Is it possible to time the market?

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Beensabu
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Re: Is it possible to time the market?

Post by Beensabu »

Fallible wrote: Sat Oct 23, 2021 6:20 pm Thing is, we don't know what the poster's examples (other than the day trader) actually did with their investments, whether it was based on the short-term predicting that is true market timing or whether they were moving in an out to lower risk or reflect lifetime changes, correct original asset allocation errors, etc.
Yeah, I have a feeling they're lumping it all into a "is it possible to make more profits if you just get your predictions right?" category. Everyone has asked that at some point, even if it was just to themselves. Looks like most bases/angles have been covered so far in this thread, so they probably are getting the idea that it's not so easy, especially in the short-term.
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Marseille07
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Re: Is it possible to time the market?

Post by Marseille07 »

You can time the market, but it's not easy. This is why Mr. Bogle said to limit your "funny money" at 5% of your Asset Allocation.

This way, you can time the market however you want and if you are good, you can increase your portfolio over time. If you're bad, the damage is contained at 5%.
coachd50
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Re: Is it possible to time the market?

Post by coachd50 »

Fallible wrote: Sat Oct 23, 2021 4:41 pm
QBoy wrote: Sat Oct 23, 2021 3:39 pm The best way to time the market is to first invent the flux capacitor.
I looked it up and thought, "Why not?" :D
Wait, you had to look that up? OH that hurt.
chris319
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Re: Is it possible to time the market?

Post by chris319 »

If you have a taxable account, every time you sell to exit the market it's a taxable event.

If you sell at a gain, you have a capital-gain tax liability. If you sell at a loss, you can only deduct up to $3,000 in capital losses per year.

So you have to take taxes into account if you're asking about timing in a taxable account. Figure 15% off your winning trades, so already the deck is stacked against you. You're not going to have 100% winning trades so factor in your realized losses as well.

Buy and hold an index fund. No capital gain taxes and no losing trades. You'll have drawdowns but they are unrealized. You don't lose any shares due to a market drawdown, so you're in a position to participate in the eventual market recovery.

Which is the better deal?
Financial decisions based on emotion often turn out to be bad decisions.
prioritarian
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Re: Is it possible to time the market?

Post by prioritarian »

It's definitely possible and very easy to "time the market" but it's exceedingly difficult to outperform the market for any longer period of time.

This 2019 piece by Nick Maggiulli illustrates why timing the market is not an effective strategy even for those who correctly bet on the dip/bottom most of the time.

Image


https://ofdollarsanddata.com/even-god-c ... averaging/
coachd50
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Re: Is it possible to time the market?

Post by coachd50 »

Beensabu wrote: Sat Oct 23, 2021 5:23 pm

You can make that standard definition fit.

A young 100% stock accumulator is predicting that the market will go up long-term over their investment horizon.

A 30% bonds retiree is predicting that the market will go down at some point during their remaining investment horizon.

Each is investing in order to make a profit / not lose money.

A glidepath is an example of long-term market timing as well. The prediction is: as the investment horizon becomes shorter, the likelihood of the market going down and losing money becomes higher.

Those who keep money for upcoming short term needs are "market timers" as well. If they weren't, that money would be in equities.

Anyone who has anything other than a static AA for life is a "market timer", technically. Edit: Even those people with static AA are market timing if they're rebalancing. ¯_(ツ)_/¯
I don't think I would agree with all of those stipulations. The 30% bond retiree isn't predicting that the market will go down. They are simply recognizing that IF the market goes down, the impact will be worse as they don't have the same ability to earn income. Diminishing marginal returns relative to the risk.

The same with the glidepath. I don't believe it is a prediction that the market is more likely to go down. It is simply a recognition that the benefit of increased returns is not as impactful on the investors life as the detriment of losses.

Simply put, it seems that here you are defining "market timing" as the recognition that the market MAY experience declines. I do not agree with that definition.
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Beensabu
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Re: Is it possible to time the market?

Post by Beensabu »

coachd50 wrote: Sat Oct 23, 2021 8:03 pm
Beensabu wrote: Sat Oct 23, 2021 5:23 pm

You can make that standard definition fit.

