U.S. stocks in free fall

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

Looks like we'll have another big red day tomorrow with the NFLX miss.
456M
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 456M »

fanmail wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:03 pm NFLX down 8% afterhours, market not liking their earnings call
Down 15% and dropping. Wow.
UpperNwGuy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by UpperNwGuy »

jarjarM wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:16 pm
Visitor76 wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:10 pm
AlphaLess wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:06 pm
fanmail wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:03 pm NFLX down 8% afterhours, market not liking their earnings call
Boom. SP500 will take another hike down a mountain.
Hike? More like a trip and fall.
Darn, i just bought 2000 shares of TQQQ @ 12:58pm PST. That's going down the drain... :oops:
Why did you buy?
fanmail
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by fanmail »

456M wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:22 pm
fanmail wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:03 pm NFLX down 8% afterhours, market not liking their earnings call
Down 15% and dropping. Wow.
yeah not sure how much impact it will have on the broader market, but its not looking great
456M
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 456M »

fanmail wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:25 pm
456M wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:22 pm
fanmail wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:03 pm NFLX down 8% afterhours, market not liking their earnings call
Down 15% and dropping. Wow.
yeah not sure how much impact it will have on the broader market, but its not looking great
Disney and Roku both dropping AH as well.
Aaand...it'sgone
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Aaand...it'sgone »

jarjarM wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:16 pm
Visitor76 wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:10 pm
AlphaLess wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:06 pm
fanmail wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:03 pm NFLX down 8% afterhours, market not liking their earnings call
Boom. SP500 will take another hike down a mountain.
Hike? More like a trip and fall.
Darn, i just bought 2000 shares of TQQQ @ 12:58pm PST. That's going down the drain... :oops:
Ouch! I bought 2 shares of TQQQ today, so I share your pain, but 3 orders of magnitude smaller.
Last edited by Aaand...it'sgone on Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

Netflix down 18% now. Goodness
AlphaLess
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess »

jarjarM wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:16 pm
Visitor76 wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:10 pm
AlphaLess wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:06 pm
fanmail wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:03 pm NFLX down 8% afterhours, market not liking their earnings call
Boom. SP500 will take another hike down a mountain.
Hike? More like a trip and fall.
Darn, i just bought 2000 shares of TQQQ @ 12:58pm PST. That's going down the drain... :oops:
What price?
I don't carry a signature because people are easily offended.
fanmail
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by fanmail »

atdharris wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:29 pm Netflix down 18% now. Goodness
Rough. Now 40% off the ATH from October.
GP813
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by GP813 »

km91 wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 1:41 pm

In 2008 there were a huge amount of credit losses in the system. Up until that point mortgage backed securities were considered pristine collateral, basically risk free, and underpinned much of the leverage in the financial system at the time. When it turned out that MBS weren't as high quality as originally thought, anyone who was putting them up as collateral got burnt (insurance companies, banks, hedge funds). These institutions didn't have the money to pile back into the market after the crash, their collateral took a haircut.

In 2020 there were very little if any credit losses. The Fed stepped in and provided emergency liquidity facilities and corps were able to raise the cash they needed to weather the pandemic. It had nothing to do with Ackman deciding it was over
Yes I remember how hard it was post 2008 crash for many people to get credit. This time around from what we know the banks are well capitalized but I will add a sustained downturn often reveals what's really going on.
AlphaLess
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess »

atdharris wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:29 pm Netflix down 18% now. Goodness
From yahoo finance:
52 Week Range 478.54 - 700.99

P/E ratio before this earnings: 45
(+)
Bad earnings?

I would say, it has some ways to go down.
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456M
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 456M »

fanmail wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:30 pm
atdharris wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:29 pm Netflix down 18% now. Goodness
Rough. Now 40% off the ATH from October.
Back to June 2018 levels.
GP813
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by GP813 »

Netflix earnings were great people are bailing/profit taking on news of the forward guidance.

Here are the key numbers:

Earnings per share (EPS): $1.33 vs 82 cents expected in a survey of analysts.

Revenue: $7.71 billion vs $7.71 billion expected.

Global paid net subscriber additions: 8.28 million vs 8.19 million expected, according to StreetAccount estimates
AlphaLess
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess »

Crushtheturtle wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:42 pm Why is it called a "correction" if the markets are efficiently priced?

