Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
I ran across this interesting interview with well-known economist and professor Nouriel Roubini, who has famously predicted the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009. While I don't fully agree with his opinion on crypto [1], I found this interview on other topics discussed and overall to be balanced and nice. What I especially liked is that he has discussed fairly complex economic aspects with minimal to no use of complex financial terms and the logic of his arguments was quite clear and straightforward.
Part 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDq3hMoZ8XE
Part 2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yL0QcyQwdBo
Questions
1. What do you think about Prof. Roubini's economic outlook expressed in this interview? Agree? Disagree? Why?
2. If you largely agree with his outlook, how, if any, does /will it influence your investment strategy across short-, mid-, and long-term horizons?
[1] E.g., he omitted various positive aspects and improvements in crypto space, such as increasing Bitcoin network's transaction throughput using Lightning Network and other Layer 2 solutions, ecological effect of migration of Ethereum from PoW to PoS, emerging DeFi ecosystem, including assets and platforms that enable IRR / income generation.
Part 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDq3hMoZ8XE
Part 2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yL0QcyQwdBo
Questions
1. What do you think about Prof. Roubini's economic outlook expressed in this interview? Agree? Disagree? Why?
2. If you largely agree with his outlook, how, if any, does /will it influence your investment strategy across short-, mid-, and long-term horizons?
[1] E.g., he omitted various positive aspects and improvements in crypto space, such as increasing Bitcoin network's transaction throughput using Lightning Network and other Layer 2 solutions, ecological effect of migration of Ethereum from PoW to PoS, emerging DeFi ecosystem, including assets and platforms that enable IRR / income generation.
Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
I didn't listen to the videos, yet. I have read and listened to him post 2009. He has been predicting an economic collapse for about a decade. Perhaps eventually if we wait long enough he will be correct.
I've often agreed with many of his assessments and opinions. The problem is its always easy to see danger ahead.
Edit: I see its Kitco - which pretty much guarantees it's advancing a gold narrative.
I've often agreed with many of his assessments and opinions. The problem is its always easy to see danger ahead.
Edit: I see its Kitco - which pretty much guarantees it's advancing a gold narrative.
Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
Bumping up for better visibility (original post was too late last night). Still, a bit surprised by lack of diverse feedback ...
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Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
On March 9th, 2009 he predicted that
And I made a decent prediction myself:
And this is what actually happened:The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is likely to drop to 600 or lower this year
And I made a decent prediction myself:
That's just the absolutely perfect, Platonic ideal of a prediction that was wrong. Logically, that should cancel out his "prediction" of the crisis, but I expect it won't; he will be "the New York University professor who predicted the financial crisis" forever.
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Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
Dr. Doom was all the rage after the financial crisis. Elaine Gazarelli was the rage after 87. I can't remember the last time an economist picked something correctly twice in a row.
Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
1. Why would one - and narrow - prediction cancel out another, earlier and much more comprehensive, one? It doesn't make sense to me. Not to mention that, as we all know, past performance is not a guarantee of future results. In this context, meaning that even if we would assume that the 2009 prediction is of the same magnitude as the pre-crisis one (which is certainly not the case), it would not warrant a dismissal of any current predictions or analyses.nisiprius wrote: ↑Tue May 11, 2021 8:07 pm On March 9th, 2009 he predicted thatAnd this is what actually happened:The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is likely to drop to 600 or lower this year
And I made a decent prediction myself:That's just the absolutely perfect, Platonic ideal of a prediction that was wrong. Logically, that should cancel out his "prediction" of the crisis, but I expect it won't; he will be "the New York University professor who predicted the financial crisis" forever.
2. Despite me mentioning Prof. Roubini's most famous prediction (for those who might not be familiar with this fact), the goals of my post were a) to request feedback specifically on the above-mentioned interview - IMO full of logical arguments about current economic situation and potential future trends - and b) to assess potential impacts, if any, on people's investment strategies. So far, I have not seen any comments addressing these aspects.
Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
Why should it matter? I'm seeking feedback on arguments / analysis presented in this specific interview. In this context, everything else is irrelevant.Californiastate wrote: ↑Tue May 11, 2021 9:32 pm Dr. Doom was all the rage after the financial crisis. Elaine Gazarelli was the rage after 87. I can't remember the last time an economist picked something correctly twice in a row.
Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
Nouriel's been wrong so long that he may be right this time! Kinda reversion to the mean lol.
