U.S. stocks in free fall

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by RyeBourbon »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:54 pm Why is this thread active tonight following two days of rally?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Beensabu »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:54 pm Why is this thread active tonight following two days of rally?
Because they are the same thread.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

I guess, the market isn't as efficient as we thought.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:43 pm I guess, the market isn't as efficient as we thought.
I think there's just too much cash floating around, and today 10Y went up like 10%? This means traders sold bonds, and some of the money surely flowed into stocks.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jason2459 »

rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:43 pm I guess, the market isn't as efficient as we thought.
In the short term it's not efficient at all. Never has been. It's highly speculative in the short term.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

Beensabu wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:05 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:54 pm Why is this thread active tonight following two days of rally?
Because they are the same thread.
Heh... Truer words have never been spoken. :beer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by sureshoe »

rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:43 pm I guess, the market isn't as efficient as we thought.
Why? The market is behaving efficiently here.

I hear/see this "markets aren't efficient" sentiment from time to time, but it's because people don't know or appreciate what "efficient" means. This doesn't mean the prices are set and stay steady. It means the market is "efficient" at getting to a price that eliminates the possibility of making an economic profit (aka above average return).

All information is baked into the price, including sentiment, fear, etc. Prices fluctuate with changes in this, which is why it might skyrocket one day, dip the next, and rebound the third.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HanSolo »

Marseille07 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:46 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:43 pm I guess, the market isn't as efficient as we thought.
I think there's just too much cash floating around, and today 10Y went up like 10%? This means traders sold bonds, and some of the money surely flowed into stocks.
If the money that was used to purchase stocks came from selling bonds, then what about the money that was used on that day to buy the same bonds? Where did it come from?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

HanSolo wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 11:37 pm If the money that was used to purchase stocks came from selling bonds, then what about the money that was used on that day to buy the same bonds? Where did it come from?
I'm just spitballing here, I don't even understand why 10Y hovered around 1.25% when CPI was printing 5%+ for months, and now suddenly spiking around 1.45%.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by vanbogle59 »

HanSolo wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 11:37 pm If the money that was used to purchase stocks came from selling bonds, then what about the money that was used on that day to buy the same bonds? Where did it come from?
Maybe from the money that was made by selling the same stocks?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 »

futures red.. so that was a dead cat bounce?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Hyperchicken »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Fri Sep 24, 2021 8:00 am futures red.. so that was a dead cat bounce?
Meow.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

anoop wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:37 pm
TheLaughingCow wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:36 pm
bugleheadd wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:57 pm Fact: we will reach ATH again
Not necessarily
Since the prediction has no timeline, it is guaranteed to be true.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by anoop »

Marseille07 wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:12 pm
anoop wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:37 pm
TheLaughingCow wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:36 pm
bugleheadd wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:57 pm Fact: we will reach ATH again
Not necessarily
Since the prediction has no timeline, it is guaranteed to be true.
1989 Nikkei: "Hello."
I'm sure the Nikkei will hit an ATH again.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

anoop wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:15 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:12 pm
anoop wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:37 pm
TheLaughingCow wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:36 pm
bugleheadd wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:57 pm Fact: we will reach ATH again
Not necessarily
Since the prediction has no timeline, it is guaranteed to be true.
1989 Nikkei: "Hello."
I'm sure the Nikkei will hit an ATH again.
Maybe one day. They're still 28% away... :shock:
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by anoop »

Marseille07 wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:22 pm
anoop wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:15 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:12 pm
anoop wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:37 pm
TheLaughingCow wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:36 pm

Not necessarily
Since the prediction has no timeline, it is guaranteed to be true.
1989 Nikkei: "Hello."
I'm sure the Nikkei will hit an ATH again.
Maybe one day. They're still 28% away... :shock:
They're almost 300% above the lows following that crash. (See -- even I can think positive.)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LadyGeek »

I removed an off-topic interchange regarding the likelihood of an astronomical event. The discussion was derailed.

Please stay on-topic.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by grabiner »

Marseille07 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:46 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:43 pm I guess, the market isn't as efficient as we thought.
I think there's just too much cash floating around, and today 10Y went up like 10%? This means traders sold bonds, and some of the money surely flowed into stocks.
It doesn't make sense to look at a change in the yield of the bond as a percentage of the previous value. The effect on the bond market is almost the same for a 0.1% increase, whether it is from 1% to 1.1% (a 10% relative increase) or 5% to 5.1% (a 2% relative increase). Either way, if the bond has a 9-year duration, its price will fall by 0.9%. (The 10-year Treasury bond has a duration slightly less than 10 years because some of the value is from coupon payments made before 10 years.)