... deep thoughts ...
So that people can ask questions with deep thoughts.
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squirm
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by squirm »

Seemed obvious to me that at some point people would get fatigued on watching Netflix all day.

Anyways, are the days over when media would report XYX is "plunging" after hours, when it was really only down 4, or 5% ???

Maybe now there will be some real plunging, like in the old days, down 20% after hours.
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canadianbacon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by canadianbacon »

This is fantastic news. CAPE will surely be dropping, which means good times ahead.
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
NoRegret
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by NoRegret »

Aaand...it'sgone wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:28 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:16 pm
Visitor76 wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:10 pm
AlphaLess wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:06 pm
fanmail wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:03 pm NFLX down 8% afterhours, market not liking their earnings call
Boom. SP500 will take another hike down a mountain.
Hike? More like a trip and fall.
Darn, i just bought 2000 shares of TQQQ @ 12:58pm PST. That's going down the drain... :oops:
Ouch! I bought 2 shares of TQQQ today, so I share your pain, but 3 orders of magnitude smaller.
My limit orders hit as well, including TQQQ. I do think we're close to a bottom.
Market timer targeting long term cycles -- aiming for several key decisions per asset class per decade
AlphaLess
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess »

456M wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:31 pm
fanmail wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:30 pm
atdharris wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:29 pm Netflix down 18% now. Goodness
Rough. Now 40% off the ATH from October.
Back to June 2018 levels.
Could we be so lucky to see $3xx.xx print today?
Need another couple of percent.
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AlphaLess
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess »

canadianbacon wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:37 pm This is fantastic news. CAPE will surely be dropping, which means good times ahead.
Why do you think CAPE would be dropping?

Say, if earnings in the next couple of years are 25% lower than today's expectations, that would hit the "E" in CAPE big time.
I don't carry a signature because people are easily offended.
jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jarjarM »

AlphaLess wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:29 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:16 pm
Visitor76 wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:10 pm
AlphaLess wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:06 pm
fanmail wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:03 pm NFLX down 8% afterhours, market not liking their earnings call
Boom. SP500 will take another hike down a mountain.
Hike? More like a trip and fall.
Darn, i just bought 2000 shares of TQQQ @ 12:58pm PST. That's going down the drain... :oops:
What price?
$61.59 per share.
jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jarjarM »

Aaand...it'sgone wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:28 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:16 pm
Visitor76 wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:10 pm
AlphaLess wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:06 pm
fanmail wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:03 pm NFLX down 8% afterhours, market not liking their earnings call
Boom. SP500 will take another hike down a mountain.
Hike? More like a trip and fall.
Darn, i just bought 2000 shares of TQQQ @ 12:58pm PST. That's going down the drain... :oops:
Ouch! I bought 2 shares of TQQQ today, so I share your pain, but 3 orders of magnitude smaller.
More risk more reward, maybe.... :P
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

squirm wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:37 pm Seemed obvious to me that at some point people would get fatigued on watching Netflix all day.

Anyways, are the days over when media would report XYX is "plunging" after hours, when it was really only down 4, or 5% ???

Maybe now there will be some real plunging, like in the old days, down 20% after hours.
NFLX is down 20% now AH.
AlphaLess
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess »

squirm wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:37 pm Seemed obvious to me that at some point people would get fatigued on watching Netflix all day.

Anyways, are the days over when media would report XYX is "plunging" after hours, when it was really only down 4, or 5% ???

Maybe now there will be some real plunging, like in the old days, down 20% after hours.
Netflix is no longer unique.

Amazon Prime
HBO Max
Disney +
Whatever

Also, a stock that went to the moon during the pandemic will surely come down after the pandemic is over.

Just look at Peloton: selling an overpriced piece of metal.

Or look at Zillow. They bought so many houses, and in the process drove up the prices, that then they had to ditch that market entirely.

