TSLA: What Changed?

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Top99%
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Top99% »

I own and love a Tesla model 3 but only own TSLA shares in my index funds. I am very optimistic about the future of Tesla as a company and believe it will be very profitable in the long term. But, having lived through the Tech Bubble I see a lot of parallels between the long term trajectory of TSLA and Cisco Systems (CSCO). During the Tech Bubble Cisco quickly rose to nose bleed prices due to the hype about how the Internet would change the world and Cisco would be a main beneficiary. Both of those turned out to be true and Cisco is very profitable with over 4x the revenue and profits they made in the late 1990s. But, the market cap and share price if CSCO are still at least 40% below their peak over 20 years ago. So, when I see TSLA valued at over $1.2m per car sold (Vs $23K for Toyota) I just have a really hard time seeing it "grow into its share price". Yeah I know they have a storage and solar business but I don't see how those markets don't become commoditized. Do I really care what brand my solar panels and power wall are?
But, I am certainly not going to put money on my hunch by shorting the stock. I could be wrong either for a while or forever.
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hagridshut
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by hagridshut »

learntoinvest123 wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:41 pmThe market for EVs as it stands is very tiny, and none of these companies feel there is a fundamental shift of consumers to EVs yet.
The Mainstream Media has spread the false notion that there is an "EV" market that is distinct from automobiles generally.

Electric cars can now serve as direct replacements to gasoline cars, because DC Fast Charging technology allows drivers of electrics to travel long distances with minimal inconvenience. The Supercharger network (Tesla worldwide) and Ionity network (EU) are examples of DC Fast Charging infrastructure.

https://www.tesla.com/supercharger

Electric cars can usually be charged at home overnight, like a mobile phone. On the road, they can be recharged in 30 minutes during meal breaks.


I have nothing against Tesla. What I am saying is the valuation of Tesla is bigger than next 10 automobile companies combined. Yet you do not see Honda or Toyota panicking and putting out one EV after another.

Can Tesla put Honda or Toyota out of existence? it is possible, but you don't see the market betting on it yet. Take a look at Honda and Toyota stock (those are not bankruptcy valuations).

Once market shifts to EVs, Tesla will have tons of competition.
Honda and Toyota cannot deliver any credible volume of electric vehicles. They lack battery supply. Both companies also made substantial investments in hydrogen fuel cell technology (Toyota just started selling its latest generation Mirai FCEV sedan).

Even if they were in a panic, there is nothing they can do in the short term.

Their existing manufacturing infrastructure is also overwhelmingly geared towards building Internal Combustion Engines and transmissions for those engines. Stranded assets.


There are 10 other established automakers, 2 Japanese that have a faithful following.
In 2019, the top 5 most traded-in cars for Tesla:

1. Toyota Prius
2. BMW 3 Series
3. Honda Accord
4. Honda Civic
5. Nissan Leaf

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019 ... ore%20rows

Customer loyalty won't save Honda and Toyota.

They have nothing today that compares to a Tesla Model 3, and probably won't for years.

Drive an Acura RDX (Honda's luxury crossover) and then compare it to a Tesla Model Y. It is completely obvious that Honda is drastically behind in electronics and computers. The RDX is basically an antique, and the current generation RDX is early in its production cycle.
Last edited by hagridshut on Wed Feb 03, 2021 8:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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MBB_Boy
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by MBB_Boy »

Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:38 am
BayStater wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 9:46 pm TSLA is already a sweeping conglomerate from cars, to energy, to software/IT:
  • automaker: I think they're barely Top 20 by revenue. Not even Top 20 by # units produced. Currently, they'd be close to Subaru in revenue.
  • car retailer: If they sell 500k that's more than AutoNation, the largest new-car retailer. 3x Carvana.
  • battery manufacturer: Close to size of BYD. But Tesla supplies itself. I guess one day it could use excess capacity as a revenue stream.
  • solar manufacturer, retailer & installer: no idea on the current scale of this. But the future value is creating a "moat" or "Apple-like ecosystem" for energy with your car+home.
  • service station operator: 1,826 supercharger stations about tied with Circle K for the second largest network of any "fuel" retailer.
  • autonomous driving software company: I'm not sure on any publicly-traded company that's specifically and only in this space. But Tesla is the leader for level-2 driving that the public has access to right now.
Tesla may still be overpriced than the combined capitalization of their peers in these verticals. But I can see why it's tough to just value them against most other automakers.

I think it's really autonomous driving that captures most of the future value people price in. Every other competitor is trying to skip to level-3, 4, 5 with LIDAR and mapping.... but it's unclear if that approach is really scalable. If it is, how long it will take to develop before consumers will see those systems.

If the higher-level autonomous driving can be solved with the hardware Tesla already equips... and it's "simply" a data game (as they hope): Tesla will win.

Tesla may “win” on autonomous driving, but since when does that preclude other auto companies from developing their own data-intensive software solution?

I don’t think a first mover advantage means much here given the regulation and how much competition there is. I don’t see a particularly large moat
Probably what Apple said before making Apple maps lol
Coltrane75
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Coltrane75 »

Kookaburra wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:39 pm I realize there are widely varying opinions as to whether Tesla stock is properly valued. Setting that aside, if we assume the market is efficient and prices in all known info about the future, what is the prevailing explanation for its all-of-sudden meteoric rise that started one year ago and continues? In other words, what suddenly changed or became known starting about a year ago that catalyzed this (if anything)?
I just have such a hard time accepting the underlying syllogism that the market is efficient and therefore TSLA is fairly priced. Especially given the recent events around GameStop etc.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by BayStater »

Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:38 am
BayStater wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 9:46 pm I think it's really autonomous driving that captures most of the future value people price in. Every other competitor is trying to skip to level-3, 4, 5 with LIDAR and mapping.... but it's unclear if that approach is really scalable. If it is, how long it will take to develop before consumers will see those systems.

If the higher-level autonomous driving can be solved with the hardware Tesla already equips... and it's "simply" a data game (as they hope): Tesla will win.
Tesla may “win” on autonomous driving, but since when does that preclude other auto companies from developing their own data-intensive software solution?

I don’t think a first mover advantage means much here given the regulation and how much competition there is. I don’t see a particularly large moat
I guess I'm of the opinion that level-3 will already need to be viable at a large-scale before we see any real movement on regulation at a large-scale.

