A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

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jakehefty17
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A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by jakehefty17 »

Hey Bogleheads,

I just wanted to get something off my chest regarding market lately.

I've noticed in the last couple years the amount of people I know that invest in the stock market has easily quadrupled. I've gotten asked about investing much more frequently. Co-workers and friends alike are investing in individual stocks, options, and cryptocurrency. This has them checking daily (sometimes hourly) on their holdings, at an almost obsessive level. Most have no idea what they're doing, and are just following trends they read about on whatever forums they're following. In the last couple years the stock market has exploded, and I'm reading articles about people quitting their jobs to stay at home and day-trade. Federal interest rates, cryptocurrency, Robinhood & Reddit are all making big news. I saw commercials for QQQ during NCAA march madness. Market enthusiasm seems limitless.

All that said, I'm a bit nervous for the inevitable market correction. I'm not making a prediction as to when it will happen, but it will eventually happen. My concern is that this new batch (almost a new breed) of investors will exacerbate that correction, when they suddenly see how much money they have lost and want to cut their losses. Irrational exuberance comes to mind. The last time everyone seemed excited about new technology and investing at the same time... makes me think of the dot com bubble.

I'm not planning on doing anything about these feelings. I'm staying the course on my asset allocation. Even if we have a correction/crash... I'm still young and should be able to ride it out. It's not an actionable post, so I think Theory, News & General is the right board.

Just an observation/musing about current events. I was wondering if anyone else is feeling this way? Opinions welcomed!

Thanks for humoring me and letting me air this out.
"The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence." -Charles Bukowski
Tamalak
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by Tamalak »

We're definitely reaching shoeshine boy territory. I expect lower than nominal returns in the future. Whether that takes the form of a crash or just a slow deflating is unknown.
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by retired@50 »

jakehefty17 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:02 am I've noticed in the last couple years the amount of people I know that invest in the stock market has easily quadrupled.
I've noticed this too! ^^^

More people are using 401k plans, more people are opening Roth IRAs, etc. It looks like investing has become fashionable.

The next bear market will tell us if it's just a fad.

Regards,
If liberty means anything at all it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear. -George Orwell
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by vanbogle59 »

retired@50 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:52 am
jakehefty17 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:02 am I've noticed in the last couple years the amount of people I know that invest in the stock market has easily quadrupled.
I've noticed this too! ^^^

More people are using 401k plans, more people are opening Roth IRAs, etc. It looks like investing has become fashionable.

The next bear market will tell us if it's just a fad.

Regards,
5 or 6 years ago I bought myself a weird little thing on the internet that will NOT be mentioned here.
Cost around $600. No one cared or even knew what I was talking about. But it made me feel hip and smart. A real trailblazer! :D
Now the whole world wants in. And I just feel like a lemming.
A lemming whose gamble is very much in the black. tyvm.

You can't always be ahead of the crowd on the road to prosperity. Eventually the crowd follows along. It doesn't (necessarily) mean you have lost your way. :sharebeer
Vtsax100
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by Vtsax100 »

So what? Yeah there will be a correction, all those people will panic and sell and I will buy on sale. Wash, rinse, repeat.
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by Raraculus »

I agree with your anecdotal observations regarding people investing in the financial markets. I've seen friends mention stocks, crypto, real estate, etc. These friends have not broached these topics in recent years, so it's a nice and refreshing change.

I think this trend will become secular. The Fed has too much riding on the stock market at the expense of all other financial systems, i.e., bonds, commodities, currency support, mortgages, etc. This will help solidify the general population's reliance on stock markets and ensure its continued participation.

In a nutshell, while there may be large drops in the future, the massive buying will keep the stock markets back on track and on its rising pace.
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by willthrill81 »

jakehefty17 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:02 amMy concern is that this new batch (almost a new breed) of investors will exacerbate that correction, when they suddenly see how much money they have lost and want to cut their losses. Irrational exuberance comes to mind. The last time everyone seemed excited about new technology and investing at the same time... makes me think of the dot com bubble.
Did that happen after the big correction last March?
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by livesoft »

It's like we're heading into the Dot-Com Crash of March 2000 all over again.
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by secondopinion »

willthrill81 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:14 pm
jakehefty17 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:02 amMy concern is that this new batch (almost a new breed) of investors will exacerbate that correction, when they suddenly see how much money they have lost and want to cut their losses. Irrational exuberance comes to mind. The last time everyone seemed excited about new technology and investing at the same time... makes me think of the dot com bubble.
Did that happen after the big correction last March?
It sure did not unless you count the liquidity crunch of March 2020. I am glad I just invest in a good deal rather than worrying what others are doing.

As far as March 2021, I am not even sure what happened.
Passive investing: not about making big bucks but making profits. Active investing: not about beating the market but meeting goals. Speculation: not about timing the market but taking profitable risks.
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by jakehefty17 »

willthrill81 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:14 pm
jakehefty17 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:02 amMy concern is that this new batch (almost a new breed) of investors will exacerbate that correction, when they suddenly see how much money they have lost and want to cut their losses. Irrational exuberance comes to mind. The last time everyone seemed excited about new technology and investing at the same time... makes me think of the dot com bubble.
Did that happen after the big correction last March?
I'm not sure. I know some sold, and some "bought the dip".

That correction was interesting. Momentum investing was trending. I didn't do anything about it.

