International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

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Triple digit golfer
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by Triple digit golfer »

I gotta say, I am tempted to bump my ex-U.S. allocation from 30% to 35-40% of equities.

I've held 30% as long as I've been investing. I chose 30% because that is what many Bogleheads recommended at the time. At that time, Vanguard and others were all around 20%, if I recall. Now they're all 35-40%.

If buying high is the worst thing an investor can do, then logically speaking, if I sell some U.S. to buy international and move to 35-40% ex-U.S., am I doing any harm? Likely not.

Still hard to pull the trigger on a change, though. I could compromise and direct new contributions to international until I'm there. If levels stayed the same as they are now, it would take me about 15 months of contributing only to ex-U.S. to get to 35%.
dkturner
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by dkturner »

I hope you’re right. We doubled our international allocation (from 12% to 25%) from August to November of 2020.
Independent George
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by Independent George »

I went VTWAX last year, and no longer worry about it.
asif408
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by asif408 »

FIREchief wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 2:27 pm
3funder wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 1:44 pm I'm 50/50 US/International. Pretty difficult to screw this one up over the long haul.
OTOH, such a strategy guarantees that you'll have half your money in the "loser" every year. The dark side of diversification.... :twisted:
Seems like the bright side of diversification, as it beats putting everything in the "loser".
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danbdzs
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by danbdzs »

I also enjoy the OP's sense of humour.
Want this to be right so we have more of it next year :)
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FIREchief
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by FIREchief »

asif408 wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 3:12 pm
FIREchief wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 2:27 pm
3funder wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 1:44 pm I'm 50/50 US/International. Pretty difficult to screw this one up over the long haul.
OTOH, such a strategy guarantees that you'll have half your money in the "loser" every year. The dark side of diversification.... :twisted:
Seems like the bright side of diversification, as it beats putting everything in the "loser".
touche' :D

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Indexer8520
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by Indexer8520 »

I will add to this prediction. International will outperform US in 2021 and there will be massive inflows into international funds towards the end up the year. Lots of people increasing their international allocations. Then the US will outperform for the next 5 years :D
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by loukycpa »

I can buy a "VTSAX and Chill" sweatshirt and t-shirt on Amazon. There isn't a "VTWAX and Chill" version available yet, but I positioned my portfolio in anticipation anyway.
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lostdog
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by lostdog »

loukycpa wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 4:49 pm I can buy a "VTSAX and Chill" sweatshirt and t-shirt on Amazon. There isn't a "VTWAX and Chill" version available yet, but I positioned my portfolio in anticipation anyway.
VT(WAX) and chill. :beer
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qwertyjazz
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by qwertyjazz »

This also holds for a 99% drop in US and only a 98% in International
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02nz
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by 02nz »

I hope you're right. For the stock portion of my portfolio, I'm currently 30/70 U.S./int'l (not a change I made based on this thread, just to be clear).
3funder
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by 3funder »

FIREchief wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 2:27 pm
3funder wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 1:44 pm I'm 50/50 US/International. Pretty difficult to screw this one up over the long haul.
OTOH, such a strategy guarantees that you'll have half your money in the "loser" every year. The dark side of diversification.... :twisted:
Indeed; works for me!
Global stocks, US bonds, and time.
bogledogle87
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by bogledogle87 »

2.75% lead at the open of the third trading day. OP off to a pretty solid start on this one.
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Tamalak
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by Tamalak »

3funder wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 8:17 am
FIREchief wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 2:27 pm
3funder wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 1:44 pm I'm 50/50 US/International. Pretty difficult to screw this one up over the long haul.
OTOH, such a strategy guarantees that you'll have half your money in the "loser" every year. The dark side of diversification.... :twisted:
Indeed; works for me!
Diversification: if you hate it, that means it's working!
3funder
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by 3funder »