The change in the last two days was 0.15%, which corresponds to a price change of about 1.4%.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HanSolo »

anoop wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:37 pm
TheLaughingCow wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:36 pm
bugleheadd wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:57 pm Fact: we will reach ATH again
Not necessarily
Since the prediction has no timeline, it is guaranteed to be true.
No. Likely, perhaps, but still not guaranteed.
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anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by anoop »

HanSolo wrote: Sun Sep 26, 2021 9:50 pm
anoop wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:37 pm
TheLaughingCow wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:36 pm
bugleheadd wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:57 pm Fact: we will reach ATH again
Not necessarily
Since the prediction has no timeline, it is guaranteed to be true.
No. Likely, perhaps, but still not guaranteed.
Agree, I stand corrected.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

grabiner wrote: Sun Sep 26, 2021 6:23 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:46 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:43 pm I guess, the market isn't as efficient as we thought.
I think there's just too much cash floating around, and today 10Y went up like 10%? This means traders sold bonds, and some of the money surely flowed into stocks.
It doesn't make sense to look at a change in the yield of the bond as a percentage of the previous value. The effect on the bond market is almost the same for a 0.1% increase, whether it is from 1% to 1.1% (a 10% relative increase) or 5% to 5.1% (a 2% relative increase). Either way, if the bond has a 9-year duration, its price will fall by 0.9%. (The 10-year Treasury bond has a duration slightly less than 10 years because some of the value is from coupon payments made before 10 years.)

The change in the last two days was 0.15%, which corresponds to a price change of about 1.4%.
It doesn't make sense. I was dramatizing the jump :D I think the Fed's bond purchases is suppressing 10Y, though we won't find out until tapering makes progress.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by sailaway »

That is not what things looked like when I went to bed last night!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bugleheadd »

sailaway wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 10:03 am That is not what things looked like when I went to bed last night!
I'm hoping there's a v shape recovery this afternoon back to where futures was last night
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid »

A mixed market. A good day so far for Value, particularly Small Value, a down day for Growth.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

nedsaid wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 10:53 am A mixed market. A good day so far for Value, particularly Small Value, a down day for Growth.
Yeah, I think 10Y rising is hurting 'DAQ. I don't think it *should*, but it seems to.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 11:06 am
nedsaid wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 10:53 am A mixed market. A good day so far for Value, particularly Small Value, a down day for Growth.
Yeah, I think 10Y rising is hurting 'DAQ. I don't think it *should*, but it seems to.
Yep. Looks like the market is anticipating higher inflation and faster economic growth which is good for Value as long as the inflation doesn't get way out of hand.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by dreambig »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 11:06 am
nedsaid wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 10:53 am A mixed market. A good day so far for Value, particularly Small Value, a down day for Growth.
Yeah, I think 10Y rising is hurting 'DAQ. I don't think it *should*, but it seems to.
You don't think a higher risk-free rate makes risky long-term cash flows less valuable?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

dreambig wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 9:25 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 11:06 am
nedsaid wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 10:53 am A mixed market. A good day so far for Value, particularly Small Value, a down day for Growth.
Yeah, I think 10Y rising is hurting 'DAQ. I don't think it *should*, but it seems to.
You don't think a higher risk-free rate makes risky long-term cash flows less valuable?
I do, but what makes you think the companies listed on NASDAQ today carry risky long-term cash flows whereas S&P500 companies don't?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by dreambig »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 10:05 pm
dreambig wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 9:25 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 11:06 am
nedsaid wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 10:53 am A mixed market. A good day so far for Value, particularly Small Value, a down day for Growth.
Yeah, I think 10Y rising is hurting 'DAQ. I don't think it *should*, but it seems to.
You don't think a higher risk-free rate makes risky long-term cash flows less valuable?
I do, but what makes you think the companies listed on NASDAQ today carry risky long-term cash flows whereas S&P500 companies don't?
It is simple. NASDAQ has riskier cash flows. I'll quote Barrons instead of trying to write an explanation myself.

