U.S. stocks continue to soar! - 200-Day Moving Average portfolio side discussion

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Beensabu
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar! - 200-Day Moving Average portfolio side discussion

Post by Beensabu »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 9:47 pm
marcopolo wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 9:46 pm The whole concept is based on faith in backtesting, so if backtesting shows EoM is even better. then why not use that as well?
Because it's not "better" in a meaningful way.

If you roll a die 1000 times, some faces turn up more than others. Do you start arguing that "5" backtested better? Of course not.

This is why understanding why something might look better is important.
I don't understand what you're saying.

They're not rolling a die. The backtest isn't some random probability generator.

It's applying the model to the data. EoM looks better because it has been better over that time period.

Quite frankly, the backtest shows me that using the 200-day MA isn't "better" in a meaningful way.

anoop - If you want a smaller max drawdown and lower overall return outside of a convergence point, just have a more conservative AA and be done with it. If 25% is too much for you, go to 20% or 15%. Whatever. Pick your lowest non-0 comfort point (where you know you can just not touch it at all, no matter what happens) and go with that. But let it ride. Don't rebalance. Not in the next crash, and not in the next bull. I'm guessing you might need the next bull. Better let it happen.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar! - 200-Day Moving Average portfolio side discussion

Post by Marseille07 »

Beensabu wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 10:07 pm I don't understand what you're saying.

They're not rolling a die. The backtest isn't some random probability generator.

It's applying the model to the data. EoM looks better because it has been better over that time period.

Quite frankly, the backtest shows me that using the 200-day MA isn't "better" in a meaningful way.
I advise you not to become a backtest warrior. But I'm not an educator, I just suggest to think critically.

I've been there done that more than a decade ago.
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Beensabu
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar! - 200-Day Moving Average portfolio side discussion

Post by Beensabu »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 10:11 pm
Beensabu wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 10:07 pm I don't understand what you're saying.

They're not rolling a die. The backtest isn't some random probability generator.

It's applying the model to the data. EoM looks better because it has been better over that time period.

Quite frankly, the backtest shows me that using the 200-day MA isn't "better" in a meaningful way.
I advise you not to become a backtest warrior. But I'm not an educator, I just suggest to think critically.

I've been there done that more than a decade ago.
Hahahahahahahaha. OMG. Thank you for that :D

I pinky promise to do my very best not to become a backtest warrior. :beer
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
000
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar! - 200-Day Moving Average portfolio side discussion

Post by 000 »

I don't think moving averages are a good way for risk averse investors to avoid risk.

The reason is because anytime you're holding X% of stock you're taking the risk of X% of stock. In this case, the risk that your system doesn't get you out in time and you have to face the correction anyway.

In the context of passive investing I view it as a false safety fallacy, similar to DCA, which may actually make things less safe.

As far as trading on DMA or other signals, I think it's ok to do but you have to be willing to accept the full risk of your position.
clip651
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by clip651 »

anoop wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 3:15 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 3:02 pm
anoop wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 2:56 pm The signal only changes on the 1st of every month.
That seems crazy. If you want to follow 200d MA then you need to trade *at signal*, not at the beginning of the month. If the article authors simulated that way, they did it incorrectly. Waiting till EOM / BOM simply adds nonsensical delay factor you don't want.
That's what is recommended at the link I posted.
So anoop, why do you think the stuff in the link you posted is worth following, but the stuff in this link (below) isn't? Especially #5 on the list.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Boglehe ... philosophy

Just curious how you pick which stuff in which link is worth following.

cj
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anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar! - 200-Day Moving Average portfolio side discussion

Post by anoop »

Is there a website that computes these values for the different indices or perhaps any ticker on demand?
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar! - 200-Day Moving Average portfolio side discussion

Post by Marseille07 »

anoop wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 11:43 am Is there a website that computes these values for the different indices or perhaps any ticker on demand?
Buddy, the only 200d MA you should be using is that of S&P500.

You can craft charts here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart
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anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar! - 200-Day Moving Average portfolio side discussion

Post by anoop »

Marseille07 wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 11:48 am
anoop wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 11:43 am Is there a website that computes these values for the different indices or perhaps any ticker on demand?
Buddy, the only 200d MA you should be using is that of S&P500.

You can craft charts here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart
Thanks!
000
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar! - 200-Day Moving Average portfolio side discussion

Post by 000 »

anoop wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 11:43 am Is there a website that computes these values for the different indices or perhaps any ticker on demand?
https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111& ... 00_pb&ft=3
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