Watch out for inflation numbers - Redux

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Watch out for inflation numbers - Redux

Post by #Cruncher »

Seasonal's 4/13/2021 thread, Watch out for inflation numbers has been locked or else I would have posted this there. From his original post:
Reported inflation may appear to spike in the coming months, not because of any sharp rise in prices but because inflation is often reported as a year-over-year comparison and prices fell about a year ago. Even if prices are unchanged over the next few months, year-over-year inflation will increase because the year ago base will decrease.
The April 2021 CPI was released this morning showing a 4.2% year-over-year increase. As Seasonal said, much of this was due to comparison against a depressed April 2020 CPI. However, much of it also reflects recent month-to-month increases. The blue line in the following FRED chart shows the year-over-year change in the seasonally adjusted CPI [*] and the red line shows the month-to-month change. Note how the red line has risen over the past few months. (Click the graph to open an interactive version.)

Image

The following table shows this only since January 2020. Besides the month-to-month and year-over-year change, it also shows the change in over the past six months. Note how the CPI has increased 2.45% over the six months October 2020 to April 2021.

Code: Select all

                    ------ Change -------
           CPI-U    Month   6 mo    12 mo

Code: Select all

Jan 2019  252.441  (0.02%)                                            X|
Feb 2019  252.969   0.21%                                              |XXXXXXXX
Mar 2019  254.147   0.47%                                              |XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Apr 2019  255.326   0.46%                                              |XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
May 2019  255.371   0.02%                                              |X
Jun 2019  255.423   0.02%                                              |X

Jul 2019  255.925   0.20%                                              |XXXXXXXX
Aug 2019  256.118   0.08%                                              |XXX
Sep 2019  256.532   0.16%                                              |XXXXXX
Oct 2019  257.387   0.33%                                              |XXXXXXXXXXXXX
Nov 2019  257.989   0.23%                                              |XXXXXXXXX
Dec 2019  258.203   0.08%                                              |XXX

Jan 2020  258.687   0.19%   1.08%   2.47%                              |XXXXXXX
Feb 2020  258.824   0.05%   1.06%   2.31%                              |XX
Mar 2020  257.989  (0.32%)  0.57%   1.51%                 XXXXXXXXXXXXX|
Apr 2020  256.192  (0.70%) (0.46%)  0.34%  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX|
May 2020  255.942  (0.10%) (0.79%)  0.22%                          XXXX|
Jun 2020  257.282   0.52%  (0.36%)  0.73%                              |XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Jul 2020  258.604   0.51%  (0.03%)  1.05%                              |XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Aug 2020  259.511   0.35%   0.27%   1.32%                              |XXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Sep 2020  260.149   0.25%   0.84%   1.41%                              |XXXXXXXXXX
Oct 2020  260.462   0.12%   1.67%   1.19%                              |XXXXX
Nov 2020  260.927   0.18%   1.95%   1.14%                              |XXXXXXX
Dec 2020  261.560   0.24%   1.66%   1.30%                              |XXXXXXXXXX

Jan 2021  262.231   0.26%   1.40%   1.37%                              |XXXXXXXXXX
Feb 2021  263.161   0.35%   1.41%   1.68%                              |XXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Mar 2021  264.793   0.62%   1.79%   2.64%                              |XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Apr 2021  266.832   0.77%   2.45%   4.15%                              |XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
* Besides from FRED, the seasonally adjusted CPI-U can be gotten by choosing "All items in U.S. city average, all urban consumers, seasonally adjusted" from the BLS Data Finder.
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Re: Watch out for inflation numbers - Redux

Post by David Jay »

I tend to follow the month-over-month, which was .8% (interestingly it is the same, with and without seasonal adjustment) from March to April.
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Re: Watch out for inflation numbers - Redux

Post by willthrill81 »

I'm not trying to humble brag, but I've repeatedly said of late that I wouldn't be surprised at all if we see inflation of 4-5% for the next several years.

David Stein, host of the Money for the Rest of Us podcast, just today released an episode that examines whether we're going to experience inflation in the coming years resembling what existed in the 1970s. It's definitely worth listening to, like most of his episodes.
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Re: Watch out for inflation numbers - Redux

Post by grok87 »

My own view is that this higher inflation will persist for a bit (a year?) but will eventually just turn out to be a short term blip. I don't see the forces in the economy shaping up to support sustained high inflation. I think the deflationary forces are just too powerful: globalization, debt overhang, corporate consolidation (decreasing employees bargaining power), etc.