Like I said, it's just a feeling... I'm not trying to predict anything. It could be years before it happens.
"The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence." -Charles Bukowski
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by Shallowpockets »

OP. Maybe you are one of those people you are talking about. Maybe your coworkers see you in the same way. Surely you were at one point. Maybe now you are settled on a BH approach, but in the beginning you were like them.
Your plan seems to be stay invested, yet you are worried about a correction even though you have many years ahead. So your emotions are a factor also, just as those who may bail have emotions.
Perhaps the run up in the shoeshine boy stocks has benefitted you all along and any correction would be back to the level at which those people were not in stocks so much.
BHs are apt to be a bit smug abut the philosophy and a bit dismissive of the shoeshine tips. Yet, that is what makes it all happen.
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by jarjarM »

jakehefty17 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:25 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:14 pm
jakehefty17 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:02 amMy concern is that this new batch (almost a new breed) of investors will exacerbate that correction, when they suddenly see how much money they have lost and want to cut their losses. Irrational exuberance comes to mind. The last time everyone seemed excited about new technology and investing at the same time... makes me think of the dot com bubble.
Did that happen after the big correction last March?
I'm not sure. I know some sold, and some "bought the dip".

That correction was interesting. Momentum investing was trending. I didn't do anything about it.

Like I said, it's just a feeling... I'm not trying to predict anything. It could be years before it happens.
Last time this happened (in the 90s), it took about 4-5 years to work it out of the system. So we have some leeways :twisted: :beer
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by Lucien786 »

I think the scenario you laid out might actually be kind of optimistic. It would be great if there was some severe correction that washed out all the less committed players. That would probably be beneficial to long-term investors. Worse than that would be if nothing really happens. "Elevated" valuations where every downturn is matched by new money "buying the dip," and asset prices perpetually supported by the Fed. Not much room to go higher, but no real opportunity to buy in while lower. You have to keep playing but for much less benefit.
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

in bear markets stocks will return to their rightful owners.

this has always been true and always will.

i witnessed a coworker sell everything towards the end of 2008.

I wonder if she ever got back in and if so, when?

People tend to sell out during the panic and buy back in after the market has raged ahead.

those who stay the course do best.

the stock market is the only market i know of that when the store goes on sale everyone rushes towards the exits.
It's hard to accept the truth when the lies were exactly what you wanted to hear. Investing is simple, but not easy. Buy, hold & rebalance low cost index funds & manage taxable events. Asking Portfolio Questions | Wiki
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by jakehefty17 »

Shallowpockets wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:57 pm OP. Maybe you are one of those people you are talking about. Maybe your coworkers see you in the same way. Surely you were at one point. Maybe now you are settled on a BH approach, but in the beginning you were like them.
Your plan seems to be stay invested, yet you are worried about a correction even though you have many years ahead. So your emotions are a factor also, just as those who may bail have emotions.
Perhaps the run up in the shoeshine boy stocks has benefitted you all along and any correction would be back to the level at which those people were not in stocks so much.
BHs are apt to be a bit smug abut the philosophy and a bit dismissive of the shoeshine tips. Yet, that is what makes it all happen.
I didn't mean to come across as smug, and I apologize if I bothered you. I was fortunate to find BH when I started my career, so I basically built my asset allocation right away. I have been investing for about 6-7 years now. I lurked for the first few years. I have emotions surrounding the stock market just like anyone else. I'm merely expressing some thought's I've had surrounding the market lately, and nobody should care what I think. I'm a nobody :beer
"The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence." -Charles Bukowski
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by mikejuss »

Those are interesting thoughts, OP. But what, exactly, is your fear: that those who are investing according to trends they read about in the financial press will suddenly sell? I'm unclear on what you're worried about.
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by willthrill81 »

jakehefty17 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:25 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:14 pm
jakehefty17 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:02 amMy concern is that this new batch (almost a new breed) of investors will exacerbate that correction, when they suddenly see how much money they have lost and want to cut their losses. Irrational exuberance comes to mind. The last time everyone seemed excited about new technology and investing at the same time... makes me think of the dot com bubble.
Did that happen after the big correction last March?
I'm not sure. I know some sold, and some "bought the dip".

That correction was interesting. Momentum investing was trending. I didn't do anything about it.

Like I said, it's just a feeling... I'm not trying to predict anything. It could be years before it happens.
If these traders exacerbated the correction, they must have also reversed their actions in short order since it was the shortest bear market in U.S. history.

I don't think that the theory holds water.
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

jakehefty17 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 1:33 pm
Shallowpockets wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:57 pm OP. Maybe you are one of those people you are talking about. Maybe your coworkers see you in the same way. Surely you were at one point. Maybe now you are settled on a BH approach, but in the beginning you were like them.
Your plan seems to be stay invested, yet you are worried about a correction even though you have many years ahead. So your emotions are a factor also, just as those who may bail have emotions.
Perhaps the run up in the shoeshine boy stocks has benefitted you all along and any correction would be back to the level at which those people were not in stocks so much.
BHs are apt to be a bit smug abut the philosophy and a bit dismissive of the shoeshine tips. Yet, that is what makes it all happen.
I have been investing for about 6-7 years now. I lurked for the first few years. I have emotions surrounding the stock market just like anyone else.
i think with experience (provided one learns from those experiences) investing should get easier over time. some may argue with this because you risk losing more money as you accumulate more even if the percentage you hold in stock is less than when you were younger. But still, when you've been through enough crashes and thought enough about market declines and recoveries and thought about your need, ability and willingness to take risk and design a portfolio to accept your worst tolerable losses, this is supposed to get less scary.

It should be more scary to those who haven't been through a bear market before.

you always have to be prepared to lose money. Many say be prepared to lose 50% of your money at any time. If you're not prepared for that, what are you to do? If you are prepared for that, you don't respond emotionally and badly (panic selling). If you are prepared for that you designed your portfolio to meet your maximum tolerable loss:

Image

If you choose your allocation after having taken time to think about this (most don't think about this at all) then there's nothing to get emotional about. In fact, you should tune out the noise. Stop reading articles about the market (they're useless mostly) and watching cnbc and stop talking to people about investing, especially if your friends panic selling will cause you to want to panic sell.

