"What about those great companies you're missing?"

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AlwaysLearningMore
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"What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by AlwaysLearningMore »

Out of curiosity I wanted to look at the point brought up about "all the great companies you're missing out on e.g. Nestle, Total SA, Novartis, AstraZeneca."
e.g., https://tinyurl.com/yzbdmw84

So I looked for a rough estimate as to how those companies have fared against US TSM.
The furthest back I could find on M* to compare all was January 6, 2003:
Image

(Personally, I have held a modest allocation to int'l equities, so the poor performance of int'l hampered my returns as well.)
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starboi
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by starboi »

Sounds like they're on sale, then.
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AlwaysLearningMore
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by AlwaysLearningMore »

starboi wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:10 am Sounds like they're on sale, then.
The "sale" has lasted an awfully long time.
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Picasso
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by Picasso »

0% of my portfolio is allocated to the underperformance of international equities
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by starboi »

AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:29 am
starboi wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:10 am Sounds like they're on sale, then.
The "sale" has lasted an awfully long time.
Good, more time for me to accumulate.
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by Nathan Drake »

AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:29 am
starboi wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:10 am Sounds like they're on sale, then.
The "sale" has lasted an awfully long time.
It has for companies like Microsoft as well. That has recently turned out well. Similarly for Apple.

Long periods of poor performance tell us nothing about the future.
Last edited by Nathan Drake on Tue May 18, 2021 11:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by Nathan Drake »

Picasso wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:32 am 0% of my portfolio is allocated to the underperformance of international equities
Is 100% of it allocated to the beat asset class this past decade (Crypto?)

If not, I wonder why you would hold such an underperforming clunker like VTSAX
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AlwaysLearningMore
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by AlwaysLearningMore »

starboi wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:33 am
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:29 am
starboi wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:10 am Sounds like they're on sale, then.
The "sale" has lasted an awfully long time.
Good, more time for me to accumulate.
Returns roughly equal to US TBM since 1996. For reference, the first flip phone (Motorola StarTAC) went on sale in January 1996.
Image
Last edited by AlwaysLearningMore on Tue May 18, 2021 12:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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anon_investor
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by anon_investor »

Nathan Drake wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:39 am
Picasso wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:32 am 0% of my portfolio is allocated to the underperformance of international equities
Is 100% of it allocated to the beat asset class this past decade (Crypto?)

If not, I wonder why you would hold such an underperforming clunker like VTSAX
Obviously the OP's crystal ball was not working. If the goal is diversification, world market cap weight (e.g. VT) makes the most sense. If someone wants to make a more concentraited bet but have at least some diversification, VTSAX/VTI is not a bad way to go. Certainly better than individual stock picking or crypto.
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by Nathan Drake »

AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:45 am
starboi wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:33 am
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:29 am
starboi wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:10 am Sounds like they're on sale, then.
The "sale" has lasted an awfully long time.
Good, more time for me to accumulate.
Returns roughly equal to US TBM since 1996. For reference, the first flip phone (Motorola StarTAC went on sale in January 1996).
Image
The past is clear

The future is not

This is just another anti-Intl post with cherry picked start/end dates

What actionable moves do your graphs show?
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retiringwhen
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by retiringwhen »

I remember the decade that had 0 in the 3rd digit. I was "only" allocating 15% of my equities in ex-US stocks. If I had to do it over, I would have made the % much higher like 25%.
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AlwaysLearningMore
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by AlwaysLearningMore »

Nathan Drake wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:37 am
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:29 am
starboi wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:10 am Sounds like they're on sale, then.
The "sale" has lasted an awfully long time.
It has for companies like Microsoft as well. That has recently turned out well. Similarly for Apple.

