Proof that nobody knows nothing [Hamster Performs Better Than Warren Buffett And The S&P 500]
- FoundingFather
- Posts: 407
- Joined: Fri Dec 18, 2020 9:20 pm
Proof that nobody knows nothing [Hamster Performs Better Than Warren Buffett And The S&P 500]
Today I read an article that reminded me how easy it is to beat the market.
A hampster known by the Dr Seuss inspired name of Mr Goxx, lives in a box, though not wearing socks, where he lives to trade stocks (he actually trades other assets, but that wouldn't have rhymed...). By running on his wheel or through a tunnel he picks what to trade and whether to buy or sell.
Clearly, this is a much better approach than plain ol' index funds, and his returns are the proof - he has been crushing the S&P!
From this, I think that there can only really be two choices for wise investors to make - either accept this new, market beating strategy fully and visit your local pet store, or remember that, even when someone beats the market, nobody knows nothing.
Founding Father
https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... oge-2021-9
A hampster known by the Dr Seuss inspired name of Mr Goxx, lives in a box, though not wearing socks, where he lives to trade stocks (he actually trades other assets, but that wouldn't have rhymed...). By running on his wheel or through a tunnel he picks what to trade and whether to buy or sell.
Clearly, this is a much better approach than plain ol' index funds, and his returns are the proof - he has been crushing the S&P!
From this, I think that there can only really be two choices for wise investors to make - either accept this new, market beating strategy fully and visit your local pet store, or remember that, even when someone beats the market, nobody knows nothing.
Founding Father
https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... oge-2021-9
"I do not think myself equal to the Command I am honored with." -George Washington (excerpt from Journals of the Continental Congress, 16 June 1775)
Re: Proof that nobody knows nothing
What are investment expenses - Hamster raising, care and fees !? Plus Vet bills !? Hamster picks/talk interpreter required !?
We might just stick to low expenses 0.05% or below index funds for now. Once (if) we cross 8 figure portfolio- we could employ a portion of Hampster portfolio ! (Assuming the Down-thread unfolded story didn’t happen
We might just stick to low expenses 0.05% or below index funds for now. Once (if) we cross 8 figure portfolio- we could employ a portion of Hampster portfolio ! (Assuming the Down-thread unfolded story didn’t happen
Last edited by sc9182 on Sat Sep 25, 2021 2:46 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Re: Proof that nobody knows nothing
Mr. Goxx is not in a box, he's in a bubble.
"By singing in harmony from the same page of the same investing hymnal, the Diehards drown out market noise." |
|
--Jason Zweig, quoted in The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing
Re: Proof that nobody knows nothing
Weird that it follows bitcoin so closely.
May all your index funds gain +0.5% today.
Re: Proof that nobody knows nothing
Regarding Mr. Goxx, we actually do know how the story further unfolded:
As was inevitable, Goxx's day-trading lucky streak ran out and Goxx ended up with a divorce, his Ferrari repossessed, paternity suits involving one litter of eight and another of seven, and a yet unpaid bill for six weeks of cocaine rehab.
On the other hand:
The eleven hamsters on the losing ends of trades with Mr. Goxx learned their lessons and stopped trading individual stocks. After deep self-analysis of risk tolerance and behavioral tendencies they started regular investments in broad indexes and formed the first hamster Bogleheads chapter.
Regarding the new chapter, a Financial Times reporter quoted a Bogleheads VIP (who requested anonymity but was hinted at as possibly being a revered founder) as saying that:
"Those little gals and fellas have the cutest secret handshake you'll ever hope to see."
As was inevitable, Goxx's day-trading lucky streak ran out and Goxx ended up with a divorce, his Ferrari repossessed, paternity suits involving one litter of eight and another of seven, and a yet unpaid bill for six weeks of cocaine rehab.
On the other hand:
The eleven hamsters on the losing ends of trades with Mr. Goxx learned their lessons and stopped trading individual stocks. After deep self-analysis of risk tolerance and behavioral tendencies they started regular investments in broad indexes and formed the first hamster Bogleheads chapter.
Regarding the new chapter, a Financial Times reporter quoted a Bogleheads VIP (who requested anonymity but was hinted at as possibly being a revered founder) as saying that:
"Those little gals and fellas have the cutest secret handshake you'll ever hope to see."
Re: Proof that nobody knows nothing
Best post today!Beehave wrote: ↑Sat Sep 25, 2021 2:41 pm Regarding Mr. Goxx, we actually do know how the story further unfolded:
As was inevitable, Goxx's day-trading lucky streak ran out and Goxx ended up with a divorce, his Ferrari repossessed, paternity suits involving one litter of eight and another of seven, and a yet unpaid bill for six weeks of cocaine rehab.
