International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
I gotta say, I am tempted to bump my ex-U.S. allocation from 30% to 35-40% of equities.
I've held 30% as long as I've been investing. I chose 30% because that is what many Bogleheads recommended at the time. At that time, Vanguard and others were all around 20%, if I recall. Now they're all 35-40%.
If buying high is the worst thing an investor can do, then logically speaking, if I sell some U.S. to buy international and move to 35-40% ex-U.S., am I doing any harm? Likely not.
Still hard to pull the trigger on a change, though. I could compromise and direct new contributions to international until I'm there. If levels stayed the same as they are now, it would take me about 15 months of contributing only to ex-U.S. to get to 35%.
I've held 30% as long as I've been investing. I chose 30% because that is what many Bogleheads recommended at the time. At that time, Vanguard and others were all around 20%, if I recall. Now they're all 35-40%.
If buying high is the worst thing an investor can do, then logically speaking, if I sell some U.S. to buy international and move to 35-40% ex-U.S., am I doing any harm? Likely not.
Still hard to pull the trigger on a change, though. I could compromise and direct new contributions to international until I'm there. If levels stayed the same as they are now, it would take me about 15 months of contributing only to ex-U.S. to get to 35%.
Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
I hope you’re right. We doubled our international allocation (from 12% to 25%) from August to November of 2020.
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
I went VTWAX last year, and no longer worry about it.
Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
Seems like the bright side of diversification, as it beats putting everything in the "loser".
Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
I also enjoy the OP's sense of humour.
Want this to be right so we have more of it next year
Want this to be right so we have more of it next year
Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
touche'
Only invest in winners. If an asset class is going to lose, don't invest in it!
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
I will add to this prediction. International will outperform US in 2021 and there will be massive inflows into international funds towards the end up the year. Lots of people increasing their international allocations. Then the US will outperform for the next 5 years
Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
I can buy a "VTSAX and Chill" sweatshirt and t-shirt on Amazon. There isn't a "VTWAX and Chill" version available yet, but I positioned my portfolio in anticipation anyway.
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
VT(WAX) and chill.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
This also holds for a 99% drop in US and only a 98% in International
Time to go 100% cash - the only question is where to store it and what denominations
Time to go 100% cash - the only question is where to store it and what denominations
G.E. Box "All models are wrong, but some are useful."
Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
I hope you're right. For the stock portion of my portfolio, I'm currently 30/70 U.S./int'l (not a change I made based on this thread, just to be clear).
Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
Indeed; works for me!
Global stocks, US bonds, and time.
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
2.75% lead at the open of the third trading day. OP off to a pretty solid start on this one.
VTWAX and chill
Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
Not to go off track here, but I prefer to remain stateside when it comes to bonds.
Global stocks, US bonds, and time.
Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
Thank you for bringing the existence of these t-shirts to my attention
I'm rooting for you OP.
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
I allocate by market cap. International allocation has been creeping downwards the last decade, but that's fine...I don't tilt.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Tue Jan 05, 2021 2:51 pm I gotta say, I am tempted to bump my ex-U.S. allocation from 30% to 35-40% of equities.
I've held 30% as long as I've been investing. I chose 30% because that is what many Bogleheads recommended at the time. At that time, Vanguard and others were all around 20%, if I recall. Now they're all 35-40%.
If buying high is the worst thing an investor can do, then logically speaking, if I sell some U.S. to buy international and move to 35-40% ex-U.S., am I doing any harm? Likely not.
Still hard to pull the trigger on a change, though. I could compromise and direct new contributions to international until I'm there. If levels stayed the same as they are now, it would take me about 15 months of contributing only to ex-U.S. to get to 35%.
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
I made the same prediction in the Soaring thread - VXUS will outperform VTI in 2021.
I am 50% Intl Stocks. My money is where my mouth is.
I am 50% Intl Stocks. My money is where my mouth is.