So that's where I see the value in being first. If the "data approach" is the winner, Tesla has a huge head start.

There's a company "Comma.ai" that is building self-driving models on hardware already equipped on Hondas, Toyotas, GM, etc.. It's a hobbyist thing so it's going to be small scale. But they're currently #2 to Tesla on this approach with 35 million miles of data.

For context the LIDAR mapping approach - Waymo has 20 million miles, Cruise 2 million, Pony.ai <1 million.

Tesla has over 3 billion miles of data.

Sure other automakers could fall in line with the Tesla approach. But until they do, where are they going to get the data? They could also face different challenges on data collection from Tesla. Ie. people don't seem to mind if Google uses your data, but it's a front-page story for the NSA. Will Honda owners agree to the terms and conditions on data collection as Tesla owners have?
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nathan Drake »

BayStater wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:36 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:38 am
BayStater wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 9:46 pm I think it's really autonomous driving that captures most of the future value people price in. Every other competitor is trying to skip to level-3, 4, 5 with LIDAR and mapping.... but it's unclear if that approach is really scalable. If it is, how long it will take to develop before consumers will see those systems.

If the higher-level autonomous driving can be solved with the hardware Tesla already equips... and it's "simply" a data game (as they hope): Tesla will win.
Tesla may “win” on autonomous driving, but since when does that preclude other auto companies from developing their own data-intensive software solution?

I don’t think a first mover advantage means much here given the regulation and how much competition there is. I don’t see a particularly large moat
I guess I'm of the opinion that level-3 will already need to be viable at a large-scale before we see any real movement on regulation at a large-scale.

So that's where I see the value in being first. If the "data approach" is the winner, Tesla has a huge head start.

There's a company "Comma.ai" that is building self-driving models on hardware already equipped on Hondas, Toyotas, GM, etc.. It's a hobbyist thing so it's going to be small scale. But they're currently #2 to Tesla on this approach with 35 million miles of data.

For context the LIDAR mapping approach - Waymo has 20 million miles, Cruise 2 million, Pony.ai <1 million.

Tesla has over 3 billion miles of data.

Sure other automakers could fall in line with the Tesla approach. But until they do, where are they going to get the data? They could also face different challenges on data collection from Tesla. Ie. people don't seem to mind if Google uses your data, but it's a front-page story for the NSA. Will Honda owners agree to the terms and conditions on data collection as Tesla owners have?
They will get the data the same way Tesla does. Why will a few years of having an advantage matter much long term when it may not be legal to use at first and when Tesla still can only sell in the low millions of cars per year?
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MinnGuyInvesting
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by MinnGuyInvesting »

BayStater wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:36 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:38 am
BayStater wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 9:46 pm I think it's really autonomous driving that captures most of the future value people price in. Every other competitor is trying to skip to level-3, 4, 5 with LIDAR and mapping.... but it's unclear if that approach is really scalable. If it is, how long it will take to develop before consumers will see those systems.

If the higher-level autonomous driving can be solved with the hardware Tesla already equips... and it's "simply" a data game (as they hope): Tesla will win.
Tesla may “win” on autonomous driving, but since when does that preclude other auto companies from developing their own data-intensive software solution?

I don’t think a first mover advantage means much here given the regulation and how much competition there is. I don’t see a particularly large moat
I guess I'm of the opinion that level-3 will already need to be viable at a large-scale before we see any real movement on regulation at a large-scale.

So that's where I see the value in being first. If the "data approach" is the winner, Tesla has a huge head start.

There's a company "Comma.ai" that is building self-driving models on hardware already equipped on Hondas, Toyotas, GM, etc.. It's a hobbyist thing so it's going to be small scale. But they're currently #2 to Tesla on this approach with 35 million miles of data.

For context the LIDAR mapping approach - Waymo has 20 million miles, Cruise 2 million, Pony.ai <1 million.

Tesla has over 3 billion miles of data.




Sure other automakers could fall in line with the Tesla approach. But until they do, where are they going to get the data? They could also face different challenges on data collection from Tesla. Ie. people don't seem to mind if Google uses your data, but it's a front-page story for the NSA. Will Honda owners agree to the terms and conditions on data collection as Tesla owners have?
A recent quote from Elon Musk was buying a non-autonomous car will soon be similar to owning a horse.
The fact Tesla has such a large advantage in miles of data... I don't see how Tesla doesn't win that.
They are far better vertically integrated than any other car manufacturer out there for EV.
It will be very difficult for other companies with legacy engineers to pivot as fast as Tesla.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by MinnGuyInvesting »

Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:48 am

They will get the data the same way Tesla does. Why will a few years of having an advantage matter much long term when it may not be legal to use at first and when Tesla still can only sell in the low millions of cars per year?
How many software engineers do you believe GM has working on this?
How many does Tesla have working on this?

Who will have a better vision of what people want 5 years from now?
Elon Musk or Mary Barra?
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by TomatoTomahto »

I don’t buy individual stocks. If I did, TSLA would be the one, albeit 7or 8 years ago, when I put a deposit on my (Musk says soon...soon...aha!) Model X. I don’t calculate how much money I would have made :D

At the time, it wasn’t clear that Tesla would survive. I believed in the mission, and I paid more for my car than it was worth with eyes wide open. I think many of the earlier adopters had that mindset, and Tesla service is always extra friendly when they see my VIN (0002xx).

So, what’s changed is that I don’t know anyone who wonders if Tesla is going belly up. I’m proud to have been a very small part of making it possible.
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
Nathan Drake
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nathan Drake »

MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:52 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:48 am

They will get the data the same way Tesla does. Why will a few years of having an advantage matter much long term when it may not be legal to use at first and when Tesla still can only sell in the low millions of cars per year?
How many software engineers do you believe GM has working on this?
How many does Tesla have working on this?

Who will have a better vision of what people want 5 years from now?
Elon Musk or Mary Barra?
The software doesn’t need to come from GM, it can come from any of the big companies currently investing in it (google, apple).

My feeling is that a car is not an iPhone, there’s no ecosystem loyalty. I don’t see Tesla achieving upwards of 50% market share in the auto industry like Apple does with iPhone.

