Anyone Hitting Their Bands This Week?

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Noobvestor
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Anyone Hitting Their Bands This Week?

Post by Noobvestor »

Just curious - extended treasuries up 10%, intermediates ~2%, market down 5% in the last week - I assume that's tripping as-needed rebalancing for some other Bogleheads, too (I just added to equities personally).

Here is the last month for anyone not watching things - and I also suspect some people may *not* be rebalancing due to market worries, so am curious about that as well (though staying the course myself ... and half hoping stocks continue to go on sale!): http://quote.morningstar.com/fund/chart ... %2C0%22%7D
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bob90245
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Re: Anyone Hitting Their Bands This Week?

Post by bob90245 »

Noobvestor wrote:Anyone Hitting Their Bands This Week?
I can't tell you. I don't peek mid-week. So I don't know if my trigger bands were breached. If this thread is still active when I make my once-of-week check on Friday, I'll let you know.
Ignore the market noise. Keep to your rebalancing schedule whether that is semi-annual, annual or trigger bands.
Sidney
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Post by Sidney »

No, not even close. Was well above mid-point of band and drifting back to target.
I always wanted to be a procrastinator.
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mcrunyan
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Post by mcrunyan »

Yep. TIPS band tripped. And it has only been a month since the last rebalance.
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Post by letsgobobby »

no, I drifted down from 57% stocks to 53%. Nothing to do on that end.
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Noobvestor
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Post by Noobvestor »

mcrunyan wrote:Yep. TIPS band tripped. And it has only been a month since the last rebalance.
Yeah, those are my craziest holding right now too on the upside (+5% in the last month), while SCV is (unsurprisingly) taking the biggest hit (-7.5% same period)
"In the absence of clarity, diversification is the only logical strategy" -= Larry Swedroe
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Post by foxfirev5 »

With an equity target AA of 45% I'm not really close. I've gone from a little less than 47% to a little more than 44%. Bonds are up but I was a little low due to a build up of cash holdings
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Post by Aptenodytes »

Nowhere close.
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Post by jon-nyc »

Sold some GLD yesterday as my +10% band was hit.
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Post by gkaplan »

Not close.
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Post by phositadc »

My gold and LT treasuries (TLT) bands are both very close to being tripped. Sad thing is, I only created these positions about 8 months ago, so if they are tripped, and I do sell, it will be short-term gains.

Not sure if I am better off just following my IPS and selling, or waiting 4 more months for these things to become LT gains, and seeing if I still need to sell at that point.

I guess I will sell gold if it is tripped since collectibles are 28% LT tax rate anyways, which is not really much lower than my marginal tax rate anyways. Still debating TLT though.
neverknow
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Re: Anyone Hitting Their Bands This Week?

Post by neverknow »

Noobvestor wrote:(though staying the course myself ... and half hoping stocks continue to go on sale!):
I am blindly following the plan I made in Jan 2011. I have been in treasuries of all sorts (even through Bill Gross's big words) and the plan was for around July 31st to move out of those Treasuries and into equities. As it has not been all at once, but a little each day for a week or so now -- my timing could have been better.

July 31st - after QE2, and before this years budget resolution. Or that was my thinking.

Investing is always about goals, time horizon, and risk. My goal is to match inflation (before taxes). Until yesterday, I was (and am confident before the year is out, I will again).

Mostly I am in paying equities:
VDIGX (dividend growth)
VVIAX (value index)
VOX (telecom)
XLU (utilities)
VEUSX (Europe - earnings yield is good, currency will eventually straighten itself out - somehow)

I backed up the truck on WM (Waste Management). I had sold it as fully valued around $37.70 -- once it dropped so its yield was 4% (now better) I have been buying (2 lots, so far, in 5% drop increments). Trash does not go out of style. --- But no one believe me on this, some of the press looks really awful.

