Bonds are doing their job so far

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
User avatar
Topic Author
HomerJ
Posts: 21281
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by HomerJ »

Vanguard Total Stock Market Index - $10,000 invested on 1/3/2022 is worth $9,095. Down 9% in 3 weeks.
Vanguard Total Bond Market Index - $10,000 invested on 1/3/2022 is worth $9,911. Down 0.9% in 3 weeks.

Doing their job.

So far.

Guess we'll see what happens going forward.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
000
Posts: 8211
Joined: Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:04 am

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by 000 »

Keep on soaring not dropping as much, bonds!

:sharebeer
7eight9
Posts: 2406
Joined: Fri May 17, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by 7eight9 »

Cash is doing a better job.
I guess it all could be much worse. | They could be warming up my hearse.
BernardShakey
Posts: 1147
Joined: Tue Jun 25, 2019 10:52 pm

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by BernardShakey »

7eight9 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:01 am Cash is doing a better job.
Liking my Stable Value fund these days....
An important key to investing is having a well-calibrated sense of your future regret.
User avatar
anon_investor
Posts: 15122
Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:43 pm

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by anon_investor »

My I Bonds are up YTD.
User avatar
Topic Author
HomerJ
Posts: 21281
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by HomerJ »

7eight9 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:01 am Cash is doing a better job.
Heh, point taken. :)
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
User avatar
whodidntante
Posts: 13114
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:11 pm
Location: outside the echo chamber

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by whodidntante »

Bonds look a lot better if you ignore inflation, so let's do that! And we can also assume that interest rate risk probably won't hurt much. All aboard the confirmation bias train! Choo-choo! :twisted:
KlangFool
Posts: 31525
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:35 pm

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by KlangFool »

7eight9 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:01 am Cash is doing a better job.
I disagreed.

On 1/21/2021, the stock market dropped about 2%. The bond went up about by 0.4%. My 60/40 portfolio dropped 0.73%.

If that 40% was cash, my 60/40 portfolio would had dropped 1.2% (60% of 2%).

The bond did a better job.

KlangFool
30% VWENX | 16% VFWAX/VTIAX | 14.5% VTSAX | 19.5% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX| 30% Wellington 50% 3-funds 20% Mini-Larry
User avatar
JoMoney
Posts: 16260
Joined: Tue Jul 23, 2013 5:31 am

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by JoMoney »

KlangFool wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:17 am
7eight9 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:01 am Cash is doing a better job.
I disagreed.

On 1/21/2021, the stock market dropped about 2%. The bond went up about by 0.4%. My 60/40 portfolio dropped 0.73%.

If that 40% was cash, my 60/40 portfolio would had dropped 1.2% (60% of 2%).

The bond did a better job.

KlangFool
There's something wrong with your numbers, or at least your leaving out crucial info.

If your portfolio was $100
60% or $60 in stocks that dropped 2% (-$1.20)
40% or $40 in bonds that went up .4% +$0.16

That's an aggregate of your $100 portfolio dropping to $98.96
Or -1.04% not -0.73%

:confused
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
Tamalak
Posts: 1989
Joined: Fri May 06, 2016 2:29 pm

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by Tamalak »

I thought the essential draw of bonds was not the lower risk/reward but poor correlation with stocks. I'm not seeing that poor correlation..
59Gibson
Posts: 1386
Joined: Mon Dec 07, 2020 7:41 am

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by 59Gibson »

JoMoney wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:36 am
KlangFool wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:17 am
7eight9 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:01 am Cash is doing a better job.
I disagreed.

On 1/21/2021, the stock market dropped about 2%. The bond went up about by 0.4%. My 60/40 portfolio dropped 0.73%.

If that 40% was cash, my 60/40 portfolio would had dropped 1.2% (60% of 2%).

The bond did a better job.

KlangFool
There's something wrong with your numbers, or at least your leaving out crucial info.

