Crypto mania !

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
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txhill
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by txhill »

mikejuss wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 6:59 pm What is the forum's consensus on the safest way to buy cryptocurrency? Coinbase, Gemini, Robinhood?
I believe consensus will be NOT Robinhood. Personally I have had good experiences with Coinbase Pro and Gemini Active Trader, both have low fees. Gemini appears to be the most regulated exchange, Coinbase is the biggest and also a public company. So both have safety benefits. Robin Hood will not let you transfer off their platform and when volume is high they have a history of shutting down trades. So use RH with caution.
PerchiN
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by PerchiN »

mikejuss wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 6:59 pm What is the forum's consensus on the safest way to buy cryptocurrency? Coinbase, Gemini, Robinhood?
I use Coinbase pro for the lower fees vs regular Coinbase. You can always transfer it to coinbase for free as well if you're interested in staking some of your crypto there.

I would avoid Robinhood as I read that you don't actually own the crypto you buy on their platform. You basically just trade it and can't transfer out.
mikejuss
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by mikejuss »

PerchiN wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 7:13 pm
mikejuss wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 6:59 pm What is the forum's consensus on the safest way to buy cryptocurrency? Coinbase, Gemini, Robinhood?
I use Coinbase pro for the lower fees vs regular Coinbase. You can always transfer it to coinbase for free as well if you're interested in staking some of your crypto there.

I would avoid Robinhood as I read that you don't actually own the crypto you buy on their platform. You basically just trade it and can't transfer out.
In terms of selling crypto holdings, are there restrictions? Can only so much be sold at once?
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PerchiN
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by PerchiN »

mikejuss wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 6:59 pm
In terms of selling crypto holdings, are there restrictions? Can only so much be sold at once?
Are you talking about Robinhood?

I can't say for sure if there are selling restrictions as I don't use their platform. Maybe someone else can chime in and answer that question for you sorry!
am
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by am »

I have tried to use the etherium network last couple of days to buy a few joke coins like shiba inu for fun. Went to uniswap. Set up a transaction for 10 bucks and the network fees were about 380 bucks :shock: How will the etherium network function with fees like this?
tontot
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by tontot »

mikejuss wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 7:33 pm In terms of selling crypto holdings, are there restrictions? Can only so much be sold at once?
There is no restriction but place like Robinhood has history to crash / freeze at the convenient time when you want to sell.

In other words, don't use Robinhood. You does not buy crypto there. You buy a piece of certification that you own crypto and can only sell that certification back to Robinhood.

You can not withdraw to your own wallet, you can not withdraw to CeFi (BlockFi, Celsius etc) to earn interest, you can not stake etc
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rhoms33
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by rhoms33 »

txhill wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 7:09 pm
mikejuss wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 6:59 pm What is the forum's consensus on the safest way to buy cryptocurrency? Coinbase, Gemini, Robinhood?
I believe consensus will be NOT Robinhood. Personally I have had good experiences with Coinbase Pro and Gemini Active Trader, both have low fees. Gemini appears to be the most regulated exchange, Coinbase is the biggest and also a public company. So both have safety benefits. Robin Hood will not let you transfer off their platform and when volume is high they have a history of shutting down trades. So use RH with caution.
Echo this. Do not use RH. Not your keys, not your coins.

I have used Gemini and Coinbase. Pro and active trader as the fees are lower. Have made purchases and transfers to/from both without issue.
chinchin
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by chinchin »

BREAKING:

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg names his pet goats Max and Bitcoin.

https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=101 ... 9237706231
not financial advice
decapod10
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by decapod10 »

am wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 7:46 pm I have tried to use the etherium network last couple of days to buy a few joke coins like shiba inu for fun. Went to uniswap. Set up a transaction for 10 bucks and the network fees were about 380 bucks :shock: How will the etherium network function with fees like this?
Yeah, gas fees went haywire the past few days. There is something called "layer 2 solutions" that should help. Uniswap is supposed to be using an L2 called Optimism will reduce gas fees. Not sure when that will happen, except "soon".
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watchnerd
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by watchnerd »

ballons wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 6:20 pm

Hilarious will be you adding more dog coins to your market weight crypto strategy in a month.
I can't buy them on Coinbase, so they're excluded.
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txhill
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by txhill »

watchnerd wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 8:35 pm
ballons wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 6:20 pm

Hilarious will be you adding more dog coins to your market weight crypto strategy in a month.
I can't buy them on Coinbase, so they're excluded.
Yet... :)
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JonnyDVM
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by JonnyDVM »

HomerJ wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 2:44 pm
telemark wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 2:20 pmthen are surprised and sometimes annoyed to find that there is little interest in speculating on new things. Do they even look at the wiki? Is this the kind of due diligence they do on their investments?
Heh. Very salient point.

Seriously.
Homer. I only quoted you because I just came across this gem I thought you might enjoy whilst doing a little crypto recon-

“At Walletinvestor.com we predict future values with technical analysis for wide selection of digital coins like Ren. If you are looking for virtual currencies with good return, REN can be a profitable investment option. ... With a 5-year investment, the revenue is expected to be around +709.64%.”

700%!!!!!!!! :greedy :moneybag :greedy :moneybag
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qwerty123
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by qwerty123 »

decapod10 wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 8:24 pm
am wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 7:46 pm I have tried to use the etherium network last couple of days to buy a few joke coins like shiba inu for fun. Went to uniswap. Set up a transaction for 10 bucks and the network fees were about 380 bucks :shock: How will the etherium network function with fees like this?
Yeah, gas fees went haywire the past few days. There is something called "layer 2 solutions" that should help. Uniswap is supposed to be using an L2 called Optimism will reduce gas fees. Not sure when that will happen, except "soon".
It's already happening, I've been using polygon / matic network (a layer 2 for Ethereum), and fees are subcent, it's a nice breath of fresh air.
decapod10
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by decapod10 »

qwerty123 wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 8:54 pm
decapod10 wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 8:24 pm
am wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 7:46 pm I have tried to use the etherium network last couple of days to buy a few joke coins like shiba inu for fun. Went to uniswap. Set up a transaction for 10 bucks and the network fees were about 380 bucks :shock: How will the etherium network function with fees like this?
Yeah, gas fees went haywire the past few days. There is something called "layer 2 solutions" that should help. Uniswap is supposed to be using an L2 called Optimism will reduce gas fees. Not sure when that will happen, except "soon".
It's already happening, I've been using polygon / matic network (a layer 2 for Ethereum), and fees are subcent, it's a nice breath of fresh air.
Yeah, I've used Matic to buy/sell a few NFTs, the lack of gas is nice, though there is some friction with transferring ETH on/off
qwerty123
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by qwerty123 »

decapod10 wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 8:57 pm
qwerty123 wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 8:54 pm
decapod10 wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 8:24 pm
am wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 7:46 pm I have tried to use the etherium network last couple of days to buy a few joke coins like shiba inu for fun. Went to uniswap. Set up a transaction for 10 bucks and the network fees were about 380 bucks :shock: How will the etherium network function with fees like this?
Yeah, gas fees went haywire the past few days. There is something called "layer 2 solutions" that should help. Uniswap is supposed to be using an L2 called Optimism will reduce gas fees. Not sure when that will happen, except "soon".
It's already happening, I've been using polygon / matic network (a layer 2 for Ethereum), and fees are subcent, it's a nice breath of fresh air.
Yeah, I've used Matic to buy/sell a few NFTs, the lack of gas is nice, though there is some friction with transferring ETH on/off
I'm hoping exchanges start to integrate directly with L2's at some point.
k1dpsu
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by k1dpsu »

Gadget wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 6:43 pm
claypigeon wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 2:17 pm There are other third generation coins out there. I like algorand as well. But if I had to pick one coin to dominate the future it’s ADA / cardano
Your technical analysis of ADA is spot on. I'll play devil's advocate though.