That gives me about 24% equities, coincidentally the same dollar amount yet to loose, as fall 2008. I also have a 10% dolop of Permanent Portfolio (PRPFX)

Fully 1/3 is out of the way in laddered CD's. Another 3rd is either in directly held very long TIPs (2032, 2040) or directly held zero's (big chunk at 2026 - couldn't resist a yield that gave me a double in 15 years). I have been selling shorter durations of both TIPs and zero's (up to about 2020). I do have a wee bit of Vanguards long zero's EDV

I did speculate on 2 lots of 20 shares of RIMM -- this is a Command and Control thing of secure communications to my mind, and not a consumer product at all. PE of 4 is mighty inexpensive.

And yesterday, I've been watching - I picked up 20 forever shares of WAB. We (noobvestor and myself) once wrote about knowing the future before the future gets here? And I spoke of a product I (my personal company, my patent) was pitching back in 1997 --- not that anyone would believe me). Well, WAB is the player. They built it. I believe it is necessary for our future world. I was just waiting for a better price, because even yesterday -- it is mighty pricy. Enough so, only 20 shares is what I could buy, hold and ignore.

This oddball investment plan of mine is based on my goals, time horizon, and need for, or lack of, need for - risk .... and is probably not suitable for anyone, but me.

In that regard, I do see myself as "staying the course" as it is the course I mapped out for myself Jan 2011 (to be implemented now).
neverknow
Sidney
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Post by Sidney »

Trash does not go out of style.
Trash may not go out of style but, at least in my area, there seems to be low barriers to competition. There are many large and small trash haulers competing for business so the rates are quite low.
I always wanted to be a procrastinator.
neverknow
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Post by neverknow »

Sidney wrote:
Trash does not go out of style.
Trash may not go out of style but, at least in my area, there seems to be low barriers to competition. There are many large and small trash haulers competing for business so the rates are quite low.
Oh, I agree. I live rural, and the transfer station is a little closer then what I would like, if I had been thinking about it. In some rural homes I've lived at - I didn't bother at all, as the driveway was too long.

I think ... not sure, but the key to disappointing earnings was not managing well, the energy surcharge -- which can happen to any business, big or small.

I have owned this company for many years. It matches well my assets and liabilities. For about the cost of a used pickup - someone else does the work, and quarterly, I am paid 30% more then I owe. What's not to like? (that's tongue in cheek humor, folks)

More so, if I go to the big city street fairs / events ... I get a kick out of the rows of port-a-potties bearing the logo -- always point, and say "I am an owner of that company". And as any good owner might ought to do, I do go round to make sure the event is clean, picked up, port-a-potties stocked, etc.

Maybe it's just a bit of humor I like (and it's dividend matches well, my liability).
neverknow
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Jay69
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Post by Jay69 »

Getting really close to my bands, going to buy a litltle today as its the first week of the month.
"Out of clutter, find simplicity” Albert Einstein
natureexplorer
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Post by natureexplorer »

Sidney wrote:No, not even close.
Same here. Between new money, interest, and dividends, it takes a lot more for me to reach my target bands. And this is despite my entire 401k contribution continuing to go towards fixed income.

Furthermore, I have a slow rebalancing procedure in place where even if I am outside my target bands I don't just sell a lump sum of fixed income and buy a lump sum of equities.

I like to let things ride.
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Post by natureexplorer »

chrikenn wrote:My gold and LT treasuries (TLT) bands are both very close to being tripped. Sad thing is, I only created these positions about 8 months ago, so if they are tripped, and I do sell, it will be short-term gains.

Not sure if I am better off just following my IPS and selling, or waiting 4 more months for these things to become LT gains, and seeing if I still need to sell at that point.

I guess I will sell gold if it is tripped since collectibles are 28% LT tax rate anyways, which is not really much lower than my marginal tax rate anyways. Still debating TLT though.
Why would you hold any of these in taxable? For what it is worth, maybe you can harvest some losses to offset these gains - if you do decide to realize them.
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Post by Jay69 »

My bands tell me to buy VXUS, the way they are still tanking today I may just hold for antother day!
"Out of clutter, find simplicity” Albert Einstein
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Post by Ice-9 »

Ah, every once in a while, Google Finance has some technical issue for a day or two delivering information for one of my funds to my rebalancing spreadsheet, and one missing number throws the whole spreadsheet into displaying #N/A for all the percentages. Today's problematic fund is the Admiral REIT fund.

