2021 Hedge Fund Contest

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Tanelorn
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn »

Easy come, easy go when it comes to the various “Wall Street Bets” stocks such as GME, AMC, etc. things have settled down a lot and now the biggest winners are up only 200% or so, instead of 1500% for GME and several 100%’s for many others.

tiburblium took first place with his crypto heavy pick Microstrategy (MSTR). FOMO and Friends fund investors are up +63% and a decent lead over the pack currently.

TheoLeo remains in second place with a +47% gain. His long pick, Virgin Galactic (SPCE), has continued to perform well, now up +118% although its momentum has slowed with some recent analyst downgrades and perhaps investor caution ahead of their upcoming second attempt at a previously delayed space launch in the next week or two.

Tanelorn returned to the top ranks at +40% as his sole short pick, Chesapeake Energy (CHKAQ), is currently down following some fairly large moves in both directions last month.

You can see the full results below -

Current Standings - 2021 hedge fund contest

On the downside, I thought it was interesting that in all this crazy volatility the worse long stock picked in the contest was down a mere -14% so far. This was gun company Smith & Wesson (SWBI) that was chosen in a basket of longs by an unnamed portfolio manager who is not doing particularly poorly overall. In contrast, over a dozen short stock picks are up more than that and racking up losses for their fund investors. As I said at the start of the contest, it’s a very difficult time for short biased investments and this appears to be playing out so far. GME is still the headline example, up 220% even after falling -80% from its highs, and was picked only as a short among our contestants.
Last edited by Tanelorn on Mon Feb 22, 2021 4:17 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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MinnGuyInvesting
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by MinnGuyInvesting »

Who knew Denny's and Macy's would be rallying!
Index ETF's 45% |ARK Funds 30% | AAPL 5% | TSLA 4% | GOOGL 2% | AMZN 1.3% |Other stocks 4.5% | BTC/ETH 9% |
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timboktoo
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by timboktoo »

Tanelorn wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 7:28 am Tanelorn returned to the top ranks at +40% as his sole short pick, Chesapeake Energy (CHKAQ), is currently down following some fairly large moves in both directions last month.
I like how you talk about yourself in the third person.

timboktoo, an incredibly good looking guy, approves! ;)

- Tim
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Tanelorn
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn »

Well the indexes have been flat to slightly down in the last week or two, so let's check in on our contestants:

Tanelorn moved up to first place with +100% as his short pick, Chesapeake Energy (CHKAQ), completed their bankruptcy and in the process wiped out the old shareholders entirely.

tiburblium took moved down to second as Microstrategy (MSTR), his sole long pick, is +76%. Microstrategy sold another $1B worth of debt and used it to buy more bitcoin, further enhancing the stock's position as a crypto play.

Raymond joined the top ranks with a +54% gain. He has several picks, both long and short, but the stand out winner is PAVmed (PAVM), a medical devices company whose carpel tunnel treatment seems increasingly promising. PAVM is up 167%, nearly all of that in the last two weeks.

You can see the full results below -

Current Standings - 2021 hedge fund contest

After a period of underperformance there, our contestants have pulled ahead of the indexes in aggregate, with their average pick and average fund returns in the +5-6% area, in comparison to the benchmark gains of +2-3%. The year is still young and if last year is any guide, there will be plenty of changes and wild swings in the market before it's over.
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Tanelorn
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn »

2cents2 wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:14 pm Guaranteed Renewal Fund
Long
CELLULAR BIOMEDICINE GRP CBMG
Cellular Biomedicine Group (CBMG) has been bought out in a cash merger for $19.75 as of 2/19. Your position has been closed at the merger price for a 10% gain. Nice job.
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Tanelorn
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn »

The meme stocks are back in fashion, with big moves (although not as big as previously) in stocks like GME and AMC. This has punished some of our shorts, a number of whom had selected GME to fail, but rewarded some of the optimists who held AMC long.

Tanelorn and tiburblium hold onto their first and second spots, respectively, unchanged.

JamalJones moves up into 3rd with a +42% gain. His diversified portfolio of SOOCmpt Random Securities Ltd has a number of picks, but the long AMC pick, up 260% currently, is carrying the portfolio.

