Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
- Yesterdaysnews
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Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
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I have to admit I’m tempted to nibble.... they are the leader in their industry and it doesn’t seem like crypto is going anywhere.
I have to admit I’m tempted to nibble.... they are the leader in their industry and it doesn’t seem like crypto is going anywhere.
- arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
You might want to read Larry Swedroe's book "Rational Investing in Irrational Times". It covers 52 different types of mistakes common to investors.
If you read it, you'll realize you're asking how to go about making Mistake 51 "Do You Chase the IPO Dream?"
In this chapter Larry goes through all the evidence that picking an IPO is the winning strategy...for the underwriters on Wall Street who generate great fee income and insiders who sell their shares on unwitting retail investors. The retail investors (OP) are buying lottery tickets.
The evidence of underperformance? Paraphrasing from Larry's Book:
Journal of Finance 1995. Study covering 1970-1990 looked at returns from buying every IPO at the end of the first day's closing price and holding for 5 years. The return was just 5% per year and it was 7% LESS than a benchmark of companies of similar market cap.
Wall Street Journal Feb 24, 1999. U. of Florida prof. Jay Ritter looked at 1006 IPOs that raised $20 mil 1988-1993. The median IPO underperformed the Russell 3000 by 30% 3 years after going public and 46% of IPOs produced negative returns.
Fortune Nov 23, 1998. How did IPOs issued in 1993 do through 1998? The average IPO returned 1/3rd as much as the S&P500 index. 1/2 traded below the offering price. 1/3rd were down over 50%.
Wall Street Journal March 30, 1999. U.S. Bancorp Pier Jaffray study looked at May 1988 - July 1998 (4900 IPOs). The outcome? Less than 1/3rd were above the IPO price, 1/3rd weren't even trading anymore due to bankruptcy, or were acquired or no longer trading in an active market.
And on and on for another four pages. The persistent underperformance continues.
Larry writes:
guess this time wasn't different:
If you read it, you'll realize you're asking how to go about making Mistake 51 "Do You Chase the IPO Dream?"
In this chapter Larry goes through all the evidence that picking an IPO is the winning strategy...for the underwriters on Wall Street who generate great fee income and insiders who sell their shares on unwitting retail investors. The retail investors (OP) are buying lottery tickets.
The evidence of underperformance? Paraphrasing from Larry's Book:
Journal of Finance 1995. Study covering 1970-1990 looked at returns from buying every IPO at the end of the first day's closing price and holding for 5 years. The return was just 5% per year and it was 7% LESS than a benchmark of companies of similar market cap.
Wall Street Journal Feb 24, 1999. U. of Florida prof. Jay Ritter looked at 1006 IPOs that raised $20 mil 1988-1993. The median IPO underperformed the Russell 3000 by 30% 3 years after going public and 46% of IPOs produced negative returns.
Fortune Nov 23, 1998. How did IPOs issued in 1993 do through 1998? The average IPO returned 1/3rd as much as the S&P500 index. 1/2 traded below the offering price. 1/3rd were down over 50%.
Wall Street Journal March 30, 1999. U.S. Bancorp Pier Jaffray study looked at May 1988 - July 1998 (4900 IPOs). The outcome? Less than 1/3rd were above the IPO price, 1/3rd weren't even trading anymore due to bankruptcy, or were acquired or no longer trading in an active market.
And on and on for another four pages. The persistent underperformance continues.
Larry writes:
of course, this time's different, right?In the face of this poor performance, why do investors continue to chase the latest IPO? There are two explanations for this seemingly irrational behavior. FIrst, unless an investor happens to read scholarly publications such as the Journal of Finance, he or she is unlikely to be aware of the facts. Second, even when informed, investors often act in what appear to be irrational ways .In this case, it is another example of the triumph of hope over experience. Investors seem to be willing to accept the high probability of low returns in exchange for the small chance of a home run or, possibly even more important, a great story to tell at the next cocktail party.
