The homes of interest to us in Central FL stay 16-24 hours on the market. A friend selling his house recently commented "I have almost completed the house selling process, just need to list it"
Are we in a housing bubble?
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Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
Yep, crazy in wisconsin too.
For the past four years we've been wanting to move. Selling would be no problem. Buying is. Even a few years ago you had to react the day the house was put on the market because it'd be snapped up quickly. It's crazy. I'd be spending more time deliberating over a guitar than I would a house. This year it's gotten much worse.
Not sure how to navigate this one. Would really like to sell our house, and now would be a good time. It's at the point where it's getting older and at some point could use a new roof, furnace, etc. In the current climate buyers would be more apt to look the other way. Also, I didn't think a piece of real estate could make a person miserable but this place does. Wanted to get 10 years ago but there were kids, other factors, and now there's no where to go. Would be a little concerned that with the current frenzy the house I bought today wouldn't be worth as much 10 years from now.
Part of me thinks maybe I could sell at this "peak" and if worse comes to worse rent until things calm down. But of course who knows when that is, if ever, and there's a real possibility that if prices keep going up if I sell for 350k today I will be able to buy far less of a place a year from now (a year ago we were looking at houses around 315k; the same homes are now 400k). And if I do go into an apartment what do I do with the money? Cash doesn't seem like it's worth anything these days and I dont' know how I'd keep up with inflation.
For the past four years we've been wanting to move. Selling would be no problem. Buying is. Even a few years ago you had to react the day the house was put on the market because it'd be snapped up quickly. It's crazy. I'd be spending more time deliberating over a guitar than I would a house. This year it's gotten much worse.
Not sure how to navigate this one. Would really like to sell our house, and now would be a good time. It's at the point where it's getting older and at some point could use a new roof, furnace, etc. In the current climate buyers would be more apt to look the other way. Also, I didn't think a piece of real estate could make a person miserable but this place does. Wanted to get 10 years ago but there were kids, other factors, and now there's no where to go. Would be a little concerned that with the current frenzy the house I bought today wouldn't be worth as much 10 years from now.
Part of me thinks maybe I could sell at this "peak" and if worse comes to worse rent until things calm down. But of course who knows when that is, if ever, and there's a real possibility that if prices keep going up if I sell for 350k today I will be able to buy far less of a place a year from now (a year ago we were looking at houses around 315k; the same homes are now 400k). And if I do go into an apartment what do I do with the money? Cash doesn't seem like it's worth anything these days and I dont' know how I'd keep up with inflation.
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Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
Hi Everyone,
I'll guess I'll add my field report to the collection.
My wife and I live in a 1 bedroom condo in the urban center of Boston.
We saw the flip side of the suburban mania; urban center cooling.
Before covid hit we were looking for at least $650k; that was the floor.
We now just accepted an all-cash offer for $610k. For perspective, we hit the market pre-covid asking for $689, ended up asking for $629 a month ago.
We plan on renting for awhile as we really don't want to hit the suburban WFH market while there is still a mania going on.
I've heard inventory is just starting to inch up a bit. Maybe a sign that this is the beginning of the end of the craze?
I'll guess I'll add my field report to the collection.
My wife and I live in a 1 bedroom condo in the urban center of Boston.
We saw the flip side of the suburban mania; urban center cooling.
Before covid hit we were looking for at least $650k; that was the floor.
We now just accepted an all-cash offer for $610k. For perspective, we hit the market pre-covid asking for $689, ended up asking for $629 a month ago.
We plan on renting for awhile as we really don't want to hit the suburban WFH market while there is still a mania going on.
I've heard inventory is just starting to inch up a bit. Maybe a sign that this is the beginning of the end of the craze?
- firebirdparts
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Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
FWIW I see abandoned houses everywhere. Clearly there are areas of declining population, but even where there is growth, there is less and less appetite to care for homes just as there’s been less appetite to build them. I guess the number of people who will actually do things has declined.moneywise3 wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 9:52 pm Is there *any* market in US that is not hot? Initially we though only Central FL is crazy. We're in the market and were hoping to find reasonably priced housing for a 4BR 3Ba home built in last 10 years. We want good public schools. If this is the new normal, may have to relocate and look for a remote job.
This time is the same
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
I'm not very familiar with Central Florida. Which metro?moneywise3 wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 5:42 am The homes of interest to us in Central FL stay 16-24 hours on the market. A friend selling his house recently commented "I have almost completed the house selling process, just need to list it"
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
That's surprising...are there no escalation clauses in FL?moneywise3 wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 5:42 amThe homes of interest to us in Central FL stay 16-24 hours on the market. A friend selling his house recently commented "I have almost completed the house selling process, just need to list it"
In Western WA, no (smart) realtor sells a home in less than about a week. Typically list on a Wednesday, and select the best offer on the following Tuesday....give or take.
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
As for areas where home prices aren't rising fast, I'd look at the southeast excluding FL.
I have no idea why anyone would buy a house now after what happened with the great recession not that long ago.
I have no idea why anyone would buy a house now after what happened with the great recession not that long ago.
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
It's because people have extremely short memories.
Are we in a housing bubble? Well, it smells like a bubble. It looks like a bubble. So, we're in a bubble!!! Of course, this time it's different.... (jk)
Same as it ever was. People stretching to their budget's limit. Economy crashes. Nobody can sell houses. Banks take them and sell them off at 50 cents on the dollar. Are we at the point where folks are tapping their (fake) equity like a credit card to buy Bitcoin, live like a king, etc? I'm not sure what bubble phase that is, but it's usually pretty close to the pop.
Last edited by FIREchief on Tue May 25, 2021 7:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I am not a lawyer, accountant or financial advisor. Any advice or suggestions that I may provide shall be considered for entertainment purposes only.
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
But loans are underwritten based on real income. So...how is it even close to the same? Unless everyone quits/loses their job after getting a loan?FIREchief wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 7:48 pmIt's because people have extremely short memories.