A young 100% stock accumulator is predicting that the market will go up long-term over their investment horizon.

A 30% bonds retiree is predicting that the market will go down at some point during their remaining investment horizon.

Each is investing in order to make a profit / not lose money.

A glidepath is an example of long-term market timing as well. The prediction is: as the investment horizon becomes shorter, the likelihood of the market going down and losing money becomes higher.

Those who keep money for upcoming short term needs are "market timers" as well. If they weren't, that money would be in equities.

Anyone who has anything other than a static AA for life is a "market timer", technically. Edit: Even those people with static AA are market timing if they're rebalancing. ¯_(ツ)_/¯
I don't think I would agree with all of those stipulations. The 30% bond retiree isn't predicting that the market will go down. They are simply recognizing that IF the market goes down, the impact will be worse as they don't have the same ability to earn income. Diminishing marginal returns relative to the risk.

The same with the glidepath. I don't believe it is a prediction that the market is more likely to go down. It is simply a recognition that the benefit of increased returns is not as impactful on the investors life as the detriment of losses.

Simply put, it seems that here you are defining "market timing" as the recognition that the market MAY experience declines. I do not agree with that definition.
You got me :D Maybe I just want to define everyone as a market timer just because.

There's an element of timing to each of these though, because there is an element of prediction in each. "Recognizing it may" is equivalent to "predicting it may". In reality, we do not know. Making decisions based on "what if"s is making decisions based on predictions of possibilities and the likelihoods of them occurring. And that's what we do.

Why does the "market timer" label matter? And why is it so important that it isn't applied to you?

These threads always come back to asking how "market timing" is being defined so we can determine whether it is indeed market timing or not, and thus whether it is acceptable.

Instead, maybe let's think of it as:

- is the prediction reasonable?
- what is the likelihood of the prediction actually occurring?
- is the decision made reasonable in light of the prediction and the likelihood?
- what is the likelihood of that decision resulting in failure?

In cases where the responses are some combination of "no", "low", "no", and "high", there's your answer.

If it's "yes", "high", "yes", and "low", there's an answer there too.

It doesn't matter if it's market timing or not. What matters is how you came to the decision and how it's likely to affect you.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
secondopinion
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Re: Is it possible to time the market?

Post by secondopinion »

Beensabu wrote: Sat Oct 23, 2021 5:23 pm You can make that standard definition fit.

A young 100% stock accumulator is predicting that the market will go up long-term over their investment horizon.

A 30% bonds retiree is predicting that the market will go down at some point during their remaining investment horizon.

Each is investing in order to make a profit / not lose money.

A glidepath is an example of long-term market timing as well. The prediction is: as the investment horizon becomes shorter, the likelihood of the market going down and losing money becomes higher.

Those who keep money for upcoming short term needs are "market timers" as well. If they weren't, that money would be in equities.

Anyone who has anything other than a static AA for life is a "market timer", technically. Edit: Even those people with static AA are market timing if they're rebalancing. ¯_(ツ)_/¯
Optimizing based on the ability to take risk is not market timing; it is realism. It involves the goals of the investor and the capacity/willingness to take risk.

The hope is making a profit and not losing money every time, but that is clearly not going to happen every time because there is risk.

100% stock holders are holding stocks not because of a high or low, but because there is a likely premium for taking the risk. It is a risk they can afford to take.

30% bonds retiree often cannot afford the drawdown of being in all stocks. They cannot afford to be wrong with all stocks, so timing is beside the point; it is risk they cannot afford take.

A glidepath is a realization of the affordance of risk reducing over time. Not being able to take risk is not market timing but again realism.

Holding cash for pending expenses versus stocks is market timing? It is highly risky (in annualized terms) to do this. Again, risk affordance might not be there.

Not market timing does not equal being stupid with taking risk one cannot afford (or not taking those risks they can).
Passive investing: not about making big bucks but making profits. Active investing: not about beating the market but meeting goals. Speculation: not about timing the market but taking profitable risks.
coachd50
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Re: Is it possible to time the market?

