U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Looks like we'll have another big red day tomorrow with the NFLX miss.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Ouch! I bought 2 shares of TQQQ today, so I share your pain, but 3 orders of magnitude smaller.
Last edited by Aaand...it'sgone on Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Netflix down 18% now. Goodness
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
What price?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Yes I remember how hard it was post 2008 crash for many people to get credit. This time around from what we know the banks are well capitalized but I will add a sustained downturn often reveals what's really going on.km91 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 1:41 pm
In 2008 there were a huge amount of credit losses in the system. Up until that point mortgage backed securities were considered pristine collateral, basically risk free, and underpinned much of the leverage in the financial system at the time. When it turned out that MBS weren't as high quality as originally thought, anyone who was putting them up as collateral got burnt (insurance companies, banks, hedge funds). These institutions didn't have the money to pile back into the market after the crash, their collateral took a haircut.
In 2020 there were very little if any credit losses. The Fed stepped in and provided emergency liquidity facilities and corps were able to raise the cash they needed to weather the pandemic. It had nothing to do with Ackman deciding it was over
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
From yahoo finance:
52 Week Range 478.54 - 700.99
P/E ratio before this earnings: 45
(+)
Bad earnings?
I would say, it has some ways to go down.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Netflix earnings were great people are bailing/profit taking on news of the forward guidance.
Here are the key numbers:
Earnings per share (EPS): $1.33 vs 82 cents expected in a survey of analysts.
Revenue: $7.71 billion vs $7.71 billion expected.
Global paid net subscriber additions: 8.28 million vs 8.19 million expected, according to StreetAccount estimates
Here are the key numbers:
Earnings per share (EPS): $1.33 vs 82 cents expected in a survey of analysts.
Revenue: $7.71 billion vs $7.71 billion expected.
Global paid net subscriber additions: 8.28 million vs 8.19 million expected, according to StreetAccount estimates
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
So that people can ask questions with deep thoughts.Crushtheturtle wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:42 pm Why is it called a "correction" if the markets are efficiently priced?
... deep thoughts ...
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Seemed obvious to me that at some point people would get fatigued on watching Netflix all day.
Anyways, are the days over when media would report XYX is "plunging" after hours, when it was really only down 4, or 5% ???
Maybe now there will be some real plunging, like in the old days, down 20% after hours.
Anyways, are the days over when media would report XYX is "plunging" after hours, when it was really only down 4, or 5% ???
Maybe now there will be some real plunging, like in the old days, down 20% after hours.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
This is fantastic news. CAPE will surely be dropping, which means good times ahead.
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
My limit orders hit as well, including TQQQ. I do think we're close to a bottom.Aaand...it'sgone wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:28 pmOuch! I bought 2 shares of TQQQ today, so I share your pain, but 3 orders of magnitude smaller.
Market timer targeting long term cycles -- aiming for several key decisions per asset class per decade
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Could we be so lucky to see $3xx.xx print today?
Need another couple of percent.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Why do you think CAPE would be dropping?canadianbacon wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:37 pm This is fantastic news. CAPE will surely be dropping, which means good times ahead.
Say, if earnings in the next couple of years are 25% lower than today's expectations, that would hit the "E" in CAPE big time.
I don't carry a signature because people are easily offended.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
More risk more reward, maybe....Aaand...it'sgone wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:28 pmOuch! I bought 2 shares of TQQQ today, so I share your pain, but 3 orders of magnitude smaller.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
NFLX is down 20% now AH.squirm wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:37 pm Seemed obvious to me that at some point people would get fatigued on watching Netflix all day.
Anyways, are the days over when media would report XYX is "plunging" after hours, when it was really only down 4, or 5% ???
Maybe now there will be some real plunging, like in the old days, down 20% after hours.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Netflix is no longer unique.squirm wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:37 pm Seemed obvious to me that at some point people would get fatigued on watching Netflix all day.
Anyways, are the days over when media would report XYX is "plunging" after hours, when it was really only down 4, or 5% ???
Maybe now there will be some real plunging, like in the old days, down 20% after hours.
Amazon Prime
HBO Max
Disney +
Whatever
Also, a stock that went to the moon during the pandemic will surely come down after the pandemic is over.
Just look at Peloton: selling an overpriced piece of metal.
Or look at Zillow. They bought so many houses, and in the process drove up the prices, that then they had to ditch that market entirely.
Irrational exuberance everywhere.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Hoping to sell tomorrow morning for a profit, and then i can use the money on yard projects.UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:24 pmWhy did you buy?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
20% sale? Must be TJ Maxx.atdharris wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:43 pmNFLX is down 20% now AH.squirm wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:37 pm Seemed obvious to me that at some point people would get fatigued on watching Netflix all day.
Anyways, are the days over when media would report XYX is "plunging" after hours, when it was really only down 4, or 5% ???
