U.S. stocks in free fall

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
nigel_ht
Posts: 4742
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:14 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nigel_ht »

ivgrivchuck wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 4:16 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 3:31 pm
ivgrivchuck wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:21 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:45 am
ivgrivchuck wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:05 am I am hoping for a market crash.

As an accumulator in my late 30s, that would mean that I could finally buy fairly priced stocks.

I am not hoping for a crash that results in a deep recession. That would benefit nobody...
What’s your current portfolio?
The target is 80%/20% stocks/cash, U.S./non-U.S. 50%/50%. Currently I'm a little bit under target (74% stocks) after hording I-bonds (I couldn't resist the 7% rate when stock prices were sky-high). Portfolio size around $750k.
How long of a “buying opportunity” do you want?
The longer the better.

In the dream scenario, stocks would now go down as much as possible without causing a severe recession (40%?). Then the valuation would stay low for the next ~15-20 years and 5-10 years before my retirement they would raise back to high valuations.
If you are in your late 30s with $500K+ why do you want 10 years of 0% real growth? So the $300K or so you invest over the next decade is “discounted”?
Obviously I hope that the earnings will keep growing, but stock prices on the market to stay low...
So $300K in US TSM.

In just 10 years, using a fairly boring 1975 to 1985 market that $300K would have turned into $1.3M ($650K inflation adjusted)

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100

Using 1972 to 1992 it would have turned into $2.8M ($831K inflation adjusted)

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100

Do you guys NOT get that the reason folks say “time in market and not market timing” is because of the power of compounding?

That a “lost decade” is a decade of lost compounded growth you’ll never get back.

You’ll have lost $2.5M nominal gains from your current $300K holdings if your ideal of 20 lost years happens vs a fairly normal market without mega bubbles. And note that 1972 includes a pretty nasty bear market with a 46% drop coupled with inflation.

Yeah, you better have one hell of a savings rate starting $2.5M in the hole if the S&P 500 is only 4400 in 2042.

You better hope you don’t get what you wished for. Us older folks will likely be okay (a few less european river cruises) but you guys would be screwed.
It really seems that we don't understand each other at all.

It is economics 101 that it's best to buy stocks as cheaply as possible during the accumulation phase, and sell them as expensive as possible during the retirement.

The boring stock market periods you mentioned can't repeat at CAPE 35+. It really inhibits the exponential growth.
1972-1992 includes the 1972 46% bear. It won’t be CAPE 35+ after that. So yes repeating 1972 would turn your current $300K into $1.8M.

What you are asking for are two successive lost decades and which is 20 years of lost compounded growth which would be covered in finance 101. Perhaps you should have taken that class as well…

And going from 2700 to 4400 isn’t “exponential growth”. You know what can give you exponential growth? Compounded returns.
ivgrivchuck
Posts: 1672
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2020 6:20 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ivgrivchuck »

nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 5:00 pm
ivgrivchuck wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 4:16 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 3:31 pm
ivgrivchuck wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:21 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:45 am

What’s your current portfolio?
The target is 80%/20% stocks/cash, U.S./non-U.S. 50%/50%. Currently I'm a little bit under target (74% stocks) after hording I-bonds (I couldn't resist the 7% rate when stock prices were sky-high). Portfolio size around $750k.
How long of a “buying opportunity” do you want?
The longer the better.

In the dream scenario, stocks would now go down as much as possible without causing a severe recession (40%?). Then the valuation would stay low for the next ~15-20 years and 5-10 years before my retirement they would raise back to high valuations.
If you are in your late 30s with $500K+ why do you want 10 years of 0% real growth? So the $300K or so you invest over the next decade is “discounted”?
Obviously I hope that the earnings will keep growing, but stock prices on the market to stay low...
So $300K in US TSM.

In just 10 years, using a fairly boring 1975 to 1985 market that $300K would have turned into $1.3M ($650K inflation adjusted)

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100

Using 1972 to 1992 it would have turned into $2.8M ($831K inflation adjusted)

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100

Do you guys NOT get that the reason folks say “time in market and not market timing” is because of the power of compounding?

That a “lost decade” is a decade of lost compounded growth you’ll never get back.

You’ll have lost $2.5M nominal gains from your current $300K holdings if your ideal of 20 lost years happens vs a fairly normal market without mega bubbles. And note that 1972 includes a pretty nasty bear market with a 46% drop coupled with inflation.

Yeah, you better have one hell of a savings rate starting $2.5M in the hole if the S&P 500 is only 4400 in 2042.

You better hope you don’t get what you wished for. Us older folks will likely be okay (a few less european river cruises) but you guys would be screwed.
It really seems that we don't understand each other at all.

It is economics 101 that it's best to buy stocks as cheaply as possible during the accumulation phase, and sell them as expensive as possible during the retirement.

The boring stock market periods you mentioned can't repeat at CAPE 35+. It really inhibits the exponential growth.
1972-1992 includes the 1972 46% bear. It won’t be CAPE 35+ after that. So yes repeating 1972 would turn your current $300K into $1.8M.