Are we in a housing bubble? Well, it smells like a bubble. I looks like a bubble. So, we're in a bubble!!! Of course, this time it's different.... (jk)
Same as it ever was. People stretching to their budget's limit. Economy crashes. Nobody can sell houses. Banks take them and sell them off at 50 cents on the dollar. Are we at the point where folks are tapping their (fake) equity like a credit card to buy Bitcoin, live like a king, etc? I'm not sure what bubble phase that is, but it's usually pretty close to the pop.
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
My home is up $150k since last year, and I'm already receiving offers from banks to do a cash out refinance at a much higher rate than I have after my refinance last year. No idea why I would want to tap equity. Of course, if you think you're going to short sell in the future, it's a good opportunity to roll your student loan into your home equity and walk away from it in the future.FIREchief wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 7:48 pmIt's because people have extremely short memories.
Are we in a housing bubble? Well, it smells like a bubble. I looks like a bubble. So, we're in a bubble!!! Of course, this time it's different.... (jk)
Same as it ever was. People stretching to their budget's limit. Economy crashes. Nobody can sell houses. Banks take them and sell them off at 50 cents on the dollar. Are we at the point where folks are tapping their (fake) equity like a credit card to buy Bitcoin, live like a king, etc? I'm not sure what bubble phase that is, but it's usually pretty close to the pop.
No idea how badly this is going to end this time. But I wouldn't be surprised if my home dropped at least $50k.
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
It doesn't matter. When interest rates rise, houses at today's prices become unaffordable for many. When even 10% of people need to sell (relocation, job loss, life, etc...) it's a buyers market. Prices plunge. Even people who still have jobs see that they owe more on their house than they could sell it for, and many give it back to the bank. Wash, rinse, repeat. Don't you remember all this from 12 years ago?tj wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 7:50 pmBut loans are underwritten based on real income. So...how is it even close to the same? Unless everyone quits/loses their job after getting a loan?FIREchief wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 7:48 pmIt's because people have extremely short memories.
Are we in a housing bubble? Well, it smells like a bubble. I looks like a bubble. So, we're in a bubble!!! Of course, this time it's different.... (jk)
Same as it ever was. People stretching to their budget's limit. Economy crashes. Nobody can sell houses. Banks take them and sell them off at 50 cents on the dollar. Are we at the point where folks are tapping their (fake) equity like a credit card to buy Bitcoin, live like a king, etc? I'm not sure what bubble phase that is, but it's usually pretty close to the pop.
I am not a lawyer, accountant or financial advisor. Any advice or suggestions that I may provide shall be considered for entertainment purposes only.
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
True, but we certainly have an idea of how it "might" end.rockstar wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 7:53 pmMy home is up $150k since last year, and I'm already receiving offers from banks to do a cash out refinance at a much higher rate than I have after my refinance last year. No idea why I would want to tap equity. Of course, if you think you're going to short sell in the future, it's a good opportunity to roll your student loan into your home equity and walk away from it in the future.FIREchief wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 7:48 pmIt's because people have extremely short memories.
Are we in a housing bubble? Well, it smells like a bubble. I looks like a bubble. So, we're in a bubble!!! Of course, this time it's different.... (jk)
Same as it ever was. People stretching to their budget's limit. Economy crashes. Nobody can sell houses. Banks take them and sell them off at 50 cents on the dollar. Are we at the point where folks are tapping their (fake) equity like a credit card to buy Bitcoin, live like a king, etc? I'm not sure what bubble phase that is, but it's usually pretty close to the pop.
No idea how badly this is going to end this time. But I wouldn't be surprised if my home dropped at least $50k.
I am not a lawyer, accountant or financial advisor. Any advice or suggestions that I may provide shall be considered for entertainment purposes only.
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
Yes, it makes me super hesitant to buy. I bought in 2010. Buying in 2021 sounds depressing. But buying is still cheaper than renting in some areas, because the interest is so low.FIREchief wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 8:01 pmIt doesn't matter. When interest rates rise, houses at today's prices become unaffordable for many. When even 10% of people need to sell (relocation, job loss, life, etc...) it's a buyers market. Prices plunge. Even people who still have jobs see that they owe more on their house than they could sell it for, and many give it back to the bank. Wash, rinse, repeat. Don't you remember all this from 12 years ago?tj wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 7:50 pmBut loans are underwritten based on real income. So...how is it even close to the same? Unless everyone quits/loses their job after getting a loan?FIREchief wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 7:48 pmIt's because people have extremely short memories.
Are we in a housing bubble? Well, it smells like a bubble. I looks like a bubble. So, we're in a bubble!!! Of course, this time it's different.... (jk)
Same as it ever was. People stretching to their budget's limit. Economy crashes. Nobody can sell houses. Banks take them and sell them off at 50 cents on the dollar. Are we at the point where folks are tapping their (fake) equity like a credit card to buy Bitcoin, live like a king, etc? I'm not sure what bubble phase that is, but it's usually pretty close to the pop.
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
More inventory will have to come to market. Folks that were afraid to put their home up for sale because of COVID might. But the challenge now is that if you sell, there isn't enough homes to buy. So why sell? I think, this decision loop will delay the unwind. But that won't stop people from tapping equity in the meantime to buy whatever people buy these days when you're coming out of lockdown.FIREchief wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 8:02 pmTrue, but we certainly have an idea of how it "might" end.rockstar wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 7:53 pmMy home is up $150k since last year, and I'm already receiving offers from banks to do a cash out refinance at a much higher rate than I have after my refinance last year. No idea why I would want to tap equity. Of course, if you think you're going to short sell in the future, it's a good opportunity to roll your student loan into your home equity and walk away from it in the future.FIREchief wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 7:48 pmIt's because people have extremely short memories.
Are we in a housing bubble? Well, it smells like a bubble. I looks like a bubble. So, we're in a bubble!!! Of course, this time it's different.... (jk)
Same as it ever was. People stretching to their budget's limit. Economy crashes. Nobody can sell houses. Banks take them and sell them off at 50 cents on the dollar. Are we at the point where folks are tapping their (fake) equity like a credit card to buy Bitcoin, live like a king, etc? I'm not sure what bubble phase that is, but it's usually pretty close to the pop.
