TSLA: What Changed?

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harikaried
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by harikaried »

dacalo wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 2:52 pmDisclosure: Tesla Model 3 owner and planning to get a Model X down the road.
Consumer Reports just released their "most satisfying cars" 2021 survey with all 4 Tesla vehicles in the top 10 (1. Model 3, 3. Model S, 4. Model Y, 10. Model X) https://www.consumerreports.org/car-rel ... isfaction/

Maybe a good portion of "What Changed" is just that Tesla has delivered over 1.5 million vehicles to people, and people who previously were skeptical before have experienced why other Tesla owners are satisfied and would want to buy another Tesla. Beginning of 2019, Tesla was closer to 500k total vehicles sold, and end of this year it'll be closer to 2.5 million cumulative sales.
harikaried
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by harikaried »

At least in the US, Tesla is leading EV sales with 79% market share with 201k registrations in 2020. Some people were saying it would drop because it's the first full year without any of the $7500 federal EV credit, but all 4 of Tesla vehicles (S/3/X/Y) were in the top 5 giving up position 3 to Chevy Bolt with 20k registrations, and position 6 doesn't even reach 9k.

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesl ... ations-us/

Tesla seems to be heavily focusing on local production now in contrast to beginning of 2020, only the one Fremont factory made vehicles for the whole world. Shanghai factory did produce and sell vehicles totaling around 150k out of the 500k deliveries in 2020, so it seems like Fremont produced and sold roughly 60% of its capacity to local destinations. Unclear how Tesla will balance Fremont's shared Model 3/Y production lines as Model 3s are made for US and international deliveries while Model Ys are only for North America, but assuming that ratio is relatively stable (without COVID shutdowns) and if the Texas factory Model Y line starts ramping production this year, it seems quite possible for Tesla to capture higher than 80% US EV market share even with incoming competition.
ohboy!
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by ohboy! »

harikaried wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 2:50 pm Ha. This article says Tesla's Bitcoin purchase in January currently has around $561 million unrealized gains today. For some context, Tesla reported $401 million regulatory credits for Q4 2020. The real reason must be to distract from people complaining about Tesla being profitable only because of these other sources! :wink: :P https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-bi ... 20202.html
Bitcoin is quickly becoming their biggest profit maker.
stocknoob4111
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by stocknoob4111 »

skyrocketing today on the Hertz news and up 32% just since this thread was created... the meteoric rise of 2500% in the last 5 years is simply breathtaking!! Have never seen a stock like this and they are saying this is just the beginning for this stock.

My friend bought $10K worth when the price was $500 bucks pre-split, now it's over $5000 pre-split, he has made a killing. The trick now is to take profits and pay crazy taxes or hold long term and risk a possible crash.
atdharris
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by atdharris »

I bought 1 share pre-split just for fun and obviously wish I had bought a normal position in the stock - but who saw this coming aside from Cathie Wood?
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burritoLover
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by burritoLover »

Yeah idiotic valuations can go on for a long time, making those who got in early feel like investing geniuses, at least until the market gets back to reality and they get stuck in the limbo of waiting for it to rise again so they can merely break even.
minimalistmarc
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by minimalistmarc »

atdharris wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 2:39 pm I bought 1 share pre-split just for fun and obviously wish I had bought a normal position in the stock - but who saw this coming aside from Cathie Wood?

Cathie Wood just got lucky, like most successful stock pickers. I can’t remember the exact reason, but basically she said Tesla was going to go higher for completely different reasons (which haven’t happened)
Gufomel
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Gufomel »

$1T market cap. Wow.
harikaried
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by harikaried »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 2:36 pmskyrocketing today on the Hertz news
There was some other news since Friday such as S&P credit rating upgrade although not yet investment grade (minimum BBB-), so technically $1T market cap with speculative grade "junk" bonds. Other news include Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas increasing price target to $1200 and separately news about Full Self-Driving rollout, but nobody really knows what moved the stock price.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by sjl333 »

This is just the beginning . Tesla is a juggernaut. Will be the most valuable company in 5-10 years. Holding long until 2030 minimum. Holding 1110 shares. Made 120k today.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by mrspock »

They operate in an industry where the other players just so there and stare as Tesla eats into their market share. Like come on… has anyone looked at the interior of a GM lately? How about a RAV4 from Toyota? Truly pathetic, sheer embarrassment.

The only manufacturers who got the message appears to be VW/Audi and Ford. The others are dinosaurs.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by NoMansLand »

The worst thing that can happen to a trade is for it to roll down the curve of what's possible to what *is*.
harikaried
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by harikaried »

mrspock wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 5:21 pmThe only manufacturers who got the message appears to be VW/Audi and Ford
There was an interesting quote about the 100k Tesla rental fleet from Hertz interim CEO Mark Fields (Ford's CEO until 2017): “Tesla is the only manufacturer that can produce EVs at scale.”
secondopinion
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by secondopinion »

mrspock wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 5:21 pm They operate in an industry where the other players just so there and stare as Tesla eats into their market share. Like come on… has anyone looked at the interior of a GM lately? How about a RAV4 from Toyota? Truly pathetic, sheer embarrassment.