If your portfolio was $100
60% or $60 in stocks that dropped 2% (-$1.20)
40% or $40 in bonds that went up .4% +$0.16

That's an aggregate of your $100 portfolio dropping to $98.96
Or -1.04% not -0.73%

:confused
True. And That's only a 1 day comparison, OP is going back to 1/3/22. Cash would have been better than bonds
User avatar
Sandtrap
Posts: 19591
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2016 5:32 pm
Location: Hawaii No Ka Oi - white sandy beaches, N. Arizona 1 mile high.

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by Sandtrap »

KlangFool wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:17 am
7eight9 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:01 am Cash is doing a better job.
I disagreed.

On 1/21/2021, the stock market dropped about 2%. The bond went up about by 0.4%. My 60/40 portfolio dropped 0.73%.

If that 40% was cash, my 60/40 portfolio would had dropped 1.2% (60% of 2%).

The bond did a better job.

KlangFool
Thanks for the real life comparison.

j :D
Wiki Bogleheads Wiki: Everything You Need to Know
KlangFool
Posts: 31525
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:35 pm

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by KlangFool »

JoMoney wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:36 am
KlangFool wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:17 am
7eight9 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:01 am Cash is doing a better job.
I disagreed.

On 1/21/2021, the stock market dropped about 2%. The bond went up about by 0.4%. My 60/40 portfolio dropped 0.73%.

If that 40% was cash, my 60/40 portfolio would had dropped 1.2% (60% of 2%).

The bond did a better job.

KlangFool
There's something wrong with your numbers, or at least your leaving out crucial info.

If your portfolio was $100
60% or $60 in stocks that dropped 2% (-$1.20)
40% or $40 in bonds that went up .4% +$0.16

That's an aggregate of your $100 portfolio dropping to $98.96
Or -1.04% not -0.73%

:confused
JoMoney,

You should look at my signature section and look at my exact 60/40 portfolio holding. My 40% bond is not 100% VBTLX.

"40% VWENX | 12.5% VFWAX/VTIAX | 11.5% VTSAX | 16% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX"

KlangFool
30% VWENX | 16% VFWAX/VTIAX | 14.5% VTSAX | 19.5% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX| 30% Wellington 50% 3-funds 20% Mini-Larry
KlangFool
Posts: 31525
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:35 pm

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by KlangFool »

59Gibson wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:40 am
JoMoney wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:36 am
KlangFool wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:17 am
7eight9 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:01 am Cash is doing a better job.
I disagreed.

On 1/21/2021, the stock market dropped about 2%. The bond went up about by 0.4%. My 60/40 portfolio dropped 0.73%.

If that 40% was cash, my 60/40 portfolio would had dropped 1.2% (60% of 2%).

The bond did a better job.

KlangFool
There's something wrong with your numbers, or at least your leaving out crucial info.

If your portfolio was $100
60% or $60 in stocks that dropped 2% (-$1.20)
40% or $40 in bonds that went up .4% +$0.16

That's an aggregate of your $100 portfolio dropping to $98.96
Or -1.04% not -0.73%

:confused
True. And That's only a 1 day comparison, OP is going back to 1/3/22. Cash would have been better than bonds
59Gibson,

YTD

VTSAX -> Total Stock Market Index -> - 6.67%
VBTLX -> Total Bond Market Index -> -1.96%

A 60/40 with cash would be down by -6.67 * 60% = -4%

My 60/40 portfolio -> -3.54%

It is still better than cash.

KlangFool
30% VWENX | 16% VFWAX/VTIAX | 14.5% VTSAX | 19.5% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX| 30% Wellington 50% 3-funds 20% Mini-Larry
User avatar
JoMoney
Posts: 16260
Joined: Tue Jul 23, 2013 5:31 am

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by JoMoney »

KlangFool wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:57 am ....
You should look at my signature section and look at my exact 60/40 portfolio holding. My 40% bond is not 100% VBTLX.