I say this as a big proponent of retirement liability matching using long term tips. There may be a return to prolonged 70s style high inflation at some point in the future. but this isn't it.

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Re: Watch out for inflation numbers - Redux

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Re: Watch out for inflation numbers - Redux

Post by LadyGeek »

The prior thread was locked due to contentious discussions of economic policy.

By member request (not the OP), this thread is now unlocked to continue the discussion. Please stay focused on the investing aspects.
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Re: Watch out for inflation numbers - Redux

Post by #Cruncher »

One effect of the recent high inflation is that individual TIPS and TIPS funds in a taxable account will be generating much higher taxable income this year than last. This is because the inflation indexing of principal for the first half of 2021 is already more than twice that for all of 2020. Here are the increases in the CPI-U values that are used to index TIPS principal.

Code: Select all

Ref CPI    CPI Mo    CPI-U    Incr
--------  --------  -------   ----
1/1/2020  Oct 2019  257.346
1/1/2021  Oct 2020  260.388  +1.18% - 2020 full year increase
7/1/2021  Apr 2021  267.054  +2.56% - 2021 half year increase [*]
Source: Reference CPI 2020 and 2021

* This 2.56% differs slightly from the 2.45% 6 month increase mentioned in the original post because it was based on the seasonally adjusted CPI, while TIPS are indexed to the not seasonally adjusted CPI.
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Re: Watch out for inflation numbers - Redux

Post by willthrill81 »

#Cruncher wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 8:48 pm One effect of the recent high inflation is that individual TIPS and TIPS funds in a taxable account will be generating much higher taxable income this year than last. This is because the inflation indexing of principal for the first half of 2021 is already more than twice that for all of 2020. Here are the increases in the CPI-U values that are used to index TIPS principal.

Code: Select all

Ref CPI    CPI Mo    CPI-U    Incr
--------  --------  -------   ----
1/1/2020  Oct 2019  257.346
1/1/2021  Oct 2020  260.388  +1.18% - 2020 full year increase
7/1/2021  Apr 2021  267.054  +2.56% - 2021 half year increase [*]
Source: Reference CPI 2020 and 2021

* This 2.56% differs slightly from the 2.45% 6 month increase mentioned in the original post because it was based on the seasonally adjusted CPI, while TIPS are indexed to the not seasonally adjusted CPI.
This is why, if at all possible, I would think that TIPS should be held in a tax-advantaged account. Otherwise, if the unexpected inflation that the TIPS are insuring against materialized, taxflation is still going to give you an unpleasant kick.
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Re: Watch out for inflation numbers - Redux

Post by nisiprius »

willthrill81 wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 10:31 pmOtherwise, if the unexpected inflation that the TIPS are insuring against materialized, taxflation is still going to give you an unpleasant kick.
The same thing is true of all investments, but is rarely mentioned except when TIPS are being discussed. US taxes are assessed on increases in dollar numbers, not on increases in real value. Sad, but true, and true for all investments.

Jeremy Siegel once created a long-term chart that includes the effect of taxation, but the one widely chosen for reproduction doesn't. In fact the one with taxes is hard to find, it doesn't seem to be in the fifth edition of Stocks for the Long Run, and the copy I once posted in this forum was hosted on a defunct image hosting service...

(A legitimate knock on TIPS is that--like zero coupon bonds--you are not allowed to wait until maturity to pay the taxes, but get annual 1040-OID statements and must pay as you go even though you aren't receiving actual money in that year.)
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Re: Watch out for inflation numbers - Redux

Post by dodecahedron »

willthrill81 wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 10:31 pm
#Cruncher wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 8:48 pm One effect of the recent high inflation is that individual TIPS and TIPS funds in a taxable account will be generating much higher taxable income this year than last. This is because the inflation indexing of principal for the first half of 2021 is already more than twice that for all of 2020. Here are the increases in the CPI-U values that are used to index TIPS principal.