No idea how badly this is going to end this time. But I wouldn't be surprised if my home dropped at least $50k.
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
You're missing the big picture: the race to the bottom for that office expense. Employers want employees to move to low cost areas to slash their pay. Employees want to move to low cost areas to lower their office expense.Jags4186 wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 10:36 amI think the WFH thing is the biggest misread by most of the market. WFH isn’t good for the employee, especially if its like a 2 or 3-day a week thing. WFH comfortably requires a dedicated office space. If you have 2 WFH people that’s two dedicated office spaces in a home that used to require 0 or a temporary mixed use space. Everyone pushing for WFH is letting their employer push off the office expense onto the employee. It’s a whole lot more expensive to buy a bigger house than it is to commute to work…almostretired1965 wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 10:11 amIn the short run, I don't think prices will drop any time soon. But in my opinion, at least in parts of the country where land use restrictions are not an issue, the supply will catch up, though it might take 3 to 4 years. And so long as lending standards remain stringent, you are more likely to see housing stop appreciating rather than a precipitous drop. Another factor will be where WFH stabilizes at once the pandemic is really over.Jags4186 wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 9:57 amIt’s only unsustainable if people aren’t able to stay in the homes once they bought them. There was a bubble 15 years ago because unqualified folks were buying homes they couldn’t afford and when the economy went south everything popped. It seems today people have lots of money to spend and there is a short supply of desirable homes. Most people are unwilling to sell their home for less than they paid unless they are forced to. Otherwise they try to “wait it out”. I think we’re in for a long period of low supply and high demand. And if you’re someone who already owns a home thats increased in value, even if you’d like to sell unless your income has drastically increased you’re probably priced out of a “next step up” home, even considering your current property’s increased value.
Long term, WFH is going to usher in a surge of automation and/or offshoring that people really aren't thinking about yet.
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
I’d agree with this. Also, the lending requirements are quite stringent - it is not like 2006/7 when anyone with a pulse could get a mortgage.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 10:48 amPrices certainly won't continue going up at the pace that they have over the last few years, but that doesn't mean that the prices will ever go backwards or at least back to where they were. The three big factors driving up prices right now are a shortage of housing units, an increase in building costs, and record low mortgage rates. Ergo, this probably isn't a bubble.
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
FIREchief wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 8:01 pmIt doesn't matter. When interest rates rise, houses at today's prices become unaffordable for many. When even 10% of people need to sell (relocation, job loss, life, etc...) it's a buyers market. Prices plunge. Even people who still have jobs see that they owe more on their house than they could sell it for, and many give it back to the bank. Wash, rinse, repeat. Don't you remember all this from 12 years ago?tj wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 7:50 pmBut loans are underwritten based on real income. So...how is it even close to the same? Unless everyone quits/loses their job after getting a loan?FIREchief wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 7:48 pmIt's because people have extremely short memories.
Are we in a housing bubble? Well, it smells like a bubble. I looks like a bubble. So, we're in a bubble!!! Of course, this time it's different.... (jk)
Same as it ever was. People stretching to their budget's limit. Economy crashes. Nobody can sell houses. Banks take them and sell them off at 50 cents on the dollar. Are we at the point where folks are tapping their (fake) equity like a credit card to buy Bitcoin, live like a king, etc? I'm not sure what bubble phase that is, but it's usually pretty close to the pop.
Nope, sorry.... there is basically nothing comparable to 12 years ago. That was a building boom. This is a building shortage. Today is actually the long term result of what occurred 12 years ago (housing shortage due to developers folding shop for 5 years, even though population growth didn't stop).
I've watched real estate data closely for the last twenty + years. 2006/8 was driven by extremely easy money coming from wall st. There was never a shortage of housing.... and in actuality inventories were building for years before the bubble popped and the music stopped.
Don't bother fighting the last war. In many areas prices have only recently finally returned to 2005/6 levels.
- zaboomafoozarg
- Posts: 2430
- Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 12:34 pm
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
I might just rent forever. There is a certain type of stress that's avoided by not owning a house, and by being able to move with no strings attached.
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
Or moving offices away from cities to exurbs.ballons wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:00 pmYou're missing the big picture: the race to the bottom for that office expense. Employers want employees to move to low cost areas to slash their pay. Employees want to move to low cost areas to lower their office expense.Jags4186 wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 10:36 amI think the WFH thing is the biggest misread by most of the market. WFH isn’t good for the employee, especially if its like a 2 or 3-day a week thing. WFH comfortably requires a dedicated office space. If you have 2 WFH people that’s two dedicated office spaces in a home that used to require 0 or a temporary mixed use space. Everyone pushing for WFH is letting their employer push off the office expense onto the employee. It’s a whole lot more expensive to buy a bigger house than it is to commute to work…almostretired1965 wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 10:11 amIn the short run, I don't think prices will drop any time soon. But in my opinion, at least in parts of the country where land use restrictions are not an issue, the supply will catch up, though it might take 3 to 4 years. And so long as lending standards remain stringent, you are more likely to see housing stop appreciating rather than a precipitous drop. Another factor will be where WFH stabilizes at once the pandemic is really over.Jags4186 wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 9:57 amIt’s only unsustainable if people aren’t able to stay in the homes once they bought them. There was a bubble 15 years ago because unqualified folks were buying homes they couldn’t afford and when the economy went south everything popped. It seems today people have lots of money to spend and there is a short supply of desirable homes. Most people are unwilling to sell their home for less than they paid unless they are forced to. Otherwise they try to “wait it out”. I think we’re in for a long period of low supply and high demand. And if you’re someone who already owns a home thats increased in value, even if you’d like to sell unless your income has drastically increased you’re probably priced out of a “next step up” home, even considering your current property’s increased value.
Long term, WFH is going to usher in a surge of automation and/or offshoring that people really aren't thinking about yet.