There is an old saying in sports that sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make. You can avoid the mistake of investing in IPOs by remembering that while IPOs have provided huge profits for the Wall Street firms that market them, they have generated very poor returns for investors.
guess this time wasn't different:
Coinbase debut generates billions of dollars for early backers Union Square and Andreessen Horowitz
source:https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/14/coinbas ... -rich.html
Last edited by arcticpineapplecorp. on Wed Apr 14, 2021 3:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
They are A leader. Binance does more volume reportedly. Uniswap does equivalent volume.Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 3:25 pm I have to admit I’m tempted to nibble.... they are the leader in their industry and it doesn’t seem like crypto is going anywhere.
Looks like biggest listing ever. I don’t think I could buy over $100B valuation and seems it will be considerably higher. I would just buy Ethereum if you want the crypto exposure...
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Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
What price do you think it is going to open? $1k? $2K per share at least?
This could be one of the biggest opens ever. I don't know what the entry level will be.
Good luck to all of those investing in it.
This could be one of the biggest opens ever. I don't know what the entry level will be.
Good luck to all of those investing in it.
Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
It's a really unusual IPO--it's so profitable already and it's in a space that is just exploding with activity. I'd buy it if it comes in at a $100b valuation or lower, but I'm sure it will be much higher than that within nanoseconds of the listing. Beyond that I'd rather just buy BTC or ETH directly. Coinbase is here to stay for sure though, even if they eventually have to reduce what they charge on transaction fees because of increased competition.
I should add that this is the ideal "picks and shovels" investment for those who think of the crypto craze as nothing more than a California gold rush. So even those who are skeptical of cryptocurrencies generally will probably be buying into it too. Demand will be crazy.
One more edit: I have never before been tempted to buy a stock on its IPO day, and in fact I almost always avoid buying individual stocks in favor of index or sector ETFs. The hype around this one really is something.
I should add that this is the ideal "picks and shovels" investment for those who think of the crypto craze as nothing more than a California gold rush. So even those who are skeptical of cryptocurrencies generally will probably be buying into it too. Demand will be crazy.
One more edit: I have never before been tempted to buy a stock on its IPO day, and in fact I almost always avoid buying individual stocks in favor of index or sector ETFs. The hype around this one really is something.
Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
Why wait for the IPO? Tokenized Coinbase shares are already trading on FTX: https://ftx.com/en/trade/CBSE/USD.
There are the haves, have-nots, and have-yachts.
Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
I was about to say that the legality of this method of trading securities surely is questionable. But I see it's not available for US residents perhaps for that very reason.Huygens wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:36 pm Why wait for the IPO? Tokenized Coinbase shares are already trading on FTX: https://ftx.com/en/trade/CBSE/USD.
Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
CBSE (coinbase token) doesn't seem to be avialbe on US version of FTX.Huygens wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:36 pm Why wait for the IPO? Tokenized Coinbase shares are already trading on FTX: https://ftx.com/en/trade/CBSE/USD.
Diversification is protection against ignorance - WB.
Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
Yes, I plan to buy some in the hopes for short term gains...will probably sell the same day....Unless I become a bag holder in which case will hold on to it longer term.
Diversification is protection against ignorance - WB.
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Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
I read a decent article trying to justify the 100 billion valuation.
It was a good read.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortune.co ... rypto/amp/
"To justify that number, the math shows, Coinbase would need to mushroom into the biggest financial exchange in the world.
...
"
It was a good read.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortune.co ... rypto/amp/
"To justify that number, the math shows, Coinbase would need to mushroom into the biggest financial exchange in the world.
...
"
Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
It got a Reference price of $250 per share giving it a valuation of approximately $65B.
https://www.investors.com/news/technolo ... sday-coin/
https://www.investors.com/news/technolo ... sday-coin/
Diversification is protection against ignorance - WB.
Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
Important to note it’s a direct listing not an IPO. Founders can immediately dump their bags on retail with no lockup period. I’d be careful and I’m staying away but good luck.Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 3:25 pm I have to admit I’m tempted to nibble.... they are the leader in their industry and it doesn’t seem like crypto is going anywhere.
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Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
I'm selling all my NFTs, GME stock, DogeCoin, MOON ETF and putting it all in CoinBase !
Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
Interesting read. I clearly don't know how to value an IPO so I'll just sit this one out.runninginvestor wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:57 pm I read a decent article trying to justify the 100 billion valuation.
It was a good read.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortune.co ... rypto/amp/
"To justify that number, the math shows, Coinbase would need to mushroom into the biggest financial exchange in the world.
...
"
- AerialWombat
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Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
There appears to be a disconnect between this statement and your username.SlowMovingInvestor wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 5:30 pm I'm selling all my NFTs, GME stock, DogeCoin, MOON ETF and putting it all in CoinBase !
This post is a work of fiction. Any similarity to real financial advice is purely coincidental.
Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
I am no analyst but in reading...most (nearly all?) of their revenue is from fees from folks trading bitcoin/ether which makes their revenue nearly completely dependent on them? we all know how volatile BC is (dropped 75% a few years ago?) so that dependence is a huge Achilles heel.
Also....thinking about stocks and how brokerages have raced to the bottom on trading fees (no cost trades), why wouldn't the same happen w/ crypto (?)....making Coinbases future revenue even more questionable
feels like crypto has the potential to be the markets next big Trojan Horse.
Also....thinking about stocks and how brokerages have raced to the bottom on trading fees (no cost trades), why wouldn't the same happen w/ crypto (?)....making Coinbases future revenue even more questionable
feels like crypto has the potential to be the markets next big Trojan Horse.
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Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
I think there would still be decent trading fees even if there is a drop, because of the volatility. But yes, they would decline certainly. Still, we see people in this thread saying that one should invest in Ether, BTC etc. rather than COIN. If anything, I would expect COIN to hold up better in a downturn than BTC, Ether etc.F150HD wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:56 pm ]I am no analyst but in reading...most (nearly all?) of their revenue is from fees from folks trading bitcoin/ether which makes their revenue nearly completely dependent on them? we all know how volatile BC is (dropped 75% a few years ago?) so that dependence is a huge Achilles heel.
I do wonder about competition from other exchange/brokerages and decentralized exchanges (although I think those would appeal mostly to the crypto true believers).
Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
Buy one share and hold.
Fun experiment.
I bought one share of Amazon a few years back. Amazed at what it’s done. I get to have an old man story one day about how I bought one share and Amazon ruined mom and pop stores, yada yada yada.
I think I’ll do this with Coinbase too : )
Fun experiment.
I bought one share of Amazon a few years back. Amazed at what it’s done. I get to have an old man story one day about how I bought one share and Amazon ruined mom and pop stores, yada yada yada.
I think I’ll do this with Coinbase too : )
Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
Nope.
I'm already capped on my individual stock holdings.
I'm already capped on my individual stock holdings.
Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
No, because as soon as Schwab or Fidelity offers this service I’ll kick them and their fees to the curb.Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 3:25 pm I have to admit I’m tempted to nibble.... they are the leader in their industry and it doesn’t seem like crypto is going anywhere.
All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.
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Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
UNI is a better purchase. Its market cap is around 19 billion USD. It's comparable to Coinbase in volume, but UNI's addressable market is so much larger. And of course its cost structure is a small fraction of Coinbase. Total no brainer. Buy UNI.
Unfortunately, UNI is not as interesting as it was in December when I said here at Bogleheads that UNI was massively undervalued at 3.50 USD, but Ok, at 36.50 today it's still a very good buy, and will likely be worth much, much more than Coinbase one day. In December my thinking was we'd see UNI at 40 once Coinbase IPO's, as I had assumed Coinbase would IPO around 40 billion USD (and people would wake up to UNI). Now I think we'll see 100 UNI by year end, as Coinbase will attract many more users to crypto, and UNI will be one of the first applications they use.
