Long term Treasuries soaring!

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CletusCaddy
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Long term Treasuries soaring!

Post by CletusCaddy »

Surprised this topic doesn’t exist yet.

EDV up 1.6% today. Doing its job of stock crash insurance.
seajay
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Re: Long term Treasuries soaring!

Post by seajay »

CletusCaddy wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:24 pm Surprised this topic doesn’t exist yet.

EDV up 1.6% today. Doing its job of stock crash insurance.
Shorter term inverse correlation, mid/longer term correlates?
Topic Author
CletusCaddy
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Re: Long term Treasuries soaring!

Post by CletusCaddy »

seajay wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:29 pm
CletusCaddy wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:24 pm Surprised this topic doesn’t exist yet.

EDV up 1.6% today. Doing its job of stock crash insurance.
Shorter term inverse correlation, mid/longer term correlates?
I think the data shows during normal times there is zero correlation. During stock crashes there is negative correlation.
000
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Re: Long term Treasuries soaring!

Post by 000 »

Think the soaring will continue next week? :confused
muffins14
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Re: Long term Treasuries soaring!

Post by muffins14 »

Rejoice
Crom laughs at your Four Winds
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TheTimeLord
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Re: Long term Treasuries soaring!

Post by TheTimeLord »

According to Morningstar EDV had a return of -6.20% in 2021 and YTD is -3.49%.

https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/edv/performance
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
exodusNH
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Re: Long term Treasuries soaring!

Post by exodusNH »

CletusCaddy wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:38 pm
seajay wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:29 pm
CletusCaddy wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:24 pm Surprised this topic doesn’t exist yet.

EDV up 1.6% today. Doing its job of stock crash insurance.
Shorter term inverse correlation, mid/longer term correlates?
I think the data shows during normal times there is zero correlation. During stock crashes there is negative correlation.
This is true over the last ~40 years. Not so much before then.
z3r0c00l
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Re: Long term Treasuries soaring!

Post by z3r0c00l »

TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:00 am According to Morningstar EDV had a return of -6.20% in 2021 and YTD is -3.49%.

https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/edv/performance
So -12% with inflation, before taxes : (
70% Global Stocks / 30% Bonds
Triple digit golfer
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Re: Long term Treasuries soaring!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

It's down YTD while equities are down.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: Long term Treasuries soaring!

Post by TheTimeLord »

z3r0c00l wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 9:01 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:00 am According to Morningstar EDV had a return of -6.20% in 2021 and YTD is -3.49%.

https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/edv/performance
So -12% with inflation, before taxes : (
Maybe they are in a Roth, so no taxes. :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
hudson
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Re: Long term Treasuries soaring!

Post by hudson »

CletusCaddy wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:24 pm Surprised this topic doesn’t exist yet.

EDV up 1.6% today. Doing its job of stock crash insurance.
On Monday, if you buy and hold a 30 yr treasury until maturity you'll get roughly 2% per year.
Then you'll get your money back.
But if you buy a 30 Year TIPS treasury, you'll get your money back plus inflation.

You already knew all that.
Topic Author
CletusCaddy
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Re: Long term Treasuries soaring!

Post by CletusCaddy »

hudson wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:29 am
CletusCaddy wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:24 pm Surprised this topic doesn’t exist yet.

EDV up 1.6% today. Doing its job of stock crash insurance.
On Monday, if you buy and hold a 30 yr treasury until maturity you'll get roughly 2% per year.
Then you'll get your money back.
But if you buy a 30 Year TIPS treasury, you'll get your money back plus inflation.

You already knew all that.
Aren't TIPS all negative yielding at the moment? So I wouldn't get my money back.
tvubpwcisla
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Re: Long term Treasuries soaring!

Post by tvubpwcisla »

Something is always soaring.
hudson
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Re: Long term Treasuries soaring!

Post by hudson »

CletusCaddy wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:51 am
hudson wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:29 am
CletusCaddy wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:24 pm Surprised this topic doesn’t exist yet.

EDV up 1.6% today. Doing its job of stock crash insurance.
On Monday, if you buy and hold a 30 yr treasury until maturity you'll get roughly 2% per year.
Then you'll get your money back.
But if you buy a 30 Year TIPS treasury, you'll get your money back plus inflation.