Be more like rip van winkle. Invest and forget about it. You'll be amazed how much you have at retirement, but only because you consistently invested for growth over decades.

But you will always have to deal with losses, even in retirement, if you have a percentage of assets in stocks. And you risk losing more even in retirement than you did while you were younger, even if you're conservative in retirement and were aggressive in younger days:

Age 25 $6000 in Roth IRA, 100% stock
stocks fall 50%
you've lost 50%
you've lost $3000
You have $3000 left (from $6000 originally) and 50% of your money remaining

Age 65 $600,000 in Roth IRA (hopefully more, just showing 100X the amount when you started out) BUT, more conservative 30% in stock.
stocks fall 50%
you've lost 15% (why? 50% decline on 30% of your money. .50 X .30 = .15)
15% of $600,000 = $90,000 lost
you still have 85% left or $510,000

so it's more painful to lose $90,000 than $3000 right?

but you had a conservative portfolio in retirement and lost SO MUCH MORE!!

But you have SO MUCH LEFT.

Do you think people think about this stuff at all?

I have never heard anyone explain that to me.

No wonder people keep freaking out as time goes on. Their portfolio grows (maybe) and they lose more money even though they're getting more conservative over time!

this either has to be dealt with or avoided. you either invest or you don't.
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by jakehefty17 »

willthrill81 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 1:52 pm
jakehefty17 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:25 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:14 pm
jakehefty17 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:02 amMy concern is that this new batch (almost a new breed) of investors will exacerbate that correction, when they suddenly see how much money they have lost and want to cut their losses. Irrational exuberance comes to mind. The last time everyone seemed excited about new technology and investing at the same time... makes me think of the dot com bubble.
Did that happen after the big correction last March?
I'm not sure. I know some sold, and some "bought the dip".

That correction was interesting. Momentum investing was trending. I didn't do anything about it.

Like I said, it's just a feeling... I'm not trying to predict anything. It could be years before it happens.
If these traders exacerbated the correction, they must have also reversed their actions in short order since it was the shortest bear market in U.S. history.

I don't think that the theory holds water.
That's fair enough. I wasn't intending to make a theory, just discussing a thought.
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by jakehefty17 »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:01 pm
jakehefty17 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 1:33 pm
Shallowpockets wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:57 pm OP. Maybe you are one of those people you are talking about. Maybe your coworkers see you in the same way. Surely you were at one point. Maybe now you are settled on a BH approach, but in the beginning you were like them.
Your plan seems to be stay invested, yet you are worried about a correction even though you have many years ahead. So your emotions are a factor also, just as those who may bail have emotions.
Perhaps the run up in the shoeshine boy stocks has benefitted you all along and any correction would be back to the level at which those people were not in stocks so much.
BHs are apt to be a bit smug abut the philosophy and a bit dismissive of the shoeshine tips. Yet, that is what makes it all happen.
I have been investing for about 6-7 years now. I lurked for the first few years. I have emotions surrounding the stock market just like anyone else.
i think with experience (provided one learns from those experiences) investing should get easier over time. some may argue with this because you risk losing more money as you accumulate more even if the percentage you hold in stock is less than when you were younger. But still, when you've been through enough crashes and thought enough about market declines and recoveries and thought about your need, ability and willingness to take risk and design a portfolio to accept your worst tolerable losses, this is supposed to get less scary.

It should be more scary to those who haven't been through a bear market before.

you always have to be prepared to lose money. Many say be prepared to lose 50% of your money at any time. If you're not prepared for that, what are you to do? If you are prepared for that, you don't respond emotionally and badly (panic selling). If you are prepared for that you designed your portfolio to meet your maximum tolerable loss:

Image

If you choose your allocation after having taken time to think about this (most don't think about this at all) then there's nothing to get emotional about. In fact, you should tune out the noise. Stop reading articles about the market (they're useless mostly) and watching cnbc and stop talking to people about investing, especially if your friends panic selling will cause you to want to panic sell.

Be more like rip van winkle. Invest and forget about it. You'll be amazed how much you have at retirement, but only because you consistently invested for growth over decades.
Thanks for the response!

I agree, I should probably just tune this out instead of discussing it on the forum. The plan is to stay the course.

Some of these responses have taken me off guard a bit, didn't mean to step on any toes. I was merely hoping for a discussion regarding if anyone else had these specific feelings surrounding what's going on in the market the last couple years. Seeing that the NCAA march madness was sponsored by QQQ kind of blew my mind... there's some interesting trends going on that I've never seen before in my lifetime. I used to be the weird one for caring about investing, now everyone is into it. It's just odd.
"The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence." -Charles Bukowski
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by secondopinion »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 1:13 pm in bear markets stocks will return to their rightful owners.

this has always been true and always will.

i witnessed a coworker sell everything towards the end of 2008.

I wonder if she ever got back in and if so, when?

People tend to sell out during the panic and buy back in after the market has raged ahead.

those who stay the course do best.

the stock market is the only market i know of that when the store goes on sale everyone rushes towards the exits.
One of the best statements of all time about the market.
Passive investing: not about making big bucks but making profits. Active investing: not about beating the market but meeting goals. Speculation: not about timing the market but taking profitable risks.
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by secondopinion »

willthrill81 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 1:52 pm
jakehefty17 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:25 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:14 pm
jakehefty17 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:02 amMy concern is that this new batch (almost a new breed) of investors will exacerbate that correction, when they suddenly see how much money they have lost and want to cut their losses. Irrational exuberance comes to mind. The last time everyone seemed excited about new technology and investing at the same time... makes me think of the dot com bubble.
Did that happen after the big correction last March?
I'm not sure. I know some sold, and some "bought the dip".

That correction was interesting. Momentum investing was trending. I didn't do anything about it.

