U.S. stocks in free fall

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GP813
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by GP813 »

Horton wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:04 pm
GP813 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:04 pm Some index losses were halved from today's lows going into the close, a lot of dip buyers in the last half hour. I like holding mutual funds for this very reason. I only make decisions on buying more at the end of the day besides my regular automatic contributions.
Seems like the downside of mutual funds. Would have been better off with ETFs today.
Upside for me because if I'm going to do something outside of my plan I'll do it on the close of day and usually wait after a couple of days or even weeks to assess. I didn't buy anything today. The mutual funds I hold all re-invest dividends in the next few weeks, also have auto contributions at the start of the month so for now I'm good.

My stocks want/add list didn't come close to anything buyable either in my fun account in terms of bargains.
BogleFan510
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by BogleFan510 »

We need to rename these threads (freefall, to the moon), "Closet market timers discussion" with all these rebalance trigger and dry powder discussions. Didnt even look today.
z3r0c00l
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by z3r0c00l »

$500 was sitting around in settlement fund from dividends so that's 14 or so shares of VTIAX to buy on the dip. My IP says end of the month but might as well drop it in today.
70% Global Stocks / 30% Bonds
chris319
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by chris319 »

Here's how I look at it.

Today I had a bad day in the market.

So did Warren Buffett.
Financial decisions based on emotion often turn out to be bad decisions.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

carminered2019 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:50 pm
HomerJ wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:41 pm
carminered2019 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:31 pm
HomerJ wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:27 pm
carminered2019 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:26 pm I got 15 years of living expenses ready to deploy.
Then where are your living expenses going to come from?
Won the game and kept 20x of living expenses in cash and bonds. my AA is 70/30 to 90/5, first trigger is -10% from the markets.
-10% from the markets was 9 months ago in January.
I don't remember any -10% from all time high in January 2021 but I did go all in on March low 2020 then cashed out 20x late November 2021.
November 2020, the S&P 500 was at 3500.. Getting out then was a bad move. You're not as good at timing the market as you think you are. Buying in at 4100 (a 10% correction from the highs) with your 15 years of expenses doesn't look that smart.

You already missed out on more than 10% of gains, so waiting for a 10% drop means you have less money trying to time the market.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

HomerJ wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:22 pm November 2020, the S&P 500 was at 3500.. Getting out then was a bad move. You're not as good at timing the market as you think you are. Buying in at 4100 (a 10% correction from the highs) with your 15 years of expenses doesn't look that smart.

You already missed out on more than 10% of gains, so waiting for a 10% drop means you have less money trying to time the market.
The poster said "my AA is 70/30 to 90/5." So...if they went 95/5 in March 2020, they had to unwind it at some point. November seems fine to me.

If they didn't unwind, their AA remains at 95/5 and there's no cash to deploy right now.
Last edited by Marseille07 on Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Zeno
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Zeno »

HomerJ wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:22 pm
carminered2019 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:50 pm
HomerJ wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:41 pm
carminered2019 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:31 pm
HomerJ wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:27 pm

Then where are your living expenses going to come from?
Won the game and kept 20x of living expenses in cash and bonds. my AA is 70/30 to 90/5, first trigger is -10% from the markets.
-10% from the markets was 9 months ago in January.
I don't remember any -10% from all time high in January 2021 but I did go all in on March low 2020 then cashed out 20x late November 2021.
November 2020, the S&P 500 was at 3500.. Getting out then was a bad move. You're not as good at timing the market as you think you are. Buying in at 4100 (a 10% correction from the highs) with your 15 years of expenses doesn't look that smart.

You already missed out on more than 10% of gains, so waiting for a 10% drop means you have less money trying to time the market.
+1

Maybe this forum needs a psychology thread

At the end of the day and for the average smuck like me, investing boils down to people who: (1) think they can devine the future; and (2) know they can’t. The future is unknown. I learned that lesson from reading Richard Feynman books and watching videos of his lectures decades ago.
Hyperchicken
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Hyperchicken »

Futures are in green.

September 20th will henceforth be known as the Great market crash of 2021.
jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jarjarM »

Hyperchicken wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:42 pm Futures are in green.

September 20th will henceforth be known as the Great market crash of 2021.
It wasn't even a full session crash.... RBD was over so quickly that I didn't even get to buy some :oops:
000
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

Forester wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:28 am 1998 - Russia, LTCM
1999/2000 - Dotcom peak

2021 - China, Evergrande
2022 - YOLO/StocksOnlyGoUp peak

A 2022 top vs a Q4 2021 top would call into question my credibility as a macro forecaster.
I tried to warn you....