If Honda, Toyota, VW can produce an EV with range, autonomous driving, and are price competitive with more options there’s no reason why I would inherently go with Tesla instead of these other options. It’s mainly going to come down to cost. Tesla has some advantages but also some disadvantages w/r/t cost.
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joebruin77
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by joebruin77 »

One of my first lessons in buying stocks was when my dad told me to pay attention to products that I like and that are the best compared to other products on the market. As a result of this, at 10 years old, I bought a couple shares of Coca Cola stock.

The exact same lesson applies to Tesla. Back in 2018, I was a bit interested in Tesla. Then I took a Model 3 Performance for a test drive. Never in my life did I end a test drive with more of an overwhelming sense of "I must have this car!" I would imagine that my experience is shared by many people. The point is that their product is truly superb compared to not only other EV's but other ICE cars as well. I bought a 2018 Model 3 Performance and have enjoyed it with no major problems for the past 2+ years.

Yes, other manufacturers are putting more and more EV's on the market (which I welcome). But they either lag in battery range (for example, the Audi Etron only has a range of 222 miles) or they lag in a charging network. Consider not only Tesla's jump on the competition in terms of the cars and batteries, but also their huge jump with their Supercharger network. As of today, there are over 12,000 superchargers in the United States. The latest V3 Tesla Superchargers can charge a Model 3 Long Range with 75 miles of range in just 5 minutes and are capable of adding up to 1,000 miles of range per hour. Plus Superchargers are often in locations with lots of nice amenities. You can start charging, lock your car, and then go get a coffee, a bite to eat, or even do some shopping. I find that road trips are so much better with a Tesla. Not only is it pleasant to stop and charge due to these amenities, but Autopilot makes driving on the highway or in bumper to bumper traffic so much less stressful and taxing. The car does almost all the driving for you.

There is a recent video posted on youtube by The Fast Lane car reviewers. They were comparing the Tesla Model Y and the new Ford Mach-E charging experiences. They drove both cars to a charging area that had both a Supercharger for the Tesla and an Electrify America DC fast charger for the Ford. They each took 15 minutes to see what the charging experience was like. The Model Y pulled up to the Supercharger and started charging immediately and got a nice bump in range. The Ford had to drive to 3 different stalls at the Electify America station until the driver found one that actually worked with his car. And when he finally started charging, it was significantly slower than the Tesla Supercharger AND it was a lot more expensive.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by rich126 »

A touch off topic but there is an interesting technical interview with Musk and manufacturing expert Sandy Munro. The link is at the following site.
https://jalopnik.com/in-epically-nerdy- ... 1846181756

They discuss various issues with the Model 3.
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MinnGuyInvesting
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by MinnGuyInvesting »

rich126 wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:37 am A touch off topic but there is an interesting technical interview with Musk and manufacturing expert Sandy Munro. The link is at the following site.
https://jalopnik.com/in-epically-nerdy- ... 1846181756

They discuss various issues with the Model 3.
I watched this yesterday.
Good discussion between a couple engineers.
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Nathan Drake
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nathan Drake »

joebruin77 wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:34 am One of my first lessons in buying stocks was when my dad told me to pay attention to products that I like and that are the best compared to other products on the market. As a result of this, at 10 years old, I bought a couple shares of Coca Cola stock.

The exact same lesson applies to Tesla. Back in 2018, I was a bit interested in Tesla. Then I took a Model 3 Performance for a test drive. Never in my life did I end a test drive with more of an overwhelming sense of "I must have this car!" I would imagine that my experience is shared by many people. The point is that their product is truly superb compared to not only other EV's but other ICE cars as well. I bought a 2018 Model 3 Performance and have enjoyed it with no major problems for the past 2+ years.

Yes, other manufacturers are putting more and more EV's on the market (which I welcome). But they either lag in battery range (for example, the Audi Etron only has a range of 222 miles) or they lag in a charging network. Consider not only Tesla's jump on the competition in terms of the cars and batteries, but also their huge jump with their Supercharger network. As of today, there are over 12,000 superchargers in the United States. The latest V3 Tesla Superchargers can charge a Model 3 Long Range with 75 miles of range in just 5 minutes and are capable of adding up to 1,000 miles of range per hour. Plus Superchargers are often in locations with lots of nice amenities. You can start charging, lock your car, and then go get a coffee, a bite to eat, or even do some shopping. I find that road trips are so much better with a Tesla. Not only is it pleasant to stop and charge due to these amenities, but Autopilot makes driving on the highway or in bumper to bumper traffic so much less stressful and taxing. The car does almost all the driving for you.

There is a recent video posted on youtube by The Fast Lane car reviewers. They were comparing the Tesla Model Y and the new Ford Mach-E charging experiences. They drove both cars to a charging area that had both a Supercharger for the Tesla and an Electrify America DC fast charger for the Ford. They each took 15 minutes to see what the charging experience was like. The Model Y pulled up to the Supercharger and started charging immediately and got a nice bump in range. The Ford had to drive to 3 different stalls at the Electify America station until the driver found one that actually worked with his car. And when he finally started charging, it was significantly slower than the Tesla Supercharger AND it was a lot more expensive.
Nobody is really questioning that Tesla is the current leader in EVs and makes a good car.

The issue is whether it’s a good investment at nearly a trillion in market cap.

I still see the EV car market as capital intensive business with low margins, and the auxiliary businesses Tesla is involved in are murky at best and require a huge amount of faith. There’s simply not a huge amount of upside, and a huge amount of potential downside.
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Rex66
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Rex66 »

hagridshut wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 8:25 am
learntoinvest123 wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:41 pmThe market for EVs as it stands is very tiny, and none of these companies feel there is a fundamental shift of consumers to EVs yet.
The Mainstream Media has spread the false notion that there is an "EV" market that is distinct from automobiles generally.

Electric cars can now serve as direct replacements to gasoline cars, because DC Fast Charging technology allows drivers of electrics to travel long distances with minimal inconvenience. The Supercharger network (Tesla worldwide) and Ionity network (EU) are examples of DC Fast Charging infrastructure.

https://www.tesla.com/supercharger

Electric cars can usually be charged at home overnight, like a mobile phone. On the road, they can be recharged in 30 minutes during meal breaks.


I have nothing against Tesla. What I am saying is the valuation of Tesla is bigger than next 10 automobile companies combined. Yet you do not see Honda or Toyota panicking and putting out one EV after another.

Can Tesla put Honda or Toyota out of existence? it is possible, but you don't see the market betting on it yet. Take a look at Honda and Toyota stock (those are not bankruptcy valuations).