"40% VWENX | 12.5% VFWAX/VTIAX | 11.5% VTSAX | 16% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX"
ahh.. FWIW, your VWENX holds cash as part of its allocation.
VWELX prospectus wrote: https://personal.vanguard.com/pub/Pdf/p ... 2210154485
... In addition, the Fund may take temporary defensive positions that are inconsistent with its normal investment policies and strategies—for instance, by allocating substantial assets to cash equivalent investments....
Last edited by JoMoney on Sat Jan 22, 2022 9:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
Triple digit golfer
Posts: 10433
Joined: Mon May 18, 2009 5:57 pm

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by Triple digit golfer »

whodidntante wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:08 am Bonds look a lot better if you ignore inflation, so let's do that! And we can also assume that interest rate risk probably won't hurt much. All aboard the confirmation bias train! Choo-choo! :twisted:
Inflation-adjusting returns would impact stock returns, too. But how much inflation was there in the first 21 days of the year anyway?

The point here is that bonds did their job of not dropping a lot while stocks fell. They only dropped 10% as much as stocks. No one is suggesting that they're a good long term investment. They're there to dampen the effects of a stock crash and offer a little more "safety" in that context.
User avatar
anon_investor
Posts: 15122
Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:43 pm

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by anon_investor »

whodidntante wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:08 am Bonds look a lot better if you ignore inflation, so let's do that! And we can also assume that interest rate risk probably won't hurt much. All aboard the confirmation bias train! Choo-choo! :twisted:
I Bonds FTW! :twisted:
Triple digit golfer
Posts: 10433
Joined: Mon May 18, 2009 5:57 pm

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by Triple digit golfer »

anon_investor wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 9:14 am
whodidntante wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:08 am Bonds look a lot better if you ignore inflation, so let's do that! And we can also assume that interest rate risk probably won't hurt much. All aboard the confirmation bias train! Choo-choo! :twisted:
I Bonds FTW! :twisted:
They are a few percent of our portfolio now!
User avatar
whodidntante
Posts: 13114
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:11 pm
Location: outside the echo chamber

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by whodidntante »

Tamalak wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:39 am I thought the essential draw of bonds was not the lower risk/reward but poor correlation with stocks. I'm not seeing that poor correlation..
Maybe try a long time period like four weeks instead of three. :P
KlangFool
Posts: 31525
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:35 pm

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by KlangFool »

JoMoney wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 9:10 am
KlangFool wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:57 am ....
You should look at my signature section and look at my exact 60/40 portfolio holding. My 40% bond is not 100% VBTLX.

"40% VWENX | 12.5% VFWAX/VTIAX | 11.5% VTSAX | 16% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX"
ahh.. FWIW, your VWENX holds cash as part of its allocation.
VWELX prospectus wrote: https://personal.vanguard.com/pub/Pdf/p ... 2210154485
... In addition, the Fund may take temporary defensive positions that are inconsistent with its normal investment policies and strategies—for instance, by allocating substantial assets to cash equivalent investments....
JoMoney,

https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... olio/vwenx

Short-term reserves = 0.9%


KlangFool
30% VWENX | 16% VFWAX/VTIAX | 14.5% VTSAX | 19.5% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX| 30% Wellington 50% 3-funds 20% Mini-Larry
User avatar
JoMoney
Posts: 16260
Joined: Tue Jul 23, 2013 5:31 am

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by JoMoney »

Tamalak wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:39 am I thought the essential draw of bonds was not the lower risk/reward but poor correlation with stocks. I'm not seeing that poor correlation..
People have different objectives with their portfolio. While I don't dismiss the effect of having a "diversified portfolio", especially when it comes to individual securities, but I don't rely on "correlations" for my safe money. There are no guarantees that bonds will have any specific correlation, they do have a guarantee of their principal and interest if you hold to their maturity.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
User avatar
burritoLover
Posts: 4097
Joined: Sun Jul 05, 2020 12:13 pm

