Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

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Gadget
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Gadget »

Prahasaurus wrote: Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:30 am
txhill wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 8:08 pm
case_of_ennui wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 7:50 pm
Gadget wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 3:52 pm
make_a_better_world wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 2:54 pm Georgia passes a bill to teach high school students about crypto

https://invezz.com/news/2021/03/12/geor ... ut-crypto/
OK, I'm pro crypto but this is ridiculous. We should be teaching kids budgeting and financial literacy well before they learn about crypto. Budgeting and saving should be first priority of life skills.

Maybe if crypto was like the last week of a financial literacy class or something fine. But if crypto is their first exposure to finances, it seems like a path to disaster.
Through elementary school, middle school, high school, and college I didn't have a single course teach me about balancing a check book, what a bond is, what stocks are, the different types of savings or investments accounts, or the pitfalls of debt. But sure let's prioritize teaching HS students about crypto. :oops:
Sometimes it helps to click through the link. The article says this about the bill:
The new program would consist of 16 new areas of financial literacy such as cryptocurrency, balancing a checking account, money management, making investments, and completing loan applications, among other traditional subjects.
Not quite as ridiculous in that context, especially given that a lot of the younger generation are interested in crypto. With all of the pitfalls associated with crypto (irreversible transactions, specific requirements for self-custody), it's not too crazy to spend a few days teaching them some basics about it. I mean when I was in grade school, we had a class called "Home Economics" that didn't teach ANY financial literacy and instead taught us how to do things like sew together a pillow. So this is an upgrade over that...
I highly doubt there is anything relevant schools can teach kids about crypto. It reminds me of those IT classes I had in the 90's, with 50 year old professors teaching things 5 years out of date. By the time it's in a book, it's too late...

Crypto is evolving so fast it's just mind boggling. And these new kids, growing up on crypto, who are trading tokenized stocks, currencies, options, derivatives, etc. like pros at 19 from their basement, are going to destroy Wall St veterans. I can't wait. Those rich guys whose daddies got them into an Ivy League school and think it was on their own merit will have no chance against what is coming.

I'm reminded of poker. Those old "pros" were laughing at the young internet kids, who grew up playing internet poker. The old pros couldn't wait to get them in live games, and then... The old "pros" got destroyed, most went bankrupt. You had 19 year olds using AI solvers competing with the old guys who thought they had a "system" or just a "feel" for the game, etc. That's nice, but math and AI wins every time, over large sample sizes.
Note: I'm eating crow about my first reaction to the GA article. My reading comprehension was pitiful... Crypto is just one of many financial life skills they are teaching, and the list looks helpful. I didn't learn any of them from school, and my parents basically taught me the stock market was just a place to gamble and lose all your money. So I'd have been better off with the financial literacy they listed.

Prahasaurus, I respectfully disagree to your point that schools can't teach ANYTHING about crypto. Think about the basics. They could learn what a blockchain is. They could learn about encryption/decryption algorithms. They could learn about split key encryption, and why protecting your seed phrase in crypto is vital to not getting scammed. They could learn about proof of work vs proof of stake on a network. Most of this is fundamental to understanding crypto, at least if you want to understand past the point of most people today who just install robinhood and hit buy dogecoin.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by LadyGeek »

The discussion is getting derailed on the proposed GA bill.

Please stay on-topic, which is cryptocurrency (declining).
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Prahasaurus
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Prahasaurus »

Gadget wrote: Mon Apr 26, 2021 2:46 pm
Prahasaurus, I respectfully disagree to your point that schools can't teach ANYTHING about crypto. Think about the basics. They could learn what a blockchain is. They could learn about encryption/decryption algorithms. They could learn about split key encryption, and why protecting your seed phrase in crypto is vital to not getting scammed. They could learn about proof of work vs proof of stake on a network. Most of this is fundamental to understanding crypto, at least if you want to understand past the point of most people today who just install robinhood and hit buy dogecoin.
Yes, those are good points. And how to keep your coins safe is incredibly important. Especially as more normies move into this space.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