Long periods of poor performance tell us nothing about the future.
It appears as though Microsoft more than held its own against Total International, not just recently. (M* can track back to January 1997.)
Image
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starboi
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by starboi »

AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:45 am
starboi wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:33 am
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:29 am
starboi wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:10 am Sounds like they're on sale, then.
The "sale" has lasted an awfully long time.
Good, more time for me to accumulate.
Returns roughly equal to US TBM since 1996. For reference, the first flip phone (Motorola StarTAC went on sale in January 1996).
Image
I have 0% bonds (except for VGSH which is near cash), so that works for me.
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by seajay »

The US is great at acquisition/domicile of great companies.

Own 100 domestic stocks and one doubles the rest stay unchanged and the index is uplifted by 1% assuming equal $$$ weightings. Own 1000 global stocks and one might rise ten-fold to uplift the index by 1%. The majority of stocks lag the index/average. Treble or more the number of right tail/great stocks and more the better. And the US is good at growing/attracting/buying more than its fair share of right tailers.
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AlwaysLearningMore
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by AlwaysLearningMore »

anon_investor wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:46 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:39 am
Picasso wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:32 am 0% of my portfolio is allocated to the underperformance of international equities
Is 100% of it allocated to the beat asset class this past decade (Crypto?)

If not, I wonder why you would hold such an underperforming clunker like VTSAX
Obviously the OP's crystal ball was not working. If the goal is diversification, world market cap weight (e.g. VT) makes the most sense. If someone wants to make a more concentraited bet but have at least some diversification, VTSAX/VTI is not a bad way to go. Certainly better than individual stock picking or crypto.
Please re-read the OP. It was about the individual securities which are often touted as "great companies" that are lost to US-only investors.


No prognostications made, no crystal ball needed.
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gwe67
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by gwe67 »

AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:00 pm
anon_investor wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:46 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:39 am
Picasso wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:32 am 0% of my portfolio is allocated to the underperformance of international equities
Is 100% of it allocated to the beat asset class this past decade (Crypto?)

If not, I wonder why you would hold such an underperforming clunker like VTSAX
Obviously the OP's crystal ball was not working. If the goal is diversification, world market cap weight (e.g. VT) makes the most sense. If someone wants to make a more concentraited bet but have at least some diversification, VTSAX/VTI is not a bad way to go. Certainly better than individual stock picking or crypto.
Please re-read the OP. It was about the individual securities which are often touted as "great companies" that are lost to US-only investors.


No prognostications made, no crystal ball needed.
Actually, winning lottery tickets beat Crapto this past decade.
VTI 48%, VXUS 12%, BND 40%
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by Nathan Drake »

AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:56 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:37 am
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:29 am
starboi wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:10 am Sounds like they're on sale, then.
The "sale" has lasted an awfully long time.
It has for companies like Microsoft as well. That has recently turned out well. Similarly for Apple.

Long periods of poor performance tell us nothing about the future.
It appears as though Microsoft more than held its own against Total International, not just recently. (M* can track back to January 1997.)
Image
“Held its own” meaning performed poorly for a very long time? Yes

Until it didn’t
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AlwaysLearningMore
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by AlwaysLearningMore »

Nathan Drake wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:47 am
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:45 am
starboi wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:33 am
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:29 am
starboi wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:10 am Sounds like they're on sale, then.
The "sale" has lasted an awfully long time.
Good, more time for me to accumulate.
Returns roughly equal to US TBM since 1996. For reference, the first flip phone (Motorola StarTAC went on sale in January 1996).
Image
...This is just another anti-Intl post with cherry picked start/end dates....
The start date on this graph reflects the maximum overlap time for all to be compared; it's as far back as I could find M* will go on these performance graphs. They're not cherry-picked.
Retirement is best when you have a lot to live on, and a lot to live for. * None of what I post is investment advice.* | FIRE'd July 2023
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by Nathan Drake »

AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:10 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:47 am
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:45 am
starboi wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:33 am
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:29 am