What you are asking for are two successive lost decades and which is 20 years of lost compounded growth which would be covered in finance 101. Perhaps you should have taken that class as well…

And going from 2700 to 4400 isn’t “exponential growth”. You know what can give you exponential growth? Compounded returns.
I said:
Obviously I hope that the earnings will keep growing, but stock prices on the market to stay low...
In your statement of "compounded return" you are mixing speculative growth (that we've seen in the last 14 years) and earnings growth.
25% VTI | 25% VXUS | 12.5% AVUV | 10% AVDV | 2.5% VWO | 25% BND/SCHR/SCHP
nigel_ht
Posts: 4742
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:14 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nigel_ht »

ivgrivchuck wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 5:17 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 5:00 pm
ivgrivchuck wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 4:16 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 3:31 pm
ivgrivchuck wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:21 pm

The target is 80%/20% stocks/cash, U.S./non-U.S. 50%/50%. Currently I'm a little bit under target (74% stocks) after hording I-bonds (I couldn't resist the 7% rate when stock prices were sky-high). Portfolio size around $750k.



The longer the better.

In the dream scenario, stocks would now go down as much as possible without causing a severe recession (40%?). Then the valuation would stay low for the next ~15-20 years and 5-10 years before my retirement they would raise back to high valuations.



Obviously I hope that the earnings will keep growing, but stock prices on the market to stay low...
So $300K in US TSM.

In just 10 years, using a fairly boring 1975 to 1985 market that $300K would have turned into $1.3M ($650K inflation adjusted)

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100

Using 1972 to 1992 it would have turned into $2.8M ($831K inflation adjusted)

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100

Do you guys NOT get that the reason folks say “time in market and not market timing” is because of the power of compounding?

That a “lost decade” is a decade of lost compounded growth you’ll never get back.

You’ll have lost $2.5M nominal gains from your current $300K holdings if your ideal of 20 lost years happens vs a fairly normal market without mega bubbles. And note that 1972 includes a pretty nasty bear market with a 46% drop coupled with inflation.

Yeah, you better have one hell of a savings rate starting $2.5M in the hole if the S&P 500 is only 4400 in 2042.

You better hope you don’t get what you wished for. Us older folks will likely be okay (a few less european river cruises) but you guys would be screwed.
It really seems that we don't understand each other at all.

It is economics 101 that it's best to buy stocks as cheaply as possible during the accumulation phase, and sell them as expensive as possible during the retirement.

The boring stock market periods you mentioned can't repeat at CAPE 35+. It really inhibits the exponential growth.
1972-1992 includes the 1972 46% bear. It won’t be CAPE 35+ after that. So yes repeating 1972 would turn your current $300K into $1.8M.

What you are asking for are two successive lost decades and which is 20 years of lost compounded growth which would be covered in finance 101. Perhaps you should have taken that class as well…

And going from 2700 to 4400 isn’t “exponential growth”. You know what can give you exponential growth? Compounded returns.
I said:
Obviously I hope that the earnings will keep growing, but stock prices on the market to stay low...
In your statement of "compounded return" you are mixing speculative growth (that we've seen in the last 14 years) and earnings growth.
Perhaps you simply don’t understand what a lost decade is?

2000-2009?

Start with $1M in 2000 and end with $900K in 2009. That’s nominal by the way. Inflation adjusted its much lower (760k)

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100

I guess you don’t know how much that sucked because you weren’t in the market then.

If you invested $30K a year to double your current $300K holdings:

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100

You ended with an inflation adjusted $522K.

Brilliant wish.

People who “wish” for a lost decade are seriously misinformed as to how their “Econ 101 knowledge” works in the real world of investment.
ivgrivchuck
Posts: 1672
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2020 6:20 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ivgrivchuck »

nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 5:38 pm Perhaps you simply don’t understand what a lost decade is?

2000-2009?

Start with $1M in 2000 and end with $900K in 2009. That’s nominal by the way. Inflation adjusted its much lower (760k)

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100

I guess you don’t know how much that sucked because you weren’t in the market then.

If you invested $30K a year to double your current $300K holdings:

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100

You ended with an inflation adjusted $522K.

Brilliant wish.
Sure, it must have felt bad at the time. But if you stayed the course, kept putting money in the markets, you loaded up equities at a bargain price in 2009-2012, and see what happened after that...

Dips and stagnation periods at low valuations are excellent buying opportunities for the patient and disciplined.

I would warmly welcome such a ten year period for the next 10 years...
25% VTI | 25% VXUS | 12.5% AVUV | 10% AVDV | 2.5% VWO | 25% BND/SCHR/SCHP
Silverado
Posts: 1650
Joined: Fri Oct 18, 2013 6:07 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Silverado »

nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 5:38 pm
Perhaps you simply don’t understand what a lost decade is?

2000-2009?

Start with $1M in 2000 and end with $900K in 2009. That’s nominal by the way. Inflation adjusted its much lower (760k)

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100

I guess you don’t know how much that sucked because you weren’t in the market then.

If you invested $30K a year to double your current $300K holdings:

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100

You ended with an inflation adjusted $522K.

Brilliant wish.

People who “wish” for a lost decade are seriously misinformed as to how their “Econ 101 knowledge” works in the real world of investment.
I dumped about $750k into equities during that lost decade, looking back it was wonderful. Dumped about twice that into equities the decade after that. Also wonderful. May not reach a million more this decade because I am not working the whole ten years. But whatever I stick in will be wonderful, and yes, I know what that word means.
nigel_ht
Posts: 4742
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:14 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nigel_ht »

ivgrivchuck wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:02 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 5:38 pm Perhaps you simply don’t understand what a lost decade is?