Tamalak wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 8:44 am
3funder wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 8:17 am
FIREchief wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 2:27 pm
3funder wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 1:44 pm I'm 50/50 US/International. Pretty difficult to screw this one up over the long haul.
OTOH, such a strategy guarantees that you'll have half your money in the "loser" every year. The dark side of diversification.... :twisted:
Indeed; works for me!
Diversification: if you hate it, that means it's working!
Not to go off track here, but I prefer to remain stateside when it comes to bonds.
Global stocks, US bonds, and time.
esteen
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by esteen »

loukycpa wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 4:49 pm I can buy a "VTSAX and Chill" sweatshirt and t-shirt on Amazon. There isn't a "VTWAX and Chill" version available yet, but I positioned my portfolio in anticipation anyway.
Thank you for bringing the existence of these t-shirts to my attention :)

I'm rooting for you OP.
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simplesimon
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by simplesimon »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 2:51 pm I gotta say, I am tempted to bump my ex-U.S. allocation from 30% to 35-40% of equities.

I've held 30% as long as I've been investing. I chose 30% because that is what many Bogleheads recommended at the time. At that time, Vanguard and others were all around 20%, if I recall. Now they're all 35-40%.

If buying high is the worst thing an investor can do, then logically speaking, if I sell some U.S. to buy international and move to 35-40% ex-U.S., am I doing any harm? Likely not.

Still hard to pull the trigger on a change, though. I could compromise and direct new contributions to international until I'm there. If levels stayed the same as they are now, it would take me about 15 months of contributing only to ex-U.S. to get to 35%.
I allocate by market cap. International allocation has been creeping downwards the last decade, but that's fine...I don't tilt.
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HalfMillionaire
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by HalfMillionaire »

I made the same prediction in the Soaring thread - VXUS will outperform VTI in 2021.

I am 50% Intl Stocks. My money is where my mouth is.
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HalfMillionaire
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by HalfMillionaire »

lostdog wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 5:30 pm
loukycpa wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 4:49 pm I can buy a "VTSAX and Chill" sweatshirt and t-shirt on Amazon. There isn't a "VTWAX and Chill" version available yet, but I positioned my portfolio in anticipation anyway.
VT(WAX) and chill. :beer
I would buy this T-Shirt.
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KyleAAA
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by KyleAAA »

Looks like it might come down to the wire. International behind, but within striking distance. Are we doubling down?
Johnathon Livingston
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by Johnathon Livingston »

KyleAAA wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 11:47 am Looks like it might come down to the wire. International behind, but within striking distance. Are we doubling down?
About d@mn time international does something. Been buying those duds for 10+ years waiting for a payoff.
Nathan Drake
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by Nathan Drake »

KyleAAA wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 11:47 am Looks like it might come down to the wire. International behind, but within striking distance. Are we doubling down?
Still more than half the year to go. A lot can change. But they've basically been about even so far. Greater International recovery from Covid should help push international a bit since US was a bit ahead.
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bogledogle87
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by bogledogle87 »

Down roughly 16-10 at halftime... Can International still pull off a heroic comeback!? Got any secret weapons on the bench or trick plays we don't know about yet?
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whereskyle
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by whereskyle »

bogledogle87 wrote: Fri Jul 02, 2021 6:43 am Down roughly 16-10 at halftime... Can International still pull off a heroic comeback!? Got any secret weapons on the bench or trick plays we don't know about yet?
Pretty much every piece of economic news out of China has been underwhelming this year. Seems like every country is still just following the US's lead. When everyone's most bullish on Europe, I think it's fair to expect the US to win another year... again.
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by Stinky »

whereskyle wrote: Fri Jul 02, 2021 6:55 am When everyone's most bullish on Europe, I think it's fair to expect the US to win another year... again.
As they say in sports, “There’s always next year ……..”
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by sureshoe »

As someone who holds around 20% international, I'm wondering > the US has traditionally outperfromed International. I've googled a bit on this, but not sure what the prevailing theory is as to why. Is it just that we have traditionally been the biggest market and US companies have easier access to that market? And while China is catching up, it still is typically more closed and less open?
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by Rainmaker41 »

loukycpa wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 4:49 pm I can buy a "VTSAX and Chill" sweatshirt and t-shirt on Amazon. There isn't a "VTWAX and Chill" version available yet, but I positioned my portfolio in anticipation anyway.
Looks like there is!