Like I said, it's just a feeling... I'm not trying to predict anything. It could be years before it happens.
If these traders exacerbated the correction, they must have also reversed their actions in short order since it was the shortest bear market in U.S. history.

I don't think that the theory holds water.
Those who fought the downward trend won that time. I tried to do a leveraged tax loss harvest (because I had a lot of losses in March 2020), and ended up with a bunch of money instead.

(Leveraged tax loss harvesting is to borrow money to purchase a losing investment, wait 30 days, and then sell the stocks that lost. It is risky in comparison to other methods to tax loss harvest)
Passive investing: not about making big bucks but making profits. Active investing: not about beating the market but meeting goals. Speculation: not about timing the market but taking profitable risks.
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by surfstar »

Which one of the things mentioned is the black swan in the coal mine? Will it be different this time? Will the prognosticators be proven right with their 1,000 attempt to foretell the future?

Stay tuned for the Nobody Knows Nuthin 2021 contest!
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by 000 »

I agree and have felt the same for a while, but this doesn't necessarily mean a crash is imminent. Rather, I view it as a present risk that should be considered in determining investment strategy.
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by nedsaid »

jakehefty17 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:02 am Hey Bogleheads,

I just wanted to get something off my chest regarding market lately.

I've noticed in the last couple years the amount of people I know that invest in the stock market has easily quadrupled. I've gotten asked about investing much more frequently. Co-workers and friends alike are investing in individual stocks, options, and cryptocurrency. This has them checking daily (sometimes hourly) on their holdings, at an almost obsessive level. Most have no idea what they're doing, and are just following trends they read about on whatever forums they're following. In the last couple years the stock market has exploded, and I'm reading articles about people quitting their jobs to stay at home and day-trade. Federal interest rates, cryptocurrency, Robinhood & Reddit are all making big news. I saw commercials for QQQ during NCAA march madness. Market enthusiasm seems limitless.

All that said, I'm a bit nervous for the inevitable market correction. I'm not making a prediction as to when it will happen, but it will eventually happen. My concern is that this new batch (almost a new breed) of investors will exacerbate that correction, when they suddenly see how much money they have lost and want to cut their losses. Irrational exuberance comes to mind. The last time everyone seemed excited about new technology and investing at the same time... makes me think of the dot com bubble.

I'm not planning on doing anything about these feelings. I'm staying the course on my asset allocation. Even if we have a correction/crash... I'm still young and should be able to ride it out. It's not an actionable post, so I think Theory, News & General is the right board.

Just an observation/musing about current events. I was wondering if anyone else is feeling this way? Opinions welcomed!

Thanks for humoring me and letting me air this out.
You are on to something here, it is troubling when you see too much optimism about the markets from ordinary people. What I would say is that
new market highs are a great time to rebalance your portfolio to your target asset allocation if you haven't done so in a while. If you are really nervous, you can take some profits here, better to "panic" when the market is near all-time highs than to sell your stocks at the bottom. Too many people sell at the bottom and then get back in the market after the markets have recovered, that is one of the best ways that I can think of to ruin a long term investment plan for retirement.

What happens is when people get excessively optimistic, the stock market runs out of new buyers to propel stocks even higher. When a bull market runs out of buyers, that bull market comes to an end as stocks have nowhere to go but down. So I can see why you are concerned about this.

As for me, I am not doing anything other than rebalancing whenever the stock market hits all-time highs. I realize this reduces my returns a bit but I am 62 years now and need to control risk.

But don't overdo the profit taking thing, particularly if you are a younger investor. Time in the market is what makes you money and not timing of the market. Market timing or even strategic asset allocation are both hard to do. You do better if you just leave things alone and let your winners run. If you are 40 or under, you don't have to think about rebalancing unless your asset allocation between stocks and bonds gets way out of whack. Remember, you need enough bonds in your portfolio, whatever that number is, to stay the course when markets get bad. What you don't want to do is sell stocks when the market is down, if you can ride through the ups and downs of the market with your stocks, you will succeed as an investor.

Not always easy to know each time whether to let your stocks run in a bull market or to rebalance your portfolio. The younger you are as an investor, the more you should just let winners run. As you get older, you need to be more diligent about having a mix of stocks and bonds appropriate for your age and rebalancing when you need to.

You didn't say how old you were in your post, that would be a good piece of information.
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by FoundingFather »

jakehefty17 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:02 am I've noticed in the last couple years the amount of people I know that invest in the stock market has easily quadrupled... Just an observation/musing about current events. I was wondering if anyone else is feeling this way? Opinions welcomed!
I have felt the same as you... I have some data on the topic, but I am not sure how to interpret all of it. The picture below shows the share of US adults that have invested in the stock market. Overall, our doesn't show anything too impressive (note that the labels are shifted by one year in relation to the bars):

Image

In the image and story from Morningstar below, they tabulated the net inflows (black) and outflows (red) for various investment categories for June (June 2021) and the twelve months prior to June 2021 (TTM). In the first half of 2021, more money has poured into the stock market than any other 6 month period over the last 30 years. Cryptocurrencies also have ~$1 trillion invested total into them, give or take, which would not be included in the below table, and most of which has a occurred in recent years:

Image

https://www.morningstar.com/articles/10 ... ource=link

So, in the end, it seems that the tide is rising for various investments, but that the share of Americans involved in investing may not have changed as much as it seems.