Prahasaurus wrote: Mon Apr 26, 2021 3:33 pm
Gadget wrote: Mon Apr 26, 2021 2:46 pm
Prahasaurus, I respectfully disagree to your point that schools can't teach ANYTHING about crypto. Think about the basics. They could learn what a blockchain is. They could learn about encryption/decryption algorithms. They could learn about split key encryption, and why protecting your seed phrase in crypto is vital to not getting scammed. They could learn about proof of work vs proof of stake on a network. Most of this is fundamental to understanding crypto, at least if you want to understand past the point of most people today who just install robinhood and hit buy dogecoin.
Yes, those are good points. And how to keep your coins safe is incredibly important. Especially as more normies move into this space.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/words-a ... e-normcore
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by David Jay »

DurangoWino wrote: Sun Apr 25, 2021 9:34 pm Pull up a daily chart on BTC. You will notice that at least for this year it has gone down at the end of the month every month. Not sure if the coincides with the monthly options expiration but it has happened Jan/Feb/Mar/Apr. Looks like a tradable pattern until it isn’t. It is back up again to start the week after “crashing” last week. Look at the chart, it is right there. :moneybag
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JHU ALmuni
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by JHU ALmuni »

Gadget wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 3:27 pm
JHU ALmuni wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:03 pm
SlowMovingInvestor wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:50 pm DOGE used to be 50% of my FOMO portfolio, now it's 300% of my portfolio :mrgreen: :confused
Doge was under 1% of my real-life portfolio just weeks ago and now close to 50% and actually made my NW reach 7 figures for the first time ever. Very exciting...
I really hope you've been selling some and taking some profits. Even if for some crazy reason you are bullish on dodgecoin.

As someone who played and won big in the first GME frenzy, all of the best moves I made felt stupid at the time. They felt like I was losing money, because GME would keep going up after I sold. I never timed the peak, but I was periodically taking profits off the table as it kept going up, and then down. Even though my GME gains never went anywhere close to 50% NW. More like 2% to 12% in the end. I think if I timed it perfectly, I'd have gone from 2% to about 22%. But nobody times it perfectly when speculating.

Honestly haven't sold anything. Don't need the money now and I feel like there's still some room for this run. I know I could be wrong, but that's a risk I'm willing to take.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by GR8FUL-D »

JHU ALmuni wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 8:47 pm Honestly haven't sold anything. Don't need the money now and I feel like there's still some room for this run. I know I could be wrong, but that's a risk I'm willing to take.
Congrats and (sincerely) hope it works out for you! I'm curious, what metrics or info. are you using to gauge how much room there is to run?" Under what conditions or at what price point will you sell?

One thing's for sure, I'll definitely be watching Saturday Night Live this weekend!
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

JHU ALmuni wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 8:47 pm
Gadget wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 3:27 pm
JHU ALmuni wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:03 pm
SlowMovingInvestor wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:50 pm DOGE used to be 50% of my FOMO portfolio, now it's 300% of my portfolio :mrgreen: :confused
Doge was under 1% of my real-life portfolio just weeks ago and now close to 50% and actually made my NW reach 7 figures for the first time ever. Very exciting...
I really hope you've been selling some and taking some profits. Even if for some crazy reason you are bullish on dodgecoin.

As someone who played and won big in the first GME frenzy, all of the best moves I made felt stupid at the time. They felt like I was losing money, because GME would keep going up after I sold. I never timed the peak, but I was periodically taking profits off the table as it kept going up, and then down. Even though my GME gains never went anywhere close to 50% NW. More like 2% to 12% in the end. I think if I timed it perfectly, I'd have gone from 2% to about 22%. But nobody times it perfectly when speculating.

Honestly haven't sold anything. Don't need the money now and I feel like there's still some room for this run. I know I could be wrong, but that's a risk I'm willing to take.
So you have $500k in Dogecoin?

Sweet Christmas, you have some risk tolerance.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by txhill »

watchnerd wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 9:31 pm
JHU ALmuni wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 8:47 pm
Gadget wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 3:27 pm
JHU ALmuni wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:03 pm
SlowMovingInvestor wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:50 pm DOGE used to be 50% of my FOMO portfolio, now it's 300% of my portfolio :mrgreen: :confused
Doge was under 1% of my real-life portfolio just weeks ago and now close to 50% and actually made my NW reach 7 figures for the first time ever. Very exciting...
I really hope you've been selling some and taking some profits. Even if for some crazy reason you are bullish on dodgecoin.