Once market shifts to EVs, Tesla will have tons of competition.
Honda and Toyota cannot deliver any credible volume of electric vehicles. They lack battery supply. Both companies also made substantial investments in hydrogen fuel cell technology (Toyota just started selling its latest generation Mirai FCEV sedan).

Even if they were in a panic, there is nothing they can do in the short term.

Their existing manufacturing infrastructure is also overwhelmingly geared towards building Internal Combustion Engines and transmissions for those engines. Stranded assets.


There are 10 other established automakers, 2 Japanese that have a faithful following.
In 2019, the top 5 most traded-in cars for Tesla:

1. Toyota Prius
2. BMW 3 Series
3. Honda Accord
4. Honda Civic
5. Nissan Leaf

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019 ... ore%20rows

Customer loyalty won't save Honda and Toyota.

They have nothing today that compares to a Tesla Model 3, and probably won't for years.

Drive an Acura RDX (Honda's luxury crossover) and then compare it to a Tesla Model Y. It is completely obvious that Honda is drastically behind in electronics and computers. The RDX is basically an antique, and the current generation RDX is early in its production cycle.
That’s interesting since I find the rdx pretty advanced and am looking at the 2022 mdx. Maybe I’ll look at the Tesla but it’s like 40k more.
Rat_Race
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Rat_Race »

Tesla stock valuation will moderate once anyone who wants an electric vehicle can go to any dealer of their choice and buy one at an affordable price. It's going to be a few more years. The solar roof and battery technologies are also subject to competition. They'll still command a premium due to their first-to-market position and branding, but their PE makes TSLA a bubble stock without a doubt. In this free money environment, nothing in the markets makes much sense...so this can continue as long as the global markets don't blow up.
hirlaw
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by hirlaw »

This is from a June 1999 article in Fortune magazine, describing a "Tesla" of that time, Yahoo. This time its different.
To be sure, Yahoo the company has been one of the great success stories in the short commercial history of the Internet. Founded five years ago by Jerry Yang and David Filo, two Stanford grad students who created a Web "directory" more or less for fun, Yahoo today is widely considered one of a handful of companies destined to dominate its portion of the Internet "space." Its management team, led by CEO Tim Koogle, has built Yahoo into a powerful "portal" and one of the best-known brands in cyberspace. Its strategic moves--such as the recent acquisitions of GeoCities and Broadcast.com--have been applauded as savvy. The company's ability to "aggregate eyeballs," as they say in e-business, is unquestioned: In March more than 31 million people visited the Yahoo site, putting it just a hair behind the No. 1 site, AOL.

Most impressive of all, Yahoo is the rare Net company that is profitable. It turned its first small profit in the fourth quarter of 1996--a year ahead of most people's expectations. In the first quarter of 1999, Yahoo earned $16 million on $80 million in revenues. If earnings keep growing at the current pace, the company will make more than $100 million this year.

If the performance of Yahoo the company has been spectacular, the performance of Yahoo the stock has been unearthly, even surreal. In 1997, a year when Yahoo the company grew by 242%, Yahoo the stock rose 517%. Last year the company tripled its revenues and saw profits go from a penny a share to 13 cents a share; the stock ran up 584%. (So far this year the stock is up another 33%, despite the big falloff in Internet stocks that started in mid-April.)

Under the old, pre-Internet rules, a company with Yahoo's revenues and projected growth rate might be able to justify a market cap of, oh, $3 billion. Instead, Yahoo's market cap stands at $34 billion. Its P/E ratio in mid-May was around 1,062. This is uncharted territory not just for Lise Buyer but for everyone: for the day traders who have helped run up the stock so far and so fast; for the short-sellers who've gotten killed again and again on Yahoo; for the retail investors deciding whether to take the plunge; even for the pros at Fidelity Investments, who by the end of last year held close to 1.8 million Yahoo shares. Half of those were owned by Fidelity Magellan, the nation's largest mutual fund, which brings us to the most astonishing fact of all: Despite its unfathomable market cap, Yahoo is now viewed as a stock "safe" enough to be held by mutual funds that manage retirement money for tens of millions of Americans. Analysts routinely categorize it, along with AOL, Amazon.com, and eBay, as an Internet "blue chip." Fund managers buy Yahoo for "defensive" purposes.

There are plenty of people who still think that Netmania will turn out to be a bubble--and they may well be right. But for now, the more illuminating question is the more prosaic one. How did we get here? How did it come to pass that a company with $16 million in quarterly earnings could have a $34 billion market cap--and that no one dares suggest that its stock is overpriced? That story, the story of Yahoo the stock, is the story of the relationship between investors and Internet stocks. It's about how we all learned to abandon our valuation bias.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by andypanda »

"A recent quote from Elon Musk was buying a non-autonomous car will soon be similar to owning a horse."

I suppose that depends on when soon arrives. There are 7 or 8 million horses in the US, compared to less than a million Teslas iirc.

I'm sure Tesla will do well, but they aren't there yet.
Fwiw, there were more than 26 million horses in the US in 1915.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by benderbr »

andypanda wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:41 pm "A recent quote from Elon Musk was buying a non-autonomous car will soon be similar to owning a horse."

I suppose that depends on when soon arrives. There are 7 or 8 million horses in the US, compared to less than a million Teslas iirc.

I'm sure Tesla will do well, but they aren't there yet.
Fwiw, there were more than 26 million horses in the US in 1915.
This is beyond nonsense. How many of those 8 million horses do you see on the interstate?
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by harikaried »

Callisto wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 4:25 pm Judging by how it was shorted to hell for so long, I wonder if their success in cars has just changed people's minds. But rather than people joining team Tesla, I feel like there's a lot less anti-Tesla.
Maybe there's fewer people and definitely fewer shares shorted, but the dollar amount is still all time high:

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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by MinnGuyInvesting »

For the people who think Tesla is in a bubble, they believe Tesla is one or two things.

For people who think Tesla is probably going to be a smart long-term hold, they believe Tesla is solving more problems than a self driving electric car and a few solar panels.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nathan Drake »

MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:59 pm For the people who think Tesla is in a bubble, they believe Tesla is one or two things.

For people who think Tesla is probably going to be a smart long-term hold, they believe Tesla is solving more problems than a self driving electric car and a few solar panels.

I believe Tesla is solving some things in solar, battery, and self driving.