Buy Copper, Gold and Real Estate? Tough to do as a Boglehead...
Buy Copper, Gold and Real Estate? Tough to do as a Boglehead...
Better lucky than smart.
Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
The power of making lots of predictions.
I own the next hot stock- VTSAX
Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
Regular posters often get tired of continually trying to reply to Famous People who are perennially wrong. It is a kissing cousin to sealioning, a kind of internet trolling:
In this case it isn't bad-faith, either by you or by Roubini. But the incessant invitations to engage in debate with people who have been wrong longer than many have been investing gets tiresome. Instead of dismissing their previous wrong predictions, as you do, we should use that information to update our priors about the actual validity of their logical-sounding reasoning.a type of trolling or harassment that consists of pursuing people with persistent requests for evidence or repeated questions, while maintaining a pretense of civility and sincerity. It may take the form of "incessant, bad-faith invitations to engage in debate".
Consider an alternate scenario:
Someone posts constant videos about flat-earth. Their arguments all sound logical. Never mind that their past predictions have all been wrong. After replying to dozens of similar threads, regular posters lose enthusiasm for watching yet another 45 minute video on flat-earth.
Anyway, in the interest of not being entirely dismissive, I listened to part of the interview. The gist is:
The Fed claims inflation will be transitory and can be controlled.
Roubini says it could be more persistent over time due to stimulus and credit easing. He actually says that we might face stagflation.
He's making exactly the same kind of arguments that Larry Summers is currently making and they both are wrong. In the words of one wonk:
So Roubini is essentially assuming a novel model of how the economy works but isn't willing to "show his work" and open it up to criticism from academics. He just is saying "Oooh, big numbers! New things!"And that model [ed: the standard economic model that most economists subscribe to] seems to say that the Fed can indeed tap on the brakes if needed. Indeed, the Fed has done that in the past: in the 80s and again in the 90s it acted to rein in booms without causing recessions…. Claims that we can’t rely on the Fed to rein in inflation if the stimulus turns out to be too big have to rest on some departure from the workhorse model most sensible people use to think about macroeconomic policy…. Even if you’re uncomfortable with President Biden’s fiscal policies, you should be very cautious about making arguments against them that rely on novel propositions about why inflation can’t be contained. Conventional analysis says what Janet Yellen said: If the stimulus proves bigger than needed, the Fed can keep things under control. If you’re asserting otherwise, think hard about why you’re saying that
Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
He expects persistently higher inflation.
I could just as well imagine inflation come and then go again without the fed ever raising rates. Europe and Japan are stuck at zero rates. Why shouldnt the US follow? Declining inflation and declining interest rates are a 40 year long trend. Why should a transient supply shock change that suddenly? QE doesnt seem to cause CPI inflation. Maybe fiscal stimulus can. But how much more can people in rich countries consume? Even if you send them checks, they wont eat more, buy a third car or the twentieth pair of sneakers (well, some might). They buy dogecoin. Some societies are just satiated. And in normal times there definitely is no shortage of stuff to buy either. If anything there is too much stuff. Lots of food ends up in the trash. Last years fashion ends up in the trash. The only things that will keep getting inlfated are the ones that are rare enough so not everybody can have them. But is the problem of luxuries not being affordable for everyone a problem the Fed needs to tackle by raising rates and thereby risking to purge the economy of unprofitable companies that keep people employed and therfore contribute to political stability?
I say buy as much stocks and land as you can as long as it is still somehow affordable.
Thanks for reading. I don't know what I am talking about.
I could just as well imagine inflation come and then go again without the fed ever raising rates. Europe and Japan are stuck at zero rates. Why shouldnt the US follow? Declining inflation and declining interest rates are a 40 year long trend. Why should a transient supply shock change that suddenly? QE doesnt seem to cause CPI inflation. Maybe fiscal stimulus can. But how much more can people in rich countries consume? Even if you send them checks, they wont eat more, buy a third car or the twentieth pair of sneakers (well, some might). They buy dogecoin. Some societies are just satiated. And in normal times there definitely is no shortage of stuff to buy either. If anything there is too much stuff. Lots of food ends up in the trash. Last years fashion ends up in the trash. The only things that will keep getting inlfated are the ones that are rare enough so not everybody can have them. But is the problem of luxuries not being affordable for everyone a problem the Fed needs to tackle by raising rates and thereby risking to purge the economy of unprofitable companies that keep people employed and therfore contribute to political stability?
