Since there was misunderstanding, I was NOT endorsing Visitor76's SWAN to performance chase rationale (I said I was talking about the OP). Besides, I clearly said I was talking about a one-time investment change to go from US & ex-US to US-only. Just once. Visitor76 is (potentially) changing every 12 months, which isn't at all what I endorsed.Da5id wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:07 amI wasn't talking about you, only visitor76, and you seemed to be endorsing his SWAN to performance chase rationale. You agreed a few posts above that you had misinterpreted me so?Marseille07 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:04 amSuggesting it's OK to go from US & ex-US to US only is not rationalizing any investment choices. It's also not illogical. I do not appreciate your nonsensical labeling of what I mentioned.
Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Fine, no offense intended. If you read back to what I was replying to perhaps it will be more clear why I assumed your reply was in the context of my back and forth with visitor76 rather than in a completely different vein.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:11 amSince there was misunderstanding, I was NOT endorsing Visitor76's SWAN to performance chase rationale (I said I was talking about the OP). Besides, I clearly said I was talking about a one-time investment change to go from US & ex-US to US-only. Just once. Visitor76 is (potentially) changing every 12 months, which isn't at all what I endorsed.Da5id wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:07 amI wasn't talking about you, only visitor76, and you seemed to be endorsing his SWAN to performance chase rationale. You agreed a few posts above that you had misinterpreted me so?Marseille07 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:04 amSuggesting it's OK to go from US & ex-US to US only is not rationalizing any investment choices. It's also not illogical. I do not appreciate your nonsensical labeling of what I mentioned.
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
What if there were companies on the moon or Mars? Would the true Boglehead feel compelled to hold a traditional cap weight in other planetary companies?
If hold some INTL but I also believe the US (for now) has some intrinsic advantages such as capitalist tradition, well developed VC industry, solid court/legal system and global reserve currency position that are fairly unique in the world.
If hold some INTL but I also believe the US (for now) has some intrinsic advantages such as capitalist tradition, well developed VC industry, solid court/legal system and global reserve currency position that are fairly unique in the world.
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
No problem. And I was partially at fault for misunderstanding too. As noted previously, what Visitor76 is doing is performance chasing in my book as well.
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
The problem is that you have to believe that the US has more intrinsic advantages than the consensus of market participants believe.Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:19 am If hold some INTL but I also believe the US (for now) has some intrinsic advantages such as capitalist tradition, well developed VC industry, solid court/legal system and global reserve currency position that are fairly unique in the world.
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Do you though? I've posted this question elsewhere and not gotten a satisfying response, though I'm open to one:tibbitts wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:35 amThe problem is that you have to believe that the US has more intrinsic advantages than the consensus of market participants believe.Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:19 am If hold some INTL but I also believe the US (for now) has some intrinsic advantages such as capitalist tradition, well developed VC industry, solid court/legal system and global reserve currency position that are fairly unique in the world.
Suppose a country called Entrepreneurland has an inherent entrepreneurial advantage over the weighted average of the rest of the global market. Whatever the right theoretical level of all the variables for successful startups to establish and become highly profitable - social, political, availability of capital, access to talent, etc - suppose that Enterpreneurland has them all in better proportions than the rest of the global market. Such that future highly profitable startups/corporations, which don't exist yet and so aren't investable yet, are more likely to be established in Entrepreneurland. Would one not expect Entrepreneurland to outperform the global market index in the future, based on those future highly profitable companies that don't exist yet and so aren't investible yet in the current index?
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
I’ve used similar analogy before and didn’t get any satisfactory answers.Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:19 am What if there were companies on the moon or Mars? Would the true Boglehead feel compelled to hold a traditional cap weight in other planetary companies?
If hold some INTL but I also believe the US (for now) has some intrinsic advantages such as capitalist tradition, well developed VC industry, solid court/legal system and global reserve currency position that are fairly unique in the world.