VTWAX and Chill FIRE Financial independence Raglan Baseball Tee https://www.amazon.com/dp/B08SLFNZFX/re ... 3BNW8BZ9VV
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Da5id
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by Da5id »

As someone who is 60/40 US/ex-US, I'm better off if US has higher returns, but ok either way. Which asset class wins this year or this decade isn't very important to me.

Got to say the whole horse race metaphor for asset classes you have chosen to invest in is probably bad for investor mentality. Feeds into FOMO, makes it harder to stay the course.
Last edited by Da5id on Fri Jul 02, 2021 7:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
Somethingwitty92912
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by Somethingwitty92912 »

InvestorNewb wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:56 pm Today is the first trading day of the year.

I have a prediction that the international stock market will outperform the US stock market in 2021.

This thread will be revisited on 12/31/2021 to show the genius that I am.

Keep in mind that I've been correct before and I will be correct again.
It’s interesting that you are just like ex us… I mean come in prognosticator of prognosticator why not pick the individual nation… while your at it pick the stock?

S&p500 all the way.
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by whereskyle »

sureshoe wrote: Fri Jul 02, 2021 7:14 am As someone who holds around 20% international, I'm wondering > the US has traditionally outperfromed International. I've googled a bit on this, but not sure what the prevailing theory is as to why. Is it just that we have traditionally been the biggest market and US companies have easier access to that market? And while China is catching up, it still is typically more closed and less open?
Right now, I think it's as simple as this: Apple, Amazon, Alphabet (Google), and Facebook, companies that have recently powered the US's outperformance, are incredibly well-managed companies providing state of the art goods and services that people everywhere want. Each of these companies benefits immensely from robust IP protections that are secured and enforced by US laws and regulations.

I think the answer is company-specific, although I agree with Buffett that you shouldn't bet against the US. We can and do argue endlessly about whether the US's political and or legal system benefits US companies especially. I think it is absolutely clear that American global corporate power is a salient political issue on the minds of pretty much everyone in the US political apparatus. But this is arguably the case in most other countries as well.
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bogledogle87
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by bogledogle87 »

whereskyle wrote: Fri Jul 02, 2021 7:23 am Right now, I think it's as simple as this: Apple, Amazon, Alphabet (Google), and Facebook, companies that have recently powered the US's outperformance, are incredibly well-managed companies providing state of the art goods and services that people everywhere want. Each of these companies benefits immensely from robust IP protections that are secured and enforced by US laws and regulations.
The paradox here is that presumably every investor already knows this. Has this already been or yet-to-be priced in to the market - or somehow both? Do these observations only explain an impressive recent performance, yet still set the stage for outperformance to persist?

For these companies to continue their run, they must surprise to the upside by exceeding the already lofty expectations priced in today. I have my doubts that there is a lot of steam left there - but have been wrong before. Momentum is extremely powerful - until suddenly it's not.
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by sureshoe »

bogledogle87 wrote: Fri Jul 02, 2021 8:00 am
whereskyle wrote: Fri Jul 02, 2021 7:23 am Right now, I think it's as simple as this: Apple, Amazon, Alphabet (Google), and Facebook, companies that have recently powered the US's outperformance, are incredibly well-managed companies providing state of the art goods and services that people everywhere want. Each of these companies benefits immensely from robust IP protections that are secured and enforced by US laws and regulations.
The paradox here is that presumably every investor already knows this. Has this already been or yet-to-be priced in to the market - or somehow both? Do these observations only explain an impressive recent performance, yet still set the stage for outperformance to persist?

For these companies to continue their run, they must surprise to the upside by exceeding the already lofty expectations priced in today. I have my doubts that there is a lot of steam left there - but have been wrong before. Momentum is extremely powerful - until suddenly it's not.
I'm correct in saying that the US has been outperforming International for a very long time... if not forever, right? So it's not just these stocks either.