BTW, nice signature.
000
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

Again I don't think this is The End. Futures are already green.
muffins14
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by muffins14 »

000 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:06 pm Again I don't think this is The End. Futures are already green.
Looks like long bonds were up bigly today. :wink:
Crom laughs at your Four Winds
000
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

muffins14 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:25 pm
000 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:06 pm Again I don't think this is The End. Futures are already green.
Looks like long bonds were up bigly today. :wink:
One of only two green things in my portfolio today. :shock:
rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

Is this the little dipper or the big dipper? Futures are already green.
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CurlyDave »

000 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:06 pm Again I don't think this is The End. Futures are already green.
Wait until tomorrow's close. I have seen green futures turn deep red in the actual session, and I have seen red futures turn green.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
UpperNwGuy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by UpperNwGuy »

CurlyDave wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:13 pm
000 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:06 pm Again I don't think this is The End. Futures are already green.
Wait until tomorrow's close. I have seen green futures turn deep red in the actual session, and I have seen red futures turn green.
And often it takes four or five green days to make up for one red day.
000
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

You're both absolutely correct. However this is not like March 2020 coronacrash where red days where followed by red futures.
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

000 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:48 pm You're both absolutely correct. However this is not like March 2020 coronacrash where red days where followed by red futures.
Crises don't start off screaming from the get go. We had the cases reported early Jan, the markets didn't panic then.
000
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:50 pm
000 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:48 pm You're both absolutely correct. However this is not like March 2020 coronacrash where red days where followed by red futures.
Crises don't start off screaming from the get go. We had the cases reported early Jan, the markets didn't panic then.
But as soon as the panic started it was red for days.
dan7800
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by dan7800 »

000 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:48 pm You're both absolutely correct. However this is not like March 2020 coronacrash where red days where followed by red futures.
What a bloodbath those days were
000
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

dan7800 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:54 pm
000 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:48 pm You're both absolutely correct. However this is not like March 2020 coronacrash where red days where followed by red futures.
What a bloodbath those days were
Indeed :shock:
carminered2019
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by carminered2019 »

Double post
Last edited by carminered2019 on Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
carminered2019
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by carminered2019 »

carminered2019 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:15 pm
HomerJ wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:22 pm
carminered2019 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:50 pm
HomerJ wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:41 pm
carminered2019 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:31 pm

Won the game and kept 20x of living expenses in cash and bonds. my AA is 70/30 to 90/5, first trigger is -10% from the markets.
-10% from the markets was 9 months ago in January.
I don't remember any -10% from all time high in January 2021 but I did go all in on March low 2020 then cashed out 20x late November 2021.
November 2020, the S&P 500 was at 3500.. Getting out then was a bad move. You're not as good at timing the market as you think you are. Buying in at 4100 (a 10% correction from the highs) with your 15 years of expenses doesn't look that smart.

You already missed out on more than 10% of gains, so waiting for a 10% drop means you have less money trying to time the market.
isn't rebalance a form of market timing ? I just over do it :D
livesoft
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by livesoft »

So which of you who bought yesterday during the RBD are going to sell those shares today? :twisted:
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Ed 2
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Ed 2 »

livesoft wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 5:15 am So which of you who bought yesterday during the RBD are going to sell those shares today? :twisted:
Valid question for alfa brainiacs . :beer.... crickets so far.
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Tom_T
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Tom_T »

livesoft wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 5:15 am So which of you who bought yesterday during the RBD are going to sell those shares today? :twisted:
Isn't there also the concept of a RGD?
livesoft
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by livesoft »

Tom_T wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:27 amIsn't there also the concept of a RGD?
You would have to start that concept and promote it.
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Tom_T
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Tom_T »

livesoft wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:44 am
Tom_T wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:27 amIsn't there also the concept of a RGD?
You would have to start that concept and promote it.
Oh, I thought for some reason that you also had a strategy for days when the market is way up (like 800 points.) Or do you just look for buying opportunities on RBDs?
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Cheez-It Guy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Cheez-It Guy »

livesoft wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 5:15 am So which of you who bought yesterday during the RBD are going to sell those shares today? :twisted:
I know it has been detailed elsewhere, but could you provide a refresher on the thresholds for an RBD?
Whakamole
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Whakamole »

Cheez-It Guy wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:57 am
livesoft wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 5:15 am So which of you who bought yesterday during the RBD are going to sell those shares today? :twisted:
I know it has been detailed elsewhere, but could you provide a refresher on the thresholds for an RBD?
If I can tax loss harvest :beer
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Cheez-It Guy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Cheez-It Guy »

Thanks. That's one, but I want to hear it from the originator.
Horton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Horton »

Cheez-It Guy wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 8:52 am Thanks. That's one, but I want to hear it from the originator.
Search livesoft’s posts if you want an answer.

