Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

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vanbogle59
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by vanbogle59 »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 11:49 am ? not sure why you're jumping on this particular line, I was just explaining how extreme it was for FM to become 90% of your NW.
Sorry, I did not mean to appear confrontational.
It just seems to me that you control all the levers here.
It's not like you are operating within some externally imposed constraints and need advice on how to minimize their impact on your plans.
You are asking how to limit the impact of your choices on your choices.
I think you are bearing the burden of freedom.
Could be worse.
Marseille07
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Marseille07 »

vanbogle59 wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 11:53 am
Marseille07 wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 11:49 am ? not sure why you're jumping on this particular line, I was just explaining how extreme it was for FM to become 90% of your NW.
Sorry, I did not mean to appear confrontational.
It just seems to me that you control all the levers here.
It's not like you are operating within some externally imposed constraints and need advice on how to minimize their impact on your plans.
You are asking how to limit the impact of your choices on your choices.
I think you are bearing the burden of freedom.
Could be worse.
The "funny money" growing too big is actually a nice problem to have. Most people don't even get there to the point where it becomes a problem.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

Would I be incorrect in thinking many people invest in crypto fully knowing they could lose everything they put in, even in some cases thinking that is the most likely outcome, but because of the potential high reward they have made the calculation that it is worth it to them to put in $X they feel they can afford to lose and just want to let it ride?
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
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vanbogle59
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by vanbogle59 »

TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 12:30 pm Would I be incorrect in thinking many people invest in crypto fully knowing they could lose everything they put in, even in some cases thinking that is the most likely outcome, but because of the potential high reward they have made the calculation that it is worth it to them to put in $X they feel they can afford to lose and just want to let it ride?
I'm HODLing!
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TheTimeLord
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 12:06 pm
vanbogle59 wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 11:53 am
Marseille07 wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 11:49 am ? not sure why you're jumping on this particular line, I was just explaining how extreme it was for FM to become 90% of your NW.
Sorry, I did not mean to appear confrontational.
It just seems to me that you control all the levers here.
It's not like you are operating within some externally imposed constraints and need advice on how to minimize their impact on your plans.
You are asking how to limit the impact of your choices on your choices.
I think you are bearing the burden of freedom.
Could be worse.
The "funny money" growing too big is actually a nice problem to have. Most people don't even get there to the point where it becomes a problem.
Yeah, I am not understanding how fun money could ever grow too large. I think what people are missing is that the other 95% of your portfolio has been growing like any standard BH portfolio. So if 5% of your portfolio has grown to 90% of your portfolio it has outperformed the market by some incredible multiple. Having 5% of your money grow to 90% of your portfolio does not negate the growth of the other 95%, it just reflects the insane outperformance of the 5%.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
Williams57
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Williams57 »

TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 12:30 pm Would I be incorrect in thinking many people invest in crypto fully knowing they could lose everything they put in, even in some cases thinking that is the most likely outcome, but because of the potential high reward they have made the calculation that it is worth it to them to put in $X they feel they can afford to lose and just want to let it ride?
I don't think you'd be incorrect. Even some investment managers now suggest 1-5% asset share to crypto, for the same reason you've outlined.

Gains and losses seem to be 10+ fold of the total market index on any given day, in the same direction. And hopefully, long term the gains will also be 10+ fold, but it may all as well turn to 0.
runninginvestor
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by runninginvestor »

watchnerd wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 3:22 pm
runninginvestor wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 3:13 pm
watchnerd wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 1:10 pm
runninginvestor wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 11:55 am Turkey announced a ban on crypto Friday (effective end of April). Although they weren't clear on whether that was only transactional use or if it included trading.
I'm still reading the details.

But given the capital flight that has happened from the Turkish lira in the last month, I'm not surprised that the Turkish government is trying to plug a hole.