It feels there is some material advantage that should be apparent, but apparently is not.
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JoMoney
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by JoMoney »

bogledogle87 wrote: Fri Jul 02, 2021 8:00 am... Momentum is extremely powerful - until suddenly it's not.
Momentum can be while moving up or down, often even with more force when heading down. Trend traders trade with the trend whichever way it's going, they run into problems in choppy markets, getting whip-sawed repeatedly when there is no real force moving in either direction.
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by bogledogle87 »

sureshoe wrote: Fri Jul 02, 2021 8:14 am I'm correct in saying that the US has been outperforming International for a very long time... if not forever, right? So it's not just these stocks either.

It feels there is some material advantage that should be apparent, but apparently is not.
I with you 100% on both points.

In order to justify a prediction of continued & prolonged future outperformance, one would need to be able to articulate specific factors that are present, or will be present, that are not priced into the market today. They would need to know exactly why they are not yet priced in. They would be remiss to only reference backward-looking observations to explain previous performance to extrapolate forward. They would logically have to present some information that is either not yet known or believed by the average aggregate global investor, currently. This information should likely not be observations that everyone already agrees with, because if they were, they would be part of today's price. This the paradox.
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UpsetRaptor
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by UpsetRaptor »

bogledogle87 wrote: Fri Jul 02, 2021 9:22 am
sureshoe wrote: Fri Jul 02, 2021 8:14 am I'm correct in saying that the US has been outperforming International for a very long time... if not forever, right? So it's not just these stocks either.

It feels there is some material advantage that should be apparent, but apparently is not.
I with you 100% on both points.

In order to justify a prediction of continued & prolonged future outperformance, one would need to be able to articulate specific factors that are present, or will be present, that are not priced into the market today. They would need to know exactly why they are not yet priced in. They would be remiss to only reference backward-looking observations to explain previous performance to extrapolate forward. They would logically have to present some information that is either not yet known or believed by the average aggregate global investor, currently. This information should likely not be observations that everyone already agrees with, because if they were, they would be part of today's price. This the paradox.
I've posited this question in other threads, and I've yet to see a satisfying answer, though I'm open to one. Suppose a country called Entrepreneurland has an inherent entrepreneurial advantage over the weighted average of the rest of the global market. Whatever the right theoretical level of all the variables for successful startups to establish and become highly profitable - social, political, availability of capital, access to talent, etc - suppose that Enterpreneurland has them all in better proportions than the rest of the global market. Such that future highly profitable startups/corporations, which don't exist yet and so aren't investable yet, are more likely to be established in Entrepreneurland. Would one not expect Entrepreneurland to outperform the global market index in the future, based on those future highly profitable companies that don't exist yet and so aren't investible yet in the current index?
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by bogledogle87 »

UpsetRaptor wrote: Fri Jul 02, 2021 9:43 am I've posited this question in other threads, and I've yet to see a satisfying answer, though I'm open to one. Suppose a country called Entrepreneurland has an inherent entrepreneurial advantage over the weighted average of the rest of the global market. Whatever the right theoretical level of all the variables for successful startups to establish and become highly profitable - social, political, availability of capital, access to talent, etc - suppose that Enterpreneurland has them all in better proportions than the rest of the global market. Such that future highly profitable startups/corporations, which don't exist yet and so aren't investable yet, are more likely to be established in Entrepreneurland. Would one not expect Entrepreneurland to outperform the global market index in the future, based on those future highly profitable companies that don't exist yet and so aren't investible yet in the current index?
You've framed this question is a very interesting way, especially relative to the firepower of companies they do not exist yet. I can't answer this hypothetical question with any level of confidence.

My only comment is that it seems the most likely companies that do not yet exist would be considered micro-cap value as they start up and sort out their growing pains and work their way up in cap size. It seems that pretty much ALL of the weight US outperformance has been carried by mega-cap growth, particularly in the technology sector. The rest of the market is pretty similar to the entire global market. The S&P 500 would presumably exclude the companies in your hypothetical, yet has still been the main driver of the performance gap for a while. I'm just not sure how much steam those start-ups can really provide at their market weight until they become large caps themselves.
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by Nathan Drake »

