GloatingUpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:54 pm Why is this thread active tonight following two days of rally?
U.S. stocks in free fall
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Retired June 2023. AA = 55/35/10
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Because they are the same thread.UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:54 pm Why is this thread active tonight following two days of rally?
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I guess, the market isn't as efficient as we thought.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
In the short term it's not efficient at all. Never has been. It's highly speculative in the short term.
"In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long run, it is a weighing machine" ~Benjamin Graham
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Heh... Truer words have never been spoken.Beensabu wrote: ↑Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:05 pmBecause they are the same thread.UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:54 pm Why is this thread active tonight following two days of rally?
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Why? The market is behaving efficiently here.
I hear/see this "markets aren't efficient" sentiment from time to time, but it's because people don't know or appreciate what "efficient" means. This doesn't mean the prices are set and stay steady. It means the market is "efficient" at getting to a price that eliminates the possibility of making an economic profit (aka above average return).
All information is baked into the price, including sentiment, fear, etc. Prices fluctuate with changes in this, which is why it might skyrocket one day, dip the next, and rebound the third.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
If the money that was used to purchase stocks came from selling bonds, then what about the money that was used on that day to buy the same bonds? Where did it come from?Marseille07 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:46 pmI think there's just too much cash floating around, and today 10Y went up like 10%? This means traders sold bonds, and some of the money surely flowed into stocks.
Strategic Macro Senior (top 1%, 2019 Bogleheads Contest)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I'm just spitballing here, I don't even understand why 10Y hovered around 1.25% when CPI was printing 5%+ for months, and now suddenly spiking around 1.45%.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
futures red.. so that was a dead cat bounce?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
1989 Nikkei: "Hello."anoop wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:37 pmSince the prediction has no timeline, it is guaranteed to be true.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I'm sure the Nikkei will hit an ATH again.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:12 pm1989 Nikkei: "Hello."anoop wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:37 pmSince the prediction has no timeline, it is guaranteed to be true.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Maybe one day. They're still 28% away...anoop wrote: ↑Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:15 pmI'm sure the Nikkei will hit an ATH again.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:12 pm1989 Nikkei: "Hello."anoop wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:37 pmSince the prediction has no timeline, it is guaranteed to be true.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
They're almost 300% above the lows following that crash. (See -- even I can think positive.)Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:22 pmMaybe one day. They're still 28% away...
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I removed an off-topic interchange regarding the likelihood of an astronomical event. The discussion was derailed.
Please stay on-topic.
Please stay on-topic.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It doesn't make sense to look at a change in the yield of the bond as a percentage of the previous value. The effect on the bond market is almost the same for a 0.1% increase, whether it is from 1% to 1.1% (a 10% relative increase) or 5% to 5.1% (a 2% relative increase). Either way, if the bond has a 9-year duration, its price will fall by 0.9%. (The 10-year Treasury bond has a duration slightly less than 10 years because some of the value is from coupon payments made before 10 years.)Marseille07 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:46 pmI think there's just too much cash floating around, and today 10Y went up like 10%? This means traders sold bonds, and some of the money surely flowed into stocks.
The change in the last two days was 0.15%, which corresponds to a price change of about 1.4%.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
No. Likely, perhaps, but still not guaranteed.anoop wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:37 pmSince the prediction has no timeline, it is guaranteed to be true.
Strategic Macro Senior (top 1%, 2019 Bogleheads Contest)
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It doesn't make sense. I was dramatizing the jump I think the Fed's bond purchases is suppressing 10Y, though we won't find out until tapering makes progress.grabiner wrote: ↑Sun Sep 26, 2021 6:23 pmIt doesn't make sense to look at a change in the yield of the bond as a percentage of the previous value. The effect on the bond market is almost the same for a 0.1% increase, whether it is from 1% to 1.1% (a 10% relative increase) or 5% to 5.1% (a 2% relative increase). Either way, if the bond has a 9-year duration, its price will fall by 0.9%. (The 10-year Treasury bond has a duration slightly less than 10 years because some of the value is from coupon payments made before 10 years.)Marseille07 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:46 pmI think there's just too much cash floating around, and today 10Y went up like 10%? This means traders sold bonds, and some of the money surely flowed into stocks.