The only manufacturers who got the message appears to be VW/Audi and Ford. The others are dinosaurs.
Good old Ford... A dinosaur that might live past the EV asteroid hitting the Earth.

Speculation on a Popsicle stick where I am no longer taking a position, but it is fun to make the statement anyway.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by xraygoggles »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 2:36 pm skyrocketing today on the Hertz news and up 32% just since this thread was created... the meteoric rise of 2500% in the last 5 years is simply breathtaking!! Have never seen a stock like this and they are saying this is just the beginning for this stock.

My friend bought $10K worth when the price was $500 bucks pre-split, now it's over $5000 pre-split, he has made a killing. The trick now is to take profits and pay crazy taxes or hold long term and risk a possible crash.
Let your winners ride, at least partially. Sell half maybe.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by srt7 »

mrspock wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 5:21 pm They operate in an industry where the other players just so there and stare as Tesla eats into their market share. Like come on… has anyone looked at the interior of a GM lately? How about a RAV4 from Toyota? Truly pathetic, sheer embarrassment.

The only manufacturers who got the message appears to be VW/Audi and Ford. The others are dinosaurs.
Holy Batman, Mr. Spock!! :o I was simply not expecting this from you.

I'll need to go take a second look at a Tesla now. Glad I kept those 20 (token) stocks.
Taking care of tomorrow while enjoying today.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nathan Drake »

sjl333 wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 5:17 pm This is just the beginning . Tesla is a juggernaut. Will be the most valuable company in 5-10 years. Holding long until 2030 minimum. Holding 1110 shares. Made 120k today.
It’ll probably crash and see the stock go sideways as it grows into its lofty valuations / expectations
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burritoLover
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by burritoLover »

1/3rd of the entire market cap of all the world’s auto manufacturers - lol lol lol
Explorer
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Explorer »

Ford's market cap is $63B, and GM's $83B.. Tesla at $1T

Just today, Tesla goes up by 12%

coz Hertz, which emerged from bankruptcy on July 1st 2021, placed an order for 100,000 tesla cars.

Greenspan's words ring in my ears "Irrational Exuberance."
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mrspock
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by mrspock »

Explorer wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 7:52 pm Ford's market cap is $63B, and GM's $83B.. Tesla at $1T

Just today, Tesla goes up by 12%

coz Hertz, which emerged from bankruptcy on July 1st 2021, placed an order for 100,000 tesla cars.

Greenspan's words ring in my ears "Irrational Exuberance."
If you think that’s why it’s up 12%, think again. Nobody cares about the 100k Hertz cars (424k cars in fleet total)… they care about SixT (115k cars), Enterprise (700k cars) and Avis Budget Group (650k cars), and then all the people who will get to experience a Tesla for the first time when they rent.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by folkher0 »

Explorer wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 7:52 pm Ford's market cap is $63B, and GM's $83B.. Tesla at $1T

Just today, Tesla goes up by 12%

coz Hertz, which emerged from bankruptcy on July 1st 2021, placed an order for 100,000 tesla cars.

Greenspan's words ring in my ears "Irrational Exuberance."
It is increasingly clear that electric cars are the future and the internal combustion engine will be obsolete in 15 years.

It’s not that hertz ordered 100,000 cars. It’s that
only one company can realistically fill a contract for 100,000 cars.

Can any other car maker catch up? Really?
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nathan Drake »

mrspock wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:07 pm
Explorer wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 7:52 pm Ford's market cap is $63B, and GM's $83B.. Tesla at $1T

Just today, Tesla goes up by 12%

coz Hertz, which emerged from bankruptcy on July 1st 2021, placed an order for 100,000 tesla cars.

Greenspan's words ring in my ears "Irrational Exuberance."
If you think that’s why it’s up 12%, think again. Nobody cares about the 100k Hertz cars (424k cars in fleet total)… they care about SixT (115k cars), Enterprise (700k cars) and Avis Budget Group (650k cars), and then all the people who will get to experience a Tesla for the first time when they rent.
So Tesla is worth 150B more because of this news?

Basically a few more automaker market caps?
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Carguy85
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Carguy85 »

Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:08 pm So Tesla is worth 150B more because of this news?
Basically a few more automaker market caps?
Um yeah...why doesn’t that make sense to you? [enter sarcasm]😂
Last edited by Carguy85 on Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
sjl333
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by sjl333 »

The logic of comparing Tesla to other Automakers is so flawed….
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burritoLover
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by burritoLover »

sjl333 wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:13 pm The logic of comparing Tesla to other Automakers is so flawed….
Enlighten us.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Jags4186 »

folkher0 wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:08 pm
Explorer wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 7:52 pm Ford's market cap is $63B, and GM's $83B.. Tesla at $1T

Just today, Tesla goes up by 12%

coz Hertz, which emerged from bankruptcy on July 1st 2021, placed an order for 100,000 tesla cars.