The beauty of crypto is that once intelligent and open minded investors start to actually use these protocols, they immediately see the potential. Just holding USDC in Aave and watching your balance rise every second is revolutionary. Swapping assets on UNI, or earning fees at UNI by providing liquidity, is mind blowing. You start to realize how badly we retail investors have made out from traditional finance, that the vast majority of profits have gone to the privileged few. And you start to realize those dark days are coming to an end.
So to summarize, Coinbase may or may not be a great buy at 100 billion USD market cap. But I believe UNI is still interesting at 36.50.
Unfortunately, UNI is not as interesting as it was in December when I said here at Bogleheads that UNI was massively undervalued at 3.50 USD, but Ok, at 36.50 today it's still a very good buy, and will likely be worth much, much more than Coinbase one day. In December my thinking was we'd see UNI at 40 once Coinbase IPO's, as I had assumed Coinbase would IPO around 40 billion USD (and people would wake up to UNI). Now I think we'll see 100 UNI by year end, as Coinbase will attract many more users to crypto, and UNI will be one of the first applications they use.
The beauty of crypto is that once intelligent and open minded investors start to actually use these protocols, they immediately see the potential. Just holding USDC in Aave and watching your balance rise every second is revolutionary. Swapping assets on UNI, or earning fees at UNI by providing liquidity, is mind blowing. You start to realize how badly we retail investors have made out from traditional finance, that the vast majority of profits have gone to the privileged few. And you start to realize those dark days are coming to an end.
So to summarize, Coinbase may or may not be a great buy at 100 billion USD market cap. But I believe UNI is still interesting at 36.50.
Asset Allocation: VT
Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
Where can someone with decent understanding of blockchain learn more about UNI and its value?Prahasaurus wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 11:57 pm UNI is a better purchase. Its market cap is around 19 billion USD. It's comparable to Coinbase in volume, but UNI's addressable market is so much larger. And of course its cost structure is a small fraction of Coinbase. Total no brainer. Buy UNI.
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Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
Coingecko for basic stats, crypto twitter to follow the developers and news relating to UNI, be active on their Discord channel, Bankless podcast had a great interview with the UNI founder on v3 just last week, etc., etc. You should also follow very closely Ethereum, as UNI is very much linked to the success of that project.UncleLeo wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 1:35 amWhere can someone with decent understanding of blockchain learn more about UNI and its value?Prahasaurus wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 11:57 pm UNI is a better purchase. Its market cap is around 19 billion USD. It's comparable to Coinbase in volume, but UNI's addressable market is so much larger. And of course its cost structure is a small fraction of Coinbase. Total no brainer. Buy UNI.
Asset Allocation: VT
- QuestioningWanderer
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Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
Coinbase doesn't have enough Moat.
They don't have a unique product. It's just an exchange and there are plenty of other exchanges and will be plenty of more.
If you couldn't get into pre-IPO seed rounds, then I don't see logical sense to buy on IPO.
IPOs are for early investors to get 100x of the sheeple herd flowing in.
If you wanted to buy Coinbase stock, why did you not go and buy it before IPO via EquityZen or other similar platforms?
Makes no sense.
Who wants to be a laggard?
Either you are a full on 100% indexer or if you DO stock picking then go where there is high barrier of entry: seed rounds and angel investing.
With IPOs its just a way for early investors to cash out on the gullible.
They don't have a unique product. It's just an exchange and there are plenty of other exchanges and will be plenty of more.
If you couldn't get into pre-IPO seed rounds, then I don't see logical sense to buy on IPO.
IPOs are for early investors to get 100x of the sheeple herd flowing in.
If you wanted to buy Coinbase stock, why did you not go and buy it before IPO via EquityZen or other similar platforms?
Makes no sense.
Who wants to be a laggard?