My concern with Passive Index Investing, as an investment philosophy and mechanism, in ex-US markets is that it is intrinsically flawed and doesn’t meet the critical criteria of the Market Efficient Hypothesis.
The biggest argument from international proponents is that nobody knows nothing and everything is properly priced in by the market!! However, is the so-called Market or invisible hand really the same across every country? Is every possible info really priced in at any point across ex-US market compared to US market?
Again, Im a firm believer in Efficient Market Hypothesis because I was schooled and influenced by Eugene Fama and therefore the Jack Bogle style of Passive Index Investing just made sense to me. However, I’m not convinced such product or way of investing is applicable or as effective as it should be in theory in other markets across the globe as is practiced here in US.
I’m not at all opposed to investing internationally for ordinary retail investors. In fact, I think one should invest in international markets Actively precisely due to its inefficiencies which can be exploited by active investing. However, I’m arguing Passive Index Investing as practiced by Bogleheads is not the best form or vehicle to reap the potential benefits.
Last edited by cj2018 on Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Prior to the IPO you'd not be invested in the new companies. Once they are ready to IPO and become investible wouldn't their initial price just be at a multiple that reflects all known information, including the advantages of the host country?UpsetRaptor wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:42 amDo you though? I've posted this question elsewhere and not gotten a satisfying response, though I'm open to one:tibbitts wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:35 amThe problem is that you have to believe that the US has more intrinsic advantages than the consensus of market participants believe.Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:19 am If hold some INTL but I also believe the US (for now) has some intrinsic advantages such as capitalist tradition, well developed VC industry, solid court/legal system and global reserve currency position that are fairly unique in the world.
Suppose a country called Entrepreneurland has an inherent entrepreneurial advantage over the weighted average of the rest of the global market. Whatever the right theoretical level of all the variables for successful startups to establish and become highly profitable - social, political, availability of capital, access to talent, etc - suppose that Enterpreneurland has them all in better proportions than the rest of the global market. Such that future highly profitable startups/corporations, which don't exist yet and so aren't investable yet, are more likely to be established in Entrepreneurland. Would one not expect Entrepreneurland to outperform the global market index in the future, based on those future highly profitable companies that don't exist yet and so aren't investible yet in the current index?
That said, I don't know that the markets w.r.t. US vs International are actually efficient. I invest as if they are pretty efficient, but there may well be factors which limit that.
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Sure, but you're basically confirming the premise - pre-IPO they're not investible, and they don't become investible until IPO. So if future highly profitable companies are more likely to sprout up in Entrepreneurland, that hypothetical information, even if known to all, would not be "priced in" to the current world index because the current world index is designed to be the fair market value of only all currently investible companies.Da5id wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:16 pmPrior to the IPO you'd not be invested in the new companies. Once they are ready to IPO and become investible wouldn't their initial price just be at a multiple that reflects all known information, including the advantages of the host country?UpsetRaptor wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:42 amDo you though? I've posted this question elsewhere and not gotten a satisfying response, though I'm open to one:tibbitts wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:35 amThe problem is that you have to believe that the US has more intrinsic advantages than the consensus of market participants believe.Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:19 am If hold some INTL but I also believe the US (for now) has some intrinsic advantages such as capitalist tradition, well developed VC industry, solid court/legal system and global reserve currency position that are fairly unique in the world.
Suppose a country called Entrepreneurland has an inherent entrepreneurial advantage over the weighted average of the rest of the global market. Whatever the right theoretical level of all the variables for successful startups to establish and become highly profitable - social, political, availability of capital, access to talent, etc - suppose that Enterpreneurland has them all in better proportions than the rest of the global market. Such that future highly profitable startups/corporations, which don't exist yet and so aren't investable yet, are more likely to be established in Entrepreneurland. Would one not expect Entrepreneurland to outperform the global market index in the future, based on those future highly profitable companies that don't exist yet and so aren't investible yet in the current index?
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
NoYesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:19 am What if there were companies on the moon or Mars? Would the true Boglehead feel compelled to hold a traditional cap weight in other planetary companies?