I could see other inflationist developing market currencies making similar moves for similar reasons.
Yeah I wasn't trying to contradict you or anything (wanted to mention this since these threads get contentious here, sadly), it was just very recent and coincided with your comment about bans. I feel like I saw a glimpse of it in the news on Friday, and then it was gone. Which is odd since it's a top 20 economy.

It seems like the trend for a lot of countries is that they are banning banking with cryptocurrency - under the guide of fraud prevention. And if they don't do an outright ban they still allow trading. Seems like there's just going to be a continual push by countries for this asset to be a speculative/investment asset class over direct transactional use....until they digitize domestic currency.

Which is in line with your thoughts on countries trying to protect their own currency with banking restrictions. I don't know how many countries will openly say they prohibit banking with crypto because of fears against their own denominations, because if they did confidence in the domestic currency would likely falter.
I concur.
Timely, ha.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by JonnyDVM »

Back to the soaring thread !
I’d trade it all for a little more | -C Montgomery Burns
Aaand...it'sgone
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Aaand...it'sgone »

JonnyDVM wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 11:47 am Back to the soaring thread !
Excellent! I managed to sell my doge and roll the proceeds into another etherium. The speculative, fun money part of my portfolio has had a good week.

Though, I'll never forgive myself for not holding onto $500 of doge from last spring... Would have been worth $100K+ :annoyed
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by JonnyDVM »

Aaand...it'sgone wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 3:56 pm
JonnyDVM wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 11:47 am Back to the soaring thread !
Excellent! I managed to sell my doge and roll the proceeds into another etherium. The speculative, fun money part of my portfolio has had a good week.

Though, I'll never forgive myself for not holding onto $500 of doge from last spring... Would have been worth $100K+ :annoyed
It was so obvious too. How could you have been so foolish ????
I’d trade it all for a little more | -C Montgomery Burns
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by OohLaLa »

JonnyDVM wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 6:13 pm
Aaand...it'sgone wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 3:56 pm
JonnyDVM wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 11:47 am Back to the soaring thread !
Excellent! I managed to sell my doge and roll the proceeds into another etherium. The speculative, fun money part of my portfolio has had a good week.

Though, I'll never forgive myself for not holding onto $500 of doge from last spring... Would have been worth $100K+ :annoyed
It was so obvious too. How could you have been so foolish ????
What surprises me more is the fact that people would exit such small positions. Aaand, did you just feel like moving it into another currency at the time?

I know today was mostly green all over, but these recent movements in most of the currencies (huge increase followed by a decline over the last few days) makes me wonder how far back this surge will retrace its steps.

Related to that, does anyone have a good source to track the progress of each BTC cycle, until it "halves" again? I'm surprised that BTC seems to exhibit a clear up/ down cycle that people say is closely related to halving. Wouldn't that be something that would be easily trackable and actionable on the buy and sell sides?
Aaand...it'sgone
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Aaand...it'sgone »

I was new to crypto and literally just bought a little bit of several coins with no research. I think my thought process was simply "wow, it went up 100% in a day, what luck. That probably won't happen again soon." Then sold it and put the proceeds into Bitcoin.

If only I'd been smart/foolish enough to realize the potential of doge.

Is this the sort of thing you're looking for? https://www.blockchaincenter.net/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/. I can't vouch for its validity in any way.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by SlowMovingInvestor »

DOGE used to be 50% of my FOMO portfolio, now it's 300% of my portfolio :mrgreen: :confused
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by abuss368 »

MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Mon Mar 15, 2021 2:44 pm Bitcoin down (close to 10%) to 56k from it's weekend high of 60k+.
I could not speculate in this. There is no intrinsic value and speculators are hoping to one day sell it for a higher amount than they bought it for to someone else.

Tony
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vanbogle59
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by vanbogle59 »

OohLaLa wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:36 pm What surprises me more is the fact that people would exit such small positions.
No fair rubbing it in.
OohLaLa wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:36 pm BTC seems to exhibit a clear up/ down cycle that people say is closely related to halving. Wouldn't that be something that would be easily trackable and actionable on the buy and sell sides?
Oh my.