Irrational exuberance everywhere.
I don't carry a signature because people are easily offended.
jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jarjarM »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:24 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:16 pm
Visitor76 wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:10 pm
AlphaLess wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:06 pm
fanmail wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:03 pm NFLX down 8% afterhours, market not liking their earnings call
Boom. SP500 will take another hike down a mountain.
Hike? More like a trip and fall.
Darn, i just bought 2000 shares of TQQQ @ 12:58pm PST. That's going down the drain... :oops:
Why did you buy?
Hoping to sell tomorrow morning for a profit, and then i can use the money on yard projects.
AlphaLess
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess »

atdharris wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:43 pm
squirm wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:37 pm Seemed obvious to me that at some point people would get fatigued on watching Netflix all day.

Anyways, are the days over when media would report XYX is "plunging" after hours, when it was really only down 4, or 5% ???

Maybe now there will be some real plunging, like in the old days, down 20% after hours.
NFLX is down 20% now AH.
20% sale? Must be TJ Maxx.
I don't carry a signature because people are easily offended.
AlphaLess
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess »

jarjarM wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:42 pm
AlphaLess wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:29 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:16 pm
Visitor76 wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:10 pm
AlphaLess wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:06 pm

Boom. SP500 will take another hike down a mountain.
Hike? More like a trip and fall.
Darn, i just bought 2000 shares of TQQQ @ 12:58pm PST. That's going down the drain... :oops:
What price?
$61.59 per share.
I would say: that was extraordinary timing.
On a down day, you manage to buy almost near the day's low print ($61.50).

I bought some VITSX, but mutual funds print at the closing price.
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newyorker
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by newyorker »

Capitalism is done
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

jarjarM wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:43 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:24 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:16 pm
Visitor76 wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:10 pm
AlphaLess wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:06 pm

Boom. SP500 will take another hike down a mountain.
Hike? More like a trip and fall.
Darn, i just bought 2000 shares of TQQQ @ 12:58pm PST. That's going down the drain... :oops:
Why did you buy?
Hoping to sell tomorrow morning for a profit, and then i can use the money on yard projects.
You gambled $120,000 for one day? If you can afford to gamble that much, you can already afford the yard projects. :)
Last edited by HomerJ on Thu Jan 20, 2022 4:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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AnalogKid22
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AnalogKid22 »

Earlier this month Jason Zweig of the WSJ said "The best investment of 2022 is likely to be discipline": https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-best-i ... 1641571196

For Bogleheads, I interpret that as "stay the course" :D
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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom »

I sold $5k of an ETF mid-day to have enough funds available for one of my approaching RMDs. Looks like I sold at a high point for a change. Who says market timing doesn't work?

I do apologize for toppling the dominoes for the rest of you folks by my selling activity. No worries though. Things will turn around in a couple of days. They always do.

In the meanwhile, wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!
jeremyl
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jeremyl »

Sooo anything major get announced today? I saw the market up about 1% around lunch time. Come back after work & the s&p is down over 1.75%. Haha. A nice swing as my big buy for my self directed 403b order gets completed today.
000
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

Aaand...it'sgone wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:28 pm Ouch! I bought 2 shares of TQQQ today, so I share your pain, but 3 orders of magnitude smaller.
User name checks out. 8-)
AlphaLess
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess »

AnalogKid22 wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:48 pm Earlier this month Jason Zweig of the WSJ said "The best investment of 2022 is likely to be discipline": https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-best-i ... 1641571196

For Bogleheads, I interpret that as "stay the course" :D
Great advice!
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canadianbacon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by canadianbacon »

AlphaLess wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:42 pm
canadianbacon wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:37 pm This is fantastic news. CAPE will surely be dropping, which means good times ahead.
Why do you think CAPE would be dropping?

Say, if earnings in the next couple of years are 25% lower than today's expectations, that would hit the "E" in CAPE big time.
It was 39.63 on January 1st and it's 37.03 today. What happens in a couple of years I don't predict.
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
marcopolo
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by marcopolo »

AlphaLess wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:42 pm
canadianbacon wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:37 pm This is fantastic news. CAPE will surely be dropping, which means good times ahead.
Why do you think CAPE would be dropping?

Say, if earnings in the next couple of years are 25% lower than today's expectations, that would hit the "E" in CAPE big time.
CAPE has nothing to do with today's expectations.