2000-2009?

Start with $1M in 2000 and end with $900K in 2009. That’s nominal by the way. Inflation adjusted its much lower (760k)

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100

I guess you don’t know how much that sucked because you weren’t in the market then.

If you invested $30K a year to double your current $300K holdings:

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100

You ended with an inflation adjusted $522K.

Brilliant wish.
Sure, it must have felt bad at the time. But if you stayed the course, kept putting money in the markets, you loaded up equities at a bargain price in 2009-2012, and see what happened after that...

Dips and stagnation periods at low valuations are excellent buying opportunities for the patient and disciplined.

I would warmly welcome such a ten year period for the next 10 years...
You can lead a horse to water…

You didn’t click any of the links did you?

It didn’t “feel bad at the time”…it was simply bad.

That you would warmly welcome such a ten year period says a whole lot.

The massive increase in valuations isn’t because of the lost decade. Replace that ten year period with anything normal and we’d have a lot more money because FAANG still would have happened.

There was no lost decade before the Dot Bomb and you are seriously confusing correlation with causation.

And what happened to wanting lost 20 years?
nigel_ht
Posts: 4742
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:14 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nigel_ht »

Silverado wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:30 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 5:38 pm
Perhaps you simply don’t understand what a lost decade is?

2000-2009?

Start with $1M in 2000 and end with $900K in 2009. That’s nominal by the way. Inflation adjusted its much lower (760k)

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100

I guess you don’t know how much that sucked because you weren’t in the market then.

If you invested $30K a year to double your current $300K holdings:

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100

You ended with an inflation adjusted $522K.

Brilliant wish.

People who “wish” for a lost decade are seriously misinformed as to how their “Econ 101 knowledge” works in the real world of investment.
I dumped about $750k into equities during that lost decade, looking back it was wonderful.
Lol…because you liked wasting 10 years?
rockstar
Posts: 6326
Joined: Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:51 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:34 pm
Silverado wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:30 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 5:38 pm
Perhaps you simply don’t understand what a lost decade is?

2000-2009?

Start with $1M in 2000 and end with $900K in 2009. That’s nominal by the way. Inflation adjusted its much lower (760k)

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100

I guess you don’t know how much that sucked because you weren’t in the market then.

If you invested $30K a year to double your current $300K holdings:

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100

You ended with an inflation adjusted $522K.

Brilliant wish.

People who “wish” for a lost decade are seriously misinformed as to how their “Econ 101 knowledge” works in the real world of investment.
I dumped about $750k into equities during that lost decade, looking back it was wonderful.
Lol…because you liked wasting 10 years?
Because we all invest to make no money.
nigel_ht
Posts: 4742
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:14 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nigel_ht »

rockstar wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:36 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:34 pm
Silverado wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:30 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 5:38 pm
Perhaps you simply don’t understand what a lost decade is?

2000-2009?

Start with $1M in 2000 and end with $900K in 2009. That’s nominal by the way. Inflation adjusted its much lower (760k)

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100

I guess you don’t know how much that sucked because you weren’t in the market then.

If you invested $30K a year to double your current $300K holdings:

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100

You ended with an inflation adjusted $522K.

Brilliant wish.

People who “wish” for a lost decade are seriously misinformed as to how their “Econ 101 knowledge” works in the real world of investment.
I dumped about $750k into equities during that lost decade, looking back it was wonderful.
Lol…because you liked wasting 10 years?
Because we all invest to make no money.
It took me 10 years but I turned $750K into $725K! YAY!
rockstar
Posts: 6326
Joined: Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:51 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:41 pm
rockstar wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:36 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:34 pm
Silverado wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:30 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 5:38 pm
Perhaps you simply don’t understand what a lost decade is?

2000-2009?

Start with $1M in 2000 and end with $900K in 2009. That’s nominal by the way. Inflation adjusted its much lower (760k)

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100

I guess you don’t know how much that sucked because you weren’t in the market then.

If you invested $30K a year to double your current $300K holdings:

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100

You ended with an inflation adjusted $522K.

Brilliant wish.

People who “wish” for a lost decade are seriously misinformed as to how their “Econ 101 knowledge” works in the real world of investment.
I dumped about $750k into equities during that lost decade, looking back it was wonderful.
Lol…because you liked wasting 10 years?
Because we all invest to make no money.
It took me 10 years but I turned $750K into $725K! YAY!
Less inflation. That's a big drop.
ivgrivchuck
Posts: 1672
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2020 6:20 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ivgrivchuck »

nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:33 pm
ivgrivchuck wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:02 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 5:38 pm Perhaps you simply don’t understand what a lost decade is?

2000-2009?

Start with $1M in 2000 and end with $900K in 2009. That’s nominal by the way. Inflation adjusted its much lower (760k)

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100

I guess you don’t know how much that sucked because you weren’t in the market then.

If you invested $30K a year to double your current $300K holdings:

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100

You ended with an inflation adjusted $522K.

Brilliant wish.
Sure, it must have felt bad at the time. But if you stayed the course, kept putting money in the markets, you loaded up equities at a bargain price in 2009-2012, and see what happened after that...

Dips and stagnation periods at low valuations are excellent buying opportunities for the patient and disciplined.