People say if you combine that signal (plotted on a logarithmic candle stick) with a good set of Tarot cards, you will be rich by June (when the BTC halving and the year's halving intersect with the year of the dragon eating the monkey - traditionally the most bullish of all Zodiac auras).

Sorry, I shouldn't type and drink at the same time. It releases the snark monster.
Trackable - yes. just google it
Actionable - no. predicting is hard, especially the future
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by JHU ALmuni »

SlowMovingInvestor wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:50 pm DOGE used to be 50% of my FOMO portfolio, now it's 300% of my portfolio :mrgreen: :confused
Doge was under 1% of my real-life portfolio just weeks ago and now close to 50% and actually made my NW reach 7 figures for the first time ever. Very exciting...
Williams57
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Williams57 »

OohLaLa wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:36 pm
JonnyDVM wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 6:13 pm
Aaand...it'sgone wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 3:56 pm
JonnyDVM wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 11:47 am Back to the soaring thread !
Excellent! I managed to sell my doge and roll the proceeds into another etherium. The speculative, fun money part of my portfolio has had a good week.

Though, I'll never forgive myself for not holding onto $500 of doge from last spring... Would have been worth $100K+ :annoyed
It was so obvious too. How could you have been so foolish ????
What surprises me more is the fact that people would exit such small positions. Aaand, did you just feel like moving it into another currency at the time?

I know today was mostly green all over, but these recent movements in most of the currencies (huge increase followed by a decline over the last few days) makes me wonder how far back this surge will retrace its steps.

Related to that, does anyone have a good source to track the progress of each BTC cycle, until it "halves" again? I'm surprised that BTC seems to exhibit a clear up/ down cycle that people say is closely related to halving. Wouldn't that be something that would be easily trackable and actionable on the buy and sell sides?

I expect most coins to retrace 80-90% at some point, sooner than later. I am short term bearish, long term bullish. I will rebalance when it happens. Hopefully stocks won't be down at the same time, but likely will, just not to 80-90%.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by vanbogle59 »

Williams57 wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:30 pm I expect most coins to retrace 80-90% at some point, sooner than later. I am short term bearish, long term bullish. I will rebalance when it happens. Hopefully stocks won't be down at the same time, but likely will, just not to 80-90%.
If stocks and coins are both down 80-90%, I will meet you, Mel and Tina at Thunderdome.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Williams57 »

vanbogle59 wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:39 pm
Williams57 wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:30 pm I expect most coins to retrace 80-90% at some point, sooner than later. I am short term bearish, long term bullish. I will rebalance when it happens. Hopefully stocks won't be down at the same time, but likely will, just not to 80-90%.
If stocks and coins are both down 80-90%, I will meet you, Mel and Tina at Thunderdome.
Coins - I think it's a matter of when not if. Long term it doesn't matter though, as I am bullish.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by 000 »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:38 am Now of course the tricky thing is, what do you do when funny money trades do so well.
What do you think about this?

Until the portfolio is big enough (to retire or whatever), let funny money ride or be "rolled over" to other funny money trades.

Once the portfolio is big enough, rebalance one time back to the starting funny money allocation (x%). Don't rebalance funny money allocation again.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by OohLaLa »

vanbogle59 wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 8:51 pm
OohLaLa wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:36 pm What surprises me more is the fact that people would exit such small positions.
No fair rubbing it in.
Not rubbing anything in. I find it funny you took the time to edit out my question to him/ her because I am genuinely curious why they moved 500 bucks that were lying around.

I've had cases where I committed significant funds to an investment and wondered what the hell was going on, then thought of just moving on. I've also had a case where I "passed up" a chance to cash out 3x my principal before it plummeted, and it wasn't a few hundred bucks, so I understand the feeling of regret very well. :oops:
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by OohLaLa »

I wonder if the old shiba will run out of energy. Started off as a joke, has low practicality (no support unless you want to buy pizza at your local gas station), super-slow transaction speed and appreciation is fueled by Musk tweets... weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee :mrgreen:
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Marseille07 »

000 wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 10:04 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:38 am Now of course the tricky thing is, what do you do when funny money trades do so well.
What do you think about this?

