SmallCap Heads and REITS Fans

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IndyMachiner
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SmallCap Heads and REITS Fans

Post by IndyMachiner »

I have started out with Taylor Larimore’s classic Three Fund Portfolio containing the following. 70% Vanguard Total U.S. Stock Market 20% Vanguard Ex-US Total International Stock Market and 10% Vanguard Total Bond Market. After a couple years of research, reading literature from the likes of Rick Ferri, Paul Merriman, and Bill Bernstein I have found that my wife and I’s portfolio will be better suited with a little bit more diversification and moving towards 100 percent equites with our ages being in the early to mid-twenties. Keeping it simple is the most important thing for both of us, so when I read about Rick Ferri’s “Core Four” portfolios I fell in love with the continued simplicity it stresses. The idea that I will be able to add a small tilt to the Total US and International funds that we will continue to retain in our portfolio is exciting. This makes for the the smartest way to add flavor to our cake mix.

Although we will be removing the bond portion, we will be adding a US Small Cap Value Fund and a Total Real Estate index fund. I am pretty much matching what Rick uses as an example in this his write up for Forbes from 2012. Our new buy and hold for life allocation choices are now Vanguard Total U.S. Stock Market 40%, Vanguard Ex-US Total International Stock Market 30%, US Small Cap Value(Avantis Small Cap Value ETF) 20%, and Vanguard’s REIT ETF 10%.

I believe this will allow us to better follow the economy’s actual returns and reap potential benefits of holding a Value oriented fund for 30 plus years before retiring. I am curious to see if any other Bogleheads have a similar allocation and why? Also how long have you used a portfolio similar to this?


https://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri ... 9cbda52044
Last edited by IndyMachiner on Sun May 09, 2021 6:02 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Rick Ferri’s Global Economy Portfolio

Post by vineviz »

I don’t use this weighting scheme: I think the “global economy” weighting is a gimmick more than a sound allocation scheme.

That said, it’s unlikely to be a terrible portfolio. I know that’s not very strong praise.
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Re: Rick Ferri’s Global Economy Portfolio

Post by IndyMachiner »

Hmm interesting, the data correlated pretty well in his article, but I could see what you are pointing out there.
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Re: Rick Ferri’s Global Economy Portfolio

Post by FiveFactor »

Rick Ferry chases the latest fads. He was an index guy, then a factor guy, now this. No credibility.
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Re: Rick Ferri’s Global Economy Portfolio

Post by absolute zero »

vineviz wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 3:05 pm I don’t use this weighting scheme: I think the “global economy” weighting is a gimmick more than a sound allocation scheme.

That said, it’s unlikely to be a terrible portfolio. I know that’s not very strong praise.
If OP takes his 10% US REIT position and instead shifts it to emerging markets, then this portfolio is virtually identical to your proposed Boglehead 5 fund portfolio.

It seems like a well diversified portfolio to me, regardless of what type of scheme/idea inspired the portfolio.
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Re: Rick Ferri’s Global Economy Portfolio

Post by retiredjg »

I think it is a mistake to eliminate bonds (and other fixed income assets) from a portfolio. And I'm not so sure that Rick suggests it either.

However, it would not surprise me if what you listed is one of his older recommendations for the stock side of a portfolio (except your numbers don't add up right...).

The discussion in your link is about the stock side of the portfolio, not the portfolio. Here is Rick's current web page on the portfolio you are thinking about. https://core-4.com/total-economy-core-4-portfolio/
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Re: Rick Ferri’s Global Economy Portfolio

Post by IndyMachiner »

retiredjg wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 4:20 pm I think it is a mistake to eliminate bonds (and other fixed income assets) from a portfolio. And I'm not so sure that Rick suggests it either.

However, it would not surprise me if what you listed is one of his older recommendations for the stock side of a portfolio (except your numbers don't add up right...).