Code: Select all

Ref CPI    CPI Mo    CPI-U    Incr
--------  --------  -------   ----
1/1/2020  Oct 2019  257.346
1/1/2021  Oct 2020  260.388  +1.18% - 2020 full year increase
7/1/2021  Apr 2021  267.054  +2.56% - 2021 half year increase [*]
Source: Reference CPI 2020 and 2021

* This 2.56% differs slightly from the 2.45% 6 month increase mentioned in the original post because it was based on the seasonally adjusted CPI, while TIPS are indexed to the not seasonally adjusted CPI.
This is why, if at all possible, I would think that TIPS should be held in a tax-advantaged account. Otherwise, if the unexpected inflation that the TIPS are insuring against materialized, taxflation is still going to give you an unpleasant kick.
Two potentially mitigating factors that could argue for holding at least some TIPS in taxable.

1) If you live in a high income tax state, the interest income on TIPS is excluded from state taxation.

2) TIPS are generally acknowledged to be relatively volatile assets compared to other types of fixed income. Holding TIPS in taxable may allow for opportunistic tax-loss-harvesting and/or tax-gain-harvesting.

Personally, my current portfolio is 50% taxable, 30% Roth, 20% tax-deferred, and my asset allocation is 30/70 equity/fixed income, so I am effectively forced to hold at least some of my fixed income in taxable.

Tax-deferred is all in TIAA Trad SRA (liquid with 3% minimum) which I don't care to change unless and until if and when nominal interest rates on other nominal fixed income recover to something like what could be considered normal by historical standards, so my current choices for where to hold TIPS are in Roth or taxable.

I bought a hefty chunk of Schwabs TIPS fund in my Roth back in Dec 2018 (when real rates on TIPS were at a 10-year historical high) and they have appreciated a lot due to drop in real rates to significant negative territory.

I have a substantial 5-year CD in taxable maturing this month. I am considering where to re-invest proceeds. Given pitiful current CD rates (and their lack of protection against inflation and the fact that I live in NY with significant state income tax rates), I am considering investing some/all of CD proceeds in Vanguard's TIPS fund in my taxable account. (And, yes, I have already maxed out my I bond purchases for 2021.)
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Re: Watch out for inflation numbers - Redux

Post by willthrill81 »

nisiprius wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 8:04 am
willthrill81 wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 10:31 pmOtherwise, if the unexpected inflation that the TIPS are insuring against materialized, taxflation is still going to give you an unpleasant kick.
The same thing is true of all investments, but is rarely mentioned except when TIPS are being discussed. US taxes are assessed on increases in dollar numbers, not on increases in real value. Sad, but true, and true for all investments.
Quite true. I suspect that taxflation normally only comes up with TIPS and I bonds because investors seem to typically own them primarily to protect against unexpected inflation, whereas stock investors are normally trying to beat inflation, inflation spiking wouldn't cause taxflation for old nominal bonds (but would lead to a loss of buying power, an issue that most seem to be well aware of). But many investors don't consider the taxflation issue if the inflation they bought the TIPS in the first place materializes.
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Re: Watch out for inflation numbers - Redux

Post by #Cruncher »

willthrill81 wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 10:31 pmThis is why, if at all possible, I would think that TIPS should be held in a tax-advantaged account. Otherwise, if the unexpected inflation that the TIPS are insuring against materialized, taxflation is still going to give you an unpleasant kick.
True -- subject to the mitigating factors mentioned by dodecahedron in this post. The following table shows the after tax return of a TIPS with a -0.90% yield held in a taxable account for four tax rates and four inflation rates. If the TIPS were held in a traditional or Roth IRA, the after tax return would be the same as the -0.90% pretax yield regardless of inflation. (See this 2015 post.) But if held in a taxable account, the after tax yield varies depending on inflation. For example with 4% annual inflation, it would be -2.0% for someone in the 37% tax bracket.