I could try to work it out manually, but I don't have much free time. I think I'll wait until tomorrow and see if Google has fixed itself.
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Re: Anyone Hitting Their Bands This Week?

Post by HomerJ »

bob90245 wrote:
Noobvestor wrote:Anyone Hitting Their Bands This Week?
I can't tell you. I don't peek mid-week. So I don't know if my trigger bands were breached. If this thread is still active when I make my once-of-week check on Friday, I'll let you know.
I usually check once a month... I'll check tonight... I might be close... I'm sure it's time to change new contributions to 100% stocks.
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Post by phositadc »

natureexplorer wrote:Why would you hold any of these in taxable? For what it is worth, maybe you can harvest some losses to offset these gains - if you do decide to realize them.
Hah, I was just waiting for someone to ask that question.

I hold them in taxable because 99+% of my assets are taxable (I've never had a job that had a 401k, and my IRAs are a tiny fraction of my assets), and I decided despite the unfavorable tax consequences of holding them in taxable, I liked the way they function in a portfolio. So I decided not to let the "tax tail" wag the overall-AA dog.

FWIW, TLT is 10% and gold is only 5% of the portfolio, so we aren't talking enormous tax consequences regardless :)

Edit: OH, and yes, if things continue to go the way that they are going, I will certainly be able to offset the gains with losses, so hopefully I will have no tax consequences after all.
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Post by natureexplorer »

chrikenn wrote:
natureexplorer wrote:Why would you hold any of these in taxable? For what it is worth, maybe you can harvest some losses to offset these gains - if you do decide to realize them.
Hah, I was just waiting for someone to ask that question.

I hold them in taxable because 99+% of my assets are taxable (I've never had a job that had a 401k, and my IRAs are a tiny fraction of my assets), and I decided despite the unfavorable tax consequences of holding them in taxable, I liked the way they function in a portfolio. So I decided not to let the "tax tail" wag the overall-AA dog.

FWIW, TLT is 10% and gold is only 5% of the portfolio, so we aren't talking enormous tax consequences regardless :)

Edit: OH, and yes, if things continue to go the way that they are going, I will certainly be able to offset the gains with losses, so hopefully I will have no tax consequences after all.
So presumably you also hold munis and CDs? I'd be curious to see your entire portfolio to understand how you deal with tax efficiency. There are many ways to increase the tax efficiency of a portfolio. At least TLT doesn't distribute capital gains in contrast to Vanguard's EDV - I believe.

I guess we are drifting from the primary thread now...
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Post by jasonlitka »

No, about two weeks ago I was heavy on stocks (this was partially my fault, my 401k contribution suffered a typo last time I adjusted the investment options) and looking to rebalance but never got around to it. The market has since corrected that imbalance for me.
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Post by archbish99 »

New money is entirely to stocks (and has been for a few paychecks now); bonds are heavy enough to make me shift my contributions, but nowhere near triggering a rebalance.
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Post by john94549 »

My preferred allocation in my Schwab SEP-IRA trading account is 40% equities/60% cash. Mr. Market is nudging me closer to my re-balance band (i.e., where I would buy more equities from my cash stash), but he refuses thus far to tank. Just to bleed. As for my "real money" (Vanguard IRA) and my wife's, not even close yet. We're actually still a bit up from the end of last year, even with the recent swoon (credit some nice returns on fixed-income for that).
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Post by lm »

Ice-9 wrote:Ah, every once in a while, Google Finance has some technical issue for a day or two delivering information for one of my funds to my rebalancing spreadsheet, and one missing number throws the whole spreadsheet into displaying #N/A for all the percentages.
I am curious: how do you import Google Finance data into a spreadsheet? Are those the real-time quotes?
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Post by rokidtoo »

Nope. This market turmoil has actually pushed my allocations back to their targets.-----Jim
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Post by Noobvestor »

natureexplorer wrote:
chrikenn wrote:
natureexplorer wrote:Why would you hold any of these in taxable? For what it is worth, maybe you can harvest some losses to offset these gains - if you do decide to realize them.
Hah, I was just waiting for someone to ask that question.