The discussion in your link is about the stock side of the portfolio, not the portfolio. Here is Rick's current web page on the portfolio you are thinking about. https://core-4.com/total-economy-core-4-portfolio/
I’ve seen that post, I believe my risk tolerance I much higher than the average investor that is all. I also fixed the math in my first post. Thanks
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Re: Rick Ferri’s Global Economy Portfolio

Post by Big Dog »

retiredjg wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 4:20 pm I think it is a mistake to eliminate bonds (and other fixed income assets) from a portfolio. And I'm not so sure that Rick suggests it either.

However, it would not surprise me if what you listed is one of his older recommendations for the stock side of a portfolio (except your numbers don't add up right...).

The discussion in your link is about the stock side of the portfolio, not the portfolio. Here is Rick's current web page on the portfolio you are thinking about. https://core-4.com/total-economy-core-4-portfolio/
Long as they can sleep well at night, nothing wrong with a 100% equity portfolio for someone in their 20's, and a full work career ahead of them. That's what I recommend to my early-30 children. (Heck, I was 100% equities until early 60's, when I slowly gravitated toward a 2-fund portfolio.)
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Re: Rick Ferri’s Global Economy Portfolio

Post by tonyclifton »

IndyMachiner wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 2:15 pm After a couple years of research, reading literature from the likes of Rick Ferri, Paul Merriman, and Bill Bernstein I have found that my wife and I’s portfolio will be better suited with a little bit more diversification and moving towards 100 percent equites with our ages being in the early to mid-twenties.
I believe your proposed new portfolio is less diverse than the original portfolio. You are removing an asset class (total bond) and over weighting value and reit which are already in your total market index fund.

Whatever the reason for the change, write it down in your investing policy statement and stick to it.
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Re: Rick Ferri’s Global Economy Portfolio

Post by IndyMachiner »

Big Dog wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 5:20 pm
retiredjg wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 4:20 pm I think it is a mistake to eliminate bonds (and other fixed income assets) from a portfolio. And I'm not so sure that Rick suggests it either.

However, it would not surprise me if what you listed is one of his older recommendations for the stock side of a portfolio (except your numbers don't add up right...).

The discussion in your link is about the stock side of the portfolio, not the portfolio. Here is Rick's current web page on the portfolio you are thinking about. https://core-4.com/total-economy-core-4-portfolio/
Long as they can sleep well at night, nothing wrong with a 100% equity portfolio for someone in their 20's, and a full work career ahead of them. That's what I recommend to my early-30 children. (Heck, I was 100% equities until early 60's, when I slowly gravitated toward a 2-fund portfolio.)
I am very comfortable taking this kind of risk especially since I’m not investing in single stocks. I look at this as a business in the long run.
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Re: Rick Ferri’s Global Economy Portfolio

Post by abuss368 »

FiveFactor wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 3:42 pm Rick Ferry chases the latest fads. He was an index guy, then a factor guy, now this. No credibility.
Seriously......I think Rick has focused more on simplicity as time has moved forward.

Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: SmallCap Heads and REITS Fans

Post by BuyAndHoldOn »

I've held REITs and small caps for almost a decade. They haven't beaten the S&P 500, although they have had a strong start to the year 2021.

Be careful what you wish for: I don't think I can allocate capital better than the rest of the investors in the world (hence why I now buy VT, the total world index, and call it a day). Trying to duplicate a private market holding strategy in public markets doesn't incorporate the value of what assets are available in the public markets (e.g., you aren't getting access to the private land that makes up that larger % of global assets. You are just buying a larger slice of a smaller piece that is available).

But I suppose you may know all of this already. Good luck!
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Re: SmallCap Heads and REITS Fans

Post by Metsfan91 »

IndyMachiner wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 2:15 pm ... Our new buy and hold for life allocation choices are now Vanguard Total U.S. Stock Market 40%, Vanguard Ex-US Total International Stock Market 30%, US Small Cap Value(Avantis Small Cap Value ETF) 20%, and Vanguard’s REIT ETF 10%.

I believe this will allow us to better follow the economy’s actual returns and reap potential benefits of holding a Value oriented fund for 30 plus years before retiring. I am curious to see if any other Bogleheads have a similar allocation and why? Also how long have you used a portfolio similar to this?
You seem to have constructed a pretty good portfolio. Vanguard total international holds about 26% in emerging markets. So, you are holding about 8% in emerging markets regardless of what others say.

