U.S. stocks in free fall

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
AlphaLess
Posts: 3409
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 11:38 pm
Location: Kentucky

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess »

I think people are confounding various effects: depression, stock market drop, housing price drop.
The discussion is going into the direction of wishes and counter-wishes.

This is not 1930s.
This is not 1999/2000.
This is not 2008/2009.
This is not even Mar 2020.

This 2022.
It will be different this time.

Also, no one person's wishes are going to determine future outcomes.
Maybe someone's prediction (randomly) realizes, but that does not mean causality.

My 3 cents:
- be thankful for what you have,
- this is not a zero sum gain: someone's gain does not have to come at someone else's pain,
- stay the course, and carry on.

And if you find yourself frustrated for whatever reason (e.g., market is down or market is up), then there are ways to deal with.
I don't carry a signature because people are easily offended.
quattro73
Posts: 260
Joined: Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:07 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by quattro73 »

peskypesky wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 4:57 am
Yesterdaysnews wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:46 pm Crypto could certainly go to zero. It is absolutely reasonable to believe cryptocurrencies are worthless. What ripple effects that has is anyone's guess. Considering the money machines the large cap US companies are I do believe stocks will ultimately be just fine but I anticipate a rocky year.
Crypto was one thing, but the arrival of the NFT insanity was another. From out of the blue, all of a sudden people were spending millions of dollars for a pixelated jpeg or a cartoon of an ape. If that wasn't the sign of a bubble that needed to burst, I don't know what could be.

[Embedded image removed by admin LadyGeek. Here's the link:}
https://www.aol.com/pack-9-cryptopunk-n ... 45199.html
I bet the scam artist ( or genius) who sold that garbage put the money in cold, hard cash, not more crypto, or NFTs or whatever.
quattro73
Posts: 260
Joined: Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:07 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by quattro73 »

Blue456 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:06 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 4:22 am The market has returned 15% a year for a decade, plus you guys had the greatest bond bull market in history. You older folks should be just fine. Us younger folks need some good.accumulation years. A downturn as provides us some future returns.
I feel the same way. I feel cheated buying US stocks at prices they are right now. Hoping for a good lost decade or two. On the other hand for those who are older in here and with high equity allocation it could be absolutely devastating.
We can get basically the same effect by just having a couple three years of holding par or slight loss or slight gain. We can travel sideways for a bit, we don’t have to have a bloodbath. Just a thought.
Last edited by quattro73 on Sat Jan 22, 2022 9:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
canadianbacon
Posts: 677
Joined: Sun Nov 10, 2019 9:04 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by canadianbacon »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 4:22 am The market has returned 15% a year for a decade, plus you guys had the greatest bond bull market in history. You older folks should be just fine. Us younger folks need some good.accumulation years. A downturn as provides us some future returns.
A lot of the younger folks in tech are getting good accumulation years through inflated comp packages. Doesn't matter how you get there as long as you get there.

Also, another reminder that accumulators often don't get to continue accumulating during serious economic downturns. I expect that mentality on Reddit, not here :).

(I was down 4% overall this week -- worst week since March 2020)
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
Fortitude
Posts: 201
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:41 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Fortitude »

deepvalleys wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:54 am I deployed some "dry powder" on Friday - that was probably a bit early. We will retest the october lows, after that probably a bounce, but the market might end lower than that later this year. SP500 at 3900? My gut feeling based on looking at the chart, but I don't know anything.
Same here. I’ve been rebalancing into this downtown over the past week or so. Turned out to be a bit early, but as we know, it’s impossible to perfectly time it. However, it turned out to be much better by waiting to rebalance now instead of immediately rebalancing at the end of 2021 when I had a quite a bit of cash from selling equities at their high during the last few days of the year.

I agree with you that the S&P will retest its early October 2021 low. How much lower it goes from there, who knows. The Nasdaq is already down 15% from its high with the S&P down about 9%. I’m thinking that the Nasdaq will hit 20% down and hopefully bounce from there. Nasdaq’s 20% down gets us to around the S&P’s October low.

Whatever happens, I think it’s going to be an extremely choppy first six months of the year.
Robot Monster
Posts: 4215
Joined: Sun May 05, 2019 11:23 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

What I wish for is to care about only that which is under my control, and have an emotionally detached attitude to the rest.