Image

You can see the full results below -

Current Standings - 2021 hedge fund contest

On the downside, several unnamed portfolio managers are seeing red across the board, a reminder that even a portfolio diversified across three long and short picks is no guarantee of positive or even average performance. The combination of a basically flat market (index +1%), difficult for longs if you picked poorly/unluckily, and wild enthusiasm for plausibly troubled short picks ala GME, AMC, M, HTZGQ, etc, has not favored fundamentally based short sellers. It’s always a stock picker’s market, but this year has not been an easy one.
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Stinky
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Stinky »

Please close out my short positions in MET and LNC.

Rising interest rates are good for life insurers. I want to close out the shorts before rates rise any more.
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Tanelorn
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn »

Stinky wrote: Sun Feb 28, 2021 11:29 am Please close out my short positions in MET and LNC.

Rising interest rates are good for life insurers. I want to close out the shorts before rates rise any more.
Done. MET covered at $59.44 for a 20% loss and LNC covered at $58.17 for a 13% loss.
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Stinky
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Stinky »

Tanelorn wrote: Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:29 pm
Stinky wrote: Sun Feb 28, 2021 11:29 am Please close out my short positions in MET and LNC.

Rising interest rates are good for life insurers. I want to close out the shorts before rates rise any more.
Done. MET covered at $59.44 for a 20% loss and LNC covered at $58.17 for a 13% loss.
I think I would be in the top 10 without those two stinkers.

Oh well ......
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
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Tanelorn
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn »

Stinky wrote: Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:33 pm I think I would be in the top 10 without those two stinkers. Oh well ......
Yes, currently you’d be around #8-10 with low +20% returns without those. I’m sure Alchemist can commiserate.
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Tanelorn
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn »

It was a tough week as bond market and inflation concerns weighed on the broader equity markets, and the tech and smaller cap sectors sold off in particular.

dumb_luck - congratulations for moving up into 2nd place. His Couch Potatoes fund features a trio of long picks in the entertainment media sector - Disney (DIS), AMC Networks (AMCX, not to be confused with the movie theatres), and Discovery (DISCA). The last two of these have been stellar performers, up 70-80% each, and bring his fund’s performance up to +54%.

Tanelorn and JamalJones remain in 1st and 3rd, at +100% and +44% respectively, largely unchanged since the last update, while the falling fortunes of crypto linked MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR) has lead to the departure of the previous 2nd place holder.

You can see the full results below -

Current Standings - 2021 hedge fund contest

Honorable mention goes to jmg229 for his Brave PP Holdings fund, who is batting 6/6 with all their travel related long picks up (airlines and cruises - RCL, DAL, LUV), while all their tech related and pandemic related short picks are down (Tesla, Zoom, and Qiagen). An impressive result and a sound +16% gain in these first two months compared to a flat overall market.
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Mudpuppy »

Tanelorn wrote: Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:37 pm It was a tough week as bond market and inflation concerns weighed on the broader equity markets, and the tech and smaller cap sectors sold off in particular.
You know, I'm just pleasantly surprised that stocks which were chosen to spell out a phrase are performing around the same as the VTI benchmark. I don't expect that to hold for the full year though.
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Vanguard Fan 1367 »

Mudpuppy wrote: Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:48 am
Tanelorn wrote: Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:37 pm It was a tough week as bond market and inflation concerns weighed on the broader equity markets, and the tech and smaller cap sectors sold off in particular.
:happy

You know, I'm just pleasantly surprised that stocks which were chosen to spell out a phrase are performing around the same as the VTI benchmark. I don't expect that to hold for the full year though.
Thanks for explaining your picks. I love your sense of humor!
John Bogle: "It's amazing how difficult it is for a man to understand something if he's paid a small fortune not to understand it."
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Vanguard Fan 1367 »

Wow! GME’s 2021 rise is pretty impressive!
John Bogle: "It's amazing how difficult it is for a man to understand something if he's paid a small fortune not to understand it."
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Tanelorn
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn »

Markets have calmed down somewhat over the past couple weeks and traded in a fairly narrow range. With individual stocks, of course, anything can happen.