Either you are a full on 100% indexer or if you DO stock picking then go where there is high barrier of entry: seed rounds and angel investing.
With IPOs its just a way for early investors to cash out on the gullible.
Always question status quo.
Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
If anything I'm tempted to short it.
Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
I’m 100% getting in hoping to make a quick buck and no one is talking me out of it.
I’d trade it all for a little more |
-C Montgomery Burns
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Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
I think many people, even here, aren't so committed to indexing (*) that they wouldn't put a little play money into an IPO.QuestioningWanderer wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:24 am Either you are a full on 100% indexer or if you DO stock picking then go where there is high barrier of entry: seed rounds and angel investing.
(*) This seems to me to be the reverse side of the coin (pun intended) from those crypto true believers who disdain COIN because it's not DeFi.
Last edited by SlowMovingInvestor on Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:49 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
But Robin Hood (despite its glitches) and being a direct competitor to Fido and Schwab, with a far smaller range of offerings seems to have thrived, and will likely have a successful IPO soon (GME or not). If a direct competitor can thrive, then COIN can too.Corsair wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 11:35 pmNo, because as soon as Schwab or Fidelity offers this service I’ll kick them and their fees to the curb.Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 3:25 pm I have to admit I’m tempted to nibble.... they are the leader in their industry and it doesn’t seem like crypto is going anywhere.
- QuestioningWanderer
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Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
This doesn't make sense.SlowMovingInvestor wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:46 amI think many people, even here, aren't so committed to indexing (*) that they wouldn't put a little play money into an IPO.QuestioningWanderer wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:24 am Either you are a full on 100% indexer or if you DO stock picking then go where there is high barrier of entry: seed rounds and angel investing.
(*) This seems to me to be the reverse side of the coin (pun intended) from those crypto true believers who disdain COIN because it's not DeFi.
If you want to go pick individual companies you are very aware that IPOs are a cash grab for early investors who will make 100x, 1000x returns.
So what reasons do you have for choosing IPO over going for seed rounds?
Always question status quo.
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Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
It's not easy for most of us to go for angel investing or seed rounds in promising companies (I know there are new platforms, but I think it's the sketchiest companies that are available for non VHNW types).QuestioningWanderer wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:50 amThis doesn't make sense.SlowMovingInvestor wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:46 amI think many people, even here, aren't so committed to indexing (*) that they wouldn't put a little play money into an IPO.QuestioningWanderer wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:24 am Either you are a full on 100% indexer or if you DO stock picking then go where there is high barrier of entry: seed rounds and angel investing.
(*) This seems to me to be the reverse side of the coin (pun intended) from those crypto true believers who disdain COIN because it's not DeFi.
If you want to go pick individual companies you are very aware that IPOs are a cash grab for early investors who will make 100x, 1000x returns.
So what reasons do you have for choosing IPO over going for seed rounds?
Yes, early investors and employees would make tons of $s, but that's no reason not to buy an IPO later. [Maybe not on IPO date to avoid the frenzy]
95 % of my non legacy investments are in index funds (excluding the occasional VG fund that is left over from the distant past with huge gains that I can't liquidate). But I don't believe that the choice is between 100% index or go full seed rounds
Last edited by SlowMovingInvestor on Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
If you can get access before it is on the exchange, get in and sell it on the first day it is listed.
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Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
The fees were the biggest draw for RH, plus instant margin, and addictive trading/UI.They had a competitive edge on fees. But a lot of people went out of Robinhood to the other brokerages after the brokerages dropped fees and their less than ideal business practices came to light . They will likely stay in business from the first mover advantage, but their valuation isn't the same as what it was. It's a similar thing for coinbase. I don't think people are saying that it's not valuable, it's just not worth what it's valued at.SlowMovingInvestor wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:48 amBut Robin Hood (despite its glitches) and being a direct competitor to Fido and Schwab, with a far smaller range of offerings seems to have thrived, and will likely have a successful IPO soon (GME or not). If a direct competitor can thrive, then COIN can too.Corsair wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 11:35 pmNo, because as soon as Schwab or Fidelity offers this service I’ll kick them and their fees to the curb.Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 3:25 pm I have to admit I’m tempted to nibble.... they are the leader in their industry and it doesn’t seem like crypto is going anywhere.