On the other hand:
The eleven hamsters on the losing ends of trades with Mr. Goxx learned their lessons and stopped trading individual stocks. After deep self-analysis of risk tolerance and behavioral tendencies they started regular investments in broad indexes and formed the first hamster Bogleheads chapter.
Regarding the new chapter, a Financial Times reporter quoted a Bogleheads VIP (who requested anonymity but was hinted at as possibly being a revered founder) as saying that:
"Those little gals and fellas have the cutest secret handshake you'll ever hope to see."
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
Re: Proof that nobody knows nothing
Ah, I didn't read the article so I didn't realize it was just investing onn crypto.
May all your index funds gain +0.5% today.
- FoundingFather
- Posts: 407
- Joined: Fri Dec 18, 2020 9:20 pm
Re: Proof that nobody knows nothing
Well played sir, well played...
Founding Father
"I do not think myself equal to the Command I am honored with." -George Washington (excerpt from Journals of the Continental Congress, 16 June 1775)
- Cheez-It Guy
- Posts: 4007
- Joined: Sun Mar 03, 2019 3:20 pm
Re: Proof that nobody knows nothing
I didn't know the name was from Dr. Seuss. I thought it was a callback to failed Bitcoin Exchange Mt. Gox.
Re: Proof that nobody knows nothing
Those cams are the real $$$ maker for Mr. Goxx. He gets to keep that money no matter what his investments do, yeah? As long as he's not overleveraged, of course.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Goxx Capital, anyone can do it!
[Thread merged into here --admin LadyGeek]
Thinking about going all in with Goxx Capital investing, I like the new technology. Thoughts?
https://www.wypr.org/2021-09-25/a-crypt ... he-s-p-500
Thinking about going all in with Goxx Capital investing, I like the new technology. Thoughts?
https://www.wypr.org/2021-09-25/a-crypt ... he-s-p-500
Fools think their own way is right, but the wise listen to others.
Re: Goxx Capital, anyone can do it!
Sure, anyone can pick the winning hamster with hindsight. What about all the other hamsters that didn't do as well?
Re: Goxx Capital, anyone can do it!
Yeah, OP should look up SPIVA's annual hamster report.
May all your index funds gain +0.5% today.
Re: Proof that nobody knows nothing [Hamster Performs Better Than Warren Buffett And The S&P 500]
I merged StevieG72's thread into the ongoing discussion and retitled the thread for clarity.
As a reminder, discussions of cryptocurrency as a investment are off-topic. See: Greater Fool Investing Strategies
As a reminder, discussions of cryptocurrency as a investment are off-topic. See: Greater Fool Investing Strategies
Eventually, one runs out of greater fools. - Burton Malkiel
Discussions of investment strategies based on securities or physical assets that have no underlying value or negative expected long term returns are prohibited. Examples include: cryptocurrencies; lottery tickets; tulip bulbs; Ponzi, pyramid, and multi-level marketing schemes; affinity frauds; and market manipulation schemes.
-
- Posts: 215
- Joined: Fri Apr 06, 2018 1:42 pm
Re: Proof that nobody knows nothing
I like to box.Cheez-It Guy wrote: ↑Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:52 pm I didn't know the name was from Dr. Seuss. I thought it was a callback to failed Bitcoin Exchange Mt. Gox.
How I like to box!
So, every day,
I box a Gox.
In yellow socks
I box my Gox.
I box in yellow
Gox box Socks.
- One Fish Two Fish Red Fish Blue Fish
Your welcome,
-
- Posts: 107
- Joined: Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:02 pm
- Cheez-It Guy
- Posts: 4007
- Joined: Sun Mar 03, 2019 3:20 pm
Re: Proof that nobody knows nothing
Thanks! Curiously, I read a BBC News article this morning (which I didn't write!) that also suggested a connection to Mt. Gox exchange. Maybe it's both!SanAntionetta wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 12:27 pmI like to box.Cheez-It Guy wrote: ↑Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:52 pm I didn't know the name was from Dr. Seuss. I thought it was a callback to failed Bitcoin Exchange Mt. Gox.
How I like to box!
So, every day,
I box a Gox.
In yellow socks
I box my Gox.
I box in yellow
Gox box Socks.
- One Fish Two Fish Red Fish Blue Fish
Your welcome,
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-58707641
"Mr Goxx's name is itself a nod to the potential disasters of the crypto market. A company called Mt Gox was once the biggest crypto exchange on the planet - until it was compromised and hundreds of thousands of bitcoin stolen, making the company file for bankruptcy."
Last edited by Cheez-It Guy on Tue Sep 28, 2021 12:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Proof that nobody knows nothing [Hamster Performs Better Than Warren Buffett And The S&P 500]
What they don’t show you is all the other Dr. Seuss hamsters that did worse…survivorship bias.
80% global equities (faith-based tilt) + 20% TIPS (LDI)
Re: Proof that nobody knows nothing [Hamster Performs Better Than Warren Buffett And The S&P 500]
Funny!