Spoiler alert: good luck finding a precise definition.

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UpperNwGuy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by UpperNwGuy »

You'll know it when you see it.
drk
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by drk »

Cheez-It Guy wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 8:52 am Thanks. That's one, but I want to hear it from the originator.
This is based off of livesoft's most-precisely-specified criteria:
yog wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:40 pm Here's the math for those who want to play at home:
RBD Alerts
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
livesoft
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by livesoft »

drk wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 1:29 pm
Cheez-It Guy wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 8:52 am Thanks. That's one, but I want to hear it from the originator.
This is based off of livesoft's most-precisely-specified criteria:
yog wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:40 pm Here's the math for those who want to play at home:
RBD Alerts
Yes, that's the one I use first noted by climber2020 here I think:
viewtopic.php?p=5766469#p5766469
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Cheez-It Guy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Cheez-It Guy »

Thanks, all!
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

The FOMC rates decision & Chair Powell's presser tomorrow. The t-word is sure to be discussed and can move the markets.
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anon_investor
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by anon_investor »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 3:22 pm The FOMC rates decision & Chair Powell's presser tomorrow. The t-word is sure to be discussed and can move the markets.
Tax lost harvesting time?
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

anon_investor wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 3:24 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 3:22 pm The FOMC rates decision & Chair Powell's presser tomorrow. The t-word is sure to be discussed and can move the markets.
Tax lost harvesting time?
I don't think so. QQQ all green and I don't plan to sell VOO.
stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 »

tomorrow is going to be interesting... if Powell mentions the taper is it going to be a repeat of Dec 2018 when he tried it and the market promptly crashed 20%?
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anon_investor
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by anon_investor »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 3:29 pm
anon_investor wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 3:24 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 3:22 pm The FOMC rates decision & Chair Powell's presser tomorrow. The t-word is sure to be discussed and can move the markets.
Tax lost harvesting time?
I don't think so. QQQ all green and I don't plan to sell VOO.
Buy the dip for you I guess.
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 3:29 pm tomorrow is going to be interesting... if Powell mentions the taper is it going to be a repeat of Dec 2018 when he tried it and the market promptly crashed 20%?
It's impossible to predict. Since we expect Powell to absolutely tank the markets, they'll probably shoot up once he speaks.
Blue456
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Blue456 »

atdharris wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 3:41 pm
stocknoob4111 wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 3:29 pm tomorrow is going to be interesting... if Powell mentions the taper is it going to be a repeat of Dec 2018 when he tried it and the market promptly crashed 20%?
It's impossible to predict. Since we expect Powell to absolutely tank the markets, they'll probably shoot up once he speaks.
Or maybe he learned from his mistakes?
rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

This is an ugly September. I can't wait for Halloween. Maybe October performs better.
quattro73
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by quattro73 »

Down 5% off the last 18 month run is ugly?
Walobolo
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Walobolo »

quattro73 wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 6:53 pm Down 5% off the last 18 month run is ugly?
5% is a substantial market correction. A 10% drop is a crash now. The last 18 months have been weird...
livesoft
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Re: Today is a RBD

Post by livesoft »

Horton wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:26 pm [Merged here -- moderator oldcomputerguy]

In honor of livesoft, I’m selling some BND and buying some VXUS. :beer
A nice 3+% gain so far in a few days. Also BND dropped, so you avoided a loss in BND which just adds to your winnings.
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Re: Today is a RBD

Post by Horton »

livesoft wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:54 am
Horton wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:26 pm [Merged here -- moderator oldcomputerguy]

In honor of livesoft, I’m selling some BND and buying some VXUS. :beer
A nice 3+% gain so far in a few days. Also BND dropped, so you avoided a loss in BND which just adds to your winnings.
I owe you a :sharebeer
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TheDDC
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheDDC »

I call bottom on 9/21. Forester can thank me later.

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UpperNwGuy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by UpperNwGuy »

Why is this thread active tonight following two days of rally?
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