I don't really see any convincing reasons for DeFi, Dapps, and NFTs to move from ETH to ADA unless the ethereum 2.0 merge fails. If that happens, I do think Cardano could be the next best option. But it seems like a big if.

Charles Hoskinson, the leader of Cardano, is also kind of a polarizing figure. I'm not a huge fan of him, but I could see how some could be. But I feel like he is one Youtube video away from causing a mass exodus from his platform just based on his political like rants.

Currently, the programming language for Cardano is terrible. Even if they implement smart contracts, I wouldn't want to have to develop on some weird language no one uses.

Part of the reason Cardano is able to have such cheap transaction costs is because no one is using the network. ETH would be pennies per transaction too if it had the usage Cardano did.

Projects like Matic are more of a threat to Cardano to me. Because Matic allows anyone to utilize and transact on the main ethereum network for pennies. If that is the case and Matic side chain support via Uniswap and other DeFi projects gains usage, what does Cardano have to offer?

If we're going purely off technicals, look at Harmony One. They have smart contracts, DeFi exchanges (ViperSwap), and they have one of the best implementations of sharding. Their transaction times are lightning quick. But no one uses ONE, so how inflated are their technicals? Would it have scaling issues if it became the giant that is Ethereum?

In my opinion, ADA is best suited as a downside hedge to a large bet on ETH. Like maybe if you had a bunch of ETH validators, you'd want some ADA before the ETH 2.0 merge just in case it fails.

To be fair, I used to have some ADA. I sold it all after reporting bugs that you can't use ADA on any of the main wallets with a hardware wallet and passphrase enabled. That seems like a capital offense on usability. It's been months, and they still haven't bothered to fix that bug, even though they said on reddit they are aware. I also got turned off on Hoskinsons rants.
This post right here is alpha.
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watchnerd
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by watchnerd »

JonnyDVM wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 8:53 pm
HomerJ wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 2:44 pm
telemark wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 2:20 pmthen are surprised and sometimes annoyed to find that there is little interest in speculating on new things. Do they even look at the wiki? Is this the kind of due diligence they do on their investments?
Heh. Very salient point.

Seriously.
Homer. I only quoted you because I just came across this gem I thought you might enjoy whilst doing a little crypto recon-

“At Walletinvestor.com we predict future values with technical analysis for wide selection of digital coins like Ren. If you are looking for virtual currencies with good return, REN can be a profitable investment option. ... With a 5-year investment, the revenue is expected to be around +709.64%.”

700%!!!!!!!! :greedy :moneybag :greedy :moneybag
7X appreciation over 5 years certainly happened with the more popular alt coins over the last 5 years.

Now, will that continue?

I have a hard time seeing how the crypto space grows beyond $5T market cap over the next 2 years.
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Prahasaurus
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Prahasaurus »

OohLaLa wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 6:03 pm
Prahasaurus wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 4:39 pm Yes, you are paying a protocol. You are not paying that "benevolent geek with a crypto node." It's true the geek does get paid, but not by you. He is paid by the protocol (the code). Maybe it's a subtle distinction, but it's critically important to understanding how decentralized systems work.
[...]
You went into detail about the particularities of a decentralized system, none of which changes the fundamental economic reality of a person providing a service for a profit. The owner-operator gets paid in both cases. With respect to that basic principle, it doesn't matter if you see them, if they know what you are doing, if you hand them your dollar bill or if the Borg does it etc.

I really don't know why this basic question is so contentious.

One thing that I like about the "middlemen" in DeFi, in concept, is that they represent a sort of cooperative model of ownership. They share a common set of rules and shared returns. The model is open to participation by a wider population. In the concept of ownership, there is a definite difference.

The cynical side of me sees how it's playing out in reality so far, though. The barrier to entry is becoming more and more costly, with costs like 100k to stake ETH (and getting worse), and is closing the door to more and more people, instead of "democratizing" finance like doe-eyed proponents claim loudly. Sure it's decentralized, but it gets more and more concentrated... and to whom? The richest.

I would be really happy to see some cryptocurrency rise up to the challenge and make it more feasible and truly democratic, but I am not getting my hopes up. :(

You can't really compare the "sleazy banker" with the geek.
Yes, I can; they both have horrible fashion sense. So do I, while we're at it. :mrgreen:
I'm not against saying the protocol takes a cut. My issue was equating the node operator with a banker, because it obfuscates the entire concept of decentralization. It implied agency to the node operator, the ability to approve or disapprove loans, for example. When that is coded into the algorithm. And determined by the DAO (in general).

Yes, the cooperative model of ownership in crypto is key! That is why profits are typically shared out to users in a big way. It's why I make 8-10% at Aave and my detractors here are happy to make .1% at their traditional, US bank. While that bank's CEO is making hundreds of millions each year. The DAO is one of the major innovations we've seen from crypto, and this is evolving in real time.

You are right to note the barrier to entry issue, but it's being solved. The innovation in crypto is at a lightning speed. With Ethereum, it's true you need 32 ETH to operate your own node (as of today). But you can participate in centralized (e.g. Coinbase) or decentralized pools like Rocket Pool which allow you to stake very small amounts. So the person with .1 ETH can earn interest on that ETH and be part of the Ethereum Virtual Machine, he or she can participate! The Ethereum community has already recognized this problem and is building solutions as we debate this very point.

See here for more on Rocket Pool: https://www.rocketpool.net

Lido Finance is another option: https://lido.fi

Crypto will eat traditional finance because of how responsive it is to users, how innovative. The users are typically the owners. I have no doubt traditional finance will go after this model in a big way, once they realize how disruptive it will be to them. I also have no doubt regulators will favor traditional finance, since politicians are bribed (sorry, lobbied) by traditional finance. Those CEO's earning hundreds of millions (bailed out regularly by taxpayers) will definitely do whatever they can to protect their privileged lives.

And sadly, many of the people getting crumbs will defend our current system out of fear and ignorance. That is clearly one takeaway I have from participating in discussions here on crypto. The slave mentality is real...
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Prahasaurus
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Prahasaurus »

k1dpsu wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 9:41 pm
Gadget wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 6:43 pm
claypigeon wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 2:17 pm There are other third generation coins out there. I like algorand as well. But if I had to pick one coin to dominate the future it’s ADA / cardano
Your technical analysis of ADA is spot on. I'll play devil's advocate though.

I don't really see any convincing reasons for DeFi, Dapps, and NFTs to move from ETH to ADA unless the ethereum 2.0 merge fails. If that happens, I do think Cardano could be the next best option. But it seems like a big if.

Charles Hoskinson, the leader of Cardano, is also kind of a polarizing figure. I'm not a huge fan of him, but I could see how some could be. But I feel like he is one Youtube video away from causing a mass exodus from his platform just based on his political like rants.

Currently, the programming language for Cardano is terrible. Even if they implement smart contracts, I wouldn't want to have to develop on some weird language no one uses.

Part of the reason Cardano is able to have such cheap transaction costs is because no one is using the network. ETH would be pennies per transaction too if it had the usage Cardano did.