"The problem isn’t inflation expectations though. It’s math. Higher interest rates hurt high growth stocks that generate most of their cash flow far in the future. Higher rates have less of an impact on slower growth companies that are paying dividends rather than spending on the future."
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

dreambig wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 10:54 pm It is simple. NASDAQ has riskier cash flows. I'll quote Barrons instead of trying to write an explanation myself.

"The problem isn’t inflation expectations though. It’s math. Higher interest rates hurt high growth stocks that generate most of their cash flow far in the future. Higher rates have less of an impact on slower growth companies that are paying dividends rather than spending on the future."
You realize the biggest names of NASDAQ are the biggest names of S&P500 right? What you're saying is true in 2000 during the dot-com era, not in 2021.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by dreambig »

No. NASDAQ has more growth stocks overall. Anyway, you're disagreeing with the market so that should offer some pause.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

Disagreeing with how the NASDAQ moved today was the whole point from the get go. For example, selling MSFT 2% was silly and this presents a buying opportunity for those buying the dip.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky »

Asia down. Europe down.

US futures down.

Lots of red out there today.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

Sea of red!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Whakamole »

Maybe not the right thread, but since this is a free fallin' thread -

I own a stock or ETF, with multiple lots, with some having gains and some having losses, so:
Lot A: $500 gain
Lot B: $300 loss

I sell both at the same time. Does this trigger the wash sale rule?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 »

A wash sale only triggers if you repurchase the same security (or very similar) within a 60 day window in both directions of the sale date. You are only selling so no but watch out for reinvested dividends which are also a purchase.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by am »

Don’t understand why it so worrisome that the 10 yr treasury moves from really low to a bit higher and we have a nasdaq and market sell off?

My guess is some active managers of large funds trying to market time.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by namajones »

am wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:17 am Don’t understand why it so worrisome that the 10 yr treasury moves from really low to a bit higher and we have a nasdaq and market sell off?

My guess is some active managers of large funds trying to market time.
Stocks have been pumped up to ridiculous levels in great part because of TINA. As bond yields increase, TINA recedes. It won't happen all at once or at some magical crossover point in bond yields. It will happen gradually, like Chinese water torture if you're a stock investor.

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Forester »

Increasingly possible that September 2nd (4,545) was the peak. I did consider it more likely that the market would peak in November. A third quarter peak would be a rebuttal to critics who prematurely dismissed the Q3 timeframe.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by am »

namajones wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:20 am
am wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:17 am Don’t understand why it so worrisome that the 10 yr treasury moves from really low to a bit higher and we have a nasdaq and market sell off?

My guess is some active managers of large funds trying to market time.
Stocks have been pumped up to ridiculous levels in great part because of TINA. As bond yields increase, TINA recedes. It won't happen all at once or at some magical crossover point in bond yields. It will happen gradually, like Chinese water torture if you're a stock investor.

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
So if rates keep rising, then we have a lot of losses to look forward to, especially since total us market returns are so dependent on tech. Wonder what the fed will do since high rates are bad for all the debt they have on the books and bad for us market returns?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by namajones »

am wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:30 am
namajones wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:20 am
am wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:17 am Don’t understand why it so worrisome that the 10 yr treasury moves from really low to a bit higher and we have a nasdaq and market sell off?

My guess is some active managers of large funds trying to market time.
Stocks have been pumped up to ridiculous levels in great part because of TINA. As bond yields increase, TINA recedes. It won't happen all at once or at some magical crossover point in bond yields. It will happen gradually, like Chinese water torture if you're a stock investor.

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
So if rates keep rising, then we have a lot of losses to look forward to, especially since total us market returns are so dependent on tech. Wonder what the fed will do since high rates are bad for all the debt they have on the books and bad for us market returns?
No one can predict the future.

As for me, I appreciate cash as part of my portfolio.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Somethingwitty92912 »

Marseille07 wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:12 pm
anoop wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:37 pm
TheLaughingCow wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:36 pm
bugleheadd wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:57 pm Fact: we will reach ATH again
Not necessarily
Since the prediction has no timeline, it is guaranteed to be true.
1989 Nikkei: "Hello."
Yeah, because these are comparable. /s
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

am wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:30 am
namajones wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:20 am
am wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:17 am Don’t understand why it so worrisome that the 10 yr treasury moves from really low to a bit higher and we have a nasdaq and market sell off?