As someone who played and won big in the first GME frenzy, all of the best moves I made felt stupid at the time. They felt like I was losing money, because GME would keep going up after I sold. I never timed the peak, but I was periodically taking profits off the table as it kept going up, and then down. Even though my GME gains never went anywhere close to 50% NW. More like 2% to 12% in the end. I think if I timed it perfectly, I'd have gone from 2% to about 22%. But nobody times it perfectly when speculating.

Honestly haven't sold anything. Don't need the money now and I feel like there's still some room for this run. I know I could be wrong, but that's a risk I'm willing to take.
So you have $500k in Dogecoin?

Sweet Christmas, you have some risk tolerance.
Since you posted that, he now has gone up to at least 600k in Dogecoin! :D
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

txhill wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 7:23 am

Since you posted that, he now has gone up to at least 600k in Dogecoin! :D
so silly
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by JonnyDVM »

watchnerd wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 7:25 am
txhill wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 7:23 am

Since you posted that, he now has gone up to at least 600k in Dogecoin! :D
so silly
The worst part is that from now on our lives are going to be filled with insufferable Dogecoin Millionaires.

“I told you guys and you didn’t listen to me. It was so obvious that it was going to moon. You guys are so dumb!”

For eternity
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

JonnyDVM wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 8:43 am
The worst part is that from now on our lives are going to be filled with insufferable Dogecoin Millionaires.
How many do you think will retain that wealth?

I bet a good chunk just blow it on crazy spending. Easy come, easy go.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

JonnyDVM wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 8:43 am
“I told you guys and you didn’t listen to me. It was so obvious that it was going to moon. You guys are so dumb!”

For eternity
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Gadget
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Gadget »

JHU ALmuni wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 8:47 pm
Gadget wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 3:27 pm
JHU ALmuni wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:03 pm
SlowMovingInvestor wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:50 pm DOGE used to be 50% of my FOMO portfolio, now it's 300% of my portfolio :mrgreen: :confused
Doge was under 1% of my real-life portfolio just weeks ago and now close to 50% and actually made my NW reach 7 figures for the first time ever. Very exciting...
I really hope you've been selling some and taking some profits. Even if for some crazy reason you are bullish on dodgecoin.

As someone who played and won big in the first GME frenzy, all of the best moves I made felt stupid at the time. They felt like I was losing money, because GME would keep going up after I sold. I never timed the peak, but I was periodically taking profits off the table as it kept going up, and then down. Even though my GME gains never went anywhere close to 50% NW. More like 2% to 12% in the end. I think if I timed it perfectly, I'd have gone from 2% to about 22%. But nobody times it perfectly when speculating.

Honestly haven't sold anything. Don't need the money now and I feel like there's still some room for this run. I know I could be wrong, but that's a risk I'm willing to take.
My experience of risky investing/speculating is limited. But I can tell you it is usually much easier to know when to buy than it is when to sell. That's how it was for me and most of my peers with GME anyway.

Personally, I'm very bullish on ETH and BTC. Even some altcoins like AAVE, UNI, ONE, SNX, etc. But my crypto holdings ballooned much faster than I ever dreamed. I believe I put in 4% of my NW sometime last year. It ballooned to something like 18-20%. I've been trying to sell as much as possible to reduce risk while minimizing short term capital gains. I'm now down to 14% NW, but I can sleep a lot better knowing that all crypto could go to zero and I'd still come out somewhere slightly ahead. When I can get to long term capital gains, I'll likely sell more.

50% of NW is life changing money on a risky bet.

Just look at the volume being traded on dodgecoin right now. It's really low comparatively. All it would take is one whale to do a mass selloff, and the price would tank. Unless Elon is really the dodgefather and is buying up the whole supply and never planning on selling.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by HomerJ »

JHU ALmuni wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:03 pm
SlowMovingInvestor wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:50 pm DOGE used to be 50% of my FOMO portfolio, now it's 300% of my portfolio :mrgreen: :confused
Doge was under 1% of my real-life portfolio just weeks ago and now close to 50% and actually made my NW reach 7 figures for the first time ever. Very exciting...
Investing shouldn't be exciting. Gambling is exciting.

I knew quite a few paper millionaires in the dot-com days. Their individual stocks ballooned up too, and their net worth jumped past $1 million.

And then the crash happened, and some of those stocks lost 90%, some went to zero.

All those guys wished they had sold some.

The problem is it doesn't feel real to you. You gained $500,000 in a few weeks, and you don't appreciate it as real money because you didn't really earn it.