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SpideyIndexer
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by SpideyIndexer »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:01 pm
jakehefty17 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 1:33 pm
Shallowpockets wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:57 pm OP. Maybe you are one of those people you are talking about. Maybe your coworkers see you in the same way. Surely you were at one point. Maybe now you are settled on a BH approach, but in the beginning you were like them.
Your plan seems to be stay invested, yet you are worried about a correction even though you have many years ahead. So your emotions are a factor also, just as those who may bail have emotions.
Perhaps the run up in the shoeshine boy stocks has benefitted you all along and any correction would be back to the level at which those people were not in stocks so much.
BHs are apt to be a bit smug abut the philosophy and a bit dismissive of the shoeshine tips. Yet, that is what makes it all happen.
I have been investing for about 6-7 years now. I lurked for the first few years. I have emotions surrounding the stock market just like anyone else.
i think with experience (provided one learns from those experiences) investing should get easier over time. some may argue with this because you risk losing more money as you accumulate more even if the percentage you hold in stock is less than when you were younger. But still, when you've been through enough crashes and thought enough about market declines and recoveries and thought about your need, ability and willingness to take risk and design a portfolio to accept your worst tolerable losses, this is supposed to get less scary.

It should be more scary to those who haven't been through a bear market before.

you always have to be prepared to lose money. Many say be prepared to lose 50% of your money at any time. If you're not prepared for that, what are you to do? If you are prepared for that, you don't respond emotionally and badly (panic selling). If you are prepared for that you designed your portfolio to meet your maximum tolerable loss:

Image

If you choose your allocation after having taken time to think about this (most don't think about this at all) then there's nothing to get emotional about. In fact, you should tune out the noise. Stop reading articles about the market (they're useless mostly) and watching cnbc and stop talking to people about investing, especially if your friends panic selling will cause you to want to panic sell.

Be more like rip van winkle. Invest and forget about it. You'll be amazed how much you have at retirement, but only because you consistently invested for growth over decades.

But you will always have to deal with losses, even in retirement, if you have a percentage of assets in stocks. And you risk losing more even in retirement than you did while you were younger, even if you're conservative in retirement and were aggressive in younger days:

Age 25 $6000 in Roth IRA, 100% stock
stocks fall 50%
you've lost 50%
you've lost $3000
You have $3000 left (from $6000 originally) and 50% of your money remaining

Age 65 $600,000 in Roth IRA (hopefully more, just showing 100X the amount when you started out) BUT, more conservative 30% in stock.
stocks fall 50%
you've lost 15% (why? 50% decline on 30% of your money. .50 X .30 = .15)
15% of $600,000 = $90,000 lost
you still have 85% left or $510,000

so it's more painful to lose $90,000 than $3000 right?

but you had a conservative portfolio in retirement and lost SO MUCH MORE!!

But you have SO MUCH LEFT.

Do you think people think about this stuff at all?

I have never heard anyone explain that to me.

No wonder people keep freaking out as time goes on. Their portfolio grows (maybe) and they lose more money even though they're getting more conservative over time!

this either has to be dealt with or avoided. you either invest or you don't.
I don't agree with the table.

Let's say you invest 20K in stock and 80K in bonds. You have 100K in assets. If stocks drop to half their value, now you have 10K + 80K = 90K. You have lost 10%, not 5%. The only line in the table that is correct is the last. If you invest 100% in stocks, you will lose 50% of your invested assets if stocks drop to half their original value.

The verbage for the 30% stock allocation is correct. But the table should show losses starting at 10% at 20% stock allocation, increasing to 45% at 90% stock allocation.

Now, who knows for sure if equity losses will be limited to 50%? I'd like to believe it.
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by Northern Flicker »

It is a concern. I worry more about algorithmic trading getting into feedback loops with other market participants than I worry about retail day traders. Market ETFs enable easy buying, selling and shorting the whole market in one trade just like S&P 500 futures contracts did during the October 1987 crash.

We have more guard rails today, so we have just had a flash crash or two, but the parallels with what led to Oct 1987 of algorithmic trading of ETFs today are disconcerting.

But honestly, stocks are always risky. Things seeming calm and orderly does not preclude a market crisis seeming to come out of nowhere.
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by Northern Flicker »

SpideyIndexer wrote: I don't agree with the table.

Let's say you invest 20K in stock and 80K in bonds. You have 100K in assets. If stocks drop to half their value, now you have 10K + 80K = 90K. You have lost 10%, not 5%. The only line in the table that is correct is the last. If you invest 100% in stocks, you will lose 50% of your invested assets if stocks drop to half their original value.

The verbage for the 30% stock allocation is correct. But the table should show losses starting at 10% at 20% stock allocation, increasing to 45% at 90% stock allocation.

Now, who knows for sure if equity losses will be limited to 50%? I'd like to believe it.
You are correct-- stock allocation should be no more than double your maximum acceptable loss if stocks can fall 50%.

They can fall more. Without getting into the great depression (much greater than 50% drawdown), in 2007-2009 the US market was down about 51% peak to trough, developed markets non-US about 57%, and emerging markets about 63%. Observe the max. drawdown field:

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion3_3=100
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by rossington »

SpideyIndexer wrote: Fri Sep 24, 2021 1:52 am
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:01 pm you always have to be prepared to lose money. Many say be prepared to lose 50% of your money at any time. If you're not prepared for that, what are you to do? If you are prepared for that, you don't respond emotionally and badly (panic selling). If you are prepared for that you designed your portfolio to meet your maximum tolerable loss:

Image
I don't agree with the table.

Let's say you invest 20K in stock and 80K in bonds. You have 100K in assets. If stocks drop to half their value, now you have 10K + 80K = 90K. You have lost 10%, not 5%. The only line in the table that is correct is the last. If you invest 100% in stocks, you will lose 50% of your invested assets if stocks drop to half their original value.
Correct.

But the post is spot on.
"Success is going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm." Winston Churchill.
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by PoppyA »

The trend away from traditional pensions to employee 401k’s may contribute.