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by burritoLover »

Vanguard Total Stock Market Index: +9.97% in 1 year.
Vanguard Total Bond Market Index: -4.57% in 1 year.
User avatar
anon_investor
Posts: 15122
Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:43 pm

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by anon_investor »

burritoLover wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 9:24 am Vanguard Total Stock Market Index: +9.97% in 1 year.
Vanguard Total Bond Market Index: -4.57% in 1 year.
How about since January 1, 2020?
59Gibson
Posts: 1386
Joined: Mon Dec 07, 2020 7:41 am

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by 59Gibson »

KlangFool wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 9:05 am
59Gibson wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:40 am
JoMoney wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:36 am
KlangFool wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:17 am
7eight9 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:01 am Cash is doing a better job.
I disagreed.

On 1/21/2021, the stock market dropped about 2%. The bond went up about by 0.4%. My 60/40 portfolio dropped 0.73%.

If that 40% was cash, my 60/40 portfolio would had dropped 1.2% (60% of 2%).

The bond did a better job.

KlangFool
There's something wrong with your numbers, or at least your leaving out crucial info.

If your portfolio was $100
60% or $60 in stocks that dropped 2% (-$1.20)
40% or $40 in bonds that went up .4% +$0.16

That's an aggregate of your $100 portfolio dropping to $98.96
Or -1.04% not -0.73%

:confused
True. And That's only a 1 day comparison, OP is going back to 1/3/22. Cash would have been better than bonds
59Gibson,

YTD

VTSAX -> Total Stock Market Index -> - 6.67%
VBTLX -> Total Bond Market Index -> -1.96%

A 60/40 with cash would be down by -6.67 * 60% = -4%

My 60/40 portfolio -> -3.54%

It is still better than cash.

KlangFool
I don't know about your specific portfolio configuration in your signature, but being down 0% with the 40% in cash is better than down 1.96% with bonds. OP mentioned Total stock and total bond since 1/3. Cash would have been better than the bond fund for that period.
KlangFool
Posts: 31525
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:35 pm

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by KlangFool »

59Gibson wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 9:30 am
KlangFool wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 9:05 am
59Gibson wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:40 am
JoMoney wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:36 am
KlangFool wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:17 am

I disagreed.

On 1/21/2021, the stock market dropped about 2%. The bond went up about by 0.4%. My 60/40 portfolio dropped 0.73%.

If that 40% was cash, my 60/40 portfolio would had dropped 1.2% (60% of 2%).

The bond did a better job.

KlangFool
There's something wrong with your numbers, or at least your leaving out crucial info.

If your portfolio was $100
60% or $60 in stocks that dropped 2% (-$1.20)
40% or $40 in bonds that went up .4% +$0.16

That's an aggregate of your $100 portfolio dropping to $98.96
Or -1.04% not -0.73%

:confused
True. And That's only a 1 day comparison, OP is going back to 1/3/22. Cash would have been better than bonds
59Gibson,

YTD

VTSAX -> Total Stock Market Index -> - 6.67%
VBTLX -> Total Bond Market Index -> -1.96%

A 60/40 with cash would be down by -6.67 * 60% = -4%

My 60/40 portfolio -> -3.54%

It is still better than cash.

KlangFool
I don't know about your specific portfolio configuration in your signature, but being down 0% with the 40% in cash is better than down 1.96% with bonds. OP mentioned Total stock and total bond since 1/3. Cash would have been better than the bond fund for that period.
59Gibson,

1) Do you agree that cash does not go up or down?

2) Do you agree that the bond would go up and down? It is just not as much as the stock.

<<being down 0% with the 40% in cash is better than down 1.96% with bonds. >>

Hence, the bond is not just down 1.96% over this period. It oscillates over that period just like on 1/21/2022. It actually goes up 0.4%. And, when a person like me with a portfolio with the Wellington Fund (65/35) that rebalance everyday, the result could be a lot better than cash.