Projects like Matic are more of a threat to Cardano to me. Because Matic allows anyone to utilize and transact on the main ethereum network for pennies. If that is the case and Matic side chain support via Uniswap and other DeFi projects gains usage, what does Cardano have to offer?

If we're going purely off technicals, look at Harmony One. They have smart contracts, DeFi exchanges (ViperSwap), and they have one of the best implementations of sharding. Their transaction times are lightning quick. But no one uses ONE, so how inflated are their technicals? Would it have scaling issues if it became the giant that is Ethereum?

In my opinion, ADA is best suited as a downside hedge to a large bet on ETH. Like maybe if you had a bunch of ETH validators, you'd want some ADA before the ETH 2.0 merge just in case it fails.

To be fair, I used to have some ADA. I sold it all after reporting bugs that you can't use ADA on any of the main wallets with a hardware wallet and passphrase enabled. That seems like a capital offense on usability. It's been months, and they still haven't bothered to fix that bug, even though they said on reddit they are aware. I also got turned off on Hoskinsons rants.
This post right here is alpha.
Completely agree. Excellent overview. I have a strong dislike for Cardano, because its founder is, well, a total jerk. Doesn't make it a bad investment or a bad project per se. But I don't want to be part of a community with such an entitled #$%%# driving innovation.
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Prahasaurus
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Prahasaurus »

JonnyDVM wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 8:53 pm
HomerJ wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 2:44 pm
telemark wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 2:20 pmthen are surprised and sometimes annoyed to find that there is little interest in speculating on new things. Do they even look at the wiki? Is this the kind of due diligence they do on their investments?
Heh. Very salient point.

Seriously.
Homer. I only quoted you because I just came across this gem I thought you might enjoy whilst doing a little crypto recon-

“At Walletinvestor.com we predict future values with technical analysis for wide selection of digital coins like Ren. If you are looking for virtual currencies with good return, REN can be a profitable investment option. ... With a 5-year investment, the revenue is expected to be around +709.64%.”

700%!!!!!!!! :greedy :moneybag :greedy :moneybag
Most of the analysis in crypto is garbage. The vast majority is around technical analysis and other momentum investor tools, which I don't really understand or use (not saying they aren't helpful in some cases, just not my thing).

If you want to talk Ren, I've been running nodes at Ren for almost a year, I participate in governance, I follow the project very closely. I am optimistic about their future, but it's a highly speculative project. I don't think you'll have an intelligent discussion here on Ren, sadly.

As to revenue growth, Ren is very much linked to partner integrations. And that takes time, especially within the decentralized world of crypto. Just this past month we've seen increase volume from Binance Smart Chain and the new Badger Bridge at BadgerDAO. Hopefully that momentum will continue.

I earn around 800 USD per month per node, mainly paid in BTC (so dependent on the USD/BTC exchange rate, but I keep my earnings in BTC anyway). This month we should see more per node, likely 1000 USD (assuming the price of BTC stays around 55k USD or so), as volumes are rising.

It costs around 85k USD to run a Ren node at today's prices (one time expense), as you will need 100k REN tokens (much cheaper than a month ago, more expensive than a year ago). Those REN tokens are the stake you lose if your node does anything malicious. If you assume 1k USD per month in interest earned, that's around 14% per year. If you want to stop operating a node you can, but it takes about a month to decommission your node and get access to your REN tokens (which you can then sell if you like). I believe REN is massively undervalued if they can continue to be at the center of cross chain asset movement. This is a high risk project, however, and who knows how the space will develop.
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HomerJ
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by HomerJ »

JonnyDVM wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 8:53 pm
HomerJ wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 2:44 pm
telemark wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 2:20 pmthen are surprised and sometimes annoyed to find that there is little interest in speculating on new things. Do they even look at the wiki? Is this the kind of due diligence they do on their investments?
Heh. Very salient point.

Seriously.
Homer. I only quoted you because I just came across this gem I thought you might enjoy whilst doing a little crypto recon-

“At Walletinvestor.com we predict future values with technical analysis for wide selection of digital coins like Ren. If you are looking for virtual currencies with good return, REN can be a profitable investment option. ... With a 5-year investment, the revenue is expected to be around +709.64%.”

700%!!!!!!!! :greedy :moneybag :greedy :moneybag
I like the false precision of the extra .64.

Our crypto-proponents should go to THAT site... I bet they would be treated as conquering gods there.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
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HomerJ
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by HomerJ »

Prahasaurus wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 11:31 pmIt costs around 85k USD to run a Ren node at today's prices (one time expense), as you will need 100k REN tokens (much cheaper than a month ago, more expensive than a year ago). Those REN tokens are the stake you lose if your node does anything malicious. If you assume 1k USD per month in interest earned, that's around 14% per year. If you want to stop operating a node you can, but it takes about a month to decommission your node and get access to your REN tokens (which you can then sell if you like).
You realize REN dropped in price -12.46% today, right? That's a one-day drop. The price was $99,000 yesterday for 100k REN.

You always bring up the amazing interest rate you are getting, and you always compare it to savings account.

But anyone who put in $99,000 yesterday, hoping to make 12% a year, just lost 12.5% on the first day, and their $99,000 is now only worth $86,000.

This is the risk. (And it takes a month to get your money out... Nice)

There is no free lunch. You can talk about double-digit interest rates, but stop comparing them to savings accounts, and please point out the actual risks, not a just a throwaway line at the end about "this is risky".

Someone who "invested" in a REN node at the top back on February 19th has lost 53% of their money in less than 3 months. 100k REN cost them $185,000, and today it's only worth $86,000.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Prahasaurus
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Prahasaurus »

HomerJ wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 1:03 am
Prahasaurus wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 11:31 pmIt costs around 85k USD to run a Ren node at today's prices (one time expense), as you will need 100k REN tokens (much cheaper than a month ago, more expensive than a year ago). Those REN tokens are the stake you lose if your node does anything malicious. If you assume 1k USD per month in interest earned, that's around 14% per year. If you want to stop operating a node you can, but it takes about a month to decommission your node and get access to your REN tokens (which you can then sell if you like).
You realize REN dropped in price -12.46% today, right? That's a one-day drop. The price was $99,000 yesterday for 100 REN.

You always bring up the amazing interest rate you are getting, and you always compare it to savings account.

But anyone who put in $99,000 yesterday, hoping to make 12% a year, just lost 12.5% on the first day, and their $99,000 is now only worth $86,000.

This is the risk. (And it takes a month to get your money out... Nice)

There is no free lunch. You can talk about double-digit interest rates, but stop comparing them to savings accounts, and please point out the actual risks, not a just a throwaway line at the end about "this is risky".

Someone who "invested" in a REN node at the top back on February 19th has lost 53% of their money in less than 3 months. 100 REN cost them $185,000, and today it's only worth $86,000.
LOL. You are very selective with your timeframes! Zoom out. I told you I started with Ren last year. Interesting you didn't pick May 2020 as your starting point. I wonder why? Maybe because the 1-year return is over 1090%?
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HomerJ
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by HomerJ »

Prahasaurus wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 1:12 am
HomerJ wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 1:03 am
Prahasaurus wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 11:31 pmIt costs around 85k USD to run a Ren node at today's prices (one time expense), as you will need 100k REN tokens (much cheaper than a month ago, more expensive than a year ago). Those REN tokens are the stake you lose if your node does anything malicious. If you assume 1k USD per month in interest earned, that's around 14% per year. If you want to stop operating a node you can, but it takes about a month to decommission your node and get access to your REN tokens (which you can then sell if you like).
You realize REN dropped in price -12.46% today, right? That's a one-day drop. The price was $99,000 yesterday for 100 REN.