Until the portfolio is big enough (to retire or whatever), let funny money ride or be "rolled over" to other funny money trades.

Once the portfolio is big enough, rebalance one time back to the starting funny money allocation (x%). Don't rebalance funny money allocation again.
I don't rebalance in/out of FM, as neither makes sense for managing FM.
Once the portfolio is big enough, I will simply make withdrawals from whichever has more money (FM or BH). This way, I'm always "nudging" to rebalance toward 50/50.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by 000 »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 10:28 pm I don't rebalance in/out of FM, as neither makes sense for managing FM.
Once the portfolio is big enough, I will simply make withdrawals from whichever has more money (FM or BH). This way, I'm always "nudging" to rebalance toward 50/50.
But if you have enough and have won the game, why keep taking the FM risk if you don't need to?
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Marseille07 »

000 wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 10:30 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 10:28 pm I don't rebalance in/out of FM, as neither makes sense for managing FM.
Once the portfolio is big enough, I will simply make withdrawals from whichever has more money (FM or BH). This way, I'm always "nudging" to rebalance toward 50/50.
But if you have enough and have won the game, why keep taking the FM risk if you don't need to?
I think this really depends on the FM risk. My FM trades aren't as crazy as holding doge or GME. They're more like holding UPRO.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by dru808 »

000 wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 10:30 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 10:28 pm I don't rebalance in/out of FM, as neither makes sense for managing FM.
Once the portfolio is big enough, I will simply make withdrawals from whichever has more money (FM or BH). This way, I'm always "nudging" to rebalance toward 50/50.
But if you have enough and have won the game, why keep taking the FM risk if you don't need to?
Maybe it’s fun to people who call it fun money.
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000
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by 000 »

dru808 wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 11:26 pm
000 wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 10:30 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 10:28 pm I don't rebalance in/out of FM, as neither makes sense for managing FM.
Once the portfolio is big enough, I will simply make withdrawals from whichever has more money (FM or BH). This way, I'm always "nudging" to rebalance toward 50/50.
But if you have enough and have won the game, why keep taking the FM risk if you don't need to?
Maybe it’s fun to people who call it fun money.
I believe the term is funny money. :greedy
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by HanSolo »

OohLaLa wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 10:17 pm I wonder if the old shiba will run out of energy. Started off as a joke,
Are there still people who don't know bitcoin was started as a joke?

LOL
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Prahasaurus »

HomerJ wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 11:31 am
Marseille07 wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 11:08 am
qwerty123 wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:06 am I guess my point is - saying "I just wrote off the seed money, so I never need to rebalance out" may be true for now, but at some amount of growth you should reconsider that - if 1% turns into 90%, you should probably sell a little.
Realistically though, if funny money trades starting at 5% becoming 90% of your NW, then you can pretty much retire at that point. And what I would do then is to simply make monthly withdrawals from the funny money side to nudge toward 50/50 with your Boglehead side.
That's what people did in the dot-com era. And then they had to go back to work.

You can't just retire with 90% of your net-worth in "funny money", because, by definition, that stock/investment is risky, and can crash as fast as it went up.

If your funny money account became so large that you go ahead and retire, the smart move would be to first rebalance nearly all of it back to a boring traditional Boglehead portfolio, not slowly take withdrawals to move yourself back to a balanced portfolio.
Well, again, it's not "funny money," unless you have no idea what you are doing and you are all in on DOGE. Then ok, whatever, gamble away. But the (admittedly high) number of people who do that should not detract from those that research and invest in a more structured, I believe more intelligent, way.