I would warmly welcome such a ten year period for the next 10 years...
You can lead a horse to water…

You didn’t click any of the links did you?

It didn’t “feel bad at the time”…it was simply bad.

That you would warmly welcome such a ten year period says a whole lot.

The massive increase in valuations isn’t because of the lost decade. Replace that ten year period with anything normal and we’d have a lot more money because FAANG still would have happened.

There was no lost decade before the Dot Bomb and you are seriously confusing correlation with causation.

And what happened to wanting lost 20 years?
I did click all the links. Our math doesn't match.

I see no reason to continue this discussion.
25% VTI | 25% VXUS | 12.5% AVUV | 10% AVDV | 2.5% VWO | 25% BND/SCHR/SCHP
Silverado
Posts: 1650
Joined: Fri Oct 18, 2013 6:07 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Silverado »

nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:34 pm
Silverado wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:30 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 5:38 pm
Perhaps you simply don’t understand what a lost decade is?

2000-2009?

Start with $1M in 2000 and end with $900K in 2009. That’s nominal by the way. Inflation adjusted its much lower (760k)

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100

I guess you don’t know how much that sucked because you weren’t in the market then.

If you invested $30K a year to double your current $300K holdings:

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100

You ended with an inflation adjusted $522K.

Brilliant wish.

People who “wish” for a lost decade are seriously misinformed as to how their “Econ 101 knowledge” works in the real world of investment.
I dumped about $750k into equities during that lost decade, looking back it was wonderful.
Lol…because you liked wasting 10 years?
Sorry, I have no idea what you are talking about. Those shares have grown nicely, which is pretty much my real world of investment.
Elysium
Posts: 4120
Joined: Mon Apr 02, 2007 6:22 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Elysium »

ivgrivchuck wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:02 pm Sure, it must have felt bad at the time. But if you stayed the course, kept putting money in the markets, you loaded up equities at a bargain price in 2009-2012, and see what happened after that...

Dips and stagnation periods at low valuations are excellent buying opportunities for the patient and disciplined.

I would warmly welcome such a ten year period for the next 10 years...
It's a red herring. Pay no attention to these claims. No one ever actually landed on year 2000 with $1mm to invest in Total Stock Index, then did nothing for the next 10 years. We've had these conversations during the years 2000-09 constantly, and it has been proven time and again as a poor argument. To begin with, as I said it depends on when the investor started investing, what was their situation such as beginner, retiree, semi-retiree, what was their asset allocation leading up to the market decline then through the decline and recovery before the next dip, on and on.

Take for instance someone in accumulating starting out in mid 90's or late 90's, they'd have had very little to invest, and that meant they keep buying more equities at cheaper prices and building up a nice asset base which then took off a decade later. These folks had a lifetime opportunity to purchase equities cheaper during their beginning accumulation years, setup a nice base, and enjoy really good period of growth after. Those folks are now being setup nicely for a glidepath to retirement.

Second, consider someone who retired exactly in year 2000, that meant they'd have been investing for several decades including the 80's and 90's which were really great periods for investing in S&P 500. They'd have been on a glidepath to retirement allocation using more bonds as they near that period, and if they retired with a portfolio that included an appropriate allocation to treasury bonds or any high quality bonds, they navigated fine through this period even while withdrawing. I have seen simulations where a retiree would have been down to $600K starting with $1mm while drawing $40K, while this may sound extreme, remember there are always other sources of income such as SS and in some cases pensions. There is also opportunity to re-assess one's situation and purchase SPIA annuities that can guarantee income if someone starts worrying about running out of money, but the market gives you plenty of opportunities as you recovered through 2003-2007.

All these claims distract from the actual business of investing, which requires us to just act according to our plan, stay the course, and earn those compounded returns.
User avatar
Beensabu
Posts: 5657
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2016 3:22 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Beensabu »

nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 5:38 pm Do you guys NOT get that the reason folks say “time in market and not market timing” is because of the power of compounding?
It's more like because of the power of contributions over time + the compounding of the last bull when the mass of accumulated contributions is a lot higher.
If you invested $30K a year to double your current $300K holdings:

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100

You ended with an inflation adjusted $522K.
And if you kept doing that through 2020, you ended up with an inflation-adjusted $2,466,488, having had an inflation-adjusted CAGR of 10.55% over that 20-year period.

And if you did that over the other 20-year period of 1972-1992 (and by "that", I mean start with $300k and contribute $30k annually), you ended up with an inflation-adjusted $2,415,495, having had an inflation-adjusted CAGR of 10.44%.

There are different ways to get to an inflation adjusted CAGR of ~10% over a 20-year period, I suppose. They do require regular contributions over that period. Let's hope it holds.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
bling
Posts: 1456
Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2012 11:49 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bling »

to the people wishing for stocks to fall, this scene from the movie The Big Short pretty much sums it up: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0k5aVLi_yhM [warning: scene contains language]
nigel_ht
Posts: 4742
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:14 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nigel_ht »

Elysium wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:57 pm
ivgrivchuck wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:02 pm Sure, it must have felt bad at the time. But if you stayed the course, kept putting money in the markets, you loaded up equities at a bargain price in 2009-2012, and see what happened after that...

Dips and stagnation periods at low valuations are excellent buying opportunities for the patient and disciplined.