“Every deduction is allowed as a matter of legislative grace.” US Federal Court
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
So, this time isn't being driven by "easy money?"rascott wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:57 pm I've watched real estate data closely for the last twenty + years. 2006/8 was driven by extremely easy money coming from wall st. There was never a shortage of housing.... and in actuality inventories were building for years before the bubble popped and the music stopped.
I am not a lawyer, accountant or financial advisor. Any advice or suggestions that I may provide shall be considered for entertainment purposes only.
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
FIREchief wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 1:17 amSo, this time isn't being driven by "easy money?"rascott wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:57 pm I've watched real estate data closely for the last twenty + years. 2006/8 was driven by extremely easy money coming from wall st. There was never a shortage of housing.... and in actuality inventories were building for years before the bubble popped and the music stopped.
Have you ever been involved with mortgage underwriting?
Were you 15 years ago?
Easy money was based upon if you could fog a mirror, you'd get a mortgage 15 years back. $0 down loans/100% financing to 22 year olds was common practice.
What's your background in the housing industry?
Yes housing is likely at a peak. Or it could grind higher for a year or two. A bubble indicates it will collapse. I don't see it..... the huge population of millenial generation is in prime home buying time of their lives, and they have money. They are highly qualified on an affordability level, by every measure. A long way from liar loans. Most are losing out to all cash offers.
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
willthrill81 wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 10:52 amHome ownership in the U.S. was around 44%, depending on which data is being used, before WW2. That increased to around 60% by 1960, and only small increases have been seen since (it's currently about 66% according to Statista). In this NBER article, Daniel Fetter examines this increase in home ownership between 1945-1960 and discusses various theories as to why it occurred. The increased availability of mortgages, especially VA mortgages, is one of the theoretical drivers, but there are others too (i.e., demographic changes, income, income tax, and others).Valuethinker wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 4:24 amWe know what the world looks like when middle class people cannot get mortgages.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Mon May 10, 2021 4:32 pmIf people couldn't get mortgages and had to pay cash for homes, would they be consuming as much housing as they do now?brianH wrote: ↑Mon May 10, 2021 2:25 pmWhy don't 30y mortgages make sense?New Providence wrote: ↑Mon May 10, 2021 10:17 am 30 yr mortgages make no sense. Housing prices would collapse if the maximum tenor was, say, 5 yrs.
Are consumers financially better off by consuming more or less housing?
BTW, the size of the median newly built home vs. the median household size has doubled over the last 50 years (i.e., twice as much housing space in newly built homes compared to the number of people likely to occupy them).
It looks like Britain up to about 1930. Everyone lives in rental properties - either rented from the state (social) or privately rented. The suburbs basically didn't exist.
It was the 1930s which saw the housing revolution in Britain. On a population 2/3rds size it is now, we built 50% more homes pa.
Similar period for the US before 1946 & Levittown etc. Go to the Tenement Museum on Lower East Side of NY -- a fascinating tour, when it reopens. Single family of 5-7 people (including grandmother) living in a 2-3 room apartment. You can see similar in Berlin.
Further, the increased availability of mortgages, especially very long-term mortgages (e.g., 30 years), has likely been a contributing factor in the doubling of the median size of the newly built home relative to the median U.S. household size since 1972 and the increased COL of many areas. The same argument holds true with student loans in the U.S. (i.e., increased availability of student loans was at least partially responsible for increasing the cost of higher education).
Housing and the construction industry is an important element of the overall economy. Lots of jobs are created by building bigger houses. And people want the larger houses. It's a great thing for the economy overall. And everyone is happy.
Why not inflate everything until the baseline is a 3k sq ft house for everyone? I'm only half joking. It creates amazing demand for consuming to fill a large house. And our entire economy is based upon consuming.
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
This isn’t really true. I am seeing jumbo loans with asset depletion with rates identical to regular loans in my area. 30 year fixed. Unless you are talking about regular non-mortgage loans and, at least margin loans based on collateral are quite low at the moment but the rates are variable there.fortunefavored wrote: ↑Mon May 10, 2021 4:07 pm You can get an idea of this if you try to get an alternative loan - asset depletion, collateral backed, etc. The "real" interest rate on these types of loans is probably 4 to 5 percent higher if you don't have that government backstop.
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
vieques wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 2:00 amThis isn’t really true. I am seeing jumbo loans with asset depletion with rates identical to regular loans in my area. 30 year fixed. Unless you are talking about regular non-mortgage loans and, at least margin loans based on collateral are quite low at the moment but the rates are variable there.fortunefavored wrote: ↑Mon May 10, 2021 4:07 pm You can get an idea of this if you try to get an alternative loan - asset depletion, collateral backed, etc. The "real" interest rate on these types of loans is probably 4 to 5 percent higher if you don't have that government backstop.
You're on point. Again, more comments from people that aren't in the game and just guessing
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
They aren't making any more land.™rascott wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 1:20 am Yes housing is likely at a peak. Or it could grind higher for a year or two. A bubble indicates it will collapse. I don't see it..... the huge population of millenial generation is in prime home buying time of their lives, and they have money. They are highly qualified on an affordability level, by every measure. A long way from liar loans. Most are losing out to all cash offers.
Buy now or be priced out forever.™
It's different this time.™
Gen-X have cash.™
The millenials have cash.™
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/23/robert- ... rkets.html
“In real terms, the home prices have never been so high. My data goes back over 100 years, so this is something,” said Shiller, co-founder of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. “I don’t think that the whole thing is explained by central bank policy. There is something about the sociology of markets that’s happening. Then there’s the question whether they can stabilize it without causing it to crash……uhhhh, that’s hard to do."
...
“If you go out three or five years, I could imagine they’d [prices] be substantially lower than they are now, and maybe that’s a good thing,” he added. “Not from the standpoint of a homeowner, but it’s from the standpoint of a prospective homeowner. It’s a good thing. If we have more houses, we’re better off.”
They clipped that from the quote but is found in the video.