The "sale" has lasted an awfully long time.
Good, more time for me to accumulate.
Returns roughly equal to US TBM since 1996. For reference, the first flip phone (Motorola StarTAC went on sale in January 1996).
Image
...This is just another anti-Intl post with cherry picked start/end dates....
The start date on this graph reflects the maximum overlap time for all to be compared; it's as far back as I could find M* will go on these performance graphs. They're not cherry-picked.
It’s not long enough, and the end date is cherry picked
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AlwaysLearningMore
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by AlwaysLearningMore »

Nathan Drake wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:05 pm
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:56 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:37 am
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:29 am
starboi wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:10 am Sounds like they're on sale, then.
The "sale" has lasted an awfully long time.
It has for companies like Microsoft as well. That has recently turned out well. Similarly for Apple.

Long periods of poor performance tell us nothing about the future.
It appears as though Microsoft more than held its own against Total International, not just recently. (M* can track back to January 1997.)
Image
“Held its own” meaning performed poorly for a very long time? Yes

Until it didn’t
Seems Microsoft has had better returns than VG Total International when comparing as far back as January 1997 (as far back as I can find on M*).
This thread was started with the premise of looking at "all the great companies you're missing out on e.g. Nestle, Total SA, Novartis, AstraZeneca."
Retirement is best when you have a lot to live on, and a lot to live for. * None of what I post is investment advice.* | FIRE'd July 2023
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anon_investor
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by anon_investor »

AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:00 pm
anon_investor wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:46 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:39 am
Picasso wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:32 am 0% of my portfolio is allocated to the underperformance of international equities
Is 100% of it allocated to the beat asset class this past decade (Crypto?)

If not, I wonder why you would hold such an underperforming clunker like VTSAX
Obviously the OP's crystal ball was not working. If the goal is diversification, world market cap weight (e.g. VT) makes the most sense. If someone wants to make a more concentraited bet but have at least some diversification, VTSAX/VTI is not a bad way to go. Certainly better than individual stock picking or crypto.
Please re-read the OP. It was about the individual securities which are often touted as "great companies" that are lost to US-only investors.


No prognostications made, no crystal ball needed.
Who says great companies are going to provide out-performance? Those are not very exciting compared to the FAANG stocks. I think they are more comparable to say Pfizer, P&G, Coca-Cola, etc. Maybe compare those?
scout1
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by scout1 »

anon_investor wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:23 pm
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:00 pm
anon_investor wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:46 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:39 am
Picasso wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:32 am 0% of my portfolio is allocated to the underperformance of international equities
Is 100% of it allocated to the beat asset class this past decade (Crypto?)

If not, I wonder why you would hold such an underperforming clunker like VTSAX
Obviously the OP's crystal ball was not working. If the goal is diversification, world market cap weight (e.g. VT) makes the most sense. If someone wants to make a more concentraited bet but have at least some diversification, VTSAX/VTI is not a bad way to go. Certainly better than individual stock picking or crypto.
Please re-read the OP. It was about the individual securities which are often touted as "great companies" that are lost to US-only investors.


No prognostications made, no crystal ball needed.
Who says great companies are going to provide out-performance? Those are not very exciting compared to the FAANG stocks. I think they are more comparable to say Pfizer, P&G, Coca-Cola, etc. Maybe compare those?
This. There are a many poorly performing "great" US companies to choose from T, GE, MO, GM, PRU, etc.
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by Nathan Drake »

AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:19 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:05 pm
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:56 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:37 am
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:29 am

The "sale" has lasted an awfully long time.
It has for companies like Microsoft as well. That has recently turned out well. Similarly for Apple.

Long periods of poor performance tell us nothing about the future.
It appears as though Microsoft more than held its own against Total International, not just recently. (M* can track back to January 1997.)
Image
“Held its own” meaning performed poorly for a very long time? Yes

Until it didn’t
Seems Microsoft has had better returns than VG Total International when comparing as far back as January 1997 (as far back as I can find on M*).
This thread was started with the premise of looking at "all the great companies you're missing out on e.g. Nestle, Total SA, Novartis, AstraZeneca."
They were effectively a wash until very recently
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AlwaysLearningMore
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by AlwaysLearningMore »

anon_investor wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:23 pm
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:00 pm
anon_investor wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:46 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:39 am
Picasso wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:32 am 0% of my portfolio is allocated to the underperformance of international equities
Is 100% of it allocated to the beat asset class this past decade (Crypto?)

