Interesting thought. Tonnage is probably more relevant than total ships.Northern Flicker wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 4:21 pmThis is the first time I've heard the idea that the number of battleships and carriers in a nation's navy was a signal predictive of the prospects for the nation's equity market to outperform relative to that of other nations.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 9:12 amIn the primary metric of the day: number of battleships and carriers. We finally starting rebuilding in the mid-30s during the depression. In 1933 the contracts for the Enterprise and Yorktown was awarded, WWI battleships got some modernization (mostly AA) and new hulls laid down.Northern Flicker wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:25 pmCo-equal standing during the depression?nigel_ht wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:09 pmThe co-equal standing with the British in the interwar years was an indicator.Northern Flicker wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:21 pm
It is moderately hard even looking back with 20-20 hindsight. And there was no clear indicator that the US would rise from the ashes of the great depression with the strength it displayed.
In terms of tonnage, USA's navy is much strong right now, but at their current annual investment, they become closer and closer over time.
2021: USA 2.3X China
2030: USA 1.7X China
2040: USA 1.4X China
2050: USA 1.3X China
2060: USA 1.2X China