U.S. stocks in free fall
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
just bought another 10K of MSFT in IRA.
- vanbogle59
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
To be fair, in about the time it takes to cook one, the VTI potato went from 223 to 216.Tamalak wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:18 pm People are saying the market is reacting crazily to a mild and expected intent to raise rates.
But if I sell Joe a potato today for $1, and sell another one to him tomorrow for $0.99, is that really crazy? Newsworthy?
It only has a crazy effect for people who have millions of dollars' worth of potatoes and do a daily check of their theoretical net worth if they sold every single potato that day. Don't say the market is hysterical, rather, perhaps what we are doing with our own resources is hysterical.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Doesn't it seem expensive to you? Can't argue with its moat, though.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Well, you don't wait for the flames to singe you before you head for the exit. IMHO think the fact there was such a run up for months even when everyone knew what was coming is a sign the bull market will continue - this is just a correction and rotation out of growth.peskypesky wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:56 pmOr maybe they just don't like seeing things like the NASDAQ losing a whole year of returns BEFORE the Fed has even started to act.Beensabu wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:48 amYes. Anybody that has been freaking out lately has exceeded their risk tolerance and/or concentrated their equity position.AnalogKid22 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 9:06 am If we decide to take on more risk than we can handle, we need to be prepared for the outcomes like we've seen this month. Using terms like "bloodbath" to refer to very minor (normal) corrections should be a red flag that one's AA might be too aggressive.
- peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Best of luck!! Hope it works out for you. My stock-picking days are behind me. I'm sticking with broad indexes.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
There are still 28 minutes left in the trading day, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say this prediction will not turn out to have been accurate.gas_balloon wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:19 pm Here is my prediction for tomorrow.
Market will start lower until the FOMC meeting. After that it'll reverse direction since I don't think there will be anything of surprise in that meeting. S&P500 will end in positive territory end of day. Emerging markets will end negative.
Disclaimer: I'm very poor at predictions, so remove your blinders, wear your seatbelts & helmets. There may or may not be life vests
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
it's a portion of my 10% for individual stocks, 3 funds are the bulk of my portfolio and I got a chunk in FSKAX last couple days.peskypesky wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:31 pmBest of luck!! Hope it works out for you. My stock-picking days are behind me. I'm sticking with broad indexes.
Last edited by carminered2019 on Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
got it. smart.carminered2019 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:43 pmit's a portion of my 10% for individual stocks, 3 funds are the bulk of my portfolio and I got a chunk in FSKAX last couple days.peskypesky wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:31 pmBest of luck!! Hope it works out for you. My stock-picking days are behind me. I'm sticking with broad indexes.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Today's graph looks like the mirror reflection of Monday and Tuesday's.
- vanbogle59
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
LOLINLAFF wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:32 pmThere are still 28 minutes left in the trading day, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say this prediction will not turn out to have been accurate.gas_balloon wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:19 pm Here is my prediction for tomorrow.
Market will start lower until the FOMC meeting. After that it'll reverse direction since I don't think there will be anything of surprise in that meeting. S&P500 will end in positive territory end of day. Emerging markets will end negative.
Disclaimer: I'm very poor at predictions, so remove your blinders, wear your seatbelts & helmets. There may or may not be life vests
Only now am I willing to concede. You win.
We had plenty of soaring after 3:30.
Oh, sorry. Wrong thread.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
If I make this AA:discomfort ratio actionable during market moves, my ISP might say something like "Stick to my AA until the news shrills a hole in my eardrums and today's portfolio value is burned into my retina, then adjust my AA and sell!" If my AA says "Stick to AA!" then I'll do what I'm doing now, which is working on my self-discipline, with whatever tools keep me on my purpose.burritoLover wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:10 pmClosing your eyes to the truth isn't what I'd call discipline.ndomorph wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:59 pmMaybe. And maybe practicing discipline under discomfort is a means to outgrowing cognitive and emotional biases.burritoLover wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:02 am I feel like if you have to force yourself not to look at your account or market news, your equity allocation is still too high.
Similarly, I don't keep chocolate cakes on my counter.
- willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Folks, stocks were down -32% in 2020. We're not even a third of the way to that point so far. It's FAR too early to declare the end of anything (except logic it seems).