Beating 60/40 with cash with 0.5% over 21 days is pretty good.

There are risks with the bond. Hence, it may be rewarded some time. There are no risk with cash. Hence, you would not be rewarded.

KlangFool
30% VWENX | 16% VFWAX/VTIAX | 14.5% VTSAX | 19.5% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX| 30% Wellington 50% 3-funds 20% Mini-Larry
CraigTester
Posts: 1488
Joined: Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:34 am

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by CraigTester »

HomerJ wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:22 pm Vanguard Total Stock Market Index - $10,000 invested on 1/3/2022 is worth $9,095. Down 9% in 3 weeks.
Vanguard Total Bond Market Index - $10,000 invested on 1/3/2022 is worth $9,911. Down 0.9% in 3 weeks.

Doing their job.

So far.

Guess we'll see what happens going forward.
Does this mean you’re buying more US stock right now?

This ought to be just about enough to trigger your 5% “band”?
Triple digit golfer
Posts: 10433
Joined: Mon May 18, 2009 5:57 pm

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by Triple digit golfer »

CraigTester wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 9:40 am
HomerJ wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:22 pm Vanguard Total Stock Market Index - $10,000 invested on 1/3/2022 is worth $9,095. Down 9% in 3 weeks.
Vanguard Total Bond Market Index - $10,000 invested on 1/3/2022 is worth $9,911. Down 0.9% in 3 weeks.

Doing their job.

So far.

Guess we'll see what happens going forward.
Does this mean you’re buying more US stock right now?

This ought to be just about enough to trigger your 5% “band”?
He's 50/50 and that would only drop it to about 48/52.
User avatar
JoMoney
Posts: 16260
Joined: Tue Jul 23, 2013 5:31 am

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by JoMoney »

KlangFool wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 9:37 am...
Hence, the bond is not just down 1.96% over this period. It oscillates over that period just like on 1/21/2022. It actually goes up 0.4%. And, when a person like me with a portfolio with the Wellington Fund (65/35) that rebalance everyday, the result could be a lot better than cash.

Beating 60/40 with cash with 0.5% over 21 days is pretty good.

There are risks with the bond. Hence, it may be rewarded some time. There are no risk with cash. Hence, you would not be rewarded...
That's the key point, and not just the risks of holding a bond you don't expect to hold to term, there are risks with holding bonds hoping to day-trade them as you suggest. There is a risk your strategy will fail, there is no risk to holding cash (or bonds you expect to hold to term.)
Some people choose their fixed-income specifically to avoid those risks, and perhaps would rather have a larger equity allocation in their risk portfolio, than have a larger bond allocation that they hoped to day-trade with.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
Robot Monster
Posts: 4215
Joined: Sun May 05, 2019 11:23 am

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by Robot Monster »

JoMoney wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 9:47 am ...there is no risk to holding cash (or bonds you expect to hold to term.)
Isn't there inflation risk?
KlangFool
Posts: 31525
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:35 pm

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by KlangFool »

JoMoney wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 9:47 am
KlangFool wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 9:37 am...
Hence, the bond is not just down 1.96% over this period. It oscillates over that period just like on 1/21/2022. It actually goes up 0.4%. And, when a person like me with a portfolio with the Wellington Fund (65/35) that rebalance everyday, the result could be a lot better than cash.

Beating 60/40 with cash with 0.5% over 21 days is pretty good.

There are risks with the bond. Hence, it may be rewarded some time. There are no risk with cash. Hence, you would not be rewarded...
That's the key point, and not just the risks of holding a bond you don't expect to hold to term, there are risks with holding bonds hoping to day-trade them as you suggest. There is a risk your strategy will fail, there is no risk to holding cash (or bonds you expect to hold to term.)
Some people choose their fixed-income specifically to avoid those risks, and perhaps would rather have a larger equity allocation in their risk portfolio, than have a larger bond allocation that they hoped to day-trade with.
JoMoney,

" there are risks with holding bonds hoping to day-trade them as you suggest."

