TSLA: What Changed?

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Nathan Drake
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nathan Drake »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 2:32 pm
stocknoob4111 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 2:26 pm I remember when this was $200/share not too long ago and to think that it's now $6000/share is simply astonishing :shock:
Folks like Jason DeBolt retired on TSLA. They went all-in and paid off handsomely.
You can’t retire off TSLA
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Marseille07
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Marseille07 »

Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:41 pm You can’t retire off TSLA
Jason DeBolt reportedly has 14M all-in TSLA. He walked last year.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nathan Drake »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:56 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:41 pm You can’t retire off TSLA
Jason DeBolt reportedly has 14M all-in TSLA. He walked last year.
TSLA can go to zero over a thirty year period or lose 90% of its value

You can’t reliably retire off a single stock
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Marseille07
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Marseille07 »

Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:04 pm TSLA can go to zero over a thirty year period or lose 90% of its value

You can’t reliably retire off a single stock
We'll see. I wouldn't do what Jason did but just sharing there's someone who's done it.
Nathan Drake
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nathan Drake »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:07 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:04 pm TSLA can go to zero over a thirty year period or lose 90% of its value

You can’t reliably retire off a single stock
We'll see. I wouldn't do what Jason did but just sharing there's someone who's done it.

Does it during a bubble which does not tell us how he will do over the next 30 years while pulling out investments to pay for expenses

He may be fine but this strategy is unbelievably naive.
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Value Guy
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Value Guy »

https://www.thedrive.com/news/38129/elo ... e-are-they

1 million Tesla robotaxis were not on the road in 2020. Zero are on the road today.
Last edited by Value Guy on Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.
sjl333
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by sjl333 »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:56 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:41 pm You can’t retire off TSLA
Jason DeBolt reportedly has 14M all-in TSLA. He walked last year.
Jason has closer to 20 million now . But yes when he retired he had around 12 million. I’ve spoken to him personally online, he borrows on margin at 1% interest with Charles Schwab so he does not cash out any of his stocks lives off margin and let’s Tesla stock appreciate it can do it indefinitely . He has a 1-2 million dollar house in LA and is just living the retired life with his GF.

He expects Tesla to hit a 20-30 trillion market cap by 2030. He is a hyper bull and plans to hold long . There are others like Dave Lee emmet peppers and others who are sitting on 50-100 million dollars worth of Tesla stock.

I’m all in currently holding 1100 shares. I also got the model y performance last month and even bought my parents a model y as well . It’s definitely the future. Love the car . It’s more like a robot and drives itself on the freeways which is amazing. Can focus my mental energy on podcasts rather then being hyper focused on the road. I am continuallly adding to my position . I expect Tesla to hit 1500-2000 range this year barring any macro market collapse.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Marseille07 »

sjl333 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:00 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:56 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:41 pm You can’t retire off TSLA
Jason DeBolt reportedly has 14M all-in TSLA. He walked last year.
Jason has closer to 20 million now . But yes when he retired he had around 12 million. I’ve spoken to him personally online, he borrows on margin at 1% interest with Charles Schwab so he does not cash out any of his stocks lives off margin and let’s Tesla stock appreciate it can do it indefinitely . He has a 1-2 million dollar house in LA and is just living the retired life with his GF.

He expects Tesla to hit a 20-30 trillion market cap by 2030. He is a hyper bull and plans to hold long . There are others like Dave Lee emmet peppers and others who are sitting on 50-100 million dollars worth of Tesla stock.

I’m all in currently holding 1100 shares. I also got the model y performance last month and even bought my parents a model y as well . It’s definitely the future. Love the car . It’s more like a robot and drives itself on the freeways which is amazing. Can focus my mental energy on podcasts rather then being hyper focused on the road. I am continuallly adding to my position . I expect Tesla to hit 1500-2000 range this year barring any macro market collapse.
Whoa..20T~30T by 2030 is wild, when Apple just hit 3T and that was news today. I didn't know he hit 20M already, good for him though :beer
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nathan Drake »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:11 pm
sjl333 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:00 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:56 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:41 pm You can’t retire off TSLA
Jason DeBolt reportedly has 14M all-in TSLA. He walked last year.
Jason has closer to 20 million now . But yes when he retired he had around 12 million. I’ve spoken to him personally online, he borrows on margin at 1% interest with Charles Schwab so he does not cash out any of his stocks lives off margin and let’s Tesla stock appreciate it can do it indefinitely . He has a 1-2 million dollar house in LA and is just living the retired life with his GF.

