When I see things like the above -- like the US having greater natural resources, stronger immigration, special in whatever way -- I do wonder to what extent they would be priced in. As they are things that are widely known, it isn't unreasonable to expect valuations to reflect them IMO. Of course you can say that the markets aren't efficient etc, but how does one know that for sure going forward?TN_Boy wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 4:48 pm Point 2) is important, just like 4) is important. US population much larger than Japan, US much greater natural resources, US much stronger immigration etc.
The US has clearly been "special." Whether this "specialness" will continue is a matter of speculation and we care about forward returns, not backward ones.
While I disagree with a US only portfolio, even for a US investor, I don't think it is completely foolish.
I also don't think US only is completely foolish, I just think it isn't the best choice. Given that my stocks are 60% US/40% int'l I do better when the US outperforms.