Greenspan's words ring in my ears "Irrational Exuberance."
It is increasingly clear that electric cars are the future and the internal combustion engine will be obsolete in 15 years.

It’s not that hertz ordered 100,000 cars. It’s that
only one company can realistically fill a contract for 100,000 cars.

Can any other car maker catch up? Really?
The same has been said before about many companies and many products. The answer is undoubtedly YES another company can catch up. In fact, I would bet another company does catch up and surpass Tesla’s technology and product. When that happens which company does it is anyone’s guess.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by aqan »

burritoLover wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:18 pm
sjl333 wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:13 pm The logic of comparing Tesla to other Automakers is so flawed….
Enlighten us.
Open your eyes.
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bligh
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by bligh »

burritoLover wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:18 pm
sjl333 wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:13 pm The logic of comparing Tesla to other Automakers is so flawed….
Enlighten us.
I love Tesla but think it is super over valued. However I know nothing and am a Boglehead.

However to play devil's advocate here, one could say that comparing Tesla to Ford for example, is like comparing Amazon to Walmart. Or 10 years ago, Apple compared to Nokia or Blackberry. One is disrupting an entire industry the other is in the industry being disrupted.
Last edited by bligh on Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
folkher0
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by folkher0 »

Jags4186 wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:19 pm
folkher0 wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:08 pm
Explorer wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 7:52 pm Ford's market cap is $63B, and GM's $83B.. Tesla at $1T

Just today, Tesla goes up by 12%

coz Hertz, which emerged from bankruptcy on July 1st 2021, placed an order for 100,000 tesla cars.

Greenspan's words ring in my ears "Irrational Exuberance."
It is increasingly clear that electric cars are the future and the internal combustion engine will be obsolete in 15 years.

It’s not that hertz ordered 100,000 cars. It’s that
only one company can realistically fill a contract for 100,000 cars.

Can any other car maker catch up? Really?
The same has been said before about many companies and many products. The answer is undoubtedly YES another company can catch up. In fact, I would bet another company does catch up and surpass Tesla’s technology and product. When that happens which company does it is anyone’s guess.
Sure someday. But for the foreseeable future tesla is the standard. Analogous to Ford when the Model T came out. There will be other automakers but until they build something better than Tesla and can do it at scale they are playing catch up.

Then of course is the issue of the charging network and infrastructure. If anything Tesla is even farther ahead of it’s competitors.

FWIW I have never been in a Tesla and don’t own any stock.
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burritoLover
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by burritoLover »

aqan wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:50 pm
burritoLover wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:18 pm
sjl333 wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:13 pm The logic of comparing Tesla to other Automakers is so flawed….
Enlighten us.
Open your eyes.
I see other traditional automakers and new EV-only automakers rapidly catching up. Their “full self driving” is wrought with issues and set backs. Numerous quality issues. And their non-automotive business is still unimpressive. Future prospects look muted with a lot more competition crowding their space.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by sjl333 »

burritoLover wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:01 pm
aqan wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:50 pm
burritoLover wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:18 pm
sjl333 wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:13 pm The logic of comparing Tesla to other Automakers is so flawed….
Enlighten us.
Open your eyes.
I see other traditional automakers and new EV-only automakers rapidly catching up. Their “full self driving” is wrought with issues and set backs. Numerous quality issues. And their non-automotive business is still unimpressive. Future prospects look muted with a lot more competition crowding their space.
:oops: You are so off base and I believe everything opposite of your viewpoint . We shall see who is right…. time will tell…I’ll eat my words if I’m wrong.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Shorty »

They’re a technology company. AI/data. Also energy. Disruptive technology. Wish it was an option to get in SpaceX.

Rivian has been solid too.
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burritoLover
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by burritoLover »

Cisco once was the most valuable company in the world. And it has had respectable earnings over the 20 year period since it fell dramatically from its perch. It just couldn’t live up to the ridiculous valuation. All the same platitudes about technology and the future and lack of competition were thrown about at the time. The “can’t lose” stock was supposed to be the first $1 trillion company ever - never made it and dropped 80% after the bubble burst.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Soysauceonrice »

burritoLover wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:18 pm
sjl333 wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:13 pm The logic of comparing Tesla to other Automakers is so flawed….
Enlighten us.
It's really simple; they aren't a traditional car company and the car isn't comparable to the traditional car most are used to. It sounds a bit cliché, but you just have to own one to understand. I was never a Tesla fanboy, but once I test drove one and now after owning a Model 3 for a year, I really can't see myself going back to a traditional internal combustion engine car. The acceleration is excellent, as is the idea of never visiting a gas station again (other than for a potty break on a long road-trips). The software in the Teslas, along with the OTA updates, are years ahead of any of the traditional car makers. Their charging infrastructure is significantly more developed, and this is key, far more reliable than competitor networks such as Electrify America. When I roll up to a supercharger, I don't have to wonder if the chargers are out of order. Every single supper charger I have stopped at was working, 100% of the time. That isn't true of the competing networks.