I hold them in taxable because 99+% of my assets are taxable (I've never had a job that had a 401k, and my IRAs are a tiny fraction of my assets), and I decided despite the unfavorable tax consequences of holding them in taxable, I liked the way they function in a portfolio. So I decided not to let the "tax tail" wag the overall-AA dog.

FWIW, TLT is 10% and gold is only 5% of the portfolio, so we aren't talking enormous tax consequences regardless :)

Edit: OH, and yes, if things continue to go the way that they are going, I will certainly be able to offset the gains with losses, so hopefully I will have no tax consequences after all.
So presumably you also hold munis and CDs? I'd be curious to see your entire portfolio to understand how you deal with tax efficiency. There are many ways to increase the tax efficiency of a portfolio. At least TLT doesn't distribute capital gains in contrast to Vanguard's EDV - I believe.

I guess we are drifting from the primary thread now...
No worries re:drift.

I too am a bit puzzled by this portfolio in taxable - *particularly* with active rebalancing. If I held something similar, all in taxable too, I would probably avoid rebalancing the gold unless it were terribly far overweight (easier to add if underweight, of course).

I hope you've run the tax calculations - I probably prioritize taxation issues less than the typical Boglehead (for example: holding SCV in taxable) but even to me your port looks like it might not be able to make up for those tax issues :s
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Post by Ice-9 »

lm wrote:
Ice-9 wrote:Ah, every once in a while, Google Finance has some technical issue for a day or two delivering information for one of my funds to my rebalancing spreadsheet, and one missing number throws the whole spreadsheet into displaying #N/A for all the percentages.
I am curious: how do you import Google Finance data into a spreadsheet? Are those the real-time quotes?
The quotes are updated at the time you open the spreadsheet. You can do it either with Excel or Google Docs Spreadsheet. Either way, within your spreadsheet you can set up two sheets, (1) that collects the data from Google or Yahoo finance for each fund and add columns for you to enter # of shares and automatically calculate balance and (2) a second sheet that refers to the balance of each item in the funds sheet to calculate the % each asset class is of your total portfolio.

If you want to get fancy, you can even use conditional formatting to highlight the cell of a particular asset class when the % of your portfolio goes outside of your rebalancing bands.

Anyway here are directions to import the quotes via Google Docs spreadsheet:
http://docs.google.com/support/bin/answ ... wer=155178

And via Excel:
http://www.ehow.com/how_2027266_stock-prices-excel.html
Last edited by Ice-9 on Wed Aug 03, 2011 3:05 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Post by newport1 »

Big buyer of VOO, VTV, and VGK this afternoon. Simply following my spreadsheet's instructions.
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Post by Random Musings »

No bands hit in a while.......

RM
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Post by SSSS »

All my stuff's still within 1% of target, but somehow due to rounding it's all totaling to 102%. I've seen 99 and 101 a few times, but this is a first.
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Post by serbeer »

I re-directed future 401K contributions from bonds into stock even though I am still within 1% in all classes across the board
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Post by lm »

Ice-9 wrote:
lm wrote: I am curious: how do you import Google Finance data into a spreadsheet? Are those the real-time quotes?
Anyway here are directions to import the quotes via Google Docs spreadsheet:
http://docs.google.com/support/bin/answ ... wer=155178

And via Excel:
http://www.ehow.com/how_2027266_stock-prices-excel.html
That's very interesting. Thanks for sharing!
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Post by Swamproot »

Ice-9 wrote:Ah, every once in a while, Google Finance has some technical issue for a day or two delivering information for one of my funds to my rebalancing spreadsheet, and one missing number throws the whole spreadsheet into displaying #N/A for all the percentages. Today's problematic fund is the Admiral REIT fund.

I could try to work it out manually, but I don't have much free time. I think I'll wait until tomorrow and see if Google has fixed itself.
I've noticed the same thing happen every once in awhile. Its almost always REIT funds. I wonder why?

Its common enough that I keep an otherwise unused part of the spreadsheet as a placeholder for the price of REIT funds in one column, and the GoogleFinance function for the price in an adjacent cell, and in the spreadsheet proper point to that cell, usually.

