Thanks willthrill81. I've enjoyed your voice of reason for years....willthrill81 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:17 pmI thought so too, but stocks outperformed. In fact, stocks are slightly up in value over that time frame, while bonds lost 2% in nominal value.cos wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:15 pmBonds. Intuition tells me that less volatility means less decay, but maybe I hang out around here too much.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:10 pm Since October 1st of 2021, which do you intuitively think performed better, U.S. total stocks or total bonds?
U.S. stocks in free fall
- FreddieFIRE
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
A house and a job. Once the American dream. Two things I'll never again have. Life is simple (and good).
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
LOL. Of course, when have we ever paid any attention to what "financial journalists" have to say? What the heck are those anyways.peskypesky wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:22 pmOne financial journalist referred to technical analysis as "astrology for men".
A house and a job. Once the American dream. Two things I'll never again have. Life is simple (and good).
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
What on earth are you watching?? Do you pay for this stuff or are you getting it for free?stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:58 pm as far as technicals go, the problem right now is that we're quite a bit below the 200 DMA so that serves as overhead resistance, it's doing a classic backtest of the 200 DMA but it looks like if tomorrow fails then we're going on a lower downtrend for a good while....
A house and a job. Once the American dream. Two things I'll never again have. Life is simple (and good).
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
agreedFreddieFIRE wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:38 pmThat right there is crazy talk!! Retirement is that absolute best invention ever!!!
- peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Yes.HanSolo wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:33 pmIf your meaning is that you responded to the post I cited, then no, that is false.peskypesky wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:09 pm nope. didn't miss it. I responded to it. you must have been asleep.
Here it is again, if you want to respond to it:
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Thank you. You are one tough commentator, and that helps me. It forces me to clarify my thoughts.
Here I was thinking I had done pretty well, beating BND by 9x over two years without taking on excessive risk. But you are right, I need a re-entry plan. I had entry and exit points but now that part has run its course and I am left holding a thick stack of cash. There are a lot of worse things that could happen to a guy, but now it is time to build on results so far.
Of course, the easy way would be to just buy BND on Tuesday and call it a day.
But YOLO, and I think I will just wing it for a few days. If QQQ goes up by 5% I will probably buy back in. Down another 10% and I will buy back in while declaring victory. No promises either way, except I will tell what I have done.
Homer: what do you think the next move should be?
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
wednesday fed. vix is high. big moves comin. i'm no nostradamus. up down sideways. gluck
Don’t let anyone else ruin your portfolio. It’s your portfolio. Ruin it yourself!!!
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Futures down big.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I love it. Time to take another crazy ride or just ignore financial news
sent from my user friendly home computer.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
That was my thought as well. 10-12% off S&P ATH triggered some rebalancing thresholds, hence the mid day comeback.SuperTrooper87 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 6:36 amI think yesterday rebounded from buyers triggering at 10-12% off ATH of SP500.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Was that a classic dead cat bounce? Time is compressing and now things happen in the same trading session.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Is all the selling off in the markets a healthy event to sort of reset things or is this much bigger than that?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
technical analysis... lots of yourube videos on it, check out fxempireFreddieFIRE wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:44 pm ]
What on earth are you watching?? Do you pay for this stuff or are you getting it for free?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It looked like a bear rally. Seemed too dramatic to be a "correction is over" thing. But we'll see.
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Looks like another fun roller coaster day (popcorn ready!)
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Any index going straight down isn't healthy, just like going straight up isn't a healthy either.tvubpwcisla wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 6:42 am Is all the selling off in the markets a healthy event to sort of reset things or is this much bigger than that?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Jeremy Siegel (!!!!), Jan 24, 2022
At the same time, he is consistently accurate, doesn't distort facts, and acknowledged in the fifth edition of Stocks for the Long Run that a famous statement about stocks beating bonds "was no longer true."
Yes, it's still noise and I'm still going to tune it out as far as acting on it. But it's significant because Jeremy Siegel is famously and consistently bullish (for the long run, of course).I wouldn't be surprised if Nasdaq, S&P 500 enter bear market territory
At the same time, he is consistently accurate, doesn't distort facts, and acknowledged in the fifth edition of Stocks for the Long Run that a famous statement about stocks beating bonds "was no longer true."
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
That is pretty unusual. He had been a pretty consistent bullish pundit.
For better or worse, it echos my own sentiments of late
Last edited by JoMoney on Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I'm out of the market as well as I used roughly the 200 day moving average. I didn't precisely hit it, but I'm close enough.CurlyDave wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:18 amThank you. You are one tough commentator, and that helps me. It forces me to clarify my thoughts.
Here I was thinking I had done pretty well, beating BND by 9x over two years without taking on excessive risk. But you are right, I need a re-entry plan. I had entry and exit points but now that part has run its course and I am left holding a thick stack of cash. There are a lot of worse things that could happen to a guy, but now it is time to build on results so far.
Of course, the easy way would be to just buy BND on Tuesday and call it a day.
But YOLO, and I think I will just wing it for a few days. If QQQ goes up by 5% I will probably buy back in. Down another 10% and I will buy back in while declaring victory. No promises either way, except I will tell what I have done.