JamalJones - reclaims 2nd place as his rival’s crypto related bets have suffered in the past two weeks. AMC continues to be a strong performer, still up over 300% and the best long position picked in the contest. His Couch Potatoes fund is up +63% and nearly another +10% gain since we last checked in.

Raymond - congratulations for moving up into 3rd place. His randomly generated portfolio of three stocks struck gold with the microcap PAVmed Inc. (PAVM), a medical devices and treatment company that is up 100% so far for the year. In fact they were up nearly 200% at one point but took the opportunity to raise additional capital and the stock sale at a discount last month brought them back down somewhat. Hudson Road Associates are up +32%.

You can see the full results below -

Current Standings - 2021 hedge fund contest

With the benchmark total market up around +4% at this point, it is with some regret I report that our average portfolio manager is down -4%, hence trailing the index by -7-8%. At least we have the rest of the year to make up lost ground, unlike a certain family office that, after using up to 500% leverage to bet on Asian and media stocks relative to other indexes, got a giant margin call and was nearly completely wiped out. Rule number one of actual investing - live to fight another day.
dsasdg
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by dsasdg »

average return: -4.74% < VTI +3.73%
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Tanelorn
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn »

Here are the results as of the end of Q1'21. A tough time for our fearless fund managers compared to the market (+4% YTD), but some of the ones below have done quite well for themselves and their virtual investors.

Q1'2021 Standings:
1st: +100% Tanelorn, Tanelorn Capital, sole short pick CHKAQ now worthless following their bankruptcy
2nd: +63% JamalJones, SOOCmpt Random Securities Limited, for a basket of stocks long and short, but especially long AMC
3rd: +37% tiburblium, FOMO and Friends, holding long Microstrategy (MSTR), a bitcoin play, and nothing else
4th: +35% Raymond, Hudson Road Associates, a random darts style portfolio with a big lucky winner in PAVM
5th: +30% Random Musings, If You Thought It Was Bad Now Fund, short only, both a troubled biotech and a satellite company (CALA, GTT)

Current Standings - 2021 hedge fund contest

Congratulations to all the top contenders, and if you're not there now, don't worry. A lot can happen in a year, as last year showed us!
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Mudpuppy »

dsasdg wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 3:23 am average return: -4.74% < VTI +3.73%
Isn't that sort of the whole point of this contest though? Pointing out how absurd it is to expect the average hedge fund cherry-picking stocks to outperform a broad index fund? Yes, there are some winners, but, on average, the hedge funds are trailing the broad index fund, as expected.
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn »

Mudpuppy wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 2:34 am Isn't that sort of the whole point of this contest though? Pointing out how absurd it is to expect the average hedge fund cherry-picking stocks to outperform a broad index fund? Yes, there are some winners, but, on average, the hedge funds are trailing the broad index fund, as expected.
If you can’t pick your stocks better than average, clearly you need to cherry pick your fund managers :)
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Vanguard Fan 1367 »

Tanelorn wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 3:06 am
Mudpuppy wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 2:34 am Isn't that sort of the whole point of this contest though? Pointing out how absurd it is to expect the average hedge fund cherry-picking stocks to outperform a broad index fund? Yes, there are some winners, but, on average, the hedge funds are trailing the broad index fund, as expected.
If you can’t pick your stocks better than average, clearly you need to cherry pick your fund managers :)
Yes you have done very well in the 2 years I have done the contest! You might be a good pick for 2022.
John Bogle: "It's amazing how difficult it is for a man to understand something if he's paid a small fortune not to understand it."
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Tanelorn
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn »

Vanguard Fan 1367 wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 7:24 pm Yes you have done very well in the 2 years I have done the contest! You might be a good pick for 2022.
Thanks. Surely you wouldn’t be one of those people who thinks past performance is indicative of future results? :wink: Our record in the contest was better in prior years when times were more favorable to stock pickers and short sellers in particular, but recently the competition has been more fierce.