He expects Tesla to hit a 20-30 trillion market cap by 2030. He is a hyper bull and plans to hold long . There are others like Dave Lee emmet peppers and others who are sitting on 50-100 million dollars worth of Tesla stock.

I’m all in currently holding 1100 shares. I also got the model y performance last month and even bought my parents a model y as well . It’s definitely the future. Love the car . It’s more like a robot and drives itself on the freeways which is amazing. Can focus my mental energy on podcasts rather then being hyper focused on the road. I am continuallly adding to my position . I expect Tesla to hit 1500-2000 range this year barring any macro market collapse.
Whoa..20T~30T by 2030 is wild, when Apple just hit 3T and that was news today. I didn't know he hit 20M already, good for him though :beer
And it's these kinds of delusional forecasts coupled with Hedge Funds being scared to short the stock that allow a manic bubble like TSLA to develop.
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Marseille07
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Marseille07 »

Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:12 pm And it's these kinds of delusional forecasts coupled with Hedge Funds being scared to short the stock that allow a manic bubble like TSLA to develop.
We're part of it too. Whenever we buy VOO or VTI, we're buying TSLA.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nathan Drake »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:16 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:12 pm And it's these kinds of delusional forecasts coupled with Hedge Funds being scared to short the stock that allow a manic bubble like TSLA to develop.
We're part of it too. Whenever we buy VOO or VTI, we're buying TSLA.
To a certain extent, but not nearly as much as individual speculators and momentum traders. TSLA is the most leveraged stock in the market and dominates all call options.

There's an obsessive zealotry with the stock/company that has bid it up to irrational levels. Companies that have their stock priced without any concern for valuations tend to not do well long-term.
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gougou
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by gougou »

sjl333 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:00 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:56 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:41 pm You can’t retire off TSLA
Jason DeBolt reportedly has 14M all-in TSLA. He walked last year.
Jason has closer to 20 million now . But yes when he retired he had around 12 million. I’ve spoken to him personally online, he borrows on margin at 1% interest with Charles Schwab so he does not cash out any of his stocks lives off margin and let’s Tesla stock appreciate it can do it indefinitely . He has a 1-2 million dollar house in LA and is just living the retired life with his GF.

He expects Tesla to hit a 20-30 trillion market cap by 2030. He is a hyper bull and plans to hold long . There are others like Dave Lee emmet peppers and others who are sitting on 50-100 million dollars worth of Tesla stock.

I’m all in currently holding 1100 shares. I also got the model y performance last month and even bought my parents a model y as well . It’s definitely the future. Love the car . It’s more like a robot and drives itself on the freeways which is amazing. Can focus my mental energy on podcasts rather then being hyper focused on the road. I am continuallly adding to my position . I expect Tesla to hit 1500-2000 range this year barring any macro market collapse.
$20T-$30T valuation? Total US corporate profit is about $2T/yr and grows slowly year over year. Is Tesla going to make all the profits in the US and leave nothing for everybody else?

It’s crazy to have $20M in a single stock. If he has any IRA/401k he can diversify those without paying any tax.
The sillier the market’s behavior, the greater the opportunity for the business like investor.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Firemenot »

TSLA stock is a religion for many. Maybe they’ll grow into their valuation someday. But it’s hard to figure Tesla’s market cap being 4x Toyota’s. That’s going to require darn near perfection.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by impatientInv »

Firemenot wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:32 pm TSLA stock is a religion for many. Maybe they’ll grow into their valuation someday. But it’s hard to figure Tesla’s market cap being 4x Toyota’s. That’s going to require darn near perfection.
Cisco had a market cap of ~$550B in 2000. It was supposed to rule the internet age. It was in a new field, with little competition to start. After 21 years and decent performance got it to a market cap of $267B.

Image

IMO Darn near perfection gets Tesla to $500B company in five years. BMW, Mercedes, Porsche, Audi and other traditional automakers are releasing 40+ new EV models in the next 3 years.

But market is right, many smarter people have lost 100s of thousands shorting it. So only thing I can say - collect your profits.
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Marseille07
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Marseille07 »

impatientInv wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:41 pm IMO Darn near perfection gets Tesla to $500B company in five years. BMW, Mercedes, Porsche, Audi and other traditional automakers are releasing 40+ new EV models in the next 3 years.
What am I missing? They're logging 1.2T today.
000
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by 000 »

Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:12 pm And it's these kinds of delusional forecasts coupled with Hedge Funds being scared to short the stock that allow a manic bubble like TSLA to develop.
It really is a sight to behold. :mrgreen:
impatientInv
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by impatientInv »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:42 pm
impatientInv wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:41 pm IMO Darn near perfection gets Tesla to $500B company in five years. BMW, Mercedes, Porsche, Audi and other traditional automakers are releasing 40+ new EV models in the next 3 years.
What am I missing? They're logging 1.2T today.
What was the market missing with CSCO is May 2000 when it had a market cap of $556B? Three years it dropped below $80B. Never crossed $270B market cap again. This is with all the share buybacks and after ~21 years. Ask anyone who lived through Y2K - Cisco was as big a darling as Tesla is today.