You wouldn't bet $500,000 that took you 10 years to save. but betting $500,000 that was handed to you for free is easier.

But it's still $500,000. You don't think you should sell at least $100,000 or $200,000 of that?
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by GP813 »

Why are there so many crypto threads on Bogleheads.org? There are 4 different threads on the front page of Investing - Theory, News & General.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by bloom2708 »

GP813 wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 10:37 am Why are there so many crypto threads on Bogleheads.org? There are 4 different threads on the front page of Investing - Theory, News & General.
Top of mind. Front of page.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by txhill »

bloom2708 wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 10:48 am
GP813 wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 10:37 am Why are there so many crypto threads on Bogleheads.org? There are 4 different threads on the front page of Investing - Theory, News & General.
Top of mind. Front of page.
And one can only have so many US v. Int'l and Stock v. Bond Allocation debates before running out of anything new to talk about :)
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by JonnyDVM »

HomerJ wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 10:35 am
JHU ALmuni wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:03 pm
SlowMovingInvestor wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:50 pm DOGE used to be 50% of my FOMO portfolio, now it's 300% of my portfolio :mrgreen: :confused
Doge was under 1% of my real-life portfolio just weeks ago and now close to 50% and actually made my NW reach 7 figures for the first time ever. Very exciting...
Investing shouldn't be exciting. Gambling is exciting.

I knew quite a few paper millionaires in the dot-com days. Their individual stocks ballooned up too, and their net worth jumped past $1 million.

And then the crash happened, and some of those stocks lost 90%, some went to zero.

All those guys wished they had sold some.

The problem is it doesn't feel real to you. You gained $500,000 in a few weeks, and you don't appreciate it as real money because you didn't really earn it.

You wouldn't bet $500,000 that took you 10 years to save. but betting $500,000 that was handed to you for free is easier.

But it's still $500,000. You don't think you should sell at least $100,000 or $200,000 of that?
Look at this guy, trying to bring rationality to a discussion about Doge. Sir, put that sensibility back into your pocket and get out of here!
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Marseille07 »

GP813 wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 10:37 am Why are there so many crypto threads on Bogleheads.org? There are 4 different threads on the front page of Investing - Theory, News & General.
I agree. I sometimes wonder if I'm visiting Bogleheads or Cryptoheads.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by YRT70 »

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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by ApeAttack »

txhill wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 10:49 am
bloom2708 wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 10:48 am
GP813 wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 10:37 am Why are there so many crypto threads on Bogleheads.org? There are 4 different threads on the front page of Investing - Theory, News & General.
Top of mind. Front of page.
And one can only have so many US v. Int'l and Stock v. Bond Allocation debates before running out of anything new to talk about :)
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by alluringreality »

GP813 wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 10:37 am Why are there so many crypto threads on Bogleheads.org? There are 4 different threads on the front page of Investing - Theory, News & General.
Generally people like to chase performance. There are at least a couple crypto prices that have been fairly hot recently. Looking for rational explanations in the realm of crypto is probably debatable, since apparently some people even use Twitter from an upcoming SNL host as investment theory. Likewise a number of gold threads were on the first page when it was around $2k, and the gold discussions dropped with the price.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by txhill »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 12:35 pm
GP813 wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 10:37 am Why are there so many crypto threads on Bogleheads.org? There are 4 different threads on the front page of Investing - Theory, News & General.
I agree. I sometimes wonder if I'm visiting Bogleheads or Cryptoheads.
I'm all in favor of crypto but I agree there are too many individual threads. That said, if any investment had been outperforming the market for a decade (as crypto has done), I'd want it to be discussed heavily. That sort of performance, if sustained, could mean what constitutes the "market" may have changed, which may require a true Boglehead to adjust their allocation.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Marseille07 »

txhill wrote: Thu May 06, 2021 5:00 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 12:35 pm
GP813 wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 10:37 am Why are there so many crypto threads on Bogleheads.org? There are 4 different threads on the front page of Investing - Theory, News & General.
I agree. I sometimes wonder if I'm visiting Bogleheads or Cryptoheads.
I'm all in favor of crypto but I agree there are too many individual threads. That said, if any investment had been outperforming the market for a decade (as crypto has done), I'd want it to be discussed heavily. That sort of performance, if sustained, could mean what constitutes the "market" may have changed, which may require a true Boglehead to adjust their allocation.
I thought one of the key tenets of Bogleheads is diversification. Do we have an ETF that holds top 20 crypto by market cap or something along those lines? Until then, I don't see how owning a particular flavor of crypto would ever enter the conversation of Bogleheads in a serious manner.