The change in the last two days was 0.15%, which corresponds to a price change of about 1.4%.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
That is not what things looked like when I went to bed last night!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
A mixed market. A good day so far for Value, particularly Small Value, a down day for Growth.
A fool and his money are good for business.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Yep. Looks like the market is anticipating higher inflation and faster economic growth which is good for Value as long as the inflation doesn't get way out of hand.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 27, 2021 11:06 amYeah, I think 10Y rising is hurting 'DAQ. I don't think it *should*, but it seems to.
A fool and his money are good for business.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
You don't think a higher risk-free rate makes risky long-term cash flows less valuable?Marseille07 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 27, 2021 11:06 amYeah, I think 10Y rising is hurting 'DAQ. I don't think it *should*, but it seems to.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I do, but what makes you think the companies listed on NASDAQ today carry risky long-term cash flows whereas S&P500 companies don't?dreambig wrote: ↑Mon Sep 27, 2021 9:25 pmYou don't think a higher risk-free rate makes risky long-term cash flows less valuable?Marseille07 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 27, 2021 11:06 amYeah, I think 10Y rising is hurting 'DAQ. I don't think it *should*, but it seems to.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It is simple. NASDAQ has riskier cash flows. I'll quote Barrons instead of trying to write an explanation myself.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 27, 2021 10:05 pmI do, but what makes you think the companies listed on NASDAQ today carry risky long-term cash flows whereas S&P500 companies don't?dreambig wrote: ↑Mon Sep 27, 2021 9:25 pmYou don't think a higher risk-free rate makes risky long-term cash flows less valuable?Marseille07 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 27, 2021 11:06 amYeah, I think 10Y rising is hurting 'DAQ. I don't think it *should*, but it seems to.
"The problem isn’t inflation expectations though. It’s math. Higher interest rates hurt high growth stocks that generate most of their cash flow far in the future. Higher rates have less of an impact on slower growth companies that are paying dividends rather than spending on the future."
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
You realize the biggest names of NASDAQ are the biggest names of S&P500 right? What you're saying is true in 2000 during the dot-com era, not in 2021.dreambig wrote: ↑Mon Sep 27, 2021 10:54 pm It is simple. NASDAQ has riskier cash flows. I'll quote Barrons instead of trying to write an explanation myself.
"The problem isn’t inflation expectations though. It’s math. Higher interest rates hurt high growth stocks that generate most of their cash flow far in the future. Higher rates have less of an impact on slower growth companies that are paying dividends rather than spending on the future."
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
No. NASDAQ has more growth stocks overall. Anyway, you're disagreeing with the market so that should offer some pause.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Disagreeing with how the NASDAQ moved today was the whole point from the get go. For example, selling MSFT 2% was silly and this presents a buying opportunity for those buying the dip.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Asia down. Europe down.
US futures down.
Lots of red out there today.
US futures down.
Lots of red out there today.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Maybe not the right thread, but since this is a free fallin' thread -
I own a stock or ETF, with multiple lots, with some having gains and some having losses, so:
Lot A: $500 gain
Lot B: $300 loss
I sell both at the same time. Does this trigger the wash sale rule?
I own a stock or ETF, with multiple lots, with some having gains and some having losses, so:
Lot A: $500 gain
Lot B: $300 loss
I sell both at the same time. Does this trigger the wash sale rule?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
A wash sale only triggers if you repurchase the same security (or very similar) within a 60 day window in both directions of the sale date. You are only selling so no but watch out for reinvested dividends which are also a purchase.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Don’t understand why it so worrisome that the 10 yr treasury moves from really low to a bit higher and we have a nasdaq and market sell off?
My guess is some active managers of large funds trying to market time.
My guess is some active managers of large funds trying to market time.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Stocks have been pumped up to ridiculous levels in great part because of TINA. As bond yields increase, TINA recedes. It won't happen all at once or at some magical crossover point in bond yields. It will happen gradually, like Chinese water torture if you're a stock investor.
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Increasingly possible that September 2nd (4,545) was the peak. I did consider it more likely that the market would peak in November. A third quarter peak would be a rebuttal to critics who prematurely dismissed the Q3 timeframe.