If not, I wonder why you would hold such an underperforming clunker like VTSAX
Obviously the OP's crystal ball was not working. If the goal is diversification, world market cap weight (e.g. VT) makes the most sense. If someone wants to make a more concentraited bet but have at least some diversification, VTSAX/VTI is not a bad way to go. Certainly better than individual stock picking or crypto.
Please re-read the OP. It was about the individual securities which are often touted as "great companies" that are lost to US-only investors.


No prognostications made, no crystal ball needed.
Who says great companies are going to provide out-performance? Those are not very exciting compared to the FAANG stocks. I think they are more comparable to say Pfizer, P&G, Coca-Cola, etc. Maybe compare those?
The premise of the OP was to see how the 4 international "great companies" (brought up in a prior thread, linked in the OP) fared compared against TSM, and if a US-only investor would have made more money holding those stocks.
Retirement is best when you have a lot to live on, and a lot to live for. * None of what I post is investment advice.* | FIRE'd July 2023
Nathan Drake
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by Nathan Drake »

AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:35 pm
anon_investor wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:23 pm
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:00 pm
anon_investor wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:46 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:39 am

Is 100% of it allocated to the beat asset class this past decade (Crypto?)

If not, I wonder why you would hold such an underperforming clunker like VTSAX
Obviously the OP's crystal ball was not working. If the goal is diversification, world market cap weight (e.g. VT) makes the most sense. If someone wants to make a more concentraited bet but have at least some diversification, VTSAX/VTI is not a bad way to go. Certainly better than individual stock picking or crypto.
Please re-read the OP. It was about the individual securities which are often touted as "great companies" that are lost to US-only investors.


No prognostications made, no crystal ball needed.
Who says great companies are going to provide out-performance? Those are not very exciting compared to the FAANG stocks. I think they are more comparable to say Pfizer, P&G, Coca-Cola, etc. Maybe compare those?
The premise of the OP was to see how the 4 international "great companies" (brought up in a prior thread, linked in the OP) fared compared against TSM, and if a US-only investor would have made more money holding those stocks.
Yes, but what about the future?
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drk
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by drk »

Nathan Drake wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:47 am The past is clear
Even that's murky. I recommend reading AQR's paper "The Long Run is Lying to You" rather than wasting time on another one of these tedious threads.
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
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AlwaysLearningMore
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by AlwaysLearningMore »

Nathan Drake wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:33 pm
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:19 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:05 pm
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:56 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:37 am

It has for companies like Microsoft as well. That has recently turned out well. Similarly for Apple.

Long periods of poor performance tell us nothing about the future.
It appears as though Microsoft more than held its own against Total International, not just recently. (M* can track back to January 1997.)
Image
“Held its own” meaning performed poorly for a very long time? Yes

Until it didn’t
Seems Microsoft has had better returns than VG Total International when comparing as far back as January 1997 (as far back as I can find on M*).
This thread was started with the premise of looking at "all the great companies you're missing out on e.g. Nestle, Total SA, Novartis, AstraZeneca."
They were effectively a wash until very recently
Your words "...performed very poorly for a long time...."
Yet as far as I can tell, Microsoft has always performed better than Vanguard Total Int'l.
Retirement is best when you have a lot to live on, and a lot to live for. * None of what I post is investment advice.* | FIRE'd July 2023
Nathan Drake
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by Nathan Drake »

AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:48 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:33 pm
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:19 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:05 pm
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:56 am

It appears as though Microsoft more than held its own against Total International, not just recently. (M* can track back to January 1997.)
Image
“Held its own” meaning performed poorly for a very long time? Yes