It seems increasingly obvious that:
a) there's no utility in crypto
b) people keep throwing monies nonetheless, therefore the prices are actually rising and some people are making money
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

txhill wrote: Thu May 06, 2021 5:00 pm what constitutes the "market" may have changed, which may require a true Boglehead to adjust their allocation.
I think there is some merit to this line of thinking, so am holding crypto at market weight relative to stocks and bonds.

Then again, I already hold stocks at global market weight, which many Bogleheads do not like to do.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Gadget »

watchnerd wrote: Thu May 06, 2021 7:20 pm
txhill wrote: Thu May 06, 2021 5:00 pm what constitutes the "market" may have changed, which may require a true Boglehead to adjust their allocation.
I think there is some merit to this line of thinking, so am holding crypto at market weight relative to stocks and bonds.

Then again, I already hold stocks at global market weight, which many Bogleheads do not like to do.
What is the current crypto market weight? 1%?
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

Gadget wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 8:38 am
watchnerd wrote: Thu May 06, 2021 7:20 pm
txhill wrote: Thu May 06, 2021 5:00 pm what constitutes the "market" may have changed, which may require a true Boglehead to adjust their allocation.
I think there is some merit to this line of thinking, so am holding crypto at market weight relative to stocks and bonds.

Then again, I already hold stocks at global market weight, which many Bogleheads do not like to do.
What is the current crypto market weight? 1%?
==Global Stocks== 59.7%
US Stocks: 34.67%
Ex-US Stocks: 25.03%
==Global Bonds== 38.2%
US Bonds: 19.96%
Ex-US Bonds: 18.23%
==Alts== 2.1%
Crypto: 1.94%
Gold Backed ETFs: 0.17%
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by txhill »

watchnerd wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 8:40 am
Gadget wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 8:38 am
watchnerd wrote: Thu May 06, 2021 7:20 pm
txhill wrote: Thu May 06, 2021 5:00 pm what constitutes the "market" may have changed, which may require a true Boglehead to adjust their allocation.
I think there is some merit to this line of thinking, so am holding crypto at market weight relative to stocks and bonds.

Then again, I already hold stocks at global market weight, which many Bogleheads do not like to do.
What is the current crypto market weight? 1%?
==Global Stocks== 59.7%
US Stocks: 34.67%
Ex-US Stocks: 25.03%
==Global Bonds== 38.2%
US Bonds: 19.96%
Ex-US Bonds: 18.23%
==Alts== 2.1%
Crypto: 1.94%
Gold Backed ETFs: 0.17%
Just out of curiosity did you end up going all ETH, or going into some other alts too? I've slowly gotten to 40 BTC:60 ETH because I'm buying nothing but ETH these days. Tempting even to swap some BTC into ETH but I just don't want to deal with any tax headaches...
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

txhill wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 9:29 am

Just out of curiosity did you end up going all ETH, or going into some other alts too? I've slowly gotten to 40 BTC:60 ETH because I'm buying nothing but ETH these days. Tempting even to swap some BTC into ETH but I just don't want to deal with any tax headaches...
Only for the teensy amount of my allocation that is at Coinbase.

But that's not actually a huge problem given how small the alt coins are by market weight.

The bulk of the allocation is in a Roth IRA (so no tax issues to worry about), where it's possible to buy ETFs for BTC and ETH. Which isn't a huge mismatch to the goal given that they're 60% of the market cap weight between the two of them.
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txhill
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by txhill »

watchnerd wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 9:40 am
txhill wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 9:29 am

Just out of curiosity did you end up going all ETH, or going into some other alts too? I've slowly gotten to 40 BTC:60 ETH because I'm buying nothing but ETH these days. Tempting even to swap some BTC into ETH but I just don't want to deal with any tax headaches...
Only for the teensy amount of my allocation that is at Coinbase.

But that's not actually a huge problem given how small the alt coins are by market weight.