You always bring up the amazing interest rate you are getting, and you always compare it to savings account.

But anyone who put in $99,000 yesterday, hoping to make 12% a year, just lost 12.5% on the first day, and their $99,000 is now only worth $86,000.

This is the risk. (And it takes a month to get your money out... Nice)

There is no free lunch. You can talk about double-digit interest rates, but stop comparing them to savings accounts, and please point out the actual risks, not a just a throwaway line at the end about "this is risky".

Someone who "invested" in a REN node at the top back on February 19th has lost 53% of their money in less than 3 months. 100 REN cost them $185,000, and today it's only worth $86,000.
LOL. You are very selective with your timeframes! Zoom out. I told you I started with Ren last year. Interesting you didn't pick May 2020 as your starting point. I wonder why? Maybe because the 1-year return is over 1090%?
You're telling others to invest today. They can't invest last year.

I'm not saying you can't make money in crypto. I'm saying it's risky as hell, and you keep comparing the interest you can get from these risky investments to FDIC savings accounts. Stop doing that please.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Prahasaurus »

HomerJ wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 1:17 am
Prahasaurus wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 1:12 am
HomerJ wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 1:03 am
Prahasaurus wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 11:31 pmIt costs around 85k USD to run a Ren node at today's prices (one time expense), as you will need 100k REN tokens (much cheaper than a month ago, more expensive than a year ago). Those REN tokens are the stake you lose if your node does anything malicious. If you assume 1k USD per month in interest earned, that's around 14% per year. If you want to stop operating a node you can, but it takes about a month to decommission your node and get access to your REN tokens (which you can then sell if you like).
You realize REN dropped in price -12.46% today, right? That's a one-day drop. The price was $99,000 yesterday for 100 REN.

You always bring up the amazing interest rate you are getting, and you always compare it to savings account.

But anyone who put in $99,000 yesterday, hoping to make 12% a year, just lost 12.5% on the first day, and their $99,000 is now only worth $86,000.

This is the risk. (And it takes a month to get your money out... Nice)

There is no free lunch. You can talk about double-digit interest rates, but stop comparing them to savings accounts, and please point out the actual risks, not a just a throwaway line at the end about "this is risky".

Someone who "invested" in a REN node at the top back on February 19th has lost 53% of their money in less than 3 months. 100 REN cost them $185,000, and today it's only worth $86,000.
LOL. You are very selective with your timeframes! Zoom out. I told you I started with Ren last year. Interesting you didn't pick May 2020 as your starting point. I wonder why? Maybe because the 1-year return is over 1090%?
You're telling others to invest today. They can't invest last year.

I'm not saying you can't make money in crypto. I'm saying it's risky as hell, and you keep comparing the interest you can get from these risky investments to FDIC savings accounts. Stop doing that please.
I just posted that my recommendation is 80% ETH, 20% BTC, maybe a small % in smaller caps. And crypto should be a small % of your total portfolio. I believe I said 5% makes sense.

Even my allocation to Ren is quite small within my crypto portfolio, and I'm heavily involved in the project! It's a high risk, high return asset, and should never be a substantial part of anyone's portfolio in my opinion. As I also mentioned recently, I have been selling some of my smaller caps to take profits and reduce portfolio risk. ETH and BTC are by far the two largest crypto assets I own, at around 75% of my total portfolio.

Of course crypto is high risk. Nobody has said otherwise.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by HanSolo »

Prahasaurus wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 11:08 pm And sadly, many of the people getting crumbs will defend our current system out of fear and ignorance. That is clearly one takeaway I have from participating in discussions here on crypto. The slave mentality is real...
One takeaway I have from the "discussions here on crypto" is that some people repeatedly and incessantly complain about unconstructive commentary coming from one side only. While such commentaries are, in fact, part of the discussions, the truth is that they've been coming from both sides. Why not take a balanced view?

It should not be considered controversial or wrong that, on a Bogleheads forum, some people simply stick with low-cost index funds and don't have a need for the services currently offered by crypto. That would include myself. It's just a neutral fact, not an insult toward anyone. And it certainly isn't evidence of "fear", "ignorance", "slave mentality", etc. Broadly attaching such labels to people who've been participating "in discussions here on crypto" is a kind of ad hominem.

Rather than making blanket statements about the character of unspecific subsets of people on this forum, as you did above, it would be more constructive to address the specific comments you have issues with.

I quote the below because of its relevance to the topic of this thread (the phenomenon of "crypto mania") and particularly to your above-quoted comment:
telemark wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 2:20 pm It continues to puzzle me that people come to Bogleheads, the one forum least likely to be interested in getting in on the next new thing or even guessing what the NNT is going to be, and then are surprised and sometimes annoyed to find that there is little interest in speculating on new things. Do they even look at the wiki? Is this the kind of due diligence they do on their investments?
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Prahasaurus »

HanSolo wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 2:19 am
Prahasaurus wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 11:08 pm And sadly, many of the people getting crumbs will defend our current system out of fear and ignorance. That is clearly one takeaway I have from participating in discussions here on crypto. The slave mentality is real...
One takeaway I have from the "discussions here on crypto" is that some people repeatedly and incessantly complain about unconstructive commentary coming from one side only. While such commentaries are, in fact, part of the discussions, the truth is that they've been coming from both sides. Why not take a balanced view?

It should not be considered controversial or wrong that, on a Bogleheads forum, some people simply stick with low-cost index funds and don't have a need for the services currently offered by crypto. That would include myself. It's just a neutral fact, not an insult toward anyone. And it certainly isn't evidence of "fear", "ignorance", "slave mentality", etc. Broadly attaching such labels to people who've been participating "in discussions here on crypto" is a kind of ad hominem.

Rather than making blanket statements about the character of unspecific subsets of people on this forum, as you did above, it would be more constructive to address the specific comments you have issues with.

I quote the below because of its relevance to the topic of this thread (the phenomenon of "crypto mania") and particularly to your above-quoted comment:
telemark wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 2:20 pm It continues to puzzle me that people come to Bogleheads, the one forum least likely to be interested in getting in on the next new thing or even guessing what the NNT is going to be, and then are surprised and sometimes annoyed to find that there is little interest in speculating on new things. Do they even look at the wiki? Is this the kind of due diligence they do on their investments?
It continues to puzzle me that the same handful of people who are clearly not interested in crypto continue to post incessantly on threads about crypto, apparently hoping to "save" impressionable Bogleheads from making the mistake of investing in this nascent market. Which, over the past year, has "saved" them from 10x gains. But yes, tomorrow is another day!
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Anon9001 »

Do have to wonder what will happen to cryptocurrency prices if real interest rates go above 0% in USA. Most cryptos are zero yielding like Gold, Silver so most likely they will sell off if real interest rates rise.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by HanSolo »

Prahasaurus wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 2:28 am
HanSolo wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 2:19 am
Prahasaurus wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 11:08 pm And sadly, many of the people getting crumbs will defend our current system out of fear and ignorance. That is clearly one takeaway I have from participating in discussions here on crypto. The slave mentality is real...
One takeaway I have from the "discussions here on crypto" is that some people repeatedly and incessantly complain about unconstructive commentary coming from one side only. While such commentaries are, in fact, part of the discussions, the truth is that they've been coming from both sides. Why not take a balanced view?