You can justify high margins from competitors if you have a competitive advantage (think Apple computers) , but if there is no competitive advantage, high margins are usually whittled down as others enter the market build upon existing ideas.
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Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
For years and years and the world said that Apple had no competitive advantage because anybody could built a phone.runninginvestor wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:15 amThe fees were the biggest draw for RH, plus instant margin, and addictive trading/UI.They had a competitive edge on fees. But a lot of people went out of Robinhood to the other brokerages after the brokerages dropped fees and their less than ideal business practices came to light . They will likely stay in business from the first mover advantage, but their valuation isn't the same as what it was. It's a similar thing for coinbase. I don't think people are saying that it's not valuable, it's just not worth what it's valued at.SlowMovingInvestor wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:48 amBut Robin Hood (despite its glitches) and being a direct competitor to Fido and Schwab, with a far smaller range of offerings seems to have thrived, and will likely have a successful IPO soon (GME or not). If a direct competitor can thrive, then COIN can too.Corsair wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 11:35 pmNo, because as soon as Schwab or Fidelity offers this service I’ll kick them and their fees to the curb.Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 3:25 pm I have to admit I’m tempted to nibble.... they are the leader in their industry and it doesn’t seem like crypto is going anywhere.
You can justify high margins from competitors if you have a competitive advantage (think Apple computers) , but if there is no competitive advantage, high margins are usually whittled down as others enter the market build upon existing ideas.
To this day many still argue that Apple has no future.
Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
If it trades at $250, that is a pretty tempting price...
Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
It will almost surely open higher than that based on recent prior direct listings. 300-350ish is what I’m reading.
I’d trade it all for a little more |
-C Montgomery Burns
Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
No way it will.
Coinbase is interesting. They have higher fees than almost everyone else. They also have trust. I suspect they will really be a bank disruptor with an opening value higher than most banks. They have not yet ventured much into the yield game. If they offer even 2% on USDC as a publicly traded company it will be insanely popular. They can make boatloads on that offering and it would completely hedge their business against any crypto crash. As crypto crash would result in huge move to stablecoins. They also have Ethereum staking coming any day which will add significant revenues to their balance sheet.
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Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
VTSAX about to get even more exposure to crypto. Never even have to pay the point and a half in and out of them.
That Bogle guy, almost like he had it figured out.
That Bogle guy, almost like he had it figured out.
Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
The interest rates on BSC are much better.Prahasaurus wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 11:57 pm UNI is a better purchase. Its market cap is around 19 billion USD. It's comparable to Coinbase in volume, but UNI's addressable market is so much larger. And of course its cost structure is a small fraction of Coinbase. Total no brainer. Buy UNI.
Unfortunately, UNI is not as interesting as it was in December when I said here at Bogleheads that UNI was massively undervalued at 3.50 USD, but Ok, at 36.50 today it's still a very good buy, and will likely be worth much, much more than Coinbase one day. In December my thinking was we'd see UNI at 40 once Coinbase IPO's, as I had assumed Coinbase would IPO around 40 billion USD (and people would wake up to UNI). Now I think we'll see 100 UNI by year end, as Coinbase will attract many more users to crypto, and UNI will be one of the first applications they use.
The beauty of crypto is that once intelligent and open minded investors start to actually use these protocols, they immediately see the potential. Just holding USDC in Aave and watching your balance rise every second is revolutionary. Swapping assets on UNI, or earning fees at UNI by providing liquidity, is mind blowing. You start to realize how badly we retail investors have made out from traditional finance, that the vast majority of profits have gone to the privileged few. And you start to realize those dark days are coming to an end.
