Just because the first shall be the last doesn't mean the last shall be the first.firebirdparts wrote: ↑Sat Jan 15, 2022 2:54 pm I don't know. I'm kinda thinking when everybody thinks she's dead is when it'll start climbing again. you know how they say in Vegas, luck is bound to change.
It's true that in one of the charts I posted showed that pension funds hire managers who HAD outperformed prior to their hire go on to underperform after being hired and then get fired only to outperform again.
But it's also true that in the first chart I posted above the study from William Sharpe showed that gurus' (like Cathie Wood) predictions had to be 74% or more accurate to beat the market, yet not a single one of those gurus from 2000 to 2012 had an accuracy of predictions sufficient to beat the market.
To use a gambling metaphor about Vegas and "luck" only makes the point that this is not investing, but speculating and gambling.