Anyway its the roaring 20s - like Elon called on twitter. This will go on for many more years.
000 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:43 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:12 pm And it's these kinds of delusional forecasts coupled with Hedge Funds being scared to short the stock that allow a manic bubble like TSLA to develop.
It really is a sight to behold. :mrgreen:
Main reason are the weekly/monthly expiring call volumes, much of which momentum hedge funds don't need to be disclose, This along with retail gamblers playing it heavily GME style.
Was $TSLA's run from $50 to $800 the Greatest Gamma Squeeze of All Time? Consider these call option volumes...
Sep 2019 - 1.5M calls (normal)
Dec 2019 - 8.6M calls (yuge)
Aug 2020 - 19.4M calls (wtf m8)
Dec 2020 - 36.3M calls (come on man!)
https://twitter.com/Ross_Report/status/ ... 870993411

Image
So here's the full monthly volume history since Sep 2019:
https://twitter.com/Ross_Report/status/ ... 0092044296
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Marseille07 »

impatientInv wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:48 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:42 pm
impatientInv wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:41 pm IMO Darn near perfection gets Tesla to $500B company in five years. BMW, Mercedes, Porsche, Audi and other traditional automakers are releasing 40+ new EV models in the next 3 years.
What am I missing? They're logging 1.2T today.
What was the market missing with CSCO is May 2000 when it had a market cap of $556B? Three years it dropped below $80B. Never crossed $270B market cap again. This is with all the share buybacks and after ~21 years. Ask anyone who lived through Y2K - Cisco was as big a darling as Tesla is today.

Anyway its the roaring 20s - like Elon called on twitter. This will go on for many more years.
000 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:43 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:12 pm And it's these kinds of delusional forecasts coupled with Hedge Funds being scared to short the stock that allow a manic bubble like TSLA to develop.
It really is a sight to behold. :mrgreen:
Main reason are the weekly/monthly expiring call volumes, much of which momentum hedge funds don't need to be disclose, This along with retail gamblers playing it heavily GME style.
Was $TSLA's run from $50 to $800 the Greatest Gamma Squeeze of All Time? Consider these call option volumes...
Sep 2019 - 1.5M calls (normal)
Dec 2019 - 8.6M calls (yuge)
Aug 2020 - 19.4M calls (wtf m8)
Dec 2020 - 36.3M calls (come on man!)
https://twitter.com/Ross_Report/status/ ... 870993411

Image
So here's the full monthly volume history since Sep 2019:
https://twitter.com/Ross_Report/status/ ... 0092044296
It's infuriating what the MMs are doing here. They don't give a crap how the stock moves or how high it goes, they're just writing ridiculous calls for pennies, for their own profit.

If they aren't there, retail can't buy calls like how they're doing today as the spread would be too wide.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nathan Drake »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:01 pm
impatientInv wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:48 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:42 pm
impatientInv wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:41 pm IMO Darn near perfection gets Tesla to $500B company in five years. BMW, Mercedes, Porsche, Audi and other traditional automakers are releasing 40+ new EV models in the next 3 years.
What am I missing? They're logging 1.2T today.
What was the market missing with CSCO is May 2000 when it had a market cap of $556B? Three years it dropped below $80B. Never crossed $270B market cap again. This is with all the share buybacks and after ~21 years. Ask anyone who lived through Y2K - Cisco was as big a darling as Tesla is today.

Anyway its the roaring 20s - like Elon called on twitter. This will go on for many more years.
000 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:43 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:12 pm And it's these kinds of delusional forecasts coupled with Hedge Funds being scared to short the stock that allow a manic bubble like TSLA to develop.
It really is a sight to behold. :mrgreen:
Main reason are the weekly/monthly expiring call volumes, much of which momentum hedge funds don't need to be disclose, This along with retail gamblers playing it heavily GME style.
Was $TSLA's run from $50 to $800 the Greatest Gamma Squeeze of All Time? Consider these call option volumes...
Sep 2019 - 1.5M calls (normal)
Dec 2019 - 8.6M calls (yuge)
Aug 2020 - 19.4M calls (wtf m8)
Dec 2020 - 36.3M calls (come on man!)
https://twitter.com/Ross_Report/status/ ... 870993411

Image
So here's the full monthly volume history since Sep 2019:
https://twitter.com/Ross_Report/status/ ... 0092044296
It's infuriating what the MMs are doing here. They don't give a crap how the stock moves or how high it goes, they're just writing ridiculous calls for pennies, for their own profit.