Code: Select all

Row               Col A     Col B    Col C    Col D    Col E
  1               Yield    (0.90%)
  2  Inflation indexed?      TRUE
  3           Inflation    0.000%   0.908%   2.523%   4.000% 
  4       Nominal yield   (0.900%)  0.000%   1.600%   3.064% 
               Tax Rate           After Tax Real Yield
               --------     ---------------------------------
  5                0.0%     (0.9%)   (0.9%)   (0.9%)   (0.9%)
  6               12.0%     (0.8%)   (0.9%)   (1.1%)   (1.3%)
  7               24.0%     (0.7%)   (0.9%)   (1.3%)   (1.6%)
  8               37.0%     (0.6%)   (0.9%)   (1.5%)   (2.0%)
nisiprius wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 8:04 amThe same thing is true of all investments, but is rarely mentioned except when TIPS are being discussed. US taxes are assessed on increases in dollar numbers, not on increases in real value. Sad, but true, and true for all investments.
Correct. The following modification of the table shows that if inflation comes in at the breakeven rate (BEI, 2.523% in the example), the after tax return of a nominal Treasury bond will equal that of the TIPS. It also shows that like the case for pretax return, the after tax return for TIPS will be worse if inflation runs less than the BEI, and better if it runs more than the BEI.

Code: Select all

Row               Col A     Col B    Col C    Col D    Col E
  1               Yield     1.60% 
  2  Inflation indexed?     FALSE
  3           Inflation    0.000%   0.908%   2.523%   4.000% 
  4       Nominal yield    1.600%   1.600%   1.600%   1.600% 
               Tax Rate           After Tax Real Yield
               --------     ---------------------------------
  5                0.0%      1.6%     0.7%    (0.9%)   (2.3%)
  6               12.0%      1.4%     0.5%    (1.1%)   (2.5%)
  7               24.0%      1.2%     0.3%    (1.3%)   (2.7%)
  8               37.0%      1.0%     0.1%    (1.5%)   (2.9%)
nisiprius in same post wrote:(A legitimate knock on TIPS is that--like zero coupon bonds--you are not allowed to wait until maturity to pay the taxes, but get annual [1099]-OID statements and must pay as you go even though you aren't receiving actual money in that year.)
With the same tax rate, the after tax yield of a zero-coupon bond and a coupon bond having the same pretax yield to maturity (YTM) will be the same. As shown on the bottom row below, with a 25% tax rate, the after tax yield will be 1.50% (calculated with the Excel IRR function) for a zero-coupon bond and a 2% coupon bond both having a 2.0% YTM.

Code: Select all

Row       Col A       Col B    Col C       Col D       Col E
  1  Investment      10,000
  2        Term          10
  3       Yield       2.00%
  4    Tax rate      25.00%
                  ------ Zero Coupon Bond ------   Coup Bond
           Year    Grows To     OID    Cash Flow   Cash Flow

Code: Select all

  5           0   10,000.00           (10,000.00) (10,000.00)
  6           1   10,200.00   200.00      (50.00)     150.00 
  7           2   10,404.00   204.00      (51.00)     150.00 
  8           3   10,612.08   208.08      (52.02)     150.00 
  9           4   10,824.32   212.24      (53.06)     150.00 
 10           5   11,040.81   216.49      (54.12)     150.00 
 11           6   11,261.62   220.82      (55.20)     150.00 
 12           7   11,486.86   225.23      (56.31)     150.00 
 13           8   11,716.59   229.74      (57.43)     150.00 
 14           9   11,950.93   234.33      (58.58)     150.00 
 15          10   12,189.94   239.02   12,130.19   10,150.00 
 16         IRR                            1.50%       1.50%
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Re: Watch out for inflation numbers - Redux

Post by grok87 »

#Cruncher wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 9:30 am
nisiprius in same post wrote:(A legitimate knock on TIPS is that--like zero coupon bonds--you are not allowed to wait until maturity to pay the taxes, but get annual [1099]-OID statements and must pay as you go even though you aren't receiving actual money in that year.)
With the same tax rate, the after tax yield of a zero-coupon bond and a coupon bond having the same pretax yield to maturity (YTM) will be the same. As shown on the bottom row below, with a 25% tax rate, the after tax yield will be 1.50% (calculated with the Excel IRR function) for a zero-coupon bond and a 2% coupon bond both having a 2.0% YTM.