You already knew all that.
Aren't TIPS all negative yielding at the moment? So I wouldn't get my money back.
Negative? I'm not an expert, and I've never bought one but here's an example: CUSIP # 912810RL4
A $1000 TIPS maturing in 2045: The asking price is $1,198.67
Money back? It depends on inflation

Bottom Line: TIPS "insurance" is expensive, but it could work out.
AlphaLess
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Re: Long term Treasuries soaring!

Post by AlphaLess »

Vanguard

YTD through Friday Jan 21

VTI: https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profi ... rmance/vti -> -8.5%
EDV: https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profi ... rmance/edv -> -3.6%

It's soaring alright.

The real consolation is that 3-yr return on VTI is 25.x%, and on EDV is 11.x%.

Those returns are out-of-this-world.

So, it may not be unexpected that both lose money in the medium term.
I don't carry a signature because people are easily offended.
AlphaLess
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Re: Long term Treasuries soaring!

Post by AlphaLess »

hudson wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:42 pm
CletusCaddy wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:51 am
hudson wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:29 am
CletusCaddy wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:24 pm Surprised this topic doesn’t exist yet.

EDV up 1.6% today. Doing its job of stock crash insurance.
On Monday, if you buy and hold a 30 yr treasury until maturity you'll get roughly 2% per year.
Then you'll get your money back.
But if you buy a 30 Year TIPS treasury, you'll get your money back plus inflation.

You already knew all that.
Aren't TIPS all negative yielding at the moment? So I wouldn't get my money back.
Negative? I'm not an expert, and I've never bought one but here's an example: CUSIP # 912810RL4
A $1000 TIPS maturing in 2045: The asking price is $1,198.67
Money back? It depends on inflation

Bottom Line: TIPS "insurance" is expensive, but it could work out.
TIPS coupons have two components:
- the fixed coupon rate,
- the inflation component.

The inflation component is essentially floating: you find that out after each period.

Generic treasury yield curve page. In the drop-down there are 6 choices.

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-cente ... data=yield

The first choice shows the regular treasury yield curve:
Date 1Mo 2Mo 3Mo 6Mo 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 5Yr 7Yr 10Y 20Y 30Y
01/03/22 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.22 0.40 0.78 1.04 1.37 1.55 1.63 2.05 2.01
01/04/22 0.06 0.05 0.08 0.22 0.38 0.77 1.02 1.37 1.57 1.66 2.10 2.07
01/05/22 0.05 0.06 0.09 0.22 0.41 0.83 1.10 1.43 1.62 1.71 2.12 2.09
01/06/22 0.04 0.05 0.10 0.23 0.45 0.88 1.15 1.47 1.66 1.73 2.12 2.09
01/07/22 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.24 0.43 0.87 1.17 1.50 1.69 1.76 2.15 2.11
01/10/22 0.05 0.06 0.13 0.28 0.46 0.92 1.21 1.53 1.71 1.78 2.15 2.11
01/11/22 0.04 0.05 0.11 0.28 0.46 0.90 1.22 1.51 1.69 1.75 2.13 2.08
01/12/22 0.04 0.06 0.12 0.27 0.48 0.92 1.21 1.50 1.67 1.74 2.13 2.08
01/13/22 0.05 0.05 0.12 0.28 0.47 0.91 1.18 1.47 1.64 1.70 2.10 2.05
01/14/22 0.05 0.05 0.13 0.30 0.51 0.99 1.26 1.55 1.72 1.78 2.18 2.12
01/18/22 0.05 0.06 0.16 0.37 0.58 1.06 1.35 1.65 1.82 1.87 2.24 2.18
01/19/22 0.05 0.06 0.17 0.36 0.57 1.04 1.33 1.62 1.78 1.83 2.20 2.14
01/20/22 0.05 0.09 0.17 0.36 0.60 1.08 1.34 1.62 1.77 1.83 2.19 2.14
01/21/22 0.05 0.08 0.17 0.35 0.58 1.01 1.28 1.54 1.70 1.75 2.13 2.07