Amateur Self-Taught Senior Macro Strategist
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
So if rates keep rising, then we have a lot of losses to look forward to, especially since total us market returns are so dependent on tech. Wonder what the fed will do since high rates are bad for all the debt they have on the books and bad for us market returns?namajones wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:20 amStocks have been pumped up to ridiculous levels in great part because of TINA. As bond yields increase, TINA recedes. It won't happen all at once or at some magical crossover point in bond yields. It will happen gradually, like Chinese water torture if you're a stock investor.
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
No one can predict the future.am wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:30 amSo if rates keep rising, then we have a lot of losses to look forward to, especially since total us market returns are so dependent on tech. Wonder what the fed will do since high rates are bad for all the debt they have on the books and bad for us market returns?namajones wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:20 amStocks have been pumped up to ridiculous levels in great part because of TINA. As bond yields increase, TINA recedes. It won't happen all at once or at some magical crossover point in bond yields. It will happen gradually, like Chinese water torture if you're a stock investor.
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
As for me, I appreciate cash as part of my portfolio.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Yeah, because these are comparable. /sMarseille07 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:12 pm1989 Nikkei: "Hello."anoop wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:37 pmSince the prediction has no timeline, it is guaranteed to be true.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Hopefully you're diversifiedam wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:30 amSo if rates keep rising, then we have a lot of losses to look forward to, especially since total us market returns are so dependent on tech. Wonder what the fed will do since high rates are bad for all the debt they have on the books and bad for us market returns?namajones wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:20 amStocks have been pumped up to ridiculous levels in great part because of TINA. As bond yields increase, TINA recedes. It won't happen all at once or at some magical crossover point in bond yields. It will happen gradually, like Chinese water torture if you're a stock investor.
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
As diversified as a 3 funder can be- us total market essentially a tech growth fund and us bond index a negative real return asset. Hoping international will save the daylostdog wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:34 amHopefully you're diversifiedam wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:30 amSo if rates keep rising, then we have a lot of losses to look forward to, especially since total us market returns are so dependent on tech. Wonder what the fed will do since high rates are bad for all the debt they have on the books and bad for us market returns?namajones wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:20 amStocks have been pumped up to ridiculous levels in great part because of TINA. As bond yields increase, TINA recedes. It won't happen all at once or at some magical crossover point in bond yields. It will happen gradually, like Chinese water torture if you're a stock investor.
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
am wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:36 amAs diversified as a 3 funder can be- us total market essentially a tech growth fund and us bond index a negative real return asset. Hoping international will save the daylostdog wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:34 amHopefully you're diversifiedam wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:30 amSo if rates keep rising, then we have a lot of losses to look forward to, especially since total us market returns are so dependent on tech. Wonder what the fed will do since high rates are bad for all the debt they have on the books and bad for us market returns?namajones wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:20 amStocks have been pumped up to ridiculous levels in great part because of TINA. As bond yields increase, TINA recedes. It won't happen all at once or at some magical crossover point in bond yields. It will happen gradually, like Chinese water torture if you're a stock investor.
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
That would be a kick in the chin for all those 100% threads.am wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:36 amAs diversified as a 3 funder can be- us total market essentially a tech growth fund and us bond index a negative real return asset. Hoping international will save the daylostdog wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:34 amHopefully you're diversifiedam wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:30 amSo if rates keep rising, then we have a lot of losses to look forward to, especially since total us market returns are so dependent on tech. Wonder what the fed will do since high rates are bad for all the debt they have on the books and bad for us market returns?namajones wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:20 amStocks have been pumped up to ridiculous levels in great part because of TINA. As bond yields increase, TINA recedes. It won't happen all at once or at some magical crossover point in bond yields. It will happen gradually, like Chinese water torture if you're a stock investor.
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: |
viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
At the end of the day, the market has to have periods of down time. Otherwise too many up days leads to exorbitant enthusiasm which leads to bubbles that eventually pop. I would rather have a few downward corrections on the way up as opposed to large 30-50% bubble burst.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: |
viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
the prophet has spoken
this is it!
run for the hill!
every man for himself!
Time is the ultimate currency.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Livesoft, will we get another VXUS RBD? I’m on the edge of my seat
80% global equities (faith-based tilt) + 20% TIPS (LDI)