(made me spit out my Diet Coke)
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
Re: Proof that nobody knows nothing [Hamster Performs Better Than Warren Buffett And The S&P 500]
Anyone can pick a hamster that did well in the past. How do I pick a hamster that will do well in the future?
I hear the Fantastic Mr. Fox is getting some buzz for his livestock REIT.
I hear the Fantastic Mr. Fox is getting some buzz for his livestock REIT.
-
- Posts: 292
- Joined: Mon Mar 18, 2013 11:55 pm
Re: Proof that nobody knows nothing [Hamster Performs Better Than Warren Buffett And The S&P 500]
Looking at the hamster's specific trades, he only buys and sells a few highly correlated assets of the same specific class that are outside the stock market.
https://t.co/G4wFJt4tOH?amp=1
In the short time period of the experiment, virtually any basket combination of these assets available to the hamster outperformed the SP500. This is why the performance chart shows the fund tracked so closely to bitcoin. The conclusion that the extra performance of active management of equities is a reflection of only chance cannot be made from this experiment. It would have to be a hamster buying and selling stocks if compared to the stock market.
* I am not advocating to the forum to invest in what the hamster does.
https://t.co/G4wFJt4tOH?amp=1
In the short time period of the experiment, virtually any basket combination of these assets available to the hamster outperformed the SP500. This is why the performance chart shows the fund tracked so closely to bitcoin. The conclusion that the extra performance of active management of equities is a reflection of only chance cannot be made from this experiment. It would have to be a hamster buying and selling stocks if compared to the stock market.
* I am not advocating to the forum to invest in what the hamster does.
Re: Proof that nobody knows nothing [Hamster Performs Better Than Warren Buffett And The S&P 500]
I will not invest in them in a house, i will not invest in them with a mouse,
i will not invest in them in a box i will not invest in them with a fox,
i will not invest in them here or there i will not invest in them anywhere,
I do not like Mr. Goxx…….for I am the market….and at the heart of this crux.
Written by anonymous drinking a beer after work.
May it please you,
Whitecap
i will not invest in them in a box i will not invest in them with a fox,
i will not invest in them here or there i will not invest in them anywhere,
I do not like Mr. Goxx…….for I am the market….and at the heart of this crux.
Written by anonymous drinking a beer after work.
May it please you,
Whitecap
-
- Posts: 9277
- Joined: Sun Dec 26, 2010 11:47 am
Re: Proof that nobody knows nothing [Hamster Performs Better Than Warren Buffett And The S&P 500]
With all that money, why is he living in a box in the first place?
He must be a Boglehead.
He must be a Boglehead.
- Cheez-It Guy
- Posts: 4007
- Joined: Sun Mar 03, 2019 3:20 pm
Re: Proof that nobody knows nothing [Hamster Performs Better Than Warren Buffett And The S&P 500]
Because the trades are limited to 20 Euro increments.
- Random Musings
- Posts: 6770
- Joined: Thu Feb 22, 2007 3:24 pm
- Location: Pennsylvania
Re: Proof that nobody knows nothing [Hamster Performs Better Than Warren Buffett And The S&P 500]
Mr. Goxx has set the price.
RM
RM
I figure the odds be fifty-fifty I just might have something to say. FZ
Re: Proof that nobody knows nothing [Hamster Performs Better Than Warren Buffett And The S&P 500]
A three month time frame is just a hiccup----we would need multiple
generations of hamsters doing their thing, say 10 years or more, to
get any kind of meaningful trend. Aside from all that, an interesting
experiment.
generations of hamsters doing their thing, say 10 years or more, to
get any kind of meaningful trend. Aside from all that, an interesting
experiment.
- typical.investor
- Posts: 5263
- Joined: Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:17 am
Re: Proof that nobody knows nothing [Hamster Performs Better Than Warren Buffett And The S&P 500]
Exactly.make_a_better_world wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:35 pm Looking at the hamster's specific trades, he only buys and sells a few highly correlated assets of the same specific class that are outside the stock market.
https://t.co/G4wFJt4tOH?amp=1
In the short time period of the experiment, virtually any basket combination of these assets available to the hamster outperformed the SP500. This is why the performance chart shows the fund tracked so closely to bitcoin. The conclusion that the extra performance of active management of equities is a reflection of only chance cannot be made from this experiment. It would have to be a hamster buying and selling stocks if compared to the stock market.
* I am not advocating to the forum to invest in what the hamster does.
Also, were taxes and trading costs considered? That could lower returns relative to those of the basket of available assets.
Actually though, I do know something. I know that equities are generating profits from the sales of their needed products. I don't believe society could exist without the products of the companies that index investors buy.
Re: Proof that nobody knows nothing [Hamster Performs Better Than Warren Buffett And The S&P 500]
Don't trust me, look it up. https://www.irs.gov/forms-instructions-and-publications