The bulk of the allocation is in a Roth IRA (so no tax issues to worry about), where it's possible to buy ETFs for BTC and ETH. Which isn't a huge mismatch to the goal given that they're 60% of the market cap weight between the two of them.
Yeah, makes sense. Having crypto in a tax advantaged account probably more than makes up for not being able to stake/lend etc.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by JS-Elcano »

watchnerd wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 9:40 am
txhill wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 9:29 am

Just out of curiosity did you end up going all ETH, or going into some other alts too? I've slowly gotten to 40 BTC:60 ETH because I'm buying nothing but ETH these days. Tempting even to swap some BTC into ETH but I just don't want to deal with any tax headaches...
Only for the teensy amount of my allocation that is at Coinbase.

But that's not actually a huge problem given how small the alt coins are by market weight.

The bulk of the allocation is in a Roth IRA (so no tax issues to worry about), where it's possible to buy ETFs for BTC and ETH. Which isn't a huge mismatch to the goal given that they're 60% of the market cap weight between the two of them.
What (ticker symbol) do you buy to hold ETH and BTC in your Roth? Are these the Grayscale ETFs?
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

JS-Elcano wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 10:15 am

What (ticker symbol) do you buy to hold ETH and BTC in your Roth? Are these the Grayscale ETFs?
Yes, the Grayscale ETFs.

Which have an onerous ER.

When / if cheaper ETFs become available, I'll probably swap the Grayscale out.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by JS-Elcano »

watchnerd wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 10:29 am
JS-Elcano wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 10:15 am

What (ticker symbol) do you buy to hold ETH and BTC in your Roth? Are these the Grayscale ETFs?
Yes, the Grayscale ETFs.

Which have an onerous ER.

When / if cheaper ETFs become available, I'll probably swap the Grayscale out.
Thanks!
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Gadget »

watchnerd wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 8:40 am
==Global Stocks== 59.7%
US Stocks: 34.67%
Ex-US Stocks: 25.03%
==Global Bonds== 38.2%
US Bonds: 19.96%
Ex-US Bonds: 18.23%
==Alts== 2.1%
Crypto: 1.94%
Gold Backed ETFs: 0.17%
I like this as a default portfolio suggestion for how much someone should allocate to crypto if they want to get in. But maybe that's because I'm also more convinced about the arguments for holding international stocks at market weight.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by GR8FUL-D »

txhill wrote: Thu May 06, 2021 5:00 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 12:35 pm
GP813 wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 10:37 am Why are there so many crypto threads on Bogleheads.org? There are 4 different threads on the front page of Investing - Theory, News & General.
I agree. I sometimes wonder if I'm visiting Bogleheads or Cryptoheads.
I'm all in favor of crypto but I agree there are too many individual threads. That said, if any investment had been outperforming the market for a decade (as crypto has done), I'd want it to be discussed heavily. That sort of performance, if sustained, could mean what constitutes the "market" may have changed, which may require a true Boglehead to adjust their allocation.
It seems to me that most forum members--regardless if they are pro or con crypto investing/speculation--feel that there are too many crypto threads. I wonder if a reasonable solution would be to create three or four separate "Mega" crypto threads (similar to the Refinance Mega Thread)? For example there could be the "Bitcoin Mega Thread", the "Ethereum Mega Thread", the "Alt-coin Mega Thread", and perhaps the "Defi Lending/staking Mega Thread" or something along those lines.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by txhill »

GR8FUL-D wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 11:02 am
txhill wrote: Thu May 06, 2021 5:00 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 12:35 pm
GP813 wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 10:37 am Why are there so many crypto threads on Bogleheads.org? There are 4 different threads on the front page of Investing - Theory, News & General.
I agree. I sometimes wonder if I'm visiting Bogleheads or Cryptoheads.
I'm all in favor of crypto but I agree there are too many individual threads. That said, if any investment had been outperforming the market for a decade (as crypto has done), I'd want it to be discussed heavily. That sort of performance, if sustained, could mean what constitutes the "market" may have changed, which may require a true Boglehead to adjust their allocation.
It seems to me that most forum members--regardless if they are pro or con crypto investing/speculation--feel that there are too many crypto threads. I wonder if a reasonable solution would be to create three or four separate "Mega" crypto threads (similar to the Refinance Mega Thread)? For example there could be the "Bitcoin Mega Thread", the "Ethereum Mega Thread", the "Alt-coin Mega Thread", and perhaps the "Defi Lending/staking Mega Thread" or something along those lines.
Definitely supportive of this although I'm sure over time an "altcoin" thread will get some pushback from people who don't like the term :)