My guess is some active managers of large funds trying to market time.
Stocks have been pumped up to ridiculous levels in great part because of TINA. As bond yields increase, TINA recedes. It won't happen all at once or at some magical crossover point in bond yields. It will happen gradually, like Chinese water torture if you're a stock investor.

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
So if rates keep rising, then we have a lot of losses to look forward to, especially since total us market returns are so dependent on tech. Wonder what the fed will do since high rates are bad for all the debt they have on the books and bad for us market returns?
Hopefully you're diversified
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by am »

lostdog wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:34 am
am wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:30 am
namajones wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:20 am
am wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:17 am Don’t understand why it so worrisome that the 10 yr treasury moves from really low to a bit higher and we have a nasdaq and market sell off?

My guess is some active managers of large funds trying to market time.
Stocks have been pumped up to ridiculous levels in great part because of TINA. As bond yields increase, TINA recedes. It won't happen all at once or at some magical crossover point in bond yields. It will happen gradually, like Chinese water torture if you're a stock investor.

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
So if rates keep rising, then we have a lot of losses to look forward to, especially since total us market returns are so dependent on tech. Wonder what the fed will do since high rates are bad for all the debt they have on the books and bad for us market returns?
Hopefully you're diversified
As diversified as a 3 funder can be- us total market essentially a tech growth fund and us bond index a negative real return asset. Hoping international will save the day :D
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by namajones »

am wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:36 am Hoping international will save the day :D
Unlikely, as the world (and markets) are highly interdependent these days.

Sometimes, your best position is cash. Don't ever let anyone tell you there's no value in cash in a portfolio.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

am wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:36 am
lostdog wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:34 am
am wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:30 am
namajones wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:20 am
am wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:17 am Don’t understand why it so worrisome that the 10 yr treasury moves from really low to a bit higher and we have a nasdaq and market sell off?

My guess is some active managers of large funds trying to market time.
Stocks have been pumped up to ridiculous levels in great part because of TINA. As bond yields increase, TINA recedes. It won't happen all at once or at some magical crossover point in bond yields. It will happen gradually, like Chinese water torture if you're a stock investor.

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
So if rates keep rising, then we have a lot of losses to look forward to, especially since total us market returns are so dependent on tech. Wonder what the fed will do since high rates are bad for all the debt they have on the books and bad for us market returns?
Hopefully you're diversified
As diversified as a 3 funder can be- us total market essentially a tech growth fund and us bond index a negative real return asset. Hoping international will save the day :D
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by EnjoyIt »

am wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:36 am
lostdog wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:34 am
am wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:30 am
namajones wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:20 am
am wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:17 am Don’t understand why it so worrisome that the 10 yr treasury moves from really low to a bit higher and we have a nasdaq and market sell off?

My guess is some active managers of large funds trying to market time.
Stocks have been pumped up to ridiculous levels in great part because of TINA. As bond yields increase, TINA recedes. It won't happen all at once or at some magical crossover point in bond yields. It will happen gradually, like Chinese water torture if you're a stock investor.

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
So if rates keep rising, then we have a lot of losses to look forward to, especially since total us market returns are so dependent on tech. Wonder what the fed will do since high rates are bad for all the debt they have on the books and bad for us market returns?
Hopefully you're diversified
As diversified as a 3 funder can be- us total market essentially a tech growth fund and us bond index a negative real return asset. Hoping international will save the day :D
That would be a kick in the chin for all those 100% threads.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
EnjoyIt
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by EnjoyIt »

At the end of the day, the market has to have periods of down time. Otherwise too many up days leads to exorbitant enthusiasm which leads to bubbles that eventually pop. I would rather have a few downward corrections on the way up as opposed to large 30-50% bubble burst.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town »

Forester wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:24 am Increasingly possible that September 2nd (4,545) was the peak. I did consider it more likely that the market would peak in November. A third quarter peak would be a rebuttal to critics who prematurely dismissed the Q3 timeframe.
the prophet has spoken

this is it!

run for the hill!

every man for himself!
Time is the ultimate currency.
Horton
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Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2008 2:53 pm
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Horton »

Livesoft, will we get another VXUS RBD? I’m on the edge of my seat :!:
80% global equities (faith-based tilt) + 20% TIPS (LDI)
Locked