nasdaq-100 total return, past 1 year ?

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julius_wolf
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nasdaq-100 total return, past 1 year ?

Post by julius_wolf »

I'm trying to measure the performance of my portfolio vs the Nasdaq-100, for the past 1 year. I looked at the performance of QQQ and noticed as of today (10/21/2021) , the total return is 36%. However the according to nasdaq.com is much higher 48.88%. Can anyone explain that discrepancy?

36% - https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QQQ/performance/
48% - https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/total-returns

Thanks
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David Jay
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Re: nasdaq-100 total return, past 1 year ?

Post by David Jay »

I don’t understand the Yahoo page. At the top they say that the “one year daily total return” is 36%, but further down on the same page they show an annual return of 43.96%.

44% is so close to 48% that the difference may just be the date that the numbers were posted to the individual database. For instance, one reporting may be Friday number while the other may be reported the following Monday.
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CurlyDave
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Re: nasdaq-100 total return, past 1 year ?

Post by CurlyDave »

When I look up the performance of QQQ from my TDA account the 2020 return was 48.6%.

As of 10/24/2021 they have the previous 12 months return as ~ 29.5% as of 9/30/2021. They show both a Market Return and a NAV Return which are slightly different.

My guess on the discrepancy is that the NASDAQ figures quoted are for the previous year, which would be 2020. Yahoo is probably looking at the trailing 12 months and calling that the previous year. If the Yahoo data is updated more frequently than monthly, going from 29.5% to 36% is not a big stretch.
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jeffyscott
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Re: nasdaq-100 total return, past 1 year ?

Post by jeffyscott »

David Jay wrote: Sun Oct 24, 2021 8:31 am I don’t understand the Yahoo page. At the top they say that the “one year daily total return” is 36%, but further down on the same page they show an annual return of 43.96%.
That table says it is monthly. So the 36% is presumably purporting to be for the one year period ending today or maybe Friday, while the 44% would be for the 1 year period ending Sept. 30.

However, I would consider morningstar a more reliable source and they have 1 year at 32.35% for the period ending Oct 24, 2021. For the month end data the 1 year is 29.53% as of Sept. 30.
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/xnas/qqq/performance

My solution would be: don't compare your portfolio to the NASDAQ 100 :mrgreen:
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burritoLover
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Re: nasdaq-100 total return, past 1 year ?

Post by burritoLover »

Why would you want to compare your portfolio to the QQQ? Do you have a heavy tech tilt?
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julius_wolf
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Re: nasdaq-100 total return, past 1 year ?

Post by julius_wolf »

Exactly, Im comparing QQQ to my friends tech/large cap portfolio. He is convinced that the impressive returns are due to his stock picking skills. I'm trying to convince him it's merely in line with that sector.
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burritoLover
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Re: nasdaq-100 total return, past 1 year ?

Post by burritoLover »

julius_wolf wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:45 pm Exactly, Im comparing QQQ to my friends tech/large cap portfolio. He is convinced that the impressive returns are due to his stock picking skills. I'm trying to convince him it's merely in line with that sector.
Ah, so what's the verdict? Did he underperform or outperform?
jarjarM
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Re: nasdaq-100 total return, past 1 year ?

Post by jarjarM »

julius_wolf wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:45 pm Exactly, Im comparing QQQ to my friends tech/large cap portfolio. He is convinced that the impressive returns are due to his stock picking skills. I'm trying to convince him it's merely in line with that sector.
Everyone is a genius in a bull market. :beer
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BrooklynInvest
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Re: nasdaq-100 total return, past 1 year ?

Post by BrooklynInvest »

On the Yahoo page one is one year by day (36%) and the other is one year to end of nearest calendar quarter (44%) - 9/30?

Nasdaq page is the index not the product right? So fees are a factor, but the size of the discrepancy can't be just fees, it's likely tracking error as well given the weight of some of the holdings?
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julius_wolf
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Re: nasdaq-100 total return, past 1 year ?

Post by julius_wolf »

burritoLover wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:49 pm
julius_wolf wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:45 pm Exactly, Im comparing QQQ to my friends tech/large cap portfolio. He is convinced that the impressive returns are due to his stock picking skills. I'm trying to convince him it's merely in line with that sector.
Ah, so what's the verdict? Did he underperform or outperform?
As of yesterday his past one year return was 46.84%. Is that good? Or average for the sector? That sector seems very profitable historically.
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burritoLover
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Re: nasdaq-100 total return, past 1 year ?

Post by burritoLover »

julius_wolf wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 3:03 pm
burritoLover wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:49 pm
julius_wolf wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:45 pm Exactly, Im comparing QQQ to my friends tech/large cap portfolio. He is convinced that the impressive returns are due to his stock picking skills. I'm trying to convince him it's merely in line with that sector.
Ah, so what's the verdict? Did he underperform or outperform?
As of yesterday his past one year return was 46.84%. Is that good? Or average for the sector? That sector seems very profitable historically.
Tech is a broad sector - what are his stock picks?
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burritoLover
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Re: nasdaq-100 total return, past 1 year ?