What's under my control: my allocation.
What's not under my control: whatever happens to stocks/bonds/cash etc.

At least, this is the lesson I learned from the little I know about stoic philosophy.
am
Posts: 4233
Joined: Sun Sep 30, 2007 9:55 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by am »

Do the large institutional managers who trade on every ounce of news and worry control the markets and ultimately push the feds hand?
nigel_ht
Posts: 4742
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:14 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nigel_ht »

Is a lost decade better or worse for the accumulator?

Say at age 25 you start saving $20K a year in 2010 using 3 fund.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... tion3_1=20

Ending balance is $437,695.

Let’s say we repeat the last decade…retirees are super happy but some folks believe that accumulators will be super sad.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... tion3_1=20

But they end with 1.6M.

Of course we are now in super bubble territory and we should follow with the lost decade.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... tion3_1=20

At age 45 they have 2.6M.

Let’s swap and do 2000 lost decade followed by 2010.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... tion3_1=20

$2.8M

Not really that huge a difference.

This is a very unlikely scenario as I don’t think we will get the same results as last decade but I don’t think a lost decade helps as much as some would hope. It’s just a decade where your current portfolio stagnates and if you are in your mid 30s that’s likely going to hurt about as much as you gain if you’ve been saving $20K a year for the last 10 years.

If you are starting today yeah.
User avatar
JoMoney
Posts: 16260
Joined: Tue Jul 23, 2013 5:31 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by JoMoney »

am wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 9:22 am Do the large institutional managers who trade on every ounce of news and worry control the markets and ultimately push the feds hand?
I don't believe they do. I still believe the Fed manages (or attempts to) do what they feel is necessary to keep the U.S. Dollar a viable currency.
Sometimes that involves catering to "institutional" forces that have put themselves into a pickle that threatens the entire system.
Sometimes not putting pressure on them is the bigger threat to the dollar.
The Fed's mandate should be to stabilize prices while maximizing employment. Controlling the money supply is pretty much their only tool for that.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
BogleCPA
Posts: 146
Joined: Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:27 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by BogleCPA »

Independent George wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:37 am
BogleCPA wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:16 pm If I put in a "buy" order in a Vanguard taxable account right now (45 minutes before market closes), will I be buying in at this moment's exact price or does it default to today's market close price? I want to make sure I get a purchase in based on today's dip, just in case good news comes out over the weekend that would make Monday's opening shoot back up.

Most of my investing career I've just been a DCA investor with auto-401K contributions every two weeks and Roth IRA max outs on 1/1 of every year. I'm new to this whole taxable investing lifestyle and buying the dips, but I don't want to miss out on this action today!

Thanks in advance.
Why would you not just repeat the process with your taxable account, and buy a pre-determined amount every two weeks? It doesn't matter whether it's in a taxable or a retirement account - trying to buy the dips is not likely something you can do consistently. Tax loss harvesting is something different, but that always nets to zero.
Taxable investing is kind of my “plug” at the end of each month. Now that we are paying for child care, some months I have money left over to invest in taxable after maxing all our tax-advantaged space, and other months I don’t.

I didn’t make a big purchase yesterday, but I like to at least put a couple hundred bucks into taxable during weeks where the market is way down. Behaviorally I believe it’s good practice to buy the dips in the accounts where you can make purchases on your own timeline. If a dip doesn’t give someone an itch to buy, their asset allocation may not be appropriate (in my opinion).

I’m not a market timer in any way, but having $200 less in cash and $200 more in VTSAX doesn’t make a material difference in my asset allocation or risk exposure. And it gives us reassurance that we are viewing the dips in the proper manner - buying opportunities, rather than reason for concern or panic.
an_asker
Posts: 4903
Joined: Thu Jun 27, 2013 2:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by an_asker »

Da5id wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:23 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:47 pm [...]
I wish you younger folk would stop posting these comments celebrating the downturns. Some of us are older and are no longer in the early accumulation phase. The downturns are painful to us because we may not live long enough to see the full recovery.
While this is fair, if one doesn't want to see people commenting lightheartedly or pragmatically on plummeting stocks this may be the wrong thread to follow.
How is this fair? Isn't the whole purpose of an asset allocation such that one can stomach the downturns without having to take an antacid? If a ten percent drop is painful, maybe you need to revisit that asset allocation!