Also, I'm not so sure the "smart move" is to move it all back into a traditional Bogleheads portfolio right now, in one lump sum. With hindsight, perhaps, but then we are being results based and not looking at real EV at this point in time. What if I'm given 5-1 odds to draw to a flush in poker. Should I? From an EV standpoint, absolutely! But I'll still lose 65% of the time...

Let's say you have a portfolio that is 75% crypto, and you could sell it all today, pay your taxes, put the rest in your standard 60-40 portfolio, and retire. Not a luxurious retirement, but fairly solid (economy class flights, Dominican cigars). Should you? What if you believe your crypto portfolio is significantly undervalued at these prices, and hence think selling now is negative EV? What if you want to sell to reduce risk, but can't stomach selling Ethereum at a 260 billion market cap, when you are convinced it's a 1 trillion asset minimum, today (so 3-4x from here, even more longer term)?

Wouldn't the better strategy be to take some profits now, especially in more speculative tokens, but keep holding a large crypto portfolio until the market gets a bit closer to what you believe is fair value? You can say the market is already fairly valued by definition, but I would counter that the crypto market is incredibly inefficient, just look at DOGE or XRP... And hence "nobody knows nothing" does not apply to crypto. But I would say that, wouldn't I? I could be dead wrong. There's the rub!

Again, I have no crystal ball, in hindsight perhaps selling everything now could be the better plan. We just don't know. I'm only trying to balance risk with expected reward, and it's quite challenging. To say the best option is to sell it all is probably not the ideal EV approach. Even if it turns out to be correct, in hindsight.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Gadget »

JHU ALmuni wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:03 pm
SlowMovingInvestor wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:50 pm DOGE used to be 50% of my FOMO portfolio, now it's 300% of my portfolio :mrgreen: :confused
Doge was under 1% of my real-life portfolio just weeks ago and now close to 50% and actually made my NW reach 7 figures for the first time ever. Very exciting...
I really hope you've been selling some and taking some profits. Even if for some crazy reason you are bullish on dodgecoin.

As someone who played and won big in the first GME frenzy, all of the best moves I made felt stupid at the time. They felt like I was losing money, because GME would keep going up after I sold. I never timed the peak, but I was periodically taking profits off the table as it kept going up, and then down. Even though my GME gains never went anywhere close to 50% NW. More like 2% to 12% in the end. I think if I timed it perfectly, I'd have gone from 2% to about 22%. But nobody times it perfectly when speculating.
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by HomerJ »

Prahasaurus wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 2:12 am
HomerJ wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 11:31 am
Marseille07 wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 11:08 am
qwerty123 wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:06 am I guess my point is - saying "I just wrote off the seed money, so I never need to rebalance out" may be true for now, but at some amount of growth you should reconsider that - if 1% turns into 90%, you should probably sell a little.
Realistically though, if funny money trades starting at 5% becoming 90% of your NW, then you can pretty much retire at that point. And what I would do then is to simply make monthly withdrawals from the funny money side to nudge toward 50/50 with your Boglehead side.
That's what people did in the dot-com era. And then they had to go back to work.

You can't just retire with 90% of your net-worth in "funny money", because, by definition, that stock/investment is risky, and can crash as fast as it went up.

If your funny money account became so large that you go ahead and retire, the smart move would be to first rebalance nearly all of it back to a boring traditional Boglehead portfolio, not slowly take withdrawals to move yourself back to a balanced portfolio.
Well, again, it's not "funny money," unless you have no idea what you are doing and you are all in on DOGE. Then ok, whatever, gamble away. But the (admittedly high) number of people who do that should not detract from those that research and invest in a more structured, I believe more intelligent, way.

Also, I'm not so sure the "smart move" is to move it all back into a traditional Bogleheads portfolio right now, in one lump sum. With hindsight, perhaps, but then we are being results based and not looking at real EV at this point in time. What if I'm given 5-1 odds to draw to a flush in poker. Should I? From an EV standpoint, absolutely! But I'll still lose 65% of the time...

