Bluce wrote: ↑Mon Jul 19, 2021 5:07 pm
Do the holdings in your new account, lumped in with your tax-deferred accounts, meet your selected overall asset allocation?
Yes, they do.
Great! It seems a lot of people (even here) don't pay any attention to it.
Seems pretty important, to me anyway.
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes
Bluce wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:28 pm
Buyers and sellers are like fish in a school: They all swim in the same direction and may suddenly change, but they don't know why. They just follow the fish in front of them.
Bluce wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:28 pm
Buyers and sellers are like fish in a school: They all swim in the same direction and may suddenly change, but they don't know why. They just follow the fish in front of them.
Bluce wrote: ↑Mon Jul 19, 2021 9:36 pm
Heh, cool idea. What software is that?
home brew, all done in google sheets with data collection scripts written in gscript (thanks for Kevin M for great samples!) and then tons of formulas and charts. It tracks everything including my retirement date!
Thoughts about having drawdown go above 100%?
By definition impossible. A drawdown is the percentage that the current balance is down from the all-time high in the past. If if a new high is achieved, all future balances are measured from that date. We don't re-write the past (I am not Marty McFly )
Ha! I was thinking about the concept of taking 5% during good years and 2% during poor years. It seems like some people like this approach to the 4% rule.
Forester wrote: ↑Mon Jul 19, 2021 12:43 pm
Probably a nervy day on the way to new highs between 4,500 & 5,000; "buy the dip" will be rewarded one last time but after summer is over there will be a Q4 2008 / Q1 2020 global liquidity crisis.
Why September (I assume this is what you mean by after summer) and not August or December?
Forester wrote: ↑Mon Jul 19, 2021 12:43 pm
Probably a nervy day on the way to new highs between 4,500 & 5,000; "buy the dip" will be rewarded one last time but after summer is over there will be a Q4 2008 / Q1 2020 global liquidity crisis.
Why September (I assume this is what you mean by after summer) and not August or December?
Not August because we need enough time to forget he ever said that. Not December because it's far enough in the future that it would dampen the IMPENDING DOOM effect.
Forester wrote: ↑Mon Jul 19, 2021 12:43 pm
Probably a nervy day on the way to new highs between 4,500 & 5,000; "buy the dip" will be rewarded one last time but after summer is over there will be a Q4 2008 / Q1 2020 global liquidity crisis.
Why September (I assume this is what you mean by after summer) and not August or December?
Because in the northern hemisphere, people return to work, summer is over, volume picks up and so on. Financial crises historically have taken place after summer.
Forester wrote: ↑Mon Jul 19, 2021 12:43 pm
Probably a nervy day on the way to new highs between 4,500 & 5,000; "buy the dip" will be rewarded one last time but after summer is over there will be a Q4 2008 / Q1 2020 global liquidity crisis.
Why September (I assume this is what you mean by after summer) and not August or December?
Because in the northern hemisphere, people return to work, summer is over, volume picks up and so on. Financial crises historically have taken place after summer.
Those factors could certainly be inflationary. But whether that correlates to a "liquidity crisis" is unknown by anyone. The Fed's objective is some "moderate" inflation, consistent with an expanding economy. Whether that can be achieved without too high inflation and subsequent higher-than-planned interest rates isn't known for certain by anyone.
Forester wrote: ↑Mon Jul 19, 2021 12:43 pm
Probably a nervy day on the way to new highs between 4,500 & 5,000; "buy the dip" will be rewarded one last time but after summer is over there will be a Q4 2008 / Q1 2020 global liquidity crisis.
Why September (I assume this is what you mean by after summer) and not August or December?
Because in the northern hemisphere, people return to work, summer is over, volume picks up and so on. Financial crises historically have taken place after summer.
“October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.”
- Mark Twain
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
We are heading for a correction, but dont know when, why, or by how much; not sure how long the will be around either. Other than that, I know everything about the market.
Forester wrote: ↑Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:35 am
Because in the northern hemisphere, people return to work, summer is over, volume picks up and so on. Financial crises historically have taken place after summer.
Forester wrote: ↑Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:35 am
Because in the northern hemisphere, people return to work, summer is over, volume picks up and so on. Financial crises historically have taken place after summer.
How deep and long of a drop are you anticipating?
S&P 500 will peak between 4,500 & 5,000 from mid-August to late September then correct by 50% to 60%. I expect to confirm the top 2 to 3 weeks after it actually happens. Probably the bear market lasts for around a year or into early 2023.
Forester wrote: ↑Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:35 am
Because in the northern hemisphere, people return to work, summer is over, volume picks up and so on. Financial crises historically have taken place after summer.
How deep and long of a drop are you anticipating?
S&P 500 will peak between 4,500 & 5,000 from mid-August to late September then correct by 50% to 60%. I expect to confirm the top 2 to 3 weeks after it actually happens. Probably the bear market lasts for around a year or into early 2023.
Forrester on Jan 27th
Final official prediction. I will not post in this thread again if I am proved mistaken.
S&P 500 - has topped for the short & medium term. Not going above 3,800.
z3r0c00l wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 9:11 am
Fibonacci rapproachment in the monthly Geiger–Müller tube hints at SP falling by 50% at some point in the next 1 to 480 months.