Maybe now there will be some real plunging, like in the old days, down 20% after hours.
I don't carry a signature because people are easily offended.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I would say: that was extraordinary timing.
On a down day, you manage to buy almost near the day's low print ($61.50).
I bought some VITSX, but mutual funds print at the closing price.
I don't carry a signature because people are easily offended.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Capitalism is done
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
You gambled $120,000 for one day? If you can afford to gamble that much, you can already afford the yard projects.jarjarM wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:43 pmHoping to sell tomorrow morning for a profit, and then i can use the money on yard projects.
Last edited by HomerJ on Thu Jan 20, 2022 4:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Earlier this month Jason Zweig of the WSJ said "The best investment of 2022 is likely to be discipline": https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-best-i ... 1641571196
For Bogleheads, I interpret that as "stay the course"
For Bogleheads, I interpret that as "stay the course"
- Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I sold $5k of an ETF mid-day to have enough funds available for one of my approaching RMDs. Looks like I sold at a high point for a change. Who says market timing doesn't work?
I do apologize for toppling the dominoes for the rest of you folks by my selling activity. No worries though. Things will turn around in a couple of days. They always do.
In the meanwhile, wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!
I do apologize for toppling the dominoes for the rest of you folks by my selling activity. No worries though. Things will turn around in a couple of days. They always do.
In the meanwhile, wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Sooo anything major get announced today? I saw the market up about 1% around lunch time. Come back after work & the s&p is down over 1.75%. Haha. A nice swing as my big buy for my self directed 403b order gets completed today.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
User name checks out.Aaand...it'sgone wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:28 pm Ouch! I bought 2 shares of TQQQ today, so I share your pain, but 3 orders of magnitude smaller.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Great advice!AnalogKid22 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:48 pm Earlier this month Jason Zweig of the WSJ said "The best investment of 2022 is likely to be discipline": https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-best-i ... 1641571196
For Bogleheads, I interpret that as "stay the course"
I don't carry a signature because people are easily offended.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It was 39.63 on January 1st and it's 37.03 today. What happens in a couple of years I don't predict.AlphaLess wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:42 pmWhy do you think CAPE would be dropping?canadianbacon wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:37 pm This is fantastic news. CAPE will surely be dropping, which means good times ahead.
Say, if earnings in the next couple of years are 25% lower than today's expectations, that would hit the "E" in CAPE big time.
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
CAPE has nothing to do with today's expectations.AlphaLess wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:42 pmWhy do you think CAPE would be dropping?canadianbacon wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:37 pm This is fantastic news. CAPE will surely be dropping, which means good times ahead.
Say, if earnings in the next couple of years are 25% lower than today's expectations, that would hit the "E" in CAPE big time.
If prices drop and new earnings are at least as good as the adjusted old (10 year old) earnings that drop off the 10yr average, then CAPE will drop.
Because earnings are averaged, but the numerator is current price, price changes have much more immediate impact than earnings changes.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
But you are not updating the "E" part.canadianbacon wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 4:04 pmIt was 39.63 on January 1st and it's 37.03 today. What happens in a couple of years I don't predict.AlphaLess wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:42 pmWhy do you think CAPE would be dropping?canadianbacon wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:37 pm This is fantastic news. CAPE will surely be dropping, which means good times ahead.
Say, if earnings in the next couple of years are 25% lower than today's expectations, that would hit the "E" in CAPE big time.
Only the "P".
I don't carry a signature because people are easily offended.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I can't update E with data that doesn't exist yet. But we see P falling. I mean, you're being a little overly literal for what was a quip, but it also seems like you're wrong .
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Not in China!
"In 2000, China’s middle class amounted to just three percent of its population. By 2018, this number had climbed to over half of the population, constituting nearly 707 million people."
https://chinapower.csis.org/china-middle-class/
I was talking to my brother about China last night. He's been there twice. The first time about 24 years ago, the second time in 2019. He said "the first time I went, everyone was riding bicycles. The second time I went, everyone was driving Mercedes."
Last edited by peskypesky on Thu Jan 20, 2022 4:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
One of the reasons why the stock market can sustain such irrationally high CAPE (37) has to do with the expectation of future earnings being high.marcopolo wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 4:09 pmCAPE has nothing to do with today's expectations.AlphaLess wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:42 pmWhy do you think CAPE would be dropping?canadianbacon wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:37 pm This is fantastic news. CAPE will surely be dropping, which means good times ahead.
Say, if earnings in the next couple of years are 25% lower than today's expectations, that would hit the "E" in CAPE big time.
If prices drop and new earnings are at least as good as the adjusted old (10 year old) earnings that drop off the 10yr average, then CAPE will drop.
Because earnings are averaged, but the numerator is current price, price changes have much more immediate impact than earnings changes.
