How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?

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tvubpwcisla
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How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?

Post by tvubpwcisla »

There has been a lot of selling in the markets lately and I was wondering if anyone knows if we are in a Bull or Bear market and how do you tell?
Marseille07
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Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?

Post by Marseille07 »

tvubpwcisla wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:52 pm There has been a lot of selling in the markets lately and I was wondering if anyone knows if we are in a Bull or Bear market and how do you tell?
We're in a bull until we hit -20% from ATH. We are closing in on -10% but not yet -20%.
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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

First define what bull and bear markets are then we can move forward.
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Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?

Post by alex_686 »

In retrospect.
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tvubpwcisla
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Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?

Post by tvubpwcisla »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:54 pm First define what bull and bear markets are then we can move forward.
I'm not sure. I just see in the news and on TV and hear about the Bull market. Looks like someone got it. -20% from the ATH. Thank you!
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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

tvubpwcisla wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:57 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:54 pm First define what bull and bear markets are then we can move forward.
I'm not sure. I just see in the news and on TV and hear about the Bull market. Looks like someone got it. -20% from the ATH. Thank you!
Are the people on the news saying anything like this:

Image

Or this:

Image
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tvubpwcisla
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Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?

Post by tvubpwcisla »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 3:02 pm
tvubpwcisla wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:57 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:54 pm First define what bull and bear markets are then we can move forward.
I'm not sure. I just see in the news and on TV and hear about the Bull market. Looks like someone got it. -20% from the ATH. Thank you!
Are the people on the news saying anything like this:

Image

Or this:

Image
Thank you!
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Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?

Post by drk »

alex_686 wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:57 pm In retrospect.
Right, just like recessions.
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Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?

Post by patrick »

Marseille07 wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:54 pm
tvubpwcisla wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:52 pm There has been a lot of selling in the markets lately and I was wondering if anyone knows if we are in a Bull or Bear market and how do you tell?
We're in a bull until we hit -20% from ATH. We are closing in on -10% but not yet -20%.
A bear market is often declared retroactively to have begun immediately after the all time high. If we get to -20% before setting a new all time high, then today would ultimately be deemed part of the new bear market.
Geologist
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Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?

Post by Geologist »

The OP wrote: "There has been a lot of selling in the market lately..." There has also been a lot of buying. For every share sold there was also a share bought.

Beyond that, perhaps the OP would explain why it is important whether we are in a Bull or Bear Market. I looked at the graphs that have been posted and noticed there have been several Bull markets and some Bears since I started investing. I have not been focused on the boundaries and I'm not sure why I should.
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Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?

Post by KlangFool »

tvubpwcisla wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:52 pm There has been a lot of selling in the markets lately and I was wondering if anyone knows if we are in a Bull or Bear market and how do you tell?

You only know after it is done.

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retiredjg
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Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?

Post by retiredjg »

The bear market definitions I have seen not only require a drop (20% seems common) but it has to stay dropped for a period of time (months, not days).

Like others have said, you may not know at the time. It can only be known when looking back. This is one of the reasons that trying to time the market is so unreliable.
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Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?

Post by ChinchillaWhiplash »

Percent drop is what categorizes type of market trend. And, yes, it is only a look backwards. One can get an estimate of the very near future’s market behavior but that is not certain. This was evident after the rapid recovery after the March 2020 crash. But if markets drop over an extended period and volume goes up with it, it will have a snow ball effect with some panic selling. Who knows how long that would last though. If you have extra cash to buy when the market is down, you probably should. Otherwise, carry on as normal.
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Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?

Post by windaar »

You never know what will happen tomorrow, next week, next month, next year. If you did, you could easily have all of the money that you wanted.
Nobody knows nothing.
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Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?

Post by pkcrafter »

retiredjg wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 4:42 pm The bear market definitions I have seen not only require a drop (20% seems common) but it has to stay dropped for a period of time (months, not days).

Like others have said, you may not know at the time. It can only be known when looking back. This is one of the reasons that trying to time the market is so unreliable.
+1+1+1+1.........


Bull market and Bear market explained

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Da5id
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Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?

Post by Da5id »

Ratio of "100% stocks, why would anyone possibly own bonds" posts to "thank god I own bonds" posts in the forums.
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Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?

Post by DSBH »

BULL if I need to rebalance by selling Total Stock Index to buy Total Bond Index at least 2 consecutive times,
BEAR if I need to rebalance by selling Total Bond Index to buy Total Stock Index at least 2 consecutive times

to maintain my target AA ...
John C. Bogle: "Never confuse genius with luck and a bull market".
moneyflowin
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Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?

Post by moneyflowin »

Bull: When someone creates a thread like "ARKK is destroying total market funds"

Bear: When the OP disappears without a trace


Btw, the Russell 2000 is down 19%, so it's on the verge of a bear market
Hoongajji
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Re: How do you know if we are in a BULL or BEAR market?

Post by Hoongajji »

Dear people.

If you missed the fact that you are in a Bull Market since the GFC…have your forks and butter knives taken away from you. You are a danger to yourself. The electric wall socket dangers are wall to wall.

In 2015 another invisible freakish endorphine push was introduced into the market. Chart it out.

When one looks back in incredulation at the Bull (shat) market and does not see the hyperbolic nature of the increase. I will personally hand you an electrical conducive instrument for your own good.

Questioning this minuscule descent from an astronomical ascent begs for many hows and whys?

In 2020 the market was equal to Nikkei 1989 insanity out of line in valuation.

Then the market crashed, almost by design? A global pandemic has been the favored to blame.

And to blow everyones mind…the destroyed peak 2020 equity market crash then immediately rose from the ashes…and rose, rose and rised, risen with the greatest enthusiasm ever…FOMO, BTFD, stonks, HODL, a new currency was present and promoted that will solve this mess.

However, i can’t even use cash at my local Walmart. There is no payment option for the new savior currency either.

What market are you in?

Animals crap…that is the market we are in.

Hoongajji
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