So - the S&P will fall 50% between now and July 2061 (when I’ll be 107 years old) -
Sounds like it’s time for me to load up on ammo and canned beans, and hunker down in my foxhole to await the inevitable stock market disaster.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
z3r0c00l wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 9:11 am
Fibonacci rapproachment in the monthly Geiger–Müller tube hints at SP falling by 50% at some point in the next 1 to 480 months.
So - the S&P will fall 50% between now and July 2061 (when I’ll be 107 years old) -
Sounds like it’s time for me to load up on ammo and canned beans, and hunker down in my foxhole to await the inevitable stock market disaster.
Can't say with certainty if it will fall 50% before 2061 but the odds are that it could. (By the way in the process of being silly, that is actually an important date, the return of comet Halley.)
Forester wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 11:45 pm
S&P 500 will peak between 4,500 & 5,000 from mid-August to late September then correct by 50% to 60%. I expect to confirm the top 2 to 3 weeks after it actually happens. Probably the bear market lasts for around a year or into early 2023.
Forester wrote: ↑Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:35 am
Because in the northern hemisphere, people return to work, summer is over, volume picks up and so on. Financial crises historically have taken place after summer.
How deep and long of a drop are you anticipating?
S&P 500 will peak between 4,500 & 5,000 from mid-August to late September then correct by 50% to 60%. I expect to confirm the top 2 to 3 weeks after it actually happens. Probably the bear market lasts for around a year or into early 2023.
Such a drastic selloff would imply substantial amounts of funds shifting into other asset classes. Where do you think the money will go? Bonds?
Semantics wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 5:53 pm
Such a drastic selloff would imply substantial amounts of funds shifting into other asset classes. Where do you think the money will go? Bonds?
It doesn't have to go anywhere. Security prices are set by marginal trading. A trade of an existing security does not change the amount of money "in" the stock market. If the underlying is known to be fundamentally worth less, the price will be less assuming efficient markets.
Semantics wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 5:53 pm
Such a drastic selloff would imply substantial amounts of funds shifting into other asset classes. Where do you think the money will go? Bonds?
It doesn't have to go anywhere. Security prices are set by marginal trading. A trade of an existing security does not change the amount of money "in" the stock market. If the underlying is known to be fundamentally worth less, the price will be less assuming efficient markets.
All security prices are not entirely set by margin trading. For such a drastic selloff to occur, of "50-60%", many retail investors would be selling actual long positions, not only options traders or short sellers, trading on margin. A drastic selloff would require more selling than that done by habitually frequent traders.
runcyc wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 8:55 pm
All security prices are not entirely set by margin trading. For such a drastic selloff to occur, of "50-60%", many retail investors would be selling actual long positions, not only options traders or short sellers, trading on margin. A drastic selloff would require more selling than that done by habitually frequent traders.
So if <event> happens that makes the fundamental value of <stock> worth 50% less, marginal buyers aren't going to immediately set their bid to that?
Why would they pay more than it's now worth???
Gaps happen all the time with individual issues and can happen with broad indices when a systemic factor changes.
runcyc wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 8:55 pm
All security prices are not entirely set by margin trading. For such a drastic selloff to occur, of "50-60%", many retail investors would be selling actual long positions, not only options traders or short sellers, trading on margin. A drastic selloff would require more selling than that done by habitually frequent traders.
So if <event> happens that makes the fundamental value of <stock> worth 50% less, marginal buyers aren't going to immediately set their bid to that?
Why would they pay more than it's now worth???
Gaps happen all the time with individual issues and can happen with broad indices when a systemic factor changes.
Event will happen that sets the value to 15%-20% less, then a bunch of people will panic and sell at any price, completely ignoring fundamentals.
Come on, you've been around long enough to see this in action.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
HomerJ wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 9:07 pm
Event will happen that sets the value to 15%-20% less, then a bunch of people will panic and sell at any price, completely ignoring fundamentals.
Come on, you've been around long enough to see this in action.
That is a likely situation I suppose. But things like the 1929 crash weren't just to due to "panic". Bad macroeconomic news broke the bubble and stocks quickly (for that era) moved to more correct pricings. In the modern internet era, something like the 1929 crash could happen in three days.
Changes in market cap can happen without the money going somewhere. The market cap value can just literally be destroyed by valuation change. For every secondary trade of stock (does not include IPOs, new issues, etc.), there is a buyer and a seller. The buyer puts X dollars "in" and the seller gets X dollars "out". No money enters or leaves the stocks market.
000 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 9:17 pm
Changes in market cap can happen without the money going somewhere. The market cap value can just literally be destroyed by valuation change. For every secondary trade of stock (does not include IPOs, new issues, etc.), there is a buyer and a seller. The buyer puts X dollars "in" and the seller gets X dollars "out". No money enters or leaves the stocks market.
Recent example of an event (sudden regulatory change) that reduced market cap value without the money going "somewhere":
Robot Monster wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 10:58 am
Backed the truck up a little on Google stock. 10 shares.
Non native English speaker here, what does this mean?
I've seen the phrase a lot 'backed up the truck today'.
It means you back up your truck to the loading dock and load the truck with goods.
In this case, it means buy stocks. And a lot of stocks since you are filling up your entire truck.
It's supposed to mean that you are finally spending a LOT of cash you had sitting on the side because it's a good buying opportunity.
Some people around here say it even when stocks are going up, which doesn't make much sense. It's usually a phrase about loading up on stocks when they are down and cheaper.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59