Homer: what do you think the next move should be?
My plan is to get back in when I can get a PE of 20x or lower for the S&P 500. I'll probably start buying at 22x. It's about 25x now. If I miss that opportunity, then I'll just buy back in at roughly what I sold. It's imperfect, but I have zero clue what the bottom of this mess will be. This is the first time I've seen the Fed go into a tightening cycle with high inflation. This wasn't the case with the last taper tantrum. This feels like 1999 to me. I want to avoid another lost decade.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
To those saying this is not that bad, I read somewhere last night that this is the worst start to the year for the stock market in the history of the stock market. So it isn't good.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Doesn't mean anything. Would you feel better if it fell in July?
It's not that bad... yet. There seem to be people around that have never seen a market fall by even 10 percent. It can get much worse.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Although that might be the case when starting a year, this drawdown compared to others regardless of when they occurred during the year doesn’t come close to being one of the worst. I believe that to be the more accurate comparison.
With that said, this one’s not done yet.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Are there really that many folks who weren’t around 22 months ago?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Sure, but we aren't done yet. I lived through 2000, 2008, 2020. I absolutely know it can get worse.Fortitude wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:28 amAlthough that might be the case when starting a year, this drawdown compared to others regardless of when they occurred during the year doesn’t come close to being one of the worst. I believe that to be the more accurate comparison.
With that said, this one’s not done yet.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
As the The Economist wrote in one of their cover articles, it went something like:
"2022 could be a bear market. Even worse, 2022 might not be a bear market"
"2022 could be a bear market. Even worse, 2022 might not be a bear market"
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I have no idea; it doesn't seem possible, I agree. Maybe because there was such a quick rebound from the COVID low that some people got spoiled. I am guessing there are some people here who have never seen the market end a year down 25 percent or more.alfaspider wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:28 amAre there really that many folks who weren’t around 22 months ago?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Keep in mind, that at the current price, the S&P 500 would have to lop off 23% just to get back to the pre-pandemic Feb 20' price.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I follow John Bogle's advice below:rockstar wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:09 amI'm out of the market as well as I used roughly the 200 day moving average. I didn't precisely hit it, but I'm close enough.CurlyDave wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:18 amThank you. You are one tough commentator, and that helps me. It forces me to clarify my thoughts.
Here I was thinking I had done pretty well, beating BND by 9x over two years without taking on excessive risk. But you are right, I need a re-entry plan. I had entry and exit points but now that part has run its course and I am left holding a thick stack of cash. There are a lot of worse things that could happen to a guy, but now it is time to build on results so far.
Of course, the easy way would be to just buy BND on Tuesday and call it a day.
But YOLO, and I think I will just wing it for a few days. If QQQ goes up by 5% I will probably buy back in. Down another 10% and I will buy back in while declaring victory. No promises either way, except I will tell what I have done.
Homer: what do you think the next move should be?
My plan is to get back in when I can get a PE of 20x or lower for the S&P 500. I'll probably start buying at 22x. It's about 25x now. If I miss that opportunity, then I'll just buy back in at roughly what I sold. It's imperfect, but I have zero clue what the bottom of this mess will be. This is the first time I've seen the Fed go into a tightening cycle with high inflation. This wasn't the case with the last taper tantrum. This feels like 1999 to me. I want to avoid another lost decade.
Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy - John Bogle |
Learn every day, but especially from the experiences of others, it's cheaper! - John Bogle
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
My FSKAX order yesterday executed at 123, which is good. So no harm.AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 6:06 pmThank god I only bought a very little bit, realizing that was likely.mtmingus wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 6:04 pmClosing price.AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 6:03 pm So on a day like today, how are buy orders for mutual funds processed? In the order received? Or do we all get the closing price (which would be atrocious!)
I bought more of an ETF too and got a good price, VTI at 215.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Only the youngest investors wouldn't have been familiar with 2008 (last time a market ended a year down more than 25%). However, I can understand that a lot of folks wouldn't have had significant money in the market at the time. I followed it closely, but I was a broke student with zero stock market investments, so it didn't impact me directly. Before that, the last time would have been 1974. Only the oldest investors would have had significant money in the market back then. Before that would have been 1937. Perhaps Taylor Larrimore remembers that one, but I doubt he was much in the market as a teenager!Tom_T wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:39 amI have no idea; it doesn't seem possible, I agree. Maybe because there was such a quick rebound from the COVID low that some people got spoiled. I am guessing there are some people here who have never seen the market end a year down 25 percent or more.alfaspider wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:28 amAre there really that many folks who weren’t around 22 months ago?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
You’re right. Someone posted a list of the past three or so bear markets and 2020, the closest to most recent memory, wasn’t on the list. Rather than people becoming spoiled, I think it’s more a matter of some people don’t even view 2020 as a bear market because we came out of it so quickly. As you alluded to, people remember them more and the mental scars are more embedded when the year ends while we’re still in one.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
And that seems to be what most people here are rooting for.burritoLover wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:42 am Keep in mind, that at the current price, the S&P 500 would have to lop off 23% just to get back to the pre-pandemic Feb 20' price.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
The cool thing is 10 years from now I will not remember any of these except my portfolio will grow much bigger than today 1/25/22.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Here we go folks!
