The April 2021 CPI was released this morning showing a 4.2% year-over-year increase. As Seasonal said, much of this was due to comparison against a depressed April 2020 CPI. However, much of it also reflects recent month-to-month increases. The blue line in the following FRED chart shows the year-over-year change in the seasonally adjusted CPI [*] and the red line shows the month-to-month change. Note how the red line has risen over the past few months. (Click the graph to open an interactive version.)Reported inflation may appear to spike in the coming months, not because of any sharp rise in prices but because inflation is often reported as a year-over-year comparison and prices fell about a year ago. Even if prices are unchanged over the next few months, year-over-year inflation will increase because the year ago base will decrease.
The following table shows this only since January 2020. Besides the month-to-month and year-over-year change, it also shows the change in over the past six months. Note how the CPI has increased 2.45% over the six months October 2020 to April 2021.
Code: Select all
------ Change -------
CPI-U Month 6 mo 12 mo
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Jan 2019 252.441 (0.02%) X|
Feb 2019 252.969 0.21% |XXXXXXXX
Mar 2019 254.147 0.47% |XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Apr 2019 255.326 0.46% |XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
May 2019 255.371 0.02% |X
Jun 2019 255.423 0.02% |X
Jul 2019 255.925 0.20% |XXXXXXXX
Aug 2019 256.118 0.08% |XXX
Sep 2019 256.532 0.16% |XXXXXX
Oct 2019 257.387 0.33% |XXXXXXXXXXXXX
Nov 2019 257.989 0.23% |XXXXXXXXX
Dec 2019 258.203 0.08% |XXX
Jan 2020 258.687 0.19% 1.08% 2.47% |XXXXXXX
Feb 2020 258.824 0.05% 1.06% 2.31% |XX
Mar 2020 257.989 (0.32%) 0.57% 1.51% XXXXXXXXXXXXX|
Apr 2020 256.192 (0.70%) (0.46%) 0.34% XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX|
May 2020 255.942 (0.10%) (0.79%) 0.22% XXXX|
Jun 2020 257.282 0.52% (0.36%) 0.73% |XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Jul 2020 258.604 0.51% (0.03%) 1.05% |XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Aug 2020 259.511 0.35% 0.27% 1.32% |XXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Sep 2020 260.149 0.25% 0.84% 1.41% |XXXXXXXXXX
Oct 2020 260.462 0.12% 1.67% 1.19% |XXXXX
Nov 2020 260.927 0.18% 1.95% 1.14% |XXXXXXX
Dec 2020 261.560 0.24% 1.66% 1.30% |XXXXXXXXXX
Jan 2021 262.231 0.26% 1.40% 1.37% |XXXXXXXXXX
Feb 2021 263.161 0.35% 1.41% 1.68% |XXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Mar 2021 264.793 0.62% 1.79% 2.64% |XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Apr 2021 266.832 0.77% 2.45% 4.15% |XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX