peskypesky wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 6:25 pm
I remember someone saying a day or so that everything is priced into the market. Lol.
Guess no one told the market.
New information came out.
It's a simple concept. If you've heard the Fed is going to raise rates, then it's already priced in because everyone has already heard it.
If the Fed says today that they are going to raise rates twice as fast as everyone thought, that's new information.
If Peloton states today it is losing so much money they are going to stop even making bikes, that's new information.
If Netflix releases earnings report today, and they only made half as much as everyone thought they would, that's new information.
Last edited by HomerJ on Thu Jan 20, 2022 6:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Yes, 100% vxus threads will be starting soon if sell off continues. Foreign corporations get US exposure they will say.
GLD is doing better.
My QQQ hit its 200 day moving average at close. I'll give it a day or two to rebound before selling off that position. This year is ugly.
Dangerous... Everyone else who is faithfully following the 200 day moving average rule instead of waiting a day or two will sell, and probably move it downwards.
The trick is to sell BEFORE it hits 200 day moving average... Oh wait, but everyone else knows that too...
Maybe that is what is causing the drop!
The old Princess Bride Battle of Wits!
(that scene still cracks me up and is worth a YouTube search for those who have not seen the film)
LOL!!
Exactly!! Edit: I mean, inconceivable!
Last edited by HomerJ on Thu Jan 20, 2022 6:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
HomerJ wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 6:21 pm
Dangerous... Everyone else who is faithfully following the 200 day moving average rule instead of waiting a day or two will sell, and probably move it downwards.
The trick is to sell BEFORE it hits 200 day moving average... Oh wait, but everyone else knows that too...
Maybe that is what is causing the drop!
Yet most market drops are a multi day process.
So players are still willing to play the game as opposed to pricing everything in at T=0 like game theory might indicate.
Your post did give me a good chuckle though. Probably makes sense for traders to have their own system not use one everyone knows about.
HomerJ wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 6:29 pm
It's a simple concept. If you've heard the Fed is going to raise rates, then it's already priced in because everyone has already heard it.
There's actually no proof that it's priced in. And there's no proof that everyone actually acts on the information.
I'm a perfect example. I knew that the market was very likely going to sink in 2022 because of the Fed and inflation. But I did not act to sell all my stocks. And how many people out there with money in the stock market don't act on information? I would guess it's plenty. Especially a lot of people who have 401ks, but don't know much at all about stocks.'
And what about all the Bogelheads, who just hold, no matter what the new information is?
We’re barely down to where things were in Oct, 4 months ago.
Gotta love the over reactions here.
It's more like a papercut than a bloodbath.
Markets go up and markets go down. This is all normal stuff.
Yep, in couple of days tax loss harvesting questions and “ we all going to die “ following , then “ is this recovering or dead cat bounce”?, then “ I should buy that deep , is it too late to get in?”....
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel
abuss368 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 7:05 pm
Bought last week and will be buying again next week. My spaceship needs to fill up with more shares in case anyone wants to sell.
abuss368 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 7:05 pm
Bought last week and will be buying again next week. My spaceship needs to fill up with more shares in case anyone wants to sell.
Best.
Tony
This is the way to maximise your returns . Buy when it’s fear and doubt. But I admit I think we due to significant correction since so much leverage on the market and dumb money.
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel
abuss368 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 7:05 pm
Bought last week and will be buying again next week. My spaceship needs to fill up with more shares in case anyone wants to sell.
Best.
Tony
Are you doing a 3-funder these days?
Yes. My truck had dual exhaust and I upgrade to a rocket ship with three boasters!
Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
HomerJ wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 6:29 pm
It's a simple concept. If you've heard the Fed is going to raise rates, then it's already priced in because everyone has already heard it.
There's actually no proof that it's priced in. And there's no proof that everyone actually acts on the information.
I'm a perfect example. I knew that the market was very likely going to sink in 2022 because of the Fed and inflation. But I did not act to sell all my stocks. And how many people out there with money in the stock market don't act on information? I would guess it's plenty. Especially a lot of people who have 401ks, but don't know much at all about stocks.'
And what about all the Bogelheads, who just hold, no matter what the new information is?
You didn't "know". You had some vague suspicion.
Now, in hindsight, it seems like you were prescient.
But, consider all the other times you had the same suspicion in the last decade that turned out to be wrong in hindsight.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
HomerJ wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 6:29 pm
It's a simple concept. If you've heard the Fed is going to raise rates, then it's already priced in because everyone has already heard it.
There's actually no proof that it's priced in. And there's no proof that everyone actually acts on the information.