If, for example, the next year's earnings is magically half of what is expected, what would happen?
Yes, T-10 earnings (which is low) would drop off, and the next year's earnings will enter the equation, and the total sum of inflation adjusted earnings would only be slightly down.
However, the market price be destroyed in the process. But if the following 10 years of earnings are also at a lower level, that is not really good.
Price is only volatile because it is trying to efficiently price the expectation of future earnings.
And CAPE is high because expectation of future earnings is high, everything else being equal.
Irrationally high earnings are expected:
https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio/table/by-month
I don't carry a signature because people are easily offended.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Here we go again with social discussions.peskypesky wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 4:14 pmNot in China!
"In 2000, China’s middle class amounted to just three percent of its population. By 2018, this number had climbed to over half of the population, constituting nearly 707 million people."
https://chinapower.csis.org/china-middle-class/
I was talking to my brother about China last night. He's been there twice. The first time about 24 years ago, the second time in 2019. He said "the first time I went, everyone was riding bicycles. The second time I went, everyone was driving Mercedes."
Moderators to remove this in 3 .. 2 .. 1
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Earnings are updated month-to-month, or at least if we believe this website.AlphaLess wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 4:10 pmBut you are not updating the "E" part.canadianbacon wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 4:04 pmIt was 39.63 on January 1st and it's 37.03 today. What happens in a couple of years I don't predict.AlphaLess wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:42 pmWhy do you think CAPE would be dropping?canadianbacon wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:37 pm This is fantastic news. CAPE will surely be dropping, which means good times ahead.
Say, if earnings in the next couple of years are 25% lower than today's expectations, that would hit the "E" in CAPE big time.
Only the "P".
In fact, earnings could be updated day-to-day, given that we have 100-ish companies announcing earnings per day, during this earnings season.
https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings/table/by-month
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I also did some market timing, which worked out well for me, but badly for everyone else. I sold all my VOOG and most of my tech stocks earlier in January. Saved myself from further losses. Started domino effect sell-off.Doom&Gloom wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:57 pm I sold $5k of an ETF mid-day to have enough funds available for one of my approaching RMDs. Looks like I sold at a high point for a change. Who says market timing doesn't work?
I do apologize for toppling the dominoes for the rest of you folks by my selling activity. No worries though. Things will turn around in a couple of days. They always do.
In the meanwhile, wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
As they say, the higher they climb, the harder they fall.atdharris wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:43 pmNFLX is down 20% now AH.squirm wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:37 pm Seemed obvious to me that at some point people would get fatigued on watching Netflix all day.
Anyways, are the days over when media would report XYX is "plunging" after hours, when it was really only down 4, or 5% ???
Maybe now there will be some real plunging, like in the old days, down 20% after hours.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Which also seems to support Candianbacon's thought that CAPE will be dropping.AlphaLess wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 4:15 pmOne of the reasons why the stock market can sustain such irrationally high CAPE (37) has to do with the expectation of future earnings being high.marcopolo wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 4:09 pmCAPE has nothing to do with today's expectations.AlphaLess wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:42 pmWhy do you think CAPE would be dropping?canadianbacon wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:37 pm This is fantastic news. CAPE will surely be dropping, which means good times ahead.
Say, if earnings in the next couple of years are 25% lower than today's expectations, that would hit the "E" in CAPE big time.
If prices drop and new earnings are at least as good as the adjusted old (10 year old) earnings that drop off the 10yr average, then CAPE will drop.
Because earnings are averaged, but the numerator is current price, price changes have much more immediate impact than earnings changes.
If, for example, the next year's earnings is magically half of what is expected, what would happen?
Yes, T-10 earnings (which is low) would drop off, and the next year's earnings will enter the equation, and the total sum of inflation adjusted earnings would only be slightly down.
However, the market price be destroyed in the process. But if the following 10 years of earnings are also at a lower level, that is not really good.
Price is only volatile because it is trying to efficiently price the expectation of future earnings.
And CAPE is high because expectation of future earnings is high, everything else being equal.
Irrationally high earnings are expected:
https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio/table/by-month
Why do you think it will NOT be dropping?
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Well, if you put it that way... I blame this on the inability to head over to Las Vegas. Although this year is definitely a risk-off year, so all speculative gambling bets are for short term only.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
If he bought at 12:58 PST, he bought at around $65 per share.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Should be a pretty easy ride to 350.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I executed all 2022 lump sum contributions on 1/3. But there was just something in the air telling me to hold off from investing it, and so it continues to sit in cash.
I thought today would have been the day of regret but apparently not.
Yeah yeah I know. *market timing* blah blah blah. I already know that I know nothing.
I thought today would have been the day of regret but apparently not.
Yeah yeah I know. *market timing* blah blah blah. I already know that I know nothing.