Turns out millenials might not have cash.https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busines ... al-estate/
Laura Martin, chief operating officer of mortgage brokerage Matrix Mortgage Global, estimates that 60 per cent of her millennial clients are getting some help from their parents, either with the down payment or as co-signors of a mortgage, which puts parents on the hook for the monthly payments if their child is unable to make them.
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
No.rascott wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 1:20 amFIREchief wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 1:17 amSo, this time isn't being driven by "easy money?"rascott wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:57 pm I've watched real estate data closely for the last twenty + years. 2006/8 was driven by extremely easy money coming from wall st. There was never a shortage of housing.... and in actuality inventories were building for years before the bubble popped and the music stopped.
Have you ever been involved with mortgage underwriting?
None. What's yours?What's your background in the housing industry?
Really? LOL. They have money? From where?I don't see it..... the huge population of millenial generation is in prime home buying time of their lives, and they have money. They are highly qualified on an affordability level, by every measure.
I am not a lawyer, accountant or financial advisor. Any advice or suggestions that I may provide shall be considered for entertainment purposes only.
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Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
No it doesn’t. You have a laptop meaning work can be done at the kitchen table, in bed, office, back patio or out in the garage while the kids play in the driveway. Ask me how I know - been doing this since before it was cool.Jags4186 wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 10:36 am I think the WFH thing is the biggest misread by most of the market. WFH isn’t good for the employee, especially if its like a 2 or 3-day a week thing. WFH comfortably requires a dedicated office space. If you have 2 WFH people that’s two dedicated office spaces in a home that used to require 0 or a temporary mixed use space. Everyone pushing for WFH is letting their employer push off the office expense onto the employee. It’s a whole lot more expensive to buy a bigger house than it is to commute to work…
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
That’s great that works for you. Not everyone wants to work in bed, on the couch, or on the kitchen table. Ask me how I know.ddurrett896 wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 5:03 amNo it doesn’t. You have a laptop meaning work can be done at the kitchen table, in bed, office, back patio or out in the garage while the kids play in the driveway. Ask me how I know - been doing this since before it was cool.Jags4186 wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 10:36 am I think the WFH thing is the biggest misread by most of the market. WFH isn’t good for the employee, especially if its like a 2 or 3-day a week thing. WFH comfortably requires a dedicated office space. If you have 2 WFH people that’s two dedicated office spaces in a home that used to require 0 or a temporary mixed use space. Everyone pushing for WFH is letting their employer push off the office expense onto the employee. It’s a whole lot more expensive to buy a bigger house than it is to commute to work…
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
Oh I’m not missing the big picture. I’ve been saying this since the beginning of the pandemic. This is a way for lower wages, lower costs, and higher profits for a company. This is a shift of cost from employer to employee.ballons wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:00 pm You're missing the big picture: the race to the bottom for that office expense. Employers want employees to move to low cost areas to slash their pay. Employees want to move to low cost areas to lower their office expense.
Long term, WFH is going to usher in a surge of automation and/or offshoring that people really aren't thinking about yet.
I also think this is bad for younger folks careers as much of early career learning is through osmosis. You really need a great manager to be able to develop a young employee 100% virtually. How many of you have always had great managers?
If you were already situated in a WFH situation, I think the changes of the past year are a positive development. If you were forced into WFH and then made drastic changes because of it, I believe you have been given a raw deal.
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Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
My sense is the market is less of a bubble and more of a level shift. The rapid appreciation of prices has strong fundamentals but it obviously cannot continue. I think the appreciation gains are mostly locked in and should (hopefully) level out at a more traditional growth rate.
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Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
With NO W2 income at all on your application? For a 30 year fixed loan? I checked this 9 months ago, and what I found is what I found.vieques wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 2:00 amThis isn’t really true. I am seeing jumbo loans with asset depletion with rates identical to regular loans in my area. 30 year fixed. Unless you are talking about regular non-mortgage loans and, at least margin loans based on collateral are quite low at the moment but the rates are variable there.fortunefavored wrote: ↑Mon May 10, 2021 4:07 pm You can get an idea of this if you try to get an alternative loan - asset depletion, collateral backed, etc. The "real" interest rate on these types of loans is probably 4 to 5 percent higher if you don't have that government backstop.
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
To the extent that is going to happen, it would happen regardless of current/future WFH arrangements. We've been hearing that fear song since the late 90s, and salaries -- for the knowledge workers -- have only risen since then.
The workers that will be allowed to continue to work from home are, by definition, those that are in high-demand and who can call their own shots. If offshoring worked, tech positions wouldn't be paying the outrageous salaries you see discussed on this forum.
Face time shmoozing with your boss or chatting around the watercooler isn't going to save your job from being automated or outsourced. The beancounters aren't going to be persuaded to let you keep your job because you threw on a collared shirt and drove to the office.
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Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
I think it's the acceleration that people are underestimating. Certainly the package I took this year was directly related to the CFO realizing they could accelerate outsourcing to China with no downside. Pre-covid, the official company line was "Outsource where it makes sense" - this changed to a mandate of "90% must go to China in 24 months" once they realized how well remote work was going. These are white collar, $200K+/year jobs in technology.brianH wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 8:50 amTo the extent that is going to happen, it would happen regardless of current/future WFH arrangements. We've been hearing that fear song since the late 90s, and salaries -- for the knowledge workers -- have only risen since then.
The workers that will be allowed to continue to work from home are, by definition, those that are in high-demand and who can call their own shots. If offshoring worked, tech positions wouldn't be paying the outrageous salaries you see discussed on this forum.
Face time shmoozing with your boss or chatting around the watercooler isn't going to save your job from being automated or outsourced. The beancounters aren't going to be persuaded to let you keep your job because you threw on a collared shirt and drove to the office.
CFOs all seem to be herd followers once a trend takes hold, they all stampede that direction.