If you believe electric cars are the future, and I do believe that they are, then Teslas have a massive lead that the GM and Fords of the world won't easily catch up to. I attribute this to the fact that Tesla is 100% all in on electrification. That focus allows them to do what they do extremely well, whereas the legacy automakers are still focusing on traditional cars and making electric cars a side-hobby.

None of this justifies the company being worth a trillion. They're almost certainly over-valued. But to compare them to the traditional auto-makers is severely missing the point.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Soysauceonrice »

burritoLover wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:48 pm Cisco once was the most valuable company in the world. And it has had respectable earnings over the 20 year period since it fell dramatically from its perch. It just couldn’t live up to the ridiculous valuation. All the same platitudes about technology and the future and lack of competition were thrown about at the time. The “can’t lose” stock was supposed to be the first $1 trillion company ever - never made it and dropped 80% after the bubble burst.
Counterpoint, Apple and the iphone. When the first iphone was announced, Motorola and Nokia were the undisputed leaders in the cellphone market. Motorola's CTO said:
There is nothing revolutionary or disruptive about any of the technologies. Touch interface, movement sensors, accelerometer, morphing, gesture recognition, 2-megapixel camera, built in MP3 player, WiFi, Bluetooth, are already available in products from leaders in the mobile industry – Motorola, Nokia and Samsung. So, what appears to be the initial pricing at $499 and $599 with a minimum 2 year service agreement seems a stretch.
Clearly, technology isn't just a buzzword.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Yesterdaysnews »

Tesla is an amazing company with a great product with their vehicles…. But a $1 Trillion valuation is insane. It’s pricing in a lot of speculative business lines which are by no means a sure thing (AI, FSD, energy).
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Jags4186 »

Soysauceonrice wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:54 pm
burritoLover wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:48 pm Cisco once was the most valuable company in the world. And it has had respectable earnings over the 20 year period since it fell dramatically from its perch. It just couldn’t live up to the ridiculous valuation. All the same platitudes about technology and the future and lack of competition were thrown about at the time. The “can’t lose” stock was supposed to be the first $1 trillion company ever - never made it and dropped 80% after the bubble burst.
Counterpoint, Apple and the iphone. When the first iphone was announced, Motorola and Nokia were the undisputed leaders in the cellphone market. Motorola's CTO said:
There is nothing revolutionary or disruptive about any of the technologies. Touch interface, movement sensors, accelerometer, morphing, gesture recognition, 2-megapixel camera, built in MP3 player, WiFi, Bluetooth, are already available in products from leaders in the mobile industry – Motorola, Nokia and Samsung. So, what appears to be the initial pricing at $499 and $599 with a minimum 2 year service agreement seems a stretch.
Clearly, technology isn't just a buzzword.
Okay, so is Tesla the Apple of 2007 or the Apple of 1984?
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by whodidntante »

Somewhere, DanMahowny is still short.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nathan Drake »

Soysauceonrice wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:50 pm
burritoLover wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:18 pm
sjl333 wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:13 pm The logic of comparing Tesla to other Automakers is so flawed….
Enlighten us.
It's really simple; they aren't a traditional car company and the car isn't comparable to the traditional car most are used to. It sounds a bit cliché, but you just have to own one to understand. I was never a Tesla fanboy, but once I test drove one and now after owning a Model 3 for a year, I really can't see myself going back to a traditional internal combustion engine car. The acceleration is excellent, as is the idea of never visiting a gas station again (other than for a potty break on a long road-trips). The software in the Teslas, along with the OTA updates, are years ahead of any of the traditional car makers. Their charging infrastructure is significantly more developed, and this is key, far more reliable than competitor networks such as Electrify America. When I roll up to a supercharger, I don't have to wonder if the chargers are out of order. Every single supper charger I have stopped at was working, 100% of the time. That isn't true of the competing networks.

If you believe electric cars are the future, and I do believe that they are, then Teslas have a massive lead that the GM and Fords of the world won't easily catch up to. I attribute this to the fact that Tesla is 100% all in on electrification. That focus allows them to do what they do extremely well, whereas the legacy automakers are still focusing on traditional cars and making electric cars a side-hobby.

None of this justifies the company being worth a trillion. They're almost certainly over-valued. But to compare them to the traditional auto-makers is severely missing the point.
I have some family members that own Teslas and I've driven both the Model S and 3 with all the bells and whistles. It's still a car. It gets you from point A to point B. I came away thinking that if they were price competitive, I may pick one up in the future. But I would also be just as fine picking up a rival EV that is substantially cheaper.

They are not a Phone. I am in my Vehicle only a few times per day briefly at most. They do not justify a premium like a Phone does due to regular use. Most modern cars can simply hook up their iPhone and receive a very modern dashboard experience. Charging stations will be ubiquitous and not exclusive to one maker.