Post by coachd50 »

Beensabu wrote: Sat Oct 23, 2021 8:22 pm
coachd50 wrote: Sat Oct 23, 2021 8:03 pm
Beensabu wrote: Sat Oct 23, 2021 5:23 pm

You can make that standard definition fit.

A young 100% stock accumulator is predicting that the market will go up long-term over their investment horizon.

A 30% bonds retiree is predicting that the market will go down at some point during their remaining investment horizon.

Each is investing in order to make a profit / not lose money.

A glidepath is an example of long-term market timing as well. The prediction is: as the investment horizon becomes shorter, the likelihood of the market going down and losing money becomes higher.

Those who keep money for upcoming short term needs are "market timers" as well. If they weren't, that money would be in equities.

Anyone who has anything other than a static AA for life is a "market timer", technically. Edit: Even those people with static AA are market timing if they're rebalancing. ¯_(ツ)_/¯
I don't think I would agree with all of those stipulations. The 30% bond retiree isn't predicting that the market will go down. They are simply recognizing that IF the market goes down, the impact will be worse as they don't have the same ability to earn income. Diminishing marginal returns relative to the risk.

The same with the glidepath. I don't believe it is a prediction that the market is more likely to go down. It is simply a recognition that the benefit of increased returns is not as impactful on the investors life as the detriment of losses.

Simply put, it seems that here you are defining "market timing" as the recognition that the market MAY experience declines. I do not agree with that definition.
You got me :D Maybe I just want to define everyone as a market timer just because.

There's an element of timing to each of these though, because there is an element of prediction in each. "Recognizing it may" is equivalent to "predicting it may". In reality, we do not know. Making decisions based on "what if"s is making decisions based on predictions of possibilities and the likelihoods of them occurring. And that's what we do.

Why does the "market timer" label matter? And why is it so important that it isn't applied to you?

These threads always come back to asking how "market timing" is being defined so we can determine whether it is indeed market timing or not, and thus whether it is acceptable.

Instead, maybe let's think of it as:

- is the prediction reasonable?
- what is the likelihood of the prediction actually occurring?
- is the decision made reasonable in light of the prediction and the likelihood?
- what is the likelihood of that decision resulting in failure?

In cases where the responses are some combination of "no", "low", "no", and "high", there's your answer.

If it's "yes", "high", "yes", and "low", there's an answer there too.

It doesn't matter if it's market timing or not. What matters is how you came to the decision and how it's likely to affect you.
No, I would still disagree. Perhaps it is semantics, but I disagree with your use of the word predicting in this sense. When discussing market timing, investors aren't taking positions because it "may" occur, but rather they believe it WILL occur. I would argue that doing things in pursuit of gains that may result in missing gains is not the same as doing things to try to avoid losses that may result in missing gains.

Regarding market timing definitions, predictions etc. it really is a bit more simple. If you are taking an investment position because you think the markets will react some way in the short term, that is market timing.
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Beensabu
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Re: Is it possible to time the market?

Post by Beensabu »

coachd50 wrote: Sat Oct 23, 2021 8:35 pm When discussing market timing, investors aren't taking positions because it "may" occur, but rather they believe it WILL occur. I would argue that doing things in pursuit of gains that may result in missing gains is not the same as doing things to try to avoid losses that may result in missing gains.

Regarding market timing definitions, predictions etc. it really is a bit more simple. If you are taking an investment position because you think the markets will react some way in the short term, that is market timing.
secondopinion wrote: Sat Oct 23, 2021 8:27 pm Optimizing based on the ability to take risk is not market timing; it is realism. It involves the goals of the investor and the capacity/willingness to take risk.
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vanbogle59
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Re: Is it possible to time the market?

Post by vanbogle59 »

Years ago, I subscribed to Hulbert Financial Digest.
It reviewed all sorts of investing news letters, followed their advice (on paper) and published the results.
It will come a no surprise that most failed to beat boglehead-ism, especially over multiple years.

However, there was this one. And it was SUPER market timey.
It recommended jumping in and out of the market every week! I think the idea was to get in at the end of Mon and get out by the close on Fri. Turns out Mondays were terrible. (I may be remembering the details wrong, but that was the basics.)