If they aren't there, retail can't buy calls like how they're doing today as the spread would be too wide.
Aren't TSLA calls expensive, not cheap?

Investors just saw what happened the past two years and are throwing money away at a lottery ticket expecting it to repeat. Which it could, until it doesn't. And then the house of cards crumbles.
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Marseille07
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Marseille07 »

Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:08 pm Aren't TSLA calls expensive, not cheap?

Investors just saw what happened the past two years and are throwing money away at a lottery ticket expecting it to repeat. Which it could, until it doesn't. And then the house of cards crumbles.
Depends on how you look at them I guess. 20th Jan 2023 $2000 Call going for around $116 right now. It'd be cheap if TSLA hits $3000 by then.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Weathering »

Maybe 12/09/21 has been delayed to 01/09/22, so the deliveries would be reported first.
Split...
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Apathizer »

Firemenot wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:32 pm TSLA stock is a religion for many. Maybe they’ll grow into their valuation someday. But it’s hard to figure Tesla’s market cap being 4x Toyota’s. That’s going to require darn near perfection.
I made a similar comment in another thread. Toyota is a more well-established and diversified company. They produce ICE, hybrid, and later this year EVs. They have a better reliability track-record than TSLA so far.

The EV industry is becoming increasingly competitive. With more companies developing EVs, both domestically and globally, betting on one company is extremely risky. Who knows? Maybe Tesla will eventually become more successful than Toyota. They might also go the way of Delorean. Or something in between. Their share-price seems overvalued to me, but we'll see...
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Yesterdaysnews »

EV stocks are a massive bubble. I’ll steer clear.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Marseille07 »

Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:21 pm To a certain extent, but not nearly as much as individual speculators and momentum traders. TSLA is the most leveraged stock in the market and dominates all call options.

There's an obsessive zealotry with the stock/company that has bid it up to irrational levels. Companies that have their stock priced without any concern for valuations tend to not do well long-term.
Actually we're a big TSLA holder: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/tsla/holders

Vanguard, Blackrock etc etc are buying TSLA on behalf of us passive investors. You can also see a list of mutual funds holding TSLA as well.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nathan Drake »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 12:00 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:21 pm To a certain extent, but not nearly as much as individual speculators and momentum traders. TSLA is the most leveraged stock in the market and dominates all call options.

There's an obsessive zealotry with the stock/company that has bid it up to irrational levels. Companies that have their stock priced without any concern for valuations tend to not do well long-term.
Actually we're a big TSLA holder: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/tsla/holders

Vanguard, Blackrock etc etc are buying TSLA on behalf of us passive investors. You can also see a list of mutual funds holding TSLA as well.
Most pricing action is not determined by index fund inflows
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Marseille07 »

Nathan Drake wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 12:08 am Most pricing action is not determined by index fund inflows
We don't know the exact impact. But TSLA would have been cheaper than a 1.2T market cap without passive investors.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by finite_difference »

Apathizer wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:37 pm
Firemenot wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:32 pm TSLA stock is a religion for many. Maybe they’ll grow into their valuation someday. But it’s hard to figure Tesla’s market cap being 4x Toyota’s. That’s going to require darn near perfection.
I made a similar comment in another thread. Toyota is a more well-established and diversified company. They produce ICE, hybrid, and later this year EVs. They have a better reliability track-record than TSLA so far.

The EV industry is becoming increasingly competitive. With more companies developing EVs, both domestically and globally, betting on one company is extremely risky. Who knows? Maybe Tesla will eventually become more successful than Toyota. They might also go the way of Delorean. Or something in between. Their share-price seems overvalued to me, but we'll see...
Counter-point: Toyota is being left behind due to its focus on hybrid and fuel cell technology. ICE is dead weight. Fuel cells seem like potentially dead weight too. Automakers that are 100% BEV can be leaner and meaner.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/25/clim ... rogen.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/27/busi ... -cars.html
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Apathizer »

finite_difference wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 12:45 am
Apathizer wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:37 pm
Firemenot wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:32 pm TSLA stock is a religion for many. Maybe they’ll grow into their valuation someday. But it’s hard to figure Tesla’s market cap being 4x Toyota’s. That’s going to require darn near perfection.
I made a similar comment in another thread. Toyota is a more well-established and diversified company. They produce ICE, hybrid, and later this year EVs. They have a better reliability track-record than TSLA so far.