If hold some INTL but I also believe the US (for now) has some intrinsic advantages such as capitalist tradition, well developed VC industry, solid court/legal system and global reserve currency position that are fairly unique in the world.
Uncle Jack said Martians are lazy with too much political risk and environmental instability
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
UpsetRaptor wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:20 pmSure, but you're basically confirming the premise - pre-IPO they're not investible, and they don't become investible until IPO. So if future highly profitable companies are more likely to sprout up in Entrepreneurland, that hypothetical information, even if known to all, would not be "priced in" to the current world index because the current world index is designed to be the fair market value of only all currently investible companies.Da5id wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:16 pmPrior to the IPO you'd not be invested in the new companies. Once they are ready to IPO and become investible wouldn't their initial price just be at a multiple that reflects all known information, including the advantages of the host country?UpsetRaptor wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:42 amDo you though? I've posted this question elsewhere and not gotten a satisfying response, though I'm open to one:tibbitts wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:35 amThe problem is that you have to believe that the US has more intrinsic advantages than the consensus of market participants believe.Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:19 am If hold some INTL but I also believe the US (for now) has some intrinsic advantages such as capitalist tradition, well developed VC industry, solid court/legal system and global reserve currency position that are fairly unique in the world.
Suppose a country called Entrepreneurland has an inherent entrepreneurial advantage over the weighted average of the rest of the global market. Whatever the right theoretical level of all the variables for successful startups to establish and become highly profitable - social, political, availability of capital, access to talent, etc - suppose that Enterpreneurland has them all in better proportions than the rest of the global market. Such that future highly profitable startups/corporations, which don't exist yet and so aren't investable yet, are more likely to be established in Entrepreneurland. Would one not expect Entrepreneurland to outperform the global market index in the future, based on those future highly profitable companies that don't exist yet and so aren't investible yet in the current index?
The problem is that you have to believe that the ex-US reflects the consensus of what market participants believe accurately and efficiently.
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
I don't think this confirms the premise at all. If stocks in Entrepreneurland are fairly priced for their advantages, and newly IPO'd stocks are likewise fairly priced, in an efficient market seems like the superior projected return should be priced in. So no extra risk adjusted returns. Maybe the markets aren't efficient though.UpsetRaptor wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:20 pmSure, but you're basically confirming the premise - pre-IPO they're not investible, and they don't become investible until IPO. So if future highly profitable companies are more likely to sprout up in Entrepreneurland, that hypothetical information, even if known to all, would not be "priced in" to the current world index because the current world index is designed to be the fair market value of only all currently investible companies.Da5id wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:16 pmPrior to the IPO you'd not be invested in the new companies. Once they are ready to IPO and become investible wouldn't their initial price just be at a multiple that reflects all known information, including the advantages of the host country?UpsetRaptor wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:42 amDo you though? I've posted this question elsewhere and not gotten a satisfying response, though I'm open to one:tibbitts wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:35 amThe problem is that you have to believe that the US has more intrinsic advantages than the consensus of market participants believe.Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:19 am If hold some INTL but I also believe the US (for now) has some intrinsic advantages such as capitalist tradition, well developed VC industry, solid court/legal system and global reserve currency position that are fairly unique in the world.
Suppose a country called Entrepreneurland has an inherent entrepreneurial advantage over the weighted average of the rest of the global market. Whatever the right theoretical level of all the variables for successful startups to establish and become highly profitable - social, political, availability of capital, access to talent, etc - suppose that Enterpreneurland has them all in better proportions than the rest of the global market. Such that future highly profitable startups/corporations, which don't exist yet and so aren't investable yet, are more likely to be established in Entrepreneurland. Would one not expect Entrepreneurland to outperform the global market index in the future, based on those future highly profitable companies that don't exist yet and so aren't investible yet in the current index?