Code: Select all

Tanelorn Capital unaudited results (short only)
57 (1st 2015)
100 (1st 2016)
94 (1st 2017)
79 (3rd 2018)
43 (7th 2019)
100 (6th 2020)
During those 6 years, SPY was up just over 100% in total (+104% or so, total return). As we at Tanelorn Capital like to say, better lucky than good!
Last edited by Tanelorn on Thu Apr 01, 2021 9:24 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn »

Mudpuppy wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 2:34 am
dsasdg wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 3:23 am average return: -4.74% < VTI +3.73%
Isn't that sort of the whole point of this contest though? Pointing out how absurd it is to expect the average hedge fund cherry-picking stocks to outperform a broad index fund? Yes, there are some winners, but, on average, the hedge funds are trailing the broad index fund, as expected.
I summarized the fund managers performance for 2020 in last years contest here in more detail, and let’s just say the average fund did a whole lot worse than the market in those exceptional times, especially on the short side.
Averaged across all stock's picked [in 2020], the average was a loss of -26% and a huge negative "alpha" of -35% or so.
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Tanelorn
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn »

The broad market has been setting new highs nearly every day the last week or so, and it’s time to check in on our contestants.

Raymond - moved up two ranks into 2nd place by a hair at +60%, as his big winner PAVmed Inc. (PAVM), a microcap medical devices firm, piled on additional 40% gains for the last two weeks, putting that stock up nearly 190%. There may be some anticipation of results to be presented at an upcoming biotech conference this coming week.

JamalJones - dropped to 3rd, just out of 2nd with +58%, as AMC stock has given up some ground in recent weeks. AMC has been talking about selling more stock to buy back or retire their substantial debts and stabilize their business until the economy opens up more. As someone said, these days it’s easy to sell shares than movie tickets.

You can see the full results below -

Current Standings - 2021 hedge fund contest

The broad market is performing strongly and is now up +8%, while our average fund manager has languished with a near zero return (before fees). Thus the average fund is trailing the index benchmark by some -7-8%.
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Raymond »

A shout-out to the Hudson Road Associates analyst team:

Bonnie Bonobo, Baker Langur, and Gordo Tamarin, using our proprietary Plumbata technology platform.
"Ritter, Tod und Teufel"
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Vanguard Fan 1367 »

Interesting to see JamalJones take over first place!
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Tanelorn
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn »

A belated congratulations to JamalJones for taking a commanding 1st place lead! His prescient choice of AMC is now up over 2000%, from the low $2’s and facing a lockdown-induced bankruptcy, to hitting recent highs a few weeks back of over $70, recently settling around $40-50. When the Wall Street Bets crowd decides it loves your stock, all bets are off for where it might go. Even as part of his diversified portfolio, SOOCmpt Random Securities Limited investors are up around 360%!

Tanelorn and Raymond continue to share the rest of the top ranks at 2nd (+100%) and 3rd (+58%) respectively, largely unchanged for some time now. You can see the full results below -

Current Standings - 2021 hedge fund contest

You can see the recent price movements in AMC stock below.

Image

The large majority of AMC shares are now owned by retail investors and the stock has a $20-30B market cap depending on the whims of the traders on any given day. Their stock has traded more dollar volume than SPY on several days, and now accounts for some 10% of all options trading activity in the US markets in recent weeks.

To say this is unprecedented would be understating the extreme unusualness of this situation. The company sold the last of their authorized shares, some 43M or so, at about $50/share and raised another $200M or so. They did this before noon on a single day after reporting earnings. The CEO is taking a leaf out of Elon Musk / Tesla’s page and engaging personally with his investors via Twitter, and recently have an interview which you can read below. The “Apes” are apparently fairly approving of his efforts on their behalf.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data ... efa14a.htm
Thanks everybody, to all the apes out there, welcome back to Trey’s Trades, coming on here again to give you guys the second interview for [AMC CEO] Adam Aron. Adam, it's a pleasure to have you here. You're back again to speak with me and the rest of the apes who are here joined together for the culture of AMC stock. Hope you're having yourself a good evening...
Last edited by Tanelorn on Sun Jun 13, 2021 5:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Forester »

For 2022 it should be mandatory to nominate 3 longs and 3 shorts, one trade could be luck and just seems dishonourable somehow.
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Vanguard Fan 1367 »

Forester wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 8:01 am For 2022 it should be mandatory to nominate 3 longs and 3 shorts, one trade could be luck and just seems dishonourable somehow.
I like the current rules and will put my vote in for keeping them.
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by LadyGeek »

I also like the current rules, since I used that to my advantage for at least one year. In other years, I had the wrong direction (plus/minus math sign flipped) and went short instead of long (and vice versa). It looks like I flipped the sign this year and will fix that for next year. :)
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Stinky »

I’m a newbie to the contest, and haven’t followed it in previous years.