bogledogle87 wrote: Fri Jul 02, 2021 11:50 am
UpsetRaptor wrote: Fri Jul 02, 2021 9:43 am I've posited this question in other threads, and I've yet to see a satisfying answer, though I'm open to one. Suppose a country called Entrepreneurland has an inherent entrepreneurial advantage over the weighted average of the rest of the global market. Whatever the right theoretical level of all the variables for successful startups to establish and become highly profitable - social, political, availability of capital, access to talent, etc - suppose that Enterpreneurland has them all in better proportions than the rest of the global market. Such that future highly profitable startups/corporations, which don't exist yet and so aren't investable yet, are more likely to be established in Entrepreneurland. Would one not expect Entrepreneurland to outperform the global market index in the future, based on those future highly profitable companies that don't exist yet and so aren't investible yet in the current index?
You've framed this question is a very interesting way, especially relative to the firepower of companies they do not exist yet. I can't answer this hypothetical question with any level of confidence.

My only comment is that it seems the most likely companies that do not yet exist would be considered micro-cap value as they start up and sort out their growing pains and work their way up in cap size. It seems that pretty much ALL of the weight US outperformance has been carried by mega-cap growth, particularly in the technology sector. The rest of the market is pretty similar to the entire global market. The S&P 500 would presumably exclude the companies in your hypothetical, yet has still been the main driver of the performance gap for a while. I'm just not sure how much steam those start-ups can really provide at their market weight until they become large caps themselves.
And yet the historical record indicates that it’s not the hot growth stocks or new companies in aggregate that have the best returns; it’s the existing companies that are smaller, have gone through bad times and are presently unloved and undervalued. These stocks have inherently more risk and investors have a behavioral bias against them because they are boring companies nobody knows about compared to the glamorous tech stocks.
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gwe67
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by gwe67 »

Looks like VTI has returned about twice as much as VXUS at the half way point.....
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Tamalak
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by Tamalak »

Yep.. there's still time, but this is not looking good. The past week especially has been a K shaped market!
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by Tamalak »

UpsetRaptor wrote: Fri Jul 02, 2021 9:43 am
bogledogle87 wrote: Fri Jul 02, 2021 9:22 am
sureshoe wrote: Fri Jul 02, 2021 8:14 am I'm correct in saying that the US has been outperforming International for a very long time... if not forever, right? So it's not just these stocks either.

It feels there is some material advantage that should be apparent, but apparently is not.
I with you 100% on both points.

In order to justify a prediction of continued & prolonged future outperformance, one would need to be able to articulate specific factors that are present, or will be present, that are not priced into the market today. They would need to know exactly why they are not yet priced in. They would be remiss to only reference backward-looking observations to explain previous performance to extrapolate forward. They would logically have to present some information that is either not yet known or believed by the average aggregate global investor, currently. This information should likely not be observations that everyone already agrees with, because if they were, they would be part of today's price. This the paradox.
I've posited this question in other threads, and I've yet to see a satisfying answer, though I'm open to one. Suppose a country called Entrepreneurland has an inherent entrepreneurial advantage over the weighted average of the rest of the global market. Whatever the right theoretical level of all the variables for successful startups to establish and become highly profitable - social, political, availability of capital, access to talent, etc - suppose that Enterpreneurland has them all in better proportions than the rest of the global market. Such that future highly profitable startups/corporations, which don't exist yet and so aren't investable yet, are more likely to be established in Entrepreneurland. Would one not expect Entrepreneurland to outperform the global market index in the future, based on those future highly profitable companies that don't exist yet and so aren't investible yet in the current index?
Let's simplify the question.

Let's say we KNOW Corp A. is going to have a $10 earnings per share, forever.

Let's say we KNOW Corp B. is going to have $10 earnings per share this year, and every year thereafter it will double.

Can an efficient market price the shares of each corporation such that each one is equally attractive to buy?

One part of me wants to say "yes" because calculating net present value is easy.. if the time value of money is x%, and you expect to get $y in z years, then the net present value of that is (1-x)^z * y

But what if there's an investment whose returns will increase by more than x every year? isn't the net present value of that infinite? :confused
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by bogledogle87 »

Tamalak wrote: Fri Jul 02, 2021 12:22 pm
Let's simplify the question.

Let's say we KNOW Corp A. is going to have a $10 earnings per share, forever.