I hold about 8% in REIT, about 10% in Emerging Markets, over 25% in value tilted small-cap, and roughly 50/50 in US vs Ex-US. So, my holdings are not exactly like yours.
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Re: SmallCap Heads and REITS Fans

Post by IndyMachiner »

Are you tilted towards Small Cap Value in both International and US as well?
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Re: Rick Ferri’s Global Economy Portfolio

Post by IndyMachiner »

abuss368 wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 6:38 pm
FiveFactor wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 3:42 pm Rick Ferry chases the latest fads. He was an index guy, then a factor guy, now this. No credibility.
Seriously......I think Rick has focused more on simplicity as time has moved forward.

Tony
Yes I agree wholeheartedly, my tilted portfolio would look atrocious if it weren’t for the likes of someone like John Bogle or Rick Ferri. Use the TSM and Total International fund as the base for your portfolio, I am so thankful for the Bogleheads simple approach to investing.
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Re: SmallCap Heads and REITS Fans

Post by chw »

I don’t think you need REITs (I believe Rick has moved away from them in recent years as he advocates for simpler portfolios). SCV is debatable if it’s needed, but one could allocate a 10-20% slice to that asset class. And, international, many thoughts on this including using market weight. Jack Bogle himself said International not necessarily needed, but if one was compelled to invest internationally, a 20% allocation could be adequate.

Lastly, I would have a holding in bonds/HY savings at any age.
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Re: SmallCap Heads and REITS Fans

Post by YRT70 »

Some Bogleheads choose to include extra small cap value funds in their portfolio. An explanation for why can be found here: https://www.pwlcapital.com/wp-content/u ... h-ETFs.pdf
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Re: SmallCap Heads and REITS Fans

Post by abuss368 »

chw wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 6:25 am I don’t think you need REITs (I believe Rick has moved away from them in recent years as he advocates for simpler portfolios). SCV is debatable if it’s needed, but one could allocate a 10-20% slice to that asset class. And, international, many thoughts on this including using market weight. Jack Bogle himself said International not necessarily needed, but if one was compelled to invest internationally, a 20% allocation could be adequate.

Lastly, I would have a holding in bonds/HY savings at any age.
I agree that a separate REIT fund is not needed. The market weight of REITs is in Total Stock.

Tony
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Re: SmallCap Heads and REITS Fans

Post by NiceUnparticularMan »

We've been investing in more than just TSM since 2006. That entire time we have had the same basic TARGET allocations to small-value, international, and REITs. But the exact percentages of the small-value stuff we can actually hold has been subject to availability in 401Ks and such, and we are STILL not entirely on target. Similarly we have had target International all along, but not the exact mix of International that would be our target, But we have been at target REITs for a long time, thanks to using our Roth IRAs for that purpose (among others).

Anyway, first and foremost, my advice is to make sure whatever plan you come up with at this point is truly one you are going to be willing to live with for the rest of your accumulation phase. Over time, allocations can fall in and out of popular favor, due either to recent relative performance or changing expectations for future relative performance, and a lot of the times that sort of logic can be "hidden" in things like an argument for "simplification" and so on. And I do in fact plan to simplify, once, when we make the transition from accumulation to withdrawal. But not during accumulation, in part because I don't want to fall for hidden performance-based logic.

But if you are truly fine with sticking with that allocation throughout allocation, even if for years other people are showing better paper returns with different/simpler portfolios, then that is reasonable.

One last thought--personally, we have a 7-10% top-level REIT target (so not as a percentage of stocks or "equity", since I don't believe in lumping all "equity" together and I don't think REITs are stocks). However, because of the REITs that show up in various other funds, we only have 4% actually in REIT funds in our IRAs. It is up to you, but if you are actually looking for just 10% REITs total, you might similarly think about backing down a bit in light of the REITs you will have in other funds. But I don't know what that is currently--I did the calculation, once, to get to 4% being about right, and don't intend to do it again.
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Re: SmallCap Heads and REITS Fans

Post by Metsfan91 »