Anyway looks like dog money could be on the rise again.... I'm sure lots of folks will be watching Elon Musk on SNL for doge buying signals.
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OohLaLa
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by OohLaLa »

GR8FUL-D wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 11:02 am
txhill wrote: Thu May 06, 2021 5:00 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 12:35 pm
GP813 wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 10:37 am Why are there so many crypto threads on Bogleheads.org? There are 4 different threads on the front page of Investing - Theory, News & General.
I agree. I sometimes wonder if I'm visiting Bogleheads or Cryptoheads.
I'm all in favor of crypto but I agree there are too many individual threads. That said, if any investment had been outperforming the market for a decade (as crypto has done), I'd want it to be discussed heavily. That sort of performance, if sustained, could mean what constitutes the "market" may have changed, which may require a true Boglehead to adjust their allocation.
It seems to me that most forum members--regardless if they are pro or con crypto investing/speculation--feel that there are too many crypto threads. I wonder if a reasonable solution would be to create three or four separate "Mega" crypto threads (similar to the Refinance Mega Thread)? For example there could be the "Bitcoin Mega Thread", the "Ethereum Mega Thread", the "Alt-coin Mega Thread", and perhaps the "Defi Lending/staking Mega Thread" or something along those lines.
Like some mentioned, hot topics spring up in waves. I don't see anything unusual, or worrisome in a passing uptick.

The site is called Bogleheads but is deeply related to investing in general. Like it or not, a new type of investment is taking more and more space in the mainstream... and more market cap. It can all go belly up, but it's been more than a decade, through multiple cycles, and it's still choo-chooing on its merry way.

The main problem with the crypto threads is that they often get derailed or hijacked by people that wish to argue whether it's all a scam or not. I find it a bit selfish in some cases. I wish there was more moderation in that respect, but I can imagine admins are already busy as it is. A more innocent example: what we are doing right now is not the point of the current thread. lol

I guess a general mega-thread would be good, for disparate points/ news. Otherwise, if people have specific crypto topics, it should be ok to open new threads (ex: poster who asked for beginner-friendly materials to learn about crypto tech), until site admins/ owners decide cryptoheads are persona non grata at BH.org.

How do mega-threads usually get created? I believe admins are usually the ones to get that started, right?
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by SteelyEyed »

watchnerd wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 8:40 am ==Global Stocks== 59.7%
US Stocks: 34.67%
Ex-US Stocks: 25.03%
==Global Bonds== 38.2%
US Bonds: 19.96%
Ex-US Bonds: 18.23%
==Alts== 2.1%
Crypto: 1.94%
Gold Backed ETFs: 0.17%
Have you, or anyone who invests in gold and in crypto, looked at Paxos Gold? One common criticism of gold is that it pays no dividends or interest. With this, you could lend it and earn interest.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by corp_sharecropper »

Anyone else have the problem that crypto gains have reached a level where they are a much larger slice of your AA?

I'd love to rebalance but am extremely averse to the idea of paying cap gains. In fact, much of my cap gains are still short term as of today. The weight crypto has grown to is quite in excess of my original intentions and it will take a long time to rebalance using new money going to other asset classes, I'm talking a few years if crypto just stays at the current level the whole time. It also pains me to sell because I'll probably never own this amount of crypto (denominated in it's own currency) again for a very long time, the idea of going from X.X number of coins to 0.X is irrationally unappealing to me.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

SteelyEyed wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 11:37 am
Have you, or anyone who invests in gold and in crypto, looked at Paxos Gold? One common criticism of gold is that it pays no dividends or interest. With this, you could lend it and earn interest.
I'd never heard of it.

How much market share does it have vs gold ETFs?

This is cap-weighted, after all.

It might be too small.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Corsair »

Sold my BTC and increased my commodity holdings (part of my normal AA)

BTC is down over the last month compared to the shiny metal and doggy coin… weak
Last edited by Corsair on Fri May 07, 2021 12:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by decapod10 »

corp_sharecropper wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 11:53 am Anyone else have the problem that crypto gains have reached a level where they are a much larger slice of your AA?