If prices drop and new earnings are at least as good as the adjusted old (10 year old) earnings that drop off the 10yr average, then CAPE will drop.
Because earnings are averaged, but the numerator is current price, price changes have much more immediate impact than earnings changes.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
AlphaLess
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess »

canadianbacon wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 4:04 pm
AlphaLess wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:42 pm
canadianbacon wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:37 pm This is fantastic news. CAPE will surely be dropping, which means good times ahead.
Why do you think CAPE would be dropping?

Say, if earnings in the next couple of years are 25% lower than today's expectations, that would hit the "E" in CAPE big time.
It was 39.63 on January 1st and it's 37.03 today. What happens in a couple of years I don't predict.
But you are not updating the "E" part.
Only the "P".
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canadianbacon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by canadianbacon »

AlphaLess wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 4:10 pm But you are not updating the "E" part.
Only the "P".
I can't update E with data that doesn't exist yet. But we see P falling. I mean, you're being a little overly literal for what was a quip, but it also seems like you're wrong :-D.
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
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peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

newyorker wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:46 pm Capitalism is done
Not in China!
"In 2000, China’s middle class amounted to just three percent of its population. By 2018, this number had climbed to over half of the population, constituting nearly 707 million people."

https://chinapower.csis.org/china-middle-class/

I was talking to my brother about China last night. He's been there twice. The first time about 24 years ago, the second time in 2019. He said "the first time I went, everyone was riding bicycles. The second time I went, everyone was driving Mercedes."
Last edited by peskypesky on Thu Jan 20, 2022 4:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
AlphaLess
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess »

marcopolo wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 4:09 pm
AlphaLess wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:42 pm
canadianbacon wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:37 pm This is fantastic news. CAPE will surely be dropping, which means good times ahead.
Why do you think CAPE would be dropping?

Say, if earnings in the next couple of years are 25% lower than today's expectations, that would hit the "E" in CAPE big time.
CAPE has nothing to do with today's expectations.

If prices drop and new earnings are at least as good as the adjusted old (10 year old) earnings that drop off the 10yr average, then CAPE will drop.
Because earnings are averaged, but the numerator is current price, price changes have much more immediate impact than earnings changes.
One of the reasons why the stock market can sustain such irrationally high CAPE (37) has to do with the expectation of future earnings being high.

If, for example, the next year's earnings is magically half of what is expected, what would happen?

Yes, T-10 earnings (which is low) would drop off, and the next year's earnings will enter the equation, and the total sum of inflation adjusted earnings would only be slightly down.

However, the market price be destroyed in the process. But if the following 10 years of earnings are also at a lower level, that is not really good.

Price is only volatile because it is trying to efficiently price the expectation of future earnings.
And CAPE is high because expectation of future earnings is high, everything else being equal.

Irrationally high earnings are expected:

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio/table/by-month
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AlphaLess
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess »

peskypesky wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 4:14 pm
newyorker wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:46 pm Capitalism is done
Not in China!
"In 2000, China’s middle class amounted to just three percent of its population. By 2018, this number had climbed to over half of the population, constituting nearly 707 million people."

https://chinapower.csis.org/china-middle-class/

I was talking to my brother about China last night. He's been there twice. The first time about 24 years ago, the second time in 2019. He said "the first time I went, everyone was riding bicycles. The second time I went, everyone was driving Mercedes."
Here we go again with social discussions.

Moderators to remove this in 3 .. 2 .. 1
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peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

HomerJ wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:47 pm You gambled $120,000 for one day? If you can afford to gamble that much, you can already afford the yard projects. :)
You don't know how big his yard is.
AlphaLess
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess »

AlphaLess wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 4:10 pm
canadianbacon wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 4:04 pm
AlphaLess wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:42 pm
canadianbacon wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:37 pm This is fantastic news. CAPE will surely be dropping, which means good times ahead.
Why do you think CAPE would be dropping?

Say, if earnings in the next couple of years are 25% lower than today's expectations, that would hit the "E" in CAPE big time.
It was 39.63 on January 1st and it's 37.03 today. What happens in a couple of years I don't predict.
But you are not updating the "E" part.
Only the "P".
Earnings are updated month-to-month, or at least if we believe this website.

In fact, earnings could be updated day-to-day, given that we have 100-ish companies announcing earnings per day, during this earnings season.