I also believe they are a great company.

I am unsure about them being a smart long term hold at nearly 1T in market cap.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by crystalbank »

These TSLA threads are always a chuckle :D

Only time will tell if TSLA will become "THE" company of 21st century changing every paradigm in multiple sectors like Transport, Energy, Insurance etc or will just end as yet another Enron. May be something in between perhaps? Nope, definitely go big or go home!
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by harikaried »

fallingeggs wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 7:38 pmOne avenue slightly mentioned above is that the self-driving capabilities will allow Telsa to (finally) start a fleet of taxis and crush Uber/Lyft.
There's some interesting dynamics for early deployments of robotaxis as the competition is vs human drivers then later vs other robotaxis. This means the early robotaxi could charge closer to $2/mile and capture more profit.

Tesla is currently producing 500k vehicles per year with a one time revenue of $50k/vehicle. If instead those were all robotaxis driving 100k miles per year, that would suggest ongoing revenue of up to $200k/vehicle/year for the next 10 years. Some people say TSLA price already includes this future revenue possibility, but who knows if it's discounted enough or too much. :?
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by harikaried »

Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:38 amTesla may “win” on autonomous driving, but since when does that preclude other auto companies from developing their own data-intensive software solution?
From the recent experience of the speed of legacy auto companies switching to electric vehicles, there's a possibility that the switch to produce autonomous vehicles could be similarly slow/delayed. It turns out a good chunk of auto profits come from replacement parts for the existing fleet potentially inflated by insurance claims and/or dealership markup. This revenue source relies on a stream of new vehicles sold as well as ongoing operation.

IRS says it's 56¢/mile for operating vehicle business deduction, so as electric autonomous vehicle service cost approaches and goes below that threshold, people will stop buying vehicles and even sell existing vehicles that others would begin to realize they shouldn't buy either. Will existing auto companies realize that soon enough or will their revenue sources disappear faster than they can react?
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by harikaried »

Rex66 wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:58 amam looking at the 2022 mdx. Maybe I’ll look at the Tesla but it’s like 40k more.
Am I looking at the right thing? 2022 MDX starts at $46,900 (with 2021 Technology+ 6.3s 0-60mph) while Model Y starts at $41,990 for 5.3s 0-60mph. Were you looking at the Y Performance $59,990 for 3.5s 0-60mph?
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by fennewaldaj »

hagridshut wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 8:25 am
In 2019, the top 5 most traded-in cars for Tesla:

1. Toyota Prius
2. BMW 3 Series
3. Honda Accord
4. Honda Civic
5. Nissan Leaf
1-4 are very very popular cars so I don't think that people are trading in those particular models means a whole lot. The leaf also makes sense as you have people who already wanted an electric car. I own a civic myself. I won't be getting a Tesla until the have a 20k model (also until our other car a 15 year old Nissan Sentra craps out).
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Kaktus »

Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:59 am
MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:52 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:48 am

They will get the data the same way Tesla does. Why will a few years of having an advantage matter much long term when it may not be legal to use at first and when Tesla still can only sell in the low millions of cars per year?
How many software engineers do you believe GM has working on this?
How many does Tesla have working on this?

Who will have a better vision of what people want 5 years from now?
Elon Musk or Mary Barra?
The software doesn’t need to come from GM, it can come from any of the big companies currently investing in it (google, apple).

My feeling is that a car is not an iPhone, there’s no ecosystem loyalty. I don’t see Tesla achieving upwards of 50% market share in the auto industry like Apple does with iPhone.

If Honda, Toyota, VW can produce an EV with range, autonomous driving, and are price competitive with more options there’s no reason why I would inherently go with Tesla instead of these other options. It’s mainly going to come down to cost. Tesla has some advantages but also some disadvantages w/r/t cost.
Or the new Chinese companies eager to copy Tesla. Having the worlds biggest home market helps and Tesla has showed you can start up a car brand from scratch.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by fennewaldaj »

benderbr wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:31 pm
andypanda wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:41 pm "A recent quote from Elon Musk was buying a non-autonomous car will soon be similar to owning a horse."

I suppose that depends on when soon arrives. There are 7 or 8 million horses in the US, compared to less than a million Teslas iirc.

I'm sure Tesla will do well, but they aren't there yet.
Fwiw, there were more than 26 million horses in the US in 1915.
This is beyond nonsense. How many of those 8 million horses do you see on the interstate?
Musk statement still seems questionable at best. Cars move like an order of magnitude faster than horses. An autonomous car still will go from point A to point B at the same rate and you still have to physically ride in it. I mean I get the appeal of being able to do other things but I am not sure it is the step change he is making it out to be. I doubt I would sell a functioning normal car to get it for example. And some people like driving.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Valuethinker »

fennewaldaj wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 4:24 am
benderbr wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:31 pm
andypanda wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:41 pm "A recent quote from Elon Musk was buying a non-autonomous car will soon be similar to owning a horse."

I suppose that depends on when soon arrives. There are 7 or 8 million horses in the US, compared to less than a million Teslas iirc.

I'm sure Tesla will do well, but they aren't there yet.
Fwiw, there were more than 26 million horses in the US in 1915.
This is beyond nonsense. How many of those 8 million horses do you see on the interstate?
Musk statement still seems questionable at best. Cars move like an order of magnitude faster than horses. An autonomous car still will go from point A to point B at the same rate and you still have to physically ride in it. I mean I get the appeal of being able to do other things but I am not sure it is the step change he is making it out to be. I doubt I would sell a functioning normal car to get it for example. And some people like driving.
Horses is just a distraction. No one is arguing with Elon Musk that horses are an important part of transport (except in the Amish parts of Pennsylvania?).