So to summarize, Coinbase may or may not be a great buy at 100 billion USD market cap. But I believe UNI is still interesting at 36.50.
Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
Yeah it doesn't look likely to actually trade at $250. If it does I might jump in a tiny bit in a retirement account that I can't otherwise use to buy bitcoin/ether directly.ohboy! wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 8:12 amNo way it will.
Coinbase is interesting. They have higher fees than almost everyone else. They also have trust. I suspect they will really be a bank disruptor with an opening value higher than most banks. They have not yet ventured much into the yield game. If they offer even 2% on USDC as a publicly traded company it will be insanely popular. They can make boatloads on that offering and it would completely hedge their business against any crypto crash. As crypto crash would result in huge move to stablecoins. They also have Ethereum staking coming any day which will add significant revenues to their balance sheet.
Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
What time can you start buying it?
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Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
The interest rates on what on BSC are much better?dsasdg wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 8:41 amThe interest rates on BSC are much better.Prahasaurus wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 11:57 pm UNI is a better purchase. Its market cap is around 19 billion USD. It's comparable to Coinbase in volume, but UNI's addressable market is so much larger. And of course its cost structure is a small fraction of Coinbase. Total no brainer. Buy UNI.
Unfortunately, UNI is not as interesting as it was in December when I said here at Bogleheads that UNI was massively undervalued at 3.50 USD, but Ok, at 36.50 today it's still a very good buy, and will likely be worth much, much more than Coinbase one day. In December my thinking was we'd see UNI at 40 once Coinbase IPO's, as I had assumed Coinbase would IPO around 40 billion USD (and people would wake up to UNI). Now I think we'll see 100 UNI by year end, as Coinbase will attract many more users to crypto, and UNI will be one of the first applications they use.
The beauty of crypto is that once intelligent and open minded investors start to actually use these protocols, they immediately see the potential. Just holding USDC in Aave and watching your balance rise every second is revolutionary. Swapping assets on UNI, or earning fees at UNI by providing liquidity, is mind blowing. You start to realize how badly we retail investors have made out from traditional finance, that the vast majority of profits have gone to the privileged few. And you start to realize those dark days are coming to an end.
So to summarize, Coinbase may or may not be a great buy at 100 billion USD market cap. But I believe UNI is still interesting at 36.50.
Asset Allocation: VT
Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
Never heard of it until 5 minutes ago when I read a WSJ profile on the guy - and decided I liked him. I'm in - for a share.
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Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
Pancakebunny and belt financePrahasaurus wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 8:49 amThe interest rates on what on BSC are much better?dsasdg wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 8:41 amThe interest rates on BSC are much better.Prahasaurus wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 11:57 pm UNI is a better purchase. Its market cap is around 19 billion USD. It's comparable to Coinbase in volume, but UNI's addressable market is so much larger. And of course its cost structure is a small fraction of Coinbase. Total no brainer. Buy UNI.
Unfortunately, UNI is not as interesting as it was in December when I said here at Bogleheads that UNI was massively undervalued at 3.50 USD, but Ok, at 36.50 today it's still a very good buy, and will likely be worth much, much more than Coinbase one day. In December my thinking was we'd see UNI at 40 once Coinbase IPO's, as I had assumed Coinbase would IPO around 40 billion USD (and people would wake up to UNI). Now I think we'll see 100 UNI by year end, as Coinbase will attract many more users to crypto, and UNI will be one of the first applications they use.
The beauty of crypto is that once intelligent and open minded investors start to actually use these protocols, they immediately see the potential. Just holding USDC in Aave and watching your balance rise every second is revolutionary. Swapping assets on UNI, or earning fees at UNI by providing liquidity, is mind blowing. You start to realize how badly we retail investors have made out from traditional finance, that the vast majority of profits have gone to the privileged few. And you start to realize those dark days are coming to an end.
So to summarize, Coinbase may or may not be a great buy at 100 billion USD market cap. But I believe UNI is still interesting at 36.50.