It should not be considered controversial or wrong that, on a Bogleheads forum, some people simply stick with low-cost index funds and don't have a need for the services currently offered by crypto. That would include myself. It's just a neutral fact, not an insult toward anyone. And it certainly isn't evidence of "fear", "ignorance", "slave mentality", etc. Broadly attaching such labels to people who've been participating "in discussions here on crypto" is a kind of ad hominem.

Rather than making blanket statements about the character of unspecific subsets of people on this forum, as you did above, it would be more constructive to address the specific comments you have issues with.

I quote the below because of its relevance to the topic of this thread (the phenomenon of "crypto mania") and particularly to your above-quoted comment:
telemark wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 2:20 pm It continues to puzzle me that people come to Bogleheads, the one forum least likely to be interested in getting in on the next new thing or even guessing what the NNT is going to be, and then are surprised and sometimes annoyed to find that there is little interest in speculating on new things. Do they even look at the wiki? Is this the kind of due diligence they do on their investments?
It continues to puzzle me that the same handful of people who are clearly not interested in crypto continue to post incessantly on threads about crypto, apparently hoping to "save" impressionable Bogleheads from making the mistake of investing in this nascent market. Which, over the past year, has "saved" them from 10x gains. But yes, tomorrow is another day!
Past performance does not necessarily indicate future results.

I get that you are puzzled. I'm not puzzled by that. It seems fairly ordinary to me that, on the Bogleheads site, some forum members occasionally inject reminders of Boglehead-type principles when the discussion veers far afield of those principles. That's what's normal on this site.

I hope that addresses your issue. Good day.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Prahasaurus »

HanSolo wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 2:45 am …some forum members occasionally inject reminders…
:D
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by JonnyDVM »

Prahasaurus wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 11:31 pm
JonnyDVM wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 8:53 pm
HomerJ wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 2:44 pm
telemark wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 2:20 pmthen are surprised and sometimes annoyed to find that there is little interest in speculating on new things. Do they even look at the wiki? Is this the kind of due diligence they do on their investments?
Heh. Very salient point.

Seriously.
Homer. I only quoted you because I just came across this gem I thought you might enjoy whilst doing a little crypto recon-

“At Walletinvestor.com we predict future values with technical analysis for wide selection of digital coins like Ren. If you are looking for virtual currencies with good return, REN can be a profitable investment option. ... With a 5-year investment, the revenue is expected to be around +709.64%.”

700%!!!!!!!! :greedy :moneybag :greedy :moneybag
Most of the analysis in crypto is garbage. The vast majority is around technical analysis and other momentum investor tools, which I don't really understand or use (not saying they aren't helpful in some cases, just not my thing).

If you want to talk Ren, I've been running nodes at Ren for almost a year, I participate in governance, I follow the project very closely. I am optimistic about their future, but it's a highly speculative project. I don't think you'll have an intelligent discussion here on Ren, sadly.

As to revenue growth, Ren is very much linked to partner integrations. And that takes time, especially within the decentralized world of crypto. Just this past month we've seen increase volume from Binance Smart Chain and the new Badger Bridge at BadgerDAO. Hopefully that momentum will continue.

I earn around 800 USD per month per node, mainly paid in BTC (so dependent on the USD/BTC exchange rate, but I keep my earnings in BTC anyway). This month we should see more per node, likely 1000 USD (assuming the price of BTC stays around 55k USD or so), as volumes are rising.

It costs around 85k USD to run a Ren node at today's prices (one time expense), as you will need 100k REN tokens (much cheaper than a month ago, more expensive than a year ago). Those REN tokens are the stake you lose if your node does anything malicious. If you assume 1k USD per month in interest earned, that's around 14% per year. If you want to stop operating a node you can, but it takes about a month to decommission your node and get access to your REN tokens (which you can then sell if you like). I believe REN is massively undervalued if they can continue to be at the center of cross chain asset movement. This is a high risk project, however, and who knows how the space will develop.
Perfect. That’s what I’m looking for. A good get rich quick scheme. The crypto universe has become the best place to find that I’ve decided.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by dt123 »

Prahasaurus wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 2:28 am
HanSolo wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 2:19 am
Prahasaurus wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 11:08 pm And sadly, many of the people getting crumbs will defend our current system out of fear and ignorance. That is clearly one takeaway I have from participating in discussions here on crypto. The slave mentality is real...
One takeaway I have from the "discussions here on crypto" is that some people repeatedly and incessantly complain about unconstructive commentary coming from one side only. While such commentaries are, in fact, part of the discussions, the truth is that they've been coming from both sides. Why not take a balanced view?

It should not be considered controversial or wrong that, on a Bogleheads forum, some people simply stick with low-cost index funds and don't have a need for the services currently offered by crypto. That would include myself. It's just a neutral fact, not an insult toward anyone. And it certainly isn't evidence of "fear", "ignorance", "slave mentality", etc. Broadly attaching such labels to people who've been participating "in discussions here on crypto" is a kind of ad hominem.

Rather than making blanket statements about the character of unspecific subsets of people on this forum, as you did above, it would be more constructive to address the specific comments you have issues with.

I quote the below because of its relevance to the topic of this thread (the phenomenon of "crypto mania") and particularly to your above-quoted comment:
telemark wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 2:20 pm It continues to puzzle me that people come to Bogleheads, the one forum least likely to be interested in getting in on the next new thing or even guessing what the NNT is going to be, and then are surprised and sometimes annoyed to find that there is little interest in speculating on new things. Do they even look at the wiki? Is this the kind of due diligence they do on their investments?
It continues to puzzle me that the same handful of people who are clearly not interested in crypto continue to post incessantly on threads about crypto, apparently hoping to "save" impressionable Bogleheads from making the mistake of investing in this nascent market. Which, over the past year, has "saved" them from 10x gains. But yes, tomorrow is another day!
Wow. One of the members most vehement about touting a very unbogle investment takes umbrage that other members openly disagree with him/her. Just like many reddit posters during the GME pump were banned for saying anything negative about GME. Pot-kettle-black.

It's true that impressionable, less-experienced investors might see the voluminous pro-crypto posts on bogleheads and assume it to have credibility here that it does not have. There's nothing wrong with pointing out, amid all the hype, that crypto prices are easily manipulated by whales behind the scenes, through spoofing, wash sales, and other maneuvers that would be illegal in any regulated financial market, making for a very unbalanced playing field. What motivation do the pro-crypto posters have for keeping that quiet?
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by LadyGeek »

As a reminder, opposing points of view are welcome. Please remove the emotion from your post and state your concerns in a civil, factual manner.

Also - Discussions regarding legality, government regulation, conspiracy theory, and other related aspects are off-topic. Please stay focused on investing.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Hustlinghustling »

HomerJ wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 11:26 am
Hustlinghustling wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 3:35 am
HomerJ wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 10:15 pm
LOL... Normal banks wouldn't need anyone at a desk approving loans either if the people who wanted to borrow money would put down 2x the loan amount as collateral.
Which is it? That crypto lending is a risky, leveraged bubble with easy loans put into more crypto about to burst any moment now? Or an over-collateralized arrangement that's so excessive in its caution that banks wouldn't even have to worry about credit?

And you always conveniently forget with the leverage talk to consider how much of these borrowed positions are in fact putting on the trade whose strategy is betting against the crypto market, not enriching it: SHORTSELLING a specific crypto currency
Okay, how much of the borrowed money is shorting? I don't conveniently forget. I don't know. What are the numbers and where are you getting them?
It's not a question of how much of the borrowed money is going to shorting.