I am assuming that UpperNwGuy was making a lighthearted comment.
an_asker
Posts: 4903
Joined: Thu Jun 27, 2013 2:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by an_asker »

Fortitude wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:20 pm
BogleCPA wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:16 pm If I put in a "buy" order in a Vanguard taxable account right now (45 minutes before market closes), will I be buying in at this moment's exact price or does it default to today's market close price? I want to make sure I get a purchase in based on today's dip, just in case good news comes out over the weekend that would make Monday's opening shoot back up.

Most of my investing career I've just been a DCA investor with auto-401K contributions every two weeks and Roth IRA max outs on 1/1 of every year. I'm new to this whole taxable investing lifestyle and buying the dips, but I don't want to miss out on this action today!

Thanks in advance.
It sounds like it’s a Vanguard mutual fund you’re going to invest in. If that’s the case, you’ll get today’s closing price as long as the order is placed before 4:00 PM.
BogleCPA is really confusing here. There is no intraday "this moment's exact price" for mutual funds; on the other hand, if it is an ETF, a market order would ensure you are getting "this moment's exact price" regardless of which brokerage you are on (and if you aren't getting it, you might want to consider switching to a different brokerage)!
intendi
Posts: 205
Joined: Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:16 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by intendi »

My lump sum timing recently enabled me to have some wonderful opportunities to harvest losses. Pretty sure I'll have invested in all of the various TLH partners for VTI with a round trip planned in early February.

I have to believe that all these folks selling are looking for the right time to jump back in rather than searching for the best high yield savings account.
User avatar
quantAndHold
Posts: 10141
Joined: Thu Sep 17, 2015 10:39 pm
Location: West Coast

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by quantAndHold »

newyorker wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:13 am What is the cause of market dropping anyways?
Nobody knows. It’s human nature to observe random activity and make up a meaning for it.
Elysium
Posts: 4120
Joined: Mon Apr 02, 2007 6:22 pm

Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by Elysium »

HomerJ wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:03 pm
Elysium wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:11 pm
ChinchillaWhiplash wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:06 pm
Elysium wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:49 pm What bad days? we haven't even reached correction territory on S&P 500 yet, wait until it crosses 200 day average on the down then the real bad days will begin. Your portfolio should be designed with this in mind, so that when these eventual drawdowns happen we know what we're expected to do. Consider the past 10-12 years a gift and especially the last 3 years as bonus on top. Market isn't expected to average 16% per annum as it did since 2012. We are going to give back some of it and earn the averages over long periods. Market timing is impossible, otherwise we could all just sell at the top and buy back at the bottom.
It has broke the 200 day moving average.
:sharebeer okay then hang on to the seat of your pants.

Jeremy Grantham thinks $35 trillion of value will be wiped off in the coming bursting of "superbubble" where 50% of S&P 500 will be lost.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... -50-2022-1
You've been here too long to quote Jeremy Grantham. You should be a little bit embarrassed. :?
No, why should I? It's a bit more complicated than that. While his record of making forecasts has been horribly wrong, the problem really lies in a fundamental disagreement over how Fed should manage monitory policy that leads to asset bubbles (in his and others opinion with similar views). I've been hearing about this since the time of Greenspan and how he managed money policy to first feed the Tech bubble, then inflate out of it with low rates to create housing bubble, after which another fed chair Bernanke indulged in QE to get the way out of GFC, and finally Powell who kept rates low and even was browbeated by an administration to change direction on rising rates, and the way Powell approached Covid-19 stimulus which many think went excess, and now we have talks of another government stimulus that all but is stalled.

So the question really is how much stimulus is enough stimulus, so that it doesn't break the financial markets but at the same time does not create asset pricing bubbles. For instance, most people were concerned about US stock valuations in 2018 and 2019 before Covid-19, then came March 20 followed by a huge Fed stimulus and extreme low rates, combined with Govt stimulus and free checks issued by Treasury has created an effect that resulted in S&P 500 returns over 26% annualized 2019-2021. This is coming after there were concerns of valuations at end of 2018. Naturally, permabears like Grantham who disagrees with Fed policy as explained about would think they are right that these are "super bubbles" that will get deflated. But, the Fed and Govt keep having answers to that, which is where folks like Grantham who have no power level to pull get it wrong, all they can do is bark from the sidelines.