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The point about autonomous cars is they are going to operate in a world where the majority of vehicles are very non autonomous. With a lot of random factors thrown in-- like people crossing the road, at night, with a bicycle. Getting to true autonomy is going to be very hard.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Rex66 »

harikaried wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 7:19 pm
Rex66 wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:58 amam looking at the 2022 mdx. Maybe I’ll look at the Tesla but it’s like 40k more.
Am I looking at the right thing? 2022 MDX starts at $46,900 (with 2021 Technology+ 6.3s 0-60mph) while Model Y starts at $41,990 for 5.3s 0-60mph. Were you looking at the Y Performance $59,990 for 3.5s 0-60mph?
Looking for 3 rows so I would be looking at model x which I feel is more comparable
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by hagridshut »

fennewaldaj wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:18 pm
hagridshut wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 8:25 am
In 2019, the top 5 most traded-in cars for Tesla:

1. Toyota Prius
2. BMW 3 Series
3. Honda Accord
4. Honda Civic
5. Nissan Leaf
1-4 are very very popular cars so I don't think that people are trading in those particular models means a whole lot. The leaf also makes sense as you have people who already wanted an electric car. I own a civic myself. I won't be getting a Tesla until the have a 20k model (also until our other car a 15 year old Nissan Sentra craps out).
If people are trading in common cars for a performance electric vehicle, that says a lot about mainstream buyers being convinced to go electric, and spend more $ than they used to on an automobile.

From my casual reading of Tesla forums and Subreddits, a surprising number of people were gladly willing to pay 50% or even double what they paid for a Honda or Toyota, to get a Tesla in their garage.

The shift to electric is well underway and irreversible.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by wrongfunds »

Rex66 wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 8:44 am
harikaried wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 7:19 pm
Rex66 wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:58 amam looking at the 2022 mdx. Maybe I’ll look at the Tesla but it’s like 40k more.
Am I looking at the right thing? 2022 MDX starts at $46,900 (with 2021 Technology+ 6.3s 0-60mph) while Model Y starts at $41,990 for 5.3s 0-60mph. Were you looking at the Y Performance $59,990 for 3.5s 0-60mph?
Looking for 3 rows so I would be looking at model x which I feel is more comparable
I think Y with 3-row seating is now orderable. But I thought Y size is about the same RDX, not MDX? Isn't MDX bigger vehicle than Y?

But my perspective is from 1999 Honda Odyssey and 2018 Model 3 Performance as those are in my own stable and when I think of sizes, MDX is more like the Odyssey and Y is more like 3.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by harikaried »

Rex66 wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 8:44 am
harikaried wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 7:19 pm
Rex66 wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:58 amam looking at the 2022 mdx. Maybe I’ll look at the Tesla but it’s like 40k more.
Am I looking at the right thing? 2022 MDX starts at $46,900 (with 2021 Technology+ 6.3s 0-60mph) while Model Y starts at $41,990 for 5.3s 0-60mph. Were you looking at the Y Performance $59,990 for 3.5s 0-60mph?
Looking for 3 rows so I would be looking at model x which I feel is more comparable
We're actually picking up a 3rd row Model Y today. It's $3k more for the 7 seat option. It is smaller than most vehicles that seat 7, but that works out better for our narrow garage, and I'm 5'10" and rest of the family is shorter, and we should fit fine in the last row of the Y.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by joebruin77 »

wrongfunds wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:04 am
Rex66 wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 8:44 am
harikaried wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 7:19 pm
Rex66 wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:58 amam looking at the 2022 mdx. Maybe I’ll look at the Tesla but it’s like 40k more.
Am I looking at the right thing? 2022 MDX starts at $46,900 (with 2021 Technology+ 6.3s 0-60mph) while Model Y starts at $41,990 for 5.3s 0-60mph. Were you looking at the Y Performance $59,990 for 3.5s 0-60mph?
Looking for 3 rows so I would be looking at model x which I feel is more comparable
I think Y with 3-row seating is now orderable. But I thought Y size is about the same RDX, not MDX? Isn't MDX bigger vehicle than Y?

But my perspective is from 1999 Honda Odyssey and 2018 Model 3 Performance as those are in my own stable and when I think of sizes, MDX is more like the Odyssey and Y is more like 3.
Like you, I have a 2018 Model 3 Performance. I believe the Model X and the MDX would be similar in size and are a good comparison. I have owned an MDX in the past and it is a wonderful vehicle. Even though I love my Model 3 and I am a fan of Tesla in general, I personally would not buy a Model X. Those falcon doors are very cool looking, but man they malfunction and require a lot of repairs. As a result, according to Consumer Reports, the Model X is one of the least reliable cars on the road.

The Model 3 and, I predict, the Model Y are much more reliable. Neither has the air suspension nor the pop out door handles, both of which have caused problems for the Model S and Model X.

When comparing costs of Tesla and ICE alternatives, be sure to take into consideration all costs over the life of the car. For example, with no gas, no oil changes, no timing belts needing replacement, and no brake pads to be replaced, the five-year total cost of ownership for a SR+ Model 3 is about the same as some trims of a Honda Civic.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by andypanda »

"This is beyond nonsense. How many of those 8 million horses do you see on the interstate?"

Your complaint is nonsense. He didn't say anything about buying a horse to ride to work or on the Interstate. You can assume what he meant, but that wasn't what he said.

I was born in 1950 and nobody was buying horses then to ride to work and hadn't been for a very, very long time. Heck, adults weren't buying too many bicycles either and looked how they've staged a comeback. He may as well have mentioned buggy whips, flat irons or slide rules along with the horses. Or mules for that matter.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by wrongfunds »

It has been more than 2 years since I have been driving Model 3P with Enhanced Autopilot. The improvement in self-driving in those two years have left me unimpressed. And this is coming from a person who knows how exponential learning works and how much progress that has been made in general machine learning space. Voice recognition and image recognition field have made exponential gains in last decade. I am NOT seeing such a rate of progress on Tesla self-driving capability. Elon was going to have his car drive itself from West Coast to East Coast all by itself in 2018. My guess is that it will be more like 2038 before that happens and somebody else aka Comma.Ai might just beat Tesla.

Heck, even today, the car can't automatically park to the supercharger stall; one would have thought instead of doing stupid parlor tricks, Tesla would have put their engineers to add useful features which can enhance driving experience.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by benderbr »

I find AP works great in stop and go traffic and on long drives with open roads. This hugely cuts do own on driver fatigue, especially in congested traffic. Otherwise I drive myself. I would agree with wrongfunds that it hasn't improved impressively in the last couple of years. I don't see myself paying 10k more for FSD anytime soon.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by 4nursebee »

wrongfunds wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 5:38 pm It has been more than 2 years since I have been driving Model 3P with Enhanced Autopilot. The improvement in self-driving in those two years have left me unimpressed. And this is coming from a person who knows how exponential learning works and how much progress that has been made in general machine learning space. Voice recognition and image recognition field have made exponential gains in last decade. I am NOT seeing such a rate of progress on Tesla self-driving capability. Elon was going to have his car drive itself from West Coast to East Coast all by itself in 2018. My guess is that it will be more like 2038 before that happens and somebody else aka Comma.Ai might just beat Tesla.