I would warmly welcome such a ten year period for the next 10 years...
It's a red herring. Pay no attention to these claims. No one ever actually landed on year 2000 with $1mm to invest in Total Stock Index, then did nothing for the next 10 years.
Talk about red herrings. $300K portfolio and $30K a year investment.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100

Ends with $522K inflation adjusted.
To begin with, as I said it depends on when the investor started investing, what was their situation such as beginner, retiree, semi-retiree, what was their asset allocation leading up to the market decline then through the decline and recovery before the next dip, on and on.
AA doesn’t matter. He’s talking about US TSM being too expensive so he wants a lost decade.

When the investor starts or situation doesn’t matter. You lost money being invested in US total market for those 10 years.
All these claims distract from the actual business of investing, which requires us to just act according to our plan, stay the course, and earn those compounded returns.
The entire point is you lost 10 years worth of compounding.
nigel_ht
Posts: 4742
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:14 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nigel_ht »

Beensabu wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:10 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 5:38 pm Do you guys NOT get that the reason folks say “time in market and not market timing” is because of the power of compounding?
It's more like because of the power of contributions over time + the compounding of the last bull when the mass of accumulated contributions is a lot higher.
If you invested $30K a year to double your current $300K holdings:

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100

You ended with an inflation adjusted $522K.
And if you kept doing that through 2020, you ended up with an inflation-adjusted $2,466,488, having had an inflation-adjusted CAGR of 10.55% over that 20-year period.
And replace that 10 year period with anything normal you’d have another million.

It doesn’t matter what happens after because FAANG STILL would have happened.

Wishing to lose money for 10 years is dumb no matter how you spin it.
WhiteMaxima
Posts: 3338
Joined: Thu May 19, 2016 5:04 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by WhiteMaxima »

Finally. my DCA will buy more shares.
bogledogle87
Posts: 478
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:03 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bogledogle87 »

Federal reserve is boxed in here. 40 year high inflation, zero rates, frothy market. It’s completely reasonable to think this is just the beginning for volatility and underperformance for the US market. The dollar could easily lose quite a bit of strength in the process as well, which will be a double whammy.
VTWAX and chill
Ed 2
Posts: 2692
Joined: Sat May 15, 2010 9:34 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Ed 2 »

bogledogle87 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:53 pm Federal reserve is boxed in here. 40 year high inflation, zero rates, frothy market. It’s completely reasonable to think this is just the beginning for volatility and underperformance for the US market. The dollar could easily lose quite a bit of strength in the process as well, which will be a double whammy.
I’d say more comments like yours gives me more believe that market due to rebound .
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel
bogledogle87
Posts: 478
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:03 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bogledogle87 »

Ed 2 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:57 pm
bogledogle87 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:53 pm Federal reserve is boxed in here. 40 year high inflation, zero rates, frothy market. It’s completely reasonable to think this is just the beginning for volatility and underperformance for the US market. The dollar could easily lose quite a bit of strength in the process as well, which will be a double whammy.
I’d say more comments like yours gives me more believe that market due to rebound .
Please, do explain!
VTWAX and chill
User avatar
Beensabu
Posts: 5657
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2016 3:22 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Beensabu »

nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:29 pm
Beensabu wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:10 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 5:38 pm Do you guys NOT get that the reason folks say “time in market and not market timing” is because of the power of compounding?
It's more like because of the power of contributions over time + the compounding of the last bull when the mass of accumulated contributions is a lot higher.
If you invested $30K a year to double your current $300K holdings:

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100

You ended with an inflation adjusted $522K.
And if you kept doing that through 2020, you ended up with an inflation-adjusted $2,466,488, having had an inflation-adjusted CAGR of 10.55% over that 20-year period.
And replace that 10 year period with anything normal you’d have another million.

It doesn’t matter what happens after because FAANG STILL would have happened.

Wishing to lose money for 10 years is dumb no matter how you spin it.
What's "normal"? The last decade or so wouldn't have happened without 2008, and 2008 wouldn't have happened without 2000-2003, which wouldn't have happened without 1995-1999, which wouldn't have happened without... Actions cause events which result in actions which cause events. There's no such thing as "normal" returns that exist in a vacuum. There are cycles, which are irregular; we go through them, and we get a long-term average return.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
revhappy
Posts: 266
Joined: Sat Jul 21, 2018 10:09 am
Location: Singapore

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by revhappy »

Guys, wishing for something wont make it happen. I dont understand why so many posts on this thread have been talking about is crash good or not. We cannot control it, so why debate it? It is better to rather discuss how do we manage the crash if we get one.
Silverado
Posts: 1650
Joined: Fri Oct 18, 2013 6:07 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Silverado »

revhappy wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:24 pm Guys, wishing for something wont make it happen. I dont understand why so many posts on this thread have been talking about is crash good or not. We cannot control it, so why debate it? It is better to rather discuss how do we manage the crash if we get one.
A crash now was already managed years ago when I selected an allocation that I can handle a 50% drop with. So that work is done. So I banter.
User avatar
Beensabu
Posts: 5657
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2016 3:22 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Beensabu »

revhappy wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:24 pm It is better to rather discuss how do we manage the crash if we get one.
By continuing to invest according to your predetermined asset allocation set per your actual risk tolerance.