EVs will likely be the future, no doubt about it, and there will be many winners and losers (and I think Tesla will be a winner), but as you said it does NOT justify their market capitalization. They are trading at ~30 P/S. A P/S ratio of 10 is already insanity. Tesla is triple insanity. VW for instance is putting together a massive push for EVs and have the expertise to bring them to scale and provide a price competitive product in relatively short order. Margins for EVs will be very tight, and it's doubtful Tesla will command much of a premium.

So how do we get to a $1T valuation? It's not off car sales. It's off software as a service in the autonomous or robo-taxi space. We are a long ways from that being a reality, and we do not know if Tesla's solution will truly be able to achieve L5. They've taken a firm stance on reducing sensors and focus heavily on cameras. That could be a wrong call. And when it comes to regulation, it is highly doubtful that the regulators will allow an Autonomous infrastructure that doesn't have some sort of conformance standards of shared technology across multiple developers, if regulation in the FAA space is anything to go by. Their energy ambitious with Batteries could just as easily be disrupted by solid-state battery makers, rendering that entire business line obsolete.

A bet on Tesla right now is mostly a bet that they will have a significant first mover advantage in L5 autonomy, and that's a fantasy right now with a whole heck of a lot that can go wrong. I like the company, I do not like the stock.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by anonsdca »

"....if we assume the market is efficient and prices in all known info about the future, what is the prevailing explanation for its all-of-sudden meteoric rise..."

Op's assumption was wrong from the beginning. The market has never been efficient, nor will it ever be. So sad he believes that.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nathan Drake »

anonsdca wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 10:21 pm "....if we assume the market is efficient and prices in all known info about the future, what is the prevailing explanation for its all-of-sudden meteoric rise..."

Op's assumption was wrong from the beginning. The market has never been efficient, nor will it ever be. So sad he believes that.
The market is extremely efficient at pricing in the collective delusion of crowds at any given moment.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Normchad »

whodidntante wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 10:11 pm Somewhere, DanMahowny is still short.
Now that’s funny. At this point, he’s righter than he’s ever been.
changt81
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by changt81 »

This reminds me the following tweets from Jeff Bezos on 10/10/2021.

https://twitter.com/jeffbezos/status/14 ... 88011?s=21

Maybe Amazon in some ppl's mind are also overvalued :D
Normchad
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Normchad »

burritoLover wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:01 pm
aqan wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:50 pm
burritoLover wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:18 pm
sjl333 wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:13 pm The logic of comparing Tesla to other Automakers is so flawed….
Enlighten us.
Open your eyes.
I see other traditional automakers and new EV-only automakers rapidly catching up. Their “full self driving” is wrought with issues and set backs. Numerous quality issues. And their non-automotive business is still unimpressive. Future prospects look muted with a lot more competition crowding their space.
I own a Tesla and love it. But I sold my stock a long time ago.

I expect other automakers to get there eventually. I just don’t know how much longer I have to wait before other makers actually show up….

Nobody has to catch Tesla to really crimp their value. They only have to get “close enough”.

I fear Tesla might be more like Tivo than anything else. Completely awesome. Completely disruptive. Awesome right from the start. And completely irrelevant now because they were swamped and overcome by inferior imitators that were “good enough “.
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burritoLover
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by burritoLover »

Soysauceonrice wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:50 pm
burritoLover wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:18 pm
sjl333 wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:13 pm The logic of comparing Tesla to other Automakers is so flawed….
Enlighten us.
It's really simple; they aren't a traditional car company and the car isn't comparable to the traditional car most are used to. It sounds a bit cliché, but you just have to own one to understand. I was never a Tesla fanboy, but once I test drove one and now after owning a Model 3 for a year, I really can't see myself going back to a traditional internal combustion engine car. The acceleration is excellent, as is the idea of never visiting a gas station again (other than for a potty break on a long road-trips). The software in the Teslas, along with the OTA updates, are years ahead of any of the traditional car makers. Their charging infrastructure is significantly more developed, and this is key, far more reliable than competitor networks such as Electrify America. When I roll up to a supercharger, I don't have to wonder if the chargers are out of order. Every single supper charger I have stopped at was working, 100% of the time. That isn't true of the competing networks.

If you believe electric cars are the future, and I do believe that they are, then Teslas have a massive lead that the GM and Fords of the world won't easily catch up to. I attribute this to the fact that Tesla is 100% all in on electrification. That focus allows them to do what they do extremely well, whereas the legacy automakers are still focusing on traditional cars and making electric cars a side-hobby.

None of this justifies the company being worth a trillion. They're almost certainly over-valued. But to compare them to the traditional auto-makers is severely missing the point.
I own a model 3 performance and everything you said about it I agree with (except they do have superchargers that go out of service). And I believe that EVs are the future. That’s irrelevant - the internet was undoubtedly the future during the dot com bubble and has so vastly impacted every facet of our lives over the next 20 years - even more than anyone could have imagined. Yet a company like Cisco, poised to be the “shovel seller during a gold rush”, whose fundamentals were vastly superior then as compared to Tesla now, was a terrible investment going forward.