Let's say we KNOW Corp B. is going to have $10 earnings per share this year, and every year thereafter it will double.

Can an efficient market price the shares of each corporation such that each one is equally attractive to buy?

One part of me wants to say "yes" because calculating net present value is easy.. if the time value of money is x%, and you expect to get $y in z years, then the net present value of that is (1-x)^z * y

But what if there's an investment whose returns will increase by more than x every year? isn't the net present value of that infinite? :confused
I'll add just a very slight complication to the simplification.

What happens with we BELIEVE we KNOW Corp B's EPS will double or more every year - Exponential price increase? What happens when it suddenly doesn't years down the line?

Maybe some companies, or dare I say, an entire sector or country could be preemptively stealing future returns
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bogledogle87
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by bogledogle87 »

Down 17-7 halfway through the 3rd Quarter. Too bad this isn't actual football where the offense can throw a couple of touchdowns on the board quickly. Not looking promising for 2021!
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Da5id
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by Da5id »

bogledogle87 wrote: Fri Aug 20, 2021 9:47 am Down 17-7 halfway through the 3rd Quarter. Too bad this isn't actual football where the offense can throw a couple of touchdowns on the board quickly. Not looking promising for 2021!
Thankfully some of us manage to choose to bet on both teams at the same time :)
DB2
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by DB2 »

I'm surprised the gap between U.S. and Ex-US. is this large so far in 2021. Fed tapering may only fuel that gap further.
visualguy
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by visualguy »

DB2 wrote: Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:02 pm I'm surprised the gap between U.S. and Ex-US. is this large so far in 2021. Fed tapering may only fuel that gap further.
Ex-US is mostly Europe, Japan, and China. I don't know why the gap would be surprising - same old issues.
bogledogle87
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by bogledogle87 »

DB2 wrote: Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:02 pm I'm surprised the gap between U.S. and Ex-US. is this large so far in 2021. Fed tapering may only fuel that gap further.
I am also surprised but I think COVID, the Fed, and the global supply chain issues are distorting just about everything at the moment. Nothing at all is rational. This post may have simply been a year or so too soon.

I’m still bullish on ex-us for the 2020’s decade overall. Not that it matters if I’m right or not because I don’t bet on anything except the total world index. 8-)
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Nathan Drake
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by Nathan Drake »

bogledogle87 wrote: Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:35 pm
DB2 wrote: Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:02 pm I'm surprised the gap between U.S. and Ex-US. is this large so far in 2021. Fed tapering may only fuel that gap further.
I am also surprised but I think COVID, the Fed, and the global supply chain issues are distorting just about everything at the moment. Nothing at all is rational. This post may have simply been a year or so too soon.

I’m still bullish on ex-us for the 2020’s decade overall. Not that it matters if I’m right or not because I don’t bet on anything except the total world index. 8-)
Good time to buy while others are fearful. exUS dealing with a double whammy of being harder hit by Covid plus China fears. I think it's noise and best to just stay the course.
20% VOO | 20% VXUS | 20% AVUV | 20% AVDV | 20% AVES
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BuyAndHoldOn
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by BuyAndHoldOn »

InvestorNewb wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:56 pm Today is the first trading day of the year.

I have a prediction that the international stock market will outperform the US stock market in 2021.

This thread will be revisited on 12/31/2021 to show the genius that I am.

Keep in mind that I've been correct before and I will be correct again.
[pardon if this has been discussed in this or the thread referenced above]

What led you to predict the 2020 new-highs (thread above), and what led you to think ex-US would outperform in 2021?
I’d trade it all for a little more | -C Montgomery Burns
Somethingwitty92912
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by Somethingwitty92912 »

InvestorNewb wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:56 pm Today is the first trading day of the year.

I have a prediction that the international stock market will outperform the US stock market in 2021.

This thread will be revisited on 12/31/2021 to show the genius that I am.

Keep in mind that I've been correct before and I will be correct again.
I’ll take some of that action. Private message me we can make a private wager? Say 10k usd? Sorry that’s the only currency I use.
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peskypesky
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2021

Post by peskypesky »

Image

will the cycling continue?
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