I say buy as much stocks and land as you can as long as it is still somehow affordable.
Thanks for reading. I don't know what I am talking about.
Last edited by TheoLeo on Tue May 11, 2021 11:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
Also, ever heard of "don't fight the Fed"? I think it still applies.
Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
I watched both videos. I listened to Roubini's assertions and his reasoning. I didn't find anything objectionable.
In my understanding, he didn't make specific forecasts, just outlined what he sees as specific risks in the situation going forward. All of those risks (for example, the potential for stagflation) are things that were already accounted for in my existing investment strategy. Therefore, I have no need to change my strategy based on this interview.2. If you largely agree with his outlook, how, if any, does /will it influence your investment strategy across short-, mid-, and long-term horizons?
Since some people seem to have a one-sided impression of Roubini, I'll just add two things, (a) Roubini is the person who got me to understand, well in advance, that there was something wrong in the housing market that could affect the larger US economy and US financial markets in 2008, and (b) Roubini is the person who got me to stop worrying about the USD and chasing foreign currency funds, when he projected that the EUR would settle into a range of about 1.1 to 1.3 USD (when it was trading at around 1.45, and a lot of talking heads were saying the USD was toast), and that projection turned out to be accurate, for many years, even up until right now; in other words, Roubini isn't always a gloomster, as his positivity on the USD at that time is what got me to stop being a USD gloomster.
It's also interesting that people keep saying that Roubini is wrong for being a gloomster while we have a Fed that is treating the US economy as a desperately sick patient in the ICU (via ZIRP and massive QE policies). It seems to me that the gloomsters should be given credit for having been proven right.
Rather than raising a Roubini bash-fest, it'd be refreshing if more people would answer the questions you actually asked.
Thanks for asking.
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Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
I won't be watching the videos, sorry.. I wanted to add that prognosticators like Roubini have cost me good returns over many investing years.
My only regret is I wish I had discovered bogleheads earlier, instead of running scared every time someone who was right one time made a prediction.
It is best to completely ignore anything these pundit say since nobody knows nothing. At best they save you nothing, since market timing is a fools errand and at worst they cost you years of financial growth.
Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
Thank you very much to all those who have shared their thoughts so far. The discussion has just started to resemble what I was hoping for (with the best comment thus far IMO made by HanSolo - much appreciated!). So please keep your feedback - ideally, as concrete answers to my questions - coming ...
Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
Economists know more about the economy than they do about future market movements. The "fool's errand" is to depend on them for the latter rather than the former.learntoinvest123 wrote: ↑Tue May 11, 2021 11:23 pm It is best to completely ignore anything these pundit say since nobody knows nothing. At best they save you nothing, since market timing is a fools errand and at worst they cost you years of financial growth.
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Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
No problem. Thank you for sharing your thoughts. Having said that, as you can see from HanSolo's first comment above, your unfortunate experience is not necessarily the most common one. In the sense that, sometimes (often?), it is beneficial to hear some critical or otherwise alternative opinions. After all, even the Bogleheads philosophy is based on certain assumptions. And, as with anything else, nobody knows when and for how long they will hold true ...learntoinvest123 wrote: ↑Tue May 11, 2021 11:23 pmI won't be watching the videos, sorry.. I wanted to add that prognosticators like Roubini have cost me good returns over many investing years.
My only regret is I wish I had discovered bogleheads earlier, instead of running scared every time someone who was right one time made a prediction.
It is best to completely ignore anything these pundit say since nobody knows nothing. At best they save you nothing, since market timing is a fools errand and at worst they cost you years of financial growth.
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Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
So, I took the time to actually watch the videos with some fast forwarding. My thoughts
I learned nothing new. A supposed economics genius spouts some of the same things being repeated ad-nauseum for last 20 years.
For those who want to save 50 minutes of your time here are the highlights (with my comments in brackets)
a) US spends beyond its means. Europe is the same, but at least they make enough to cover the spending (He forgets Greece crisis, may be next time..)
b) Fed will lose control and not be able to tame inflation. We will have stagflation. Fed can't raise rates since there is too much debt. If it raises rates then markets crash. Game over!! (Meanwhile the Fed is trying to get durable 2.5% inflation, published policy.. yet bond markets just sit there.BTW, Mr Roubini..Bond markets control interest rates not the Fed. Just ask former Bond king Bill Gross)
c) Dollar will lose reserve status and Gold or Chinese currency will replace it. Gold short term, Chinese currency over many decades. (last check Chinese markets, which I hold are lagging US markets.. when will the professor be right?? Isn't it about time?)
d) US markets are overvalued and headed for a crash (maybe?? he won't commit here since he has been burned for a decade. He throws out the record CAPE number.. who knows this time CAPE may work)
e) Crypto is trash (Well this is new. But is it really?)
f) Oh, BTW he is launching a Boom-bust service.(What??)