For years and years, this apparently worked.
Then I think it stopped working. Oh well.
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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Is it possible to time the market?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

rockstar wrote: Sat Oct 23, 2021 6:13 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Sat Oct 23, 2021 3:23 pm
rockstar wrote: Sat Oct 23, 2021 3:13 pm Banks have trading departments that make money, so it's possible to make money trading otherwise banks wouldn't do it.
are you sure they're not trading their customer's money and collecting a fee (known as a commission) everytime they trade their customer's money? And the commissions are how they make money, not trading?

are you familiar with the Fred Schwed book, "Where are the customer's yachts?"

By the way, they also lose money trading...like $6 billion worth. Ever heard of the London Whale (JP Morgan 2012)?

source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_JPMo ... ading_loss

if traders are so brilliant, how come there's such a long list of huge trading losses right here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_trading_losses

Long Term Capital Managements up there. Those guys were Nobel Prize Winners!

Other favorites that made the list were Bill Ackman, Carl Icahn, George Soros, Stanley Drukenmiller. A real murderer's row as Barry Ritholtz puts it.
Why would banks even have trading departments if they didn't make more money than they lost?
They make lots of money...off their customers!

If you're asking why people keep giving their money to the banks to trade with if they're going to lose...you'd have to ask the customers.

People do lots of dumb things with their money all the time. People lose money but think they have bragging rights because the have a "guy". Or they can get in to this exclusive club and so on. Some people don't pay close attention. If you don't believe me when I say people don't always mind losing money why is it that casinos are still in business?
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Northern Flicker
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Re: Is it possible to time the market?

Post by Northern Flicker »

secondopinion wrote: Sat Oct 23, 2021 7:06 pm
nisiprius wrote: Sat Oct 23, 2021 4:37 pm We aren't going to get anywhere without a definition of "timing the market." And the original poster confuses things by asking "Are there no ways to predict a stock rising in price over the course of days, months or even within a year?" So if crashdummy847 is following this, I ask them to tell us exactly what they mean by "timing the market."
Here is my definition (bad notation but I hope people get the idea):
Market timing is to enter a position in a binary fashion based on the result of some stochastic process s(t|X) where t is the present time and X is the information of pricing and trading observed up to t; that is, hold stock if s(t|X) > 0, no position if s(t|X) = 0, and short stock if s(t|X) < 0. It is long-only if s(t|X) < 0 implies no position.
By this, moving averages, localized volatility measures, and such buy/sell signals are part of market timing.

On the other hand,
Evaluation timing is to enter a position in a binary fashion based on the result of some stochastic process s(t|X) where t is the present time and X is the information of the company observed up to t; that is, hold stock if s(t|X) > 0, no position if s(t|X) = 0, and short stock if s(t|X) < 0.
By this, sales results, revenue growth, and such buy/sell signals are part of evaluation timing.

Maybe this is garbage, but it may be helpful anyway.
I define market timing as changing the asset allocation of a portfolio in response to some known or perceived state of the world with the hope of improving the return of the portfolio.

By contrast, rebalancing is resetting the allocation weights of a portfolio to match established asset allocation weights, and thus rebalancing is not market timing.
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Re: Is it possible to time the market?

Post by luckyducky99 »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Sat Oct 23, 2021 9:21 pm
rockstar wrote: Sat Oct 23, 2021 6:13 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Sat Oct 23, 2021 3:23 pm
rockstar wrote: Sat Oct 23, 2021 3:13 pm Banks have trading departments that make money, so it's possible to make money trading otherwise banks wouldn't do it.
are you sure they're not trading their customer's money and collecting a fee (known as a commission) everytime they trade their customer's money? And the commissions are how they make money, not trading?

are you familiar with the Fred Schwed book, "Where are the customer's yachts?"

By the way, they also lose money trading...like $6 billion worth. Ever heard of the London Whale (JP Morgan 2012)?

source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_JPMo ... ading_loss

if traders are so brilliant, how come there's such a long list of huge trading losses right here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_trading_losses

Long Term Capital Managements up there. Those guys were Nobel Prize Winners!

Other favorites that made the list were Bill Ackman, Carl Icahn, George Soros, Stanley Drukenmiller. A real murderer's row as Barry Ritholtz puts it.
Why would banks even have trading departments if they didn't make more money than they lost?
They make lots of money...off their customers!

If you're asking why people keep giving their money to the banks to trade with if they're going to lose...you'd have to ask the customers.

People do lots of dumb things with their money all the time. People lose money but think they have bragging rights because the have a "guy". Or they can get in to this exclusive club and so on. Some people don't pay close attention. If you don't believe me when I say people don't always mind losing money why is it that casinos are still in business?
I think the original comment was about banks trading with their own money. They do this a lot and are often profitable, but the profit comes not so much from timing the market, but from providing liquidity, especially during periods of high volatility when spreads are high. Banks made huge profits trading during the covid madness spring of 2020.
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crashdummy847
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Re: Is it possible to time the market?

Post by crashdummy847 »

Forget timing it. Speculation is about probabilities because it is impossible to guarantee anything. I have made/lost money on both highs and lows; timing it is pointless because it does little to make superior returns (the lack of investment will actually cost you).
[/quote]

So, does anyone time the market to some extent? I'm not trying to play the lottery, but I am willing to put in the work if it's necessary to spot opportunities. I'm not looking for one stock that's gonna take me to the moon, but rather make educated buys/sells over the course of weeks/months.
Fallible
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Re: Is it possible to time the market?

Post by Fallible »

crashdummy847 wrote: Sun Oct 24, 2021 7:08 pm Forget timing it. Speculation is about probabilities because it is impossible to guarantee anything. I have made/lost money on both highs and lows; timing it is pointless because it does little to make superior returns (the lack of investment will actually cost you).

So, does anyone time the market to some extent? I'm not trying to play the lottery, but I am willing to put in the work if it's necessary to spot opportunities. I'm not looking for one stock that's gonna take me to the moon, but rather make educated buys/sells over the course of weeks/months.
OP, after some 65 replies to your initial post, you seem to be asking essentially the same question again. :shock:
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
sc9182
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Re: Is it possible to time the market?

Post by sc9182 »

Can time the market - absolutely yes.
Can you time the market to make positive, significant and risk-adjusted returns — kinda hard.

Are you willing to put money where your mouth is ? If you invested $50k on 03/19/20 or 03/23/20 in TQQQ, URTY or UPRO ? likely that, you have now made enough money to pay off your mortgage with those monies ! It be lot sweeter if you made such gains with 1% margin money to begin with. But, have you !? (Or dared to do !?).

What are chances you can do such thing consistently ? Doubt it ..
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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Is it possible to time the market?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

crashdummy847 wrote: Sun Oct 24, 2021 7:08 pm I'm not looking for one stock that's gonna take me to the moon, but rather make educated buys/sells over the course of weeks/months.
Educated means you know things others don't. Do you believe you know more than the market? If so, why?
It's hard to accept the truth when the lies were exactly what you wanted to hear. Investing is simple, but not easy. Buy, hold & rebalance low cost index funds & manage taxable events. Asking Portfolio Questions | Wiki
secondopinion
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Re: Is it possible to time the market?

Post by secondopinion »

crashdummy847 wrote: Sun Oct 24, 2021 7:08 pm So, does anyone time the market to some extent? I'm not trying to play the lottery, but I am willing to put in the work if it's necessary to spot opportunities. I'm not looking for one stock that's gonna take me to the moon, but rather make educated buys/sells over the course of weeks/months.
What specific risks are you willing to take to obtain a profit? How will a gain or loss actually occur? How much of a gain or loss could or is likely to occur? How likely is a gain or loss to occur? Speculation is about taking risks for the possibility of profits; do not engage in any position without understanding it clearly what the rationale is of the risk taking, and what are the possible and likely results. Most market timers fail miserably to explain much of anything other than it will go up/down.
Passive investing: not about making big bucks but making profits. Active investing: not about beating the market but meeting goals. Speculation: not about timing the market but taking profitable risks.
Marseille07
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Re: Is it possible to time the market?

