Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Hi
So like a good Bogle-head I split my assets b/w US-Stocks, International Stocks and Fixed Assets (Bonds, MM etc.) for the last few decades.
Reviewing performance over the last 20 years of say VGTSX (total international stock fund) I see it's barely up 30% compared to say VTSMX (total stock fund) which is up 250%.
Looking at my portfolio of funds ALL of my Vanguard international funds (Total, European, Pacific) are all up less than 30% and often flat (i.e. VEURX)
Fortunately, I'm heavily exposed to US stocks which have put me in a nice position. But I'm seriously thinking, why on earth invest in these international funds if they barely beat inflation.
Thoughts?
So like a good Bogle-head I split my assets b/w US-Stocks, International Stocks and Fixed Assets (Bonds, MM etc.) for the last few decades.
Reviewing performance over the last 20 years of say VGTSX (total international stock fund) I see it's barely up 30% compared to say VTSMX (total stock fund) which is up 250%.
Looking at my portfolio of funds ALL of my Vanguard international funds (Total, European, Pacific) are all up less than 30% and often flat (i.e. VEURX)
Fortunately, I'm heavily exposed to US stocks which have put me in a nice position. But I'm seriously thinking, why on earth invest in these international funds if they barely beat inflation.
Thoughts?
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
I am sure plenty of Japanese investors were thinking same thing about international stocks.
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Investments that have done poorly (or well) may not continue to perform poorly (or well).
Diversification.
Investments that have done poorly (or well) may not continue to perform poorly (or well).
Diversification.
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
You mean International is at a discount? Nice.
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Yea, another international thread to add to my list!
Articles
Happier at Home
Venturing Abroad
Boglehead Discussions
"Does International investment still make sense?" link
"For those concerned about International Stocks..." link
"How many here follow Bogle's 'no international' theory?" link
"How much international stock? A suggestion." link
"How much to hold in international equities (VTIAX)?" link
"How on earth can overweighting US stock over international stock possibly be considered Boglehead?" link
"The International Cap Weight (and Beyond!) Discussion Thread" link
"International under-performance" link
"Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More" link
"Reasons to invest internationally, or not." link
"US vs Intl Total Stock Market" link
"VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?" link
"VXUS - Why? [Vanguard Total International Stock ETF]" link
"Why are you invested (mainly) in US stocks when all long term forecasts are in favour of ex-US?" link
"Why international?" link
"Yes, another International vs Domestic Thread" link
And also,
VXUS: A Dollar Hedge, Not A Value Investment link
Why Jack Bogle Doesn't (Didn't) Own Non-US Stocks link
Fidelity on International Markets link
Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
link
Not to mention,
It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
link
Articles
Happier at Home
Venturing Abroad
Boglehead Discussions
"Does International investment still make sense?" link
"For those concerned about International Stocks..." link
"How many here follow Bogle's 'no international' theory?" link
"How much international stock? A suggestion." link
"How much to hold in international equities (VTIAX)?" link
"How on earth can overweighting US stock over international stock possibly be considered Boglehead?" link
"The International Cap Weight (and Beyond!) Discussion Thread" link
"International under-performance" link
"Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More" link
"Reasons to invest internationally, or not." link
"US vs Intl Total Stock Market" link
"VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?" link
"VXUS - Why? [Vanguard Total International Stock ETF]" link
"Why are you invested (mainly) in US stocks when all long term forecasts are in favour of ex-US?" link
"Why international?" link
"Yes, another International vs Domestic Thread" link
And also,
VXUS: A Dollar Hedge, Not A Value Investment link
Why Jack Bogle Doesn't (Didn't) Own Non-US Stocks link
Fidelity on International Markets link
Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
link
Not to mention,
It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
link
Last edited by Robot Monster on Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:52 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
The more threads like these keep popping up the higher my conviction is in exUS
Dunno why you’d want to invest in all US stocks though when you could just invest in the best ones instead.
Dunno why you’d want to invest in all US stocks though when you could just invest in the best ones instead.
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Yes, this is a great idea. Listen to John Bogle's investment strategy.MrCheapo wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:17 am Hi
So like a good Bogle-head I split my assets b/w US-Stocks, International Stocks and Fixed Assets (Bonds, MM etc.) for the last few decades.
Reviewing performance over the last 20 years of say VGTSX (total international stock fund) I see it's barely up 30% compared to say VTSMX (total stock fund) which is up 250%.