The very first column of my Google spreadsheet, I use the Hyperlink function to go to Yahoo's page:
=hyperlink("http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=VGSIX", "VGSIX")

When it does this I use the link to quickly get to the page with the price, and put it in the placeholder cell. Then I switch the Price cell for the REIT to point to the placeholder instead of the usually ok GoggleFinance function.

Of course, I have to remember to change it back, but a little color coding helps remind me its temporary. Its a little work, but at least I don't have to wait until GoogleFinance stops crapping its pants.
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Post by Cut-Throat »

I'm in Vanguards Target Funds, so I don't do anything. Which has been my best move over the last 30 years. :D
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Post by phositadc »

natureexplorer wrote:
chrikenn wrote:
natureexplorer wrote:Why would you hold any of these in taxable? For what it is worth, maybe you can harvest some losses to offset these gains - if you do decide to realize them.
Hah, I was just waiting for someone to ask that question.

I hold them in taxable because 99+% of my assets are taxable (I've never had a job that had a 401k, and my IRAs are a tiny fraction of my assets), and I decided despite the unfavorable tax consequences of holding them in taxable, I liked the way they function in a portfolio. So I decided not to let the "tax tail" wag the overall-AA dog.

FWIW, TLT is 10% and gold is only 5% of the portfolio, so we aren't talking enormous tax consequences regardless :)

Edit: OH, and yes, if things continue to go the way that they are going, I will certainly be able to offset the gains with losses, so hopefully I will have no tax consequences after all.
So presumably you also hold munis and CDs? I'd be curious to see your entire portfolio to understand how you deal with tax efficiency. There are many ways to increase the tax efficiency of a portfolio. At least TLT doesn't distribute capital gains in contrast to Vanguard's EDV - I believe.

I guess we are drifting from the primary thread now...
My portfolio is a modified Swedroe-esque minimize-fat-left-tails type portfolio. Here's the breakdown:

10% TSM
5% SCV
5% REIT Index

10% Emerging Markets
5% Int'l Developed Large
5% Int'l Developed Small

5% Gold
5% PCRIX -- all in tax deferred

20% Intermediate-term muni (BMBIX)
10% Long-term Treasury (TLT)
10% Intermediate-term Treasury
10% Long-term TIPS (LTPZ)

The typical Boglehead would probably condemn this portfolio as ridiculously tax-inefficient b/c of the REITS and treasuries. And I wouldn't dispute that. However, I did a comprehensive calculation and determined that at least for the past 30-40 years, the diversification benefits of holding REITS and treasuries (as compared to not holding REITS and holding 100% munis) far outweighed the tax detriments. Yeah, backtesting... I know the pitfalls. But for me, the extreme diversity that the portfolio provides allows me to sleep far easier at night than if I eliminated my REITS and converted all of my treasuries to munis (and I might add -- this past week is a prime example of why that is true. My portfolio is hardly down at all thanks to gold and treasuries).

Oh, and I would add that I also aggressively tax-loss harvest. That helps a little bit (but obviously does not help with interest payments from the treasuries).

Edit: And I would also mention, I'm in my late 20s, and due to inheritances have a low 7-figure portfolio. So reducing volatility and max-drawdown were far more important to my portfolio design than was eking out an extra 0.5% return by reducing my tax-cost ratio :)
Last edited by phositadc on Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by stevewolfe »

Swamproot wrote:
Ice-9 wrote:Ah, every once in a while, Google Finance has some technical issue for a day or two delivering information for one of my funds to my rebalancing spreadsheet, and one missing number throws the whole spreadsheet into displaying #N/A for all the percentages. Today's problematic fund is the Admiral REIT fund.

I could try to work it out manually, but I don't have much free time. I think I'll wait until tomorrow and see if Google has fixed itself.
I've noticed the same thing happen every once in awhile. Its almost always REIT funds. I wonder why?
It's also doing it today for T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Growth (RPMGX) and throwing my whole spreadsheet off as well...