I'd love to rebalance but am extremely averse to the idea of paying cap gains. In fact, much of my cap gains are still short term as of today. The weight crypto has grown to is quite in excess of my original intentions and it will take a long time to rebalance using new money going to other asset classes, I'm talking a few years if crypto just stays at the current level the whole time. It also pains me to sell because I'll probably never own this amount of crypto (denominated in it's own currency) again for a very long time, the idea of going from X.X number of coins to 0.X is irrationally unappealing to me.
I think it part it depends on your financial situation. I just started buying in January and I went from < 2% in January to around 17% now, though taxes are going to take a huge cut of that because I wasn't just buying and holding. But our retirement and financial situation would be secure even if all the crypto went to zero, and I knew from when I started that I was hoping for a jackpot more than anything. Like if I had enough to just FIRE, I might consider just liquidating it all at that point.

If I was in a position where I would feel insecure financially if crypto went to zero, I would definitely consider rebalancing into a position where the threat of crypto suddenly dropping 80% wouldn't keep me up at night.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

corp_sharecropper wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 11:53 am Anyone else have the problem that crypto gains have reached a level where they are a much larger slice of your AA?

I'd love to rebalance but am extremely averse to the idea of paying cap gains. In fact, much of my cap gains are still short term as of today. The weight crypto has grown to is quite in excess of my original intentions and it will take a long time to rebalance using new money going to other asset classes, I'm talking a few years if crypto just stays at the current level the whole time. It also pains me to sell because I'll probably never own this amount of crypto (denominated in it's own currency) again for a very long time, the idea of going from X.X number of coins to 0.X is irrationally unappealing to me.
I'd just suck it up and pay the taxes, reduce your risk exposure to match your AA per your IPS.

You're going to have to pay the taxes someday.

Unless you want to roll the dice on holding for another year to get LTCG....
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SteelyEyed
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by SteelyEyed »

watchnerd wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 12:05 pm
SteelyEyed wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 11:37 am
Have you, or anyone who invests in gold and in crypto, looked at Paxos Gold? One common criticism of gold is that it pays no dividends or interest. With this, you could lend it and earn interest.
I'd never heard of it.

How much market share does it have vs gold ETFs?

This is cap-weighted, after all.

It might be too small.
Right, it has a market cap of only ~$110M.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

GR8FUL-D wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 11:02 am

It seems to me that most forum members--regardless if they are pro or con crypto investing/speculation--feel that there are too many crypto threads. I wonder if a reasonable solution would be to create three or four separate "Mega" crypto threads (similar to the Refinance Mega Thread)? For example there could be the "Bitcoin Mega Thread", the "Ethereum Mega Thread", the "Alt-coin Mega Thread", and perhaps the "Defi Lending/staking Mega Thread" or something along those lines.
Circa 2007 in the housing boom, right before the bust, it was all REITS REITS REITS.

It's cyclical.

Whatever is outperforming tends to bubble up.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by danbdzs »

watchnerd wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 6:56 pm
danbdzs wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 6:45 pm I like that cryptocurrencies fall.
Probably everybody wishes they had bought more(some?) bitcoin earlier
Not me.

I don't want to kill the planet.

It's the most environmentally unfriendly way to conduct financial transactions currently in existence.
Interesting to see how we thought less than two months ago, is it not?
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watchnerd
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

danbdzs wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 2:24 pm Interesting to see how we thought less than two months ago, is it not?
It's still shameful and wasteful of energy.

But I realized I owned a lot of environmentally awful companies in TSM, too.

Purging my portfolio of everything that is environmentally harmful is incredibly tough.
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danbdzs
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by danbdzs »

watchnerd wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 2:26 pm
danbdzs wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 2:24 pm Interesting to see how we thought less than two months ago, is it not?
It's still shameful and wasteful of energy.

But I realized I owned a lot of environmentally awful companies in TSM, too.

Purging my portfolio of everything that is environmentally harmful is incredibly tough.
I was indeed tempted to point out a similar 'TSM' argument.

I think the ability to change your mind (or adapt) as things change (or we realise they do) is something to praise.

Cheers :beer
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Aaand...it'sgone »

corp_sharecropper wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 11:53 am Anyone else have the problem that crypto gains have reached a level where they are a much larger slice of your AA?
My crypto allocation has gone from 3% up to 7% now (mostly etherium). So far, I'm just hodling, but I may feel differently if it starts getting above 10% of my AA. Though, I just staked my ether, so not much I can do about it for near-term.
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