Now, compare this to European and Asian central bank policies to address similar issues, as the whole world was affected by GFC and Covid-19 induced financial crises. They have opted not to stimulate as much as we did in the US, and as a result their assets did not increase so much in value. That's one way to look at it, the other is people say Tech & Innovation was the key, there is truth to both, we simply do not know which one. Ask ourselves honestly without the "excess" stimulus from Fed and Govt would we be better off than Europe and Asia.

So, we should be able to take a nuanced approach and understand all sides of an issue. We don't know what was the right approach to stimulate the economy out of a financial crisis, understanding these are all qualified people doing their best, sometimes their error on one side vs other, and while we should be happy they aren't making the mistakes of Great Depression, the question still remain did they overdo it, and if so the excess will take sometime to get wiped off, and that's okay too.
am
Posts: 4233
Joined: Sun Sep 30, 2007 9:55 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by am »

quantAndHold wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:04 am
newyorker wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:13 am What is the cause of market dropping anyways?
Nobody knows. It’s human nature to observe random activity and make up a meaning for it.
There is no alternative to stocks will sink in soon, once all the large institutional managers stop selling. Rates are still extremely low even after proposed hikes. Bonds have a negative expected return.

I guess the worry is that with inflation raging, more hikes will be needed than promised. Even than, the rates will still be extremely low. I think this will sink in eventually and we’ll get back on track. If inflation stops rising, than we will get A big bull run.
User avatar
Doom&Gloom
Posts: 5417
Joined: Thu May 08, 2014 3:36 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom »

newyorker wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:13 am What is the cause of market dropping anyways?
Pesky gremlins.
Just keep your head down and keep digging.
User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 27850
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by abuss368 »

I am filling up my spaceship this week. 🚀. Sure it will be all stock to get back to target allocations. I keep telling myself it is cheaper and I will get more shares.

Stay the course.
Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
Ed 2
Posts: 2692
Joined: Sat May 15, 2010 9:34 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Ed 2 »

abuss368 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:23 am I am filling up my spaceship this week. 🚀. Sure it will be all stock to get back to target allocations. I keep telling myself it is cheaper and I will get more shares.

Stay the course.
Tony
Don’t forget to fill your spaceship with REIT and International . Just switch on turbocharger . It’s a small button on your dashboard on the steering wheel too.
Last edited by Ed 2 on Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel
User avatar
FlatSix
Posts: 331
Joined: Thu Jan 16, 2020 8:37 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by FlatSix »

Was able to execute a nice little tax loss harvest yesterday, along with our ibonds for the year. Quarterly bonus and monthly paycheck drop in about a week. Looking forward to loading up then. Stay the course, my friends.
Robot Monster
Posts: 4215
Joined: Sun May 05, 2019 11:23 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

abuss368 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:23 am I am filling up my spaceship this week. 🚀. Sure it will be all stock to get back to target allocations. I keep telling myself it is cheaper and I will get more shares.

Stay the course.
Tony
I think you should hold off a little while and wait for the market to fall some more before buying, and, more importantly, you shouldn't do what I just said. Stay the course, indeed.
User avatar
Corsair
Posts: 584
Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:57 am
Location: USA

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Corsair »

pasadena wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:39 am
9-5 Suited wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:33 am
nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:21 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 4:22 am
UpperNwGuy wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:47 pm

I wish you younger folk would stop posting these comments celebrating the downturns. Some of us are older and are no longer in the early accumulation phase. The downturns are painful to us because we may not live long enough to see the full recovery.
The market has returned 15% a year for a decade, plus you guys had the greatest bond bull market in history. You older folks should be just fine. Us younger folks need some good.accumulation years. A downturn as provides us some future returns.
Eh…there’s a huge difference between wanting some buying opportunities and wishing for a full on depression.

What you want is the market returning 15% for another decade and be able to hit your numbers early and shift to a conservative AA.