The comparison to Apple is misguided too. Tesla had a monopoly on EVs - key word “had”. A number of EVs have been released from other manufacturers since and Tesla is poised to get knocked off their pedestal by the likes of the 22’ Lucid Air with the first over 500 mile range EV (520 mi EPA tested) and Rivian being the first EV truck for sale - beating Tesla’s much delayed Cybertruck.

Tesla’s supercharger network also is losing its advantages - other charging competitors are moving into the space and growing rapidly and even Biden wants to subsidize a massive EV charging network across the country.

Maybe their biggest asset is their self-driving technology which they could license to others. But Tesla has over-promised and under-delivered on this feature SO many times, it has become almost laughable. And the government is also not so keen on them using their customers to effectively beta test self-driving changes - which is a potential risk.

Bottom line, it doesn’t matter how promising a company’s future is if you overpay for the privilege of owning the stock. Your returns can still be crappy even if Tesla lives up to everthing you expect.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by 4nursebee »

burritoLover wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 10:41 pm
Soysauceonrice wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:50 pm
burritoLover wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:18 pm
sjl333 wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:13 pm The logic of comparing Tesla to other Automakers is so flawed….
Enlighten us.
It's really simple; they aren't a traditional car company and the car isn't comparable to the traditional car most are used to. It sounds a bit cliché, but you just have to own one to understand. I was never a Tesla fanboy, but once I test drove one and now after owning a Model 3 for a year, I really can't see myself going back to a traditional internal combustion engine car. The acceleration is excellent, as is the idea of never visiting a gas station again (other than for a potty break on a long road-trips). The software in the Teslas, along with the OTA updates, are years ahead of any of the traditional car makers. Their charging infrastructure is significantly more developed, and this is key, far more reliable than competitor networks such as Electrify America. When I roll up to a supercharger, I don't have to wonder if the chargers are out of order. Every single supper charger I have stopped at was working, 100% of the time. That isn't true of the competing networks.

If you believe electric cars are the future, and I do believe that they are, then Teslas have a massive lead that the GM and Fords of the world won't easily catch up to. I attribute this to the fact that Tesla is 100% all in on electrification. That focus allows them to do what they do extremely well, whereas the legacy automakers are still focusing on traditional cars and making electric cars a side-hobby.

None of this justifies the company being worth a trillion. They're almost certainly over-valued. But to compare them to the traditional auto-makers is severely missing the point.
I own a model 3 performance and everything you said about it I agree with (except they do have superchargers that go out of service). And I believe that EVs are the future. That’s irrelevant - the internet was undoubtedly the future during the dot com bubble and has so vastly impacted every facet of our lives over the next 20 years - even more than anyone could have imagined. Yet a company like Cisco, poised to be the “shovel seller during a gold rush”, whose fundamentals were vastly superior then as compared to Tesla now, was a terrible investment going forward.

The comparison to Apple is misguided too. Tesla had a monopoly on EVs - key word “had”. A number of EVs have been released from other manufacturers since and Tesla is poised to get knocked off their pedestal by the likes of the 22’ Lucid Air with the first over 500 mile range EV (520 mi EPA tested) and Rivian being the first EV truck for sale - beating Tesla’s much delayed Cybertruck.

Tesla’s supercharger network also is losing its advantages - other charging competitors are moving into the space and growing rapidly and even Biden wants to subsidize a massive EV charging network across the country.

Maybe their biggest asset is their self-driving technology which they could license to others. But Tesla has over-promised and under-delivered on this feature SO many times, it has become almost laughable. And the government is also not so keen on them using their customers to effectively beta test self-driving changes - which is a potential risk.

Bottom line, it doesn’t matter how promising a company’s future is if you overpay for the privilege of owning the stock. Your returns can still be crappy even if Tesla lives up to everthing you expect.
Using a phrase like "bottom line" in a well written clearly thought out piece like this after a day like yesterday? Well, yesterday, every negative and bearish person was proven wrong.

When results are different than expected, perhaps folks should change their minds or at least just say they don't get it?
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burritoLover
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by burritoLover »

4nursebee wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 10:55 pm
burritoLover wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 10:41 pm
Soysauceonrice wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:50 pm
burritoLover wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:18 pm
sjl333 wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:13 pm The logic of comparing Tesla to other Automakers is so flawed….
Enlighten us.
It's really simple; they aren't a traditional car company and the car isn't comparable to the traditional car most are used to. It sounds a bit cliché, but you just have to own one to understand. I was never a Tesla fanboy, but once I test drove one and now after owning a Model 3 for a year, I really can't see myself going back to a traditional internal combustion engine car. The acceleration is excellent, as is the idea of never visiting a gas station again (other than for a potty break on a long road-trips). The software in the Teslas, along with the OTA updates, are years ahead of any of the traditional car makers. Their charging infrastructure is significantly more developed, and this is key, far more reliable than competitor networks such as Electrify America. When I roll up to a supercharger, I don't have to wonder if the chargers are out of order. Every single supper charger I have stopped at was working, 100% of the time. That isn't true of the competing networks.