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
The CEO of Redfin just posted a series of tweets that directly relate to this conversation:
https://twitter.com/glennkelman/status/ ... 2978533380
The entire thread is worth reading. But I'll quote the first tweet here, as it seems to directly relate to the question of this thread:
1 of 15: It has been hard to convey, through anecdotes or data, how bizarre the U.S. housing market has become. For example, a Bethesda, Maryland homebuyer working with @Redfin included in her written offer a pledge to name her first-born child after the seller. She lost.
There is some psychological poignancy to that anecdote. It hits to the psychological state of being wrapped up in a mania.
The second tweet, though, seems to talk about the economic aspect of a bubble:
2 of 15: There are now more Realtors than listings.
I never thought about the relationship between the number of Realtors and listings. But my takeaway is that there is a flurry of people trying to break into the real estate market now. And that this is new and unprecedented.
The entire thread is worth reading for anyone who wants to an insider/expert perspective on whether we're now in a housing bubble.
https://twitter.com/glennkelman/status/ ... 2978533380
The entire thread is worth reading. But I'll quote the first tweet here, as it seems to directly relate to the question of this thread:
1 of 15: It has been hard to convey, through anecdotes or data, how bizarre the U.S. housing market has become. For example, a Bethesda, Maryland homebuyer working with @Redfin included in her written offer a pledge to name her first-born child after the seller. She lost.
There is some psychological poignancy to that anecdote. It hits to the psychological state of being wrapped up in a mania.
The second tweet, though, seems to talk about the economic aspect of a bubble:
2 of 15: There are now more Realtors than listings.
I never thought about the relationship between the number of Realtors and listings. But my takeaway is that there is a flurry of people trying to break into the real estate market now. And that this is new and unprecedented.
The entire thread is worth reading for anyone who wants to an insider/expert perspective on whether we're now in a housing bubble.
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Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
If you follow housing Twitter I'd definitely recommend Mike Simonsen and his firm Altos Research. Pretty good info on what's going on out there. See for instance how to spot a housing bubblegermark wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 10:03 am The CEO of Redfin just posted a series of tweets that directly relate to this conversation:
https://twitter.com/glennkelman/status/ ... 2978533380
The entire thread is worth reading. But I'll quote the first tweet here, as it seems to directly relate to the question of this thread:
1 of 15: It has been hard to convey, through anecdotes or data, how bizarre the U.S. housing market has become. For example, a Bethesda, Maryland homebuyer working with @Redfin included in her written offer a pledge to name her first-born child after the seller. She lost.
There is some psychological poignancy to that anecdote. It hits to the psychological state of being wrapped up in a mania.
The second tweet, though, seems to talk about the economic aspect of a bubble:
2 of 15: There are now more Realtors than listings.
I never thought about the relationship between the number of Realtors and listings. But my takeaway is that there is a flurry of people trying to break into the real estate market now. And that this is new and unprecedented.
The entire thread is worth reading for anyone who wants to an insider/expert perspective on whether we're now in a housing bubble.
Last edited by SmallSaver on Wed May 26, 2021 10:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
- willthrill81
- Posts: 32250
- Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:17 pm
- Location: USA
- Contact:
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
Again, there are very good, 'non-bubbly' reasons why the real estate market is so hot right now: a housing shortage that started years before COVID, construction costs being substantially higher now, construction lead times being substantially longer, and record low interest rates.germark wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 10:03 am The CEO of Redfin just posted a series of tweets that directly relate to this conversation:
https://twitter.com/glennkelman/status/ ... 2978533380
The entire thread is worth reading. But I'll quote the first tweet here, as it seems to directly relate to the question of this thread:
1 of 15: It has been hard to convey, through anecdotes or data, how bizarre the U.S. housing market has become. For example, a Bethesda, Maryland homebuyer working with @Redfin included in her written offer a pledge to name her first-born child after the seller. She lost.
There is some psychological poignancy to that anecdote. It hits to the psychological state of being wrapped up in a mania.
The second tweet, though, seems to talk about the economic aspect of a bubble:
2 of 15: There are now more Realtors than listings.
I never thought about the relationship between the number of Realtors and listings. But my takeaway is that there is a flurry of people trying to break into the real estate market now. And that this is new and unprecedented.
The entire thread is worth reading for anyone who wants to an insider/expert perspective on whether we're now in a housing bubble.
The points raised by the CEO above are effects of a strong sellers' market and have nothing to do with whether the market is in a bubble or not.
The Sensible Steward
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
FIREchief wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 2:39 amNo.rascott wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 1:20 amFIREchief wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 1:17 amSo, this time isn't being driven by "easy money?"rascott wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:57 pm I've watched real estate data closely for the last twenty + years. 2006/8 was driven by extremely easy money coming from wall st. There was never a shortage of housing.... and in actuality inventories were building for years before the bubble popped and the music stopped.
Have you ever been involved with mortgage underwriting?
None. What's yours?What's your background in the housing industry?
Really? LOL. They have money? From where?I don't see it..... the huge population of millenial generation is in prime home buying time of their lives, and they have money. They are highly qualified on an affordability level, by every measure.
I've been in a RE investor since the mid 90s. I've owned approximately 60 properties since then. I was in the mortgage banking business in the early 2000s, and have had a real estate license active for 15 years (only for personal use, or to help family/ friends/ other investors.).
Yes tons of millenials have good incomes. It's a huge generation and a lot of them are dual incomes households...40% have college degrees.
Median income of a college degreed millenial is $60k....x2. Median home price is $340k. Not really out of whack.
You might call it a two income trap that's pushing up home prices and demand.....Elizabeth Warren wrote a book about that subject twenty years ago..... and the trend is only increasing.
But this is in no way related to a glut of housing like we saw in 2007. There are very different market dynamics playing out.
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
That's a really good thread.germark wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 10:03 am The CEO of Redfin just posted a series of tweets that directly relate to this conversation:
https://twitter.com/glennkelman/status/ ... 2978533380
The entire thread is worth reading. But I'll quote the first tweet here, as it seems to directly relate to the question of this thread:
1 of 15: It has been hard to convey, through anecdotes or data, how bizarre the U.S. housing market has become. For example, a Bethesda, Maryland homebuyer working with @Redfin included in her written offer a pledge to name her first-born child after the seller. She lost.