But that's boring. It's more exciting to reframe a negative as a positive and then argue about it.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Ed 2
Posts: 2692
Joined: Sat May 15, 2010 9:34 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Ed 2 »

revhappy wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:24 pm Guys, wishing for something wont make it happen. I dont understand why so many posts on this thread have been talking about is crash good or not. We cannot control it, so why debate it? It is better to rather discuss how do we manage the crash if we get one.
Because most on this thread are market timers who can’t manage the market corrections , most can’t understand that actually during market correction or bear markets most money made . It’s tough to be a human and investor same time.
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel
User avatar
fetch5482
Posts: 1722
Joined: Fri Aug 15, 2014 4:55 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by fetch5482 »

My net worth is ~$180,000 lower YTD. The party has just begun.
(AGE minus 23%) Bonds | 5% REITs | Balance 80% US (75/25 TSM/SCV) + 20% International (80/20 Developed/Emerging)
Jimsad
Posts: 935
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 5:54 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Jimsad »

WhiteMaxima wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:35 pm Finally. my DCA will buy more shares.
From what I remember you have a large stock portfolio and so must have experienced big losses like me last week .
But good to see you stick to your asset allocation and buying stocks.
I am trying to do the same .
User avatar
peskypesky
Posts: 1023
Joined: Fri Mar 08, 2013 7:56 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

gas_balloon wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:37 pm My net worth is ~$180,000 lower YTD. The party has just begun.
ouch.

I'm not far behind you. My net worth is about -$100k since early November.

I keep having to remind myself that the November number was not really "deserved". It was extremely inflated by loose monetary policy, leading to a big bubble in stocks and crypto. But it still hurts to see that net wealth number shrink so much. Kicking myself for not having bought about $150k in gold, as I had contemplated doing in December.

Oh well....
User avatar
fetch5482
Posts: 1722
Joined: Fri Aug 15, 2014 4:55 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by fetch5482 »

peskypesky wrote: Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:09 am
gas_balloon wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:37 pm My net worth is ~$180,000 lower YTD. The party has just begun.
ouch.

I'm not far behind you. My net worth is about -$100k since early November.

I keep having to remind myself that the November number was not really "deserved". It was extremely inflated by loose monetary policy, leading to a big bubble in stocks and crypto. But it still hurts to see that net wealth number shrink so much. Kicking myself for not having bought about $150k in gold, as I had contemplated doing in December.

Oh well....
My net worth almost doubled since the pandemic started. Always knew there will be a jolt some day. I stayed the course, increased bonds by 1% each year as planned, remained with 5/25 when needed. -200k after that may seem bad, but I'm still well ahead of where I thought I'd be right now.
(AGE minus 23%) Bonds | 5% REITs | Balance 80% US (75/25 TSM/SCV) + 20% International (80/20 Developed/Emerging)
User avatar
peskypesky
Posts: 1023
Joined: Fri Mar 08, 2013 7:56 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

gas_balloon wrote: Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:14 am
My net worth almost doubled since the pandemic started. Always knew there will be a jolt some day. I stayed the course, increased bonds by 1% each year as planned, remained with 5/25 when needed. -200k after that may seem bad, but I'm still well ahead of where I thought I'd be right now.
yes, that's true for me as well. I have to admit I was giddy in October and November. My net wealth was far more than I could have dreamed of several years ago. I had a voice in my head telling me to cash out some of those "winnings"....but I was too greedy...and wanted more.

I did finally listen to that voice. I sold a chunk of stocks in December and early January, and about 90% of my crypto in the first week of January. So I have some dry powder....but boy do I wish I'd sold more stocks.
revhappy
Posts: 266
Joined: Sat Jul 21, 2018 10:09 am
Location: Singapore

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by revhappy »

peskypesky wrote: Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:17 am
gas_balloon wrote: Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:14 am
My net worth almost doubled since the pandemic started. Always knew there will be a jolt some day. I stayed the course, increased bonds by 1% each year as planned, remained with 5/25 when needed. -200k after that may seem bad, but I'm still well ahead of where I thought I'd be right now.
yes, that's true for me as well. I have to admit I was giddy in October and November. My net wealth was far more than I could have dreamed of several years ago. I had a voice in my head telling me to cash out some of those "winnings"....but I was too greedy...and wanted more.

I did finally listen to that voice. I sold a chunk of stocks in December and early January, and about 90% of my crypto in the first week of January. So I have some dry powder....but boy do I wish I'd sold more stocks.
You have a high risk tolerance. Why do you wish you sold more stocks? Unless you think markets wont recover ever? The whole point of stay the course is, you stay the course, whether 50% stocks or 100% stocks. You need to be consistent, not get in and out, that is a sure recipe for disaster.
User avatar
HueyLD
Posts: 9789
Joined: Mon Jan 14, 2008 9:30 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HueyLD »

I will be 100% stocks when the markets finally reach the bottom. But my crystal ball is not clear enough to predict when that will be.
User avatar
Candor
Posts: 1287
Joined: Sat May 28, 2011 4:25 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Candor »

HueyLD wrote: Sun Jan 23, 2022 6:42 am I will be 100% stocks when the markets finally reach the bottom. But my crystal ball is not clear enough to predict when that will be.
So you are a 100% now?
The fool, with all his other faults, has this also - he is always getting ready to live. - Seneca Epistles < c. 65AD
User avatar
nedsaid
Posts: 19275
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2012 11:33 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid »

peskypesky wrote: Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:17 am
gas_balloon wrote: Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:14 am
My net worth almost doubled since the pandemic started. Always knew there will be a jolt some day. I stayed the course, increased bonds by 1% each year as planned, remained with 5/25 when needed. -200k after that may seem bad, but I'm still well ahead of where I thought I'd be right now.
yes, that's true for me as well. I have to admit I was giddy in October and November. My net wealth was far more than I could have dreamed of several years ago. I had a voice in my head telling me to cash out some of those "winnings"....but I was too greedy...and wanted more.