Does information exist on prior year results? If so, would it be possible to find out how many past winners picked just 1 stock, all 6 stocks, or somewhere in between?
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by LadyGeek »

Yes, it's in the wiki: Bogleheads® contests

Nobody has compiled stats, though.
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn »

Stinky wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 1:51 pm Does information exist on prior year results? If so, would it be possible to find out how many past winners picked just 1 stock, all 6 stocks, or somewhere in between?
See here. Most of the recent years are recorded and/or linked to the appropriate thread. Not all the spreadsheets were robust to keep the full history, although they are now for the past several years.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Bogleheads®_contests
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Mudpuppy »

Forester wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 8:01 am For 2022 it should be mandatory to nominate 3 longs and 3 shorts, one trade could be luck and just seems dishonourable somehow.
That would make my "form a song title and/or band name with stock tickers" algorithm so much harder to implement though.....
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Stinky »

LadyGeek wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 3:20 pm Yes, it's in the wiki: Bogleheads® contests

Nobody has compiled stats, though.
Thanks for pointing me to the reference.

The way I interpret the history, it looks like there have been three "eras" to the contest.

--- In the first year (2009), only one long and one short were permitted. The winner had one long position.

--- in the second era (2019-2014), there were two long and two short positions permitted. During those years, every winner fully "filled out the bracket" (that is, picked two long and two short).

--- in the third and current era (2015-2021), there are three long and three short positions permitted. Of the six completed contests, three (2015, 2016, 2018) have been been won by a person who "shorted" a single stock. One winner had one long and one short (2020), one had three long and two short (2019), and only one winner fully "filled out the bracket" (2017). (Also, the 2021 current leader has fully filled out the bracket.)

So, in the current era, there might be a minor advantage to going "all in" on just one stock. But you've got to pick the right stock ..... :twisted:
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Random Musings »

Tanelorn,

Just a heads up that GTT has been delisted by the NYSE as of close Thursday (although some premarket trades did occur).

They still have no plans to file statements and said that you can't trust prior year statements.

Not sure if they will go OTC or OTC-BB.

RM
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Random Musings »

Tanelorn,

As of 7/6/21, GTT is now trading under the symbol GTTN.

RM
I figure the odds be fifty-fifty I just might have something to say. FZ
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn »

Random Musings wrote: Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:15 pm As of 7/6/21, GTT is now trading under the symbol GTTN.
Congrats on the nice GTT short - they're not bankrupt yet, but falling over 40% today after NYSE kicked off the exchange made for a nice day for the bears. I've updated the spreadsheet for the new otc ticker GTTN. On a side note, I think OTC-BB is going away later this year as part of that SEC rampage against otc stocks (banning lots of stocks from being even quoted if they don't pay OTC Markets for the privilege of filing their financials).
mokaThought wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 11:38 pm Truculent Trucker Fund
...
Short:
NAV — Navistar Intertrashional

Note to @Tanelorn: Traton (a Volkswagen subsidiary) has agreed to acquire NAV later this year, so you will probably have to jump in manually and "freeze" NAV's price in the spreadsheet when that happens. I'm just betting on the acquisition falling through and tanking NAV's price.
The merger did indeed go through, unfortunately for your short. NAV was acquired on July 1st in a cash merger for $44.50. I updated your holding to reflect this. Not necessarily a bad trade, only losing 1% when the merger completed, if you thought there was any reasonable chance of the merger failing.
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn »

AbelArcher wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 5:55 am Compu-Global-Hyper-Mega-Net Fund

Long:
AMAZON COM INC AMZN
PAYPAL HOLDINGS INC PYPL
PELOTON INTERACTIVE PTON

Short:
MACYS INC M
HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS HTZ
GAMESTOP CORP GME
Hertz came out of bankruptcy last week after a bidding war with a very complicated but positive result for the prior bankrupt HTZGQ equity shareholders. They got $1.53 cash, about 9% of a share of new Hertz (HTZZ) and about 65% of a long term warrant on the new stock (HTZZW). A difficult story for the shorts, given the initial bankruptcy process strongly suggested the equity would be worthless and the debt impaired, but the covid/reopening recovery plus some help from the Wall Street Bettors helped propel the stock and its valuation to nearly $10 vs the lows of around $0.50. Tough break.