The fifth choice shows the real treasury yield curve:
DATE 5 YR 7 YR 10 YR 20 YR 30 YR
01/03/22 -1.58 -1.25 -0.97 -0.55 -0.36
01/04/22 -1.56 -1.20 -0.91 -0.47 -0.27
01/05/22 -1.44 -1.10 -0.82 -0.39 -0.20
01/06/22 -1.30 -0.99 -0.73 -0.33 -0.15
01/07/22 -1.28 -0.97 -0.72 -0.33 -0.16
01/10/22 -1.24 -0.95 -0.70 -0.33 -0.15
01/11/22 -1.36 -1.05 -0.79 -0.40 -0.22
01/12/22 -1.32 -1.01 -0.74 -0.35 -0.17
01/13/22 -1.30 -0.99 -0.73 -0.34 -0.17
01/14/22 -1.24 -0.92 -0.66 -0.27 -0.10
01/18/22 -1.15 -0.84 -0.59 -0.22 -0.06
01/19/22 -1.11 -0.81 -0.57 -0.21 -0.05
01/20/22 -1.12 -0.76 -0.50 -0.17 -0.05
01/21/22 -1.16 -0.84 -0.59 -0.26 -0.12

Negative yields roughly mean that in order to get paid the floating inflation rate, one is taking a cut on the fixed coupon.

You can also compute the "break-even inflation rate", which would be markets expectation of inflation.

For example, let's take the 5-year horizon, as of trade date Jan 21 2022.

Regular 5-year yield: 1.54%
Real 5-year yield: -1.16%

Inflation expectations over 5-years: 1.54% - (-1.16%) = 2.7%

If you expect that inflation over next 5 years is going to be HIGHER, then:
- buy 5-year TIP,
- sell 5-year Treasury.

If you expect the opposite, i.e., that next 5 year average inflation is going to be LOWER, then do the opposite.

Market thinks that next 5-year inflation is 2.7%.
I don't carry a signature because people are easily offended.
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Kenkat
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Re: Long term Treasuries soaring!

Post by Kenkat »

tvubpwcisla wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:57 am Something is always soaring.
Maybe time for a “Commodities are soaring” thread?
AlphaLess
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Re: Long term Treasuries soaring!

Post by AlphaLess »

Crypto losses are soaring.
I don't carry a signature because people are easily offended.
chrisdds98
Posts: 500
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Re: Long term Treasuries soaring!

Post by chrisdds98 »

hudson wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:42 pm
CletusCaddy wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:51 am
hudson wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:29 am
CletusCaddy wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:24 pm Surprised this topic doesn’t exist yet.

EDV up 1.6% today. Doing its job of stock crash insurance.
On Monday, if you buy and hold a 30 yr treasury until maturity you'll get roughly 2% per year.
Then you'll get your money back.
But if you buy a 30 Year TIPS treasury, you'll get your money back plus inflation.

You already knew all that.
Aren't TIPS all negative yielding at the moment? So I wouldn't get my money back.
Negative? I'm not an expert, and I've never bought one but here's an example: CUSIP # 912810RL4
A $1000 TIPS maturing in 2045: The asking price is $1,198.67
Money back? It depends on inflation

Bottom Line: TIPS "insurance" is expensive, but it could work out.
that hasn't been true in the past. go to portfoliovisualizer.com and plug in TIPS vs intermediate treasuries. the returns are essentially the same over time. so if their is an insurance premium for TIPS it has been a negative premium
chrisdds98
Posts: 500
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Location: Austin, TX

Re: Long term Treasuries soaring!

Post by chrisdds98 »

hudson wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:42 pm
CletusCaddy wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:51 am
hudson wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:29 am
CletusCaddy wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:24 pm Surprised this topic doesn’t exist yet.

EDV up 1.6% today. Doing its job of stock crash insurance.
On Monday, if you buy and hold a 30 yr treasury until maturity you'll get roughly 2% per year.
Then you'll get your money back.
But if you buy a 30 Year TIPS treasury, you'll get your money back plus inflation.