Malinvestmen of $ (printing of $ by the fed working hand in glove with the political class who ALL spend in order to stay in office) is the sword to be fear IMHO. Capital investments are based on a false sense of prosperity (newly printed $ flowing into the system) not on true prosperity.
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

SpideyIndexer wrote: Fri Sep 24, 2021 1:52 am
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:01 pm
jakehefty17 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 1:33 pm
Shallowpockets wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:57 pm OP. Maybe you are one of those people you are talking about. Maybe your coworkers see you in the same way. Surely you were at one point. Maybe now you are settled on a BH approach, but in the beginning you were like them.
Your plan seems to be stay invested, yet you are worried about a correction even though you have many years ahead. So your emotions are a factor also, just as those who may bail have emotions.
Perhaps the run up in the shoeshine boy stocks has benefitted you all along and any correction would be back to the level at which those people were not in stocks so much.
BHs are apt to be a bit smug abut the philosophy and a bit dismissive of the shoeshine tips. Yet, that is what makes it all happen.
I have been investing for about 6-7 years now. I lurked for the first few years. I have emotions surrounding the stock market just like anyone else.
i think with experience (provided one learns from those experiences) investing should get easier over time. some may argue with this because you risk losing more money as you accumulate more even if the percentage you hold in stock is less than when you were younger. But still, when you've been through enough crashes and thought enough about market declines and recoveries and thought about your need, ability and willingness to take risk and design a portfolio to accept your worst tolerable losses, this is supposed to get less scary.

It should be more scary to those who haven't been through a bear market before.

you always have to be prepared to lose money. Many say be prepared to lose 50% of your money at any time. If you're not prepared for that, what are you to do? If you are prepared for that, you don't respond emotionally and badly (panic selling). If you are prepared for that you designed your portfolio to meet your maximum tolerable loss:

Image

If you choose your allocation after having taken time to think about this (most don't think about this at all) then there's nothing to get emotional about. In fact, you should tune out the noise. Stop reading articles about the market (they're useless mostly) and watching cnbc and stop talking to people about investing, especially if your friends panic selling will cause you to want to panic sell.

Be more like rip van winkle. Invest and forget about it. You'll be amazed how much you have at retirement, but only because you consistently invested for growth over decades.

But you will always have to deal with losses, even in retirement, if you have a percentage of assets in stocks. And you risk losing more even in retirement than you did while you were younger, even if you're conservative in retirement and were aggressive in younger days:

Age 25 $6000 in Roth IRA, 100% stock
stocks fall 50%
you've lost 50%
you've lost $3000
You have $3000 left (from $6000 originally) and 50% of your money remaining

Age 65 $600,000 in Roth IRA (hopefully more, just showing 100X the amount when you started out) BUT, more conservative 30% in stock.
stocks fall 50%
you've lost 15% (why? 50% decline on 30% of your money. .50 X .30 = .15)
15% of $600,000 = $90,000 lost
you still have 85% left or $510,000

so it's more painful to lose $90,000 than $3000 right?

but you had a conservative portfolio in retirement and lost SO MUCH MORE!!

But you have SO MUCH LEFT.

Do you think people think about this stuff at all?

I have never heard anyone explain that to me.

No wonder people keep freaking out as time goes on. Their portfolio grows (maybe) and they lose more money even though they're getting more conservative over time!

this either has to be dealt with or avoided. you either invest or you don't.

I don't agree with the table.


Let's say you invest 20K in stock and 80K in bonds. You have 100K in assets. If stocks drop to half their value, now you have 10K + 80K = 90K. You have lost 10%, not 5%. The only line in the table that is correct is the last. If you invest 100% in stocks, you will lose 50% of your invested assets if stocks drop to half their original value.

The verbage for the 30% stock allocation is correct. But the table should show losses starting at 10% at 20% stock allocation, increasing to 45% at 90% stock allocation.

Now, who knows for sure if equity losses will be limited to 50%? I'd like to believe it.
you don't have to agree with the table. You are entitled to your own opinions but not your own facts as they say.

the fact is the table is correct and showed the various losses for various portfolios in 1973-1974 (Data provided by Author Larry Swedroe on Morningstar’s ‘Bogleheads Unite’ Forum), source: https://investingroadmap.wordpress.com/2011/02/25/205/

the reason it was a 5% loss and not 10% loss in the example you use (along with the other percentage losses for the other allocations which you may also disagree with) is because of how bonds performed at that time when stocks lost 50%. So if you have a gain in your bonds that will offset your losses (less the more you have in stocks and more the less you have in stocks).

Losses don't have to be limited to 50%, i believe the stock market lost around 80% in the Great Depression. But we've also learned a lot and many things in the system are different today than back then, so while it's possible, i'm not sure how probable losing 80% of stock market value might be. If there's a different situation than the past (like a nuclear holocaust) anything is possible I guess.
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by Northern Flicker »

Max drawdown of 60% TSM 40% TBM since 1993 was about 31% not the table's 25%. If intermediate treasuries are used for the bond holdings, it was about 28%.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... tion3_2=40

Not every bear market looks like 1973/74. Most likely the book was written before 2000, and the 1987 crash was too atypical, so 1973/74 was the next most recent at the time.
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by Northern Flicker »

It is not uncommon for investment books in the popular press to incorporate recency bias or historical sample bias. I won't speak to the one in question.
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by nedsaid »

Northern Flicker wrote: Fri Sep 24, 2021 2:14 am It is a concern. I worry more about algorithmic trading getting into feedback loops with other market participants than I worry about retail day traders. Market ETFs enable easy buying, selling and shorting the whole market in one trade just like S&P 500 futures contracts did during the October 1987 crash.

We have more guard rails today, so we have just had a flash crash or two, but the parallels with what led to Oct 1987 of algorithmic trading of ETFs today are disconcerting.

But honestly, stocks are always risky. Things seeming calm and orderly does not preclude a market crisis seeming to come out of nowhere.
Yep. The "Portfolio Insurance" of programmed trading that was supposed to make the markets less volatile was actually one of the big causes of the October 1987 stock market crash. Sometimes we are just too clever and wind up outsmarting ourselves.
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by mrspock »

Honestly, accumulators should be begging… dreaming for a crash.

