Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"
- fredflinstone
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Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/analyst ... 44620.html
"When we have so much liquidity pervasive throughout the system and it has to have somewhere to go. So it's really hard to fight this melt-up at this particular point. That's something to consider in the short term. But I think in the long term, you still need to be aware of the fundamentals and what you own. And there may be some upside there. But going forward into the fall, there may be some downside, too."
Hard to disagree with that.
"When we have so much liquidity pervasive throughout the system and it has to have somewhere to go. So it's really hard to fight this melt-up at this particular point. That's something to consider in the short term. But I think in the long term, you still need to be aware of the fundamentals and what you own. And there may be some upside there. But going forward into the fall, there may be some downside, too."
Hard to disagree with that.
Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"
This is pretty bold: the analyst doesn’t even mention the possibility of a sideways market!
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Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"
She's not just an analyst, she's an owner/president of a capital management company and adjunct professor in finance.
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Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"
She’s really going out on a limb with that prediction.runninginvestor wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 6:53 am She's not just an analyst, she's an owner/president of a capital management company and adjunct professor in finance.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions
Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"
I’m going to abandon Boglehead investing principles and do whatever this analyst recommends.
Now, what exactly does she want me to do?
Now, what exactly does she want me to do?
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"
There will be a cat 5 hurricane.... at some point
There will be a 7.0+ earthquake ... at some point
Eggs will go on sale ... at some point
There will be a 7.0+ earthquake ... at some point
Eggs will go on sale ... at some point
Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"
so i read the article. the headline is not something she said. i don't think there is any useful advice but this quote is interesting
"MICHELLE CONNELL: It's probably the same question or concern that investors are discussing or a consumer in the store-- like, yesterday I was in a store in Dallas-Fort Worth, and everybody's talking about the prices. It's inflation. And especially for clients that are close to retirement or in distribution phase, they're really concerned if their portfolio is going to last. Or if it's going to last, is it going to maintain their lifestyle? So those are the calls that I'm getting. They-- of course, they appreciate the melt-up, but is this money going to last? That's the number one call that I'm getting from most of my clients."
Reading between the lines, i think near-retirees/retirees are worried about a high inflation scenario coupled with poor stock market performance. I think that's a valid concern. IIRC the worst year for a 4% SWR was 1966 when this sort of scenario played out and the SWR strategy failed after 33 years.
viewtopic.php?p=6011838#p6011838
"MICHELLE CONNELL: It's probably the same question or concern that investors are discussing or a consumer in the store-- like, yesterday I was in a store in Dallas-Fort Worth, and everybody's talking about the prices. It's inflation. And especially for clients that are close to retirement or in distribution phase, they're really concerned if their portfolio is going to last. Or if it's going to last, is it going to maintain their lifestyle? So those are the calls that I'm getting. They-- of course, they appreciate the melt-up, but is this money going to last? That's the number one call that I'm getting from most of my clients."
Reading between the lines, i think near-retirees/retirees are worried about a high inflation scenario coupled with poor stock market performance. I think that's a valid concern. IIRC the worst year for a 4% SWR was 1966 when this sort of scenario played out and the SWR strategy failed after 33 years.
viewtopic.php?p=6011838#p6011838
RIP Mr. Bogle.
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Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"
To be fair, if I were to invest with an advisor, I wouldn't want one with strong convictions either (going all in on one idea, company, philosophy). I'd stick around a little while longer to listen to an advisor that tries to flesh out a little more nuance. Which often sounds like hedging both sides when talking about markets & predictions. I'd rather see more investment articles try to give reason and theory as to why the market could go in either direction, than just give a point in time prediction in one sitting.Grt2bOutdoors wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 7:05 amShe’s really going out on a limb with that prediction.runninginvestor wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 6:53 am She's not just an analyst, she's an owner/president of a capital management company and adjunct professor in finance.
Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"
I was in a store yesterday and I didn't hear anyone talking about the prices.grok87 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 7:44 am so i read the article. the headline is not something she said. i don't think there is any useful advice but this quote is interesting
"MICHELLE CONNELL: It's probably the same question or concern that investors are discussing or a consumer in the store-- like, yesterday I was in a store in Dallas-Fort Worth, and everybody's talking about the prices. It's inflation. And especially for clients that are close to retirement or in distribution phase, they're really concerned if their portfolio is going to last. Or if it's going to last, is it going to maintain their lifestyle? So those are the calls that I'm getting. They-- of course, they appreciate the melt-up, but is this money going to last? That's the number one call that I'm getting from most of my clients."
Reading between the lines, i think near-retirees/retirees are worried about a high inflation scenario coupled with poor stock market performance. I think that's a valid concern. IIRC the worst year for a 4% SWR was 1966 when this sort of scenario played out and the SWR strategy failed after 33 years.
viewtopic.php?p=6011838#p6011838
Any of you go to stores where everyone is chattering loudly about the prices?
I haven't seen much of an uptick myself. But then we always look for sales. So far, sale prices seem about the same.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"
The doom-and-gloom set are doomed to be wrong most of the time since stocks go up most of the time. Corporations are making money and so stocks should go up, it's that simple. Any attempt at predicting more than that centuries-long trend is going to be a coin flip.
70% Global Stocks / 30% Bonds
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Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"
He's not wrong.
In the parlance of the headline: "I may be wrong, but I may be right."
In the parlance of the headline: "I may be wrong, but I may be right."
Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"
Given how compressed the 2020 crash was if today is the roaring 20's is it really going to be 1929 by fall?
Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"
"Periods of increasing darkness tonight following sundown, followed by increasing light tomorrow after sunrise.
This pattern will repeat far into the future without interruption."
//begin rant**
Just another talking head filling in the gaps between commercials,
The only better job than a Financial Analyst on TV discussing the reason why the market performed like it did (past tense)?
The weather guesser's telling us what the temperature was today--past tense.
An alternative?
The morons that are put on the tube telling us what is going to happen in the future.
The ONLY ONE that ever held them accountable that I can remember was Louis Rukeyser--he had his mid-year and end-year round up where he held them accountable for their predictions.
Heaven forbid that this ever happens today.
(Ref: Jim Cramer, Feb 2000 predictions)
No accountability, period.
It is the finance industry's equivalent of WWF/WCW to competitive athletics (known as "Sports Entertainment Television")
IMNSHO, it should be called "Financial Market Entertainment Television"
**end rant//
This pattern will repeat far into the future without interruption."
//begin rant**
Just another talking head filling in the gaps between commercials,
The only better job than a Financial Analyst on TV discussing the reason why the market performed like it did (past tense)?
The weather guesser's telling us what the temperature was today--past tense.
An alternative?
The morons that are put on the tube telling us what is going to happen in the future.
The ONLY ONE that ever held them accountable that I can remember was Louis Rukeyser--he had his mid-year and end-year round up where he held them accountable for their predictions.
Heaven forbid that this ever happens today.
(Ref: Jim Cramer, Feb 2000 predictions)
No accountability, period.
It is the finance industry's equivalent of WWF/WCW to competitive athletics (known as "Sports Entertainment Television")
IMNSHO, it should be called "Financial Market Entertainment Television"
**end rant//
Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"
This reads like yet another rant about clickbait. Yet it intrigued you enough to click.
I'm not sure the point of these kinds of threads, if the answer is that obvious. Is any part of this "actionable"?
I'm not sure the point of these kinds of threads, if the answer is that obvious. Is any part of this "actionable"?
This isn't just my wallet. It's an organizer, a memory and an old friend.