1) I am not day trading. My Wellington Fund rebalance every day.

2) As part of maintaining my 60/40 AA, I have to put new money into my under allocated asset. This is part of the "Buy, Hold, and Rebalance".

3) No risk with the cash does not mean no risk to your 60/40 portfolio with 40% in cash,

Folks should look at portfolio return as opposed to assuming individual asset class return.

KlangFool
30% VWENX | 16% VFWAX/VTIAX | 14.5% VTSAX | 19.5% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX| 30% Wellington 50% 3-funds 20% Mini-Larry
dan7800
Posts: 390
Joined: Wed Apr 07, 2021 5:49 am

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by dan7800 »

@KlangFool: Just out of curiosity, what is your age and why do you not own any TIPS?

I'm asking just because I like to learn from more experienced folks here. I'm not second guessing you at all.

Thanks!
User avatar
JoMoney
Posts: 16260
Joined: Tue Jul 23, 2013 5:31 am

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by JoMoney »

KlangFool wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:00 am...
Folks should look at portfolio return as opposed to assuming individual asset class return...
The problem with the focus on return, is you have no control over the return of stocks nor bonds of longer maturity than your potential need of the money, nor the return from day-trading or daily rebalancing between assets.
One does have control over whether or not to expose themselves to the risk and unknowable result of that.
If I need $500 to make my car payment at the end of the month, there is no risk of the money not being there if I keep it in cash (or short-term securities that will mature within that time period.)
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
User avatar
Topic Author
HomerJ
Posts: 21281
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by HomerJ »

whodidntante wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:08 am Bonds look a lot better if you ignore inflation, so let's do that! And we can also assume that interest rate risk probably won't hurt much. All aboard the confirmation bias train! Choo-choo! :twisted:
Well stock and bond returns are equally hit by inflation, so it's not really a factor when comparing the two.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
User avatar
ClevrChico
Posts: 3259
Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2012 8:24 pm

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by ClevrChico »

BernardShakey wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:06 am
7eight9 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:01 am Cash is doing a better job.
Liking my Stable Value fund these days....
I'm liking mine too. I do wonder if I'm giving up money long-term by not buying a bond fund at lower prices with new 401k contributions. My stable value fund also has an ER .35% higher. With yield so low maybe it doesn't really matter right now. I plan to transition (market time :oops: ) back into total bond when yield improves.
User avatar
canadianbacon
Posts: 677
Joined: Sun Nov 10, 2019 9:04 pm

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by canadianbacon »

Tamalak wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:39 am I thought the essential draw of bonds was not the lower risk/reward but poor correlation with stocks. I'm not seeing that poor correlation..
So far this year US TSM is down about 9% and total bond is down about 1%
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
User avatar
Topic Author
HomerJ
Posts: 21281
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by HomerJ »

I picked 1/3/2022 because SP500 hit a record high on that day.

Since then, in 3 short weeks, it's dropped nearly 10%.

I'm not saying bonds are a great investment right now. I'm not saying they have negative correlation with stocks.

All I'm saying is when the stock market can drop a ton fast, and rattle most investors, it's comforting to have "safer" assets like bonds/cash/CDs that don't drop as much or as fast.

If I have $1 million in stocks, and $1 million in bonds, I lost nearly $100,000 in 3 weeks in stocks, and only $10,000 in bonds.

Bonds and CDs and cash make it easier to stay the course with stocks. In the example above, I'd still have 99% of my "safe" money intact.