There is some psychological poignancy to that anecdote. It hits to the psychological state of being wrapped up in a mania.
The second tweet, though, seems to talk about the economic aspect of a bubble:
2 of 15: There are now more Realtors than listings.
I never thought about the relationship between the number of Realtors and listings. But my takeaway is that there is a flurry of people trying to break into the real estate market now. And that this is new and unprecedented.
The entire thread is worth reading for anyone who wants to an insider/expert perspective on whether we're now in a housing bubble.
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
Thanks for saying that! I'm glad you liked it. It was a real eye-opener for me. I honestly did not realize that the market was that crazy nationwide right now.jay22 wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 12:02 pmThat's a really good thread.germark wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 10:03 am The CEO of Redfin just posted a series of tweets that directly relate to this conversation:
https://twitter.com/glennkelman/status/ ... 2978533380
The entire thread is worth reading. But I'll quote the first tweet here, as it seems to directly relate to the question of this thread:
1 of 15: It has been hard to convey, through anecdotes or data, how bizarre the U.S. housing market has become. For example, a Bethesda, Maryland homebuyer working with @Redfin included in her written offer a pledge to name her first-born child after the seller. She lost.
There is some psychological poignancy to that anecdote. It hits to the psychological state of being wrapped up in a mania.
The second tweet, though, seems to talk about the economic aspect of a bubble:
2 of 15: There are now more Realtors than listings.
I never thought about the relationship between the number of Realtors and listings. But my takeaway is that there is a flurry of people trying to break into the real estate market now. And that this is new and unprecedented.
The entire thread is worth reading for anyone who wants to an insider/expert perspective on whether we're now in a housing bubble.
I've read a few of the posts in this thread, on and off, for a while now. IMHO I think many people here are getting too caught up in the semantics / definition of "bubble", and too fixated on comparisons to 2008.
That thread opened my eyes to really weird things going on in the housing market. If "bubble" is a loaded word, then I'm happy to use his word ("bizarre") instead
To put my own perspective out there. I've lived in a modest rent-controlled apartment in a VHCOL for many years now. I have enough in a taxable account so that I could pay cash to buy a similar-sized condo. Previous threads here convinced me that I'm probably better off staying a renter, so that's what I've done. I'll never get to know if I made the "right" decision. But that twitter thread sure made me feel happy as a renter right now
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
Precovid, the beancounters doubted WFH. Now they know jobs can be moved anywhere very easily.brianH wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 8:50 amTo the extent that is going to happen, it would happen regardless of current/future WFH arrangements. We've been hearing that fear song since the late 90s, and salaries -- for the knowledge workers -- have only risen since then.
The workers that will be allowed to continue to work from home are, by definition, those that are in high-demand and who can call their own shots. If offshoring worked, tech positions wouldn't be paying the outrageous salaries you see discussed on this forum.
Face time shmoozing with your boss or chatting around the watercooler isn't going to save your job from being automated or outsourced. The beancounters aren't going to be persuaded to let you keep your job because you threw on a collared shirt and drove to the office.
Before offshoring will come the race to the bottom inside the United States. WFH jobs will flow to the cheapest place. $200+K/year CA job -> $85K rural Alabama. When all work from jobs do the same, you are free the "call their own shots" all the way to rural Alabama or wherever rural state their job shifted to.
Commuting protects your job in some sense. The most your job moves is from cubical G23 to J53. WFH can be moved anywhere on a random Tuesday with just an email.
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
Trust and don't verify.https://www.housingwire.com/articles/fh ... ion-point/
In 2020, the use of “blind” appraisal waivers reached staggering, record highs. In these scenarios, no inspection or appraisal of any kind is performed on the property. While waivers make sense for certain loans — and certainly provided some temporary capacity relief to appraisers who were struggling to keep up with order volume — the rate at which they’ve been issued over the last year represents a new high-water mark.
During peak months, 70–80% of all rate-and-term refinancing transactions have been executed without an appraisal. The lack of boots on the ground means that both the lender and the GSEs buying the loans have reduced visibility into the true condition of the property.
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Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
Appraisals are functionally worthless. This is just a way to reduce friction in the transaction.ballons wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 12:56 pmTrust and don't verify.https://www.housingwire.com/articles/fh ... ion-point/
In 2020, the use of “blind” appraisal waivers reached staggering, record highs. In these scenarios, no inspection or appraisal of any kind is performed on the property. While waivers make sense for certain loans — and certainly provided some temporary capacity relief to appraisers who were struggling to keep up with order volume — the rate at which they’ve been issued over the last year represents a new high-water mark.
During peak months, 70–80% of all rate-and-term refinancing transactions have been executed without an appraisal. The lack of boots on the ground means that both the lender and the GSEs buying the loans have reduced visibility into the true condition of the property.
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
You want to WFH but would only manage employees that commute to work? Did I read that correctly?stoptothink wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 10:57 am
Certainly not the best situation for everybody, but it's been amazing for my wife and I. We have a small (<1500 sq. ft) home, don't have a dedicated work space (let alone two), and have two younger (9 and 6) kids. If anything, we have been more productive, which is a significant reason why we both continue to have the autonomy when almost all of our colleagues are now in the office full-time.
I actually began the pandemic directing a large team, I for sure saw that WFH is not a good fit for a lot of people. In fact, in November I accepted an internal transfer and made it clear to my employer that I refuse to manage/direct WFH employees ever again.
Taking care of tomorrow while enjoying today.