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Speaking for all "true" Bogleheads, only if there is a martian or lunar USA. And then I certainly wouldn't own the other countries on the moon or Mars because they probably have lousy returns.Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:19 am What if there were companies on the moon or Mars? Would the true Boglehead feel compelled to hold a traditional cap weight in other planetary companies?
I'll check with Marvin the Martian and get back to you.
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Actually, it will be the opposite. Immigrants have a self-selection bias for industriousness, entrepreneurial spirit, and generally seeking to improve their lot in life. Historically that has favored the US, going forward it may well be Mars/moon. Those who elect to remain earthlings will be the lazy status quo capital preservationists.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:20 pmNoYesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:19 am What if there were companies on the moon or Mars? Would the true Boglehead feel compelled to hold a traditional cap weight in other planetary companies?
If hold some INTL but I also believe the US (for now) has some intrinsic advantages such as capitalist tradition, well developed VC industry, solid court/legal system and global reserve currency position that are fairly unique in the world.
Uncle Jack said Martians are lazy with too much political risk and environmental instability
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
There's a little conflating of present vs future in your post. So current stocks in Entrepreneurland are fairly priced for their advantages. And today's IPO hit is now priced appropriately. However, future IPOs in upcoming years are not reflected in Entrepreneurland's current world market share, because the world index is designed to be only currently investible companies. So the hypothetical information that future profitable IPOs will sprout in Entrepreneurland, even if known to all, is information that's not "priced in". Or at least, leaves room for Entrepreneurland to outperform the rest of the index without having to assume that anything within is currently mis-priced.Da5id wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:26 pmI don't think this confirms the premise at all. If stocks in Entrepreneurland are fairly priced for their advantages, and newly IPO'd stocks are likewise fairly priced, in an efficient market seems like the superior projected return should be priced in. So no extra risk adjusted returns. Maybe the markets aren't efficient though.UpsetRaptor wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:20 pmSure, but you're basically confirming the premise - pre-IPO they're not investible, and they don't become investible until IPO. So if future highly profitable companies are more likely to sprout up in Entrepreneurland, that hypothetical information, even if known to all, would not be "priced in" to the current world index because the current world index is designed to be the fair market value of only all currently investible companies.Da5id wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:16 pmPrior to the IPO you'd not be invested in the new companies. Once they are ready to IPO and become investible wouldn't their initial price just be at a multiple that reflects all known information, including the advantages of the host country?UpsetRaptor wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:42 amDo you though? I've posted this question elsewhere and not gotten a satisfying response, though I'm open to one:
Suppose a country called Entrepreneurland has an inherent entrepreneurial advantage over the weighted average of the rest of the global market. Whatever the right theoretical level of all the variables for successful startups to establish and become highly profitable - social, political, availability of capital, access to talent, etc - suppose that Enterpreneurland has them all in better proportions than the rest of the global market. Such that future highly profitable startups/corporations, which don't exist yet and so aren't investable yet, are more likely to be established in Entrepreneurland. Would one not expect Entrepreneurland to outperform the global market index in the future, based on those future highly profitable companies that don't exist yet and so aren't investible yet in the current index?
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
I'm not able to invest in the future though. I don't understand your point, why do things that I can't currently invest in impact my investment choices? When the stocks IPO, are you saying that they are underpriced for their prospective returns? If not, I'm uncertain what you are saying I guess. Or are you not talking about investing at all?UpsetRaptor wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:56 pm There's a little conflating of present vs future in your post. So current stocks in Entrepreneurland are fairly priced for their advantages. And today's IPO hit is now priced appropriately. However, future IPOs in upcoming years are not reflected in Entrepreneurland's current world market share, because the world index is designed to be only currently investible companies. So the hypothetical information that future profitable IPOs will sprout in Entrepreneurland, even if known to all, is information that's not "priced in". Or at least, leaves room for Entrepreneurland to outperform the rest of the index without having to assume that anything within is currently mis-priced.