USStks:IntlStks:Bonds::1:1:1, Tilts US Mid/SmallCap and EM.
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
I would buy this T-Shirt.
USStks:IntlStks:Bonds::1:1:1, Tilts US Mid/SmallCap and EM.
Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
Looks like it might come down to the wire. International behind, but within striking distance. Are we doubling down?
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
Still more than half the year to go. A lot can change. But they've basically been about even so far. Greater International recovery from Covid should help push international a bit since US was a bit ahead.
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
Down roughly 16-10 at halftime... Can International still pull off a heroic comeback!? Got any secret weapons on the bench or trick plays we don't know about yet?
VTWAX and chill
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
Pretty much every piece of economic news out of China has been underwhelming this year. Seems like every country is still just following the US's lead. When everyone's most bullish on Europe, I think it's fair to expect the US to win another year... again.bogledogle87 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 6:43 am Down roughly 16-10 at halftime... Can International still pull off a heroic comeback!? Got any secret weapons on the bench or trick plays we don't know about yet?
"I am better off than he is – for he knows nothing and thinks that he knows. I neither know nor think that I know." - Socrates. "Nobody knows nothing." - Jack Bogle
Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
As they say in sports, “There’s always next year ……..”whereskyle wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 6:55 am When everyone's most bullish on Europe, I think it's fair to expect the US to win another year... again.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
As someone who holds around 20% international, I'm wondering > the US has traditionally outperfromed International. I've googled a bit on this, but not sure what the prevailing theory is as to why. Is it just that we have traditionally been the biggest market and US companies have easier access to that market? And while China is catching up, it still is typically more closed and less open?
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
Looks like there is!
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
As someone who is 60/40 US/ex-US, I'm better off if US has higher returns, but ok either way. Which asset class wins this year or this decade isn't very important to me.
Got to say the whole horse race metaphor for asset classes you have chosen to invest in is probably bad for investor mentality. Feeds into FOMO, makes it harder to stay the course.
Got to say the whole horse race metaphor for asset classes you have chosen to invest in is probably bad for investor mentality. Feeds into FOMO, makes it harder to stay the course.
Last edited by Da5id on Fri Jul 02, 2021 7:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
It’s interesting that you are just like ex us… I mean come in prognosticator of prognosticator why not pick the individual nation… while your at it pick the stock?InvestorNewb wrote: ↑Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:56 pm Today is the first trading day of the year.
I have a prediction that the international stock market will outperform the US stock market in 2021.
This thread will be revisited on 12/31/2021 to show the genius that I am.
Keep in mind that I've been correct before and I will be correct again.
S&p500 all the way.
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
Right now, I think it's as simple as this: Apple, Amazon, Alphabet (Google), and Facebook, companies that have recently powered the US's outperformance, are incredibly well-managed companies providing state of the art goods and services that people everywhere want. Each of these companies benefits immensely from robust IP protections that are secured and enforced by US laws and regulations.sureshoe wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 7:14 am As someone who holds around 20% international, I'm wondering > the US has traditionally outperfromed International. I've googled a bit on this, but not sure what the prevailing theory is as to why. Is it just that we have traditionally been the biggest market and US companies have easier access to that market? And while China is catching up, it still is typically more closed and less open?
I think the answer is company-specific, although I agree with Buffett that you shouldn't bet against the US. We can and do argue endlessly about whether the US's political and or legal system benefits US companies especially. I think it is absolutely clear that American global corporate power is a salient political issue on the minds of pretty much everyone in the US political apparatus. But this is arguably the case in most other countries as well.
"I am better off than he is – for he knows nothing and thinks that he knows. I neither know nor think that I know." - Socrates. "Nobody knows nothing." - Jack Bogle
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
The paradox here is that presumably every investor already knows this. Has this already been or yet-to-be priced in to the market - or somehow both? Do these observations only explain an impressive recent performance, yet still set the stage for outperformance to persist?whereskyle wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 7:23 am Right now, I think it's as simple as this: Apple, Amazon, Alphabet (Google), and Facebook, companies that have recently powered the US's outperformance, are incredibly well-managed companies providing state of the art goods and services that people everywhere want. Each of these companies benefits immensely from robust IP protections that are secured and enforced by US laws and regulations.