I did finally listen to that voice. I sold a chunk of stocks in December and early January, and about 90% of my crypto in the first week of January. So I have some dry powder....but boy do I wish I'd sold more stocks.
As they say, you never go broke taking a profit.
A fool and his money are good for business.
drk
Posts: 3943
Joined: Mon Jul 24, 2017 10:33 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by drk »

nedsaid wrote: Sun Jan 23, 2022 9:59 am As they say, you never go broke taking a profit.
That depends on what you do after taking the profit. See, e.g., Isaac Newton. :wink:
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
Robot Monster
Posts: 4215
Joined: Sun May 05, 2019 11:23 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

atdharris wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 1:48 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 1:42 pm You guys are missing out on most of the fun. Two of my funny money stocks are:

Amazon -4.18%
Disney -6.48%

Sorry, don't mean to humble-brag.
Right, what is going on with Amazon? Down nearly 5% today and closing in on a 52 week low - I guess it's all because of Netflix
"Bezos Loses $20 Billion in Brutal Week for Tech Billionaires"

I think we can both feel pretty chipper about having lost way less than that.
User avatar
peskypesky
Posts: 1023
Joined: Fri Mar 08, 2013 7:56 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

nedsaid wrote: Sun Jan 23, 2022 9:59 am
peskypesky wrote: Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:17 am
gas_balloon wrote: Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:14 am
My net worth almost doubled since the pandemic started. Always knew there will be a jolt some day. I stayed the course, increased bonds by 1% each year as planned, remained with 5/25 when needed. -200k after that may seem bad, but I'm still well ahead of where I thought I'd be right now.
yes, that's true for me as well. I have to admit I was giddy in October and November. My net wealth was far more than I could have dreamed of several years ago. I had a voice in my head telling me to cash out some of those "winnings"....but I was too greedy...and wanted more.

I did finally listen to that voice. I sold a chunk of stocks in December and early January, and about 90% of my crypto in the first week of January. So I have some dry powder....but boy do I wish I'd sold more stocks.
As they say, you never go broke taking a profit.
Yep.
rockstar
Posts: 6326
Joined: Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:51 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

peskypesky wrote: Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:09 am
gas_balloon wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:37 pm My net worth is ~$180,000 lower YTD. The party has just begun.
ouch.

I'm not far behind you. My net worth is about -$100k since early November.

I keep having to remind myself that the November number was not really "deserved". It was extremely inflated by loose monetary policy, leading to a big bubble in stocks and crypto. But it still hurts to see that net wealth number shrink so much. Kicking myself for not having bought about $150k in gold, as I had contemplated doing in December.

Oh well....
I'm in roughly the same camp. But I want to capture some of these incredible gains over the last two years. No clue what the bottom is. But I'll have a tax bill come April 2023.
stocknoob4111
Posts: 3509
Joined: Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:52 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 »

peskypesky wrote: Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:09 am
gas_balloon wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:37 pm My net worth is ~$180,000 lower YTD. The party has just begun.
ouch.

I'm not far behind you. My net worth is about -$100k since early November.
-$87,000 for me, I will have to start saving some money now by cutting back the cheese on my whopper....
User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 95686
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 4:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LadyGeek »

I removed an off-topic interchange regarding a YouTube video. The discussion was derailed.

Net worth can be discussed in Share your net worth progression
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
User avatar
peskypesky
Posts: 1023
Joined: Fri Mar 08, 2013 7:56 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Sun Jan 23, 2022 12:56 pm
peskypesky wrote: Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:09 am
gas_balloon wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:37 pm My net worth is ~$180,000 lower YTD. The party has just begun.
ouch.

I'm not far behind you. My net worth is about -$100k since early November.
-$87,000 for me, I will have to start saving some money now by cutting back the cheese on my whopper....
I'm stocking up on ramen and potatoes.
Morik
Posts: 1344
Joined: Tue Nov 25, 2014 11:26 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Morik »

Seeing people posting their gain/loss made me curious to go check mine.
I don't keep track explicitly, but do keep my current balance across all accounts in a spreadsheet (used to check drift/rebalance).

On Dec 18th I was ~1.85m total.
My AA was 80/20 stocks/fixed income.
Stocks 55% US total market, 45% international total market.
Fixed income 70% total US bond market, 30% TIAA traditional.

I have had contributions (backdoor roth, some 401k contributions, etc) of ~17k.
The balance as of market close 1/21 is ~1.825m. (+$105k from other contributions, but that was put in on 1/21 so not including it in the drop.)
So down ~42k. A 2.3% drop.


I was interested to look further back. Aug of 2018 I was 85/15 with ~25% of my fixed income in lending club notes that ended up with an average annualized return of -1.93% (according to my lendingclub dashboard). My balance has doubled since then--total balance was $973k. We do contribute quite a bit per year though: ~$100-$120k annually.