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
I hate saying it like this, but like many investors, the weakest link is you.Visitor76 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:49 amPerhaps, but I sleep better at night with the knowledge there aren't any weak links in my portfolio.Da5id wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 7:34 amThat sounds like classic performance chasing. Which doesn't seem to work very well. see e.g. https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/spiva ... -scorecard. Last years winners have little persistence.Visitor76 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 7:21 amI do annual evaluations of my portfolio, and if I see that a fund under performed from the previous year I look for a replacement fund with a better performance. If none exist I stick with the original fund.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: |
viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
A 4-5% return for VTIAX compared to VTSAX IS an under performance. The winners in VTSAX offset the losers. That is why the fund is sitting at 17% YTD.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 10:30 amIs a 4-5 % real return for VTIAX a loser?Visitor76 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 10:23 amYes, but how long do you keep throwing money into the losers?asif408 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:54 amI do triennial evaluations of my portfolio, and if I see that a fund underperformed I add more to it. For the funds that have outperformed I sell off some. I sleep great at night knowing I own more of the losers and less of the winners.
Have you dissected VTSAX to find out what the losers are?
Wealth is not about having a lot of money; it's about having a lot of options.
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
I think what you are arguing is that Entrepreneurland's global market share can increase relative to the rest of the world without outperformance of its existing stocks, because over time more companies are started there. That is true, but overweighting Entrepreneurland's current stock market does you no good in this scenario. Even if you do so, you don't own any of those future stocks until they begin trading, which will occur at an appropriate company valuation. I think the logical conclusion of your premise would be global market cap weighting (instead of a fixed US/international allocation), which allows your US/international allocation to drift as new companies are created.UpsetRaptor wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:56 pm There's a little conflating of present vs future in your post. So current stocks in Entrepreneurland are fairly priced for their advantages. And today's IPO hit is now priced appropriately. However, future IPOs in upcoming years are not reflected in Entrepreneurland's current world market share, because the world index is designed to be only currently investible companies. So the hypothetical information that future profitable IPOs will sprout in Entrepreneurland, even if known to all, is information that's not "priced in". Or at least, leaves room for Entrepreneurland to outperform the rest of the index without having to assume that anything within is currently mis-priced.
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
My SCV fund is sitting at 30% YTD returns.Visitor76 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:06 pmA 4-5% return for VTIAX compared to VTSAX IS an under performance. The winners in VTSAX offset the losers. That is why the fund is sitting at 17% YTD.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 10:30 amIs a 4-5 % real return for VTIAX a loser?Visitor76 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 10:23 amYes, but how long do you keep throwing money into the losers?
Have you dissected VTSAX to find out what the losers are?
Why did you decide to invest in the loser VTSAX with only 17%?
20% VOO | 20% VXUS | 20% AVUV | 20% AVDV | 20% AVES
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
What you're doing is highly likely to result in subpar investment returns over just investing in any low cost index fund, whether it's VT, VTI, small caps, whatever.Visitor76 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:06 pmA 4-5% return for VTIAX compared to VTSAX IS an under performance. The winners in VTSAX offset the losers. That is why the fund is sitting at 17% YTD.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 10:30 amIs a 4-5 % real return for VTIAX a loser?Visitor76 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 10:23 amYes, but how long do you keep throwing money into the losers?
Have you dissected VTSAX to find out what the losers are?
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
I wanted to spread my risk with a broad market index fund. I hope your total portfolio doesn't consist of VISVX?Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:27 pmMy SCV fund is sitting at 30% YTD returns.Visitor76 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:06 pmA 4-5% return for VTIAX compared to VTSAX IS an under performance. The winners in VTSAX offset the losers. That is why the fund is sitting at 17% YTD.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 10:30 amIs a 4-5 % real return for VTIAX a loser?
Have you dissected VTSAX to find out what the losers are?
Why did you decide to invest in the loser VTSAX with only 17%?
Wealth is not about having a lot of money; it's about having a lot of options.
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
You neglected this one, mate!: viewtopic.php?t=256423Robot Monster wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:38 am Yea, another international thread to add to my list!
