But neither is the market, and I'm not complaining!ThereAreNoGurus wrote: ↑Thu Apr 01, 2021 3:55 pmviewtopic.php?p=5766473#p5766473Final official prediction. I will not post in this thread again if I am proved mistaken.
Looks like Forester is not a man of his/her word.
And is it 2030 already????
Forester sock-puppet predicts SPY won't hit 400 until 2030!
viewtopic.php?p=5852645#p5852645
*LOL*
U.S. stocks in free fall
- Doom&Gloom
- Posts: 5417
- Joined: Thu May 08, 2014 3:36 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
-
- Posts: 16054
- Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Looks like Forester should catch the next train out of Bogleheadville, before the townsfolk give him the Game of Thrones treatment... Parading him naked in the streets, following him and chanting "Shame! Shame! Shame!" while ringing a bell...
I love he gets some people riled up on the UP/ DOWN threads... all while posting seemingly-genuine and serious comments on multiple other threads.
I love he gets some people riled up on the UP/ DOWN threads... all while posting seemingly-genuine and serious comments on multiple other threads.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
We love him. Whenever he predicts the end of the bull market, stocks soar.OohLaLa wrote: ↑Thu Apr 01, 2021 5:51 pm Looks like Forester should catch the next train out of Bogleheadville, before the townsfolk give him the Game of Thrones treatment... Parading him naked in the streets, following him and chanting "Shame! Shame! Shame!" while ringing a bell...
I love he gets some people riled up on the UP/ DOWN threads... all while posting seemingly-genuine and serious comments on multiple other threads.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
He makes me giggle.OohLaLa wrote: ↑Thu Apr 01, 2021 5:51 pm Looks like Forester should catch the next train out of Bogleheadville, before the townsfolk give him the Game of Thrones treatment... Parading him naked in the streets, following him and chanting "Shame! Shame! Shame!" while ringing a bell...
I love he gets some people riled up on the UP/ DOWN threads... all while posting seemingly-genuine and serious comments on multiple other threads.
Especially on the soaring / free fall threads, people take it too seriously.
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
- ThereAreNoGurus
- Posts: 970
- Joined: Fri Jan 24, 2014 10:41 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I think Forester takes his predictions seriously. Most of the rest of us not so much.watchnerd wrote: ↑Thu Apr 01, 2021 6:14 pmHe makes me giggle.OohLaLa wrote: ↑Thu Apr 01, 2021 5:51 pm Looks like Forester should catch the next train out of Bogleheadville, before the townsfolk give him the Game of Thrones treatment... Parading him naked in the streets, following him and chanting "Shame! Shame! Shame!" while ringing a bell...
I love he gets some people riled up on the UP/ DOWN threads... all while posting seemingly-genuine and serious comments on multiple other threads.
Especially on the soaring / free fall threads, people take it too seriously.
Trade the news and you will lose.
-
- Posts: 16054
- Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
If Forester did, then he wouldn't be coming back here as he said he'd leave.ThereAreNoGurus wrote: ↑Thu Apr 01, 2021 6:23 pmI think Forester takes his predictions seriously. Most of the rest of us not so much.watchnerd wrote: ↑Thu Apr 01, 2021 6:14 pmHe makes me giggle.OohLaLa wrote: ↑Thu Apr 01, 2021 5:51 pm Looks like Forester should catch the next train out of Bogleheadville, before the townsfolk give him the Game of Thrones treatment... Parading him naked in the streets, following him and chanting "Shame! Shame! Shame!" while ringing a bell...
I love he gets some people riled up on the UP/ DOWN threads... all while posting seemingly-genuine and serious comments on multiple other threads.
Especially on the soaring / free fall threads, people take it too seriously.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I don’t think he does take them seriously. He sounds so confident but I think he is just baiting us for fun. I think its funny.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Nah.ThereAreNoGurus wrote: ↑Thu Apr 01, 2021 6:23 pm
I think Forester takes his predictions seriously. Most of the rest of us not so much.
It's all a lark.
It's pretty easy to yank the chains of Bogleheads.
Anything smacking of market timing or predictions gets people all triggered.
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
-
- Posts: 16054
- Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
or DCA, emergency fund...watchnerd wrote: ↑Thu Apr 01, 2021 6:45 pmNah.ThereAreNoGurus wrote: ↑Thu Apr 01, 2021 6:23 pm
I think Forester takes his predictions seriously. Most of the rest of us not so much.
It's all a lark.
It's pretty easy to yank the chains of Bogleheads.
Anything smacking of market timing or predictions gets people all triggered.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I don't think Forrester is serious as well. Though it does look like current SP500 is peaking past the long term trend, it can continue going up for a few more year or stay flat or go down Only Forrester knows for sure
SP500 total return from 1871 to April 1st 2021.
SP500 total return from 1871 to April 1st 2021.
- zaboomafoozarg
- Posts: 2431
- Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 12:34 pm
- zaboomafoozarg
- Posts: 2431
- Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 12:34 pm
-
- Posts: 16054
- Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Yes, SPX futures -0.25% so far. Let's see what happens.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I see you're back at it
Indeed...Let's see what happens.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Yes, futures unchanged. Brace for impact.