The EV industry is becoming increasingly competitive. With more companies developing EVs, both domestically and globally, betting on one company is extremely risky. Who knows? Maybe Tesla will eventually become more successful than Toyota. They might also go the way of Delorean. Or something in between. Their share-price seems overvalued to me, but we'll see...
Counter-point: Toyota is being left behind due to its focus on hybrid and fuel cell technology. ICE is dead weight. Fuel cells seem like potentially dead weight too. Automakers that are 100% BEV can be leaner and meaner.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/25/clim ... rogen.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/27/busi ... -cars.html
We'll see, though there are still logistic concerns with EVs. All the mining logistics for battery elements still need to be figured out for one thing. I"m not saying it will or won't be, but who there are still more unknowns that knowns with how EV technology will develop.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Stef »

So will Tesla be the first company to reach 10T market cap?
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by firebirdparts »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:42 pm What am I missing? They're logging 1.2T today.
Cars are a cruel business. Too comptetitive. It was energy that gave us the laws which force maintenance of what turned out to be cutthroat competition, though. Everybody says "oh, they're an energy company". But unfortunately they're in it on the competitive side.

Anyway, very few companies ever existed who produced an automobile and didn't go through a shareholder wipeout.

Now, a true believer will say "oh, you just don't appreciate the huge technological advantage of Belchfire Motors" and that's true. I don't.

You can never point to the value of the tulip bulbs and say "this proves...[whatever]" or at least I wouldn't. I'm not going to defend market efficiency for a company that size with a 400 P/E ratio.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nysoz »

smalliebigs wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 6:53 pm I don't know how much kool-aid you're drinking, but Tesla does not make 5-10x the profit margin compared to other OEMs. EVs currently are still more expensive to make than ICE vehicles. Traditional OEMs still have massive economies of scale and manufacturing experience. That "old product" is still >95% of the US market share. Also, there are a lot of emissions and fuel economy policies that influence OEM decisions, not because "Tesla is cool, let's be like them".
I was just explaining why Tesla may be valued in a way that may be justified. Lets go through the q3 numbers together.

Tesla delivered 241k vehicles and adjusted EBITDA was $3.2B.
https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/TWPK ... ate.pdf%22

Ford delivered 1M vehicles and adjusted EBITDA was $3B.
https://s23.q4cdn.com/799033206/files/d ... elease.pdf

VW delivered 1.97M vehicles and adjusted EBITDA was $3B.
https://www.volkswagenag.com/presence/i ... 2021_e.pdf

Use whatever metric you want, but yes, Tesla does make much more per car than the others. Not sure if it's the 5-10x that I threw out there as an example but it's higher.

Yes EVs are more expensive to make than ICE if you're not making a lot of them. Like you said, economies of scale and Tesla is the only one that's really doing it with EVs. The other OEMs are making limited numbers due to battery/chip constraints. I'd venture a guess that OEMs are losing money on each EV they make and subsidizing it with their ICE sales.

Even the Stellantis CEO agrees with you.
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos- ... 021-12-01/

Yes the 'old product' is still a high percentage of market share. You can believe in an S curve adoption of new technology if you want, but sooner or later EVs will be the majority of transport. As it does, all the old factories and manufacturing slowly turns from assets into liabilities. Sure you can repurpose ICE plants into EV plants, but that costs time and money as well.
Nysoz
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nysoz »

Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:41 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 2:32 pm
stocknoob4111 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 2:26 pm I remember when this was $200/share not too long ago and to think that it's now $6000/share is simply astonishing :shock:
Folks like Jason DeBolt retired on TSLA. They went all-in and paid off handsomely.
You can’t retire off TSLA
Sure you can. In a random google, he has around 15000 shares. That allows you to write 150 covered call options. Premiums are inflated right now because of volatility but you can easily and safely get $100-200 per contract a week.

If you sell 150 of them at $150 each, that's $22500 a week or $1.17M a year.
impatientInv
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by impatientInv »

Nysoz wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:17 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:41 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 2:32 pm
stocknoob4111 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 2:26 pm I remember when this was $200/share not too long ago and to think that it's now $6000/share is simply astonishing :shock:
Folks like Jason DeBolt retired on TSLA. They went all-in and paid off handsomely.
You can’t retire off TSLA
Sure you can. In a random google, he has around 15000 shares. That allows you to write 150 covered call options. Premiums are inflated right now because of volatility but you can easily and safely get $100-200 per contract a week.