Articles
Happier at Home
Venturing Abroad
Boglehead Discussions
"Does International investment still make sense?" link
"For those concerned about International Stocks..." link
"How many here follow Bogle's 'no international' theory?" link
"How much international stock? A suggestion." link
"How much to hold in international equities (VTIAX)?" link
"How on earth can overweighting US stock over international stock possibly be considered Boglehead?" link
"The International Cap Weight (and Beyond!) Discussion Thread" link
"International under-performance" link
"Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More" link
"Reasons to invest internationally, or not." link
"US vs Intl Total Stock Market" link
"VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?" link
"VXUS - Why? [Vanguard Total International Stock ETF]" link
"Why are you invested (mainly) in US stocks when all long term forecasts are in favour of ex-US?" link
"Why international?" link
"Yes, another International vs Domestic Thread" link
And also,
VXUS: A Dollar Hedge, Not A Value Investment link
Why Jack Bogle Doesn't (Didn't) Own Non-US Stocks link
Fidelity on International Markets link
Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
link
TSP + Vanguard + Fidelity CMA: 80% equities / 20% bonds | "I don't shine shoes, I don’t tape ankles, I don't cut checks - straight cash homie!!" --R. Moss | Winner 2021 Hedge Fund Contest
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Thank you! Updated my list. link
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
I want to spread my risk across a wide range of geographic regions and market risk factors. I hope your portfolio doesn’t only include US LCG?Visitor76 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:47 pmI wanted to spread my risk with a broad market index fund. I hope your total portfolio doesn't consist of VISVX?Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:27 pmMy SCV fund is sitting at 30% YTD returns.Visitor76 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:06 pmA 4-5% return for VTIAX compared to VTSAX IS an under performance. The winners in VTSAX offset the losers. That is why the fund is sitting at 17% YTD.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 10:30 amIs a 4-5 % real return for VTIAX a loser?
Have you dissected VTSAX to find out what the losers are?
Why did you decide to invest in the loser VTSAX with only 17%?
20% VOO | 20% VXUS | 20% AVUV | 20% AVDV | 20% AVES
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Fantastic list. Thank you for your service!
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Why stop there? Dropping everything except US Mega-Cap Technology would be an extension of the same logic. Imagine the returns you could have had the last 10 years. Would be really nice to lock that in for the next 10 years too.
VTWAX and chill
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Yes only big tech hires good workers that aren’t lazy, have no political risks, and have good morals and legislation too. Other industries are the bad companies, why would anyone want them!bogledogle87 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 7:11 pm Why stop there? Dropping everything except US Mega-Cap Technology would be an extension of the same logic. Imagine the returns you could have had the last 10 years. Would be really nice to lock that in for the next 10 years too.
Thank you Jack!
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
If you don’t like Jack Bogle then there are other forums for you.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 7:18 pmYes only big tech hires good workers that aren’t lazy, have no political risks, and have good morals and legislation too. Other industries are the bad companies, why would anyone want them!bogledogle87 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 7:11 pm Why stop there? Dropping everything except US Mega-Cap Technology would be an extension of the same logic. Imagine the returns you could have had the last 10 years. Would be really nice to lock that in for the next 10 years too.
Thank you Jack!
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
+1 Amennigel_ht wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:52 pmIf you don’t like Jack Bogle then there are other forums for you.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 7:18 pmYes only big tech hires good workers that aren’t lazy, have no political risks, and have good morals and legislation too. Other industries are the bad companies, why would anyone want them!bogledogle87 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 7:11 pm Why stop there? Dropping everything except US Mega-Cap Technology would be an extension of the same logic. Imagine the returns you could have had the last 10 years. Would be really nice to lock that in for the next 10 years too.
Thank you Jack!
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Moving out of international funds because of past performance is performance chasing and confusing strategy with outcome. Diversification matters, and I can't think of a good reason for being 100% US equities unless you don't think you can stick with even a small allocation to international over the long term.