If you believe electric cars are the future, and I do believe that they are, then Teslas have a massive lead that the GM and Fords of the world won't easily catch up to. I attribute this to the fact that Tesla is 100% all in on electrification. That focus allows them to do what they do extremely well, whereas the legacy automakers are still focusing on traditional cars and making electric cars a side-hobby.

None of this justifies the company being worth a trillion. They're almost certainly over-valued. But to compare them to the traditional auto-makers is severely missing the point.
I own a model 3 performance and everything you said about it I agree with (except they do have superchargers that go out of service). And I believe that EVs are the future. That’s irrelevant - the internet was undoubtedly the future during the dot com bubble and has so vastly impacted every facet of our lives over the next 20 years - even more than anyone could have imagined. Yet a company like Cisco, poised to be the “shovel seller during a gold rush”, whose fundamentals were vastly superior then as compared to Tesla now, was a terrible investment going forward.

The comparison to Apple is misguided too. Tesla had a monopoly on EVs - key word “had”. A number of EVs have been released from other manufacturers since and Tesla is poised to get knocked off their pedestal by the likes of the 22’ Lucid Air with the first over 500 mile range EV (520 mi EPA tested) and Rivian being the first EV truck for sale - beating Tesla’s much delayed Cybertruck.

Tesla’s supercharger network also is losing its advantages - other charging competitors are moving into the space and growing rapidly and even Biden wants to subsidize a massive EV charging network across the country.

Maybe their biggest asset is their self-driving technology which they could license to others. But Tesla has over-promised and under-delivered on this feature SO many times, it has become almost laughable. And the government is also not so keen on them using their customers to effectively beta test self-driving changes - which is a potential risk.

Bottom line, it doesn’t matter how promising a company’s future is if you overpay for the privilege of owning the stock. Your returns can still be crappy even if Tesla lives up to everthing you expect.
Using a phrase like "bottom line" in a well written clearly thought out piece like this after a day like yesterday? Well, yesterday, every negative and bearish person was proven wrong.

When results are different than expected, perhaps folks should change their minds or at least just say they don't get it?
A stock can have ever increasing valuations for a number of years before it finally gets its wake up call. And even then, it can take a few years to wash out to its bottom. I’m talking about the long-term future returns of TSLA not predicting when the nuttiness will actually end in the near term. We won’t know whose wrong until maybe 5 to 10 years from now.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Yesterdaysnews »

I find it interesting that Tesla FSD uses only cameras and software, no radar or LIDAR…. That’s a different approach but I wonder if it really is possible.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by brad.clarkston »

burritoLover wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:01 pm
aqan wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:50 pm
burritoLover wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:18 pm
sjl333 wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:13 pm The logic of comparing Tesla to other Automakers is so flawed….
Enlighten us.
Open your eyes.
I see other traditional automakers and new EV-only automakers rapidly catching up. Their “full self driving” is wrought with issues and set backs. Numerous quality issues. And their non-automotive business is still unimpressive. Future prospects look muted with a lot more competition crowding their space.
Ford is catching up *if* the EV 150 delivers 100% on the construction and non-construction buyers next year.

The non-automakers in the market does not have a single vehicle in production and will not for another 5-10 years and the best ones may run out of cash next year.

The only other automakers with the money and basic starter battery tech is VW and Toyota. As much as I love my Camery and Toyota's quality repair shops they bet on the wrong horse (hybrid) and are a decade behind VW.

What the blind naysayers do not understand is Tesla is exactly the disruptive company that Mr. Ford started with the Model T. Also just like Mr. Ford, Mr. Musk warts and all has a vision that started long before he created the car company.

Most people forget that the Model T was not that good of a car, it lagged behind the EV's and ICE competitors at the start but Mr. Ford did not just build a car he created several new ways of manufacturing and reusing every little part he had.

Mr. Musk on the other hand built a battery company then bought three other battery companies. Built a manufacturing plant for the batteries and designed a car that before launching Tesla. And then surprisingly talked everyone into giving him money before building each car line, I still don't get that one.

The Tesla has so many massive feature jumps (battery, breaks, info-center, one sheet of glass front to back,etc) that all anyone can call fowl on is the auto-pilot. You never hear about anything but the auto-pilot it's becoming the "but think of the children" line.
70% AVGE | 20% FXNAX | 10% T-Bill/Muni
Soysauceonrice
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Soysauceonrice »

burritoLover wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 10:41 pm
Soysauceonrice wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:50 pm
burritoLover wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:18 pm
sjl333 wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:13 pm The logic of comparing Tesla to other Automakers is so flawed….
Enlighten us.
It's really simple; they aren't a traditional car company and the car isn't comparable to the traditional car most are used to. It sounds a bit cliché, but you just have to own one to understand. I was never a Tesla fanboy, but once I test drove one and now after owning a Model 3 for a year, I really can't see myself going back to a traditional internal combustion engine car. The acceleration is excellent, as is the idea of never visiting a gas station again (other than for a potty break on a long road-trips). The software in the Teslas, along with the OTA updates, are years ahead of any of the traditional car makers. Their charging infrastructure is significantly more developed, and this is key, far more reliable than competitor networks such as Electrify America. When I roll up to a supercharger, I don't have to wonder if the chargers are out of order. Every single supper charger I have stopped at was working, 100% of the time. That isn't true of the competing networks.