It's understanding that borrowing itself is an essential step to go short at all. Once seen that way, the overcollateralization and high rates makes a lot more sense. Right now, people are viewing it solely in the narrow view they understand as borrowing for consumer debt. Why would anyone pay 2x collateral just to borrow at exorbitant rates - traditionally, they wouldn't borrow at all.

When you understand there's huge demand for trading exposure, it makes more sense.

Anyone wanting to go short a cryptocurrency (or stock) must borrow it. You can't sell something you don't own otherwise. Even if you choose to go short through a put option or a short futures contract, well then the writer of that contract will be the one borrowing the cryptocurrency to hedge the short contract written for you. End of the day, short interest leads to crypto borrowing. It is an essential step in providing that exposure.

Again, this structure is exactly the same as in the stock short selling market.
Last edited by Hustlinghustling on Tue May 11, 2021 8:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Gadget »

HomerJ wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 1:03 am
Prahasaurus wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 11:31 pmIt costs around 85k USD to run a Ren node at today's prices (one time expense), as you will need 100k REN tokens (much cheaper than a month ago, more expensive than a year ago). Those REN tokens are the stake you lose if your node does anything malicious. If you assume 1k USD per month in interest earned, that's around 14% per year. If you want to stop operating a node you can, but it takes about a month to decommission your node and get access to your REN tokens (which you can then sell if you like).
You realize REN dropped in price -12.46% today, right? That's a one-day drop. The price was $99,000 yesterday for 100k REN.

You always bring up the amazing interest rate you are getting, and you always compare it to savings account.

But anyone who put in $99,000 yesterday, hoping to make 12% a year, just lost 12.5% on the first day, and their $99,000 is now only worth $86,000.

This is the risk. (And it takes a month to get your money out... Nice)

There is no free lunch. You can talk about double-digit interest rates, but stop comparing them to savings accounts, and please point out the actual risks, not a just a throwaway line at the end about "this is risky".

Someone who "invested" in a REN node at the top back on February 19th has lost 53% of their money in less than 3 months. 100k REN cost them $185,000, and today it's only worth $86,000.
This is just investing. Most bogleheads don't notice volatility because smartly investing in index funds shields them from the volatile shenanigans of the stock market.

Take for example The Trade Desk (TTD). It crashed 25% yesterday after crushing revenue and earnings per share. Revenue was up 37% on the year, and $1.41 EPS was 60 cents above estimates. Most bogleheads should have no issue with TTD; it's a company that is used by digital ad buyers to purchase ads across different formats and devices. Why did it crash, along with MGNI and PUBM across the entire space? Supposedly because inflation fears make growth stocks not as valuable as value stocks. But that transition has already been happening for months now (growth has been getting crushed, just look at ARKK funds), so what was it about TTD's earnings yesterday that made it crash? If I was investing in individual stocks instead of VTI, I'd say TTD owners should hold. It's still a great company crushing revenues and revenue estimates.

You can't buy index funds in the crypto world. Even advocates like Prahasaurus will tell you that too many crypto projects are scams. You don't want to own those. Since the space is unregulated, you're going to keep getting scams like SHIB, MOON, #$!Rocket. It's much harder to get a scam company in the VTI index with all the US regulations. The $100 million deli in New Jersey won't make it into VTI, but it would make it into a crypto index. So part of the volatility in crypto is like owning individual stocks. Amazon had multiple 50+% drawdowns during its massive runup over the years too. You either have to hold them because you believe in the investment, or you just stick with the much less risky VTI/VXUS/BND portfolio.

No one on this board is advocating against standard index funds for most of your holdings. We're discussing pros and cons of a new space, that now has a 2% global market cap.

If you want to claim that the standard risk adverse boglehead heavily in bonds shouldn't be in the crypto space, I'll agree with that. But for those with more risk tolerance or more working years, we're just trying to come up with an investment plan and path forward in the new crypto world. I happen to love the vision and path forward for ETH, but I fully realize it could all go to zero tomorrow.

We stay and discuss here with all the crypto detractors because this website has some of the most rational and best investors on it. If we wanted to hear all sunshine and rainbows, we'd stay on reddit where 50% of posts are a shill about how XYZ coin will rocket to some insane value. I believe Prahasaurus (likely the biggest crypto proponent on this site) has said most bogleheads shouldn't invest more than 5% in crypto. That's a little more than double its market cap. Most people on reddit, and what feels like half of all new hires I work with under 25 are more like 100% invested in crypto.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by txhill »

Prahasaurus wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 2:28 am
HanSolo wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 2:19 am I quote the below because of its relevance to the topic of this thread (the phenomenon of "crypto mania") and particularly to your above-quoted comment:
telemark wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 2:20 pm It continues to puzzle me that people come to Bogleheads, the one forum least likely to be interested in getting in on the next new thing or even guessing what the NNT is going to be, and then are surprised and sometimes annoyed to find that there is little interest in speculating on new things. Do they even look at the wiki? Is this the kind of due diligence they do on their investments?
It continues to puzzle me that the same handful of people who are clearly not interested in crypto continue to post incessantly on threads about crypto, apparently hoping to "save" impressionable Bogleheads from making the mistake of investing in this nascent market. Which, over the past year, has "saved" them from 10x gains. But yes, tomorrow is another day!
I for one really appreciate Prahasaurus's input on the forum. I'm not a true Boglehead (I have skipped on bonds for a decade and also tilted toward tech with 20% of portfolio) but I did listen to Bogle more than most Bogleheads in some ways (I went VOO and not VT). I thought before that the macro environment was unfriendly to a 3-fund portfolio (which only really made sense for someone on the very verge of retirement or in retirement, and NOT for anyone in a wealth-generating phase of life). And I guess I was lucky (and right).

And now I think the macro environment has gotten even worse for the standard 3-fund portfolio, especially since the pandemic began. In some ways crypto provides an answer--bitcoin as an answer to the debasement of fiat currency (which governments seem all but forced to do) and ethereum as the absolutely fastest growing platform for new applications. I'm not informed enough on other crypto tokens to understand all their use case/values yet but Praha is helping a lot with that.

Basically, I think the Boglehead 3-fund portfolio is a fine tool for most investors but it is not the end-all-be-all of investing forever. There are macro trends that could mean some changes are needed to the 3-fund portfolio approach. Maybe no change will be necessary today or even for a very long time, but don't we want to keep an eye on such possible trends? I think so, simply because I see no way that principles derived from the mid/late 20th century with a U.S.-centric and dollar-centric view will have continued application throughout all of time.

Also as I have repeated many times, obviously crypto is a risky space and should only be approached with caution, and only with money that someone is able and willing to lose. Maybe I should just add that last line to my signature since I have to repeat it so often...
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by flyfishers83 »

It's been very interesting to read the evolution of some of these posts over the last month or so. Also very interesting to see the evolution of viewpoints in real time.

One issue I have that keeps popping up is the identification of "obvious scams". Some of these "obvious scams" are really well known, yet they persist and even have fantastic runs in value. For somebody evaluating the space, that's a bit scary. Even if I don't buy any of these so called scams, I have to believe that their scaminess infects other coins/projects. However, there's really no way for me to make that assessment. So, the choice is to either let that push me to the sidelines or pinch my noise and try not to notice the scam stench. That's a tough thing to do when you are viewing as an investment vs. a lottery ticket.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by watchnerd »

dt123 wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 7:18 am There's nothing wrong with pointing out, amid all the hype, that crypto prices are easily manipulated by whales behind the scenes, through spoofing, wash sales, and other maneuvers that would be illegal in any regulated financial market, making for a very unbalanced playing field. What motivation do the pro-crypto posters have for keeping that quiet?
It should be discussed.