As all these new pieces are trading, I've managed to update the spreadsheet to reflect all 3 pieces for the combined price, even though it just lists the new common stock ticker HTZZ. If you want to cover your short in either the common HTZZ or the warrants HTZZW, just let me know and I'll freeze whichever price as of the close of market just like any other position.
Last edited by Tanelorn on Thu Jul 08, 2021 5:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by whodidntante »

I think that Tanelorn is secretly Jim Chanos, or that he would be if Tanelorn could take the pay cut.

It's nice to see Rick Ferri turn a profit. His investors were starting to form a posse. All in jest, Rick. :sharebeer
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Tanelorn
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn »

whodidntante wrote: Wed Jul 07, 2021 4:49 pm I think that Tanelorn is secretly Jim Chanos, or that he would be if Tanelorn could take the pay cut.
High praise indeed! :D

For those who don’t know Chanos, he’s a very successful short selling hedge fund manager.

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/short-s ... 40808.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Chanos
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Vanguard Fan 1367 »

Tanelorn wrote: Fri Jul 09, 2021 6:05 am
whodidntante wrote: Wed Jul 07, 2021 4:49 pm I think that Tanelorn is secretly Jim Chanos, or that he would be if Tanelorn could take the pay cut.
High praise indeed! :D

For those who don’t know Chanos, he’s a very successful short selling hedge fund manager.

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/short-s ... 40808.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Chanos

Yes. If you could do this in real life then you could make a nice living! Of course we have the example of GameStop which in real life cost 💲 a lot of money to those who shorted.
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Random Musings »

Tanelorn,

Today, please close my short position in GTTN.

I will be putting those proceeds into my new hedge fund - If You Thought Is Was Bad Now II.

RM
I figure the odds be fifty-fifty I just might have something to say. FZ
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Tanelorn
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn »

Random Musings wrote: Mon Aug 09, 2021 2:35 pm Today, please close my short position in GTTN.

I will be putting those proceeds into my new hedge fund - If You Thought Is Was Bad Now II.
Done at yesterday's close, $0.50, for an impressive 85% return on your short. Congratulations!
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn »

A quick update and congrats to Raymond for taking 2nd place with an over 100% return YTD on the back of his successful PAVM biotech pick.

Current Standings - 2021 hedge fund contest

I fixed some glitches in the spreadsheet relating to some OTC stock quotes, so that should be working again. Sorry for the lack of updates, but I’ll have a full one for the end of the quarter / this weekend.
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn »

A belated summary of the Q3'21 hedge fund contest standings. Note these were as of Sept 30th, so the ranking have changed of course since then, sometimes meaningfully.

Q3'2021 Standings:

1st: +269% JamalJones, SOOCmpt Random Securities Limited, for a basket of stocks long and short, but especially long AMC
2nd: +101% Raymond, Hudson Road Associates, a random darts style portfolio with a big lucky winner in PAVM
3rd: +100% Tanelorn, Tanelorn Capital, sole short pick CHKAQ now worthless following their bankruptcy
4th: +54% Random Musings, If You Thought It Was Bad Now Fund, short only, a troubled biotech and a satellite company (CALA, GTTNQ)
5th: +50% solar99999, a concentrated long/short fund with a successful semiconductor long as well as alt energy short

Current Standings - 2021 hedge fund contest
Last edited by Tanelorn on Sat Nov 06, 2021 10:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Alchemist »

I wonder if I get a prize for coming in a distant, dead last with negative 467%.