Looking at my portfolio of funds ALL of my Vanguard international funds (Total, European, Pacific) are all up less than 30% and often flat (i.e. VEURX)
Fortunately, I'm heavily exposed to US stocks which have put me in a nice position. But I'm seriously thinking, why on earth invest in these international funds if they barely beat inflation.
Thoughts?
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
But maybe you'll get lucky even if you aren't well-diversified geographically.
This isn't just my wallet. It's an organizer, a memory and an old friend.
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
The debate continues.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Are you retired or an early accumulator? That makes a difference IMOMrCheapo wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:17 am Hi
So like a good Bogle-head I split my assets b/w US-Stocks, International Stocks and Fixed Assets (Bonds, MM etc.) for the last few decades.
Reviewing performance over the last 20 years of say VGTSX (total international stock fund) I see it's barely up 30% compared to say VTSMX (total stock fund) which is up 250%.
Looking at my portfolio of funds ALL of my Vanguard international funds (Total, European, Pacific) are all up less than 30% and often flat (i.e. VEURX)
Fortunately, I'm heavily exposed to US stocks which have put me in a nice position. But I'm seriously thinking, why on earth invest in these international funds if they barely beat inflation.
Thoughts?
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
It may be time to bump my international equity exposure even higher.
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
I suspect you are calculating this by looking at just share prices. That leads to a HUGE miscalculation, because more of international stocks' returns have come from dividends.MrCheapo wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:17 am Reviewing performance over the last 20 years of say VGTSX (total international stock fund) I see it's barely up 30% compared to say VTSMX (total stock fund) which is up 250%.
Looking at my portfolio of funds ALL of my Vanguard international funds (Total, European, Pacific) are all up less than 30% and often flat (i.e. VEURX)
$10K invested in int'l (VTSMX) in Jan 2001 is worth about $29,300 today. That's up almost 200%, not 30%. CAGR of 5.45%, well ahead of inflation. Same amount invested in US (VGTSX) would be $52,800. That's a big outperformance for U.S., but nowhere near to the extent you stated.
Last edited by 02nz on Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:00 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Lots of posters are US-only, including myself. Neither Buffett nor Bogle believed in ex-US, not sure what other evidence you need.
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
"Warren Buffett's $6 billion investment in Japanese trading companies is paying off"Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:57 amLots of posters are US-only, including myself. Neither Buffett nor Bogle believed in ex-US, not sure what other evidence you need.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... king-stock
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
I meant their advice for average investors. Obviously Berkshire Hathaway has to hold some international.starboi wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:08 pm"Warren Buffett's $6 billion investment in Japanese trading companies is paying off"Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:57 amLots of posters are US-only, including myself. Neither Buffett nor Bogle believed in ex-US, not sure what other evidence you need.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... king-stock
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
What about the advice of every fund company like Vanguard, Fidelity, Blackrock, and so on who recommend and use a healthy dose of international equities in their target funds?Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:57 amLots of posters are US-only, including myself. Neither Buffett nor Bogle believed in ex-US, not sure what other evidence you need.
I don't know what will work out in the end, but using two men as evidence of how to invest wouldn't sit well with me, especially when the opinion of those two men go counter to an entire industry.
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
When has Buffett said only US stocks are the optimal choice for investors?Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:10 pmI meant their advice for average investors. Obviously Berkshire Hathaway has to hold some international.starboi wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:08 pm"Warren Buffett's $6 billion investment in Japanese trading companies is paying off"Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:57 amLots of posters are US-only, including myself. Neither Buffett nor Bogle believed in ex-US, not sure what other evidence you need.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... king-stock
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
One of the two men is arguably the greatest investor of all time...Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:12 pm What about the advice of every fund company like Vanguard, Fidelity, Blackrock, and so on who recommend and use a healthy dose of international equities in their target funds?
I don't know what will work out in the end, but using two men as evidence of how to invest wouldn't sit well with me, especially when the opinion of those two men go counter to an entire industry.
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
I don't think he ever said "optimal" but it is well known he's been recommending S&P500 for average investors.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:16 pmWhen has Buffett said only US stocks are the optimal choice for investors?Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:10 pmI meant their advice for average investors. Obviously Berkshire Hathaway has to hold some international.starboi wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:08 pm"Warren Buffett's $6 billion investment in Japanese trading companies is paying off"Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:57 amLots of posters are US-only, including myself. Neither Buffett nor Bogle believed in ex-US, not sure what other evidence you need.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... king-stock
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
U.S. small cap value stocks have destroyed U.S. total market stocks for the last 50 years so why aren't you all-in on small cap value?