Until it didn’t
Seems Microsoft has had better returns than VG Total International when comparing as far back as January 1997 (as far back as I can find on M*).
This thread was started with the premise of looking at "all the great companies you're missing out on e.g. Nestle, Total SA, Novartis, AstraZeneca."
They were effectively a wash until very recently
Your words "...performed very poorly for a long time...."
Yet as far as I can tell, Microsoft has always performed better than Vanguard Total Int'l.
Oh, okay, so it very slightly outperformed (effectively a wash)

What’s your point exactly?
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burritoLover
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by burritoLover »

AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 10:56 am Out of curiosity I wanted to look at the point brought up about "all the great companies you're missing out on e.g. Nestle, Total SA, Novartis, AstraZeneca."

So I looked for a rough estimate as to how those companies have fared against US TSM.
The furthest back I could find on M* to compare all was January 6, 2003:

(Personally, I have held a modest allocation to int'l equities, so the poor performance of int'l hampered my returns as well.)
Be sure to leave out any outperforming intl stocks that don't fit with your pre-conceived agenda such as TCEHY which has a 32% CAGR. Besides the fact that this is a ridiculous comparison to begin with.
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AlwaysLearningMore
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by AlwaysLearningMore »

burritoLover wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:59 pm
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 10:56 am Out of curiosity I wanted to look at the point brought up about "all the great companies you're missing out on e.g. Nestle, Total SA, Novartis, AstraZeneca."

So I looked for a rough estimate as to how those companies have fared against US TSM.
The furthest back I could find on M* to compare all was January 6, 2003:

(Personally, I have held a modest allocation to int'l equities, so the poor performance of int'l hampered my returns as well.)
Be sure to leave out any outperforming intl stocks that don't fit with your pre-conceived agenda such as TCEHY which has a 32% CAGR. Besides the fact that this is a ridiculous comparison to begin with.
The OP contains a link to the 4 stocks brought up by another poster in that thread. The premise of my comparison was to see if holding those stocks would have made a US-only investor more money.

Feel free to start your own thread on TCEHY, or any other financial entity.
Retirement is best when you have a lot to live on, and a lot to live for. * None of what I post is investment advice.* | FIRE'd July 2023
Nathan Drake
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by Nathan Drake »

AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 1:03 pm
burritoLover wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:59 pm
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 10:56 am Out of curiosity I wanted to look at the point brought up about "all the great companies you're missing out on e.g. Nestle, Total SA, Novartis, AstraZeneca."

So I looked for a rough estimate as to how those companies have fared against US TSM.
The furthest back I could find on M* to compare all was January 6, 2003:

(Personally, I have held a modest allocation to int'l equities, so the poor performance of int'l hampered my returns as well.)
Be sure to leave out any outperforming intl stocks that don't fit with your pre-conceived agenda such as TCEHY which has a 32% CAGR. Besides the fact that this is a ridiculous comparison to begin with.
The OP contains a link to the 4 stocks brought up by another poster in that thread. The premise of my comparison was to see if holding those stocks would have made a US-only investor more money.

Feel free to start your own thread on TCEHY, or any other financial entity.
The future is not known

The 4 companies in the OP could be great investments going forward

Their lackluster past performance is a meaningless metric
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burritoLover
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by burritoLover »

AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 1:03 pm
burritoLover wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:59 pm
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 10:56 am Out of curiosity I wanted to look at the point brought up about "all the great companies you're missing out on e.g. Nestle, Total SA, Novartis, AstraZeneca."

So I looked for a rough estimate as to how those companies have fared against US TSM.
The furthest back I could find on M* to compare all was January 6, 2003:

(Personally, I have held a modest allocation to int'l equities, so the poor performance of int'l hampered my returns as well.)
Be sure to leave out any outperforming intl stocks that don't fit with your pre-conceived agenda such as TCEHY which has a 32% CAGR. Besides the fact that this is a ridiculous comparison to begin with.
The OP contains a link to the 4 stocks brought up by another poster in that thread. The premise of my comparison was to see if holding those stocks would have made a US-only investor more money.

