How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?
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How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?
There has been a lot of selling in the markets lately and I was wondering if anyone knows if we are in a Bull or Bear market and how do you tell?
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Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?
We're in a bull until we hit -20% from ATH. We are closing in on -10% but not yet -20%.tvubpwcisla wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:52 pm There has been a lot of selling in the markets lately and I was wondering if anyone knows if we are in a Bull or Bear market and how do you tell?
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Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?
First define what bull and bear markets are then we can move forward.
It's hard to accept the truth when the lies were exactly what you wanted to hear. Investing is simple, but not easy. Buy, hold & rebalance low cost index funds & manage taxable events. Asking Portfolio Questions |
Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?
In retrospect.
Former brokerage operations & mutual fund accountant. I hate risk, which is why I study and embrace it.
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Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?
I'm not sure. I just see in the news and on TV and hear about the Bull market. Looks like someone got it. -20% from the ATH. Thank you!arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:54 pm First define what bull and bear markets are then we can move forward.
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Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?
Are the people on the news saying anything like this:tvubpwcisla wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:57 pmI'm not sure. I just see in the news and on TV and hear about the Bull market. Looks like someone got it. -20% from the ATH. Thank you!arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:54 pm First define what bull and bear markets are then we can move forward.
Or this:
It's hard to accept the truth when the lies were exactly what you wanted to hear. Investing is simple, but not easy. Buy, hold & rebalance low cost index funds & manage taxable events. Asking Portfolio Questions |
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Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?
Thank you!arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 3:02 pmAre the people on the news saying anything like this:tvubpwcisla wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:57 pmI'm not sure. I just see in the news and on TV and hear about the Bull market. Looks like someone got it. -20% from the ATH. Thank you!arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:54 pm First define what bull and bear markets are then we can move forward.
Or this:
Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?
A bear market is often declared retroactively to have begun immediately after the all time high. If we get to -20% before setting a new all time high, then today would ultimately be deemed part of the new bear market.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:54 pmWe're in a bull until we hit -20% from ATH. We are closing in on -10% but not yet -20%.tvubpwcisla wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:52 pm There has been a lot of selling in the markets lately and I was wondering if anyone knows if we are in a Bull or Bear market and how do you tell?
Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?
The OP wrote: "There has been a lot of selling in the market lately..." There has also been a lot of buying. For every share sold there was also a share bought.
Beyond that, perhaps the OP would explain why it is important whether we are in a Bull or Bear Market. I looked at the graphs that have been posted and noticed there have been several Bull markets and some Bears since I started investing. I have not been focused on the boundaries and I'm not sure why I should.
Beyond that, perhaps the OP would explain why it is important whether we are in a Bull or Bear Market. I looked at the graphs that have been posted and noticed there have been several Bull markets and some Bears since I started investing. I have not been focused on the boundaries and I'm not sure why I should.
Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?
tvubpwcisla wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:52 pm There has been a lot of selling in the markets lately and I was wondering if anyone knows if we are in a Bull or Bear market and how do you tell?
You only know after it is done.
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Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?
The bear market definitions I have seen not only require a drop (20% seems common) but it has to stay dropped for a period of time (months, not days).
Like others have said, you may not know at the time. It can only be known when looking back. This is one of the reasons that trying to time the market is so unreliable.
Like others have said, you may not know at the time. It can only be known when looking back. This is one of the reasons that trying to time the market is so unreliable.
Link to Asking Portfolio Questions
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Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?
Percent drop is what categorizes type of market trend. And, yes, it is only a look backwards. One can get an estimate of the very near future’s market behavior but that is not certain. This was evident after the rapid recovery after the March 2020 crash. But if markets drop over an extended period and volume goes up with it, it will have a snow ball effect with some panic selling. Who knows how long that would last though. If you have extra cash to buy when the market is down, you probably should. Otherwise, carry on as normal.
Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?
You never know what will happen tomorrow, next week, next month, next year. If you did, you could easily have all of the money that you wanted.
Nobody knows nothing.
Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?
+1+1+1+1.........retiredjg wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 4:42 pm The bear market definitions I have seen not only require a drop (20% seems common) but it has to stay dropped for a period of time (months, not days).
Like others have said, you may not know at the time. It can only be known when looking back. This is one of the reasons that trying to time the market is so unreliable.
Bull market and Bear market explained
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answer ... ket-names/
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.
Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?
Ratio of "100% stocks, why would anyone possibly own bonds" posts to "thank god I own bonds" posts in the forums.
Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?
BULL if I need to rebalance by selling Total Stock Index to buy Total Bond Index at least 2 consecutive times,
BEAR if I need to rebalance by selling Total Bond Index to buy Total Stock Index at least 2 consecutive times
to maintain my target AA ...
BEAR if I need to rebalance by selling Total Bond Index to buy Total Stock Index at least 2 consecutive times
to maintain my target AA ...
John C. Bogle: "Never confuse genius with luck and a bull market".
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Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?
Bull: When someone creates a thread like "ARKK is destroying total market funds"
Bear: When the OP disappears without a trace
Btw, the Russell 2000 is down 19%, so it's on the verge of a bear market
Bear: When the OP disappears without a trace
Btw, the Russell 2000 is down 19%, so it's on the verge of a bear market
Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?
Dear people.
If you missed the fact that you are in a Bull Market since the GFC…have your forks and butter knives taken away from you. You are a danger to yourself. The electric wall socket dangers are wall to wall.
In 2015 another invisible freakish endorphine push was introduced into the market. Chart it out.
When one looks back in incredulation at the Bull (shat) market and does not see the hyperbolic nature of the increase. I will personally hand you an electrical conducive instrument for your own good.
Questioning this minuscule descent from an astronomical ascent begs for many hows and whys?
In 2020 the market was equal to Nikkei 1989 insanity out of line in valuation.
Then the market crashed, almost by design? A global pandemic has been the favored to blame.
And to blow everyones mind…the destroyed peak 2020 equity market crash then immediately rose from the ashes…and rose, rose and rised, risen with the greatest enthusiasm ever…FOMO, BTFD, stonks, HODL, a new currency was present and promoted that will solve this mess.
However, i can’t even use cash at my local Walmart. There is no payment option for the new savior currency either.
What market are you in?
Animals crap…that is the market we are in.
Hoongajji
If you missed the fact that you are in a Bull Market since the GFC…have your forks and butter knives taken away from you. You are a danger to yourself. The electric wall socket dangers are wall to wall.
In 2015 another invisible freakish endorphine push was introduced into the market. Chart it out.
When one looks back in incredulation at the Bull (shat) market and does not see the hyperbolic nature of the increase. I will personally hand you an electrical conducive instrument for your own good.
Questioning this minuscule descent from an astronomical ascent begs for many hows and whys?
In 2020 the market was equal to Nikkei 1989 insanity out of line in valuation.
Then the market crashed, almost by design? A global pandemic has been the favored to blame.
And to blow everyones mind…the destroyed peak 2020 equity market crash then immediately rose from the ashes…and rose, rose and rised, risen with the greatest enthusiasm ever…FOMO, BTFD, stonks, HODL, a new currency was present and promoted that will solve this mess.
However, i can’t even use cash at my local Walmart. There is no payment option for the new savior currency either.
What market are you in?
Animals crap…that is the market we are in.
Hoongajji