40% SPY | 10% stonks | 50% Cash
-
- Posts: 16054
- Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Having some red days is actually healthy, we're up like 3% in April already.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
You’re right, I should’ve write S&P total return since to 500 was created later.
Source: http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
This morning we are suffering from some classic free falling.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I don't even have to check the markets anymore . . . if the free falling sub is at the top or continues to soar is at the top, I can get all the information I need . . . .
-
- Posts: 4215
- Joined: Sun May 05, 2019 11:23 am
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
With the recent focus on the 10yr, and whether or not it will go higher, I found this oldie but goodie from early 2018 where Bloomberg was worried about another taper tantrum. link
-
- Posts: 16054
- Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Any news? Suddenly SPX went from +0.1% to -0.4% in 10 minutes. Wow.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Haven’t read the story yet, but wonder if the crypto money laundering issue will hit stocks at all tonight. If btc drops 15%, is stocks might drop 1-2% or so potentially.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Weekend Wall Street has down about .3% so maybe...
-
- Posts: 4074
- Joined: Fri Jan 29, 2016 11:40 am
-
- Posts: 16054
- Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Why do you think BTC dropping 15% would shake the S&P500 by 1-2% I am not seeing a connection.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
TSLA?Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 9:30 am
Why do you think BTC dropping 15% would shake the S&P500 by 1-2% I am not seeing a connection.
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
-
- Posts: 16054
- Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I guess TSLA would be a non-zero contributing factor. Iiuc they aren't even 1% of S&P500, let alone their BTC holdings going down by 15%.watchnerd wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 10:13 amTSLA?Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 9:30 am
Why do you think BTC dropping 15% would shake the S&P500 by 1-2% I am not seeing a connection.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Who knows what funds are connected. Could just be a risk off signal in general. Just speculating is all.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 9:30 amWhy do you think BTC dropping 15% would shake the S&P500 by 1-2% I am not seeing a connection.
-
- Posts: 230
- Joined: Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:16 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I agree, I think at this point crypto is big enough to affect the market, even if they are not directly connected. Some will be rebalancing to buy crypto therefore selling stocks? Just speculating here.fanmail wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 10:43 amWho knows what funds are connected. Could just be a risk off signal in general. Just speculating is all.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 9:30 amWhy do you think BTC dropping 15% would shake the S&P500 by 1-2% I am not seeing a connection.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Could be a risk off signal.
We'll see what Treasuries and gold do.
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
-
- Posts: 16054
- Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
You have to wash off the crypto smell on those used shares, though.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 11:42 am
If people sell equities because BTC dropped by 15%, I'll gladly buy their shares on the cheap.
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
-
- Posts: 16054
- Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Should be Mr. Clean, right out of a laundromat: https://twitter.com/fxhedgers/status/13 ... 7144730626watchnerd wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 11:47 amYou have to wash off the crypto smell on those used shares, though.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 11:42 am
If people sell equities because BTC dropped by 15%, I'll gladly buy their shares on the cheap.
-
- Posts: 4074
- Joined: Fri Jan 29, 2016 11:40 am
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Tesla is 2.1% of the S&P 500 currently and its earnings right now are mostly BTC appreciation. Any move in BTC heavily influences the profitability of TSLA, regardless of the broader reaction of the market.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 10:26 am I guess TSLA would be a non-zero contributing factor. Iiuc they aren't even 1% of S&P500, let alone their BTC holdings going down by 15%.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Shocker.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 11:52 am Should be Mr. Clean, right out of a laundromat: https://twitter.com/fxhedgers/status/13 ... 7144730626
Who could have imagined that the national currency of Madripoor would be tied up in money laundering?
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Salary came in, bought the dip.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Yes, S&P is all the way back down to levels last seen on ..... last Thursday, 4/15/21.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
We are seeing a flight to safety: i.e., to GameStop and Dogecoin. Welcome to the new world...
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Yep, it's definitely panic time!
Wealth is not about having a lot of money; it's about having a lot of options.
-
- Posts: 672
- Joined: Sat Apr 15, 2017 7:44 am
-
- Posts: 953
- Joined: Thu Dec 12, 2019 3:58 am
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It's clearly a gaping hole in the SEC regulations and S&P500 should be legally required to only go up. I propose to call it the "Stonks Regulation of 2021"....
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Another -1% or -2% and the Fed will come to the rescue.
All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Agreed. Let's start a change.org petition!occambogle wrote: ↑Tue Apr 20, 2021 4:37 amIt's clearly a gaping hole in the SEC regulations and S&P500 should be legally required to only go up. I propose to call it the "Stonks Regulation of 2021"....
Frankly the markets are much higher than I had ever imagined at this time. Not that I'm complaining.
(AGE minus 23%) Bonds | 5% REITs | Balance 80% US (75/25 TSM/SCV) + 20% International (80/20 Developed/Emerging)
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
This is merely a Heisenberg-Farady rapprochement that is reinforcing the glide path. I expect stocks to go up again soon.
70% Global Stocks / 30% Bonds
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Damn, Netflix down 10% after hours. Huge miss on earnings.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Lots of red today.
Orders went in
Orders went in
"In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long run, it is a weighing machine" ~Benjamin Graham
-
- Posts: 3509
- Joined: Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:52 am