Let's say you have a portfolio that is 75% crypto, and you could sell it all today, pay your taxes, put the rest in your standard 60-40 portfolio, and retire. Not a luxurious retirement, but fairly solid (economy class flights, Dominican cigars). Should you? What if you believe your crypto portfolio is significantly undervalued at these prices, and hence think selling now is negative EV? What if you want to sell to reduce risk, but can't stomach selling Ethereum at a 260 billion market cap, when you are convinced it's a 1 trillion asset minimum, today (so 3-4x from here, even more longer term)?

Wouldn't the better strategy be to take some profits now, especially in more speculative tokens, but keep holding a large crypto portfolio until the market gets a bit closer to what you believe is fair value? You can say the market is already fairly valued by definition, but I would counter that the crypto market is incredibly inefficient, just look at DOGE or XRP... And hence "nobody knows nothing" does not apply to crypto. But I would say that, wouldn't I? I could be dead wrong. There's the rub!

Again, I have no crystal ball, in hindsight perhaps selling everything now could be the better plan. We just don't know. I'm only trying to balance risk with expected reward, and it's quite challenging. To say the best option is to sell it all is probably not the ideal EV approach. Even if it turns out to be correct, in hindsight.
Doesn't matter what you "believe". No one can see the future.

Why do we save and invest money? If you've made enough to be financially independent for the rest of your life, why would you risk it by continuing to hold 90% in a risky investment?

You say you are trying to balance risk with expected reward, but we don't really know the risk, and we don't really know the expected reward.

I'm saying, if one already has hit your number where you could retire with economy flights and Dominican cigars, you DON'T bet 75%-90% at the poker table, trying to pull a flush. There's no reason to bet such large amounts anymore. The reward isn't that great (More comfortable flights the 10 times you fly a year, and I guess Cuban cigars), while the risk is large (lose half your money in a week, and now you have to start saving again for another 10 years).
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Random Musings »

HanSolo wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 11:37 pm
OohLaLa wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 10:17 pm I wonder if the old shiba will run out of energy. Started off as a joke,
Are there still people who don't know bitcoin was started as a joke?

LOL
Dogecoin was. Briefly, it was worth $50 billion. In the end, I think the joke will be on those bagholders.

RM
I figure the odds be fifty-fifty I just might have something to say. FZ
Marseille07
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Marseille07 »

HomerJ wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 3:49 pm Doesn't matter what you "believe". No one can see the future.

Why do we save and invest money? If you've made enough to be financially independent for the rest of your life, why would you risk it by continuing to hold 90% in a risky investment?

You say you are trying to balance risk with expected reward, but we don't really know the risk, and we don't really know the expected reward.

I'm saying, if one already has hit your number where you could retire with economy flights and Dominican cigars, you DON'T bet 75%-90% at the poker table, trying to pull a flush. There's no reason to bet such large amounts anymore. The reward isn't that great (More comfortable flights the 10 times you fly a year, and I guess Cuban cigars), while the risk is large (lose half your money in a week, and now you have to start saving again for another 10 years).
Not sure why I missed your previous reply.

Basically how you do it post-hitting-number really depends on your risk appetite. I see my "funny money" trade possibly hitting 50%, but probably not 90%. Also, I do know the expected risk / reward of this trade, much like the extent of how we know the historical performance of SPX. Consider my funny money trade like someone trading SSO / UPRO tactically.

Of course this is all hypothetical, as my FM trades are nowhere near 50% and won't get there anytime soon.
JBTX
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by JBTX »

The whole Dogecoin thing has to be problematic for crypto investors...

1. The fact that it was literally a joke and zoomed to $50 billion kind of takes away the narrative of the seriousness of crypto as an investment, driven by some sort of fundamental value

2. It shows that anybody can enter the crypto space with no limit on the number of currencies

3. It could change the narrative from chasing established coins to instead jumping on new ones hoping to make exponential gains.