If you believe electric cars are the future, and I do believe that they are, then Teslas have a massive lead that the GM and Fords of the world won't easily catch up to. I attribute this to the fact that Tesla is 100% all in on electrification. That focus allows them to do what they do extremely well, whereas the legacy automakers are still focusing on traditional cars and making electric cars a side-hobby.

None of this justifies the company being worth a trillion. They're almost certainly over-valued. But to compare them to the traditional auto-makers is severely missing the point.
I own a model 3 performance and everything you said about it I agree with (except they do have superchargers that go out of service). And I believe that EVs are the future. That’s irrelevant - the internet was undoubtedly the future during the dot com bubble and has so vastly impacted every facet of our lives over the next 20 years - even more than anyone could have imagined. Yet a company like Cisco, poised to be the “shovel seller during a gold rush”, whose fundamentals were vastly superior then as compared to Tesla now, was a terrible investment going forward.

The comparison to Apple is misguided too. Tesla had a monopoly on EVs - key word “had”. A number of EVs have been released from other manufacturers since and Tesla is poised to get knocked off their pedestal by the likes of the 22’ Lucid Air with the first over 500 mile range EV (520 mi EPA tested) and Rivian being the first EV truck for sale - beating Tesla’s much delayed Cybertruck.

Tesla’s supercharger network also is losing its advantages - other charging competitors are moving into the space and growing rapidly and even Biden wants to subsidize a massive EV charging network across the country.

Maybe their biggest asset is their self-driving technology which they could license to others. But Tesla has over-promised and under-delivered on this feature SO many times, it has become almost laughable. And the government is also not so keen on them using their customers to effectively beta test self-driving changes - which is a potential risk.

Bottom line, it doesn’t matter how promising a company’s future is if you overpay for the privilege of owning the stock. Your returns can still be crappy even if Tesla lives up to everthing you expect.
There are a few trains of thoughts that I think deserve to be fleshed out and made clear. 1) Based on what we know about how to value a company, Tesla is certainly overvalued. I don't think anyone will have any issues with this statement. My main beef lies in how readily detractors are willing to dismiss the company because the stock is so detached from reality. Which brings me to point 2) Tesla can be both overvalued, and revolutionary at the same time.

In regards to their super-chargers going out of service, I know that they do go out of service. But the key point is that I never show up to a supper-charger to be surprised that it is out of service. Why is this ? Because the software of the Tesla tells me which supper chargers are down for service. It even tells me how busy each stop is, in real time, and allows me to make an informed decision on whether I want to stop at this charger, or skip it for a less packed charger down the road. I never roll up to a supercharger finding that it doesn't work, because if a supper charger doesn't work, my car tells me so and allows me to avoid it. If you were in a Mustang Mach-E for example, your car cannot tell you this information, because Ford does not control their charging network. There's that pesky tech advantage rearing its head again. For an example of a real world test that compares the networks, MKBHD did a great video on this. The differences in the experience is night and day. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXzuFprlyrw

You haven't really explained why the comparison to apple is misguided. Tesla can be Apple, or it can be Cisco. As others have pointed out, a car isn't a phone. But comments like those have the benefit of a decade and a half of foresight. If we were honest, how many of us in 2007 prophesized the seismic shift in our daily lives that the iphone and its smartphone progeny started ? You can say a car is just a car. But a phone in 2007 was also just a phone. If you asked the me of 2006, I would have no idea how my clam-shell nokia phone would revolutionize anything. All i used it for was to call my parents and text my college buddies. And just like Tesla, the iphone had its fair share of "me-too" clones (anyone remember the Blackberry Storm ?) and yet 15 years later, the iphone is still doing fine, despite the fact that it has hefty competition and that, from a features standpoint, an android phone can do everything an iphone can.

You say that it's laughable how often Tesla has overpromised and under-delivered on their FSD promises. This is a very valid critique. But what is also just as laughable to me, is how often people trot out the mantra of "just wait until the REAL car companies do electric cars!". I've heard that mantra for years, and the Tesla "Killers" have consistently underwhelmed. Don't get me wrong, I bought my Tesla because I am worried about the environment. I *want* Ford, Rivian, Lucid, GM, etc, to succeed, but the cars are either so new we can't really judge them (the Rivian Truck and the Lucid Air) or they have been disappointing (polestar). So yes, Elon has consistently under-delivered on his FSD hype, but so have the supposed Tesla killers. All have over-promised, and under-delivered.

It needs to be said again. The stock price doesn't make any sense. It is not worth 1 trillion today. But, based on what the company is doing now, I can certainly see it being worth that valuation some day. The ironic part is, the day I think the company is worth that trillion, the market might tell me it's worth 10.
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