If you sell 150 of them at $150 each, that's $22500 a week or $1.17M a year.
If you have 15k shares that's $16M+ why bother with risk? Diversify and do what you like than doest involve gambling away $16M
No individual stocks.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nathan Drake »

Nysoz wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:17 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:41 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 2:32 pm
stocknoob4111 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 2:26 pm I remember when this was $200/share not too long ago and to think that it's now $6000/share is simply astonishing :shock:
Folks like Jason DeBolt retired on TSLA. They went all-in and paid off handsomely.
You can’t retire off TSLA
Sure you can. In a random google, he has around 15000 shares. That allows you to write 150 covered call options. Premiums are inflated right now because of volatility but you can easily and safely get $100-200 per contract a week.

If you sell 150 of them at $150 each, that's $22500 a week or $1.17M a year.
He could, but he’s not. And that’s only 1 year. What about the next 30 after a 90% drop in share price?
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smalliebigs
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by smalliebigs »

Is it going to drop 90 %? Who knows!
Nysoz
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nysoz »

People have different risk tolerance and conviction in companies. It's fine to diversify and preserve wealth. I think it's smart to do once you've hit whatever number you need and that's what I'm doing slowly in my own way. There's many ways to start to diversify or make money and it's why personal finance is personal.

Without conviction in companies, most people would sell to diversify after a 2x gain, let alone 10-1000x (or hold through 50% drawdowns). You have to be able to take the risk and have the conviction to hold through the volatility in order to build massive wealth in a short period of time.

He's confident that the share price will be able to sustain his lifestyle by borrowing on margin I guess.

I'm confident that I can make money/fund my retirement by holding my position while selling options and diversifying.

Most people here will be confident in their bogleheads portfolio with their asset allocation appropriate for their risk tolerance and that's fine too. If anyone is confident that TSLA will implode at any given time or near future, they're more than able to make their bet against TSLA by buying puts, shorting the stock or anything else. It hasn't gone well for people for years though.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nathan Drake »

Nysoz wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:58 am People have different risk tolerance and conviction in companies. It's fine to diversify and preserve wealth. I think it's smart to do once you've hit whatever number you need and that's what I'm doing slowly in my own way. There's many ways to start to diversify or make money and it's why personal finance is personal.

Without conviction in companies, most people would sell to diversify after a 2x gain, let alone 10-1000x (or hold through 50% drawdowns). You have to be able to take the risk and have the conviction to hold through the volatility in order to build massive wealth in a short period of time.

He's confident that the share price will be able to sustain his lifestyle by borrowing on margin I guess.

I'm confident that I can make money/fund my retirement by holding my position while selling options and diversifying.

Most people here will be confident in their bogleheads portfolio with their asset allocation appropriate for their risk tolerance and that's fine too. If anyone is confident that TSLA will implode at any given time or near future, they're more than able to make their bet against TSLA by buying puts, shorting the stock or anything else. It hasn't gone well for people for years though.
Are you also 100% TSLA or something?

Single stock idiosyncratic risk is not compensated risk. You can take the conviction to zero.

It is not a wise strategy and not an “all roads lead to Dublin my strategy works for me” situation.

It is gambling
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Marseille07
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Marseille07 »

Nysoz wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:58 am Most people here will be confident in their bogleheads portfolio with their asset allocation appropriate for their risk tolerance and that's fine too. If anyone is confident that TSLA will implode at any given time or near future, they're more than able to make their bet against TSLA by buying puts, shorting the stock or anything else. It hasn't gone well for people for years though.
Realistically, if one doesn't like TSLA then they should just stay away rather than taking a short position.

That said, passive investors can't really avoid TSLA as it is part of our portfolio via S&P500.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nysoz »

I'm around 75% TSLA now. I bought the car in June 2019, thought it was amazing and bought my TSLA shares then with a small portion of my portfolio. I also picked up some leaps around May 2020. During the first parabolic run, I sold enough to get my cost basis out, so now everything has been house money.

I've been selling TSLA options on my shares/leaps for the past 2 years, taking that premium and buying index funds with it to diversify. Once my index position catches up to my TSLA position I'll re-evaluate if I want to add more to TSLA at that time or not.

There's definitely a lot of risk in what I'm doing and it's not for everyone but wouldn't go as far as to call it gambling. Since I mainly focus on selling options, I sell them to the gamblers acting as the house. It's overall high risk, high reward compared to the average risk/reward of an index fund.