Nonetheless, my $400 coinbase weekend investment is now $386, for all of those keeping score. Small Bitcoin losses partially offset with small etherium gains. For now I'm going to have to keep relying on my Boglehead portfolio until my crypto positions explode through the stratosphere.
mcblum
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by mcblum »

I am 77 years old. I am retired three years and have just gotten my second comma. The idea of losing
5% of my very hard won retirement portfolio in gambling on something so opaque makes my blood run cold. I have read the article on Wikipedia three times and still don't understand Crypto.

I also don't understand "fun Money". Too much is riding on the line.

Marty
BHawks87
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by BHawks87 »

mcblum wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:57 am I am 77 years old. I am retired three years and have just gotten my second comma. The idea of losing
5% of my very hard won retirement portfolio in gambling on something so opaque makes my blood run cold. I have read the article on Wikipedia three times and still don't understand Crypto.

I also don't understand "fun Money". Too much is riding on the line.

Marty
If you really want to freeze those veins then do some reading on NFT's!
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MinnGuyInvesting
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by MinnGuyInvesting »

mcblum wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:57 am I am 77 years old. I am retired three years and have just gotten my second comma. The idea of losing
5% of my very hard won retirement portfolio in gambling on something so opaque makes my blood run cold. I have read the article on Wikipedia three times and still don't understand Crypto.

I also don't understand "fun Money". Too much is riding on the line.

Marty
Too much is riding on the line?
What do you mean by that.

We're not a gun point.

Your life should be about fun.
If you aren't having fun, what do you do with your money?
Index ETF's 45% |ARK Funds 30% | AAPL 5% | TSLA 4% | GOOGL 2% | AMZN 1.3% |Other stocks 4.5% | BTC/ETH 9% |
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HomerJ
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by HomerJ »

MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 3:47 pm
mcblum wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:57 am I am 77 years old. I am retired three years and have just gotten my second comma. The idea of losing
5% of my very hard won retirement portfolio in gambling on something so opaque makes my blood run cold. I have read the article on Wikipedia three times and still don't understand Crypto.

I also don't understand "fun Money". Too much is riding on the line.

Marty
Too much is riding on the line?
What do you mean by that.

We're not a gun point.

Your life should be about fun.
If you aren't having fun, what do you do with your money?
You're young, we're old.

You're taking $5000 to Vegas for "fun money". I did that too, back in the day.

You're asking why don't we want to take $100,000 to Vegas...

If it took me 25 years to save $2 million, gambling $100,000 (5%) isn't going to be "fun". Not for me. Maybe it will be for you.

There are a thousand other things I could do with that $100,000 instead of gambling it to give myself a thrill.

There are plenty of other kinds of fun in life.

Oh, and "riding on the line" is a craps reference. You place your bets on the line.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
occambogle
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by occambogle »

Wow... BTC is veritably in "Free Fall" - currently $51,200. I find it interesting that Ethereum hasn't dropped so much at all.
Marseille07
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Marseille07 »

occambogle wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:18 pm Wow... BTC is veritably in "Free Fall" - currently $51,200. I find it interesting that Ethereum hasn't dropped so much at all.
People still pay 51K USD for this :confused
Williams57
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Williams57 »

occambogle wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:18 pm Wow... BTC is veritably in "Free Fall" - currently $51,200. I find it interesting that Ethereum hasn't dropped so much at all.
I'm a crypto bull, but I expect to see BTC at $10k at some point. Temporarily, of course.
decapod10
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by decapod10 »

occambogle wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:18 pm Wow... BTC is veritably in "Free Fall" - currently $51,200. I find it interesting that Ethereum hasn't dropped so much at all.
ETH gained a lot earlier in the day before the drop. It was at an all time high a few hours ago, then dropped 10% from there, lol.
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watchnerd
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by watchnerd »

Williams57 wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 12:42 pm And hopefully, long term the gains will also be 10+ fold
Do you mean 10x per year?