You already knew all that.
Aren't TIPS all negative yielding at the moment? So I wouldn't get my money back.
Negative? I'm not an expert, and I've never bought one but here's an example: CUSIP # 912810RL4
A $1000 TIPS maturing in 2045: The asking price is $1,198.67
Money back? It depends on inflation

Bottom Line: TIPS "insurance" is expensive, but it could work out.
that hasn't been true in the past. go to portfoliovisualizer.com and plug in TIPS vs intermediate treasuries. the returns are essentially the same over time. so if their is an insurance premium for TIPS it has been a negative premium
chrisdds98
Posts: 500
Joined: Tue May 19, 2015 9:55 pm
Location: Austin, TX

Re: Long term Treasuries soaring!

Post by chrisdds98 »

hudson
Posts: 7119
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Re: Long term Treasuries soaring!

Post by hudson »

AlphaLess wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:19 pm
hudson wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:42 pm
CletusCaddy wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:51 am
hudson wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:29 am
CletusCaddy wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:24 pm Surprised this topic doesn’t exist yet.

EDV up 1.6% today. Doing its job of stock crash insurance.
On Monday, if you buy and hold a 30 yr treasury until maturity you'll get roughly 2% per year.
Then you'll get your money back.
But if you buy a 30 Year TIPS treasury, you'll get your money back plus inflation.

You already knew all that.
Aren't TIPS all negative yielding at the moment? So I wouldn't get my money back.
Negative? I'm not an expert, and I've never bought one but here's an example: CUSIP # 912810RL4
A $1000 TIPS maturing in 2045: The asking price is $1,198.67
Money back? It depends on inflation

Bottom Line: TIPS "insurance" is expensive, but it could work out.
TIPS coupons have two components:
- the fixed coupon rate,
- the inflation component.

The inflation component is essentially floating: you find that out after each period.

Generic treasury yield curve page. In the drop-down there are 6 choices.

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-cente ... data=yield

The first choice shows the regular treasury yield curve:
Date 1Mo 2Mo 3Mo 6Mo 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 5Yr 7Yr 10Y 20Y 30Y
01/03/22 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.22 0.40 0.78 1.04 1.37 1.55 1.63 2.05 2.01
01/04/22 0.06 0.05 0.08 0.22 0.38 0.77 1.02 1.37 1.57 1.66 2.10 2.07
01/05/22 0.05 0.06 0.09 0.22 0.41 0.83 1.10 1.43 1.62 1.71 2.12 2.09
01/06/22 0.04 0.05 0.10 0.23 0.45 0.88 1.15 1.47 1.66 1.73 2.12 2.09
01/07/22 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.24 0.43 0.87 1.17 1.50 1.69 1.76 2.15 2.11
01/10/22 0.05 0.06 0.13 0.28 0.46 0.92 1.21 1.53 1.71 1.78 2.15 2.11
01/11/22 0.04 0.05 0.11 0.28 0.46 0.90 1.22 1.51 1.69 1.75 2.13 2.08
01/12/22 0.04 0.06 0.12 0.27 0.48 0.92 1.21 1.50 1.67 1.74 2.13 2.08
01/13/22 0.05 0.05 0.12 0.28 0.47 0.91 1.18 1.47 1.64 1.70 2.10 2.05
01/14/22 0.05 0.05 0.13 0.30 0.51 0.99 1.26 1.55 1.72 1.78 2.18 2.12
01/18/22 0.05 0.06 0.16 0.37 0.58 1.06 1.35 1.65 1.82 1.87 2.24 2.18
01/19/22 0.05 0.06 0.17 0.36 0.57 1.04 1.33 1.62 1.78 1.83 2.20 2.14
01/20/22 0.05 0.09 0.17 0.36 0.60 1.08 1.34 1.62 1.77 1.83 2.19 2.14
01/21/22 0.05 0.08 0.17 0.35 0.58 1.01 1.28 1.54 1.70 1.75 2.13 2.07