For these companies to continue their run, they must surprise to the upside by exceeding the already lofty expectations priced in today. I have my doubts that there is a lot of steam left there - but have been wrong before. Momentum is extremely powerful - until suddenly it's not.
VTWAX and chill
Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
I'm correct in saying that the US has been outperforming International for a very long time... if not forever, right? So it's not just these stocks either.bogledogle87 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 8:00 amThe paradox here is that presumably every investor already knows this. Has this already been or yet-to-be priced in to the market - or somehow both? Do these observations only explain an impressive recent performance, yet still set the stage for outperformance to persist?whereskyle wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 7:23 am Right now, I think it's as simple as this: Apple, Amazon, Alphabet (Google), and Facebook, companies that have recently powered the US's outperformance, are incredibly well-managed companies providing state of the art goods and services that people everywhere want. Each of these companies benefits immensely from robust IP protections that are secured and enforced by US laws and regulations.
For these companies to continue their run, they must surprise to the upside by exceeding the already lofty expectations priced in today. I have my doubts that there is a lot of steam left there - but have been wrong before. Momentum is extremely powerful - until suddenly it's not.
It feels there is some material advantage that should be apparent, but apparently is not.
Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
Momentum can be while moving up or down, often even with more force when heading down. Trend traders trade with the trend whichever way it's going, they run into problems in choppy markets, getting whip-sawed repeatedly when there is no real force moving in either direction.bogledogle87 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 8:00 am... Momentum is extremely powerful - until suddenly it's not.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
I with you 100% on both points.
In order to justify a prediction of continued & prolonged future outperformance, one would need to be able to articulate specific factors that are present, or will be present, that are not priced into the market today. They would need to know exactly why they are not yet priced in. They would be remiss to only reference backward-looking observations to explain previous performance to extrapolate forward. They would logically have to present some information that is either not yet known or believed by the average aggregate global investor, currently. This information should likely not be observations that everyone already agrees with, because if they were, they would be part of today's price. This the paradox.
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
I've posited this question in other threads, and I've yet to see a satisfying answer, though I'm open to one. Suppose a country called Entrepreneurland has an inherent entrepreneurial advantage over the weighted average of the rest of the global market. Whatever the right theoretical level of all the variables for successful startups to establish and become highly profitable - social, political, availability of capital, access to talent, etc - suppose that Enterpreneurland has them all in better proportions than the rest of the global market. Such that future highly profitable startups/corporations, which don't exist yet and so aren't investable yet, are more likely to be established in Entrepreneurland. Would one not expect Entrepreneurland to outperform the global market index in the future, based on those future highly profitable companies that don't exist yet and so aren't investible yet in the current index?bogledogle87 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 9:22 amI with you 100% on both points.
In order to justify a prediction of continued & prolonged future outperformance, one would need to be able to articulate specific factors that are present, or will be present, that are not priced into the market today. They would need to know exactly why they are not yet priced in. They would be remiss to only reference backward-looking observations to explain previous performance to extrapolate forward. They would logically have to present some information that is either not yet known or believed by the average aggregate global investor, currently. This information should likely not be observations that everyone already agrees with, because if they were, they would be part of today's price. This the paradox.