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Op stopped posting on this thread a few days ago. It seems he doesn't need inputs anymore.
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
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Last edited by GoneOnTilt on Sat Jul 31, 2021 2:53 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
He's moved on to bigger and better nebulous topics which never reach a useful resolution, like "public vs private universities"...
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
I’m a huge fan of Jacknigel_ht wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:52 pmIf you don’t like Jack Bogle then there are other forums for you.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 7:18 pmYes only big tech hires good workers that aren’t lazy, have no political risks, and have good morals and legislation too. Other industries are the bad companies, why would anyone want them!bogledogle87 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 7:11 pm Why stop there? Dropping everything except US Mega-Cap Technology would be an extension of the same logic. Imagine the returns you could have had the last 10 years. Would be really nice to lock that in for the next 10 years too.
Thank you Jack!
I’m not so big on appealing to authority, especially when said authority said he could be wrong on international and to make your own mind up rather than blindly trust him on this issue
20% VOO | 20% VXUS | 20% AVUV | 20% AVDV | 20% AVES
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Calling out logical fallacies are my favorite parts of these threads, they really make my day.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 9:15 pmI’m a huge fan of Jacknigel_ht wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:52 pmIf you don’t like Jack Bogle then there are other forums for you.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 7:18 pmYes only big tech hires good workers that aren’t lazy, have no political risks, and have good morals and legislation too. Other industries are the bad companies, why would anyone want them!bogledogle87 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 7:11 pm Why stop there? Dropping everything except US Mega-Cap Technology would be an extension of the same logic. Imagine the returns you could have had the last 10 years. Would be really nice to lock that in for the next 10 years too.
:sharebeer
Thank you Jack!
:sharebeer
I’m not so big on appealing to authority, especially when said authority said he could be wrong on international and to make your own mind up rather than blindly trust him on this issue
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Yikes. The answer for all of these debates is the same, nobody will know who was right until a bunch of years later. Hindsight is perfect...Da5id wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 9:11 pmHe's moved on to bigger and better nebulous topics which never reach a useful resolution, like "public vs private universities"...
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
I can hear the sirens coming...GoneOnTilt wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 9:10 pmMore entertaining than the new international threads are the international thread police who inevitably rear their heads in horrified protest. They're the real hoot.
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
I think the list is useful, in that the value/information added in new threads is slim at best. It mostly all has been said. Of course that applies to many/most threads on bogleheads, so...GoneOnTilt wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 9:10 pmMore entertaining than the new international threads are the international thread police who inevitably rear their heads in horrified protest. They're the real hoot.
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
This!Da5id wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 9:11 pmHe's moved on to bigger and better nebulous topics which never reach a useful resolution, like "public vs private universities"...
+1
RM
This signature is a placebo. You are in the control group.
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
That's a good, logical answer, that solves the question. Thanks.Mountain Doc wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:11 pm I think what you are arguing is that Entrepreneurland's global market share can increase relative to the rest of the world without outperformance of its existing stocks, because over time more companies are started there. That is true, but overweighting Entrepreneurland's current stock market does you no good in this scenario. Even if you do so, you don't own any of those future stocks until they begin trading, which will occur at an appropriate company valuation. I think the logical conclusion of your premise would be global market cap weighting (instead of a fixed US/international allocation), which allows your US/international allocation to drift as new companies are created.
Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:27 pm My SCV fund is sitting at 30% YTD returns.
Why did you decide to invest in the loser VTSAX with only 17%?
If we're discussing logical fallacies, these posts are classic examples of a "slippery slope".bogledogle87 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 7:11 pm Why stop there? Dropping everything except US Mega-Cap Technology would be an extension of the same logic. Imagine the returns you could have had the last 10 years. Would be really nice to lock that in for the next 10 years too.