Code: Select all

Row       Col A       Col B    Col C       Col D       Col E
  1  Investment      10,000
  2        Term          10
  3       Yield       2.00%
  4    Tax rate      25.00%
                  ------ Zero Coupon Bond ------   Coup Bond
           Year    Grows To     OID    Cash Flow   Cash Flow

Code: Select all

  5           0   10,000.00           (10,000.00) (10,000.00)
  6           1   10,200.00   200.00      (50.00)     150.00 
  7           2   10,404.00   204.00      (51.00)     150.00 
  8           3   10,612.08   208.08      (52.02)     150.00 
  9           4   10,824.32   212.24      (53.06)     150.00 
 10           5   11,040.81   216.49      (54.12)     150.00 
 11           6   11,261.62   220.82      (55.20)     150.00 
 12           7   11,486.86   225.23      (56.31)     150.00 
 13           8   11,716.59   229.74      (57.43)     150.00 
 14           9   11,950.93   234.33      (58.58)     150.00 
 15          10   12,189.94   239.02   12,130.19   10,150.00 
 16         IRR                            1.50%       1.50%
agree with tables.

but there is a subtler point. The zero coupon bond will have higher duration (positive cash flow is in year 15) whereas for the coupon bond it is less than year 15. normally with an upwardly sloping yield curve the yield demanded by the market should be higher for the zc
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Re: Watch out for inflation numbers - Redux

Post by muffins14 »

I don't see any reason to change my investments here. Increases in short-term inflation were expected due to supply shortages and pent-up demand, and we could very well expect inflation to fall from it's current monthly increases to lower levels

No changes on my side, keeping my slightly-leveraged 90% stock, 10% extended-duration treasuries
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Re: Watch out for inflation numbers - Redux

Post by Godot »

dodecahedron wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 8:55 am
willthrill81 wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 10:31 pm
#Cruncher wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 8:48 pm One effect of the recent high inflation is that individual TIPS and TIPS funds in a taxable account will be generating much higher taxable income this year than last. This is because the inflation indexing of principal for the first half of 2021 is already more than twice that for all of 2020. Here are the increases in the CPI-U values that are used to index TIPS principal.

Code: Select all

Ref CPI    CPI Mo    CPI-U    Incr
--------  --------  -------   ----
1/1/2020  Oct 2019  257.346
1/1/2021  Oct 2020  260.388  +1.18% - 2020 full year increase
7/1/2021  Apr 2021  267.054  +2.56% - 2021 half year increase [*]
Source: Reference CPI 2020 and 2021

* This 2.56% differs slightly from the 2.45% 6 month increase mentioned in the original post because it was based on the seasonally adjusted CPI, while TIPS are indexed to the not seasonally adjusted CPI.
This is why, if at all possible, I would think that TIPS should be held in a tax-advantaged account. Otherwise, if the unexpected inflation that the TIPS are insuring against materialized, taxflation is still going to give you an unpleasant kick.
Two potentially mitigating factors that could argue for holding at least some TIPS in taxable.

1) If you live in a high income tax state, the interest income on TIPS is excluded from state taxation.

2) TIPS are generally acknowledged to be relatively volatile assets compared to other types of fixed income. Holding TIPS in taxable may allow for opportunistic tax-loss-harvesting and/or tax-gain-harvesting.

Personally, my current portfolio is 50% taxable, 30% Roth, 20% tax-deferred, and my asset allocation is 30/70 equity/fixed income, so I am effectively forced to hold at least some of my fixed income in taxable.

Tax-deferred is all in TIAA Trad SRA (liquid with 3% minimum) which I don't care to change unless and until if and when nominal interest rates on other nominal fixed income recover to something like what could be considered normal by historical standards, so my current choices for where to hold TIPS are in Roth or taxable.

I bought a hefty chunk of Schwabs TIPS fund in my Roth back in Dec 2018 (when real rates on TIPS were at a 10-year historical high) and they have appreciated a lot due to drop in real rates to significant negative territory.

I have a substantial 5-year CD in taxable maturing this month. I am considering where to re-invest proceeds. Given pitiful current CD rates (and their lack of protection against inflation and the fact that I live in NY with significant state income tax rates), I am considering investing some/all of CD proceeds in Vanguard's TIPS fund in my taxable account. (And, yes, I have already maxed out my I bond purchases for 2021.)
Dodecahedron: Thanks for these tips on TIPS in taxable. I live in a high income tax state (OR) and am also considering buying a large amount of a TIPS fund (iShares) in taxable soon.
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Re: Watch out for inflation numbers - Redux

Post by LadyGeek »

I removed several off-topic posts. As a reminder, see: General Etiquette
At all times we must conduct ourselves in a respectful manner to other posters.
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