The Sensible Steward
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I’ll start buying the US TSM dip whenever either two conditions occur:
1) CAPE10 gets back to 20 or lower
2) Value spreads narrow significantly
3) exUS has much higher valuations
For any of these to occur, US TSM would need significant valuation contraction or underperformance
But I’m still not seeing a screaming bargain for US TSM over the alternatives right now
1) CAPE10 gets back to 20 or lower
2) Value spreads narrow significantly
3) exUS has much higher valuations
For any of these to occur, US TSM would need significant valuation contraction or underperformance
But I’m still not seeing a screaming bargain for US TSM over the alternatives right now
20% VOO | 20% VXUS | 20% AVUV | 20% AVDV | 20% AVES
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I removed a contentious post and a related interchange regarding forum threads (home affordability). The discussion was derailed.
Please stay on-topic.
Please stay on-topic.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
You have been here for 5 years of today. Happy anniversary.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:27 pm Folks, stocks were down -32% in 2020. We're not even a third of the way to that point so far. It's FAR too early to declare the end of anything (except logic it seems).
In those 5 years how much hand wringing have you seen with every market movement.
“Ohh no, the market is crashing.”
“Ohh no, the market is going up so fast. It’s going to crash.“
That’s what is so nice about a good IPS (investment policy statement) and a boglehead style buy and hold portfolio. You do nothing until your IPS says to do something. My IPS is far from telling me to do anything right now. So to pass the time I hang out here.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: |
viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
- willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Thanks!EnjoyIt wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:51 pmYou have been here for 5 years of today. Happy anniversary.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:27 pm Folks, stocks were down -32% in 2020. We're not even a third of the way to that point so far. It's FAR too early to declare the end of anything (except logic it seems).
In those 5 years how much hand wringing have you seen with every market movement.
“Ohh no, the market is crashing.”
“Ohh no, the market is going up so fast. It’s going to crash.“
That’s what is so nice about a good IPS (investment policy statement) and a boglehead style buy and hold portfolio. You do nothing until your IPS says to do something. My IPS is far from telling me to do anything right now. So to pass the time I hang out here.
It's true that many like to wring their hands about literally everything, just as you've aptly pointed out.
I just wish that those who've been to the rodeo multiple times would stop acting like Chicken Little every time they see a little red.
The Sensible Steward
- gmaynardkrebs
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
What is your IPS?EnjoyIt wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:51 pmYou have been here for 5 years of today. Happy anniversary.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:27 pm Folks, stocks were down -32% in 2020. We're not even a third of the way to that point so far. It's FAR too early to declare the end of anything (except logic it seems).
In those 5 years how much hand wringing have you seen with every market movement.
“Ohh no, the market is crashing.”
“Ohh no, the market is going up so fast. It’s going to crash.“
That’s what is so nice about a good IPS (investment policy statement) and a boglehead style buy and hold portfolio. You do nothing until your IPS says to do something. My IPS is far from telling me to do anything right now. So to pass the time I hang out here.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Small arg. It was way up at 1:00pm central. Now it is a loss.pasadena wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:25 pmOr notpasadena wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:08 amAnd of course it's up 1%+ todaypasadena wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:54 pmI liquidated my VTI position in Roth today. I will buy FSKAX tomorrow with the proceeds, and also have a nice chunk of TLH to do in taxable, so I'm kinda hoping for another red day tomorrow.burritoLover wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:40 pm Please, please, please...more market carnage so I can buy cheaper.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
IPS or no IPS…why would you not starting to buy at -10% ?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Because valuations are still much higher than alternativescarminered2019 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:26 pm IPS or no IPS…why would you not starting to buy at -10% ?
20% VOO | 20% VXUS | 20% AVUV | 20% AVDV | 20% AVES
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Lemme know when it's french fries. (I don't think my solution of having boring faculty meetings during market fluctuations generalizes, but reading about the excitement afterwards is kinda fun.)vanbogle59 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:27 pmTo be fair, in about the time it takes to cook one, the VTI potato went from 223 to 216.Tamalak wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:18 pm People are saying the market is reacting crazily to a mild and expected intent to raise rates.
But if I sell Joe a potato today for $1, and sell another one to him tomorrow for $0.99, is that really crazy? Newsworthy?
It only has a crazy effect for people who have millions of dollars' worth of potatoes and do a daily check of their theoretical net worth if they sold every single potato that day. Don't say the market is hysterical, rather, perhaps what we are doing with our own resources is hysterical.