Feel free to start your own thread on TCEHY, or any other financial entity.
Didn't need a new thread then - this whole premise is ridiculous to begin with. I feel like I'm in another dividend chasing thread except this time it is about international stocks.
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by minesweep »

Nathan Drake wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:37 pm
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:35 pm
anon_investor wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:23 pm
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:00 pm
anon_investor wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:46 am

Obviously the OP's crystal ball was not working. If the goal is diversification, world market cap weight (e.g. VT) makes the most sense. If someone wants to make a more concentraited bet but have at least some diversification, VTSAX/VTI is not a bad way to go. Certainly better than individual stock picking or crypto.
Please re-read the OP. It was about the individual securities which are often touted as "great companies" that are lost to US-only investors.


No prognostications made, no crystal ball needed.
Who says great companies are going to provide out-performance? Those are not very exciting compared to the FAANG stocks. I think they are more comparable to say Pfizer, P&G, Coca-Cola, etc. Maybe compare those?
The premise of the OP was to see how the 4 international "great companies" (brought up in a prior thread, linked in the OP) fared compared against TSM, and if a US-only investor would have made more money holding those stocks.
Yes, but what about the future?
If only I had a retrofitted DMC Delorean equipped with a flux capacitor and 1.21 gigawatts of power going 88 miles per hour. I could make a killing in the stock market after my return. :moneybag
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by Da5id »

AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 1:03 pm
burritoLover wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:59 pm
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 10:56 am Out of curiosity I wanted to look at the point brought up about "all the great companies you're missing out on e.g. Nestle, Total SA, Novartis, AstraZeneca."

So I looked for a rough estimate as to how those companies have fared against US TSM.
The furthest back I could find on M* to compare all was January 6, 2003:

(Personally, I have held a modest allocation to int'l equities, so the poor performance of int'l hampered my returns as well.)
Be sure to leave out any outperforming intl stocks that don't fit with your pre-conceived agenda such as TCEHY which has a 32% CAGR. Besides the fact that this is a ridiculous comparison to begin with.
The OP contains a link to the 4 stocks brought up by another poster in that thread. The premise of my comparison was to see if holding those stocks would have made a US-only investor more money.

Feel free to start your own thread on TCEHY, or any other financial entity.
What is your take home message then? I'm fine owning those 4 stocks. And the underperforming companies of US TSM just as much. That is part of the deal of being diversified and index investing. One doesn't know in advance what companies (or countries) will outperform.
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by anon_investor »

AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:35 pm
anon_investor wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:23 pm
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:00 pm
anon_investor wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:46 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:39 am

Is 100% of it allocated to the beat asset class this past decade (Crypto?)

If not, I wonder why you would hold such an underperforming clunker like VTSAX
Obviously the OP's crystal ball was not working. If the goal is diversification, world market cap weight (e.g. VT) makes the most sense. If someone wants to make a more concentraited bet but have at least some diversification, VTSAX/VTI is not a bad way to go. Certainly better than individual stock picking or crypto.
Please re-read the OP. It was about the individual securities which are often touted as "great companies" that are lost to US-only investors.


No prognostications made, no crystal ball needed.
Who says great companies are going to provide out-performance? Those are not very exciting compared to the FAANG stocks. I think they are more comparable to say Pfizer, P&G, Coca-Cola, etc. Maybe compare those?
The premise of the OP was to see how the 4 international "great companies" (brought up in a prior thread, linked in the OP) fared compared against TSM, and if a US-only investor would have made more money holding those stocks.
But that is not a fair comparison. Those 4 international companies are low growth, probably considered more value. The US TSM is heavily tech/growth tilted, a better comparison might be taking some foreign tech companies.
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by BeBH65 »

AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:56 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:37 am
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:29 am
starboi wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:10 am Sounds like they're on sale, then.
The "sale" has lasted an awfully long time.
It has for companies like Microsoft as well. That has recently turned out well. Similarly for Apple.