A month or so ago it was updating the data a day behind (or at least many hours after close). Too bad, Google docs is fantastic otherwise.
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Post by Default User BR »

Hardly. Major asset class breakdown now and last time I checked in July:

Code: Select all

Asset Class      7-1     8-3   Target
Domestic stock  42.34%  41.63%  42%
Intl stock      17.97%  17.95%  18%
Fixed income    39.69%  40.42%  40%
Total          100.00% 100.00% 100%


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Post by grabiner »

It actually takes a major change to hit a boundary. I am 90% stock and 10% bonds, and my rebalancing limit is 12.5% bonds. To hit that limit, I would need my stock allocation to drop from nine times the bond allocation to seven times, which is a 22% drop for just a 2.5% deviation. The only time I actually hit that limit was in 2008.
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Post by Ice-9 »

Nice tip, Swamproot! Thank you!

Before I could use that tip, though, Google fixed itself. I now see that I haven't hit my rebalancing bands yet, but they're getting close. Target 70/30 equity/bonds, and I'm at 67.71%/32.29%. The most drifted asset class is TIPS, target of 15% and currently at 16.55%.
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Post by Aptenodytes »

Aptenodytes wrote:Nowhere close.
OK today I'm close -- close enough to sell bonds and buy equities. Where's that mixed emotion emoticon when you need it?
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Post by Chuck T »

I was getting close before this week. Too much in stock funds. Would have needed to sell stocks and buy bond funds. Today took care of that for me. Guess I am set for the next market runup.
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Post by Raging Mage »

Not yet, since I'm only testing my portfolio AA quarterly to see if my stock/bond allocation has deviated by 5% or more. (My next rebalancing date is in mid-September.)
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Post by neverknow »

neverknow wrote:
Sidney wrote:
Trash does not go out of style.
Trash may not go out of style but, at least in my area, there seems to be low barriers to competition. There are many large and small trash haulers competing for business so the rates are quite low.
Oh, I agree. I live rural, and the transfer station is a little closer then what I would like, if I had been thinking about it. In some rural homes I've lived at - I didn't bother at all, as the driveway was too long.

I think ... not sure, but the key to disappointing earnings was not managing well, the energy surcharge -- which can happen to any business, big or small.

I have owned this company for many years. It matches well my assets and liabilities. For about the cost of a used pickup - someone else does the work, and quarterly, I am paid 30% more then I owe. What's not to like? (that's tongue in cheek humor, folks)

More so, if I go to the big city street fairs / events ... I get a kick out of the rows of port-a-potties bearing the logo -- always point, and say "I am an owner of that company". And as any good owner might ought to do, I do go round to make sure the event is clean, picked up, port-a-potties stocked, etc.

Maybe it's just a bit of humor I like (and it's dividend matches well, my liability).
neverknow
I still like my WM, so no change. I am happy holding, and having my trash bill paid by dividends --- but regarding "low barrier to entry"

I just had a flash back memory to 1978. We had no trash pick up (and we lived in town, a town of about 100,000). Instead we stacked it in trash bags in the detached garage. I know another family that stacked theirs on their screened in back porch. I mean, this stuff got stacked to the ceiling ... then the rats and mice would come. What was the problem? No problem. Simply -- no money. We also had no telephone service. And the oven didn't work (it is hard to bake a birthday cake, without an oven).

This part of America today clocks in at 15% living below the poverty level -- I have not a clue about back then, except -- it never occurred to us that we were poor. Our neighbors waved when we walked by, and best summer time fun was a tractor tire inner tube, inflated and launched in a river with a 6 pack roped to you.

No trash service is less expensive then even the best competition. --- Eventually we would load up the old pickup and haul the junk off. As a current song goes -- it was a different world (back then, when we were boys and girls). We didn't think this was odd, or yucky -- but obviously were aware the rodents were a bad thing.

I still like my WM. I do not see it priced as a growth company, but steady value. Trash doesn't go out of style. 4.5% yield.
neverknow
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ThePrune
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Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 9:38 am
Location: Midland, MI

Post by ThePrune »

I sat down last night and calculated how far I'm from rebalancing into equities. I'm currently only 2% below overall equity target, and I use a 5% band (50% +/- 5% total equities). It looks like the S&P 500 would need to fall somewhat below 1100 to trigger my rebalance.
Investment skill is often just luck in sheep's clothing.
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