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Few are blindly trusting his opinion on international…they just agree with his assessment. The data for significant exposure to international simply isn’t very compelling for folks in accumulation phase. It ends up as a wash over longer periods.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 9:15 pmI’m a huge fan of Jacknigel_ht wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:52 pmIf you don’t like Jack Bogle then there are other forums for you.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 7:18 pmYes only big tech hires good workers that aren’t lazy, have no political risks, and have good morals and legislation too. Other industries are the bad companies, why would anyone want them!bogledogle87 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 7:11 pm Why stop there? Dropping everything except US Mega-Cap Technology would be an extension of the same logic. Imagine the returns you could have had the last 10 years. Would be really nice to lock that in for the next 10 years too.
Thank you Jack!
I’m not so big on appealing to authority, especially when said authority said he could be wrong on international and to make your own mind up rather than blindly trust him on this issue
What you’re doing in these snide comments isn’t calling out appeal to authority but making up stuff he didn’t say.
If folks think proponents of international are being annoying and rude there is a reason why.
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Some agree with his assessment and are honest enough to realize the pitfalls but continue anyway...most just use him as a crutch while bringing up fantastically false narratives and logical fallacies for why they decide to avoid every single country in the world but one.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 10:51 pmFew are blindly trusting his opinion on international…they just agree with his assessment. The data for significant exposure to international simply isn’t very compelling for folks in accumulation phase. It ends up as a wash over longer periods.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 9:15 pmI’m a huge fan of Jacknigel_ht wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:52 pmIf you don’t like Jack Bogle then there are other forums for you.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 7:18 pmYes only big tech hires good workers that aren’t lazy, have no political risks, and have good morals and legislation too. Other industries are the bad companies, why would anyone want them!bogledogle87 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 7:11 pm Why stop there? Dropping everything except US Mega-Cap Technology would be an extension of the same logic. Imagine the returns you could have had the last 10 years. Would be really nice to lock that in for the next 10 years too.
Thank you Jack!
I’m not so big on appealing to authority, especially when said authority said he could be wrong on international and to make your own mind up rather than blindly trust him on this issue
What you’re doing in these snide comments isn’t calling out appeal to authority but making up stuff he didn’t say.
If folks think proponents of international are being annoying and rude there is a reason why.
20% VOO | 20% VXUS | 20% AVUV | 20% AVDV | 20% AVES
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
What difference does it make if they're both US-only anyway?Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:23 pm Some agree with his assessment and are honest enough to realize the pitfalls but continue anyway...most just use him as a crutch while bringing up fantastically false narratives and logical fallacies for why they decide to avoid every single country in the world but one.
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Man, I love the fact that you have an actual list of all the discussions compiled. hahaRobot Monster wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:38 am Yea, another international thread to add to my list!
Articles
Happier at Home
Venturing Abroad
Boglehead Discussions
[...]
International threads could probably be marketed as Boglehead bait. Throw the International chum in the water and all the hungry BHs come to the surface.
[OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek]
Seriously, my take since the beginning: if you are younger, just stick to the US of A. If you are older and nearing retirement, I would dump like 20% into Ex-US (or whatever % is sufficient to survive), [OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek].
I commend you for sticking to your principles for so long, OP. I don't know how I could stick with it for 20 years. That return comparison is stomach-churning.
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Not much contribution to stomach churn in a diversified portfolio.
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... tion3_2=40
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... tion3_2=40
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
OP provided 30% VS 250% in his case, so I am no longer sure what period or funds were being compared. That will teach me to trust people on the internet!Northern Flicker wrote: ↑Sat Jul 31, 2021 1:28 am Not much contribution to stomach churn in a diversified portfolio.
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... tion3_2=40
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
My comment was snarky and the value added was nil at best. . I did the best I could to delete it.Da5id wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 9:36 pmI think the list is useful, in that the value/information added in new threads is slim at best. It mostly all has been said. Of course that applies to many/most threads on bogleheads, so...GoneOnTilt wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 9:10 pmMore entertaining than the new international threads are the international thread police who inevitably rear their heads in horrified protest. They're the real hoot.
Actually if the OP were new to the topic and were truly interested in reading more, he would like the list.