I'm a perfect example. I knew that the market was very likely going to sink in 2022 because of the Fed and inflation. But I did not act to sell all my stocks. And how many people out there with money in the stock market don't act on information? I would guess it's plenty. Especially a lot of people who have 401ks, but don't know much at all about stocks.'
And what about all the Bogelheads, who just hold, no matter what the new information is?
Are you trying to claim success that is easily repeated due to the last two weeks? Just curious. This thread isn’t really for facts, just a spot to toss observations that are no better (likely worse) than a coin flip.
Just when I thought I’d have to check my stock holdings for rebalancing, and we see a small blip. Good, I can ignore it for a few more months. Unless this thread stays up top for a couple months, then maybe need to swing the other way and moves some bonds back to VTSAX.
Futures are in meltdown, -0.75% and dropping... this is probably the big shakeout, I know it will all be good in the end but the next few months probably rough sailing!
And Jim Cramer is saying this is a bottom, in that case, it's probably NOT
stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 8:00 pm
... this is probably the big shakeout ...
Oh, people already forgot March 2020! Far bigger shakeout.
We are still within single digit percent from all-time highs for S&P500 and VTI. The March 2020 drop nearly went to bear territory (or may be it did go into bear territory, even I forgot!)
(AGE minus 23%) Bonds | 5% REITs | Balance 80% US (75/25 TSM/SCV) + 20% International (80/20 Developed/Emerging)
HomerJ wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 6:29 pm
It's a simple concept. If you've heard the Fed is going to raise rates, then it's already priced in because everyone has already heard it.
There's actually no proof that it's priced in. And there's no proof that everyone actually acts on the information.
I'm a perfect example. I knew that the market was very likely going to sink in 2022 because of the Fed and inflation. But I did not act to sell all my stocks. And how many people out there with money in the stock market don't act on information? I would guess it's plenty. Especially a lot of people who have 401ks, but don't know much at all about stocks.'
And what about all the Bogelheads, who just hold, no matter what the new information is?
Well the price is set by people who do act on the information.
The point is that if YOU or ME (worthless peons) hear some news about the economy or a company, all the big dogs who DO trade on the news have already heard it, and done the trades.
Look, if you just want to think it's all random, that's fine too... The point is not to try trading day-to-day on news YOU or I hear.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
willthrill81 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 8:35 pm
MA!! Time to head for the hills!! If this keeps up, stocks might go into a full blown -10% correction!!! Is the bunker fully stocked?
willthrill81 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 8:35 pm
MA!! Time to head for the hills!! If this keeps up, stocks might go into a full blown -10% correction!!! Is the bunker fully stocked?
Better to get out at -10% than -90%.
Maybe the market will bottom at -90%. Maybe this is a head fake and we've already seen the worst of the decline.
willthrill81 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 8:35 pm
MA!! Time to head for the hills!! If this keeps up, stocks might go into a full blown -10% correction!!! Is the bunker fully stocked?
Better to get out at -10% than -90%.
Maybe the market will bottom at -90%. Maybe this is a head fake and we've already seen the worst of the decline.
Will stocks continue to drop? Will bonds persist in their valiant climb? Will Will will the will to post on bogleheads.org?
Tune in to tomorrow's episode: Stocks and bonds: What are they doing? here on the Bogleheads channel.
stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 8:00 pm
Futures are in meltdown, -0.75% and dropping... this is probably the big shakeout, I know it will all be good in the end but the next few months probably rough sailing!
And Jim Cramer is saying this is a bottom, in that case, it's probably NOT
I don't think that word means what you think it means.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
willthrill81 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 8:35 pm
MA!! Time to head for the hills!! If this keeps up, stocks might go into a full blown -10% correction!!! Is the bunker fully stocked?
Better to get out at -10% than -90%.
Maybe the market will bottom at -90%. Maybe this is a head fake and we've already seen the worst of the decline.
Why may be. Market will bottom out at -90%.. I just don't know 90% of what though
(AGE minus 23%) Bonds | 5% REITs | Balance 80% US (75/25 TSM/SCV) + 20% International (80/20 Developed/Emerging)
willthrill81 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 8:35 pm
MA!! Time to head for the hills!! If this keeps up, stocks might go into a full blown -10% correction!!! Is the bunker fully stocked?
Better to get out at -10% than -90%.
Jeremy is that you?
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. |
Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 8:00 pm
... this is probably the big shakeout ...
Oh, people already forgot March 2020! Far bigger shakeout.