Heck, even today, the car can't automatically park to the supercharger stall; one would have thought instead of doing stupid parlor tricks, Tesla would have put their engineers to add useful features which can enhance driving experience.
Not my experience or impression.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Semantics »

MBB_Boy wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 8:28 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:38 am
BayStater wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 9:46 pm TSLA is already a sweeping conglomerate from cars, to energy, to software/IT:
  • automaker: I think they're barely Top 20 by revenue. Not even Top 20 by # units produced. Currently, they'd be close to Subaru in revenue.
  • car retailer: If they sell 500k that's more than AutoNation, the largest new-car retailer. 3x Carvana.
  • battery manufacturer: Close to size of BYD. But Tesla supplies itself. I guess one day it could use excess capacity as a revenue stream.
  • solar manufacturer, retailer & installer: no idea on the current scale of this. But the future value is creating a "moat" or "Apple-like ecosystem" for energy with your car+home.
  • service station operator: 1,826 supercharger stations about tied with Circle K for the second largest network of any "fuel" retailer.
  • autonomous driving software company: I'm not sure on any publicly-traded company that's specifically and only in this space. But Tesla is the leader for level-2 driving that the public has access to right now.
Tesla may still be overpriced than the combined capitalization of their peers in these verticals. But I can see why it's tough to just value them against most other automakers.

I think it's really autonomous driving that captures most of the future value people price in. Every other competitor is trying to skip to level-3, 4, 5 with LIDAR and mapping.... but it's unclear if that approach is really scalable. If it is, how long it will take to develop before consumers will see those systems.

If the higher-level autonomous driving can be solved with the hardware Tesla already equips... and it's "simply" a data game (as they hope): Tesla will win.

Tesla may “win” on autonomous driving, but since when does that preclude other auto companies from developing their own data-intensive software solution?

I don’t think a first mover advantage means much here given the regulation and how much competition there is. I don’t see a particularly large moat
Probably what Apple said before making Apple maps lol
Agreed except that Tesla is the one in Apple's shoes here. They're still years behind Google and some of the other players on autonomous driving.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Semantics »

MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:52 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:48 am

They will get the data the same way Tesla does. Why will a few years of having an advantage matter much long term when it may not be legal to use at first and when Tesla still can only sell in the low millions of cars per year?
How many software engineers do you believe GM has working on this?
How many does Tesla have working on this?

Who will have a better vision of what people want 5 years from now?
Elon Musk or Mary Barra?
GM has well over 1000 software engineers working on this (Cruise Automation). By comparison, Tesla's team is ~300.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Normchad »

Semantics wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 6:19 pm
MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:52 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:48 am

They will get the data the same way Tesla does. Why will a few years of having an advantage matter much long term when it may not be legal to use at first and when Tesla still can only sell in the low millions of cars per year?
How many software engineers do you believe GM has working on this?
How many does Tesla have working on this?

Who will have a better vision of what people want 5 years from now?
Elon Musk or Mary Barra?
GM has well over 1000 software engineers working on this (Cruise Automation). By comparison, Tesla's team is ~300.
Given GMs truly epic loss of market share since 1990, I’m not betting on them to have a better vision of what people want 5 years from now. I wish they’d wake up and be awesome again, but there is zero reason to assume they will.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Jags4186 »

Tesla may crash and burn or continue to impress, what’s most important to me about Tesla is that it is a cutting edge American company which, to me at least, proves the US is still the innovation leader in the world.

I believe Apple entering the car space will be crucial to Tesla’s growth. You know Apple won’t release anything mediocre which means there will finally be actual competition in the electric car space. That means better cars at even better prices and better adoption. If a Model 3 cost $30,000 OTDinstead of $50,000+ OTD, I’d be in one.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Semantics »

Normchad wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 6:33 pm
Semantics wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 6:19 pm
MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:52 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:48 am

They will get the data the same way Tesla does. Why will a few years of having an advantage matter much long term when it may not be legal to use at first and when Tesla still can only sell in the low millions of cars per year?
How many software engineers do you believe GM has working on this?
How many does Tesla have working on this?

Who will have a better vision of what people want 5 years from now?
Elon Musk or Mary Barra?
GM has well over 1000 software engineers working on this (Cruise Automation). By comparison, Tesla's team is ~300.
Given GMs truly epic loss of market share since 1990, I’m not betting on them to have a better vision of what people want 5 years from now. I wish they’d wake up and be awesome again, but there is zero reason to assume they will.
Cruise is still a separate company though, GM are not the only investors in them - Microsoft just invested in their latest round too.

Aurora, Waymo, Yandex, Mobileye, and some of the Chinese companies also have larger teams working on this problem than Tesla. If they were actually working on the same problem I would agree that data and experience would give one team the edge, but L2 and L4 are orders of magnitude different and there's a good reason that out of dozens of companies working in this space, only one has chosen cameras and not LIDAR and to start with L2 and try to incrementally get to L4. Hint: it's not because they're smarter than everyone else, it's because their actual product is a L2 system so that's the priority. The fact that none of the companies for which L4 is existential to their business are starting at L2 or using less reliable sensing hardware should tell you something.

Musk is not an idiot. He knows that the success of the company is down to their ability to produce cars. FSD is secondary; a luxury feature. The company can and will thrive with or without it. He also knows it will take years and years for anyone else to roll out a true L4 service at scale, and so in the meantime Tesla's L2 system is a great way to differentiate their product. If they were truly prioritizing L4, you would have seen cars driving on public roads with no human supervision like other companies have done in tests. But they're not close to that yet, because it's not critical to their business, and not worth the risk and effort. At say 2T market cap, a few years from now they can just buy one of the leaders in that space.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by stoptothink »

joebruin77 wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 1:13 pm

When comparing costs of Tesla and ICE alternatives, be sure to take into consideration all costs over the life of the car. For example, with no gas, no oil changes, no timing belts needing replacement, and no brake pads to be replaced, the five-year total cost of ownership for a SR+ Model 3 is about the same as some trims of a Honda Civic.
Unless you are driving 20K+ miles a year, a civic won't need any belts or brake pads replaced at 5yrs, and the delta in cost between gas and electric varies wildly throughout the country. Not to mention a model 3 eats tires way faster than a civic and costs more to insure, which might completely negate any maintenance cost benefit it had. I've seen this statement so many times (and I'm a huge EV fan with no interest in ever buying another ICE vehicle), but with my math it doesn't even remotely make sense. Compared to an actual competitor, like a BMW 3-series, yes it makes sense.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by cusetownusa »

Rex66 wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:58 am
hagridshut wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 8:25 am
learntoinvest123 wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:41 pmThe market for EVs as it stands is very tiny, and none of these companies feel there is a fundamental shift of consumers to EVs yet.
The Mainstream Media has spread the false notion that there is an "EV" market that is distinct from automobiles generally.