What exactly is new here? Is this all it takes to be an economics professor?
I learned nothing new. A supposed economics genius spouts some of the same things being repeated ad-nauseum for last 20 years.
For those who want to save 50 minutes of your time here are the highlights (with my comments in brackets)
a) US spends beyond its means. Europe is the same, but at least they make enough to cover the spending (He forgets Greece crisis, may be next time..)
b) Fed will lose control and not be able to tame inflation. We will have stagflation. Fed can't raise rates since there is too much debt. If it raises rates then markets crash. Game over!! (Meanwhile the Fed is trying to get durable 2.5% inflation, published policy.. yet bond markets just sit there.BTW, Mr Roubini..Bond markets control interest rates not the Fed. Just ask former Bond king Bill Gross)
c) Dollar will lose reserve status and Gold or Chinese currency will replace it. Gold short term, Chinese currency over many decades. (last check Chinese markets, which I hold are lagging US markets.. when will the professor be right?? Isn't it about time?)
d) US markets are overvalued and headed for a crash (maybe?? he won't commit here since he has been burned for a decade. He throws out the record CAPE number.. who knows this time CAPE may work)
e) Crypto is trash (Well this is new. But is it really?)
f) Oh, BTW he is launching a Boom-bust service.(What??)
What exactly is new here? Is this all it takes to be an economics professor?
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Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
Interesting watch. Thanks OP.
High school econ was fascinating to me, so it was nice to reminisce(stagflation etc).
So, from the Prof, we can expect:
High inflation
Weaker dollar
Less separation between the Fed and the Govt
Crash in at least the crypto bubble, given their risks
Remembering the stock market is NOT the economy, I can see some reality with all the above points. It was good watching the Prof explain some of the key factors in the current economy. However, I think even he is smart enough not to give absolute commitments.
What could be actionable? Perhaps invest in intermediate treasuries (inflation hedge). Any thoughts?
I get he is a perma-bear, but at market highs I'd pay more attention to him than someone professing the market will go up this year and next! Kinda like hedging your bets
High school econ was fascinating to me, so it was nice to reminisce(stagflation etc).
So, from the Prof, we can expect:
High inflation
Weaker dollar
Less separation between the Fed and the Govt
Crash in at least the crypto bubble, given their risks
Remembering the stock market is NOT the economy, I can see some reality with all the above points. It was good watching the Prof explain some of the key factors in the current economy. However, I think even he is smart enough not to give absolute commitments.
What could be actionable? Perhaps invest in intermediate treasuries (inflation hedge). Any thoughts?
I get he is a perma-bear, but at market highs I'd pay more attention to him than someone professing the market will go up this year and next! Kinda like hedging your bets
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Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
In my understanding, Bogleheads philosophy keeps assumptions to a minimum. We could have another roaring 20s, or we could have some disasters like ones we've gone through before, and Bogleheads-type portfolios are intended to get you through any of those scenarios with the likelihood of capital preservation and growth (although I'm aware that there are some competing ideas, e.g., Permanent Portfolio).
While Roubini did touch on the topics you listed, I'm not sure he made the assertions that you're claiming that he made.learntoinvest123 wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 12:08 am For those who want to save 50 minutes of your time here are the highlights (with my comments in brackets)
At least he takes a position. It would be interesting to know if you agreed or disagreed with his assertions, and why (e.g., does the US spend beyond it's means, will the Fed lose control of inflation, etc.).What exactly is new here? Is this all it takes to be an economics professor?
Some of his positions are probably at odds with what Fed economists have to say (the latter being on your payroll, if you're a US taxpayer). Roubini's comments are free, but to the extent that they diverge from the Fed, it raises the issue of whether we're getting our money's worth from Fed officials.
Exactly. As I said earlier, I look to economists for their views on the economy, not on future market movements. Roubini is just one economist with his own views. If you don't like him, then which economist do you like? Krugman?
