Yes, and it’s kind of fun to look at the S&P chart starting from the first post of this thread unit now. Despite all of the angst expressed here, it’s been a nice time to be a buy and hold investor.
U.S. stocks in free fall
- CyclingDuo
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
HomerJ called him a mooing cow and that was that.
"Save like a pessimist, invest like an optimist." - Morgan Housel |
"Pick a bushel, save a peck!" - Grandpa
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Lbill's reply was pretty epic though. Amazing how much moderation has changed here.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Yeah, I'm kind of embarrassed by that... Wish I could apologize to the guy.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
- ResearchMed
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
And 19,000 + on the US "stocks continue to soar..."
RM
This signature is a placebo. You are in the control group.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
This guy was way before his time
(Check the date)
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
And this guy had no idea how long this thread would last...
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Well hopefully he isn't still fuming over being called a mooing cow by a bogleheads.org poster with a Simpsons avatar 10 years later.
But maybe one day he'll return to this thread in triumph during an epic bear market that takes us back to pre-2011 levels.
Re: Re:
Ouch, I hope LBill isn't still waiting for S&P500 to hit 900 again.HomerJ wrote: ↑Fri Jun 29, 2012 3:23 pmThis is why we don't market time.Lbill wrote:Part of the problem is that I've waited too long to pull the trigger in the past and the *%$! market turns around and skips away. I remember starting to buy in 2009 when the S&P hit 666, thinking I'd edge in as it went lower. But it never did go lower and I never "edged in". That was my theory this time again, and the thing did a 180 and blasted back up - deju vu all over again. But maybe this time that was a fakeout and it will keep going down. Next stop for me is right about 900 on the S&P. I think Jeremy Grantham said it's worth about that at the present time.
We may indeed see 900 on the S&P500 again.
But we may not.
So far the market has gained 25% since this thread was started. While you waited for it to hit 900. That's a ton of money left behind.
Don't try to guess the future. Stay the course, and rebalance, reacting to the PAST, instead of acting on guesses about the future.
Also, a shout out to never listen to Jeremy Grantham.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Re: Re:
IDK, he did say (emphasis mine):
Maybe he was into real estate?
- mangorunner
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
"Rebound for Small Cap Value"?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Really Bad Day. It's in the wiki: Abbreviations and Acronyms
RBD - Really Bad Day. A Bogleheads' idiomatic term coined by forum member livesoft. An early mention is in this thread: Today was a Really Bad Day.
- mangorunner
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Thanks for the link.
Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?
Bought back the shares of BND sold on Friday. So far, it is like getting 2 months of dividends for free.
- mangorunner
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?
I do not see VTI's price going down to the 200 SMA line. ??retire2022 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:00 pm OP
use this chart app
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
type in vti and toggle weekly>update you shall see the price going down to 200 SMA line.
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?
it was on March 23, 2020mangorunner wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 11:17 amI do not see VTI's price going down to the 200 SMA line. ??retire2022 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:00 pm OP
use this chart app
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
type in vti and toggle weekly>update you shall see the price going down to 200 SMA line.
go to overlay and fill in 200 and Simple Moving Average. As it stands currently it is not, Friday's close was sitting at 50 SMA.
Oct 4, 2021 was sitting between 50 SMA and 100 SMA.
- mangorunner
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?
Got it. I didn't realize you were referring back that far. Thank you!retire2022 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 11:35 amit was on March 23, 2020mangorunner wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 11:17 amI do not see VTI's price going down to the 200 SMA line. ??retire2022 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:00 pm OP
use this chart app
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
type in vti and toggle weekly>update you shall see the price going down to 200 SMA line.
go to overlay and fill in 200 and Simple Moving Average. As it stands currently it is not, Friday's close was sitting at 50 SMA.
Oct 4, 2021 was sitting between 50 SMA and 100 SMA.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Not surprisingly I don't even remember the drop that prompted the start of this thread back in 2011. Just another one of those bumps in the road along the way.
The fool, with all his other faults, has this also - he is always getting ready to live. - Seneca Epistles < c. 65AD
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I’m so happy to see that my Crystal Ball is in fine working condition. How it does it? I don’t know!
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
You are given a second chance today. Back to “almost” all time highs. What do you know? What will you do?peskypesky wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:11 amwrong. i knew.marcopolo wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:09 amNo reason to kick yourself.peskypesky wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 1:53 am ugh. tapering talk hits futures.
I'm kicking myself because I knew this was coming.
You didn't know. You had some vague notion that was too imprecise to act upon. Now in hindsight you have deluded yourself into thinking that you knew.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Good call GoldenFinch.GoldenFinch wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 1:19 pmI’m so happy to see that my Crystal Ball is in fine working condition. How it does it? I don’t know!
My prediction (bloodbath) failed horribly.
"I look at a hundred deals a day. I pick one." -Gordon Gekko
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Glad I bought the dip on Friday !
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Bought some voo today and friday. It could drop tmr.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I’m glad! Thank youGundy wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 3:35 pmGood call GoldenFinch.GoldenFinch wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 1:19 pmI’m so happy to see that my Crystal Ball is in fine working condition. How it does it? I don’t know!GoldenFinch wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 11:11 amIt will be up.
My prediction (bloodbath) failed horribly.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
So now that we’re within ~1% if ATHs, are you going to liquidate? Now would seem like the chance to pounce on this apparent missed opportunity.peskypesky wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:42 amwell, I'm already retired. I don't own a house, so I couldn't mortgage it. But I do wish I had liquidated a lot of my stocks while at ATH's.marcopolo wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:15 amLOLpeskypesky wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:11 amwrong. i knew.marcopolo wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:09 amNo reason to kick yourself.peskypesky wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 1:53 am ugh. tapering talk hits futures.
I'm kicking myself because I knew this was coming.
You didn't know. You had some vague notion that was too imprecise to act upon. Now in hindsight you have deluded yourself into thinking that you knew.
Then you should definitely kick your self for not mortgaging your house to bet on it. You could retire have retired with fabulous wealth.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Look out! Nikkei -1.34% and SPX futures -1%.
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- peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Of course!!!calvin+hobbes wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 7:34 pm So now that we’re within ~1% if ATHs, are you going to liquidate? Now would seem like the chance to pounce on this apparent missed opportunity.
- peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Thanks for the data! Pretty stunning how many people, like me, cashed out in March 2020. But then again....things were looking extremely dire. And the recovery was incredibly quick.CyclingDuo wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 3:11 pm
Rest assured that you were not alone in the choices you made.
According to research done by Fidelity and LPL, 30.x% of all investors age 65 or older sold 100% of their equities. Overall, nearly 18% of investors (all ages) sold 100% of their equities during the Covid led 2020 capitulation between February and May of 2020.
Gut wrenching as the uncertainty and market drop intensified, I know we each personally had to combat our emotions and choices based on our individual circumstances. Point being, peskypesky - don't beat yourself up. I imagine we all could relate various lessons learned throughout our investing decades. Of even failed attempts at sticking to those lessons learned.
And I did get back in during a dip, and I have made a LOT of money since I put all my chips back in. Of course, it's debatable if I've actually "made" money. The prices of my stocks have gone up tremendously, but there are those who assert that the price increase is just a reflection of a much-weakened purchasing power of the dollar.
- peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
yep. just saw that. bummer.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
December could be a repeat of February 2020, a one month grind that took us to the March 2020 lows. A bunch of factors are coming together again, the latest being the new variant and the unknowns it brings with it.
There’s of course the tapering of the bond buying program, rising inflation, debt ceiling, supply chain issues, and a market near all time highs.
I think the only difference now is that unlike the unbelievable recovery following March 2020, if we have major correction, we may stay down for a while in a rising interest rate environment. The high flying tech stocks will get hit especially hard in this scenario.
I have an allocation (see signature) that will let me sleep at night. Lessons were learned during the Feb-March 2020 crash and I found out that I’m not as risk tolerant as I thought I was.
There’s of course the tapering of the bond buying program, rising inflation, debt ceiling, supply chain issues, and a market near all time highs.
I think the only difference now is that unlike the unbelievable recovery following March 2020, if we have major correction, we may stay down for a while in a rising interest rate environment. The high flying tech stocks will get hit especially hard in this scenario.
I have an allocation (see signature) that will let me sleep at night. Lessons were learned during the Feb-March 2020 crash and I found out that I’m not as risk tolerant as I thought I was.
40% SPY | 10% stonks | 50% Cash
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Why do you think tech stocks will be hit especially hard?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
There are a lot of articles discussing that question, including this one.UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 30, 2021 3:02 am Why do you think tech stocks will be hit especially hard?