I ended up selling a large position of my VTSAX yesterday to cover some upcoming home improvement cost and as well to keep some dry powder when it comes time buy back in. At least I sold at that nice little high bump.
I ended up selling a large position of my VTSAX yesterday to cover some upcoming home improvement cost and as well to keep some dry powder when it comes time buy back in. At least I sold at that nice little high bump.
Last edited by Visitor76 on Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
Wealth is not about having a lot of money; it's about having a lot of options.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I had just begun investing in 2007 as a freshman in college, so 2008 was scary for me to watch, but it was a huge learning experience. I remember how scary it was to see the DOW fall 1100 points when the first TARP vote failed. And 1000 points in 2008 was a lot more than 1000 points todayalfaspider wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:48 amOnly the youngest investors wouldn't have been familiar with 2008 (last time a market ended a year down more than 25%). However, I can understand that a lot of folks wouldn't have had significant money in the market at the time. I followed it closely, but I was a broke student with zero stock market investments, so it didn't impact me directly. Before that, the last time would have been 1974. Only the oldest investors would have had significant money in the market back then. Before that would have been 1937. Perhaps Taylor Larrimore remembers that one, but I doubt he was much in the market as a teenager!Tom_T wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:39 amI have no idea; it doesn't seem possible, I agree. Maybe because there was such a quick rebound from the COVID low that some people got spoiled. I am guessing there are some people here who have never seen the market end a year down 25 percent or more.alfaspider wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:28 amAre there really that many folks who weren’t around 22 months ago?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Even if it was the worst start to the year in history, what predictive value does that hold? It seems to me these types of historical comparisons only get you so far. It could bode poorly for the future but it could not. Even if one grants that it means poor performance in the short term, it doesn't tell us anything about the intermediate-long term. It could be the worst start followed by the best end to the year, the worst start followed by the worst end to the year or something in between.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I just cant believe there can be so much selling in anticipation of four rate hikes and fed fund rate at 1% at end of 2022?! Let’s say even 6 hikes and we’re still between 1-2%. There is still no good alternative to stocks.
Last edited by am on Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
The market appears to have forgotten to take its bipolar meds.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
This sort of thing isn't rational in the short term. People sell because others sell. That trips algorithms which are programmed to sell. Much of the buying over the last 2 years wasn't really rational either.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Who constitutes the majority of the selling lower?
Is it big institutional fund, pension, etc managers who have to report their results every quarter? I believe I read that this group constitutes the majority of volumes. Don’t they know that buy and hold is the best way to go?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I was going to sit today out. I don’t want to catch a falling knife but my buy orders executed satisfactorily yesterday and I need a few more equities in my shopping basket.
This dramatic drop seems like undue hysteria to me, so I may pick up a smidge more VTI today in taxable. Not advocating that or implying I have any predictive insights / information of course.
This dramatic drop seems like undue hysteria to me, so I may pick up a smidge more VTI today in taxable. Not advocating that or implying I have any predictive insights / information of course.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Right, that's why this is all so silly. It isn't like we're looking at 4-5% on the fed funds rate
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Maybe not long term, but apparently lots of short term alternatives to losing 10%.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Are these algorithms which constitute a big chunk of volume part of hedge funds? I hear they mostly underperform compared to sp500. Why do they still constitute the majority of volume?alfaspider wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:59 amThis sort of thing isn't rational in the short term. People sell because others sell. That trips algorithms which are programmed to sell. Much of the buying over the last 2 years wasn't really rational either.
- peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Your reasoning is odd. Damage to portfolios and people's wealth is already happening. Right now. You don't need to predict anything to see that. It's already happening.Volando wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:56 amEven if it was the worst start to the year in history, what predictive value does that hold? It seems to me these types of historical comparisons only get you so far. It could bode poorly for the future but it could not. Even if one grants that it means poor performance in the short term, it doesn't tell us anything about the intermediate-long term. It could be the worst start followed by the best end to the year, the worst start followed by the worst end to the year or something in between.
If someone comes up and smacks you in the face with a hammer, are you going to respond "so what? Just because you smacked me in the face with a hammer doesn't mean you're going to smack me again"?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It’s much more than that. Markets are not only trying to price in an unknown number of rate hikes along with not knowing the size of the increases, but you also have an end to QE, the beginning of rolling off $9 trillion from the Fed balance sheet this summer, geopolitical issues with Russia, 4Q 2021 earnings and Covid.
An awful lot of uncertainty.
Last edited by Fortitude on Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
We all have predictive capabilities. The question is just how much of it is usually correctAnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:01 am Not advocating that or implying I have any predictive insights / information of course.
Like yesterday, I'm going to predict again today that S&P500 and/or VTI will end in positive territory by close.
Last edited by fetch5482 on Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
(AGE minus 23%) Bonds | 5% REITs | Balance 80% US (75/25 TSM/SCV) + 20% International (80/20 Developed/Emerging)
- peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
That's not true during a market crash.
Gold is better. Silver is better. Bonds are better. Even cash is better.