Long periods of poor performance tell us nothing about the future.
It appears as though Microsoft more than held its own against Total International, not just recently. (M* can track back to January 1997.)
Image
I notice that you take a different starting date form this graph than in your original graph.
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by minimalistmarc »

:sharebeer
starboi wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:33 am
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:29 am
starboi wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:10 am Sounds like they're on sale, then.
The "sale" has lasted an awfully long time.
Good, more time for me to accumulate.
Exactly :sharebeer
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by watchnerd »

AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 10:56 am So I looked for a rough estimate as to how those companies have fared against US TSM.
And US TSM got crushed versus just putting everything in TSLA:

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion2_2=100

The point of the OP seems incredibly silly.
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by minesweep »

minesweep wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 1:19 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:37 pm
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:35 pm
anon_investor wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:23 pm
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 12:00 pm

Please re-read the OP. It was about the individual securities which are often touted as "great companies" that are lost to US-only investors.


No prognostications made, no crystal ball needed.
Who says great companies are going to provide out-performance? Those are not very exciting compared to the FAANG stocks. I think they are more comparable to say Pfizer, P&G, Coca-Cola, etc. Maybe compare those?
The premise of the OP was to see how the 4 international "great companies" (brought up in a prior thread, linked in the OP) fared compared against TSM, and if a US-only investor would have made more money holding those stocks.
Yes, but what about the future?
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AlwaysLearningMore
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by AlwaysLearningMore »

BeBH65 wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 1:25 pm
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:56 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:37 am
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:29 am
starboi wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:10 am Sounds like they're on sale, then.
The "sale" has lasted an awfully long time.
It has for companies like Microsoft as well. That has recently turned out well. Similarly for Apple.

Long periods of poor performance tell us nothing about the future.
It appears as though Microsoft more than held its own against Total International, not just recently. (M* can track back to January 1997.)
Image
I notice that you take a different starting date form this graph than in your original graph.
The original graph contained the 4 stocks brought up in the linked thread; the starting date was the earliest M* date that compared all.
The other graph has different entities to compare, and I similarly found the earliest M* for those.
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by AlwaysLearningMore »

Da5id wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 1:20 pm What is your take home message then? I'm fine owning those 4 stocks. And the underperforming companies of US TSM just as much. That is part of the deal of being diversified and index investing. One doesn't know in advance what companies (or countries) will outperform.
Per the OP, to see if the 4 stocks held out by the poster in the linked thread would add to the returns of a US-only investor, since Total Int'l has not.
Out of curiosity I wanted to look at the point brought up about "all the great companies you're missing out on e.g. Nestle, Total SA, Novartis, AstraZeneca."
e.g., https://tinyurl.com/yzbdmw84

So I looked for a rough estimate as to how those companies have fared against US TSM.
The furthest back I could find on M* to compare all was January 6, 2003:
Image
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by Da5id »

AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 1:39 pm
Da5id wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 1:20 pm What is your take home message then? I'm fine owning those 4 stocks. And the underperforming companies of US TSM just as much. That is part of the deal of being diversified and index investing. One doesn't know in advance what companies (or countries) will outperform.
Per the OP, to see if the 4 stocks held out by the poster in the linked thread would add to the returns of a US-only investor, since Total Int'l has not.
Out of curiosity I wanted to look at the point brought up about "all the great companies you're missing out on e.g. Nestle, Total SA, Novartis, AstraZeneca."
But you have no take home other than "he picked 4 bad examples"? Why create a thread for that?
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by watchnerd »

Da5id wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 1:43 pm

But you have no take home other than "he picked 4 bad examples"? Why create a thread for that?
A "european stock" portfolio consisting of...