If your income isn’t high enough to benefit from this the odds are any depression will impact young folks a lot more than older bogleheads with paid off houses and close to SS income.
Wishing for a full on depression is selfish, immature, and likely a display of lack of empathy and understanding of what actually happens to human beings in such a condition. The stories of the Great Depression are devastating and millions suffered terrible hardships that stayed with them forever. Wishing for that so that you can cash in on better personal equity returns is embarrassing.
+1,000
Some, like Jeff Snider & Emil Kalinowski (great podcast), argue we've been in a silent depression since 2008. For the middle class and poor I think this is very true, the wealth of the top 1% has gone up like never before thanks to Fed (and global central bank policies). What the Fed has been doing since 2008 has not worked except for pushing up asset (stock and house) prices, making the rich get richer.

Image
Last edited by Corsair on Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.
Ed 2
Posts: 2692
Joined: Sat May 15, 2010 9:34 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Ed 2 »

Robot Monster wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:30 am
abuss368 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:23 am I am filling up my spaceship this week. 🚀. Sure it will be all stock to get back to target allocations. I keep telling myself it is cheaper and I will get more shares.

Stay the course.
Tony
I think you should hold off a little while and wait for the market to fall some more before buying, and, more importantly, you shouldn't do what I just said. Stay the course, indeed.
He knows what he does. This is not our first tango.
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel
tvubpwcisla
Posts: 1167
Joined: Sat Nov 09, 2019 9:09 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by tvubpwcisla »

I was looking at a 20 year monthly chart of the S&P 500 and the MACD is at the highest level it has ever been and the fast line is still above the slow. I am guessing it will cross over at some point in the next couple months. Boy does it look like there is a lot of room to the downside; however, I am hopeful for the best and understand at the end of the day, a chart means nothing. Just looks like there could be a lot more selling.
Robot Monster
Posts: 4215
Joined: Sun May 05, 2019 11:23 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

Ed 2 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:32 am
Robot Monster wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:30 am
abuss368 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:23 am I am filling up my spaceship this week. 🚀. Sure it will be all stock to get back to target allocations. I keep telling myself it is cheaper and I will get more shares.

Stay the course.
Tony
I think you should hold off a little while and wait for the market to fall some more before buying, and, more importantly, you shouldn't do what I just said. Stay the course, indeed.
He knows what he does. This is not our first tango.
The things we write on here are of benefit to all the people reading it, including the many lurkers we have, some who might be newbies, who might be struggling with staying the course.
Ed 2
Posts: 2692
Joined: Sat May 15, 2010 9:34 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Ed 2 »

Robot Monster wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:41 am
Ed 2 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:32 am
Robot Monster wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:30 am
abuss368 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:23 am I am filling up my spaceship this week. 🚀. Sure it will be all stock to get back to target allocations. I keep telling myself it is cheaper and I will get more shares.

Stay the course.
Tony
I think you should hold off a little while and wait for the market to fall some more before buying, and, more importantly, you shouldn't do what I just said. Stay the course, indeed.
He knows what he does. This is not our first tango.
The things we write on here are of benefit to all the people reading it, including the many lurkers we have, some who might be newbies, who might be struggling with staying the course.
+1
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel
User avatar
Beensabu
Posts: 5657
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2016 3:22 pm

Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by Beensabu »

HomerJ wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:56 pm
Beensabu wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:18 pm In Grantham's defense, and he's put it forth in his own defense, nobody could have seen this level of "deranged monetary activism"!!! (shake both fists in the air when you say it -- it's fun) coming.
Grantham's defense that he hasn't been able to predict the future for 12+ years is that something unexpected happened in the future?

He's been predicting a HUGE crash every year for 12+ years. No one should listen to him anymore.

The fact that financial media still interviews him and quotes him tells you everything you need to know about financial media. It's pretty much all worthless.
Lol. They called him a "legendary investor" and "market historian". I call him a "super fun read". He really has a way with words.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 27850
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by abuss368 »

Ed 2 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:26 am
abuss368 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:23 am I am filling up my spaceship this week. 🚀. Sure it will be all stock to get back to target allocations. I keep telling myself it is cheaper and I will get more shares.