Aside from all the issues you mentioned, there is the even more serious issue of rug pulls.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by JonnyDVM »

watchnerd wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 9:33 am
dt123 wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 7:18 am There's nothing wrong with pointing out, amid all the hype, that crypto prices are easily manipulated by whales behind the scenes, through spoofing, wash sales, and other maneuvers that would be illegal in any regulated financial market, making for a very unbalanced playing field. What motivation do the pro-crypto posters have for keeping that quiet?
It should be discussed.

Aside from all the issues you mentioned, there is the even more serious issue of rug pulls.
Guys this is the Wild West, except there’s no Marshall. Crypto checks all the boxes for investments that end in disaster.

Unregulated- check
Speculative- check
Outsized gains promised- check
People don’t understand what’s they’re buying- check
Significant leverage- check
Underlying fraud- check
Media hype- check

I love this! It’s exhilarating to be involved.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Blueskies123 »

watchnerd wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 9:33 am
dt123 wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 7:18 am There's nothing wrong with pointing out, amid all the hype, that crypto prices are easily manipulated by whales behind the scenes, through spoofing, wash sales, and other maneuvers that would be illegal in any regulated financial market, making for a very unbalanced playing field. What motivation do the pro-crypto posters have for keeping that quiet?
It should be discussed.

Aside from all the issues you mentioned, there is the even more serious issue of rug pulls.
If you are curious how much crypto is held by whales then follow Whale Alert on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/whale_alert?ref_src ... r%5Eauthor
If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by watchnerd »

JonnyDVM wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 9:45 am Guys this is the Wild West, except there’s no Marshall. Crypto checks all the boxes for investments that end in disaster.

Unregulated- check
Speculative- check
Outsized gains promised- check
People don’t understand what’s they’re buying- check
Significant leverage- check
Underlying fraud- check
Media hype- check

I love this! It’s exhilarating to be involved.
Indeed.

Participating in history is both thrilling and educational, but the tuition may expensive.

I like the article about the OG commodities trader being able to dust off his old tricks that either aren't effective anymore or are illegal in more mature markets.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by banook »

rhoms33 wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 7:49 pm
txhill wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 7:09 pm
mikejuss wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 6:59 pm What is the forum's consensus on the safest way to buy cryptocurrency? Coinbase, Gemini, Robinhood?
I believe consensus will be NOT Robinhood. Personally I have had good experiences with Coinbase Pro and Gemini Active Trader, both have low fees. Gemini appears to be the most regulated exchange, Coinbase is the biggest and also a public company. So both have safety benefits. Robin Hood will not let you transfer off their platform and when volume is high they have a history of shutting down trades. So use RH with caution.
Echo this. Do not use RH. Not your keys, not your coins.

I have used Gemini and Coinbase. Pro and active trader as the fees are lower. Have made purchases and transfers to/from both without issue.
I use Coinbase (for BTC/ETH) and Daedalus specifically for Cardano (ADA). I do keep some BTC offline in a hard wallet. I would recommend understanding what a hard wallet is for those wanting to buy/invest/trade crypto, the mechanics of moving crypto between wallets and platforms. Pick 1 or 2 to start. I recommend starting with small amounts. I recommend learning as you go. I would also recommend that you are/would be comfortable with whatever amounts you buy/invest/trade you be ok with potentially never having access to again, i.e. losing it all. There are a number of good resources here on BH and there are many more resources out there. I have enjoyed learning, and continue to learn, perhaps others will too. For the skeptics, failures are a type of learning, sometimes the most important type of learning.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by watchnerd »

Blueskies123 wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 9:50 am

If you are curious how much crypto is held by whales then follow Whale Alert on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/whale_alert?ref_src ... r%5Eauthor
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by watchnerd »

banook wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 10:08 am I use Coinbase (for BTC/ETH) and Daedalus specifically for Cardano (ADA). I do keep some BTC offline in a hard wallet. I would recommend understanding what a hard wallet is for those wanting to buy/invest/trade crypto, the mechanics of moving crypto between wallets and platforms. Pick 1 or 2 to start. I recommend starting with small amounts. I recommend learning as you go. I would also recommend that you are/would be comfortable with whatever amounts you buy/invest/trade you be ok with potentially never having access to again, i.e. losing it all. There are a number of good resources here on BH and there are many more resources out there. I have enjoyed learning, and continue to learn, perhaps others will too. For the skeptics, failures are a type of learning, sometimes the most important type of learning.
I'm using MetaMask right now.

Do you have a hard wallet you recommend?

I also get concerned about electro magnetic loss.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by HomerJ »

Gadget wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 8:36 am
HomerJ wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 1:03 am
Prahasaurus wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 11:31 pmIt costs around 85k USD to run a Ren node at today's prices (one time expense), as you will need 100k REN tokens (much cheaper than a month ago, more expensive than a year ago). Those REN tokens are the stake you lose if your node does anything malicious. If you assume 1k USD per month in interest earned, that's around 14% per year. If you want to stop operating a node you can, but it takes about a month to decommission your node and get access to your REN tokens (which you can then sell if you like).
You realize REN dropped in price -12.46% today, right? That's a one-day drop. The price was $99,000 yesterday for 100k REN.

You always bring up the amazing interest rate you are getting, and you always compare it to savings account.

But anyone who put in $99,000 yesterday, hoping to make 12% a year, just lost 12.5% on the first day, and their $99,000 is now only worth $86,000.

This is the risk. (And it takes a month to get your money out... Nice)

There is no free lunch. You can talk about double-digit interest rates, but stop comparing them to savings accounts, and please point out the actual risks, not a just a throwaway line at the end about "this is risky".

Someone who "invested" in a REN node at the top back on February 19th has lost 53% of their money in less than 3 months. 100k REN cost them $185,000, and today it's only worth $86,000.
This is just investing. Most bogleheads don't notice volatility because smartly investing in index funds shields them from the volatile shenanigans of the stock market.

Take for example The Trade Desk (TTD). It crashed 25% yesterday after crushing revenue and earnings per share. Revenue was up 37% on the year, and $1.41 EPS was 60 cents above estimates. Most bogleheads should have no issue with TTD; it's a company that is used by digital ad buyers to purchase ads across different formats and devices. Why did it crash, along with MGNI and PUBM across the entire space? Supposedly because inflation fears make growth stocks not as valuable as value stocks. But that transition has already been happening for months now (growth has been getting crushed, just look at ARKK funds), so what was it about TTD's earnings yesterday that made it crash? If I was investing in individual stocks instead of VTI, I'd say TTD owners should hold. It's still a great company crushing revenues and revenue estimates.

You can't buy index funds in the crypto world. Even advocates like Prahasaurus will tell you that too many crypto projects are scams. You don't want to own those. Since the space is unregulated, you're going to keep getting scams like SHIB, MOON, #$!Rocket. It's much harder to get a scam company in the VTI index with all the US regulations. The $100 million deli in New Jersey won't make it into VTI, but it would make it into a crypto index. So part of the volatility in crypto is like owning individual stocks. Amazon had multiple 50+% drawdowns during its massive runup over the years too. You either have to hold them because you believe in the investment, or you just stick with the much less risky VTI/VXUS/BND portfolio.
My issue specifically is comments where Prah and others state "Why keep your money in 0.01% bank accounts when you can get 14% from crypto!?"