Just talking for myself. Not trying to convince any of you.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
User avatar
TheTimeLord
Posts: 12130
Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:05 pm

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by TheTimeLord »

anon_investor wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:11 am My I Bonds are up YTD.
Even before the current perceived inflationary environment, I have always looked to I Bonds first when making bonds purchases. To me they are a great tool with tax deferral and liquidity what is not to love besides the limit on purchases.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
User avatar
peskypesky
Posts: 1023
Joined: Fri Mar 08, 2013 7:56 pm

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by peskypesky »

HomerJ wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:22 pm Vanguard Total Stock Market Index - $10,000 invested on 1/3/2022 is worth $9,095. Down 9% in 3 weeks.
Vanguard Total Bond Market Index - $10,000 invested on 1/3/2022 is worth $9,911. Down 0.9% in 3 weeks.
Cash - $10,00 on 1/3/2022 is worth $10,000. Down 0% in 3 weeks. :happy
User avatar
Topic Author
HomerJ
Posts: 21281
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by HomerJ »

Also, who knows what the next 3 weeks will bring?

It's a very short time sample.

Just saying, so far (that phrase is in the title), fixed-income seems to be doing it's job.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
User avatar
TheTimeLord
Posts: 12130
Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:05 pm

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by TheTimeLord »

Tamalak wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:39 am I thought the essential draw of bonds was not the lower risk/reward but poor correlation with stocks. I'm not seeing that poor correlation..
I think you will see that effect more often in longer duration treasuries.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
User avatar
Topic Author
HomerJ
Posts: 21281
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by HomerJ »

peskypesky wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:19 am
HomerJ wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:22 pm Vanguard Total Stock Market Index - $10,000 invested on 1/3/2022 is worth $9,095. Down 9% in 3 weeks.
Vanguard Total Bond Market Index - $10,000 invested on 1/3/2022 is worth $9,911. Down 0.9% in 3 weeks.
Cash - $10,00 on 1/3/2022 is worth $10,000. Down 0% in 3 weeks. :happy
Yep, that is correct... :)

My fixed-income side isn't really 100% Total Bond Index... I have solid chunk in ibonds now (like 15% of my fixed-income), and a solid chunk in cash/CDs (another 15% I think?)

But yes, over the past 3 weeks, cash has indeed done better than stocks OR bonds.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
KlangFool
Posts: 31525
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:35 pm

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by KlangFool »

JoMoney wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:07 am
KlangFool wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:00 am...
Folks should look at portfolio return as opposed to assuming individual asset class return...
The problem with the focus on return, is you have no control over the return of stocks nor bonds of longer maturity than your potential need of the money, nor the return from day-trading or daily rebalancing between assets.
One does have control over whether or not to expose themselves to the risk and unknowable result of that.
If I need $500 to make my car payment at the end of the month, there is no risk of the money not being there if I keep it in cash (or short-term securities that will mature within that time period.)
JoMoney,

I have two to three years of expense in cash as my emergency fund. It is not part of my portfolio. I have all three: stock, bond, and cash. I am not smart enough to assume I do not need bond. And, I do not avoid cash either.

KlangFool
30% VWENX | 16% VFWAX/VTIAX | 14.5% VTSAX | 19.5% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX| 30% Wellington 50% 3-funds 20% Mini-Larry
User avatar
TheTimeLord
Posts: 12130
Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:05 pm

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by TheTimeLord »

I still have Brokerage CDs yielding over 3%. am I trailing inflation, yes, but for the moment I am also insulated from certain ares of inflation too.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
KlangFool
Posts: 31525
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:35 pm

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by KlangFool »

dan7800 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:04 am @KlangFool: Just out of curiosity, what is your age and why do you not own any TIPS?

I'm asking just because I like to learn from more experienced folks here. I'm not second guessing you at all.

Thanks!
dan7800,

1) I am 50+ years old.

2) I am Financially Independent. Aka, I can retire any time now.

<<why do you not own any TIPS?>>

3) I do not trust the government's reported inflation number. Hence, I do not trust TIPS.