Stay the course.
Tony
Don’t forget to fill your spaceship with REIT and International . Just switch on turbocharger . It’s a small button on your dashboard on the steering wheel too.
Noted. I will probably do that!😂
Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
lostdog
Posts: 5368
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 1:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

The fear on this thread is real....wow.

Re-evaluate your asset allocation if needed.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
Grogs
Posts: 1174
Joined: Tue Mar 24, 2015 4:55 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Grogs »

Independent George wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:37 am
BogleCPA wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:16 pm If I put in a "buy" order in a Vanguard taxable account right now (45 minutes before market closes), will I be buying in at this moment's exact price or does it default to today's market close price? I want to make sure I get a purchase in based on today's dip, just in case good news comes out over the weekend that would make Monday's opening shoot back up.

Most of my investing career I've just been a DCA investor with auto-401K contributions every two weeks and Roth IRA max outs on 1/1 of every year. I'm new to this whole taxable investing lifestyle and buying the dips, but I don't want to miss out on this action today!

Thanks in advance.
Why would you not just repeat the process with your taxable account, and buy a pre-determined amount every two weeks? It doesn't matter whether it's in a taxable or a retirement account - trying to buy the dips is not likely something you can do consistently. Tax loss harvesting is something different, but that always nets to zero.
I can't speak for this poster, but my taxable is whatever is left over at the end of the month after CCs and utilities are paid. Some months I may owe less than $1000 on credit cards and I can make a big taxable purchase. Other months I may owe many thousands and not have anything left over for taxable. This makes it very difficult to set up an auto-contribution.

In the past, this caused me a lot of problems like those expressed above because I would rush to buy a dip (only to see the market fall further) or wait for a dip (which never materialized). I've learned that over the course of many months things generally average out. Any extra money I made by buying a dip was probably offset by incorrectly guessing another time. I now try to do my taxable on about the same day every month, even though I have to do it manually. Since I buy mutual funds, I also try to put in my order outside of trading hours. This minimizes the impact of emotions going into the decision. The big exception is, as you note, tax loss harvesting. Then I want to put in the order as late in the day as possible to make sure I sell all my lots with losses.
nigel_ht
Posts: 4742
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:14 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nigel_ht »

lostdog wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:49 am The fear on this thread is real....wow.

Re-evaluate your asset allocation if needed.
Yay! Means we haven’t hit irrational exuberance yet!
ivgrivchuck
Posts: 1672
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2020 6:20 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ivgrivchuck »

lostdog wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:49 am The fear on this thread is real....wow.

Re-evaluate your asset allocation if needed.
I am hoping for a market crash.

As an accumulator in my late 30s, that would mean that I could finally buy fairly priced stocks.

I am not hoping for a crash that results in a deep recession. That would benefit nobody...
25% VTI | 25% VXUS | 12.5% AVUV | 10% AVDV | 2.5% VWO | 25% BND/SCHR/SCHP
User avatar
peskypesky
Posts: 1023
Joined: Fri Mar 08, 2013 7:56 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

Corsair wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:31 am Some, like Jeff Snider & Emil Kalinowski (great podcast), argue we've been in a silent depression since 2008. For the middle class and poor I think this is very true, the wealth of the top 1% has gone up like never before thanks to Fed (and global central bank policies). What the Fed has been doing since 2008 has not worked except for pushing up asset (stock and house) prices, making the rich get richer.

Image
This might explain why a majority of Americans don't have $1000 on hand in case of an emergancy.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/19/56perce ... vings.html
AlphaLess
Posts: 3409
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 11:38 pm
Location: Kentucky

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess »

canadianbacon wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 9:09 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 4:22 am The market has returned 15% a year for a decade, plus you guys had the greatest bond bull market in history. You older folks should be just fine. Us younger folks need some good.accumulation years. A downturn as provides us some future returns.
A lot of the younger folks in tech are getting good accumulation years through inflated comp packages. Doesn't matter how you get there as long as you get there.

Also, another reminder that accumulators often don't get to continue accumulating during serious economic downturns. I expect that mentality on Reddit, not here :).

