you think it means.
I voluntarily choose not to work. I am not "unemployed"
Okay, so clearly people deciding not to work won’t impact the economy just because it was your decision
The impacts are quite different than when there is little demand for workers.

Unless the rules of how supply and demand.work has changed recently.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
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