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Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"
I’m seeing people “talk” about prices in an indirect manner - they either purchase less or none of the product. That in a way is letting their wallet send a message to store managers that the prices are too high (talking about products or services that were normally in higher demand).HomerJ wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 8:19 amI was in a store yesterday and I didn't hear anyone talking about the prices.grok87 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 7:44 am so i read the article. the headline is not something she said. i don't think there is any useful advice but this quote is interesting
"MICHELLE CONNELL: It's probably the same question or concern that investors are discussing or a consumer in the store-- like, yesterday I was in a store in Dallas-Fort Worth, and everybody's talking about the prices. It's inflation. And especially for clients that are close to retirement or in distribution phase, they're really concerned if their portfolio is going to last. Or if it's going to last, is it going to maintain their lifestyle? So those are the calls that I'm getting. They-- of course, they appreciate the melt-up, but is this money going to last? That's the number one call that I'm getting from most of my clients."
Reading between the lines, i think near-retirees/retirees are worried about a high inflation scenario coupled with poor stock market performance. I think that's a valid concern. IIRC the worst year for a 4% SWR was 1966 when this sort of scenario played out and the SWR strategy failed after 33 years.
viewtopic.php?p=6011838#p6011838
Any of you go to stores where everyone is chattering loudly about the prices?
I haven't seen much of an uptick myself. But then we always look for sales. So far, sale prices seem about the same.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions
Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"
I'm going to keep saying this every time someone says there's a crash coming.
Show me your 100x leveraged shorts on the S&P or shut up.
The doomsday crowd needs to get called out more. There's no penalty for these gurus that keep being wrong year after year. Then one of them does inevitably gets calls it and everyone thinks he's a genius, despite being wrong for a decade.
Show me your 100x leveraged shorts on the S&P or shut up.
The doomsday crowd needs to get called out more. There's no penalty for these gurus that keep being wrong year after year. Then one of them does inevitably gets calls it and everyone thinks he's a genius, despite being wrong for a decade.
Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"
"And there may be some upside there. But going forward into the fall, there may be some downside, too."
I can recall statements like this being said over the years since I started investing in
1980
Dow 887
I can recall statements like this being said over the years since I started investing in
1980
Dow 887
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee
Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"
Agreed. Grantham and Dent immediately come to mind.Actin wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 6:20 pm I'm going to keep saying this every time someone says there's a crash coming.
Show me your 100x leveraged shorts on the S&P or shut up.
The doomsday crowd needs to get called out more. There's no penalty for these gurus that keep being wrong year after year. Then one of them does inevitably gets calls it and everyone thinks he's a genius, despite being wrong for a decade.
Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"
maybe she as in a used car store? or at a lumber yard ?HomerJ wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 8:19 amI was in a store yesterday and I didn't hear anyone talking about the prices.grok87 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 7:44 am so i read the article. the headline is not something she said. i don't think there is any useful advice but this quote is interesting
"MICHELLE CONNELL: It's probably the same question or concern that investors are discussing or a consumer in the store-- like, yesterday I was in a store in Dallas-Fort Worth, and everybody's talking about the prices. It's inflation. And especially for clients that are close to retirement or in distribution phase, they're really concerned if their portfolio is going to last. Or if it's going to last, is it going to maintain their lifestyle? So those are the calls that I'm getting. They-- of course, they appreciate the melt-up, but is this money going to last? That's the number one call that I'm getting from most of my clients."
Reading between the lines, i think near-retirees/retirees are worried about a high inflation scenario coupled with poor stock market performance. I think that's a valid concern. IIRC the worst year for a 4% SWR was 1966 when this sort of scenario played out and the SWR strategy failed after 33 years.
viewtopic.php?p=6011838#p6011838
Any of you go to stores where everyone is chattering loudly about the prices?
I haven't seen much of an uptick myself. But then we always look for sales. So far, sale prices seem about the same.
RIP Mr. Bogle.
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Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"
I made this prediction too, that it will go down at some point but may go up first.. however I was not paid for this rigorous analysis
Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"
Total word salad. And in the quote from OP, they don’t actually say anything at all.
I think it was stocknoob that nailed the BH2020 contest. I will lesson to stocknoob, but ignore everybody else.
I think it was stocknoob that nailed the BH2020 contest. I will lesson to stocknoob, but ignore everybody else.
Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"
I’ll further predict that at some point, my kid will look at the stock prices of 2021 and shake their head in disbelief at how cheap they were.
- drumboy256
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Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"
SP500 will probably hit 5200 before we get a correction at this point.
Promise is one thing. Fulfilling that promise is quite another. - Sir Alex Ferguson |
20% IVV / 40% IBIT / 20% IXUS / 20% VGLT + chill
Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"
Firesign Theater: Midnight news of "Big light in sky forecast for this morning."
Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"
Yes. The action would be for the OP to send their "snoozing Fred Flintstone" avatar image to the article author... no words, just the image.
Strategic Macro Senior (top 1%, 2019 Bogleheads Contest)
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Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"
Yes, and Louis Rukeyser was even funny, too!
“Now shall I walk or shall I ride? |
'Ride,' Pleasure said; |
'Walk,' Joy replied.” |
|
― W.H. Davies
Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"
thanks.
looks like they have had quite the rollercoaster ride this year
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/commodities/lbs
RIP Mr. Bogle.
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Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"
I don't have conversations in stores regardless.HomerJ wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 8:19 am
I was in a store yesterday and I didn't hear anyone talking about the prices.
Any of you go to stores where everyone is chattering loudly about the prices?
I haven't seen much of an uptick myself. But then we always look for sales. So far, sale prices seem about the same.
I'm have seen stories about major companies raising prices.
Yes, we have noticed an uptick in the prices of specific things, and moreso the lack of sales on items that we often bought on sale pre-pandemic. We always got milk for $1.99 or less per gallon. Now it's regularly $2.75 or higher.
We bought eggs on sale for $.49 or $.75 per dozen, now $1.05 or higher. Sugar was always a regular sale item, no longer.
Watch carefully for size reductions without price increases.
Avid user of forums on variety of interests-financial, home brewing, F-150, EV, home repair, etc. Enjoy learning & passing on knowledge. It's PRINCIPAL, not PRINCIPLE. I ADVISE you to seek ADVICE.
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Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"
This is a great reminder. Thanks. We don't own lottery tickets (Peter Lynch paraphrase). We own shares of companies that create things and earn profits.z3r0c00l wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 8:36 am The doom-and-gloom set are doomed to be wrong most of the time since stocks go up most of the time. Corporations are making money and so stocks should go up, it's that simple. Any attempt at predicting more than that centuries-long trend is going to be a coin flip.
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Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"
^^ Interesting piece on the Marketplace podcast the other day about "shrinkflation."RickBoglehead wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 6:35 am Watch carefully for size reductions without price increases.
Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"
So there is no crash coming and we can see your 100x leverage buys on the S&P?Actin wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 6:20 pm I'm going to keep saying this every time someone says there's a crash coming.
Show me your 100x leveraged shorts on the S&P or shut up.
The doomsday crowd needs to get called out more. There's no penalty for these gurus that keep being wrong year after year. Then one of them does inevitably gets calls it and everyone thinks he's a genius, despite being wrong for a decade.
Yes, there's a crash coming. Hence my larger than desired bond allocation (ie > 0%). If I felt strongly that a crash wasn't going to happen over the next year I'd be 100% UPRO.
Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"
With this as a basis for investment then valuations should matter a lot more to investors than has been evidenced by actual recent market behavior...GoneOnTilt wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 8:03 amThis is a great reminder. Thanks. We don't own lottery tickets (Peter Lynch paraphrase). We own shares of companies that create things and earn profits.z3r0c00l wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 8:36 am The doom-and-gloom set are doomed to be wrong most of the time since stocks go up most of the time. Corporations are making money and so stocks should go up, it's that simple. Any attempt at predicting more than that centuries-long trend is going to be a coin flip.
The doom and gloom set is essentially folks that look at current price vs how much profit is being made and how much is expected in the future and thinking "Whoa...those are seriously out of whack".
The issue is in the past they've stayed seriously out of whack a lot longer than you'd think they could. If you left more on the table than you would have lost then staying in a more aggressive AA is the better course of action...