(I was down 4% overall this week -- worst week since March 2020)
May I ask why you think that accumulators don't get to continue accumulating during serious economic downturns?
And also, what would you call serious economic downturn?
I don't carry a signature because people are easily offended.
AlphaLess
Posts: 3409
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 11:38 pm
Location: Kentucky

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess »

peskypesky wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:11 am
Corsair wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:31 am Some, like Jeff Snider & Emil Kalinowski (great podcast), argue we've been in a silent depression since 2008. For the middle class and poor I think this is very true, the wealth of the top 1% has gone up like never before thanks to Fed (and global central bank policies). What the Fed has been doing since 2008 has not worked except for pushing up asset (stock and house) prices, making the rich get richer.

... image removed ...
This might explain why a majority of Americans don't have $1000 on hand in case of an emergancy.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/19/56perce ... vings.html
Along those lines, pretty thorough discussion on wealth.

https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/nev ... 01-percent
I don't carry a signature because people are easily offended.
User avatar
canadianbacon
Posts: 677
Joined: Sun Nov 10, 2019 9:04 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by canadianbacon »

AlphaLess wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:15 am
canadianbacon wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 9:09 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 4:22 am The market has returned 15% a year for a decade, plus you guys had the greatest bond bull market in history. You older folks should be just fine. Us younger folks need some good.accumulation years. A downturn as provides us some future returns.
A lot of the younger folks in tech are getting good accumulation years through inflated comp packages. Doesn't matter how you get there as long as you get there.

Also, another reminder that accumulators often don't get to continue accumulating during serious economic downturns. I expect that mentality on Reddit, not here :).

(I was down 4% overall this week -- worst week since March 2020)
May I ask why you think that accumulators don't get to continue accumulating during serious economic downturns?
And also, what would you call serious economic downturn?
Many lose their jobs.
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
User avatar
peskypesky
Posts: 1023
Joined: Fri Mar 08, 2013 7:56 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

AlphaLess wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:20 am
Along those lines, pretty thorough discussion on wealth.

https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/nev ... 01-percent
Thank you!
AlphaLess
Posts: 3409
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 11:38 pm
Location: Kentucky

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess »

canadianbacon wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:23 am
AlphaLess wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:15 am
canadianbacon wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 9:09 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 4:22 am The market has returned 15% a year for a decade, plus you guys had the greatest bond bull market in history. You older folks should be just fine. Us younger folks need some good.accumulation years. A downturn as provides us some future returns.
A lot of the younger folks in tech are getting good accumulation years through inflated comp packages. Doesn't matter how you get there as long as you get there.

Also, another reminder that accumulators often don't get to continue accumulating during serious economic downturns. I expect that mentality on Reddit, not here :).

(I was down 4% overall this week -- worst week since March 2020)
May I ask why you think that accumulators don't get to continue accumulating during serious economic downturns?
And also, what would you call serious economic downturn?
Many lose their jobs.
Ok, thank you for the answer.

I would argue not, but I would have to get into a type of discussion that might be considered along "social, etc" theme.

Careful analysis of unemployment, not just economy-wide, but also by demographics, will probably demonstrate that accumulators don't lose their jobs, on average.

Demographic stratification will be along education, industry, and income quantiles.
I don't carry a signature because people are easily offended.
User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 27850
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by abuss368 »

Bogleheads -

We must not forget the importance of asset allocation in portfolio construction. Asset allocation may change during our investment journey as life events happen.

Best.
Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 27850
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by abuss368 »

sf_tech_saver wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:04 pm I sense some buying opportunities for the next year or two as the interest rate changes shake out.

While you can't time the market you can certainly try to be esp thrifty on your savings rate when the market is under its 200++ day averages to the downside. I plan on tightening the belt as much as possible as long as we are headed mostly down!

Buying consistently and maximally through the corrections is where we really add value to the market as investors. Let's go....
Do you think Fundrise will ride this out in terms of not adjusting any NAV of the real estate down? Assuming it is a short term pullback.

Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 14153
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky »

newyorker wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:48 am This shall pass too
I could make the same comment about kidney stones .......
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
nigel_ht
Posts: 4742
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:14 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nigel_ht »

ivgrivchuck wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:05 am
lostdog wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:49 am The fear on this thread is real....wow.

Re-evaluate your asset allocation if needed.
I am hoping for a market crash.

As an accumulator in my late 30s, that would mean that I could finally buy fairly priced stocks.