Strategic Macro Senior (top 1%, 2019 Bogleheads Contest)
Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
The economists who work at the Federal Reserve. Over the past decade they have repeatedly proven to be better than Roubini.
Last year he predicted 2021 would have an "L-shaped Greater Depresson". Fed economists said otherwise. They were correct and he was wrong.
In 2015 he thought hyperinflation was going to result from Fed policies. Fed economists said otherwise. They were correct and he was wrong.
So I guess I trust the economists at the Fed who have repeatedly been correct over the guy who has been repeatedly wrong.
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Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
It matters because the mediocre track record of these types of arguments and analyses is indicative of the likelihood of success in applying the arguments in the videos to the present situation. I don't follow Nouriel Roubini. If you always predict severe economic deterioration, you will appear to be right when it happens.fingoals wrote: ↑Tue May 11, 2021 10:12 pmWhy should it matter? I'm seeking feedback on arguments / analysis presented in this specific interview. In this context, everything else is irrelevant.Californiastate wrote: ↑Tue May 11, 2021 9:32 pm Dr. Doom was all the rage after the financial crisis. Elaine Gazarelli was the rage after 87. I can't remember the last time an economist picked something correctly twice in a row.
Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
Are the Fed economists saying one thing and doing another? As I mentioned above, they're the ones treating the US economy as if it's a desperately sick patient in the ICU (via ZIRP and massive QE policies).
I'm not seeing where he predicted that in the video. What's the timestamp of where he said it?Northern Flicker wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 1:58 am I don't follow Nouriel Roubini. If you always predict severe economic deterioration, you will appear to be right when it happens.
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Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
He appears to be a goldbug...nobody knows nothin
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Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
He has predicted 19 of the last 3 bear markets.fingoals wrote: ↑Tue May 11, 2021 10:12 pmWhy should it matter? I'm seeking feedback on arguments / analysis presented in this specific interview. In this context, everything else is irrelevant.Californiastate wrote: ↑Tue May 11, 2021 9:32 pm Dr. Doom was all the rage after the financial crisis. Elaine Gazarelli was the rage after 87. I can't remember the last time an economist picked something correctly twice in a row.
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Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
Well said Hans. Wish macro and micro econ was taught to every kid.HanSolo wrote: ↑Tue May 11, 2021 11:26 pmEconomists know more about the economy than they do about future market movements. The "fool's errand" is to depend on them for the latter rather than the former.learntoinvest123 wrote: ↑Tue May 11, 2021 11:23 pm It is best to completely ignore anything these pundit say since nobody knows nothing. At best they save you nothing, since market timing is a fools errand and at worst they cost you years of financial growth.
“At some point you are trading time you will never get back for money you will never spend.“ |
“How do you want to spend the best remaining year of your life?“
Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
Perhaps, you're right in the grand scheme of things in the above-emphasized statement ("even a broken clock is right twice a day"). However, frankly, I currently don't care much about super long-term horizon. I don't expect my lifetime to span a large number of economic crises (that is, unless there will be ground-breaking progress in anti-aging / longevity science) and, so, at this time, I'm interested only in potential next one or two. Hence my questions.Northern Flicker wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 1:58 amIt matters because the mediocre track record of these types of arguments and analyses is indicative of the likelihood of success in applying the arguments in the videos to the present situation. I don't follow Nouriel Roubini. If you always predict severe economic deterioration, you will appear to be right when it happens.fingoals wrote: ↑Tue May 11, 2021 10:12 pmWhy should it matter? I'm seeking feedback on arguments / analysis presented in this specific interview. In this context, everything else is irrelevant.Californiastate wrote: ↑Tue May 11, 2021 9:32 pm Dr. Doom was all the rage after the financial crisis. Elaine Gazarelli was the rage after 87. I can't remember the last time an economist picked something correctly twice in a row.
Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
Unfortunately, your comment does not answer any of my questions at all. I'm interested in specific arguments presented in this specific interview.
Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
And what if his 20th prediction will be on the 4th real bear market (or, worse, economic crisis)? Aren't you interested in that?perfectuncertainty wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 8:48 amHe has predicted 19 of the last 3 bear markets.fingoals wrote: ↑Tue May 11, 2021 10:12 pmWhy should it matter? I'm seeking feedback on arguments / analysis presented in this specific interview. In this context, everything else is irrelevant.Californiastate wrote: ↑Tue May 11, 2021 9:32 pm Dr. Doom was all the rage after the financial crisis. Elaine Gazarelli was the rage after 87. I can't remember the last time an economist picked something correctly twice in a row.
Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
My pleasure. Thank you for kind words and balanced feedback. I don't have any actionable thoughts at the moment (priorities, priorities ...).Wannaretireearly wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 12:28 am Interesting watch. Thanks OP.
High school econ was fascinating to me, so it was nice to reminisce(stagflation etc).
So, from the Prof, we can expect:
High inflation
Weaker dollar
Less separation between the Fed and the Govt
Crash in at least the crypto bubble, given their risks
Remembering the stock market is NOT the economy, I can see some reality with all the above points. It was good watching the Prof explain some of the key factors in the current economy. However, I think even he is smart enough not to give absolute commitments.
What could be actionable? Perhaps invest in intermediate treasuries (inflation hedge). Any thoughts?
I get he is a perma-bear, but at market highs I'd pay more attention to him than someone professing the market will go up this year and next! Kinda like hedging your bets
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Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
Did I say that he did? I specifically worded my statements not to attribute any position, past or present, to Nouriel Roubini.HanSolo wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 4:52 amAre the Fed economists saying one thing and doing another? As I mentioned above, they're the ones treating the US economy as if it's a desperately sick patient in the ICU (via ZIRP and massive QE policies).
I'm not seeing where he predicted that in the video. What's the timestamp of where he said it?Northern Flicker wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 1:58 am I don't follow Nouriel Roubini. If you always predict severe economic deterioration, you will appear to be right when it happens.
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Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
Not in the slightest. I don't give a damn about anyone's predictions. I am an independent thinker.fingoals wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 12:24 pmAnd what if his 20th prediction will be on the 4th real bear market (or, worse, economic crisis)? Aren't you interested in that?perfectuncertainty wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 8:48 amHe has predicted 19 of the last 3 bear markets.fingoals wrote: ↑Tue May 11, 2021 10:12 pmWhy should it matter? I'm seeking feedback on arguments / analysis presented in this specific interview. In this context, everything else is irrelevant.Californiastate wrote: ↑Tue May 11, 2021 9:32 pm Dr. Doom was all the rage after the financial crisis. Elaine Gazarelli was the rage after 87. I can't remember the last time an economist picked something correctly twice in a row.
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Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
Most people including me, agree with that position. Beyond that it is not actionable. Buffet gambled against USD in early 2000s on the same presumption. So did Bill Gross, they have been wrong for 2 decades. At least they issued a Mea Culpa that they cost investors money.
They could all be right this decade, but what do we do with this information? Topic of diversification is already covered by bogleheads.
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Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
Why do fear mongers need to convert others to justify their position? The truth is they really don't believe it themselves. Misery loves company.fingoals wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 12:24 pmAnd what if his 20th prediction will be on the 4th real bear market (or, worse, economic crisis)? Aren't you interested in that?perfectuncertainty wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 8:48 amHe has predicted 19 of the last 3 bear markets.fingoals wrote: ↑Tue May 11, 2021 10:12 pmWhy should it matter? I'm seeking feedback on arguments / analysis presented in this specific interview. In this context, everything else is irrelevant.Californiastate wrote: ↑Tue May 11, 2021 9:32 pm Dr. Doom was all the rage after the financial crisis. Elaine Gazarelli was the rage after 87. I can't remember the last time an economist picked something correctly twice in a row.
Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
Well ... Independent thinking does not contradict with listening to arguments of others [with optional learning] and then making your own conclusions.perfectuncertainty wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 2:48 pmNot in the slightest. I don't give a damn about anyone's predictions. I am an independent thinker.fingoals wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 12:24 pmAnd what if his 20th prediction will be on the 4th real bear market (or, worse, economic crisis)? Aren't you interested in that?perfectuncertainty wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 8:48 amHe has predicted 19 of the last 3 bear markets.fingoals wrote: ↑Tue May 11, 2021 10:12 pmWhy should it matter? I'm seeking feedback on arguments / analysis presented in this specific interview. In this context, everything else is irrelevant.Californiastate wrote: ↑Tue May 11, 2021 9:32 pm Dr. Doom was all the rage after the financial crisis. Elaine Gazarelli was the rage after 87. I can't remember the last time an economist picked something correctly twice in a row.
Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
I didn't find any fear mongering in this particular interview. Just logical and sound arguments as well as balanced description of the current state of our economy (except the crypto space, as I have explained above). Many people would have less misery, should they believe Prof. Roubini's prediction of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009.Californiastate wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 5:20 pmWhy do fear mongers need to convert others to justify their position? The truth is they really don't believe it themselves. Misery loves company.fingoals wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 12:24 pmAnd what if his 20th prediction will be on the 4th real bear market (or, worse, economic crisis)? Aren't you interested in that?perfectuncertainty wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 8:48 amHe has predicted 19 of the last 3 bear markets.fingoals wrote: ↑Tue May 11, 2021 10:12 pmWhy should it matter? I'm seeking feedback on arguments / analysis presented in this specific interview. In this context, everything else is irrelevant.Californiastate wrote: ↑Tue May 11, 2021 9:32 pm Dr. Doom was all the rage after the financial crisis. Elaine Gazarelli was the rage after 87. I can't remember the last time an economist picked something correctly twice in a row.
Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
I was under the impression that the topic of this thread was the content of the two videos. I was trying to understand how your comment was relevant to that.Northern Flicker wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 2:32 pmDid I say that he did? I specifically worded my statements not to attribute any position, past or present, to Nouriel Roubini.HanSolo wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 4:52 amI'm not seeing where he predicted that in the video. What's the timestamp of where he said it?Northern Flicker wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 1:58 am I don't follow Nouriel Roubini. If you always predict severe economic deterioration, you will appear to be right when it happens.
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Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
It’s not about when he was right. It’s about all of the times he was wrong. How much money did people leave on the table using Dr. Doom as their barometer? Regardless that’s what makes it a market. Have a good day!fingoals wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 8:15 pmI didn't find any fear mongering in this particular interview. Just logical and sound arguments as well as balanced description of the current state of our economy (except the crypto space, as I have explained above). Many people would have less misery, should they believe Prof. Roubini's prediction of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009.Californiastate wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 5:20 pmWhy do fear mongers need to convert others to justify their position? The truth is they really don't believe it themselves. Misery loves company.fingoals wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 12:24 pmAnd what if his 20th prediction will be on the 4th real bear market (or, worse, economic crisis)? Aren't you interested in that?
Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
Impacts of various events are definitely not equal. What I meant above is that the magnitude of financial losses due to not listening to his correct GFC prediction most likely has been much higher than magnitude of the total amount left on the table when he was wrong. Have a nice day or night, too!Californiastate wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 10:49 pmIt’s not about when he was right. It’s about all of the times he was wrong. How much money did people leave on the table using Dr. Doom as their barometer? Regardless that’s what makes it a market. Have a good day!fingoals wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 8:15 pmI didn't find any fear mongering in this particular interview. Just logical and sound arguments as well as balanced description of the current state of our economy (except the crypto space, as I have explained above). Many people would have less misery, should they believe Prof. Roubini's prediction of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009.Californiastate wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 5:20 pmWhy do fear mongers need to convert others to justify their position? The truth is they really don't believe it themselves. Misery loves company.
Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
I watched them.
Yup, yup, yup, yup, yup... Nice accessible synopsis of the current situation. Agree on all points. He already said it.
It won't. Already did/doing what I think is best for me for the next 10 years. It doesn't include gold. You'll notice he didn't let himself get pinned there - they made him talk about it because it's Kitco, and he went safe answer (and they let him).2. If you largely agree with his outlook, how, if any, does /will it influence your investment strategy across short-, mid-, and long-term horizons?
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
Glad to hear that I'm not alone in my positive impression from his analysis (I'm indifferent to gold as well, so typically I simply ignore and skip relevant section of the discussion, on Kitco or elsewhere). Your feedback is much appreciated.Beensabu wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 11:55 pm I watched them.
Yup, yup, yup, yup, yup... Nice accessible synopsis of the current situation. Agree on all points. He already said it.
It won't. Already did/doing what I think is best for me for the next 10 years. It doesn't include gold. You'll notice he didn't let himself get pinned there - they made him talk about it because it's Kitco, and he went safe answer (and they let him).2. If you largely agree with his outlook, how, if any, does /will it influence your investment strategy across short-, mid-, and long-term horizons?
Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
Are we now living Mr Roubini's predictions? What did he get right?
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Re: Interesting interview with Nouriel Roubini
The persistent inflation over time point is debatable, based on recent month over month changes. Likewise it's not reasonable to suggest stagflation at this time. Both of those initial points are generally not consistent with the current situation, so I didn't see much reason to continue watching the interview.
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