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
His comment is more of a “keep it simple stupid” remark, like it’s a fine thing to invest in as a baseline portfolio.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:18 pmI don't think he ever said "optimal" but it is well known he's been recommending S&P500 for average investors.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:16 pmWhen has Buffett said only US stocks are the optimal choice for investors?Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:10 pmI meant their advice for average investors. Obviously Berkshire Hathaway has to hold some international.starboi wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:08 pm"Warren Buffett's $6 billion investment in Japanese trading companies is paying off"Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:57 am
Lots of posters are US-only, including myself. Neither Buffett nor Bogle believed in ex-US, not sure what other evidence you need.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... king-stock
But he’s not a financial advisor, and he never said it was the optimal way to invest
He clearly doesn’t invest his own money that way
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
I've come to the conclusion that with regard to allocations, you have to decide early on in your investing career what you want to do, and then approximately stick with it. There will always be new data and research, but it probably won't be "better", just based on a different, or additional, time period. And it will pale in importance compared to staying-the-course. Almost whenever I've made changes based on new evidence, it's been at what turned out to be almost exactly the worst possible time.
You might make some adjustments based on some clearly objective factors, such as if you started investing when an asset category wasn't practical to invest in at a reasonably low cost. Or if some new investing option becomes available: for example, TIPS as part of your bond allocation, that you couldn't have envisioned before they came into existence in the late 1990s.
Last edited by tibbitts on Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
I agree there's an element of KISS, but his focus on the S&P500 is undeniable. After all, his recommendation is 90% in S&P500 - most people don't even hold this much in retirement, let alone only in US large caps.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:23 pm His comment is more of a “keep it simple stupid” remark, like it’s a fine thing to invest in as a baseline portfolio.
But he’s not a financial advisor, and he never said it was the optimal way to invest
He clearly doesn’t invest his own money that way
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
What's an "average investor"?Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:10 pmI meant their advice for average investors. Obviously Berkshire Hathaway has to hold some international.starboi wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:08 pm"Warren Buffett's $6 billion investment in Japanese trading companies is paying off"Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:57 amLots of posters are US-only, including myself. Neither Buffett nor Bogle believed in ex-US, not sure what other evidence you need.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... king-stock
Dave
"Reality always wins, your only job is to get in touch with it." Wilfred Bion
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Ah, I should have been more clearer. The numbers I refer to our *my* returns after removing inflation (it's something my accountant puts together for me). It's also after tax money in a retail (i.e. non-retirement) account.02nz wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:57 amI suspect you are calculating this by looking at just share prices. That leads to a HUGE miscalculation, because more of international stocks' returns have come from dividends.MrCheapo wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:17 am Reviewing performance over the last 20 years of say VGTSX (total international stock fund) I see it's barely up 30% compared to say VTSMX (total stock fund) which is up 250%.
Looking at my portfolio of funds ALL of my Vanguard international funds (Total, European, Pacific) are all up less than 30% and often flat (i.e. VEURX)
But I think you hit the nail on the head, if you are in a high tax bracket (Fed 32%, State 10.1%) then international (or dividend focused stock) fair very badly.
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
He is a great investor because he picked companies, many from outside the U.S., and succeeded. That is incompatible with Boglehead style investing.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:17 pmOne of the two men is arguably the greatest investor of all time...Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:12 pm What about the advice of every fund company like Vanguard, Fidelity, Blackrock, and so on who recommend and use a healthy dose of international equities in their target funds?
I don't know what will work out in the end, but using two men as evidence of how to invest wouldn't sit well with me, especially when the opinion of those two men go counter to an entire industry.
The whole Boglehead style is index investing, so pointing to a "great investor" who made money by buying individual companies really doesn't hold any water here.
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
But his style has nothing to do with his advice for average investors, which was about passive investing.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:01 pmHe is a great investor because he picked companies, many from outside the U.S., and succeeded. That is incompatible with Boglehead style investing.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:17 pmOne of the two men is arguably the greatest investor of all time...Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:12 pm What about the advice of every fund company like Vanguard, Fidelity, Blackrock, and so on who recommend and use a healthy dose of international equities in their target funds?
I don't know what will work out in the end, but using two men as evidence of how to invest wouldn't sit well with me, especially when the opinion of those two men go counter to an entire industry.
The whole Boglehead style is index investing, so pointing to a "great investor" who made money by buying individual companies really doesn't hold any water here.
Now, if you disagree with his advice then that's a discussion to have. But discarding him because of how he made money doesn't hold water here.
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
If you do, don't forget to flush.
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
I'm not discarding him. He's one person, and his opinion is different than an entire industry. I don't think his opinion is worth more than an entire industry, especially since he made his money doing something very different than the style of investing that this forum is about.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:06 pmBut his style has nothing to do with his advice for average investors, which was about passive investing.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:01 pmHe is a great investor because he picked companies, many from outside the U.S., and succeeded. That is incompatible with Boglehead style investing.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:17 pmOne of the two men is arguably the greatest investor of all time...Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:12 pm What about the advice of every fund company like Vanguard, Fidelity, Blackrock, and so on who recommend and use a healthy dose of international equities in their target funds?
I don't know what will work out in the end, but using two men as evidence of how to invest wouldn't sit well with me, especially when the opinion of those two men go counter to an entire industry.
The whole Boglehead style is index investing, so pointing to a "great investor" who made money by buying individual companies really doesn't hold any water here.
Now, if you disagree with his advice then that's a discussion to have. But discarding him because of how he made money doesn't hold water here.
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Conversely, repeatedly quoting him as your sole argument is a form of logical fallacy.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:06 pm Now, if you disagree with [Buffet's] advice then that's a discussion to have. But discarding him because of how he made money doesn't hold water here.
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
My international allocation with a tilt towards EM makes me feel like the knight in Indian Jones and the last crusade guarding the grail.
Waiting a very long time.
Waiting a very long time.
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
How many would you need? I also mentioned Mr. Bogle btw.TedSwippet wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:13 pmConversely, repeatedly quoting him as your sole argument is a form of logical fallacy.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:06 pm Now, if you disagree with [Buffet's] advice then that's a discussion to have. But discarding him because of how he made money doesn't hold water here.
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Tell us how badly they've beaten US Total Stock Market over the last 15 years.burritoLover wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:21 pm U.S. small cap value stocks have destroyed U.S. total market stocks for the last 50 years so why aren't you all-in on small cap value?
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
3.22% over 50 years. So, $10,000 invested in 1972 in small cap value would be worth $6.7 mi today vs total stock market $1.6 mil. Actually outperformed over the entire history of the U.S. stock market (90 years).UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:39 pmTell us how badly they've beaten US Total Stock Market over the last 15 years.burritoLover wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:21 pm U.S. small cap value stocks have destroyed U.S. total market stocks for the last 50 years so why aren't you all-in on small cap value?
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
You had reasons to invest that way. If you choose to bail on the currently trailing asset, well, that is your call to make. I'd not do it, but hey I'm 60% US/40% Int'l.MrCheapo wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:17 am Hi
So like a good Bogle-head I split my assets b/w US-Stocks, International Stocks and Fixed Assets (Bonds, MM etc.) for the last few decades.
Reviewing performance over the last 20 years of say VGTSX (total international stock fund) I see it's barely up 30% compared to say VTSMX (total stock fund) which is up 250%.
Looking at my portfolio of funds ALL of my Vanguard international funds (Total, European, Pacific) are all up less than 30% and often flat (i.e. VEURX)
Fortunately, I'm heavily exposed to US stocks which have put me in a nice position. But I'm seriously thinking, why on earth invest in these international funds if they barely beat inflation.
Thoughts?
What are you hoping for here anyway that isn't in the other international threads? There are better places to inform yourself IMO, as these threads are repetitive and somewhat tedious. Bogle! Buffett! US exceptionalism! US has outperformed for last X years, and (implied) therefore it will forever! Diversification away from all US is better! Buy the haystack (but which haystack??)! Vanguard and every other major fund puts international in all their target date funds! Bernstein! Valuations!