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
You've framed this question is a very interesting way, especially relative to the firepower of companies they do not exist yet. I can't answer this hypothetical question with any level of confidence.UpsetRaptor wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 9:43 am I've posited this question in other threads, and I've yet to see a satisfying answer, though I'm open to one. Suppose a country called Entrepreneurland has an inherent entrepreneurial advantage over the weighted average of the rest of the global market. Whatever the right theoretical level of all the variables for successful startups to establish and become highly profitable - social, political, availability of capital, access to talent, etc - suppose that Enterpreneurland has them all in better proportions than the rest of the global market. Such that future highly profitable startups/corporations, which don't exist yet and so aren't investable yet, are more likely to be established in Entrepreneurland. Would one not expect Entrepreneurland to outperform the global market index in the future, based on those future highly profitable companies that don't exist yet and so aren't investible yet in the current index?
My only comment is that it seems the most likely companies that do not yet exist would be considered micro-cap value as they start up and sort out their growing pains and work their way up in cap size. It seems that pretty much ALL of the weight US outperformance has been carried by mega-cap growth, particularly in the technology sector. The rest of the market is pretty similar to the entire global market. The S&P 500 would presumably exclude the companies in your hypothetical, yet has still been the main driver of the performance gap for a while. I'm just not sure how much steam those start-ups can really provide at their market weight until they become large caps themselves.
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
And yet the historical record indicates that it’s not the hot growth stocks or new companies in aggregate that have the best returns; it’s the existing companies that are smaller, have gone through bad times and are presently unloved and undervalued. These stocks have inherently more risk and investors have a behavioral bias against them because they are boring companies nobody knows about compared to the glamorous tech stocks.bogledogle87 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 11:50 amYou've framed this question is a very interesting way, especially relative to the firepower of companies they do not exist yet. I can't answer this hypothetical question with any level of confidence.UpsetRaptor wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 9:43 am I've posited this question in other threads, and I've yet to see a satisfying answer, though I'm open to one. Suppose a country called Entrepreneurland has an inherent entrepreneurial advantage over the weighted average of the rest of the global market. Whatever the right theoretical level of all the variables for successful startups to establish and become highly profitable - social, political, availability of capital, access to talent, etc - suppose that Enterpreneurland has them all in better proportions than the rest of the global market. Such that future highly profitable startups/corporations, which don't exist yet and so aren't investable yet, are more likely to be established in Entrepreneurland. Would one not expect Entrepreneurland to outperform the global market index in the future, based on those future highly profitable companies that don't exist yet and so aren't investible yet in the current index?
My only comment is that it seems the most likely companies that do not yet exist would be considered micro-cap value as they start up and sort out their growing pains and work their way up in cap size. It seems that pretty much ALL of the weight US outperformance has been carried by mega-cap growth, particularly in the technology sector. The rest of the market is pretty similar to the entire global market. The S&P 500 would presumably exclude the companies in your hypothetical, yet has still been the main driver of the performance gap for a while. I'm just not sure how much steam those start-ups can really provide at their market weight until they become large caps themselves.
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
Looks like VTI has returned about twice as much as VXUS at the half way point.....
VTI 48%, VXUS 12%, BND 40%
Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
Yep.. there's still time, but this is not looking good. The past week especially has been a K shaped market!
Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
Let's simplify the question.UpsetRaptor wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 9:43 amI've posited this question in other threads, and I've yet to see a satisfying answer, though I'm open to one. Suppose a country called Entrepreneurland has an inherent entrepreneurial advantage over the weighted average of the rest of the global market. Whatever the right theoretical level of all the variables for successful startups to establish and become highly profitable - social, political, availability of capital, access to talent, etc - suppose that Enterpreneurland has them all in better proportions than the rest of the global market. Such that future highly profitable startups/corporations, which don't exist yet and so aren't investable yet, are more likely to be established in Entrepreneurland. Would one not expect Entrepreneurland to outperform the global market index in the future, based on those future highly profitable companies that don't exist yet and so aren't investible yet in the current index?bogledogle87 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 9:22 amI with you 100% on both points.