SAP 25%
VOD 25%
ABB 25%
ASML 25%

....blows the doors off US TSM for the last 20 years.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion5_2=100

What does that prove?

Nothing, really, other than how silly it is to compare any arbitrary grouping of 4 stocks to a total stock market index.
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by Robot Monster »

Hi everyone! Goodness gracious. A little disconcerting that a post of mine created August of last year has such staying power.

I choose those four companies simply because they were in Vanguard Wellington's portfolio holdings, and (as of 03/31/2021, at least) they continue to be. If it is such a no brainer to dump them based on their underperformance in recent years relative to the US Total Stock Market, then, Wellington must be super stupid.
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AlwaysLearningMore
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by AlwaysLearningMore »

watchnerd wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 2:02 pm
Da5id wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 1:43 pm

But you have no take home other than "he picked 4 bad examples"? Why create a thread for that?
A "european stock" portfolio consisting of...

SAP 25%
VOD 25%
ABB 25%
ASML 25%

....blows the doors off US TSM for the last 20 years.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion5_2=100

What does that prove?

Nothing, really, other than how silly it is to compare any arbitrary grouping of 4 stocks to a total stock market index.
Those 4 stocks were chosen by another poster as examples of "great stocks" a US-only investor would be missing. I wanted to know if holding those in addition to TSM would have added to returns over the maximum holding period I could find at M*. It didn't.

Feel to start your own thread with whatever comparisons you fancy.
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by Da5id »

AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 3:50 pm Those 4 stocks were chosen by another poster as examples of "great stocks" a US-only investor would be missing. I wanted to know if holding those in addition to TSM would have added to returns over the maximum holding period I could find at M*. It didn't.

Feel to start your own thread with whatever comparisons you fancy.
While one may start a thread, one can't really control what others post in it. Particularly if it is somewhat related (mods may otherwise remove as derail I guess).
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AlwaysLearningMore
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by AlwaysLearningMore »

Da5id wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 3:57 pm
AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 3:50 pm Those 4 stocks were chosen by another poster as examples of "great stocks" a US-only investor would be missing. I wanted to know if holding those in addition to TSM would have added to returns over the maximum holding period I could find at M*. It didn't.

Feel to start your own thread with whatever comparisons you fancy.
While one may start a thread, one can't really control what others post in it. Particularly if it is somewhat related (mods may otherwise remove as derail I guess).
Then I'm glad this thread got your attention :wink:
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by watchnerd »

AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 3:50 pm Feel to start your own thread with whatever comparisons you fancy.
There really wouldn't be any point in starting a new thread, as I already did a different comparison above.

It's a goofy methodology to begin with.
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by watchnerd »

Robot Monster wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 3:24 pm Hi everyone! Goodness gracious. A little disconcerting that a post of mine created August of last year has such staying power.

I choose those four companies simply because they were in Vanguard Wellington's portfolio holdings, and (as of 03/31/2021, at least) they continue to be. If it is such a no brainer to dump them based on their underperformance in recent years relative to the US Total Stock Market, then, Wellington must be super stupid.
Wellington holds 67 stocks.

If I'm doing my math right, using those 67 stocks, the set of possible 4 stock portfolios we could compare to TSM is 1072.

This thread could get really really long.....
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Re: "What about those great companies you're missing?"

Post by Da5id »

watchnerd wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 5:02 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 3:24 pm Hi everyone! Goodness gracious. A little disconcerting that a post of mine created August of last year has such staying power.

I choose those four companies simply because they were in Vanguard Wellington's portfolio holdings, and (as of 03/31/2021, at least) they continue to be. If it is such a no brainer to dump them based on their underperformance in recent years relative to the US Total Stock Market, then, Wellington must be super stupid.
Wellington holds 67 stocks.

If I'm doing my math right, using those 67 stocks, the set of possible 4 stock portfolios we could compare to TSM is 1072.

This thread could get really really long.....
67 choose 4 is 766,480. So lots of combinations :)
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