Or 10x over a 20 year span?
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Ed 2
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Ed 2 »

To the center of the Earth!
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Jags4186
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Jags4186 »

I would just like to share from another thread. Perhaps some of us can market time.
Jags4186 wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 8:05 am
Jags4186 wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:30 am Well folks, that’s it, top is in. I officially have purchased 1 ETH. Get out now.
I would just like to follow up on my earlier post. Since my purchase:

Bitcoin: Down 10%
Etherium: Down 13%
Dogecoin: Down 26%

Can’t say I didn’t warn ya
Williams57
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Williams57 »

watchnerd wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:35 pm
Williams57 wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 12:42 pm And hopefully, long term the gains will also be 10+ fold
Do you mean 10x per year?

Or 10x over a 20 year span?
10 fold of stock market gains in the next 5-10 years. So if stock market's long term gain is 7% annually on average, crypto's is 70%? For the near future.

My speculation: return multiplier is inversely proportional to acceptance, so maybe in 10 years the returns will be about the same as S&P 500? I say this and at the same time tell myself, how can you compare currency to stock market? Lol.
Jags4186
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Jags4186 »

Williams57 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:38 pm
watchnerd wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:35 pm
Williams57 wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 12:42 pm And hopefully, long term the gains will also be 10+ fold
Do you mean 10x per year?

Or 10x over a 20 year span?
10 fold of stock market gains in the next 5-10 years. So if stock market's long term gain is 7% annually, crypto's is 70%? For the near future.

My speculation: return multiplier is inversely proportional to acceptance, so maybe in 10 years the returns will be about the same as S&P 500? I say this and at the same time tell myself, how can you compare currency to stock market? Lol.
You really expect 70% CAGR over the next 10 years? So you’re saying if crypto’s current market cap is $1T you believe it’s going to be $201T in 10 years? Almost triple world GDP?
tradri
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by tradri »

Free Fall :sharebeer

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Prahasaurus
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by Prahasaurus »

JBTX wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:48 pm The whole Dogecoin thing has to be problematic for crypto investors...

1. The fact that it was literally a joke and zoomed to $50 billion kind of takes away the narrative of the seriousness of crypto as an investment, driven by some sort of fundamental value

2. It shows that anybody can enter the crypto space with no limit on the number of currencies

3. It could change the narrative from chasing established coins to instead jumping on new ones hoping to make exponential gains.

Nonetheless, my $400 coinbase weekend investment is now $386, for all of those keeping score. Small Bitcoin losses partially offset with small etherium gains. For now I'm going to have to keep relying on my Boglehead portfolio until my crypto positions explode through the stratosphere.
1 - Does it really, though? Did Pets.com invalidate internet commerce?

2 - It still amazes me that we are speaking about "currencies," as if Dogecoin (a currency) can be compared in any way with Aave or Curve (projects that are not, and never claimed to be, "currencies." But yeah, sure, it's true you can start your own coin tomorrow. And with savvy marketing maybe get some suckers to buy it. That is 99% of the market.

3 - Ha, there is no narrative of "chasing established coins," and in fact this market is all about throwing money after no name joke projects. And has been for the past 6 months or so. Aave is a serious project that can legitimately disrupt our banking system. Aave's market cap is 4.5 billion USD. Dogecoin, a joke project with savvy marketing, is worth 8x more than Aave. XRP, a clear scam to anyone paying attention, is worth 12x more than Aave.
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occambogle
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Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

Post by occambogle »

Ed 2 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:35 pm To the center of the Earth!
Very funny indeed.... :-)
Jags4186 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:41 pm You really expect 70% CAGR over the next 10 years? So you’re saying if crypto’s current market cap is $1T you believe it’s going to be $201T in 10 years? Almost triple world GDP?
Such limited "global" thinking... Elon Musk is going to Mars, you forgot to include Mars GDP in your calculations.... :-)
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