In order to justify a prediction of continued & prolonged future outperformance, one would need to be able to articulate specific factors that are present, or will be present, that are not priced into the market today. They would need to know exactly why they are not yet priced in. They would be remiss to only reference backward-looking observations to explain previous performance to extrapolate forward. They would logically have to present some information that is either not yet known or believed by the average aggregate global investor, currently. This information should likely not be observations that everyone already agrees with, because if they were, they would be part of today's price. This the paradox.
Let's say we KNOW Corp A. is going to have a $10 earnings per share, forever.
Let's say we KNOW Corp B. is going to have $10 earnings per share this year, and every year thereafter it will double.
Can an efficient market price the shares of each corporation such that each one is equally attractive to buy?
One part of me wants to say "yes" because calculating net present value is easy.. if the time value of money is x%, and you expect to get $y in z years, then the net present value of that is (1-x)^z * y
But what if there's an investment whose returns will increase by more than x every year? isn't the net present value of that infinite?
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
I'll add just a very slight complication to the simplification.Tamalak wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 12:22 pm
Let's simplify the question.
Let's say we KNOW Corp A. is going to have a $10 earnings per share, forever.
Let's say we KNOW Corp B. is going to have $10 earnings per share this year, and every year thereafter it will double.
Can an efficient market price the shares of each corporation such that each one is equally attractive to buy?
One part of me wants to say "yes" because calculating net present value is easy.. if the time value of money is x%, and you expect to get $y in z years, then the net present value of that is (1-x)^z * y
But what if there's an investment whose returns will increase by more than x every year? isn't the net present value of that infinite?
What happens with we BELIEVE we KNOW Corp B's EPS will double or more every year - Exponential price increase? What happens when it suddenly doesn't years down the line?
Maybe some companies, or dare I say, an entire sector or country could be preemptively stealing future returns
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
Down 17-7 halfway through the 3rd Quarter. Too bad this isn't actual football where the offense can throw a couple of touchdowns on the board quickly. Not looking promising for 2021!
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
Thankfully some of us manage to choose to bet on both teams at the same timebogledogle87 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 20, 2021 9:47 am Down 17-7 halfway through the 3rd Quarter. Too bad this isn't actual football where the offense can throw a couple of touchdowns on the board quickly. Not looking promising for 2021!
Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
I'm surprised the gap between U.S. and Ex-US. is this large so far in 2021. Fed tapering may only fuel that gap further.
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
I am also surprised but I think COVID, the Fed, and the global supply chain issues are distorting just about everything at the moment. Nothing at all is rational. This post may have simply been a year or so too soon.
I’m still bullish on ex-us for the 2020’s decade overall. Not that it matters if I’m right or not because I don’t bet on anything except the total world index.
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
Good time to buy while others are fearful. exUS dealing with a double whammy of being harder hit by Covid plus China fears. I think it's noise and best to just stay the course.bogledogle87 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:35 pmI am also surprised but I think COVID, the Fed, and the global supply chain issues are distorting just about everything at the moment. Nothing at all is rational. This post may have simply been a year or so too soon.
I’m still bullish on ex-us for the 2020’s decade overall. Not that it matters if I’m right or not because I don’t bet on anything except the total world index.
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
[pardon if this has been discussed in this or the thread referenced above]InvestorNewb wrote: ↑Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:56 pm Today is the first trading day of the year.
I have a prediction that the international stock market will outperform the US stock market in 2021.
This thread will be revisited on 12/31/2021 to show the genius that I am.
Keep in mind that I've been correct before and I will be correct again.
What led you to predict the 2020 new-highs (thread above), and what led you to think ex-US would outperform in 2021?
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
I’ll take some of that action. Private message me we can make a private wager? Say 10k usd? Sorry that’s the only currency I use.InvestorNewb wrote: ↑Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:56 pm Today is the first trading day of the year.
I have a prediction that the international stock market will outperform the US stock market in 2021.
This thread will be revisited on 12/31/2021 to show the genius that I am.
Keep in mind that I've been correct before and I will be correct again.
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021
will the cycling continue?