Post by Marseille07 »

crashdummy847 wrote: Sun Oct 24, 2021 7:08 pm Forget timing it. Speculation is about probabilities because it is impossible to guarantee anything. I have made/lost money on both highs and lows; timing it is pointless because it does little to make superior returns (the lack of investment will actually cost you).

So, does anyone time the market to some extent? I'm not trying to play the lottery, but I am willing to put in the work if it's necessary to spot opportunities. I'm not looking for one stock that's gonna take me to the moon, but rather make educated buys/sells over the course of weeks/months.
Some people do, including myself.

Be sure to only deploy 5% of your asset allocation for market timing. If you're good, you can grow the 5% seed money. If you're bad, the damage is contained at 5%.
secondopinion
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Re: Is it possible to time the market?

Post by secondopinion »

Marseille07 wrote: Sun Oct 24, 2021 10:43 pm
crashdummy847 wrote: Sun Oct 24, 2021 7:08 pm Forget timing it. Speculation is about probabilities because it is impossible to guarantee anything. I have made/lost money on both highs and lows; timing it is pointless because it does little to make superior returns (the lack of investment will actually cost you).

So, does anyone time the market to some extent? I'm not trying to play the lottery, but I am willing to put in the work if it's necessary to spot opportunities. I'm not looking for one stock that's gonna take me to the moon, but rather make educated buys/sells over the course of weeks/months.
Some people do, including myself.

Be sure to only deploy 5% of your asset allocation for market timing. If you're good, you can grow the 5% seed money. If you're bad, the damage is contained at 5%.
I use 10% for all non-conformist activities (besides near 100% self-management of fixed income [not singleton bonds though]). I have no regrets; it is my "opportunity/speculation/hedge money". I have made more money on this portion per dollar than the market by quite a bit. But the scalability is poor and definitely unwise (thanks to Kelly's criterion) to expand it to a much larger portion.

But timing it is not; I look for the right risk to take/reduce despite what the market has done or what people are saying. And I will not pass up a deal.
Passive investing: not about making big bucks but making profits. Active investing: not about beating the market but meeting goals. Speculation: not about timing the market but taking profitable risks.
Marseille07
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Re: Is it possible to time the market?

Post by Marseille07 »

secondopinion wrote: Sun Oct 24, 2021 11:01 pm I use 10% for all non-conformist activities (besides near 100% self-management of fixed income [not singleton bonds though]). I have no regrets; it is my "opportunity/speculation/hedge money". I have made more money on this portion per dollar than the rest by a considerable amount (around twice the stock market). But the scalability is poor and definitely unwise (thanks to Kelly's criterion) to expand it to a much larger portion.
I think 10% is okay. I used to have 40%, slashed it to 10% earlier this year then 5% maybe 3 months or so ago.
secondopinion
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Re: Is it possible to time the market?

Post by secondopinion »

Marseille07 wrote: Sun Oct 24, 2021 11:06 pm
secondopinion wrote: Sun Oct 24, 2021 11:01 pm I use 10% for all non-conformist activities (besides near 100% self-management of fixed income [not singleton bonds though]). I have no regrets; it is my "opportunity/speculation/hedge money". I have made more money on this portion per dollar than the rest by a considerable amount (around twice the stock market). But the scalability is poor and definitely unwise (thanks to Kelly's criterion) to expand it to a much larger portion.
I think 10% is okay. I used to have 40%, slashed it to 10% earlier this year then 5% maybe 3 months or so ago.
It really depends on the effective leverage and type of speculations for the percentages to be determined. Unless 40% is like a 10 or more stock portfolio of various kinds (or better), that is indeed risky.
Passive investing: not about making big bucks but making profits. Active investing: not about beating the market but meeting goals. Speculation: not about timing the market but taking profitable risks.
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Beensabu
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Re: Is it possible to time the market?

Post by Beensabu »

Fallible wrote: Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:00 pm
crashdummy847 wrote: Sun Oct 24, 2021 7:08 pm Forget timing it. Speculation is about probabilities because it is impossible to guarantee anything. I have made/lost money on both highs and lows; timing it is pointless because it does little to make superior returns (the lack of investment will actually cost you).