Last edited by Da5id on Tue Jul 27, 2021 2:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Tell us how badly they've beaten US Total Stock Market over the last 15 years.burritoLover wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:45 pm3.22% over 50 years. So, $10,000 invested in 1972 in small cap value would be worth $6.7 mi today vs total stock market $1.6 mil. Actually outperformed over the entire history of the U.S. stock market (90 years).UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:39 pmTell us how badly they've beaten US Total Stock Market over the last 15 years.burritoLover wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:21 pm U.S. small cap value stocks have destroyed U.S. total market stocks for the last 50 years so why aren't you all-in on small cap value?
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Who cares about 15 years lol.UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 2:08 pmTell us how badly they've beaten US Total Stock Market over the last 15 years.burritoLover wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:45 pm3.22% over 50 years. So, $10,000 invested in 1972 in small cap value would be worth $6.7 mi today vs total stock market $1.6 mil. Actually outperformed over the entire history of the U.S. stock market (90 years).UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:39 pmTell us how badly they've beaten US Total Stock Market over the last 15 years.burritoLover wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:21 pm U.S. small cap value stocks have destroyed U.S. total market stocks for the last 50 years so why aren't you all-in on small cap value?
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
While I don't do SCV or tilting at all for that matter, that isn't how SCV has historically worked. To the extend one may believe in SCV, it is generally characterized by long periods of underperformance and bursts of overperformance. It is a risk basked play, and only to be attempted by true believers as sticking with it during the underperformance is behaviorally difficult for many.UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 2:08 pmTell us how badly they've beaten US Total Stock Market over the last 15 years.burritoLover wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:45 pm3.22% over 50 years. So, $10,000 invested in 1972 in small cap value would be worth $6.7 mi today vs total stock market $1.6 mil. Actually outperformed over the entire history of the U.S. stock market (90 years).UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:39 pmTell us how badly they've beaten US Total Stock Market over the last 15 years.burritoLover wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:21 pm U.S. small cap value stocks have destroyed U.S. total market stocks for the last 50 years so why aren't you all-in on small cap value?
Not also clear why one would ever care about a specific 15 year segment with a specific start and end date. That type of argument can be used to "prove" all sorts of things.
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
US SCV has underperformed US TSM by around -5% the last 15 years...UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 2:08 pmTell us how badly they've beaten US Total Stock Market over the last 15 years.burritoLover wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:45 pm3.22% over 50 years. So, $10,000 invested in 1972 in small cap value would be worth $6.7 mi today vs total stock market $1.6 mil. Actually outperformed over the entire history of the U.S. stock market (90 years).UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:39 pmTell us how badly they've beaten US Total Stock Market over the last 15 years.burritoLover wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:21 pm U.S. small cap value stocks have destroyed U.S. total market stocks for the last 50 years so why aren't you all-in on small cap value?
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Not trueDa5id wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 2:12 pmWhile I don't do SCV or tilting at all for that matter, that isn't how SCV has historically worked. To the extend one may believe in SCV, it is generally characterized by long periods of underperformance and bursts of overperformance. It is a risk basked play, and only to be attempted by true believers as sticking with it during the underperformance is behaviorally difficult for many.UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 2:08 pmTell us how badly they've beaten US Total Stock Market over the last 15 years.burritoLover wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:45 pm3.22% over 50 years. So, $10,000 invested in 1972 in small cap value would be worth $6.7 mi today vs total stock market $1.6 mil. Actually outperformed over the entire history of the U.S. stock market (90 years).UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:39 pmTell us how badly they've beaten US Total Stock Market over the last 15 years.burritoLover wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:21 pm U.S. small cap value stocks have destroyed U.S. total market stocks for the last 50 years so why aren't you all-in on small cap value?
Not also clear why one would ever care about a specific 15 year segment with a specific start and end date. That type of argument can be used to "prove" all sorts of things.
SCV outperforms TSM roughly 82% of the time, a higher rate than stocks beat bonds
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- anon_investor
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
One international thread a week, keeps the doctor away!TropikThunder wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 2:10 pmOh thank god. I thought the search feature was broken.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:38 am Yea, another international thread to add to my list!
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- anon_investor
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
IMHO Raiders was the best...
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
I sold all of my International positions this past spring and never looked back. On top of under performing the US market, International also doesn't provide any balance to US stocks... when the US market is down, International follows suit.MrCheapo wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:17 am Hi
So like a good Bogle-head I split my assets b/w US-Stocks, International Stocks and Fixed Assets (Bonds, MM etc.) for the last few decades.