- burritoLover
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Good analogy!ndomorph wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:27 pmIf I make this AA:discomfort ratio actionable during market moves, my ISP might say something like "Stick to my AA until the news shrills a hole in my eardrums and today's portfolio value is burned into my retina, then adjust my AA and sell!" If my AA says "Stick to AA!" then I'll do what I'm doing now, which is working on my self-discipline, with whatever tools keep me on my purpose.burritoLover wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:10 pmClosing your eyes to the truth isn't what I'd call discipline.ndomorph wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:59 pmMaybe. And maybe practicing discipline under discomfort is a means to outgrowing cognitive and emotional biases.burritoLover wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:02 am I feel like if you have to force yourself not to look at your account or market news, your equity allocation is still too high.
Similarly, I don't keep chocolate cakes on my counter.
- peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Yes, but the reason the markets recovered quickly in 2020 was that the Fed and the government pumped a TON of money into the system. They no longer have that arrow in their quiver.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:27 pm Folks, stocks were down -32% in 2020. We're not even a third of the way to that point so far. It's FAR too early to declare the end of anything (except logic it seems).
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Right, some people need to close their eyes when getting shots or having blood drawn, too. The discipline is putting up with the discomfort anyway.
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I was hoping folks in this free fall thread rooting for an actual free fall market.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:27 pm Folks, stocks were down -32% in 2020. We're not even a third of the way to that point so far. It's FAR too early to declare the end of anything (except logic it seems).
Bear market makes fortune for those who stay the course. The bigger the drop, the richer we will all become.
But it seems like many here don't like any drop at all. You can't have a a cake and eat it too!
Time is the ultimate currency.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Because all of my spare money is already invested?carminered2019 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:26 pm IPS or no IPS…why would you not starting to buy at -10% ?
And if I had such a rule, it would be in my IPS
Mine does ssay: "No market timing: do not sell when markets are down unless absolutely necessary. Instead, keep funding the investments with new money."
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
This thread isn't meant to be a fan club for falling stocks, but to discuss the current situation when it does happen.H-Town wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:31 pmI was hoping folks in this free fall thread rooting for an actual free fall market.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:27 pm Folks, stocks were down -32% in 2020. We're not even a third of the way to that point so far. It's FAR too early to declare the end of anything (except logic it seems).
Bear market makes fortune for those who stay the course. The bigger the drop, the richer we will all become.
But it seems like many here don't like any drop at all. You can't have a a cake and eat it too!
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
My 5% rebalancing band isn't even close. Just chilling.
For those that say they're going to "buy the dip", do you really have dry powder waiting? Do you worry about trying to catch a falling knife?
For those that say they're going to "buy the dip", do you really have dry powder waiting? Do you worry about trying to catch a falling knife?
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I just mean with new contributions. I have five funds in my portfolio I allocate to
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
My bad . I didn’t read the prospectus.pasadena wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:36 pmThis thread isn't meant to be a fan club for falling stocks, but to discuss the current situation when it does happen.H-Town wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:31 pmI was hoping folks in this free fall thread rooting for an actual free fall market.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:27 pm Folks, stocks were down -32% in 2020. We're not even a third of the way to that point so far. It's FAR too early to declare the end of anything (except logic it seems).
Bear market makes fortune for those who stay the course. The bigger the drop, the richer we will all become.
But it seems like many here don't like any drop at all. You can't have a a cake and eat it too!
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Powell was super hawkish at the Q&A citing the low unemployment rate and basically saying that we're at full employment. He seemed to have no concern with the impact on the market of monetary policy changes. But he did mention a ceiling based on the amount of debt they had on the balance sheet for rate increases.
The ten year did jump past 1.85%, so my short term forecast is lower stock prices. If I'm wrong, I'll end up buying back in at more than I sold. And then I can humbly admit I made a mistake selling.
I wonder how low they go.
The ten year did jump past 1.85%, so my short term forecast is lower stock prices. If I'm wrong, I'll end up buying back in at more than I sold. And then I can humbly admit I made a mistake selling.
I wonder how low they go.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
The market isn’t one of the Fed’s mandatesrockstar wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:46 pm Powell was super hawkish at the Q&A citing the low unemployment rate and basically saying that we're at full employment. He seemed to have no concern with the impact on the market of monetary policy changes. But he did mention a ceiling based on the amount of debt they had on the balance sheet for rate increases.
The ten year did jump past 1.85%, so my short term forecast is lower stock prices. If I'm wrong, I'll end up buying back in at more than I sold. And then I can humbly admit I made a mistake selling.
I wonder how low they go.
20% VOO | 20% VXUS | 20% AVUV | 20% AVDV | 20% AVES
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Sure we can be resourceful and find dry powder. There are multiple ways:
1) shifting bonds to buy equity
2) squeeze monthly cash flows to buy equity
3) raid the EF fund/cash reserve to buy equity
Cash is fungible...