As for feelings? They are as you well know, a detriment to investing. I know you anecdotes with “people you know”, which by itself, is maybe a place to start some research, but nothing is hang my hat on.

The metric you might want to examine is % of shares held by retail investors or % of volume by retail investors. Neither of which has come close to quadrupling. The latter is up from 15% to 20% from 2014 to 2020. Up to be sure… but nothing close to quadruple.

Source: https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/indivi ... 1598866200
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by jakehefty17 »

nedsaid wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 5:30 pm You are on to something here, it is troubling when you see too much optimism about the markets from ordinary people. What I would say is that
new market highs are a great time to rebalance your portfolio to your target asset allocation if you haven't done so in a while. If you are really nervous, you can take some profits here, better to "panic" when the market is near all-time highs than to sell your stocks at the bottom. Too many people sell at the bottom and then get back in the market after the markets have recovered, that is one of the best ways that I can think of to ruin a long term investment plan for retirement.

What happens is when people get excessively optimistic, the stock market runs out of new buyers to propel stocks even higher. When a bull market runs out of buyers, that bull market comes to an end as stocks have nowhere to go but down. So I can see why you are concerned about this.

As for me, I am not doing anything other than rebalancing whenever the stock market hits all-time highs. I realize this reduces my returns a bit but I am 62 years now and need to control risk.

But don't overdo the profit taking thing, particularly if you are a younger investor. Time in the market is what makes you money and not timing of the market. Market timing or even strategic asset allocation are both hard to do. You do better if you just leave things alone and let your winners run. If you are 40 or under, you don't have to think about rebalancing unless your asset allocation between stocks and bonds gets way out of whack. Remember, you need enough bonds in your portfolio, whatever that number is, to stay the course when markets get bad. What you don't want to do is sell stocks when the market is down, if you can ride through the ups and downs of the market with your stocks, you will succeed as an investor.

Not always easy to know each time whether to let your stocks run in a bull market or to rebalance your portfolio. The younger you are as an investor, the more you should just let winners run. As you get older, you need to be more diligent about having a mix of stocks and bonds appropriate for your age and rebalancing when you need to.

You didn't say how old you were in your post, that would be a good piece of information.
I'm 30.

Not planning on making any investment changes.
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by CyclingDuo »

jakehefty17 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:02 am Hey Bogleheads,

I just wanted to get something off my chest regarding market lately.

I've noticed in the last couple years the amount of people I know that invest in the stock market has easily quadrupled. I've gotten asked about investing much more frequently. Co-workers and friends alike are investing in individual stocks, options, and cryptocurrency. This has them checking daily (sometimes hourly) on their holdings, at an almost obsessive level. Most have no idea what they're doing, and are just following trends they read about on whatever forums they're following. In the last couple years the stock market has exploded, and I'm reading articles about people quitting their jobs to stay at home and day-trade. Federal interest rates, cryptocurrency, Robinhood & Reddit are all making big news. I saw commercials for QQQ during NCAA march madness. Market enthusiasm seems limitless.

All that said, I'm a bit nervous for the inevitable market correction. I'm not making a prediction as to when it will happen, but it will eventually happen. My concern is that this new batch (almost a new breed) of investors will exacerbate that correction, when they suddenly see how much money they have lost and want to cut their losses. Irrational exuberance comes to mind. The last time everyone seemed excited about new technology and investing at the same time... makes me think of the dot com bubble.

I'm not planning on doing anything about these feelings. I'm staying the course on my asset allocation. Even if we have a correction/crash... I'm still young and should be able to ride it out. It's not an actionable post, so I think Theory, News & General is the right board.

Just an observation/musing about current events. I was wondering if anyone else is feeling this way? Opinions welcomed!

Thanks for humoring me and letting me air this out.
Demographics remain an important element of secular bull markets. A good recent example of showing that influence on the markets was Ciovacco Capital's weekly video from this past Friday evening:

https://www.ccmmarketmodel.com/short-ta ... way-to-run

He does a nice job of showing the importance of the Baby Boomer demographic for the stock market between 1982 and 2000, and highlights how the Millennials are impacting the 2016 to 2034 time period for the markets that we are in.

Being one of the younger Boomers, I can relate to what things "felt" like during the 1980-2000 period. It's not surprising to me the influence that Millennials are having on the current economy.

Joe Fahmy (The Next Big Move) has done some excellent work on the relationship between demographics and markets as well. There are many others, but the video above provides a nice summary of the demographic studies that others have been doing as well.

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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by JoMoney »

You're not alone, I became very uneasy after some people at my work place that previously had no interest in financial markets seemed to get enthusiastically active in crypto, options trading, meme stocks, trading schemes, and more. A lot of it seemed to happen over the COVID panic when we were mostly out of the office, but hasn't stopped. This situation, along with a few other items like the rise of Tesla and it's addition to the S&P index gave me a very uncomfortable feeling. The feeling got the better of me, and I wound up making some changes to my equity holdings early this year. I have some regrets about letting it get to me, the S&P 500 has continued to do well (better than what my changes were towards), and after having cracked the door open into trading and making adjustments to my portfolio that I had otherwise done absolutely nothing with for 13 years I get the itch to start making other 'adjustments' :annoyed
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by Ramjet »

jakehefty17 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:02 am makes me think of the dot com bubble
I have noticed many of the same things as you, but I don't think it is a bubble. I see pockets of euphoria, like crypto and the meme stocks, but not euphoria with the entire market. In fact, when people talk about the entire market they are not positive at all. They think U.S. returns are going to lag over the next 10 years, valuations are too high, ex-U.S. stinks, and they are afraid of a market crash like you mentioned. If people are talking about a bubble, I tend to think that there isn't one. Bubbles usually hit investors like a freight train you don't see coming.
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by Ramjet »