Shorting GME was a bad idea lol.
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by whodidntante »

Alchemist wrote: Sat Nov 06, 2021 5:44 am I wonder if I get a prize for coming in a distant, dead last with negative 467%.

Shorting GME was a bad idea lol.
Or a good idea with the wrong endpoint
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by JamalJones »

Tanelorn wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 10:42 pm Current Standings - 2021 hedge fund contest

This is the thread for the 2021 hedge fund contest. The official start of the contest will begin using Monday Jan 11th’s closing prices, so the hard cutoff for entries is 4pm ET when the market closes on Monday. I suggest trying to make up your mind by Monday morning and posting earlier so you don’t get busy during the day and forget. For reference, here is previous year's contest (2020) thread.
Is there a prize for 1st place? Looks like I’ll win this year’s contest…
TSP + Vanguard + Fidelity CMA: 80% equities / 20% bonds | "I don't shine shoes, I don’t tape ankles, I don't cut checks - straight cash homie!!" --R. Moss | Winner 2021 Hedge Fund Contest
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn »

JamalJones wrote: Fri Dec 31, 2021 1:59 pm Is there a prize for 1st place? Looks like I’ll win this year’s contest…
Congratulations to JamalJones, our 2021 winner! He nearly tripled his money in this contest, and hopefully did very well on his own as well.

2021 was an exceptional year, when multi billion dollar stocks moved with the whims of the crowd, rewarding bold long shareholders with triple digit gains or more in stocks like Gamestop (GME), AMC, and Hertz (HTZ) while putting more than a few short sellers out of business entirely. Ok, stocks are always moving with the whims of the crowd, but this year they moved a whole lot more than usual. Here are the final standings among the contest leaders.

Final 2021 Contest Results

1st: +191% JamalJones, SOOCmpt Random Securities Limited, for a basket of long and short picks, with more than 10x gains on AMC
2nd: +100% Tanelorn, Tanelorn Capital, for his sole short pick of Chesapeake Energy (CHKAQ), that was wiped out in bankruptcy
3rd: +92% ccf, 20/21 Vision, nearly doubling his money with a single long pick of Ambarella (AMBA), a semiconductor chip company
4th :+83% CaptainSaver, Monkey Dart Holdings LLC, with a pair of longs, a homebuilder (BLDR) and a bank (LMST) both with strong gains
5th: +81% Random Musings, If You Thought It Was Bad Now Fund, with a pair of shorts, a bankrupt internet company (GTTNQ) and a failed biotech (CALA)

Final Standings - 2021 hedge fund contest

Our leaders even beat out the big crypto gains for 2021 (bitcoin was up around 60%). In other comparisons, the total stock market index (VTI) gained +22% while inflation clocked in at +7%.

Our contestants as a whole had a difficult year, with the average stock pick coming in at -2% and the average fund returning just a hair below break-even (-0.7%), before the managers' generous fees no doubt for successfully preserving nearly all of their investors capital during these turbulent times. Needless to say, this underperformed the market's gains by around 20%. Yes, these statistics were skewed by the very large gains and losses from the highly volatile outcomes in individual stocks like GME, AMC, Hertz (HTZ, up 10x after surprisingly surviving their bankruptcy), but still it wasn't a good year for the collective stock pickers. Speaking of a bad year, 4 of our unfortunate fund managers are busy hiding not only from their investors, who were wiped out entirely, but from their brokers as well who they owe significant amounts of money to for unmet margin calls. These fund's had losses that ranged from -125% to -340%.

Thank you all for your participation and congratulations again to all top managers! To those who found them at the bottom of the ranks, take heart and know that if only you had reversed your longs and shorts, you could have taken first place by a large margin. Perhaps these managers should consider a more contrarian approach to their thinking next year. I was also heartened to see a wide range of strategies employed by those in the top ranks of the contest - diversified long/short took home the prize, but those with a pure long or pure short approach, sometimes diversified across several picks, also performed quite respectably. As we might paraphrase, in the activist investing world, there are many roads to El Dorado :).
Last edited by Tanelorn on Sun Jan 02, 2022 6:22 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by LadyGeek »

The wiki has been updated for 2021 results: Bogleheads® contests

2022 entries will be updated when the info is posted.
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