But I do agree if you don't like TSLA you don't have to have any part of it other than what's weighted in an index fund. However, I feel like if you have strong conviction about any trade or company (if it's within your risk tolerance by going long or short), it's worth a small bet of play money which could turn out to be substantial.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nathan Drake »

Nysoz wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 12:40 pm I'm around 75% TSLA now. I bought the car in June 2019, thought it was amazing and bought my TSLA shares then with a small portion of my portfolio. I also picked up some leaps around May 2020. During the first parabolic run, I sold enough to get my cost basis out, so now everything has been house money.

I've been selling TSLA options on my shares/leaps for the past 2 years, taking that premium and buying index funds with it to diversify. Once my index position catches up to my TSLA position I'll re-evaluate if I want to add more to TSLA at that time or not.

There's definitely a lot of risk in what I'm doing and it's not for everyone but wouldn't go as far as to call it gambling. Since I mainly focus on selling options, I sell them to the gamblers acting as the house. It's overall high risk, high reward compared to the average risk/reward of an index fund.

But I do agree if you don't like TSLA you don't have to have any part of it other than what's weighted in an index fund. However, I feel like if you have strong conviction about any trade or company (if it's within your risk tolerance by going long or short), it's worth a small bet of play money which could turn out to be substantial.
It’s gambling, regardless of selling options. It’s all tied up in a single stock.

I like TSLA, I don’t like the stock

Don’t pretend it’s anything more than a lottery pick
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Marseille07
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Marseille07 »

Nathan Drake wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 12:52 pm It’s gambling, regardless of selling options. It’s all tied up in a single stock.

I like TSLA, I don’t like the stock

Don’t pretend it’s anything more than a lottery pick
The above poster said 75% TSLA, which by definition is not tied up in a single stock.
impatientInv
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by impatientInv »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 12:57 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 12:52 pm It’s gambling, regardless of selling options. It’s all tied up in a single stock.

I like TSLA, I don’t like the stock

Don’t pretend it’s anything more than a lottery pick
The above poster said 75% TSLA, which by definition is not tied up in a single stock.
IMO more than 10% in any single stock is gambling. (exceptions for founders etc) If one has enough saved for retirement in a "3 fund" type portfolio, they can do whatever they want with the rest.

TSLA is a Tech, meme, auto, crypto, cult stock rolled into one - On steroids! And IMO 90% of valuation depends on one person Elon. Without him, even if Tesla is hugely successful, it is difficult to justify current valuation even after 10 years.
No individual stocks.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Marseille07 »

impatientInv wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 1:42 pm IMO more than 10% in any single stock is gambling. (exceptions for founders etc) If one has enough saved for retirement in a "3 fund" type portfolio, they can do whatever they want with the rest.

TSLA is a Tech, meme, auto, crypto, cult stock rolled into one - On steroids! And IMO 90% of valuation depends on one person Elon. Without him, even if Tesla is hugely successful, it is difficult to justify current valuation even after 10 years.
The stock market has an element of gambling. Now, some stocks are riskier than others.

I don't own any TSLA outside of what's included via indexing.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by GP813 »

impatientInv wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 1:42 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 12:57 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 12:52 pm It’s gambling, regardless of selling options. It’s all tied up in a single stock.

I like TSLA, I don’t like the stock

Don’t pretend it’s anything more than a lottery pick
The above poster said 75% TSLA, which by definition is not tied up in a single stock.
IMO more than 10% in any single stock is gambling. (exceptions for founders etc) If one has enough saved for retirement in a "3 fund" type portfolio, they can do whatever they want with the rest.

TSLA is a Tech, meme, auto, crypto, cult stock rolled into one - On steroids! And IMO 90% of valuation depends on one person Elon. Without him, even if Tesla is hugely successful, it is difficult to justify current valuation even after 10 years.
I'm not convinced Tesla wouldn't be a better run company without Musk at this point. Look at what Tim Cook did taking over Apple from Steve Jobs and going from a $350 billion market cap to $3 trillion. Tesla already has a loyal following and roadmap of products that a competent manager who keeps quiet, is a logistical wizard, and just gets to work could actually be better for Tesla shareholders than whatever Elon Musk seems to be doing these days.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nysoz »

Nathan Drake wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 12:52 pm It’s gambling, regardless of selling options. It’s all tied up in a single stock.

I like TSLA, I don’t like the stock

Don’t pretend it’s anything more than a lottery pick
It's highly concentrated calculated risk. A lottery pick would be more of a penny/biotech stock hoping for some approval for some medication.

We may have differing definitions of gambling. Concentration in a single stock may be gambling to some, but it's just a spectrum of risk in the stock market. Gambling infers placing a bet on a random occurrence or event. Investing in a risky single stock position is high risk.