So, does anyone time the market to some extent? I'm not trying to play the lottery, but I am willing to put in the work if it's necessary to spot opportunities. I'm not looking for one stock that's gonna take me to the moon, but rather make educated buys/sells over the course of weeks/months.
OP, after some 65 replies to your initial post, you seem to be asking essentially the same question again. :shock:
Actually, it looks like they've clarified their OP.

They're not asking about market timing.

They're asking about stock picking.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
secondopinion
Posts: 6008
Joined: Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:18 pm

Re: Is it possible to time the market?

Post by secondopinion »

Beensabu wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 12:28 am
Fallible wrote: Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:00 pm
crashdummy847 wrote: Sun Oct 24, 2021 7:08 pm Forget timing it. Speculation is about probabilities because it is impossible to guarantee anything. I have made/lost money on both highs and lows; timing it is pointless because it does little to make superior returns (the lack of investment will actually cost you).

So, does anyone time the market to some extent? I'm not trying to play the lottery, but I am willing to put in the work if it's necessary to spot opportunities. I'm not looking for one stock that's gonna take me to the moon, but rather make educated buys/sells over the course of weeks/months.
OP, after some 65 replies to your initial post, you seem to be asking essentially the same question again. :shock:
Actually, it looks like they've clarified their OP.

They're not asking about market timing.

They're asking about stock picking.
Finally, then that is a different topic altogether.

Identify companies that meet your intended risk profile (low/high beta, quality/at risk, value/growth, quick/slow to inflation, stable/unstable earnings, etc.), and hope that the positive skew ends up (against odds) in your favor.
Passive investing: not about making big bucks but making profits. Active investing: not about beating the market but meeting goals. Speculation: not about timing the market but taking profitable risks.
Shorty
Posts: 231
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 3:54 pm

Re: Is it possible to time the market?

Post by Shorty »

I love these decoy/hand grenade posts. New account posts once or twice on a topic has been discussed ad nausium....then sit back and watch. Popcorn, anyone?
secondopinion
Posts: 6008
Joined: Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:18 pm

Re: Is it possible to time the market?

Post by secondopinion »

Shorty wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 11:04 am I love these decoy/hand grenade posts. New account posts once or twice on a topic has been discussed ad nausium....then sit back and watch. Popcorn, anyone?
Sometimes, these get the strongest opinions making their case; it can get some rather insightful dialog. This is a forum after all.
Passive investing: not about making big bucks but making profits. Active investing: not about beating the market but meeting goals. Speculation: not about timing the market but taking profitable risks.
Shorty
Posts: 231
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 3:54 pm

Re: Is it possible to time the market?

Post by Shorty »

yep
secondopinion wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 11:15 am
Shorty wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 11:04 am I love these decoy/hand grenade posts. New account posts once or twice on a topic has been discussed ad nausium....then sit back and watch. Popcorn, anyone?
Sometimes, these get the strongest opinions making their case; it can get some rather insightful dialog. This is a forum after all.
Fallible
Posts: 8795
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 3:44 pm

Re: Is it possible to time the market?

Post by Fallible »

Beensabu wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 12:28 am
Fallible wrote: Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:00 pm
crashdummy847 wrote: Sun Oct 24, 2021 7:08 pm Forget timing it. Speculation is about probabilities because it is impossible to guarantee anything. I have made/lost money on both highs and lows; timing it is pointless because it does little to make superior returns (the lack of investment will actually cost you).

So, does anyone time the market to some extent? I'm not trying to play the lottery, but I am willing to put in the work if it's necessary to spot opportunities. I'm not looking for one stock that's gonna take me to the moon, but rather make educated buys/sells over the course of weeks/months.
OP, after some 65 replies to your initial post, you seem to be asking essentially the same question again. :shock:
Actually, it looks like they've clarified their OP.

They're not asking about market timing.

They're asking about stock picking.
Stock picking is definitely part of it. I was going by the OP’s topic line asking if it’s possible to time the market and his latest post asking if anyone times the market to some extent.

Generally speaking, an interesting thing about the topic of market timing is its endurance on the forum. Thankfully, we have Taylor Larimore's valuable "gems" from the top pros on the subject.
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
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