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Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
No. I refuse to ever manage employees again unless everybody is in office. I was both a director of a program and a SME for my employer, I continued to be very productive during WFH and met all my deadlines; many of my employees were not, and there was little I could do about it (according to HR) because of the circumstances. I had employees ghost me for weeks at a time, literally not respond to any emails or show up to TEAMs meetings, produce nothing, and my hands were tied. Most of these employees pre-dated me and I did not hire them. What I learned was that rock star employees will be rock stars in any situation, those borderline employees will likely take advantage of any situation to be even less productive. I basically told my employer I would not accept being responsible for the production of others again, unless circumstance were totally different, and I transitioned into a new role. FWIW, I have no issues going back into office, but I have proven that I am productive wherever I work from so my boss (CMO and one of the company's founders) has provided me full autonomy.srt7 wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 4:35 pmYou want to WFH but would only manage employees that commute to work? Did I read that correctly?stoptothink wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 10:57 am
Certainly not the best situation for everybody, but it's been amazing for my wife and I. We have a small (<1500 sq. ft) home, don't have a dedicated work space (let alone two), and have two younger (9 and 6) kids. If anything, we have been more productive, which is a significant reason why we both continue to have the autonomy when almost all of our colleagues are now in the office full-time.
I actually began the pandemic directing a large team, I for sure saw that WFH is not a good fit for a lot of people. In fact, in November I accepted an internal transfer and made it clear to my employer that I refuse to manage/direct WFH employees ever again.
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Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
Does anyone who understands housing market metrics know if the price/rent ratio justifies the boom in property prices?
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Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
No. People have money. Hedge funds are flush. Salaries are going up.SuperTrooper87 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 12, 2021 4:21 am Currently, in rural New England, homes are and have been selling far above their appraised value. Homes that are “worth” 200k are getting same day as listing offers of 240-270k cash, no inspection, sight unseen.
I know other areas are seeing similar situations as there is a mass exodus out of the urban areas (NY, CA, etc).
In the midst of this influx of urban money to the rural area, locals are trying to compete with homeownership. I lately heard a story from a coworker who has been trying to desperately buy a home before their rental lease ends. (Not being renewed as they plan to sell). Several times they offered on homes, 15%+ over asking, just to lose. He mentioned just offering more next time and using his ability as a first time homebuyer to put 3% down. This is when alarms went off in my head.
This seems eerily reminiscent of 2008. People taking loans to the max, no equity in homes, no EF, etc. What’s this kids chance of refinancing in 5 years because he has to buy a new roof or furnace because he overpaid on the house and has no cash? Well now home prices potentially sunk and his 250k home is really only worth 160k. He and others are screwed.
Are we in another bubble? Is this a national trend due to covid or is this in isolated pockets?
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021 ... -rent.htmlJess Saying wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 5:11 pm Does anyone who understands housing market metrics know if the price/rent ratio justifies the boom in property prices?
price to rent
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QZBiqQ8FroY/ ... ar2021.PNG
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
I can't speak for low-level (low-skill) office jobs, but I'm not seeing any signs of this in technology. Employers are starved for talent, and they're more than happy to scoop up resources, wherever they live, at rapidly increasing salaries. If anything, more liberal WFH policies with big tech employers may bump up salaries for any talent that was formally underpaid in remote areas of the US.ballons wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 12:30 pm Before offshoring will come the race to the bottom inside the United States. WFH jobs will flow to the cheapest place. $200+K/year CA job -> $85K rural Alabama. When all work from jobs do the same, you are free the "call their own shots" all the way to rural Alabama or wherever rural state their job shifted to.
Employees with in-demand skills have options, same as they always did.
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
I’m sure I’m not the only in one this situation, but before the pandemic, I worked remotely for my long-time employer and stayed in part because of reluctance by other employers in my industry to bring in a new, senior person on a remote basis. The pandemic made everyone comfortable with the remote arrangement, though, and I had multiple offers this spring at significantly greater comp. For some workers, the pandemic effectively increased the pool of employers who would compete on the workers’ terms.brianH wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 6:19 pmI can't speak for low-level (low-skill) office jobs, but I'm not seeing any signs of this in technology. Employers are starved for talent, and they're more than happy to scoop up resources, wherever they live, at rapidly increasing salaries. If anything, more liberal WFH policies with big tech employers may bump up salaries for any talent that was formally underpaid in remote areas of the US.ballons wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 12:30 pm Before offshoring will come the race to the bottom inside the United States. WFH jobs will flow to the cheapest place. $200+K/year CA job -> $85K rural Alabama. When all work from jobs do the same, you are free the "call their own shots" all the way to rural Alabama or wherever rural state their job shifted to.
Employees with in-demand skills have options, same as they always did.
Re: Are we in a housing bubble?
Makes sense. Thank you for clarifying. I manage people as well and have come to the same conclusion (in bold) as well.stoptothink wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 4:47 pmNo. I refuse to ever manage employees again unless everybody is in office. I was both a director of a program and a SME for my employer, I continued to be very productive during WFH and met all my deadlines; many of my employees were not, and there was little I could do about it (according to HR) because of the circumstances. I had employees ghost me for weeks at a time, literally not respond to any emails or show up to TEAMs meetings, produce nothing, and my hands were tied. Most of these employees pre-dated me and I did not hire them. What I learned was that rock star employees will be rock stars in any situation, those borderline employees will likely take advantage of any situation to be even less productive. I basically told my employer I would not accept being responsible for the production of others again, unless circumstance were totally different, and I transitioned into a new role. FWIW, I have no issues going back into office, but I have proven that I am productive wherever I work from so my boss (CMO and one of the company's founders) has provided me full autonomy.srt7 wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 4:35 pmYou want to WFH but would only manage employees that commute to work? Did I read that correctly?stoptothink wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 10:57 am
Certainly not the best situation for everybody, but it's been amazing for my wife and I. We have a small (<1500 sq. ft) home, don't have a dedicated work space (let alone two), and have two younger (9 and 6) kids. If anything, we have been more productive, which is a significant reason why we both continue to have the autonomy when almost all of our colleagues are now in the office full-time.
I actually began the pandemic directing a large team, I for sure saw that WFH is not a good fit for a lot of people. In fact, in November I accepted an internal transfer and made it clear to my employer that I refuse to manage/direct WFH employees ever again.
Taking care of tomorrow while enjoying today.