IndyMachiner wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 4:26 am Are you tilted towards Small Cap Value in both International and US as well?
Small value tilt in US only. I am using small blend for international small cap. Vanguard doesn't have international small value. Fidelity didn't either.
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Re: SmallCap Heads and REITS Fans

Post by IndyMachiner »

NiceUnparticularMan wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 8:31 am We've been investing in more than just TSM since 2006. That entire time we have had the same basic TARGET allocations to small-value, international, and REITs. But the exact percentages of the small-value stuff we can actually hold has been subject to availability in 401Ks and such, and we are STILL not entirely on target. Similarly we have had target International all along, but not the exact mix of International that would be our target, But we have been at target REITs for a long time, thanks to using our Roth IRAs for that purpose (among others).

Anyway, first and foremost, my advice is to make sure whatever plan you come up with at this point is truly one you are going to be willing to live with for the rest of your accumulation phase. Over time, allocations can fall in and out of popular favor, due either to recent relative performance or changing expectations for future relative performance, and a lot of the times that sort of logic can be "hidden" in things like an argument for "simplification" and so on. And I do in fact plan to simplify, once, when we make the transition from accumulation to withdrawal. But not during accumulation, in part because I don't want to fall for hidden performance-based logic.

But if you are truly fine with sticking with that allocation throughout allocation, even if for years other people are showing better paper returns with different/simpler portfolios, then that is reasonable.

One last thought--personally, we have a 7-10% top-level REIT target (so not as a percentage of stocks or "equity", since I don't believe in lumping all "equity" together and I don't think REITs are stocks). However, because of the REITs that show up in various other funds, we only have 4% actually in REIT funds in our IRAs. It is up to you, but if you are actually looking for just 10% REITs total, you might similarly think about backing down a bit in light of the REITs you will have in other funds. But I don't know what that is currently--I did the calculation, once, to get to 4% being about right, and don't intend to do it again.
That’s a great thought, 4-5% sounds about right. Especially since there are a reasonable amount of REITS included in small cap funds as it is(At this present time at least)
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Re: SmallCap Heads and REITS Fans

Post by NiceUnparticularMan »

IndyMachiner wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:19 am
NiceUnparticularMan wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 8:31 am We've been investing in more than just TSM since 2006. That entire time we have had the same basic TARGET allocations to small-value, international, and REITs. But the exact percentages of the small-value stuff we can actually hold has been subject to availability in 401Ks and such, and we are STILL not entirely on target. Similarly we have had target International all along, but not the exact mix of International that would be our target, But we have been at target REITs for a long time, thanks to using our Roth IRAs for that purpose (among others).

Anyway, first and foremost, my advice is to make sure whatever plan you come up with at this point is truly one you are going to be willing to live with for the rest of your accumulation phase. Over time, allocations can fall in and out of popular favor, due either to recent relative performance or changing expectations for future relative performance, and a lot of the times that sort of logic can be "hidden" in things like an argument for "simplification" and so on. And I do in fact plan to simplify, once, when we make the transition from accumulation to withdrawal. But not during accumulation, in part because I don't want to fall for hidden performance-based logic.

But if you are truly fine with sticking with that allocation throughout allocation, even if for years other people are showing better paper returns with different/simpler portfolios, then that is reasonable.

One last thought--personally, we have a 7-10% top-level REIT target (so not as a percentage of stocks or "equity", since I don't believe in lumping all "equity" together and I don't think REITs are stocks). However, because of the REITs that show up in various other funds, we only have 4% actually in REIT funds in our IRAs. It is up to you, but if you are actually looking for just 10% REITs total, you might similarly think about backing down a bit in light of the REITs you will have in other funds. But I don't know what that is currently--I did the calculation, once, to get to 4% being about right, and don't intend to do it again.
That’s a great thought, 4-5% sounds about right. Especially since there are a reasonable amount of REITS included in small cap funds as it is(At this present time at least)
Yeah, also being a value or small-value investor can easily mean you have even more REITs buried in your funds than a TSM investor--although that depends on the fund, including because some exclude REITs (which is what I wish they all did, but oh well). And even TSM is going to vary over time.