If they were comparing investing in REN nodes to individual stock selections in a completely unregulated marketplace, and mention the actual large single-day drops, and the potential for serious long-term losses, I wouldn't feel the need to interject so often.

You can't write 4 full paragraphs about all the upside potential with numbers and specifics and multiple positive predictions, and then have one line at the end stating "Oh, but don't forget, this stuff is risky".
Last edited by HomerJ on Tue May 11, 2021 10:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Crypto mania !

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Gadget wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 8:36 am We stay and discuss here with all the crypto detractors because this website has some of the most rational and best investors on it. If we wanted to hear all sunshine and rainbows, we'd stay on reddit where 50% of posts are a shill about how XYZ coin will rocket to some insane value.
Lot of new posters here only talking about crypto... I don't want this place to turn into reddit.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by banook »

watchnerd wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 10:13 am
I'm using MetaMask right now.

Do you have a hard wallet you recommend?

I also get concerned about electro magnetic loss.
Trezor. I'm not sure if it's ok that we post links: https://trezor.io

In any case, there are other products out there that may be superior. Main point is in learning to move crypto and interaction with the technology. Movement is key to trust - if movement is slow, unreliable, not secure, or expensive - well, that's good information to have. It's easy to blind faith accept/criticize anything without interaction or experience (including index funds - which have almost no interaction haha), but that feedback may not be as useful. So my recommendation is to play/learn (with what you can absolutely afford to lose) in this sandbox if this is your first foray - it sounds like you can lose a lot more than I can, but I still think it's good to play. That way, you'll be better off if it fails or succeeds. I am learning everyday.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by mikejuss »

Would it be possible to create a crypto index fund? :?:
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by Prahasaurus »

HomerJ wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 10:29 am
Gadget wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 8:36 am
HomerJ wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 1:03 am
Prahasaurus wrote: Mon May 10, 2021 11:31 pmIt costs around 85k USD to run a Ren node at today's prices (one time expense), as you will need 100k REN tokens (much cheaper than a month ago, more expensive than a year ago). Those REN tokens are the stake you lose if your node does anything malicious. If you assume 1k USD per month in interest earned, that's around 14% per year. If you want to stop operating a node you can, but it takes about a month to decommission your node and get access to your REN tokens (which you can then sell if you like).
You realize REN dropped in price -12.46% today, right? That's a one-day drop. The price was $99,000 yesterday for 100k REN.

You always bring up the amazing interest rate you are getting, and you always compare it to savings account.

But anyone who put in $99,000 yesterday, hoping to make 12% a year, just lost 12.5% on the first day, and their $99,000 is now only worth $86,000.

This is the risk. (And it takes a month to get your money out... Nice)

There is no free lunch. You can talk about double-digit interest rates, but stop comparing them to savings accounts, and please point out the actual risks, not a just a throwaway line at the end about "this is risky".

Someone who "invested" in a REN node at the top back on February 19th has lost 53% of their money in less than 3 months. 100k REN cost them $185,000, and today it's only worth $86,000.
This is just investing. Most bogleheads don't notice volatility because smartly investing in index funds shields them from the volatile shenanigans of the stock market.

Take for example The Trade Desk (TTD). It crashed 25% yesterday after crushing revenue and earnings per share. Revenue was up 37% on the year, and $1.41 EPS was 60 cents above estimates. Most bogleheads should have no issue with TTD; it's a company that is used by digital ad buyers to purchase ads across different formats and devices. Why did it crash, along with MGNI and PUBM across the entire space? Supposedly because inflation fears make growth stocks not as valuable as value stocks. But that transition has already been happening for months now (growth has been getting crushed, just look at ARKK funds), so what was it about TTD's earnings yesterday that made it crash? If I was investing in individual stocks instead of VTI, I'd say TTD owners should hold. It's still a great company crushing revenues and revenue estimates.

You can't buy index funds in the crypto world. Even advocates like Prahasaurus will tell you that too many crypto projects are scams. You don't want to own those. Since the space is unregulated, you're going to keep getting scams like SHIB, MOON, #$!Rocket. It's much harder to get a scam company in the VTI index with all the US regulations. The $100 million deli in New Jersey won't make it into VTI, but it would make it into a crypto index. So part of the volatility in crypto is like owning individual stocks. Amazon had multiple 50+% drawdowns during its massive runup over the years too. You either have to hold them because you believe in the investment, or you just stick with the much less risky VTI/VXUS/BND portfolio.
My issue specifically is comments where Prah and others state "Why keep your money in 0.01% bank accounts when you can get 14% from crypto!?"

If they were comparing investing in REN nodes to individual stock selections in a completely unregulated marketplace, and mention the actual large single-day drops, and the potential for serious long-term losses, I wouldn't feel the need to interject so often.
I don't understand how this is still so difficult, and why you are misrepresenting what I've written multiple times. You have mixed together two completely different topics: operating a Ren node, and earning interest at Aave with USDC. Either you are doing this on purpose or you don't understand the difference. So let me explain one more time:

On Aave, you can earn a variable rate on your dollar deposits (actually stablecoin deposits like DAI or USDC), and that rate is around 8-10%. There is no currency risk when your money is in USDC or DAI, it's always a dollar. You should have no worries that your investment in DAI will rise or fall versus the dollar, as it's always linked to the US dollar. It's a stablecoin, it's stable. 1 USD = 1 DAI = 1 USDC. So at Aave, with DAI or USDC (i.e. US dollars), you can earn around 8-10%.

Ren, on the other hand, is a very risky project that has seen massive returns over the past year. Ren is up 1000% from 12 months ago. However, REN (the token) does carry a lot of risk, similar to a high growth stock. If you operate a node - which means you have locked 100k REN in your node - you earn fees from managing that node and "staking" your REN to serve as a bond on the network. At current payouts, that is equivalent to around 14% APY, assuming you buy your REN today. So the good news is you have both a high growth asset (REN) that also pays a dividend at around 14% or so. So you can benefit from both capital appreciation and monthly de facto dividends, based on monthly volume going through Ren nodes. However, with REN, there is no guarantee the price of REN will go up! It can fall as well, and has fallen on many occasions during the past 12 months. Yes, it's up 1000%, but it hasn't been a straight line.... So REN is similar to a high growth stock that pays a dividend.

I am not telling anyone they can purchase REN, earn 14%, and also have no risk! You made that up. While the dividend portion of REN has been fairly stable and should remain so at least short term, capital appreciation has not been stable, and I have no idea where REN will be tomorrow or in 6 months. Maybe a lot higher and maybe zero, no clue. Unlike USDC! Unlike DAI!

I am telling people they can get around 8-10% on their dollars at AAVE if they convert their dollars to a stablecoin like DAI or USDC. Coinbase allows for a 1:1 conversion between USDC and US dollars. So link your bank, transfer dollars to Coinbase, convert to USDC, then go to AAVE and earn 8-10%.

These are two completely different things, two very different investments. I have been very clear about that from the beginning. You are again arguing with ghosts if you are "correcting" what you think I've written, but actually never wrote.
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Re: Crypto mania !

Post by watchnerd »

mikejuss wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 10:52 am Would it be possible to create a crypto index fund? :?:
That's what I've tried to do with my cap weighted holdings. A DIY index.

If you're asking if it's possible to create an ETF of the broad crypto market, I think it gets hard once you get past the big two of BTC and ETH.

The volatility of the mid-cap, small-cap, and micro-cap crypto assets is crazy high and it trades 24x7.

BTC and ETH, though, represent about 60% of the market cap between the two of them. It's very top heavy, and then with a very long tail.
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