Time is the ultimate currency.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Ah! That didn't come out as I meant it to. ApologiesCaliforniastate wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:41 pmMy bad . I didn’t read the prospectus.pasadena wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:36 pmThis thread isn't meant to be a fan club for falling stocks, but to discuss the current situation when it does happen.H-Town wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:31 pmI was hoping folks in this free fall thread rooting for an actual free fall market.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:27 pm Folks, stocks were down -32% in 2020. We're not even a third of the way to that point so far. It's FAR too early to declare the end of anything (except logic it seems).
Bear market makes fortune for those who stay the course. The bigger the drop, the richer we will all become.
But it seems like many here don't like any drop at all. You can't have a a cake and eat it too!
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
not his job to focus solely on the market. the economy is not the market. we tend to focus solely on the market on this forumrockstar wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:46 pm Powell was super hawkish at the Q&A citing the low unemployment rate and basically saying that we're at full employment. He seemed to have no concern with the impact on the market of monetary policy changes. But he did mention a ceiling based on the amount of debt they had on the balance sheet for rate increases.
The ten year did jump past 1.85%, so my short term forecast is lower stock prices. If I'm wrong, I'll end up buying back in at more than I sold. And then I can humbly admit I made a mistake selling.
I wonder how low they go.
Time is the ultimate currency.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Isn't rebalancing the same as "buying the dip" at some point and could potentially be catching a falling knife ?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Do you suggest establishing a plan and then market time by not following that plan?carminered2019 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:56 pmIsn't rebalancing the same as "buying the dip" at some point and could potentially be catching a falling knife ?
Cheers
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
"Yes, but the reason the markets recovered quickly in 2020 was that the Fed and the government pumped a TON of money into the system."
Are you certain it's not because the vast number of people who bailed out early and fled to safety took a deep breathe and got back in fairly quickly? Once it started back up more people piled in to get reinvested before the prices got too high.
Meanwhile, after the spring 2020 crash, the market boomed throughout the summer and the fall. I think some folks give the government too much credit when it comes to the stock market.
Of course, I have no personal knowledge of when the free money checks were actually distributed. I know my friends spent theirs, they didn't invest any of it.
Are you certain it's not because the vast number of people who bailed out early and fled to safety took a deep breathe and got back in fairly quickly? Once it started back up more people piled in to get reinvested before the prices got too high.
Meanwhile, after the spring 2020 crash, the market boomed throughout the summer and the fall. I think some folks give the government too much credit when it comes to the stock market.
Of course, I have no personal knowledge of when the free money checks were actually distributed. I know my friends spent theirs, they didn't invest any of it.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
True. But the Fed still pays attention to it. Just read Ben's book about his time at the Fed.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:50 pmThe market isn’t one of the Fed’s mandatesrockstar wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:46 pm Powell was super hawkish at the Q&A citing the low unemployment rate and basically saying that we're at full employment. He seemed to have no concern with the impact on the market of monetary policy changes. But he did mention a ceiling based on the amount of debt they had on the balance sheet for rate increases.
The ten year did jump past 1.85%, so my short term forecast is lower stock prices. If I'm wrong, I'll end up buying back in at more than I sold. And then I can humbly admit I made a mistake selling.
I wonder how low they go.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I think, folks got back into the market because they knew the Fed had their back and because rates were ridiculously low. We now have a Fed that doesn't have our back and rates are climbing. They're still ridiculously low compared to 2019.andypanda wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:05 pm "Yes, but the reason the markets recovered quickly in 2020 was that the Fed and the government pumped a TON of money into the system."
Are you certain it's not because the vast number of people who bailed out early and fled to safety took a deep breathe and got back in fairly quickly? Once it started back up more people piled in to get reinvested before the prices got too high.
Meanwhile, after the spring 2020 crash, the market boomed throughout the summer and the fall. I think some folks give the government too much credit when it comes to the stock market.
Of course, I have no personal knowledge of when the free money checks were actually distributed. I know my friends spent theirs, they didn't invest any of it.
Thus, lower stock prices.
Now, Bill Gross seems to think the 10 year tops at 2% this year. That means it doesn't have a whole lot higher to go, so that should put some floor on stock prices. But that's at best a guess.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Good point.carminered2019 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:56 pmIsn't rebalancing the same as "buying the dip" at some point and could potentially be catching a falling knife ?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Oh no! 10 year notes are up at a rate not seen since... lemme check ...just before Covid.rockstar wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:46 pm Powell was super hawkish at the Q&A citing the low unemployment rate and basically saying that we're at full employment. He seemed to have no concern with the impact on the market of monetary policy changes. But he did mention a ceiling based on the amount of debt they had on the balance sheet for rate increases.