Post by burritoLover »

Another thought - I've been down this road before - it doesn't matter what you show them, they will NOT be convinced of anything but their own investing genius until it starts to go wrong.
jarjarM
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Re: nasdaq-100 total return, past 1 year ?

Post by jarjarM »

julius_wolf wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 3:03 pm
burritoLover wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:49 pm
julius_wolf wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:45 pm Exactly, Im comparing QQQ to my friends tech/large cap portfolio. He is convinced that the impressive returns are due to his stock picking skills. I'm trying to convince him it's merely in line with that sector.
Ah, so what's the verdict? Did he underperform or outperform?
As of yesterday his past one year return was 46.84%. Is that good? Or average for the sector? That sector seems very profitable historically.
Over the last 20+ years, QQQ only has 3 1-year return above 40%, 2003,2009 and 2020. CAGR since 1999 is only 7.18%. Of course, many will argue that tech sector today is quite different than 2000s.
QQQ Return
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jeffyscott
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Re: nasdaq-100 total return, past 1 year ?

Post by jeffyscott »

julius_wolf wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 3:03 pm
burritoLover wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:49 pm
julius_wolf wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:45 pm Exactly, Im comparing QQQ to my friends tech/large cap portfolio. He is convinced that the impressive returns are due to his stock picking skills. I'm trying to convince him it's merely in line with that sector.
Ah, so what's the verdict? Did he underperform or outperform?
As of yesterday his past one year return was 46.84%. Is that good? Or average for the sector? That sector seems very profitable historically.
Seems pretty good, beats Vanguard tech index fund VITAX as well as the index to which m* compares it. Also beats QQQ based on returns reported by m*.
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jeffyscott
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Re: nasdaq-100 total return, past 1 year ?

Post by jeffyscott »

BrooklynInvest wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:59 pm On the Yahoo page one is one year by day (36%) and the other is one year to end of nearest calendar quarter (44%) - 9/30?

Nasdaq page is the index not the product right? So fees are a factor, but the size of the discrepancy can't be just fees, it's likely tracking error as well given the weight of some of the holdings?
Maybe QQQ caps the percentage that can be in each holding and/or some other rules that cause it differ from the index?
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HomerJ
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Re: nasdaq-100 total return, past 1 year ?

Post by HomerJ »

julius_wolf wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 3:03 pm
burritoLover wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:49 pm
julius_wolf wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:45 pm Exactly, Im comparing QQQ to my friends tech/large cap portfolio. He is convinced that the impressive returns are due to his stock picking skills. I'm trying to convince him it's merely in line with that sector.
Ah, so what's the verdict? Did he underperform or outperform?
As of yesterday his past one year return was 46.84%. Is that good? Or average for the sector? That sector seems very profitable historically.
Umm.. you might want to read some investing books (check the Boglehead wiki) if you think 46.84% one-year returns might be average. This has been an exceptional year, and you should not count on it to repeat very often.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
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julius_wolf
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Re: nasdaq-100 total return, past 1 year ?

Post by julius_wolf »

HomerJ wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 3:54 pm
julius_wolf wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 3:03 pm
burritoLover wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:49 pm
julius_wolf wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:45 pm Exactly, Im comparing QQQ to my friends tech/large cap portfolio. He is convinced that the impressive returns are due to his stock picking skills. I'm trying to convince him it's merely in line with that sector.
Ah, so what's the verdict? Did he underperform or outperform?
As of yesterday his past one year return was 46.84%. Is that good? Or average for the sector? That sector seems very profitable historically.
Umm.. you might want to read some investing books (check the Boglehead wiki) if you think 46.84% one-year returns might be average. This has been an exceptional year, and you should not count on it to repeat very often.
I meant average in terms of investment in that sector in that time period. Obviously that's a much better return than an average year in for the S+p 500.
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HomerJ
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Re: nasdaq-100 total return, past 1 year ?

Post by HomerJ »

julius_wolf wrote: Wed Oct 27, 2021 12:31 am
HomerJ wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 3:54 pm
julius_wolf wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 3:03 pm
burritoLover wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:49 pm
julius_wolf wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:45 pm Exactly, Im comparing QQQ to my friends tech/large cap portfolio. He is convinced that the impressive returns are due to his stock picking skills. I'm trying to convince him it's merely in line with that sector.
Ah, so what's the verdict? Did he underperform or outperform?
As of yesterday his past one year return was 46.84%. Is that good? Or average for the sector? That sector seems very profitable historically.
Umm.. you might want to read some investing books (check the Boglehead wiki) if you think 46.84% one-year returns might be average. This has been an exceptional year, and you should not count on it to repeat very often.
I meant average in terms of investment in that sector in that time period. Obviously that's a much better return than an average year in for the S+p 500.
Ah my apologies... you were asking about the return of QQQ compared to HIS return of 46%.

I never use Yahoo charts because they ignore dividends (which is a fatal flaw).

Morningstar shows QQQ to have gained 35% from 10/26/2020 to 10/26/2021

So yeah, your friend has done better. Probably mostly luck, but maybe he is indeed a genius.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
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