Fortunately, if like me you don't think it particularly matters whether your allocation to REITs ends up exactly 10% (or whatever your plan calls for as ideal), then you can roughly estimate this once, and just be done with it.
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Re: SmallCap Heads and REITS Fans

Post by IndyMachiner »

NiceUnparticularMan wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 7:25 am
IndyMachiner wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:19 am
NiceUnparticularMan wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 8:31 am We've been investing in more than just TSM since 2006. That entire time we have had the same basic TARGET allocations to small-value, international, and REITs. But the exact percentages of the small-value stuff we can actually hold has been subject to availability in 401Ks and such, and we are STILL not entirely on target. Similarly we have had target International all along, but not the exact mix of International that would be our target, But we have been at target REITs for a long time, thanks to using our Roth IRAs for that purpose (among others).

Anyway, first and foremost, my advice is to make sure whatever plan you come up with at this point is truly one you are going to be willing to live with for the rest of your accumulation phase. Over time, allocations can fall in and out of popular favor, due either to recent relative performance or changing expectations for future relative performance, and a lot of the times that sort of logic can be "hidden" in things like an argument for "simplification" and so on. And I do in fact plan to simplify, once, when we make the transition from accumulation to withdrawal. But not during accumulation, in part because I don't want to fall for hidden performance-based logic.

But if you are truly fine with sticking with that allocation throughout allocation, even if for years other people are showing better paper returns with different/simpler portfolios, then that is reasonable.

One last thought--personally, we have a 7-10% top-level REIT target (so not as a percentage of stocks or "equity", since I don't believe in lumping all "equity" together and I don't think REITs are stocks). However, because of the REITs that show up in various other funds, we only have 4% actually in REIT funds in our IRAs. It is up to you, but if you are actually looking for just 10% REITs total, you might similarly think about backing down a bit in light of the REITs you will have in other funds. But I don't know what that is currently--I did the calculation, once, to get to 4% being about right, and don't intend to do it again.
That’s a great thought, 4-5% sounds about right. Especially since there are a reasonable amount of REITS included in small cap funds as it is(At this present time at least)
Yeah, also being a value or small-value investor can easily mean you have even more REITs buried in your funds than a TSM investor--although that depends on the fund, including because some exclude REITs (which is what I wish they all did, but oh well). And even TSM is going to vary over time.

Fortunately, if like me you don't think it particularly matters whether your allocation to REITs ends up exactly 10% (or whatever your plan calls for as ideal), then you can roughly estimate this once, and just be done with it.
Thank you for that introspective, I will change how I view my REITS allocation with that in mind.
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Re: SmallCap Heads and REITS Fans

Post by YRT70 »

IndyMachiner wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 10:30 pm Thank you for that introspective, I will change how I view my REITS allocation with that in mind.
Not sure if this was mentioned before but AVUV doesn't contain REITs.

https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/avuv/portfolio
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Re: SmallCap Heads and REITS Fans

Post by NiceUnparticularMan »

YRT70 wrote: Sat May 15, 2021 8:54 am
IndyMachiner wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 10:30 pm Thank you for that introspective, I will change how I view my REITS allocation with that in mind.
Not sure if this was mentioned before but AVUV doesn't contain REITs.

https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/avuv/portfolio
And this sort of thing is part of why I find it frustrating that REITs are not consistently excluded from common stock funds. Because depending on what happens with 401ks, tax loss harvesting, and just new ETFs people recommend, I don't think one can be sure exactly which funds one will be using over a long career of investing.

Oh well.
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Re: SmallCap Heads and REITS Fans

Post by NiceUnparticularMan »

YRT70 wrote: Sat May 15, 2021 8:54 am
IndyMachiner wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 10:30 pm Thank you for that introspective, I will change how I view my REITS allocation with that in mind.
Not sure if this was mentioned before but AVUV doesn't contain REITs.

https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/avuv/portfolio
And this sort of thing is part of why I find it frustrating that REITs are not consistently excluded from common stock funds. Because depending on what happens with 401ks, tax loss harvesting, and just new ETFs people recommend, I don't think one can be sure exactly which funds one will be using over a long career of investing.

Oh well.
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