nigel_ht wrote: ↑Fri Oct 22, 2021 11:56 am
Expecting that gold will retain value as a reserve of wealth within secondopinion's lifetime isn't "without merit"...especially given that central banks believe the same thing or gold wouldn't be sitting in their vaults.
It is if the merits are not explained or well reasoned. The million dollar question is what multiple of intrinsic value gold will continue to hold, not if it will have intrinsic value. I claimed 25% intrinsic value so my reasoning must be based on gold having some intrinsic value. I used a specific number to see if anyone in the thread was both capable and willing to think about the actual intrinsic value of gold. The answer was no.
nigel_ht wrote: ↑Fri Oct 22, 2021 11:56 am
And then making pronouncements that your position is obvious and we should all simply agree.
Actually, I encouraged you to disagree. I recommended providing specific points of disagreements and your rational for a different opinion.
nigel_ht wrote: ↑Fri Oct 22, 2021 11:56 am
Gold has been a store of wealth in the past. You have provided nothing more than handwaving that there are better alternatives today even though these aren't time tested in any sort of significant financial crisis. And no, 2020 wasn't a significant financial crisis.
You are correct, I was careful not to provide a specific winner, although I-Bonds and TIPs were obvious and mentioned instruments. My position is more general that there will be more liquid alternatives that will eventually win out to gold as a value reserve. It is a similar argument to showing that in Venezuela I can purchase gold with nominal currency on a daily basis, spend nominal currency, and use your own experience of spending US dollars and that this is proof that there are alternatives to pre-storing gold. I suggest that in any US future I will also have such alternatives, and that things like I-Bonds and TIPS already exist without needing to go to that which shall not be named and without needing gold. I don't need to predict the exact future or winner to declare the likelihood that these instruments will continue to exist.
Gold is a play on its value increasing relative to stocks and real currency (currency with a real return of 0) in a way that improves a portfolio. Simply retaining value is not enough, as we can guarantee to do that with either TIPS (when real return>0) and/or I-Bonds (any time).
nigel_ht wrote: ↑Fri Oct 22, 2021 11:56 am
ALL you have done is asserted "golds position as THE reserve of wealth is likely diminished" and "It may do just fine in a portfolio, but a repeat of the past is unlikely. Even rhyming with the past is unlikely."
Why? Because you say so and some blog belonging to a some random fund dude says so?
We all fall under that category minus the gender reference. Why do you participate here if that is the basis for rejection of ideas?
Why are you misstating my ideas instead of presenting your own?