KlangFool
Last edited by KlangFool on Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
30% VWENX | 16% VFWAX/VTIAX | 14.5% VTSAX | 19.5% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX| 30% Wellington 50% 3-funds 20% Mini-Larry
User avatar
peskypesky
Posts: 1023
Joined: Fri Mar 08, 2013 7:56 pm

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by peskypesky »

HomerJ wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:21 am
peskypesky wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:19 am
HomerJ wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:22 pm Vanguard Total Stock Market Index - $10,000 invested on 1/3/2022 is worth $9,095. Down 9% in 3 weeks.
Vanguard Total Bond Market Index - $10,000 invested on 1/3/2022 is worth $9,911. Down 0.9% in 3 weeks.
Cash - $10,00 on 1/3/2022 is worth $10,000. Down 0% in 3 weeks. :happy
Yep, that is correct... :)

My fixed-income side isn't really 100% Total Bond Index... I have solid chunk in ibonds now (like 15% of my fixed-income), and a solid chunk in cash/CDs (another 15% I think?)

But yes, over the past 3 weeks, cash has indeed done better than stocks OR bonds.
and gold has done better than cash.
newyorker
Posts: 1635
Joined: Sun May 17, 2020 7:59 am

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by newyorker »

HomerJ wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:22 pm Vanguard Total Stock Market Index - $10,000 invested on 1/3/2022 is worth $9,095. Down 9% in 3 weeks.
Vanguard Total Bond Market Index - $10,000 invested on 1/3/2022 is worth $9,911. Down 0.9% in 3 weeks.

Doing their job.

So far.

Guess we'll see what happens going forward.
Cash in Saving Account is doing better
intendi
Posts: 205
Joined: Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:16 am

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by intendi »

ClevrChico wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:03 am
BernardShakey wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:06 am
7eight9 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:01 am Cash is doing a better job.
Liking my Stable Value fund these days....
I'm liking mine too. I do wonder if I'm giving up money long-term by not buying a bond fund at lower prices with new 401k contributions. My stable value fund also has an ER .35% higher. With yield so low maybe it doesn't really matter right now. I plan to transition (market time :oops: ) back into total bond when yield improves.
I ended up splitting up the fixed income allocation in my 401k with a stable value accounting for a certain percentage and a target date fund the other. The stable value and target date funds are set to automatically rebalance between each other once a year. As the target date shifts allocation with time I'll reassess and choose a different target date if needed to keep my desired overall asset allocation in the 401k.

My timing's been so bad lately that I'm very grateful to avoid trying to time when to buy bonds or anything else!

Also, the way I understand it, the payout for the stable value fund is after expenses so the ER isn't an important consideration.
User avatar
anon_investor
Posts: 15122
Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:43 pm

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by anon_investor »

TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:18 am
anon_investor wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:11 am My I Bonds are up YTD.
Even before the current perceived inflationary environment, I have always looked to I Bonds first when making bonds purchases. To me they are a great tool with tax deferral and liquidity what is not to love besides the limit on purchases.
Definitely. I have been buying them since early 2020 when I first learned about them on BHs. My first purchase of them have a fixed rate of 0.20%!
User avatar
Topic Author
HomerJ
Posts: 21281
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by HomerJ »

KlangFool wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:28 am I do not trust the government's reported inflation number. Hence, I do not trust TIPS.
The government's official inflation number is never to going to match each of us personal inflation experience.

Sometimes it works in your favor. 7% inflation adjustment to Ibonds, TIPs, and Social Security payments is a bonus for me, because I'm not affected by the large amount of inflation on rents, gasoline, and new and used cars.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 32250
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:17 pm
Location: USA
Contact:

Re: Bonds are doing their job so far

Post by willthrill81 »

Tamalak wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:39 am I thought the essential draw of bonds was not the lower risk/reward but poor correlation with stocks. I'm not seeing that poor correlation..
Stocks and bonds being generally uncorrelated does not mean that they cannot go up or down at the same time. A lack of correlation between two variables means that one can go up while the other goes down or they can both go up or down over a period shorter than the 'long-term'.
The Sensible Steward
Post Reply