The fifth choice shows the real treasury yield curve:
DATE 5 YR 7 YR 10 YR 20 YR 30 YR
01/03/22 -1.58 -1.25 -0.97 -0.55 -0.36
01/04/22 -1.56 -1.20 -0.91 -0.47 -0.27
01/05/22 -1.44 -1.10 -0.82 -0.39 -0.20
01/06/22 -1.30 -0.99 -0.73 -0.33 -0.15
01/07/22 -1.28 -0.97 -0.72 -0.33 -0.16
01/10/22 -1.24 -0.95 -0.70 -0.33 -0.15
01/11/22 -1.36 -1.05 -0.79 -0.40 -0.22
01/12/22 -1.32 -1.01 -0.74 -0.35 -0.17
01/13/22 -1.30 -0.99 -0.73 -0.34 -0.17
01/14/22 -1.24 -0.92 -0.66 -0.27 -0.10
01/18/22 -1.15 -0.84 -0.59 -0.22 -0.06
01/19/22 -1.11 -0.81 -0.57 -0.21 -0.05
01/20/22 -1.12 -0.76 -0.50 -0.17 -0.05
01/21/22 -1.16 -0.84 -0.59 -0.26 -0.12

Negative yields roughly mean that in order to get paid the floating inflation rate, one is taking a cut on the fixed coupon.

You can also compute the "break-even inflation rate", which would be markets expectation of inflation.

For example, let's take the 5-year horizon, as of trade date Jan 21 2022.

Regular 5-year yield: 1.54%
Real 5-year yield: -1.16%

Inflation expectations over 5-years: 1.54% - (-1.16%) = 2.7%

If you expect that inflation over next 5 years is going to be HIGHER, then:
- buy 5-year TIP,
- sell 5-year Treasury.

If you expect the opposite, i.e., that next 5 year average inflation is going to be LOWER, then do the opposite.

Market thinks that next 5-year inflation is 2.7%.
Thanks Alphaless!
Tell me more about the real treasury yield curve. How do they get it. What does it mean?
AlphaLess
Posts: 3409
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 11:38 pm
Location: Kentucky

Re: Long term Treasuries soaring!

Post by AlphaLess »

hudson wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 3:23 pm
AlphaLess wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:19 pm
hudson wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:42 pm
CletusCaddy wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:51 am
hudson wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:29 am

On Monday, if you buy and hold a 30 yr treasury until maturity you'll get roughly 2% per year.
Then you'll get your money back.
But if you buy a 30 Year TIPS treasury, you'll get your money back plus inflation.

You already knew all that.
Aren't TIPS all negative yielding at the moment? So I wouldn't get my money back.
Negative? I'm not an expert, and I've never bought one but here's an example: CUSIP # 912810RL4
A $1000 TIPS maturing in 2045: The asking price is $1,198.67
Money back? It depends on inflation

Bottom Line: TIPS "insurance" is expensive, but it could work out.
TIPS coupons have two components:
- the fixed coupon rate,
- the inflation component.

The inflation component is essentially floating: you find that out after each period.

Generic treasury yield curve page. In the drop-down there are 6 choices.

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-cente ... data=yield

The first choice shows the regular treasury yield curve:
Date 1Mo 2Mo 3Mo 6Mo 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 5Yr 7Yr 10Y 20Y 30Y
01/03/22 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.22 0.40 0.78 1.04 1.37 1.55 1.63 2.05 2.01
01/04/22 0.06 0.05 0.08 0.22 0.38 0.77 1.02 1.37 1.57 1.66 2.10 2.07
01/05/22 0.05 0.06 0.09 0.22 0.41 0.83 1.10 1.43 1.62 1.71 2.12 2.09
01/06/22 0.04 0.05 0.10 0.23 0.45 0.88 1.15 1.47 1.66 1.73 2.12 2.09
01/07/22 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.24 0.43 0.87 1.17 1.50 1.69 1.76 2.15 2.11
01/10/22 0.05 0.06 0.13 0.28 0.46 0.92 1.21 1.53 1.71 1.78 2.15 2.11
01/11/22 0.04 0.05 0.11 0.28 0.46 0.90 1.22 1.51 1.69 1.75 2.13 2.08
01/12/22 0.04 0.06 0.12 0.27 0.48 0.92 1.21 1.50 1.67 1.74 2.13 2.08
01/13/22 0.05 0.05 0.12 0.28 0.47 0.91 1.18 1.47 1.64 1.70 2.10 2.05
01/14/22 0.05 0.05 0.13 0.30 0.51 0.99 1.26 1.55 1.72 1.78 2.18 2.12
01/18/22 0.05 0.06 0.16 0.37 0.58 1.06 1.35 1.65 1.82 1.87 2.24 2.18
01/19/22 0.05 0.06 0.17 0.36 0.57 1.04 1.33 1.62 1.78 1.83 2.20 2.14
01/20/22 0.05 0.09 0.17 0.36 0.60 1.08 1.34 1.62 1.77 1.83 2.19 2.14
01/21/22 0.05 0.08 0.17 0.35 0.58 1.01 1.28 1.54 1.70 1.75 2.13 2.07