It is much better to buy XVS or even CAKE/BNB.
Last edited by dsasdg on Wed Apr 14, 2021 9:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
bugleheadd wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 9:14 ami would like to know too
going to toss my 6k roth contribution into coinbase
All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.
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Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
Oh, it was a joke. A good reminder why I'm wasting my time discussing crypto at Bogleheads. Thanks.dsasdg wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 9:43 amPancakebunny and belt financePrahasaurus wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 8:49 amThe interest rates on what on BSC are much better?dsasdg wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 8:41 amThe interest rates on BSC are much better.Prahasaurus wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 11:57 pm UNI is a better purchase. Its market cap is around 19 billion USD. It's comparable to Coinbase in volume, but UNI's addressable market is so much larger. And of course its cost structure is a small fraction of Coinbase. Total no brainer. Buy UNI.
Unfortunately, UNI is not as interesting as it was in December when I said here at Bogleheads that UNI was massively undervalued at 3.50 USD, but Ok, at 36.50 today it's still a very good buy, and will likely be worth much, much more than Coinbase one day. In December my thinking was we'd see UNI at 40 once Coinbase IPO's, as I had assumed Coinbase would IPO around 40 billion USD (and people would wake up to UNI). Now I think we'll see 100 UNI by year end, as Coinbase will attract many more users to crypto, and UNI will be one of the first applications they use.
The beauty of crypto is that once intelligent and open minded investors start to actually use these protocols, they immediately see the potential. Just holding USDC in Aave and watching your balance rise every second is revolutionary. Swapping assets on UNI, or earning fees at UNI by providing liquidity, is mind blowing. You start to realize how badly we retail investors have made out from traditional finance, that the vast majority of profits have gone to the privileged few. And you start to realize those dark days are coming to an end.
So to summarize, Coinbase may or may not be a great buy at 100 billion USD market cap. But I believe UNI is still interesting at 36.50.
It is much better to buy XVS or even CAKE/BNB.
Asset Allocation: VT
Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
Please excuse my ignorance. I looked up Pancakebunny and see that CAKE is paying 319.62% APY. Where does this come from?dsasdg wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 9:43 amPancakebunny and belt financePrahasaurus wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 8:49 amThe interest rates on what on BSC are much better?dsasdg wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 8:41 amThe interest rates on BSC are much better.Prahasaurus wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 11:57 pm UNI is a better purchase. Its market cap is around 19 billion USD. It's comparable to Coinbase in volume, but UNI's addressable market is so much larger. And of course its cost structure is a small fraction of Coinbase. Total no brainer. Buy UNI.
Unfortunately, UNI is not as interesting as it was in December when I said here at Bogleheads that UNI was massively undervalued at 3.50 USD, but Ok, at 36.50 today it's still a very good buy, and will likely be worth much, much more than Coinbase one day. In December my thinking was we'd see UNI at 40 once Coinbase IPO's, as I had assumed Coinbase would IPO around 40 billion USD (and people would wake up to UNI). Now I think we'll see 100 UNI by year end, as Coinbase will attract many more users to crypto, and UNI will be one of the first applications they use.
The beauty of crypto is that once intelligent and open minded investors start to actually use these protocols, they immediately see the potential. Just holding USDC in Aave and watching your balance rise every second is revolutionary. Swapping assets on UNI, or earning fees at UNI by providing liquidity, is mind blowing. You start to realize how badly we retail investors have made out from traditional finance, that the vast majority of profits have gone to the privileged few. And you start to realize those dark days are coming to an end.
So to summarize, Coinbase may or may not be a great buy at 100 billion USD market cap. But I believe UNI is still interesting at 36.50.
It is much better to buy XVS or even CAKE/BNB.
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Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
It usually takes a couple hours after market open to start trading. It's already being reported that the price will open around $350.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/14/coinbas ... sting.html
Last edited by runninginvestor on Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
Duplicate