It's very richly priced and there's a lot of models out there that explain how it's potentially valued. Some people agree with that and others don't. The large differing opinions have made it into a battleground for the options market and therefore makes it very volatile and manipulated. This also makes it very profitable to buy or sell TSLA options. This world and risk isn't for everyone and it's perfectly acceptable to avoid it altogether.

Ultimately the short term share price is impacted by all these factors, the long term will be determined by fundamentals.

As for the company with or without Elon, I'm sure the share price would take a short term hit due to sentiment but the blueprint is laid out for continued growth through 2025 at least. They just have to continue to execute.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by 4nursebee »

Someone used the phrase idiosyncratic risk to define concentrated investing in TSLA. I had to look it up.

A different kind of risk, one described as opposite the above, is systemic risk.

Is there a fancy word to describe the concentrated idiosyncratic potential in single stock investing? Or maybe the idiosyncratic success that TSLA investors have had, even over many years?

Is there a fancy way to describe the absolute total error of the BH hive mind as it comes to TSLA over the years?
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JoMoney
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by JoMoney »

4nursebee wrote: Wed Jan 05, 2022 5:58 am Someone used the phrase idiosyncratic risk to define concentrated investing in TSLA. I had to look it up.

A different kind of risk, one described as opposite the above, is systemic risk.

Is there a fancy word to describe the concentrated idiosyncratic potential in single stock investing? Or maybe the idiosyncratic success that TSLA investors have had, even over many years?

Is there a fancy way to describe the absolute total error of the BH hive mind as it comes to TSLA over the years?
J.P. Morgan : THE AGONY & THE ECSTASY (The risks and rewards of a concentrated stock position 2021 ed.)
https://assets.jpmprivatebank.com/conte ... y-2021.pdf
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by finingo »

4nursebee wrote: Wed Jan 05, 2022 5:58 am Someone used the phrase idiosyncratic risk to define concentrated investing in TSLA. I had to look it up.

A different kind of risk, one described as opposite the above, is systemic risk.

Is there a fancy word to describe the concentrated idiosyncratic potential in single stock investing? Or maybe the idiosyncratic success that TSLA investors have had, even over many years?

Is there a fancy way to describe the absolute total error of the BH hive mind as it comes to TSLA over the years?
Most Boglehead’s hold VTSAX, and our portfolios have benefited from TSLA. Far from total error. You’re free to apply selection bias to justify ignoring empirical data showing idiosyncratic risk has not been rewarded. Good luck on your gamble. Your odds of beating a market portfolio long term are low.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by 4nursebee »

finingo wrote: Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:35 am
4nursebee wrote: Wed Jan 05, 2022 5:58 am Someone used the phrase idiosyncratic risk to define concentrated investing in TSLA. I had to look it up.

A different kind of risk, one described as opposite the above, is systemic risk.

Is there a fancy word to describe the concentrated idiosyncratic potential in single stock investing? Or maybe the idiosyncratic success that TSLA investors have had, even over many years?

Is there a fancy way to describe the absolute total error of the BH hive mind as it comes to TSLA over the years?
Most Boglehead’s hold VTSAX, and our portfolios have benefited from TSLA. Far from total error. You’re free to apply selection bias to justify ignoring empirical data showing idiosyncratic risk has not been rewarded. Good luck on your gamble. Your odds of beating a market portfolio long term are low.

Yes, that has been the mantra all along. And most if not all people investing in low cost index funds have underperformed those that have long term been idiosyncratically concentrated in TSLA.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by 4nursebee »

JoMoney wrote: Wed Jan 05, 2022 6:11 am
4nursebee wrote: Wed Jan 05, 2022 5:58 am Someone used the phrase idiosyncratic risk to define concentrated investing in TSLA. I had to look it up.

A different kind of risk, one described as opposite the above, is systemic risk.

Is there a fancy word to describe the concentrated idiosyncratic potential in single stock investing? Or maybe the idiosyncratic success that TSLA investors have had, even over many years?

Is there a fancy way to describe the absolute total error of the BH hive mind as it comes to TSLA over the years?
J.P. Morgan : THE AGONY & THE ECSTASY (The risks and rewards of a concentrated stock position 2021 ed.)
https://assets.jpmprivatebank.com/conte ... y-2021.pdf
Your reply seems to mainly be an opinion piece, or someone else's opinion piece, perhaps to support your beliefs. I do not see it answering my questions, though they can't really be answered.

And ironic to quote a financial services firm to support a DIY BH approach.
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