I am not hoping for a crash that results in a deep recession. That would benefit nobody...
What’s your current portfolio? How long of a “buying opportunity” do you want?

If you are in your late 30s without a half million saved what makes you think your rate of savings in the next decade is really going to be significantly higher than your last decade?

If you are in your late 30s with $500K+ why do you want 10 years of 0% real growth? So the $300K or so you invest over the next decade is “discounted”?
User avatar
TheTimeLord
Posts: 12130
Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:05 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

Stinky wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:44 am
newyorker wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:48 am This shall pass too
I could make the same comment about kidney stones .......
In the spirit of the current market I broke down and bought a little MGM yesterday.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
newyorker
Posts: 1635
Joined: Sun May 17, 2020 7:59 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by newyorker »

What is the fundamentals of market dropping?

There aint no new pandemic
There aint no new economic war with china

I just hear rate hikes... thats about it.
bling
Posts: 1457
Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2012 11:49 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bling »

newyorker wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:48 am What is the fundamentals of market dropping?

There aint no new pandemic
There aint no new economic war with china

I just hear rate hikes... thats about it.
omicron doesn't count? that changed a lot of predictions.

and there's only so much you can buy in the WFH age. you don't need more than one subscription (NFLX), and you don't need more than one bike (PTON), as two examples where there's literally no growth left.
tvubpwcisla
Posts: 1167
Joined: Sat Nov 09, 2019 9:09 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by tvubpwcisla »

TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:47 am
Stinky wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:44 am
newyorker wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:48 am This shall pass too
I could make the same comment about kidney stones .......
In the spirit of the current market I broke down and bought a little MGM yesterday.
MGM, sounds fitting. MGM stands for Might as well Gamble some More!

:sharebeer
BogleCPA
Posts: 146
Joined: Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:27 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by BogleCPA »

an_asker wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 9:54 am
Fortitude wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:20 pm
BogleCPA wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:16 pm If I put in a "buy" order in a Vanguard taxable account right now (45 minutes before market closes), will I be buying in at this moment's exact price or does it default to today's market close price? I want to make sure I get a purchase in based on today's dip, just in case good news comes out over the weekend that would make Monday's opening shoot back up.

Most of my investing career I've just been a DCA investor with auto-401K contributions every two weeks and Roth IRA max outs on 1/1 of every year. I'm new to this whole taxable investing lifestyle and buying the dips, but I don't want to miss out on this action today!

Thanks in advance.
It sounds like it’s a Vanguard mutual fund you’re going to invest in. If that’s the case, you’ll get today’s closing price as long as the order is placed before 4:00 PM.
BogleCPA is really confusing here. There is no intraday "this moment's exact price" for mutual funds; on the other hand, if it is an ETF, a market order would ensure you are getting "this moment's exact price" regardless of which brokerage you are on (and if you aren't getting it, you might want to consider switching to a different brokerage)!
Yeah I was confused. That’s why I asked the question, because I didn’t know the answer. I’m new to taxable investing and I never knew that distinction between mutual funds and ETFs. I placed my order for VTSAX at around 3:50 yesterday and got the Friday closing price in that mutual fund.
User avatar
Doom&Gloom
Posts: 5417
Joined: Thu May 08, 2014 3:36 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom »

I am eagerly awaiting a flurry of updates from posters who have been waiting for a pull back to get into the market or get back into the market with the cash they have been sitting on because the market was too high.

Prediction: There won't be more than a few.
User avatar
Yesterdaysnews
Posts: 964
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2014 1:25 pm
Location: Sugar Land, TX

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Yesterdaysnews »

All this talk about wanting a crash to buy "cheap" - what were you doing in March 2020? Buying with both fists or running for the exits? We already had a great sale on stocks at that time but it is hard to buy when everyone is saying the world is ending....
User avatar
peskypesky
Posts: 1023
Joined: Fri Mar 08, 2013 7:56 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

Doom&Gloom wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:59 am I am eagerly awaiting a flurry of updates from posters who have been waiting for a pull back to get into the market or get back into the market with the cash they have been sitting on because the market was too high.

Prediction: There won't be more than a few.
I'll be posting! But I think it's way too early to get back into the market. The Fed hasn't even really done anything yet.
Locked