I wrote the following in this post:stocksurfer wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 10:32 pmYeah, that's not a whole lot of help, is it. Especially when you factor in that globalization in many of those years sure was not the same it's now...willthrill81 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 07, 2022 10:21 pm The 30 year SWR for the U.S.-only portfolio was 4.4%, while it was 4.6% for the 'global' stocks portfolio.
I am diversifying elsewhere, I'm just looking at my Int'l holding and am wondering "why?". Over the past 30 years I believe they've just been a drag on the portfolio and it seems that EM is perennially undervalued and just about to go on a tear... Not holding int'l feels wrong to me, holding it seems dumb. Sigh.
depends upon what data you're looking at. Just one year can make a big difference. Here are the examples:nix4me wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:34 pm International has under-performed for decades. Makes no sense.
posting.php?mode=edit&f=1&p=6409018
From 1970-2008:
From 1970-2007:
See how you can change the performance of one over another just because of one year difference??
Here's some other info to ponder, domestic/international by decades:
source: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Domestic/international
different cycles of performance of US vs international (from JP Morgan's Guide to the Markets):
Here's how the market cap of US vs international has changed over time:
look at Callan's own reporting regarding the changing performance of assets both domestic and international over time:
The US was only top dog just 1 out of 20 years (through 2018). Which did better? Finland (in top spot 4 times). Take that U.S.
Should you just buy Finland and nothing else? Silly, right?
some emerging market countries did even better:
source: http://static.fmgsuite.com/media/docume ... ef3871.pdf
nothing stays the same. Assuming the past will be the same as the future is a mistake. Nobody knows nothing.
Regarding people who forecast that international will underperform, here on this board or elsewhere:
what do you think now?There are only three types of market forecasters: those that don't know where the market is going; those that don't know that they don't know where the market is going; and those that know they don't know, but get paid a lot of money to pretend that they do know.-- Larry Swedroe, page 125 Wise Investing Made Simple