The fifth choice shows the real treasury yield curve:
DATE 5 YR 7 YR 10 YR 20 YR 30 YR
01/03/22 -1.58 -1.25 -0.97 -0.55 -0.36
01/04/22 -1.56 -1.20 -0.91 -0.47 -0.27
01/05/22 -1.44 -1.10 -0.82 -0.39 -0.20
01/06/22 -1.30 -0.99 -0.73 -0.33 -0.15
01/07/22 -1.28 -0.97 -0.72 -0.33 -0.16
01/10/22 -1.24 -0.95 -0.70 -0.33 -0.15
01/11/22 -1.36 -1.05 -0.79 -0.40 -0.22
01/12/22 -1.32 -1.01 -0.74 -0.35 -0.17
01/13/22 -1.30 -0.99 -0.73 -0.34 -0.17
01/14/22 -1.24 -0.92 -0.66 -0.27 -0.10
01/18/22 -1.15 -0.84 -0.59 -0.22 -0.06
01/19/22 -1.11 -0.81 -0.57 -0.21 -0.05
01/20/22 -1.12 -0.76 -0.50 -0.17 -0.05
01/21/22 -1.16 -0.84 -0.59 -0.26 -0.12

Negative yields roughly mean that in order to get paid the floating inflation rate, one is taking a cut on the fixed coupon.

You can also compute the "break-even inflation rate", which would be markets expectation of inflation.

For example, let's take the 5-year horizon, as of trade date Jan 21 2022.

Regular 5-year yield: 1.54%
Real 5-year yield: -1.16%

Inflation expectations over 5-years: 1.54% - (-1.16%) = 2.7%

If you expect that inflation over next 5 years is going to be HIGHER, then:
- buy 5-year TIP,
- sell 5-year Treasury.

If you expect the opposite, i.e., that next 5 year average inflation is going to be LOWER, then do the opposite.

Market thinks that next 5-year inflation is 2.7%.
Thanks Alphaless!
Tell me more about the real treasury yield curve. How do they get it. What does it mean?
Treasury "real" yield curve is implied from TIPs prices (and corresponding coupons).
The math is roughly the same as in the case of the regular treasury.

What does it mean?

Well, let's take the 5-year point on the "real" treasury curve from Jan 21 2022. Based on that website, which I copied from, that yield is -1.16%.

What does this mean? Let's buy that bond, and hold it for 5 years, and look through hypothetical scenarios.
In each hypothetical scenario, the inflation is different. In each of those cases, you get inflation - 1.16% yield on that bond.

For example, if inflation averages 3.5% over the next 5 years, then the 5-year TIP will yield you 3.5% - 1.16%, or 2.34%.

Or, if inflation averages 10.5% over the next 5 years, then the 5-year TIP will yield you 10.5 - 1.16%, or 9.34%.

Etc

When used with the regular (non-TIP) 5-year bond, you can also infer the market-implied inflation EXPECTATION.

So, the 5-year regular bond yields 1.54%. So, inflation expectation is 1.54% - -1.16% = 2.7%.

If the average inflation over the next 5 years ends up being EXACTLY 2.7%, then both bonds will end up yielding exactly the same.

If the average inflation over the next 5 years ends up being higher than 2.7%, then TIP would perform better.
And if the average inflation over the next 5 years end ups being lower than 2.7%, then the regular bond will perform better.
I don't carry a signature because people are easily offended.
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