Reviewing performance over the last 20 years of say VGTSX (total international stock fund) I see it's barely up 30% compared to say VTSMX (total stock fund) which is up 250%.
Looking at my portfolio of funds ALL of my Vanguard international funds (Total, European, Pacific) are all up less than 30% and often flat (i.e. VEURX)
Fortunately, I'm heavily exposed to US stocks which have put me in a nice position. But I'm seriously thinking, why on earth invest in these international funds if they barely beat inflation.
Thoughts?
Wealth is not about having a lot of money; it's about having a lot of options.
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
I guess the question for you is do you think you have the fortitude to stick with any allocation if it results in long term underperformance to something else? You risk being among the many who buy high and sell low.MrCheapo wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:17 am Hi
So like a good Bogle-head I split my assets b/w US-Stocks, International Stocks and Fixed Assets (Bonds, MM etc.) for the last few decades.
Reviewing performance over the last 20 years of say VGTSX (total international stock fund) I see it's barely up 30% compared to say VTSMX (total stock fund) which is up 250%.
Looking at my portfolio of funds ALL of my Vanguard international funds (Total, European, Pacific) are all up less than 30% and often flat (i.e. VEURX)
Fortunately, I'm heavily exposed to US stocks which have put me in a nice position. But I'm seriously thinking, why on earth invest in these international funds if they barely beat inflation.
Thoughts?
Personally, I like the fact that they have underperformed. That to me means
1. Returns are diversified (for better, and for worse)
2. A significant portion of my portfolio is not at all time highs/overvalued/etc, however one wishes to define that.
I'm not making any predictions going forward. I would be more wealthy if I had been 100% US the last 10 years. But that doesn't inform the future. I have actually been modestly increasing international over the last several years.
If you are absolutely compelled to make a change consider a partial change instead of a wholesale change.
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Since you were looking for something not fully correlated with U.S. stocks, what did you add in place of international that suited your portfolio better?Visitor76 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 2:46 pmI sold all of my International positions this past spring and never looked back. On top of under performing the US market, International also doesn't provide any balance to US stocks... when the US market is down, International follows suit.MrCheapo wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:17 am Hi
So like a good Bogle-head I split my assets b/w US-Stocks, International Stocks and Fixed Assets (Bonds, MM etc.) for the last few decades.
Reviewing performance over the last 20 years of say VGTSX (total international stock fund) I see it's barely up 30% compared to say VTSMX (total stock fund) which is up 250%.
Looking at my portfolio of funds ALL of my Vanguard international funds (Total, European, Pacific) are all up less than 30% and often flat (i.e. VEURX)
Fortunately, I'm heavily exposed to US stocks which have put me in a nice position. But I'm seriously thinking, why on earth invest in these international funds if they barely beat inflation.
Thoughts?
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
On the one hand you said international is underperforming and the other you say it provides no balance. How can both be true?Visitor76 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 2:46 pmI sold all of my International positions this past spring and never looked back. On top of under performing the US market, International also doesn't provide any balance to US stocks... when the US market is down, International follows suit.MrCheapo wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:17 am Hi
So like a good Bogle-head I split my assets b/w US-Stocks, International Stocks and Fixed Assets (Bonds, MM etc.) for the last few decades.
Reviewing performance over the last 20 years of say VGTSX (total international stock fund) I see it's barely up 30% compared to say VTSMX (total stock fund) which is up 250%.
Looking at my portfolio of funds ALL of my Vanguard international funds (Total, European, Pacific) are all up less than 30% and often flat (i.e. VEURX)
Fortunately, I'm heavily exposed to US stocks which have put me in a nice position. But I'm seriously thinking, why on earth invest in these international funds if they barely beat inflation.
Thoughts?
- Yesterdaysnews
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Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
30% return over 20 years? Is that correct? I knew it was bad but that’s worse than I thought. No way it stays that pathetic for the next 20…. Or maybe it will, who knows!
Re: Thinking of Dropping Out of International Stock Funds
Of my equities, I used to have a 30% allocation in international. Over the last year or so I have allowed my international portion to dwindle down to 25% due to US out performance. I still keep buying international, but at a much slower rate. I still believe in the diversification it provides, but at 5% less. I don't believe in making drastic changes, but the 5% appears right.
I would like to point out that I have not sold any international. I just buy less.
I would like to point out that I have not sold any international. I just buy less.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: |
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