We are still within single digit percent from all-time highs for S&P500 and VTI. The March 2020 drop nearly went to bear territory (or may be it did go into bear territory, even I forgot!)
TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 7:57 pm
I really enjoy reading people's thought processes in this thread.
I don't have a thought process yet. I guess that's why I have neither bought nor sold so far in 2022.
It is often easier seeing flaws in other people's logic than your own, so for me there is a benefit of observing other peoples thinking and then applying my observations to my own.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. |
Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 8:00 pm
... this is probably the big shakeout ...
Oh, people already forgot March 2020! Far bigger shakeout.
We are still within single digit percent from all-time highs for S&P500 and VTI. The March 2020 drop nearly went to bear territory (or may be it did go into bear territory, even I forgot!)
March 2020 was about a 35% drop in S&P500
Now that is where I would use words/phrases like bloodbath, big shakeout, meltdown, carnage, sky is falling, capitalism is doomed or something equally dramatic.
Last edited by fetch5482 on Thu Jan 20, 2022 9:50 pm, edited 2 times in total.
(AGE minus 23%) Bonds | 5% REITs | Balance 80% US (75/25 TSM/SCV) + 20% International (80/20 Developed/Emerging)
willthrill81 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 8:35 pm
MA!! Time to head for the hills!! If this keeps up, stocks might go into a full blown -10% correction!!! Is the bunker fully stocked?
It’s a bloodbath and a meltdown according to this page of the thread. But hey, pretty soon those CAPE figures will start looking rosier
stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 8:00 pm
Futures are in meltdown, -0.75% and dropping... this is probably the big shakeout, I know it will all be good in the end but the next few months probably rough sailing!
And Jim Cramer is saying this is a bottom, in that case, it's probably NOT
Not even remotely a meltdown. March 2020 has already been mentioned. October 2007 to March 2009: the Dow dropped 54 percent. October 2008: 18% drop in a single week. -0.75 percent? No.
HomerJ wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 8:35 pm
Look, if you just want to think it's all random, that's fine too... The point is not to try trading day-to-day on news YOU or I hear.
I am not a day trader...but, look, if you didn't see all the obvious signs pointing to a stock drop in 2022, especially for tech/growth stocks, I don't know what to tell you.
HomerJ wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 8:35 pm
Look, if you just want to think it's all random, that's fine too... The point is not to try trading day-to-day on news YOU or I hear.
I am not a day trader...but, look, if you didn't see all the obvious signs pointing to a stock drop in 2022, especially for tech/growth stocks, I don't know what to tell you.
Curious when you had this obvious epiphany?
peskypesky wrote: ↑Sun Dec 19, 2021 2:23 pm
Age 55. Retired.
I'm about 80% stocks, 17% crypto, 3% cash.
peskypesky wrote: ↑Fri Dec 31, 2021 9:50 pm5,195.2
I assume you got out of most of your stocks allocation sometime after Dec 31, when you were predicting a gain for 2022?!?
It's always "obvious" after the fact.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
I’m trying to remember what the drop at the end of 2018 was like and whether that was solely because of rates rising or was a combo of the trade war talks.
I think that was around -15%?
On a personal note, for the first time in a long time my bonus is hitting at a good time (tomorrow). Getting some cash next month from selling a rental. Maybe I’ll get very lucky and we’ll be down 20%+ by then. Ukraine invasion may really panic markets.
Last edited by ActiveIndexer on Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
willthrill81 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 8:35 pm
MA!! Time to head for the hills!! If this keeps up, stocks might go into a full blown -10% correction!!! Is the bunker fully stocked?
Well, at least the prices will be correct then!
I don't carry a signature because people are easily offended.
HomerJ wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 8:35 pm
Look, if you just want to think it's all random, that's fine too... The point is not to try trading day-to-day on news YOU or I hear.
I am not a day trader...but, look, if you didn't see all the obvious signs pointing to a stock drop in 2022, especially for tech/growth stocks, I don't know what to tell you.
Corrections and pullbacks happen all the time, and in most years. Not exactly going out on a limb there. The market then bounces back. This time is not different.
HomerJ wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 8:35 pm
Look, if you just want to think it's all random, that's fine too... The point is not to try trading day-to-day on news YOU or I hear.
I am not a day trader...but, look, if you didn't see all the obvious signs pointing to a stock drop in 2022, especially for tech/growth stocks, I don't know what to tell you.
Corrections and pullbacks happen all the time, and in most years. Not exactly going out on a limb there. The market then bounces back. This time is not different.
What if the market doesn’t bounce back for another 10 years? 15 years? It’s happened before.