Strategic Macro Senior (top 1%, 2019 Bogleheads Contest)
- peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
But if this new variant hits the global economy hard, with lots of shutdowns, then there won't be as much of a need for the Fed to raise interest rates, right? The idea of raising rates is to tamp down inflation which is caused by high demand. Demand will fall if global economy slows, right?APX32 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:38 am December could be a repeat of February 2020, a one month grind that took us to the March 2020 lows. A bunch of factors are coming together again, the latest being the new variant and the unknowns it brings with it.
There’s of course the tapering of the bond buying program, rising inflation, debt ceiling, supply chain issues, and a market near all time highs.
I think the only difference now is that unlike the unbelievable recovery following March 2020, if we have major correction, we may stay down for a while in a rising interest rate environment. The high flying tech stocks will get hit especially hard in this scenario.
I have an allocation (see signature) that will let me sleep at night. Lessons were learned during the Feb-March 2020 crash and I found out that I’m not as risk tolerant as I thought I was.
I myself am not sure what the hell to do. Because of the low returns on bonds, I no longer hold any bonds, especially with inflation as high as it is. You can see from my signature what I hold. Yeah, I'm a risk taker. It's worked really well for me in the past 13 years....but I'm really wanting to find a less risky place to put some of my assets. Maybe gold. Maybe real estate.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Read these articles for fun if that’s your thing, but don’t actually make investment decisions based on them
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I wasn't advocating that, only sharing that there is existing material relating to the question that was asked. I have no personal opinion about the material itself.minimalistmarc wrote: ↑Tue Nov 30, 2021 4:04 amRead these articles for fun if that’s your thing, but don’t actually make investment decisions based on them
Strategic Macro Senior (top 1%, 2019 Bogleheads Contest)
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Most us following our instincts., today market plunge many will start asking “ what to do, I don’t have enough BND, should I sell equity “ or “ I am glad I am mostly in bonds”, market will jump up - “ I have too much cash, what should I do given market conditions ?” . Fun watching , we never stop market timing (guilty too , but I never sell). I miss legends like Jack. We don’t have enough of people like him anymore to remind ourselves.
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I have the FODS. I am content with that.
"A part of all you earn is yours to keep" |
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-The Richest Man in Babylon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Ain't that the truth! Half the time I'm wondering why I don't have more bonds. The other half I'm wondering why I have so much in bonds.Ed 2 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 30, 2021 5:36 am Most us following our instincts., today market plunge many will start asking “ what to do, I don’t have enough BND, should I sell equity “ or “ I am glad I am mostly in bonds”, market will jump up - “ I have too much cash, what should I do given market conditions ?” . Fun watching , we never stop market timing (guilty too , but I never sell). I miss legends like Jack. We don’t have enough of people like him anymore to remind ourselves.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It's tough being human.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Right now, "free fall" is at the top of the list of threads and "soar" is #2. The AQR Boglehead Free fall/Soar Indicator is very confused right now, Mr. Asness doesn't know whether to be short or to be long!
A fool and his money are good for business.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It's probably going to be a volatile ride until we find out how bad omicron may be.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I'm continually amazed at the amount of market timers at BH.
Starting around 2010 (?) I started slowly scaling my AA from around 65/35 to 30/70 where it's been now for several years. I did it slowly in small chunks so whatever the market was doing didn't matter.
Of course, if I had a functioning crystal ball I probably would had done it differently. Otherwise, no regrets.
Starting around 2010 (?) I started slowly scaling my AA from around 65/35 to 30/70 where it's been now for several years. I did it slowly in small chunks so whatever the market was doing didn't matter.
Of course, if I had a functioning crystal ball I probably would had done it differently. Otherwise, no regrets.
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Fast drop! Did someone say something?
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
"Powell says Fed will discuss speeding up bond-buying taper at December meeting"
The fool, with all his other faults, has this also - he is always getting ready to live. - Seneca Epistles < c. 65AD
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
(link)Powell said that risk of persistent inflation has risen and said that the central bank may need to speed up its reduction of asset-purchases, which could set the table for faster interest-rate increases by the Fed, potentially bearish for risky assets in the short term.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
To quote the immortal Roseanne Roseannadanna:
”It just goes to show you, it's always something — if it’s not one thing, it's another."
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”