Electric cars can now serve as direct replacements to gasoline cars, because DC Fast Charging technology allows drivers of electrics to travel long distances with minimal inconvenience. The Supercharger network (Tesla worldwide) and Ionity network (EU) are examples of DC Fast Charging infrastructure.

https://www.tesla.com/supercharger

Electric cars can usually be charged at home overnight, like a mobile phone. On the road, they can be recharged in 30 minutes during meal breaks.


I have nothing against Tesla. What I am saying is the valuation of Tesla is bigger than next 10 automobile companies combined. Yet you do not see Honda or Toyota panicking and putting out one EV after another.

Can Tesla put Honda or Toyota out of existence? it is possible, but you don't see the market betting on it yet. Take a look at Honda and Toyota stock (those are not bankruptcy valuations).

Once market shifts to EVs, Tesla will have tons of competition.
Honda and Toyota cannot deliver any credible volume of electric vehicles. They lack battery supply. Both companies also made substantial investments in hydrogen fuel cell technology (Toyota just started selling its latest generation Mirai FCEV sedan).

Even if they were in a panic, there is nothing they can do in the short term.

Their existing manufacturing infrastructure is also overwhelmingly geared towards building Internal Combustion Engines and transmissions for those engines. Stranded assets.


There are 10 other established automakers, 2 Japanese that have a faithful following.
In 2019, the top 5 most traded-in cars for Tesla:

1. Toyota Prius
2. BMW 3 Series
3. Honda Accord
4. Honda Civic
5. Nissan Leaf

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019 ... ore%20rows

Customer loyalty won't save Honda and Toyota.

They have nothing today that compares to a Tesla Model 3, and probably won't for years.

Drive an Acura RDX (Honda's luxury crossover) and then compare it to a Tesla Model Y. It is completely obvious that Honda is drastically behind in electronics and computers. The RDX is basically an antique, and the current generation RDX is early in its production cycle.
That’s interesting since I find the rdx pretty advanced and am looking at the 2022 mdx. Maybe I’ll look at the Tesla but it’s like 40k more.
40k more? Where do you get this info from. A model Y is $50,000.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by wrongfunds »

By the way, when a Model 3 Performance owner says something about saving money (or operating costs) on Tesla vs say Civic, you should just nod and wink :-) Now I give you that some places in USA do have very cheap electricity rates where it might be cheaper to operate than a gas powered car but the real life difference is quite a bit less than advertised. Jason of youtube fame (EngineeringExplained) drove his M3P 2500 miles recently. Total electricity costs was less than an equivalent gas car but not by a lot, at the most 25% savings if I recall.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by harikaried »

stoptothink wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:06 pmthe delta in cost between gas and electric varies wildly throughout the country. Not to mention a model 3 ... costs more to insure
Just some anecdata, the 7 seat Model Y we purchased for $64k was $800 to insure a year while the 7 year old vehicle it replaced originally cost $32k and $600 insurance today. Costco gas $2.59 @ 24mpg is $1080 to drive 10k miles vs 4.6¢/kWh EV charging (ignoring our solar) @ 4mi/kWh is $115. (Curiously, our 3 year old Model 3 with similar purchase price as the Y costs $1200 to insure and has similar efficiency but less range.)

A good chunk of the higher Tesla prices is from purchasing Full Self Driving where from our experience in the Model 3, it has been relatively disappointing to see minor (backwards compatible for 2016 vehicles) improvements to highway driving over the years due to Tesla focusing on new city driving functionality using the latest hardware (which is in vehicles that are 3+ years now but mostly underused). I do think FSD initial public release with human supervision will be quite soon and very capable, and hopefully those improvements can make it to older vehicles and those with just basic Autopilot too.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by stoptothink »

harikaried wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:41 pm
stoptothink wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:06 pmthe delta in cost between gas and electric varies wildly throughout the country. Not to mention a model 3 ... costs more to insure
Just some anecdata, the 7 seat Model Y we purchased for $64k was $800 to insure a year while the 7 year old vehicle it replaced originally cost $32k and $600 insurance today. Costco gas $2.59 @ 24mpg is $1080 to drive 10k miles vs 4.6¢/kWh EV charging (ignoring our solar) @ 4mi/kWh is $115. (Curiously, our 3 year old Model 3 with similar purchase price as the Y costs $1200 to insure and has similar efficiency but less range.)

A good chunk of the higher Tesla prices is from purchasing Full Self Driving where from our experience in the Model 3, it has been relatively disappointing to see minor (backwards compatible for 2016 vehicles) improvements to highway driving over the years due to Tesla focusing on new city driving functionality using the latest hardware (which is in vehicles that are 3+ years now but mostly underused). I do think FSD initial public release with human supervision will be quite soon and very capable, and hopefully those improvements can make it to older vehicles and those with just basic Autopilot too.
Not sure what any of that has to do with the previous comparison of cost of ownership between a model 3 and a civic. The difference in fuel costs would be eaten up by tires alone. The Google says that a model 3 cost ~50% more to insure than the "national average car" https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/insu ... -insurance. It takes some serious accounting gymnastics to make that comparison with an economy car, yet we hear that line constantly. There is no need to play these games when it is an amazing car when compared to it direct competitors; and yes, it's likely I'll buy one as our next vehicle.
Last edited by stoptothink on Thu Feb 04, 2021 8:12 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by z3r0c00l »

joebruin77 wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:34 am One of my first lessons in buying stocks was when my dad told me to pay attention to products that I like and that are the best compared to other products on the market. As a result of this, at 10 years old, I bought a couple shares of Coca Cola stock.
So Kodak, Commodore International, Pan Am, and GE?
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