My earliest data in this sheet is Oct 2015, when we had ~$500k. We were contributing a little less then, maybe $80-$90k annually. This is when I started the lendingclub notes--I was 70/10/10/10 (stock/real estate/fixed income/lendingclub notes). Real estate was TREA (TIAA real estate account), fixed income was all in TIAA traditional. Stock was 55/45 domestic/international.

I hadn't really realized how crazy the growth has been.

I updated to 75/25 (and 30% of fixed income international bonds now), as I am eyeing early retirement in a few years. That rebalance was on 1/21. I realize this is still quite aggressive, but a 50% downturn would still leave me with 26x anticipated expenses right now and still years to continue saving.
Last edited by Morik on Sun Jan 23, 2022 7:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
andypanda
Posts: 2009
Joined: Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:11 pm
Location: Richmond, Virginia

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by andypanda »

"You lost money being invested in US total market for those 10 years."

As I'd been doing for two or three decades, I kept auto-buying every payday during those 10 years and stockpiled a lot of shares and/or units, etc. Having paid off my home in '97 I had extra money to invest, too. Those shares/units are worth more now.
Morik
Posts: 1344
Joined: Tue Nov 25, 2014 11:26 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Morik »

andypanda wrote: Sun Jan 23, 2022 4:20 pm "You lost money being invested in US total market for those 10 years."

As I'd been doing for two or three decades, I kept auto-buying every payday during those 10 years and stockpiled a lot of shares and/or units, etc. Having paid off my home in '97 I had extra money to invest, too. Those shares/units are worth more now.
A lost decade is worse for you than a good/normal decade.
It is less worse for you than it is for people in/near retirement, but it is still not a good thing for you, compared to a normal/good decade.
User avatar
HomerJ
Posts: 21281
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

Morik wrote: Sun Jan 23, 2022 4:38 pm
andypanda wrote: Sun Jan 23, 2022 4:20 pm "You lost money being invested in US total market for those 10 years."

As I'd been doing for two or three decades, I kept auto-buying every payday during those 10 years and stockpiled a lot of shares and/or units, etc. Having paid off my home in '97 I had extra money to invest, too. Those shares/units are worth more now.
A lost decade is worse for you than a good/normal decade.
It is less worse for you than it is for people in/near retirement, but it is still not a good thing for you, compared to a normal/good decade.
We don't get unending "normal" or "good" decades over and over. We usually get good decades followed by bad decades followed by good decades.

There are no good decades without some bad decades... Or good years without bad years. The "normal" return comes from averaging out the good and the bad. There are no decades where we got a steady 9% a year every year.

Stock market runs in cycles. Bad years and bad decades will happen. There is no escaping them.

Better they happen while you are accumulating, instead of right before you retire.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
marcopolo
Posts: 8445
Joined: Sat Dec 03, 2016 9:22 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by marcopolo »

peskypesky wrote: Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:09 am
gas_balloon wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:37 pm My net worth is ~$180,000 lower YTD. The party has just begun.
ouch.

I'm not far behind you. My net worth is about -$100k since early November.

I keep having to remind myself that the November number was not really "deserved". It was extremely inflated by loose monetary policy, leading to a big bubble in stocks and crypto. But it still hurts to see that net wealth number shrink so much. Kicking myself for not having bought about $150k in gold, as I had contemplated doing in December.

Oh well....
You lost money?
I thought it was "obvious" :oops:
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
Robot Monster
Posts: 4215
Joined: Sun May 05, 2019 11:23 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

I sometimes think about this quote:

“You could see a fairly rapid recovery... This wasn’t the bazooka... The Fed took out the whole military and applied it" -- JPM's Jamie Dimon, May 26 2020.
Twitter link

Sorry, that was apropos of nothing, or whatever that expression is.

Stock futures are flat. Now that's on topic. Woo. Oh wait, no, now they're up, with the Nasdaq in the lead!
andypanda
Posts: 2009
Joined: Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:11 pm
Location: Richmond, Virginia

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by andypanda »

I haven't lost any money this year. The balance is down, but the number of shares/units has increased a little through reinvestment.

The stock market isn't like putting coins in a piggy bank. You don't tally whether you've gained or lost money until you sell those shares/units because you don't know what you'll get for them until you sell them. Look at the number of shares you own, not that ever changing bouncing number at the bottom of your quarterly statement.

My number is down about 5.3% so far this year. That's noise. Things are still generally up. Chart of the S&P500 covering the past 58 years.

Image
masteraleph
Posts: 821
Joined: Wed Nov 04, 2009 8:45 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by masteraleph »

Interestingly, I've been keeping about 7.5% of my portfolio in TIAA Real Estate, which is an old thing on my IPS at this point. I've been thinking about the day when it'll need to go- my employer hasn't had a TIAA 403b in years, so there's a little in a liquid Traditional account from that 403b and the rest in TREA, and there's a good chance that we'll end up with so much in other accounts that said account won't even have 7.5% of our total retirement assets to use in that capacity.

But part of the reason for having it was that it supposedly diversified my holdings. And as it turns out- TREA is up this year! Not enough to wipe out my losses, of course, but it's interesting to see a part of a portfolio functioning the way it's supposed to.
Locked