The ten year did jump past 1.85%, so my short term forecast is lower stock prices. If I'm wrong, I'll end up buying back in at more than I sold. And then I can humbly admit I made a mistake selling.
I wonder how low they go.
Huh.
So are you saying the market will fall to pre-covid prices? 25% sale coming up!
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
No clue. But basic DCF says that as interest rates go up, the value of the future cash goes down, so valuations should go down. This is, of course, offset by earnings. Now, given supply constraints and worker shortages, Q1 earnings shouldn't be good. Another reason why prices should go down. I'm guessing based on rational thought, and the market isn't rational.SilverSmurfer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:23 pmOh no! 10 year notes are up at a rate not seen since... lemme check ...just before Covid.rockstar wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:46 pm Powell was super hawkish at the Q&A citing the low unemployment rate and basically saying that we're at full employment. He seemed to have no concern with the impact on the market of monetary policy changes. But he did mention a ceiling based on the amount of debt they had on the balance sheet for rate increases.
The ten year did jump past 1.85%, so my short term forecast is lower stock prices. If I'm wrong, I'll end up buying back in at more than I sold. And then I can humbly admit I made a mistake selling.
I wonder how low they go.
Huh.
So are you saying the market will fall to pre-covid prices? 25% sale coming up!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I'll take a 25% sale, followed by a nice rise as supply-chain and chip issues get resolved, then off to the moon! The Covid dip was so short we didn't get to buy much at reduced prices!rockstar wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:25 pmNo clue. But basic DCF says that as interest rates go up, the value of the future cash goes down, so valuations should go down. This is, of course, offset by earnings. Now, given supply constraints and worker shortages, Q1 earnings shouldn't be good. Another reason why prices should go down. I'm guessing based on rational thought, and the market isn't rational.SilverSmurfer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:23 pmOh no! 10 year notes are up at a rate not seen since... lemme check ...just before Covid.rockstar wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:46 pm Powell was super hawkish at the Q&A citing the low unemployment rate and basically saying that we're at full employment. He seemed to have no concern with the impact on the market of monetary policy changes. But he did mention a ceiling based on the amount of debt they had on the balance sheet for rate increases.
The ten year did jump past 1.85%, so my short term forecast is lower stock prices. If I'm wrong, I'll end up buying back in at more than I sold. And then I can humbly admit I made a mistake selling.
I wonder how low they go.
Huh.
So are you saying the market will fall to pre-covid prices? 25% sale coming up!
The recent volatility has been fun to watch, and seems quite irrational - that's for sure.
We're all clueless, but have fun talking about it anyways.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Asia in free fall.
U.S futures in the red.
U.S futures in the red.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I'm not going to post my entire IPS, but the portion I think you are asking about is:gmaynardkrebs wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:04 pmWhat is your IPS?EnjoyIt wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:51 pmYou have been here for 5 years of today. Happy anniversary.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:27 pm Folks, stocks were down -32% in 2020. We're not even a third of the way to that point so far. It's FAR too early to declare the end of anything (except logic it seems).
In those 5 years how much hand wringing have you seen with every market movement.
“Ohh no, the market is crashing.”
“Ohh no, the market is going up so fast. It’s going to crash.“
That’s what is so nice about a good IPS (investment policy statement) and a boglehead style buy and hold portfolio. You do nothing until your IPS says to do something. My IPS is far from telling me to do anything right now. So to pass the time I hang out here.
Tax loss harvest when losses are over $3k.
Rebalance when I'm 5% outside of my 70/30 portfolio with the permission to overbalance a little up to 74/26
Rebalance back only ofter returning to previous levels which means I will be outside of my original AA until recovery.
If markets continue to fall, I will rebalance again.
My IPS keeps me from fiddling too much, but still gives me the feeling like I'm doing positive things.
Last edited by EnjoyIt on Wed Jan 26, 2022 8:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: |
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Why not 9% or 11%? What is so special about 10%?carminered2019 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:26 pm IPS or no IPS…why would you not starting to buy at -10% ?
That is what an IPS is for. So you don't have to use gut feeling to make decisions.
If your IPS says 10% then knock yourself out and buy. But don't do it because it feels right.
You wrote your IPS ideally when the market was more stable and you took your time in making that decision as opposed to now when the market is wild and your brain is telling you to do something.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: |
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