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings/table/by-month
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peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

Doom&Gloom wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:57 pm I sold $5k of an ETF mid-day to have enough funds available for one of my approaching RMDs. Looks like I sold at a high point for a change. Who says market timing doesn't work?

I do apologize for toppling the dominoes for the rest of you folks by my selling activity. No worries though. Things will turn around in a couple of days. They always do.

In the meanwhile, wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!
I also did some market timing, which worked out well for me, but badly for everyone else. I sold all my VOOG and most of my tech stocks earlier in January. Saved myself from further losses. Started domino effect sell-off. :oops:
squirm
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by squirm »

atdharris wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:43 pm
squirm wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:37 pm Seemed obvious to me that at some point people would get fatigued on watching Netflix all day.

Anyways, are the days over when media would report XYX is "plunging" after hours, when it was really only down 4, or 5% ???

Maybe now there will be some real plunging, like in the old days, down 20% after hours.
NFLX is down 20% now AH.
As they say, the higher they climb, the harder they fall.
marcopolo
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by marcopolo »

AlphaLess wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 4:15 pm
marcopolo wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 4:09 pm
AlphaLess wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:42 pm
canadianbacon wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:37 pm This is fantastic news. CAPE will surely be dropping, which means good times ahead.
Why do you think CAPE would be dropping?

Say, if earnings in the next couple of years are 25% lower than today's expectations, that would hit the "E" in CAPE big time.
CAPE has nothing to do with today's expectations.

If prices drop and new earnings are at least as good as the adjusted old (10 year old) earnings that drop off the 10yr average, then CAPE will drop.
Because earnings are averaged, but the numerator is current price, price changes have much more immediate impact than earnings changes.
One of the reasons why the stock market can sustain such irrationally high CAPE (37) has to do with the expectation of future earnings being high.

If, for example, the next year's earnings is magically half of what is expected, what would happen?

Yes, T-10 earnings (which is low) would drop off, and the next year's earnings will enter the equation, and the total sum of inflation adjusted earnings would only be slightly down.

However, the market price be destroyed in the process. But if the following 10 years of earnings are also at a lower level, that is not really good.

Price is only volatile because it is trying to efficiently price the expectation of future earnings.
And CAPE is high because expectation of future earnings is high, everything else being equal.

Irrationally high earnings are expected:

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio/table/by-month
Which also seems to support Candianbacon's thought that CAPE will be dropping.
Why do you think it will NOT be dropping?
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
jarjarM
Posts: 2511
Joined: Mon Jul 16, 2018 1:21 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jarjarM »

HomerJ wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:47 pm You gambled $120,000 for one day? If you can afford to gamble that much, you can already afford the yard projects. :)
Well, if you put it that way... 8-) I blame this on the inability to head over to Las Vegas. Although this year is definitely a risk-off year, so all speculative gambling bets are for short term only.
Triple digit golfer
Posts: 10433
Joined: Mon May 18, 2009 5:57 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Triple digit golfer »

fanmail wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:30 pm
atdharris wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:29 pm Netflix down 18% now. Goodness
Rough. Now 40% off the ATH from October.
No, about 26%.
Triple digit golfer
Posts: 10433
Joined: Mon May 18, 2009 5:57 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Triple digit golfer »

AlphaLess wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:46 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:42 pm
AlphaLess wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:29 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:16 pm
Visitor76 wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:10 pm

Hike? More like a trip and fall.
Darn, i just bought 2000 shares of TQQQ @ 12:58pm PST. That's going down the drain... :oops:
What price?
$61.59 per share.
I would say: that was extraordinary timing.
On a down day, you manage to buy almost near the day's low print ($61.50).

I bought some VITSX, but mutual funds print at the closing price.
If he bought at 12:58 PST, he bought at around $65 per share.
squirm
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Joined: Sat Mar 19, 2011 11:53 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by squirm »

Should be a pretty easy ride to 350.
kinless
Posts: 146
Joined: Sat May 15, 2010 11:54 pm
Location: Tustin, CA

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by kinless »

I executed all 2022 lump sum contributions on 1/3. But there was just something in the air telling me to hold off from investing it, and so it continues to sit in cash.

I thought today would have been the day of regret but apparently not.

Yeah yeah I know. *market timing* blah blah blah. ;) I already know that I know nothing.
Locked