JoMoney wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 7:49 am You're not alone, I became very uneasy after some people at my work place that previously had no interest in financial markets seemed to get enthusiastically active in crypto, options trading, meme stocks, trading schemes, and more. A lot of it seemed to happen over the COVID panic when we were mostly out of the office, but hasn't stopped. This situation, along with a few other items like the rise of Tesla and it's addition to the S&P index gave me a very uncomfortable feeling. The feeling got the better of me, and I wound up making some changes to my equity holdings early this year. I have some regrets about letting it get to me, the S&P 500 has continued to do well (better than what my changes were towards), and after having cracked the door open into trading and making adjustments to my portfolio that I had otherwise done absolutely nothing with for 13 years I get the itch to start making other 'adjustments' :annoyed
Curious as to what your changes were. If I remember right you liked the Buffet portfolio, something like S&P 500 and 10% treasuries. Did you buy international stocks?
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by JoMoney »

Ramjet wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 8:12 am
JoMoney wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 7:49 am You're not alone, I became very uneasy after some people at my work place that previously had no interest in financial markets seemed to get enthusiastically active in crypto, options trading, meme stocks, trading schemes, and more. A lot of it seemed to happen over the COVID panic when we were mostly out of the office, but hasn't stopped. This situation, along with a few other items like the rise of Tesla and it's addition to the S&P index gave me a very uncomfortable feeling. The feeling got the better of me, and I wound up making some changes to my equity holdings early this year. I have some regrets about letting it get to me, the S&P 500 has continued to do well (better than what my changes were towards), and after having cracked the door open into trading and making adjustments to my portfolio that I had otherwise done absolutely nothing with for 13 years I get the itch to start making other 'adjustments' :annoyed
Curious as to what your changes were. If I remember right you liked the Buffet portfolio, something like S&P 500 and 10% treasuries. Did you buy international stocks?
Yes, I previously used the S&P 500 and that was it. I do still hold some, but there's also a heavy tilt that I don't want to share on here. I'm personally ok with my holdings, I can even make reasoning that it has some basis in Bogle'isms, but it's not "The Three Fund Portfolio" and I still remember the (surprising to me) lashing I got on here from sharing that I just used an S&P 500 fund. I'm not looking for advice on it, nor to argue about it, nor to pump my holdings relative to a total market index (which I think is a fine holding, even if it's not what I'm doing.) So far, relative to the S&P 500's performance my change has been a mistake, and I do think making changes to the portfolio is usually a mistake, and that's all I want to say about it.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by Ramjet »

JoMoney wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 8:33 am
Ramjet wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 8:12 am
JoMoney wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 7:49 am You're not alone, I became very uneasy after some people at my work place that previously had no interest in financial markets seemed to get enthusiastically active in crypto, options trading, meme stocks, trading schemes, and more. A lot of it seemed to happen over the COVID panic when we were mostly out of the office, but hasn't stopped. This situation, along with a few other items like the rise of Tesla and it's addition to the S&P index gave me a very uncomfortable feeling. The feeling got the better of me, and I wound up making some changes to my equity holdings early this year. I have some regrets about letting it get to me, the S&P 500 has continued to do well (better than what my changes were towards), and after having cracked the door open into trading and making adjustments to my portfolio that I had otherwise done absolutely nothing with for 13 years I get the itch to start making other 'adjustments' :annoyed
Curious as to what your changes were. If I remember right you liked the Buffet portfolio, something like S&P 500 and 10% treasuries. Did you buy international stocks?
Yes, I previously used the S&P 500 and that was it. I do still hold some, but there's also a heavy tilt that I don't want to share on here. I'm personally ok with my holdings, I can even make reasoning that it has some basis in Bogle'isms, but it's not "The Three Fund Portfolio" and I still remember the (surprising to me) lashing I got on here from sharing that I just used an S&P 500 fund. I'm not looking for advice on it, nor to argue about it, nor to pump my holdings relative to a total market index (which I think is a fine holding, even if it's not what I'm doing.) So far, relative to the S&P 500's performance my change has been a mistake, and I do think making changes to the portfolio is usually a mistake, and that's all I want to say about it.
Fair enough. On a side note, I don't know why people lose their minds on here if you are not market weight or don't hold the three fund portfolio
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Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by nedsaid »

jakehefty17 wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 6:24 am
I'm 30.

Not planning on making any investment changes.
Just stick to your plan. At age 30, you have plenty of time to ride out bear markets.

Have money set aside for emergencies, build up to 3 months of expenses in case of an unexpected event like a lay-off. Over time build it up to 6 months and then a year when you get to age 50. An emergency fund should be in a U.S. Treasury Securities fund or in an FDIC Bank account. Shop around to get the best rates.

A good place to put money are I-Bonds at Treasury Direct, you are limited to $10,000 a year and the bonds are illiquid for a year. Your money gets an inflation adjustment built into the rate. A year after buying an I-Bond, it is accessible to you to cash in if you need to.
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Coburn
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Joined: Sat Jun 08, 2019 12:46 pm

Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by Coburn »

CyclingDuo wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 7:02 am https://www.ccmmarketmodel.com/short-ta ... way-to-run

He does a nice job of showing the importance of the Baby Boomer demographic for the stock market between 1982 and 2000, and highlights how the Millennials are impacting the 2016 to 2034 time period for the markets that we are in.
An interesting and rather compelling argument that he presents...thanks for the post. :thumbsup
blueberrypi
Posts: 250
Joined: Sun May 02, 2021 6:27 am

Re: A Musing - Market Trends - Thoughts?

Post by blueberrypi »

A coworker this week told me he spent $3k on Shiba Inu coin and suggested I do the same. I was like... yeah I'll get right on that. :oops:
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